We are pleased to release the February 2017 Africa Market Update covering Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Angola. This issue comes at a time when major central banks in sub-Saharan Africa have opted to retain benchmark rates signaling caution against both domestic and external risks.
- Indian equity markets fell in June 2017 for the first time in 2017 due to concerns around the implementation of GST and slowing domestic growth.
- Global growth forecasts were maintained but concerns remain around rising US interest rates and the need for China to accelerate economic reforms.
- India's fiscal deficit increased in the first two months of the fiscal year while inflation rates declined.
The document summarizes recent economic developments and outlook for Indonesia. Key points:
- Tightening global liquidity led to capital outflows from Indonesia, weakening the currency and pushing up inflation in 2013-2014. In response, interest rates were hiked and export restrictions introduced.
- Real GDP growth slowed to 5.1% in 2014, as exports and investment declined. Inflation has slowed to 4.0% in line with tighter monetary policy. The current account deficit widened to 4.3% of GDP due to weak exports and high imports.
- The new government faces challenges of slowing growth amid tight policies. Growth is forecast to further slow in the near term before recovering on reforms and export growth
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis across various sectors in India. It discusses that the RBI kept interest rates unchanged in its recent monetary policy review due to ongoing uncertainties around inflation. While inflation is falling, risks remain from the monsoon season, upcoming general elections, and US Fed tapering. The equity outlook remains positive with expectations of strong corporate earnings growth. Key sectors that are expected to perform well include banking, infrastructure, IT, and pharma. Overall, the analysis maintains a bullish stance on the Indian equity market.
The document provides an economic and market update for November 2013. It discusses positive performance in global equity markets and stability in the Indian rupee and debt markets in October. The Chief Investment Officer notes that while markets have reached new highs, fundamentals are also improving as earnings growth is catching up to price increases. Some market optimism also reflects speculation around the next elections in India. Overall the outlook is cautiously positive but volatility could increase from unexpected events.
- Real GDP growth in India slowed to 5.0% in 2013/14 due to the impact of US tapering of quantitative easing, supply bottlenecks, and policy uncertainty. Inflation also moderated to 5.5% in October 2014 from an average of 9.5% in 2013/14 due to tighter monetary policy and lower commodity prices.
- The current account deficit narrowed significantly to 1.8% of GDP in 2013/14 from 4.7% in 2012/13 as a result of the Indian Rupee depreciation and gold import restrictions.
- Lending growth moderated to 11.6% by end-March 2014 and further to 10% by end-September 2014 due
We are pleased to release the February 2017 Africa Market Update covering Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Angola. This issue comes at a time when major central banks in sub-Saharan Africa have opted to retain benchmark rates signaling caution against both domestic and external risks.
- Indian equity markets fell in June 2017 for the first time in 2017 due to concerns around the implementation of GST and slowing domestic growth.
- Global growth forecasts were maintained but concerns remain around rising US interest rates and the need for China to accelerate economic reforms.
- India's fiscal deficit increased in the first two months of the fiscal year while inflation rates declined.
The document summarizes recent economic developments and outlook for Indonesia. Key points:
- Tightening global liquidity led to capital outflows from Indonesia, weakening the currency and pushing up inflation in 2013-2014. In response, interest rates were hiked and export restrictions introduced.
- Real GDP growth slowed to 5.1% in 2014, as exports and investment declined. Inflation has slowed to 4.0% in line with tighter monetary policy. The current account deficit widened to 4.3% of GDP due to weak exports and high imports.
- The new government faces challenges of slowing growth amid tight policies. Growth is forecast to further slow in the near term before recovering on reforms and export growth
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis across various sectors in India. It discusses that the RBI kept interest rates unchanged in its recent monetary policy review due to ongoing uncertainties around inflation. While inflation is falling, risks remain from the monsoon season, upcoming general elections, and US Fed tapering. The equity outlook remains positive with expectations of strong corporate earnings growth. Key sectors that are expected to perform well include banking, infrastructure, IT, and pharma. Overall, the analysis maintains a bullish stance on the Indian equity market.
The document provides an economic and market update for November 2013. It discusses positive performance in global equity markets and stability in the Indian rupee and debt markets in October. The Chief Investment Officer notes that while markets have reached new highs, fundamentals are also improving as earnings growth is catching up to price increases. Some market optimism also reflects speculation around the next elections in India. Overall the outlook is cautiously positive but volatility could increase from unexpected events.
- Real GDP growth in India slowed to 5.0% in 2013/14 due to the impact of US tapering of quantitative easing, supply bottlenecks, and policy uncertainty. Inflation also moderated to 5.5% in October 2014 from an average of 9.5% in 2013/14 due to tighter monetary policy and lower commodity prices.
- The current account deficit narrowed significantly to 1.8% of GDP in 2013/14 from 4.7% in 2012/13 as a result of the Indian Rupee depreciation and gold import restrictions.
- Lending growth moderated to 11.6% by end-March 2014 and further to 10% by end-September 2014 due
This document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It summarizes that India's GDP growth slowed to a 10-year low of 4.5% in the third quarter due to declines in agriculture, mining, and manufacturing. Inflation rates have been falling but remain elevated. The RBI recently cut interest rates and expects further monetary easing this fiscal year alongside reforms to revive investment and growth. Equity markets have performed well recently and earnings are expected to grow 12% this year led by private banks, healthcare and consumer companies. The outlook provides sector views, favoring healthcare, banking, and FMCG.
