This document assesses the economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the aviation industry. It presents two scenarios: a limited spread scenario where countries with over 100 confirmed cases are affected, and an extensive spread scenario where those with over 10 cases see impacts. Under the limited scenario, global passenger revenues would fall $63 billion (11%). If the outbreak spreads more widely, the loss would be $113 billion (19%). Lower oil prices provide some offset, but markets expect profits to fall far more than during SARS due to China's larger economic role.
OECD: The impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on economic (Presentation)chaganomics
The impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on economic prospects is severe Growth was weak but stabilising until the coronavirus Covid-19 hit. Restrictions on movement of people, goods and services, and containment measures such as factory closures have cut manufacturing and domestic demand sharply in China. The impact on the rest of the world through business travel and tourism, supply chains, commodities and lower confidence is growing.
asia pacific 2020, the economy military global stageTASNIM ILMIARDHI
Asia Pacific is the most important region in the world economy and themost complete on the military aspects. Asia Pacific will remain the center of global economic growth. Of the ten countries that have the largest reserves in the world, eight countries are among the countries in Asia Pacific. The
rate of economic growth impact on increasing the strength of the defense and military spending, in addition to geopolitical conflicts that have a direct impact on the stability of the region. Even the increasing global geopolitical tensions, the Asia Pacific region will solidify its position as a major player in military spending in 2020.
OECD: The impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on economic (Presentation)chaganomics
The impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on economic prospects is severe Growth was weak but stabilising until the coronavirus Covid-19 hit. Restrictions on movement of people, goods and services, and containment measures such as factory closures have cut manufacturing and domestic demand sharply in China. The impact on the rest of the world through business travel and tourism, supply chains, commodities and lower confidence is growing.
asia pacific 2020, the economy military global stageTASNIM ILMIARDHI
Asia Pacific is the most important region in the world economy and themost complete on the military aspects. Asia Pacific will remain the center of global economic growth. Of the ten countries that have the largest reserves in the world, eight countries are among the countries in Asia Pacific. The
rate of economic growth impact on increasing the strength of the defense and military spending, in addition to geopolitical conflicts that have a direct impact on the stability of the region. Even the increasing global geopolitical tensions, the Asia Pacific region will solidify its position as a major player in military spending in 2020.
The Middle East & North Africa economic outlook isn't looking great for 2017, but could the region's fortunes turn around in 2018? Read our latest regional summary for MENA to find out more: http://bit.ly/2ytvybf
European Economic Forecast. Spring 2020 PresentationOndřej Hudeček
https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecasts/spring-2020-economic-forecast-deep-and-uneven-recession-uncertain-recovery
European Economy Institutional Papers are important reports analysing the economic situation and
economic developments prepared by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Economic and
Financial Affairs, which serve to underpin economic policy-making by the European Commission, the Council
of the European Union and the European Parliament.
Views expressed in unofficial documents do not necessarily represent the views of the European Commission.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for global air freight markets showing that in August 2015 freight markets stabilized after two months of decline. Measured in Freight Tonne Kilometers, air cargo volumes rose 0.2% compared to the same month a year ago. This is a modest improvement on July performance when freight demand contracted by 0.6% year-over-year.
More like this on www.transportworldafrica.co.za
We are pleased to release the April 2016 Africa Market Update covering economic trends in Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, Angola, Uganda and Rwanda. The report also includes a snapshot of the deals landscape in Africa (YTD) as well as insights into what South Sudan's admission to the East African Community portends.
Session by Gabriela Ramos, Chief of Staff, G20 Sherpa and Special Counsellor to the Secretary-General, OECD
Among the myriad challenges facing our economies, few pose greater obstacles to better economic performance than the productivity slowdown and the rise in inequalities. Are they influencing each other? OECD work on the productivity-inclusiveness nexus, presented at the 2016 OECD Ministerial Council Meeting, sets out what we know about the interactions between productivity and inclusiveness, identifies knowledge gaps, and charts win-win policies that boost productivity and tackle inequality.
