CREO2019 End use outlook

1. China Renewable Energy Outlook 2019
Deep electrification and renewable energy
promote low-carbon end-use of energy
ZHAOYongqiang
Deputy Director, Energy Research Institute of China Academy of Macroeconomic Research/National Development and Reform Commission
China National Renewable Energy Centre
12.12.19
China Renewable Energy
Outlook
2019Energ
y R
ese
arc
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of Academ
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h/N
DRC
Chin
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ational Renewable E
nerg
y C
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3. 0%
20%
40%
60%
Further EE potential under B2 scenario
EE potnetial under SP scenario
0%
100%
200%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
heavy industry
Cement Steel Copper
Aluminum Ammonia Soda ash
Caustic Soda Calcium Carbide Ethylene
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
light industry
Food Textile
Paper Machinery manufacturing
Transport Equipment Electrical Machinery
Output changes for different industrial branches Energy efficiency improvement potentials
industrial restructuring and Energy Efficiency Improvemnt

4. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
%
BF/BOF,SP EAF,SP BF/BOF,B2 EAF,B2
EAF（电弧炉） shares
under Stated policies and Below 2 °C scenarios
0
20
40
60
80
100
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
%
Electrolytic Aluminium, B2 Electrolytic Aluminium, SP
Recycled Aluminium, B2 Recycled Aluminium, SP
Recycled aluminum shares
under Stated policies and Below 2 °C scenarios
Source recycling bring efficiency and higher electrification
By increasing scrap-based EAF steel share from the current 13% to 50% in the Stated Policies scenario, 60 Mtce could
be saved. If this rate is further raised to 65% under the Below 2 °C scenario, another 35 Mtce could be saved.

5. 408 416
97 96
201 134
200
150
380
356
207
207
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2050 before device shifting 2050 after device shifting
Others
High tem process heat
Mid tem process heat
Low tem process heat
Steam
Drivers
Industrial heat demand in different temperature
in end-use
More low-temperature process heat will be provided by direct renewables and electricity:
• solar heaters, biomass boilers and electric heat pumps will replace the current coal boilers;
• for the medium-and high-temperature heat, natural gas boiler/furnaces and electricity-driven devices will replace the current
coal boilers/furnaces.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
20182020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mtce
Solar Biomass MSW
Industrial renewable energy consumption
in the in Below 2 °C scenario
shift of process heating equipment facilitates transition to clean energy

6. 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Drivers Steam Low tem
process
heat
Mid tem
process
heat
High tem
process
heat
Others Drivers Steam Low tem
process
heat
Mid tem
process
heat
High tem
process
heat
Others
2050 before device shifting 2050 after device shifting
Coal NG Oil Electricity District heating Hydrogen Renewables
higher share of electricity and renewable after devices shifting

7. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
%
Scrap-based EAF SP H-reduced iron-EAF SP BF/BOF SP
Scrap-based EAF-B2 H-reduced iron-EAF B2 BF/BOF B2
steel-making technologies’ share in the two scenarios
The share of hydrogen involved steel will peak around 2035,
accounting 30% in Below 2 °C scenario and 8 % in Stated Polices
scenario, and then drop to 15% and 4% respectively in the two
scenarios, due to the development of steel recycling and scrap-based
steel production.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048
%
Green hydrogen based ammonia SP Green hydrogen based ammonia B2
Natural gas based ammonia SP Natural gas based ammonia B2
Coal based ammonia SP Coal based ammonia B2
aluminum production technologies’ share in two scenarios
share of hydrogen-based ammonia will grow to 30% by
2050. In the Below 2 °C scenario, the share of hydrogen-
based ammonia will exceed coal-based by 2030, and will
finally grow to 50% by 2050.This could bring 12-14 Mtce
energy saving.
The role of hydrogen could increase industry sections

8. 75%
15% 16%
84%
15%
32%
43%
35%
47%
51%
57%
79%
22%
54%
85%
32%
45%
49% 49%
52%
66%
60%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Mtce
2018 2050 B2 2018 2050 B2
Share of electricity and electricity consumption in different industry

9. 0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
BillionPassenger-km
Air Rail
Future growth in China air and rail travel
140
800
572 591
158
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Ownership per 1000 persons in different areas
Future development trend of transport sector
China’s future car ownership expects to continue its steady
growth. By 2035, national passenger car ownership will reach
320 million; by 2050, it will reach 450 million.
With good infrastructure and good planning, the
model assumes more growth in high-speed rails
than for flights.

10. 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Oil share in
Stated
Policies
Oil share in
Below 2°C
Electricity
share in
Stated
Policies
Electricity
share in
Below 2°C
Share of Oil and electricity
in transport energy consumption
Annual sales shares of EVs
-
10
20
30
40
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Million
Electric trucks
Stated Policies
Below 2°C
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Million
Electric cars
Stated Policies
Below 2°C
Electricity will become the fast-growing fuel types in future
traffic. By2047, electricity replaces oil products as the
dominant energy in the Below 2 °C Scenario.

11. Energy consumption by fuels
in Stated Policy scenario (left) and Below 2 °C scenario (right)
The systems introduces electricity-based hydrogen, which share grows to 3% in the fuel mix in 2050 in
the Stated Policy Scenario and 19% in the Below 2 °C Scenario.

12. Changing Fuel Mix in building servicesFuture energy demand in the building sector
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Finalenergydemand/MTCE
Rural Urban Public and Commercial
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Appliances Cooking Cooling Space
heating
Lighting Hot water
Energydemand:Mtce
Electricity Heat Coal products Oil
Natural gas Renewables net growth
DH and RE replacing
Coal heating
Electricity replacing
Coal and biomass cooking
modern electric appliance clean heating drive electrification and renewable

13. Electrification
Due to the cost‐reductions in renewable
electricity supply sources, electricity becomes
an increasingly cost‐competitive energy
carrier and thereby a means to replace direct
consumption of fossil fuels.
Transport
• 2050: 39% from 2% in 2018.
Industry
• 2050: 51% from 28% in 2018
Buildings
• 2050: 58% from 30% in 2018