Pakistan's exchange rate volatility.../Arshad Ahmed SaeedArshad Ahmed Saeed
The document analyzes the 20-year exchange rate trend of the Pakistani rupee from 1994 to 2013. It finds that the rupee depreciated over 700% against the US dollar over this period, continuously losing value. The exchange rate rose from 1994 to 2001, then declined until mid-2007 before dramatically increasing thereafter due to rising oil prices and political instability. This collapse of the rupee led to a 59.5 billion rupee increase in external debt due to unfavorable exchange rate movements since 2007-2008. A $6.6 billion IMF loan provides some relief but will increase costs for the private sector through higher interest rates required by IMF conditions.
The document provides a market and economic outlook report for June 2013. It identifies several positive factors for the Indian markets in the coming months, including strong FII inflows due to quantitative easing by Japan and the US. GDP growth is seen to have bottomed out, and inflation is expected to continue declining. The report also notes that rate cuts are likely to continue and commodity prices are declining. Key projects are moving forward and the monsoon is on schedule. Reliance also reported a significant gas find.
The document provides an economic outlook and summary of key markets for May 2014. It discusses expectations for the upcoming general election in India and implications for various asset classes. The equity outlook remains positive on expectations that a reform-oriented government will accelerate the economy and revive the growth and earnings cycle. The document recommends overweight positions in healthcare, IT/ITES, banking, energy, and neutral stances on power utilities and automobiles.
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis for India. It discusses recent economic data and performance across various sectors in India and globally. Some key points:
- GDP growth improved slightly to 4.8% in Q2 FY14 but remains below 5%. Services sector growth is slowing.
- Inflation remains elevated with WPI at 7.52% and CPI at 11.24% in Nov 2013. Food inflation is a major contributor.
- RBI kept policy rates unchanged in its recent meeting despite higher inflation, expecting food prices to decline. Rate hikes may resume in H1 2014.
- Global growth outlook remains positive which will support equity markets. Recovery is strengthening in the
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends_Malaysia and the Philippines Undergoing Rapid Grow...Kyna Tsai
Of the critical macroeconomic indicators released for the ASEAN economies from 16–31 August, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines announced their real economic growth rates (GDP growth rates) for 2Q 2017. The central banks of Indonesia and Thailand also held monetary policy meetings.
This report will focus on and look into the indices and economic policies of Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines, as well as the stirring political trends concerning the former Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.
The new government needs to
- The global investment climate became moderately positive in February, with the outlook on India improving considerably due to deteriorating fundamentals in other emerging markets.
restart the programme in a big way
- Quarterly company results surprised positively against the deteriorating macro scenario. It remains to be seen if this marks a turnaround or short-term improvements.
to meet its fiscal deficit targets and
- Going into March, equities may rally on expectations of a pro-reform government after elections. However, the market will be highly sensitive to the
“ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends” is a new series of SPEEDA reports released once every two weeks, compiled by Takashi Kawabata, our Chief Asia Economist. With macroeconomic indicators and financial policies as the fundamentals, the reports look into public economic policies when there are significant moves, as well as political and social issues that may affect economic and business trends.
The document provides an outlook and analysis of various currencies for the month of December 2016. It expects the Indian Rupee to depreciate due to the likelihood of a US interest rate hike and foreign fund outflows from emerging markets. The US Dollar is expected to strengthen on expectations of higher US rates. The Euro is forecast to recover on positive economic data from Germany and France. The Japanese Yen is expected to be volatile due to shifting risk sentiment in global markets. The British Pound is anticipated to be negative impacted by Brexit but gains will be capped by strong economic data.
- The Indonesian economy has grown rapidly in recent decades but growth has slowed from 6.4% in 2010 to an average of 4.7% in the first half of 2015 due to tight financial conditions, weak external demand from China, and a broad-based slowdown in consumption, investment, and exports.
- Inflation rose to 7.5% in 2015 as cuts to fuel subsidies and import tariffs pushed up prices, while the current account deficit narrowed to 1.8% of GDP as imports fell more than exports.
- The report forecasts that growth will recover to 5.0% in 2016 as infrastructure investment increases, then to 5.5% in 2017 as financial conditions ease, while
The IMF has cut its growth forecasts for the Mongolian economy in 2013 and beyond due to continued weakness in the global economy, particularly in China. GDP growth in Mongolia is now expected to be 11.8% in 2013, down from a previous forecast of 14%, and growth rates are expected to slow further to 5.8% in 2015 and 3.6% in 2016. Of concern is the rebalancing underway in China towards domestic consumption, which could reduce demand for Mongolia's commodity exports. The World Economic Outlook database shows Mongolia's export growth forecasts have been significantly revised downward.
Key Growth Drivers and Fiscal Challenges in Economy: India and ChinaDibyajyoti Saikia
This presentation provides a comparison of Indian and Chinese economy in context to Key Growth Drivers and Fiscal Challenges.
Happy reading and Thanks!