Despite advances in business and technological transformations, we can no longer assume that they will automatically lead to better economic performance and stronger productivity growth. And there is no guarantee that the benefits of higher levels of growth, or higher levels of productivity in certain sectors, will be shared across the population as a whole. This session will explore how policy makers can adopt a broader, more inclusive approach to productivity growth – one that considers how to expand the productive assets of an economy by investing in individuals’ skills and providing an environment where enterprises have a fair chance to succeed, including in lagging regions, generating strong and sustainable growth and opportunities for all.
This page provide analysis of economic and policy developments affecting the financial performance of the global airline industry during the COVID-19 emergency.
Global Aviation: COVID-19 Impact and Recovery ScenariosGreg Harrison
An interesting appraisal by Arcadis UK's Global Aviation Investment Director, Crawford Burden, on COVID-19 impacts and recovery scenarios for both airlines and airports. The headwinds created by the crisis will result in structural change for the sector and a consequential impact on long term growth rates.
Arthur D. Little - Covid19 impact on automotive industry_update June 2020Fabrizio Arena
Estimates of the impact of the crisis on the automotive market continue to deteriorate with a forecast for 2020 of -22,3% compared to 2019 volumes on a global scale with key markets such as Europe and the US particularly impacted (-24,9% and -26,6% respectively). The recovery will be long and will take 2-3 years
Also prolonged factories’ shutdowns (gradually reopened between April and May) have led to a further contraction in production forecasts for 2020 (-22% compared to 2019) with a consequent negative impact on vehicles’ delivery times that are expected to add complexity to the market recovery
ICAO - Effects of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Civil AviationCiro Esposito
An interesting reading.
A very detailed analysis of the current situation and possible future scenarios.
Effects of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Civil Aviation: Economic Impact Analysis
The Middle East & North Africa economic outlook isn't looking great for 2017, but could the region's fortunes turn around in 2018? Read our latest regional summary for MENA to find out more: http://bit.ly/2ytvybf
European Economic Forecast. Spring 2020 PresentationOndřej Hudeček
https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecasts/spring-2020-economic-forecast-deep-and-uneven-recession-uncertain-recovery
European Economy Institutional Papers are important reports analysing the economic situation and
economic developments prepared by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Economic and
Financial Affairs, which serve to underpin economic policy-making by the European Commission, the Council
of the European Union and the European Parliament.
Views expressed in unofficial documents do not necessarily represent the views of the European Commission.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for global air freight markets showing that in August 2015 freight markets stabilized after two months of decline. Measured in Freight Tonne Kilometers, air cargo volumes rose 0.2% compared to the same month a year ago. This is a modest improvement on July performance when freight demand contracted by 0.6% year-over-year.
More like this on www.transportworldafrica.co.za
We are pleased to release the April 2016 Africa Market Update covering economic trends in Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, Angola, Uganda and Rwanda. The report also includes a snapshot of the deals landscape in Africa (YTD) as well as insights into what South Sudan's admission to the East African Community portends.
Session by Gabriela Ramos, Chief of Staff, G20 Sherpa and Special Counsellor to the Secretary-General, OECD
Among the myriad challenges facing our economies, few pose greater obstacles to better economic performance than the productivity slowdown and the rise in inequalities. Are they influencing each other? OECD work on the productivity-inclusiveness nexus, presented at the 2016 OECD Ministerial Council Meeting, sets out what we know about the interactions between productivity and inclusiveness, identifies knowledge gaps, and charts win-win policies that boost productivity and tackle inequality.
Despite advances in business and technological transformations, we can no longer assume that they will automatically lead to better economic performance and stronger productivity growth. And there is no guarantee that the benefits of higher levels of growth, or higher levels of productivity in certain sectors, will be shared across the population as a whole. This session will explore how policy makers can adopt a broader, more inclusive approach to productivity growth – one that considers how to expand the productive assets of an economy by investing in individuals’ skills and providing an environment where enterprises have a fair chance to succeed, including in lagging regions, generating strong and sustainable growth and opportunities for all.
