this presentation is about a statistical problem analysis ...

1. F A I S A L I Q B A L B A N G A S H
Group Members

2.  Problem Analysis

3. CONTENTS
Problem Identification
Questions about the problem
Descriptive analysis
Regression analysis
Probability analysis

4. Problem Identification
Fluctuation in the stock prices of Nestle
Company

5. Variables
 Performance of a Company
 Declaration of Dividend
 Goodwill of a Company

6.  We get the secondary data about the stock price of
Nestle Company.
 Our population is one year (2010-2011) stock price of
the Nestle Company

7. Questions about the problem
 What is the average of stock price during the year?
And the deviation of stock price from the average.
 Does it affected by the uncontrollable factor?
 What will be the expected stock price?

8. Descriptive Analysis
 What is the average of stock price during the year? And the
deviation of stock price from the average?
During year one of the highest stock price is 56.55 and
the lowest stock price is 54.05.
The average stock price of the Nestle Company during the
one year (2010-2011) is 55.7. And the standard deviation
stock price from the average is 0.58
We can say that during the year, price was fluctuated with
0.58 Deviation from average 55.7

9. Date No; Stock Price(X) (X-X)^2
30-Dec-10 1 54.05 2.723
29-Dec-10 2 56.25 0.302
27-Dec-10 3 56.55 0.722
23-Dec-10 4 56.5 0.640
22-Dec-10 5 56.25 0.302
21-Dec-10 6 56.1 0.160
20-Dec-10 7 55.8 0.010
17-Dec-10 8 56 0.090
16-Dec-10 9 55.9 0.040
15-Dec-10 10 55.5 0.040
14-Dec-10 11 55.95 0.063
13-Dec-10 12 55.65 0.003
10-Dec-10 13 55.55 0.023
9-Dec-10 14 55.45 0.063
7-Dec-10 15 55.3 0.160
3-Dec-10 16 55.25 0.203
2-Dec-10 17 55.55 0.023

10. Regression Analysis
 Does it affected by the uncontrollable factor?
 In our data we took stock price as a dependent variable and
company performance, Goodwill, and the dividend
declaration as an independent variables.
 As we use the Adjusted R Square for calculating the effect of
external or uncontrollable factor.

11. In the model summary the Adjusted R square is 0.021. This
is more close to zero and respectively with 2.1% are adjusted
R square.
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square
Std. Error of the
Estimate
1
.440a .194 .021 .59050

12. Model
Unstandardized Coefficients
Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig.B Std. Error Beta
1 (Constant)
56.049 .769 72.86
4 .000
Goodwill
-.120 .286 -.101 -.420 .681
Dividend
-.377 .290 -.323 -1.300 .215
Company
performance .261 .296 .219 .881 .393
a. Dependent Variable: Stock price

13. Probability Analysis
What will be the expected stock price?
 Using the data of (2010-2011) we can predicted the future
value of stock price of the Nestle Company
 Using the empirical probability method we conduct an
expected stock price of the Nestle Company which is 55.7

14. X Frequency Probability xp
54.05 1 0.056 3.003
55 1 0.056 3.056
55.25 1 0.056 3.069
55.3 1 0.056 3.072
55.45 1 0.056 3.081
55.5 1 0.056 3.083
55.55 2 0.111 6.172
55.65 1 0.056 3.092
55.8 1 0.056 3.100
55.9 1 0.056 3.106
55.95 1 0.056 3.108
56 1 0.056 3.111
56.1 1 0.056 3.117
56.25 2 0.111 6.250
56.5 1 0.056 3.139
56.55 1 0.056 3.142
Σf=18 1.000 Σxp=55.700

15.  E(x) =Σxp E(x) =55.7
 We can say that in coming year the stock price of the Nestle
Company will be rounding in 55.7.

16. Conclusion
 We come to the Conclusion that the three variables
which we have consider i.e good will , company
performance and dividend.
 So the dividend and good will have negative relation
with the stock price of Nestle Company while the
Company performance have positive relation with
stock price.