The document discusses India's strong economic growth in recent years, with GDP growth averaging over 8.5% since 2003 and expected to be around 8.5% in 2007-2008. Inflation has also increased but remains under control at around 5%. Interest rates are expected to rise to control inflation. The strengthening economy has boosted investor confidence but India still faces challenges in sustaining growth, reducing poverty and population growth, and developing infrastructure and education.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It notes that India's GDP growth was 4.8% in the last quarter, slightly higher than the previous quarter's 4.7% but below the previous year's 6.2%. Industrial production growth slowed to 2% in April 2013. While inflation tapered to 4.7% due to fuel prices, food inflation increased to 7.64% due to higher vegetable prices. The RBI kept interest rates unchanged and will focus on inflation and the current account deficit over growth. Bank credit growth was lower and the rupee depreciated due to reversal of foreign institutional investment inflows.
The document provides outlooks from leaders of Franklin Templeton on the global macro environment, global equities, and multi-strategy solutions. It includes the following key points:
- Michael Hasenstab discusses expectations for continuing US economic growth and rising interest rates from the Fed, while the BOJ and ECB maintain quantitative easing. Emerging markets show differences that will be magnified by US rate hikes.
- Ed Perks oversees equity teams that share insights across markets to strengthen convictions.
- Rick Frisbie's group incorporates long-term capital market expectations into portfolio positioning for the next 5-10 years.
Analysis of Monetary Policy in BangladeshMirza Tanzida
The document analyzes monetary policy in Bangladesh over several fiscal years, noting economic challenges and the policy approaches taken. Restricted monetary policy was initially used from 2013 to focus on corporate governance and stability, employing tools like open market operations and interest rates. Expansionary policy was later used to increase growth, utilizing reverse repo operations and cash reserve requirements. The analysis discusses targets, actuals, impacts like inflation and growth rates, and shifts between restrictive and expansionary stances based on economic conditions.
Alpha edge august 2017 content (edited)Srikanth A V
- The Indian stock market benchmark Nifty breached the 10,000 mark in July 2017, rising 5.84% on improved expectations for corporate performance and a normal monsoon season.
- Foreign investors continued investing in Indian capital markets in July, with approximately Rs. 19 billion in inflows. So far in 2017, foreign portfolio investment inflows total around Rs. 570 billion.
- However, July saw lower foreign investment than the previous month as investors await signs of earnings recovery and deal with uncertainties from the new GST implementation.
- While Indian equities have surged in 2017 on economic reforms and liquidity, valuations are now above long-term averages, and earnings growth has not yet recovered to
- Global equity markets declined due to concerns over the tapering of US quantitative easing and rising US bond yields. The MSCI AC World Index fell 1.43% on losses in Japan and emerging markets.
- In Asia, Japanese markets saw sharp falls while Chinese and Philippine economic data was relatively strong. The Bank of Thailand cut interest rates. In Europe, unemployment rose in southern countries while data in Switzerland, Sweden and the UK was ahead of expectations.
- US housing and consumer confidence data was positive but equity markets fell for the second week. In Latin America, central banks in Canada and Colombia left rates unchanged while Brazil raised rates and had weak GDP growth.
- Major global equity indices rose this week supported by strong US economic data and signs of continued easy monetary policy. Bond markets saw some volatility due to debate around tapering of US quantitative easing and increased risk appetite. Commodity prices were mixed.
- In Asia, Japanese stocks advanced on a weak yen, positive earnings, and strong economic growth in Q1. Chinese stocks also rose despite below-forecast economic data. Indian equities extended gains on expectations of monetary easing and positive global sentiment.
- European stocks gained led by automotive shares, despite weak macro data including Eurozone GDP contraction. Central banks in Israel, Turkey, and Europe took various monetary actions. The US saw upbeat data and equities at
- The rupee has fallen sharply against the dollar since May due to the strengthening dollar and India's large current account deficit. Economic growth slowed to 4.4% in the first quarter of FY14, its lowest rate in four years. Inflation has begun rising due to imported inflation from a weaker rupee.
- The government needs to take steps to attract more dollar inflows, such as issuing bonds targeted at NRIs and encouraging public sector firms to raise funds abroad. A weaker rupee and falling gold imports are expected to reduce the current account deficit and support the rupee's recovery to around 60 by March.
- However, risks remain from any acceleration in the US Federal Reserve's tapering of
ICICI Prudential AMC - Market Outlook - October 2017iciciprumf
- Indian equity markets declined in September due to geopolitical tensions, higher crude prices, and weaker than expected GDP growth.
- Inflation rose in August driven by increases in food and fuel prices. The rupee also fell against the US dollar.
- Foreign institutional investors continued selling Indian equities while domestic mutual funds purchased shares.
- The document recommends dynamic asset allocation funds to benefit from market cycles and mentions specific pure equity and thematic funds for long-term investment.
This document summarizes factors that influence Bangladesh's currency exchange rates. It discusses Bangladesh's economic conditions and exchange rate history. It also analyzes recent news articles about factors that have caused the Bangladeshi taka to appreciate or depreciate against other currencies. These factors include inflation, interest rates, trade deficits, remittances, exports such as RMG to Japan, and US presidential policies. The document concludes that local and global economic conditions can impact the exchange rate of the Bangladeshi taka.
This document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It summarizes that India's GDP growth slowed to a 10-year low of 4.5% in the third quarter due to declines in agriculture, mining, and manufacturing. Inflation rates have been falling but remain elevated. The RBI recently cut interest rates and expects further monetary easing this fiscal year alongside reforms to revive investment and growth. Equity markets have performed well recently and earnings are expected to grow 12% this year led by private banks, healthcare and consumer companies. The outlook provides sector views, favoring healthcare, banking, and FMCG.