This page provide analysis of economic and policy developments affecting the financial performance of the global airline industry during the COVID-19 emergency.
Global Aviation: COVID-19 Impact and Recovery ScenariosGreg Harrison
An interesting appraisal by Arcadis UK's Global Aviation Investment Director, Crawford Burden, on COVID-19 impacts and recovery scenarios for both airlines and airports. The headwinds created by the crisis will result in structural change for the sector and a consequential impact on long term growth rates.
Arthur D. Little - Covid19 impact on automotive industry_update June 2020Fabrizio Arena
Estimates of the impact of the crisis on the automotive market continue to deteriorate with a forecast for 2020 of -22,3% compared to 2019 volumes on a global scale with key markets such as Europe and the US particularly impacted (-24,9% and -26,6% respectively). The recovery will be long and will take 2-3 years
Also prolonged factories’ shutdowns (gradually reopened between April and May) have led to a further contraction in production forecasts for 2020 (-22% compared to 2019) with a consequent negative impact on vehicles’ delivery times that are expected to add complexity to the market recovery
ICAO - Effects of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Civil AviationCiro Esposito
An interesting reading.
A very detailed analysis of the current situation and possible future scenarios.
Effects of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Civil Aviation: Economic Impact Analysis
This presentation comprises key figures included in the publication OECD Competition Trends 2021 released virtually 24 February 2021 during the OECD Competition Open Day. The full publication can be found at oe.cd/comp-trends.
Covid 19 - galvanizing the travel industry for high tideChennam Mounika
The spread of the Covid-19 disease globally, caused by the coronavirus, has halted travel industry operations such as airlines, hotels and cruises across the globe. Demand for the three major segments of the global travel industries airlines, hotels and cruises has slumped to its lowest point in several years.
https://www.wnsdecisionpoint.com/our-insights/reports/detail/93/covid-19-galvanizing-the-travel-industry-for-high-tide
This page provide analysis of economic and policy developments affecting the financial performance of the global airline industry during the COVID-19 emergency.
Unlike the runways of the world, the growth trend line in the aviation sector has never been straight. Long-term growth has been punctuated by demand shocks that rein in investment and impact traffic. With investors in mind, this series of articles looks at the factors that impact aviation growth, transactions, infrastructure needs, and ultimately drive air connectivity. More: http://pwc.to/1uEPT4e
In this session, we will cover the predictions of travel including potential future regulations and recovery.
This webinar will feature;
Rob Gurney, CEO @ OneWorld
Sergio Merino, Co-Founder @ iVisa
Stig Goran Karisen Williams, Head of Partnerships @ Avis Budget Group -
The webinar is being moderated by Caroline Dal'lin, Director Of Business Development @Bidroom.
DELSA/GOV 3rd Health meeting - Christian KASTROPOECD Governance
This presentation by Christian KASTROP was made at the 3rd Joint DELSA/GOV Health Meeting, Paris 24-25 April 2014. Find out more at www.oecd.org/gov/budgeting/3rdmeetingdelsagovnetworkfiscalsustainabilityofhealthsystems2014.htm
• Owing to growth concerns, Global Central Banks are reducing interest rates. The Reserve Bank of India
(RBI) too is expected to follow suits and may deliver 25-50 bps rate cut
• Central Banks are expected to continue with the loose monetary policy
• Food inflation is beginning to see some moderation although CPI Inflation continues to remain above
RBI‟s comfort zone. RBI‟s operation twist and LTRO too bodes well for the bond markets
• In light of the above factors, we have added duration across our portfolios as we have become positive
on the duration segment in the near term
• We continue to believe that the best strategy would be to create portfolio maturity in the range of 2-5
years
• We also continue to remain positive on the accrual space, as the divergence between Gsec/AAA & AA/A
yields persist.