Pakistan's exchange rate volatility.../Arshad Ahmed SaeedArshad Ahmed Saeed
The document analyzes the 20-year exchange rate trend of the Pakistani rupee from 1994 to 2013. It finds that the rupee depreciated over 700% against the US dollar over this period, continuously losing value. The exchange rate rose from 1994 to 2001, then declined until mid-2007 before dramatically increasing thereafter due to rising oil prices and political instability. This collapse of the rupee led to a 59.5 billion rupee increase in external debt due to unfavorable exchange rate movements since 2007-2008. A $6.6 billion IMF loan provides some relief but will increase costs for the private sector through higher interest rates required by IMF conditions.
The document provides a market and economic outlook report for June 2013. It identifies several positive factors for the Indian markets in the coming months, including strong FII inflows due to quantitative easing by Japan and the US. GDP growth is seen to have bottomed out, and inflation is expected to continue declining. The report also notes that rate cuts are likely to continue and commodity prices are declining. Key projects are moving forward and the monsoon is on schedule. Reliance also reported a significant gas find.
The document provides an economic outlook and summary of key markets for May 2014. It discusses expectations for the upcoming general election in India and implications for various asset classes. The equity outlook remains positive on expectations that a reform-oriented government will accelerate the economy and revive the growth and earnings cycle. The document recommends overweight positions in healthcare, IT/ITES, banking, energy, and neutral stances on power utilities and automobiles.
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis for India. It discusses recent economic data and performance across various sectors in India and globally. Some key points:
- GDP growth improved slightly to 4.8% in Q2 FY14 but remains below 5%. Services sector growth is slowing.
- Inflation remains elevated with WPI at 7.52% and CPI at 11.24% in Nov 2013. Food inflation is a major contributor.
- RBI kept policy rates unchanged in its recent meeting despite higher inflation, expecting food prices to decline. Rate hikes may resume in H1 2014.
- Global growth outlook remains positive which will support equity markets. Recovery is strengthening in the
ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends_Malaysia and the Philippines Undergoing Rapid Grow...Kyna Tsai
Of the critical macroeconomic indicators released for the ASEAN economies from 16–31 August, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines announced their real economic growth rates (GDP growth rates) for 2Q 2017. The central banks of Indonesia and Thailand also held monetary policy meetings.
This report will focus on and look into the indices and economic policies of Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines, as well as the stirring political trends concerning the former Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.
The new government needs to
- The global investment climate became moderately positive in February, with the outlook on India improving considerably due to deteriorating fundamentals in other emerging markets.
restart the programme in a big way
- Quarterly company results surprised positively against the deteriorating macro scenario. It remains to be seen if this marks a turnaround or short-term improvements.
to meet its fiscal deficit targets and
- Going into March, equities may rally on expectations of a pro-reform government after elections. However, the market will be highly sensitive to the
“ASEAN Macroeconomic Trends” is a new series of SPEEDA reports released once every two weeks, compiled by Takashi Kawabata, our Chief Asia Economist. With macroeconomic indicators and financial policies as the fundamentals, the reports look into public economic policies when there are significant moves, as well as political and social issues that may affect economic and business trends.
The document provides an outlook and analysis of various currencies for the month of December 2016. It expects the Indian Rupee to depreciate due to the likelihood of a US interest rate hike and foreign fund outflows from emerging markets. The US Dollar is expected to strengthen on expectations of higher US rates. The Euro is forecast to recover on positive economic data from Germany and France. The Japanese Yen is expected to be volatile due to shifting risk sentiment in global markets. The British Pound is anticipated to be negative impacted by Brexit but gains will be capped by strong economic data.
- The Indonesian economy has grown rapidly in recent decades but growth has slowed from 6.4% in 2010 to an average of 4.7% in the first half of 2015 due to tight financial conditions, weak external demand from China, and a broad-based slowdown in consumption, investment, and exports.
- Inflation rose to 7.5% in 2015 as cuts to fuel subsidies and import tariffs pushed up prices, while the current account deficit narrowed to 1.8% of GDP as imports fell more than exports.
- The report forecasts that growth will recover to 5.0% in 2016 as infrastructure investment increases, then to 5.5% in 2017 as financial conditions ease, while
The IMF has cut its growth forecasts for the Mongolian economy in 2013 and beyond due to continued weakness in the global economy, particularly in China. GDP growth in Mongolia is now expected to be 11.8% in 2013, down from a previous forecast of 14%, and growth rates are expected to slow further to 5.8% in 2015 and 3.6% in 2016. Of concern is the rebalancing underway in China towards domestic consumption, which could reduce demand for Mongolia's commodity exports. The World Economic Outlook database shows Mongolia's export growth forecasts have been significantly revised downward.
Key Growth Drivers and Fiscal Challenges in Economy: India and ChinaDibyajyoti Saikia
This presentation provides a comparison of Indian and Chinese economy in context to Key Growth Drivers and Fiscal Challenges.
Happy reading and Thanks!
The document discusses India's strong economic growth in recent years, with GDP growth averaging over 8.5% since 2003 and expected to be around 8.5% in 2007-2008. Inflation has also increased but remains under control at around 5%. Interest rates are expected to rise to control inflation. The strengthening economy has boosted investor confidence but India still faces challenges in sustaining growth, reducing poverty and population growth, and developing infrastructure and education.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It notes that India's GDP growth was 4.8% in the last quarter, slightly higher than the previous quarter's 4.7% but below the previous year's 6.2%. Industrial production growth slowed to 2% in April 2013. While inflation tapered to 4.7% due to fuel prices, food inflation increased to 7.64% due to higher vegetable prices. The RBI kept interest rates unchanged and will focus on inflation and the current account deficit over growth. Bank credit growth was lower and the rupee depreciated due to reversal of foreign institutional investment inflows.
The document provides outlooks from leaders of Franklin Templeton on the global macro environment, global equities, and multi-strategy solutions. It includes the following key points:
- Michael Hasenstab discusses expectations for continuing US economic growth and rising interest rates from the Fed, while the BOJ and ECB maintain quantitative easing. Emerging markets show differences that will be magnified by US rate hikes.
- Ed Perks oversees equity teams that share insights across markets to strengthen convictions.
- Rick Frisbie's group incorporates long-term capital market expectations into portfolio positioning for the next 5-10 years.
Analysis of Monetary Policy in BangladeshMirza Tanzida
The document analyzes monetary policy in Bangladesh over several fiscal years, noting economic challenges and the policy approaches taken. Restricted monetary policy was initially used from 2013 to focus on corporate governance and stability, employing tools like open market operations and interest rates. Expansionary policy was later used to increase growth, utilizing reverse repo operations and cash reserve requirements. The analysis discusses targets, actuals, impacts like inflation and growth rates, and shifts between restrictive and expansionary stances based on economic conditions.
Alpha edge august 2017 content (edited)Srikanth A V
- The Indian stock market benchmark Nifty breached the 10,000 mark in July 2017, rising 5.84% on improved expectations for corporate performance and a normal monsoon season.
- Foreign investors continued investing in Indian capital markets in July, with approximately Rs. 19 billion in inflows. So far in 2017, foreign portfolio investment inflows total around Rs. 570 billion.
- However, July saw lower foreign investment than the previous month as investors await signs of earnings recovery and deal with uncertainties from the new GST implementation.
- While Indian equities have surged in 2017 on economic reforms and liquidity, valuations are now above long-term averages, and earnings growth has not yet recovered to
- Global equity markets declined due to concerns over the tapering of US quantitative easing and rising US bond yields. The MSCI AC World Index fell 1.43% on losses in Japan and emerging markets.
- In Asia, Japanese markets saw sharp falls while Chinese and Philippine economic data was relatively strong. The Bank of Thailand cut interest rates. In Europe, unemployment rose in southern countries while data in Switzerland, Sweden and the UK was ahead of expectations.
- US housing and consumer confidence data was positive but equity markets fell for the second week. In Latin America, central banks in Canada and Colombia left rates unchanged while Brazil raised rates and had weak GDP growth.
- Major global equity indices rose this week supported by strong US economic data and signs of continued easy monetary policy. Bond markets saw some volatility due to debate around tapering of US quantitative easing and increased risk appetite. Commodity prices were mixed.
- In Asia, Japanese stocks advanced on a weak yen, positive earnings, and strong economic growth in Q1. Chinese stocks also rose despite below-forecast economic data. Indian equities extended gains on expectations of monetary easing and positive global sentiment.
- European stocks gained led by automotive shares, despite weak macro data including Eurozone GDP contraction. Central banks in Israel, Turkey, and Europe took various monetary actions. The US saw upbeat data and equities at
- The rupee has fallen sharply against the dollar since May due to the strengthening dollar and India's large current account deficit. Economic growth slowed to 4.4% in the first quarter of FY14, its lowest rate in four years. Inflation has begun rising due to imported inflation from a weaker rupee.
- The government needs to take steps to attract more dollar inflows, such as issuing bonds targeted at NRIs and encouraging public sector firms to raise funds abroad. A weaker rupee and falling gold imports are expected to reduce the current account deficit and support the rupee's recovery to around 60 by March.
- However, risks remain from any acceleration in the US Federal Reserve's tapering of
ICICI Prudential AMC - Market Outlook - October 2017iciciprumf
- Indian equity markets declined in September due to geopolitical tensions, higher crude prices, and weaker than expected GDP growth.
- Inflation rose in August driven by increases in food and fuel prices. The rupee also fell against the US dollar.
- Foreign institutional investors continued selling Indian equities while domestic mutual funds purchased shares.
- The document recommends dynamic asset allocation funds to benefit from market cycles and mentions specific pure equity and thematic funds for long-term investment.
This document summarizes factors that influence Bangladesh's currency exchange rates. It discusses Bangladesh's economic conditions and exchange rate history. It also analyzes recent news articles about factors that have caused the Bangladeshi taka to appreciate or depreciate against other currencies. These factors include inflation, interest rates, trade deficits, remittances, exports such as RMG to Japan, and US presidential policies. The document concludes that local and global economic conditions can impact the exchange rate of the Bangladeshi taka.