For the second year, the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) and Carlson Wagonlit Travel (CWT) have produced the 2016 Global Travel Price Outlook. This report is designed to assist travel buyers as they budget for and negotiate their 2016 travel programs, helping companies realize the greatest value for their travel spend. Research was conducted with assistance from Rockport Analytics, a leader in global market research and insight, and additional analysis and context was provided by experts from CWT Solutions Group, CWT’s dedicated consulting division.
Similar to COVID-19 Updated impact* assessment of the novel Coronavirus (20)
2020 04 03_osservatorio_bilanci_srl_focus_risto e alberghi-a (1)FedericaAmbrogi1
Presentiamo il quinto Focus settoriale dell'Osservatorio FNC sui bilanci 2018 delle Srl, dedicato alle imprese del settore Ristoranti e Alberghi. Considerata l'emergenza sanitaria in atto e le conseguenze rilevanti sui bilanci del settore, il focus è preceduto da una stima dell'impatto dell'emergenza coronavirus sui bilanci 2020.
Data Centers - Striving Within A Narrow Range - Research Report - MCG - May 2...pchutichetpong
M Capital Group (“MCG”) expects to see demand and the changing evolution of supply, facilitated through institutional investment rotation out of offices and into work from home (“WFH”), while the ever-expanding need for data storage as global internet usage expands, with experts predicting 5.3 billion users by 2023. These market factors will be underpinned by technological changes, such as progressing cloud services and edge sites, allowing the industry to see strong expected annual growth of 13% over the next 4 years.
Whilst competitive headwinds remain, represented through the recent second bankruptcy filing of Sungard, which blames “COVID-19 and other macroeconomic trends including delayed customer spending decisions, insourcing and reductions in IT spending, energy inflation and reduction in demand for certain services”, the industry has seen key adjustments, where MCG believes that engineering cost management and technological innovation will be paramount to success.
MCG reports that the more favorable market conditions expected over the next few years, helped by the winding down of pandemic restrictions and a hybrid working environment will be driving market momentum forward. The continuous injection of capital by alternative investment firms, as well as the growing infrastructural investment from cloud service providers and social media companies, whose revenues are expected to grow over 3.6x larger by value in 2026, will likely help propel center provision and innovation. These factors paint a promising picture for the industry players that offset rising input costs and adapt to new technologies.
According to M Capital Group: “Specifically, the long-term cost-saving opportunities available from the rise of remote managing will likely aid value growth for the industry. Through margin optimization and further availability of capital for reinvestment, strong players will maintain their competitive foothold, while weaker players exit the market to balance supply and demand.”
Levelwise PageRank with Loop-Based Dead End Handling Strategy : SHORT REPORT ...Subhajit Sahu
Abstract — Levelwise PageRank is an alternative method of PageRank computation which decomposes the input graph into a directed acyclic block-graph of strongly connected components, and processes them in topological order, one level at a time. This enables calculation for ranks in a distributed fashion without per-iteration communication, unlike the standard method where all vertices are processed in each iteration. It however comes with a precondition of the absence of dead ends in the input graph. Here, the native non-distributed performance of Levelwise PageRank was compared against Monolithic PageRank on a CPU as well as a GPU. To ensure a fair comparison, Monolithic PageRank was also performed on a graph where vertices were split by components. Results indicate that Levelwise PageRank is about as fast as Monolithic PageRank on the CPU, but quite a bit slower on the GPU. Slowdown on the GPU is likely caused by a large submission of small workloads, and expected to be non-issue when the computation is performed on massive graphs.