The external sector of India's economy remains stable, though the current account deficit is projected to widen to 2.4% of GDP in 2018-19 due to a deterioration in the trade deficit. Rising crude oil prices and a decline in export growth have contributed to the worsening trade deficit. The income terms of trade, a measure of import purchasing power, has been rising, possibly because export price growth has exceeded crude price growth. Foreign exchange reserves declined by $17.5 billion during April-December 2018 due to a shortfall in capital inflows relative to the current account deficit.
Factor affecting exchange rate and its impact on Indian Economydigvijayjadhav22
The document provides information on several key factors affecting the Indian economy:
1) Exchange rates - It lists the exchange rates of the Indian Rupee to major world currencies like the US Dollar, Euro, and others.
2) Inflation - India's inflation rate was 3.88% in 2019, down from earlier highs of over 10% in 2010-2012. Common inflation measures in India include WPI and CPI.
3) GDP - India has one of the largest economies in the world by GDP and is among the fastest growing. Its GDP was over $2.9 trillion in 2019 with services as the largest sector.
- Domestic macroeconomic data from India was positive, with improving industrial production, inflation, and trade deficit figures.
- However, the document notes concerns about a potential Greek exit from the Eurozone and its short-term negative impacts on markets.
- It recommends watching sectors with high foreign institutional investor ownership closely as markets may see volatility depending on developments in Greece.
The document provides a monthly economic update for Bangladesh covering February 2017. Some key points:
- Broad money and private sector credit growth both increased in December 2016. Twelve-month average inflation eased while point-to-point inflation increased in January 2017.
- Export growth slowed during the first seven months of the fiscal year while import growth increased. Workers' remittances declined year-over-year but increased month-over-month in January.
- Tax revenue collection increased significantly during the first four months of the fiscal year. Agricultural credit, industrial production, SME loans, and industrial term loans all increased over the period under review.
The document provides an overview of TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd, an Indian commodities and currencies forecasting firm. It summarizes TransGraph's services including price forecasting, risk management, value chain analysis and risk consulting software. It then discusses the global economic outlook, with the Euro strengthening against the US Dollar despite divergent monetary policies between the ECB and Fed. It also covers trends in the US, Eurozone, Japanese and Chinese economies and currencies. The document concludes with an outlook for the US Dollar index to find support above 87 and rise to 94.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the Indian and global economies, as well as the USD/INR currency outlook and application of Elliott wave theory for forecasting castor seed prices. It summarizes the state of the global economy, factors influencing the US dollar and euro currencies, and implications for commodities. For the Indian economy, it outlines expectations for GDP growth, fiscal trends, credit expansion, and the impact on foreign institutional investment. The document is presented by the founder of TransGraph Consulting, an Indian firm specializing in commodities and currency price forecasting, risk management, and other services.
The document provides an economic outlook and investment advice for investors. It discusses positive developments in the global and Indian economies that are supportive of equity markets. Key points:
- Global growth remains positive, supporting equity markets. The US recovery is strong and the Eurozone is improving.
- The Indian economy is showing signs of recovery, though growth remains below 5%. Inflation spiked but is expected to cool off.
- Elections are typically positive for Indian equities, with markets expecting improved governance. Opinion polls favor the opposition.
- The RBI kept interest rates unchanged despite high inflation, believing prices will fall. Rates may rise slightly in the first half but fall in the second half.
Pakistan has been a member of the World Trade Organization since 1995. The document discusses Pakistan's balance of payments, foreign exchange reserves, exchange rates, and workers' remittances. A key point is that while Pakistan's exports have grown slowly, imports have increased 10.2%, leading to a widening of the trade deficit and current account deficit, which reached $6.2 billion in the first nine months of the fiscal year. Workers' remittances from countries such as the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have increased to help address the deficit. By the end of April 2007, foreign exchange reserves reached over $13 billion.
The document provides an economic analysis of India by summarizing key economic indicators such as GDP, GDP growth rate, GDP per capita, interest rates, inflation rate, and others. It discusses that India's GDP was worth $1,729 billion in 2010, with an average annual growth rate of over 7% since 1997. GDP per capita was $718 in 2008, adjusted for purchasing power parity. The interest rate was last reported at 7% in 2010, while inflation was at 8.62% in June 2011.
The Indian rupee’s recent roller-coaster ride has impacted virtually every section of society. It has hit the country’s finances, eroded investor confidence, pushed down stock indices, pumped up fuel prices and, in turn, those of essentials.
The rupee’s slide is symptomatic of the concerns about the India story. Months of policy paralysis, political churn and social standoffs have taken their toll. It is in this backdrop that senior journalist Subhomoy Bhattacharjee analyses the prospects of the rupee in the cover story of the August edition of PAR, MSLGROUP India’s public affairs newsletter.
Another senior journalist, Kandula Subramaniam, puts into perspective the power crisis the country is up against and the dilemma state electricity companies are facing.
Additionally, you'll also find an analysis of India's bold food security law as well as an update of important policy announcements and reviews in this issue.
- Total government receipts from April to October 2017 were Rs. 1,292,648 cr, up 12.3% from the same period last year. However, revenue receipts did not grow as expected due to lower than expected GST collections.
- Gross tax receipts were Rs. 973,412 cr, an 18.9% increase over the same period last year. However, the revenue deficit was Rs. 401,085 cr, 22.3% higher than last year and exceeding the budget estimate.
- The fiscal deficit was Rs. 525,321 cr, exceeding the budget estimate and 24% higher than the same period last year, indicating it will likely exceed the full-year budget.
- Total government receipts from April to October 2017 were Rs. 1,292,648 cr, up 12.3% from the same period last year. However, revenue receipts did not grow as expected due to lower than expected GST collections.
- Gross tax receipts were Rs. 973,412 cr, an 18.9% increase over the same period last year. However, the revenue deficit was Rs. 401,085 cr, 22.3% higher than last year and exceeding the budget estimate.
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Comparative analysis of asian anf african nation currencies
1. Presented by :
Debashish Sahu 16010121082
FIVE ASIAN AND AFRICAN
NATION,THEIR CURRENCY
AND THE COMPARATIVE
ANALYSIS
2. Currency Exchange Rates
Currency exchange rate is the value of a unit of
currency of a country with respect to a unit of other
currency or the rate at which one currency will be
exchanged for another.
For example, an interbank exchange rate of 65.05 INR
to the US Dollar means that ₹65.05 will be exchanged
for each 1 US$ or that US$ will be exchanged for each
₹65.05.
3. The currency depends on:
Political Conditions of a country
Economic Conditions
Inflation/Deflation
Central Bank’s Interest Rate (In India, it is RBI’s
interest Rates)
Trade with other countries in that currency.
4. Five of the Asian countries are as
follows:
INDIA
CHINA
JAPAN
ISRAEL
SINGAPORE
5. Indian rupee is the official currency of
the Republic of India.
Issuance : Reserve Bank of India
Printer : Reserve Bank of India
Users: India (official),
Bhutan, Nepal(Unofficial)
6. • Over the past 10 years the rupee has devaluated from 40 INR
per USD to 65 INR per USD
8. India has been recording sustained trade deficits since
1980 mainly due to the high growth of imports,
particularly of mineral fuels, oils and waxes and
bituminous substances and pearls.
10. The renminbi is the official currency of the People's
Republic of China. And "Chinese yuan" is widely used to
refer to the renminbi. Where Yuan is basic unit of
renminbi.
Symbol for renminbi is “ ¥ ”
Official user(s) : China
Unofficial user
Hong Kong
Macau
Mongolia
North Korea
Myanmar
Vietnam
Zimbabwe
11. • Trend of Chinese Yuan over the past 10 years .(CNY/USD)
12. Chinese GDP Grows 6.9% in 2017
The Chinese economy expanded 6.8 percent year-on-year
in the last quarter of 2017, the same as in the previous
three months and beating market expectations of 6.7
percent.
13. China's trade surplus narrowed sharply to USD 20.34
billion in January 2018 from USD 50.21 billion in the
same month a year earlier and way below market
consensus of USD 54.1 billion.
14. • China's consumer prices rose by 1.5 percent year-on-
year in January of 2018, after a 1.8 percent rise in the
prior month and matching market consensus. It was the
lowest inflation rate since July 2017 as cost of non-food
grew at a slower pace and cost of food fell further.
15. • In China, interest rates decisions are taken by The Peoples'
Bank of China Monetary Policy Committee. The PBC
administers two different benchmark interest rates: one year
lending and one year deposit rate.
16. The yen is the official currency of Japan.
It is the third most traded currency in
the foreign exchange market after
the United States dollar and the euro.
Symbol for Japanese yen : ¥;
Code: JPY (also abbreviated as JP¥).
17. • The trade gap in Japan decreased to JPY 943 billion in
January of 2018 from JPY 1092 billion a year earlier and below
market expectations of JPY 1002 billion.
18. The Japanese economy advanced 0.1 percent on quarter in the
three months to December of 2017, following a 0.6 percent
expansion in the previous period
The unemployment rate in Japan dropped sharply to 2.4 percent
in December of 2017 from 2.8 percent in the prior month and
below market consensus of 2.7 percent.
Consumer prices in Japan rose by 1.4 percent year-on-year in
January of 2018, after a 1.0 percent gain in the prior month
while markets estimated 1.3 percent.
The Bank of Japan left its key short-term interest rate
unchanged at -0.1 percent at its January 2018.
19. o Interest Rate in Japan averaged 2.86 percent from 1972 until
2018, reaching an all time high of 9 percent in December of 1973
and a record low of -0.10 percent in January of 2016
20. The Israeli new shekel also known as simply the Israeli
shekel and formerly known as the New Israeli Sheqel (NIS),
is the currency of Israel and is also used as a legal tender in
the Palestinian territories of the West Bank and the Gaza
Strip.
Sign : ₪;
Code : ILS
Central Bank : Bank of Israel
21. • The Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) in Israel
expanded 0.90 percent
in the fourth quarter of
2017 over the previous
quarter. GDP Growth
Rate in Israel averaged
0.95 percent from 1980
until 2017, reaching an
all time high of 4.30
percent in the second
quarter of 1984 and a
record low of -1.10
percent in the first
quarter of 1986.
22. Unemployment Rate in Israel decreased to 3.70 percent in
January from 4 percent in December of 2017.
The inflation rate in Israel was recorded at 0.10 percent in
January of 2018 increased from in −0.2% (2016).
Interest Rate in Israel averaged 5.72 percent from 1996 until
2018, reaching an all time high of 17 percent in June of 1996
and a record low of 0.10 percent in February of 2015.