Techniques to optimize the pagerank algorithm usually fall in two categories. One is to try reducing the work per iteration, and the other is to try reducing the number of iterations. These goals are often at odds with one another. Skipping computation on vertices which have already converged has the potential to save iteration time. Skipping in-identical vertices, with the same in-links, helps reduce duplicate computations and thus could help reduce iteration time. Road networks often have chains which can be short-circuited before pagerank computation to improve performance. Final ranks of chain nodes can be easily calculated. This could reduce both the iteration time, and the number of iterations. If a graph has no dangling nodes, pagerank of each strongly connected component can be computed in topological order. This could help reduce the iteration time, no. of iterations, and also enable multi-iteration concurrency in pagerank computation. The combination of all of the above methods is the STICD algorithm. [sticd] For dynamic graphs, unchanged components whose ranks are unaffected can be skipped altogether.
As Europe's leading economic powerhouse and the fourth-largest hashtag#economy globally, Germany stands at the forefront of innovation and industrial might. Renowned for its precision engineering and high-tech sectors, Germany's economic structure is heavily supported by a robust service industry, accounting for approximately 68% of its GDP. This economic clout and strategic geopolitical stance position Germany as a focal point in the global cyber threat landscape.
In the face of escalating global tensions, particularly those emanating from geopolitical disputes with nations like hashtag#Russia and hashtag#China, hashtag#Germany has witnessed a significant uptick in targeted cyber operations. Our analysis indicates a marked increase in hashtag#cyberattack sophistication aimed at critical infrastructure and key industrial sectors. These attacks range from ransomware campaigns to hashtag#AdvancedPersistentThreats (hashtag#APTs), threatening national security and business integrity.
🔑 Key findings include:
🔍 Increased frequency and complexity of cyber threats.
🔍 Escalation of state-sponsored and criminally motivated cyber operations.
🔍 Active dark web exchanges of malicious tools and tactics.
Our comprehensive report delves into these challenges, using a blend of open-source and proprietary data collection techniques. By monitoring activity on critical networks and analyzing attack patterns, our team provides a detailed overview of the threats facing German entities.
This report aims to equip stakeholders across public and private sectors with the knowledge to enhance their defensive strategies, reduce exposure to cyber risks, and reinforce Germany's resilience against cyber threats.
COVID-19 Updated impact* assessment of the novel Coronavirus
1. Economics
COVID-19
Updated impact* assessment
of the novel Coronavirus
Brian Pearce
Chief Economist
1
5th March 2020
* These are scenarios not forecasts and will change as the situation evolves and evidence builds.
2. Economics
Previous disease outbreaks have peaked after 1-3 months
and recovered pre-outbreak levels in 6-7 months
Source: IATA Economics using data from IATA Statistics
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Impact of past disease outbreaks on aviation
Index(crisismonth=100)
Months before and after the start of the crisis
SARS (2003)
AsiaPacific
Airlines
RPKs
AvianFlu (2013)
AsiaPacific Airlines RPKs
MERS Flu (2015)
RPKs to, from and within South
Korea
AvianFlu (2005)
RPKs to, from and within
South-East Asia
SARS (2003)
North American
Airlines RPKs
SARS (2003)
China Domestic Market
RPKs
3. Economics
SARS experience underestimates today’s impact
because China’s economic size is now much greater
Source: IATA Economics using data from the IMF WEO, UN, WTTC
4% 5%
10%
5%
16%
13%
39%
18%
Share in World Economy Share in Trade (Exports + Imports) Share in Manufacturing Share in Travel& Tourism
China’s Contribution to World Economy
2002 2018
4. Economics
If COVID-19 impact has a SARS-shaped profile this implies
a 13% loss of RPKs in 2020 for Asia-Pacific airlines
Source: IATA Economics using data from IATA Statistics
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Asia Pacific Airlines' RPKs
Months before and after crisis
BillionsRPKspermonth(Seasonally
adjusted)
9% loss of
annual RPKs
COVID-19 ‘SARS-shaped’ scenario
13% loss of
annual RPKs
compared to
pre-COVID-19
trend
Estimated with existing data to month 2 (February),
then scenario follows broad pattern of SARS
Note: this one of several possible scenarios. At
this stage we cannot predict the exact path
SARS 2003
5. Economics
This scenario results in a $28bn loss of passenger
revenues for Asia-Pacific airlines. If confined mostly to
China markets then impacts elsewhere are minor
Region of airline registration
Impact on 2020 RPKs (% of
December forecast for 2020)
Impact on 2020 passenger
revenue (billion US$)
Asia Pacific -13.0% -27.8
North America -0.4% -0.7
Europe -0.4% -0.6
Middle East -0.2% -0.1
Africa -0.4% -0.04
Latin America -0.1% -0.03
Industry -4.7% -29.3
Scenario notes: Regional impacts are based only on the direct exposure to Chinese markets,
except for Asia-Pacific airlines where a wider Asia impact is assumed, as in SARS. No additional or
second-round weakness of other markets beyond China are included for non-Asia Pacific airlines.