Israel recorded a trade deficit of 1131.20 USD Million in
January of 2018. Balance of Trade in Israel averaged -463.12
USD Million from 1959 until 2018, reaching an all time high of
113.80 USD Million in May of 2009 and a record low of -2334
USD Million in October of 2012.
23. • Imports in Israel decreased to 5985 USD Million in January from
6411.60 USD Million in December of 2017.
• Exports in Israel increased to 4853.80 USD Million in January
from 4576.30 USD Million in December of 2017
24. The Singapore dollar is the
official currency of Singapore. It is divided into
100 cents.
It is normally abbreviated with the dollar
sign $, or S$ to distinguish it from other
dollar-denominated currencies.
Sign: S$
Code: SGD
25. • The Singapore economy grew by a seasonally-adjusted
annualised basis of 2.1 percent.
•GDP Growth Rate in Singapore averaged 6.84 percent from 1975
until 2017, reaching an all time high of 36.60 percent in the first
quarter of 2010 and a record low of -13.50 percent in the fourth
quarter of 2008.
26. Consumer prices in Singapore were flat on the
year in January of 2018, following a 0.4 percent
increase in the prior month and compared to
market expectations of a 0.4 percent rise.
The benchmark interest rate in Singapore was
last recorded at 0.83 percent.
Singapore's trade surplus soared to SGD 5.14
billion in January of 2018 from SGD 3.32 billion
in the same month a year earlier.
27. • Balance of Trade in
Singapore averaged
819 Million SGD from
1964 until 2018
•And reaching an all
time high of 8482.86
Million SGD in March
of 2015 and a record
low of -1985.81
Million SGD in
October of 1993.
34. Zimbabwean dollar as an official currency was effectively
abandoned on 12 April 2009. It was demonetised in 2015, In
place of the Zimbabwean dollar, currencies including
the South African rand.
35. Zimbabwe’s economy, once one of the strongest in
Africa, has one of the lowest GDP per capita in the
world. Years of mismanagement and endemic
corruption has completely destroyed the country
36. Consumer prices in Zimbabwe increased 3.52
percent year-on-year in January of 2018, following a
3.46 percent rise in the previous month.
The benchmark interest rate in Zimbabwe was last
recorded at 9.66 percent. Interest Rate in Zimbabwe
averaged 12.52 percent from 2011 until 2017
37. Zimbabwe recorded a trade deficit of 230.21 USD
Million in June of 2017. Balance of Trade in
Zimbabwe averaged -264.53 USD Million from 1991
until 2017, reaching an all time high of 293 USD
Million in December of 2000
38. The Egyptian pound is the currency of Egypt.
Sign : E£
Code : EGP
Issuer : Central Bank of Egypt
39. The Egyptian Pound reached an all time high of 19.67
in December of 2016 and a record low of 4.59 in
January of 2003.
40. The GDP in Egypt expanded 5.30 percent year-on-year in the
fourth quarter of 2017, up from 5.2 percent in the previous
period. Considering full 2017, the economy grew 5 percent,
the highest growth rate since 2010.
Consumer prices in Egypt went up 17.1 percent year-on-year
in January of 2018, compared to a 21.9 percent rise in the
previous month. It was the lowest inflation rate since October
2016.Inflation Rate in Egypt averaged 9.39 percent from 1958
until 2018, reaching an all time high of 35.10 percent in June
of 1986 and a record low of -4.20 percent in August of 1962.
41. The central bank of Egypt cut its benchmark overnight deposit
rate by 100bps to 17.75 percent on February 15th 2018, in line
with market expectations, saying tight monetary conditions
have contained inflationary pressures
Egypt recorded a trade deficit of 3294 USD Million in
December of 2017, reaching an all time high of 235.50 USD
Million in January of 2004 and a record low of -5056.10 USD
Million in August of 2014.
42. The Ghanaian cedi is the unit of currency of Ghana. It is
the fourth historical and only current legal tender in the
Republic of Ghana.
currency sign: GH₵
Currency code: GHS
Issuer: Bank of Ghana
43. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Ghana expanded 2.50
percent in the third quarter of 2017 over the previous quarter.
It achieved a all time high of 7.40 percent in the first quarter of
2011 and a record low of -2.20 percent in the fourth quarter of
2008
44. The Ghanaian Cedi reached an all time
high of 4.73 in March of 2017 and a record
low of 0.90 in July of 2007
45. The Rupee is the currency of Mauritius. Several other
currencies are also called rupee.
Sign: ₨
ISO : 4217
Code: MUR
Central bank: Bank of Mauritius
46. The Mauritian Rupee reached an all time high of 36.33 in
November of 2015 and a record low of 27.75 in April of
2011.
47. (GDP) : It has attended high of 6.10 percent in the first
quarter of 2008 and a record low of -1.70 percent in the first
quarter of 2002.
Inflation Rate in Mauritius averaged 6.18 percent from
1988 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 18.10
percent in April of 1989 and a record low of -1 percent in
January of 1992.
48. Balance of Trade in Mauritius averaged -6024.15 MUR Million
from 1985 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 560 MUR
Million in September of 1986 and a record low of -23045 MUR
Million in December of 2012.
Interest Rate in Mauritius averaged 5.06 percent from 2006
until 2018, reaching an all time high of 9.25 percent in June of
2007 and a record low of 3.50 percent in July of 2017.