Revenue impacts are estimated based on the 2020 RPK impact assuming no change in yields.
6. Economics
But countries with more than 100 cases now account for
more than 27% of global passenger revenues
Source: IATA Economics using data from DDS
China:
Pax: 18% of Global Pax
Pax Revenues: US$98bn
Italy:
Pax: 4%
Pax Rev:
US$21bn
Japan:
Pax: 4.8%
Pax Rev: US$43bn
South
Korea:
Pax: 2.9%
Pax Rev:
US$20bn
Singapore:
Pax: 1.3%
Pax Rev:
US$13bn
Share in World Passenger Revenues*
Countries with confirmed cases greater than100 on 2nd March
Countries with confirmed cases lessthan100 on2nd March
Other countries w. confirmed
cases>100: 14%**
China: 13%
France:
Pax: 3.7%
Pax Rev:
US$25bn
Germany:
Pax: 4.6%
Pax Rev:
US$31bn
*Domestic& International
**overlaps removed
Iran:
Pax: 0.5%
Pax Rev:
US$4bn
Countries w. confirmed cases
<100: 58%*
7. Economics
The scale of the fall in bookings is related to the number
of COVID-19 cases in those markets
Source: IATA Economics using data from DDS
This data shows tickets sold for travel on these dates minus refunds and exchanges.
It is for scheduled travel and so will not include charter services.
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
China South Korea Iran Japan Singapore
Year-on Year % Change in Passenger Numbers – Bookings for April
80,174 4,212 978 254 106
Number of
Confirmed Cases
(2 March )
8. Economics
Scenario 1: ‘Limited Spread’ Scenario
▪ Countries that have 100 confirmed COVID-19 cases or more (as of 2 Mar) are included in the analysis.
▪ Asia-Pacific: China, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Europe: France, Italy, Germany, Middle East: Iran
▪ We assume a monthly profile for passenger numbers based first on the pattern in the China market data
following the COVID-19 outbreak and then the pattern of the SARS episode.
▪ March and April is based on the forward bookings data with the exception of Italy, France and
Germany.
▪ Italy is assumed to follow the same pattern as China. France and Germany are assumed to follow the
same pattern as Singapore (based on the relationship in the previous slide).
▪ After two months following the outbreak, the passenger number profile is based on SARS.
▪ We also assume an adverse confidence impact in markets close to the centres of community
transmission in Asia Pacific, Europe and Middle East.
▪ Asia Pacific markets outside of China, Japan, Singapore and South Korea, are based on forward
bookings for first two months and then follow a similar profile to SARS.
▪ In Europe and Middle East, year-on-year changes in passenger numbers are assumed to follow the
same pattern as the Asia-Pacific region outside of China, Japan, Singapore and South Korea.
▪ Revenue impacts are estimated assuming no change in yields.
9. Economics
Market
Impact on
passenger
numbers
Impact on passenger revenue
(Billion US$)*
China -23% -22.2
Japan -12% -5.3
Singapore -10% -1.3
South Korea -14% -2.8
Asia Pacific
(excluding China, Japan,
Singapore, South Korea) -11% -15.4
Italy -24% -5.0
Germany -10% -2.9
France -10% -2.5
Europe
(excluding Italy, Germany,
France) -7% -9.2
Iran -16% -0.6
Middle East (excluding Iran) -7% -3.0
The ‘Limited Spread’ scenario implies a $63 bn loss of
passenger revenues (11%) worldwide in 2020
Source: IATA Economics
* Note:
Revenue numbers do not
add up to the $63 bn
global total because of
route overlaps e.g. China
and Japan include
revenues on the China-
Japan market. We adjust
for overlaps in calculating
the worldwide total.
Revenues are base fare
revenues for all airlines
serving routes to, from
and within each country
10. Economics
Scenario 2: ‘Extensive Spread’ Scenario
▪ Countries that have 10 confirmed cases or more (as of 2 Mar) included in the analysis.
▪ Asia-Pacific: Australia, PR of China, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
▪ Europe: Austria, France, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, the United
Kingdom
▪ Middle East: Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates
▪ North America: Canada, United States
▪ We assume a monthly profile for passenger numbers based first on the pattern in the China market
data following the COVID-19 outbreak and then the pattern of the SARS episode.
▪ For March and April year-on-year changes is assumed to follow the same pattern as China.
▪ After two months, passenger demand profile is based on SARS episode.
▪ For Asia Pacific, Europe and Middle East outside the countries with 10 confirmed cases, regional
weakness due to confidence loss is included.
▪ Year-on-year change in demand is assumed to follow the same pattern as Asia-Pacific region outside
of China, Japan, Singapore, South Korea as in the mild scenario starting from March.
▪ Revenue impacts are estimated assuming no change in yields.
11. Economics
The ‘Extensive Spread’ scenario implies
a $113 bn loss of passenger revenues (19%)
worldwide in 2020
Market
Impact on
passenger
numbers
Impact on passenger revenue
(Billion US$)*
Australia, China, Japan, Malaysia,
Singapore, South Korea, Thailand,
Vietnam -23% -49.7
APAC excluding the above -9% -7.6
Austria, France, Italy, Germany,
Netherlands, Norway, Spain,
Switzerland, Sweden, the United
Kingdom -24% -37.3
Europe excluding the above -9% -6.6
Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Lebanon,
the United Arab Emirates -23% -4.9
Middle East excluding the above -9% -2.3
Canada, United States -10% -21.1
Source: IATA Economics
* Note:
Revenue numbers do not
add up to the $113 bn
global total because of
route overlaps e.g. China
and Japan include
revenues on the China-
Japan market. We adjust
for overlaps in calculating
the worldwide total.
Revenues are base fare
revenues for all airlines
serving routes to, from
and within each country
12. Economics
Fall in oil prices will provide some offset with lower costs
Source: IATA Economics using data from Refinitiv Datastream
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
US$perbarrel
Brent crude oil prices and futures curves,US$ per barrel
Early-Jan futures curve
(2020 average 63 $/b)
End-Feb futures curve
(2020 average 50 $/b)
With no hedging or change in the crack spread, a 13 $/b lower
fuel price could save $28 billion from the industry’s 2020 fuel bill.
Our December forecasts were based on an average 63 $/b oil
price. However, many airlines will have hedged 2020 fuel so this
benefit – if no further change – could be delayed for some.
13. Economics
Financial markets are now anticipating a large fall in
airline profits globally, far beyond SARS impact
Source: IATA Economics using data from Refinitiv Datastream
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36
Global Airlines Share Performance
SARS COVID-19
Days after the first case discovered outside of China
Coronavirus outbreak
accelerated outside of
China (Iran, Italy, South
Korea)
Index=100 at the date of the
first case outside of China
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
25% lower
compared to
SARS