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Commodity trading through futures contracts
1. ECON 337:
Agricultural Marketing
Chad Hart
Associate Professor
chart@iastate.edu
515-294-9911
Lee Schulz
Assistant Professor
lschulz@iastate.edu
515-294-3356
3. Class Time: TR 9:30-10:20am
Carver 202
Lab Time: T 2:10-4:00pm
Heady 68
Office Hours: By appointment
Class web site:
http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Classes/econ337/Spring2014/
4. Guidelines and rules:
No cell phone calls or texting in class or lab
Lab attendance is required, difficult to reschedule
Class attendance is recommended
Course reading and resource materials will be
available on-line
Grading:
Two exams 40%
Three quizzes 15%
Homework assignments 15%
Marketing plan project and report 30%
5. Course objectives:
Understand the use of futures, options, and other
tools in marketing and risk management decisions
Understand the use of cash sales and contracts
and the role of basis, storage, and transportation in
determining prices
Know the various sources of agricultural data
information and the roles these data play within the
commodity markets
Understand the forces that shape commodity
markets and learn about market/price forecasting
Design an integrated production and marketing
plan for farms and agribusiness
6. Marketing
A series of events and services to create, modify,
and transport a product from initial creation to
consumption
Possible steps:
Planning
Production
Inspection
Transport
Storage
Processing
Sale
Market players:
Producers
Elevators
Processors
Transport companies
Banks/Insurance companies
Traders
Feeders
9. Futures Markets
Chicago: Corn, soybeans, cattle, hogs
Along with wheat (soft red), oats, rice
Kansas City: Wheat (hard red winter)
Minneapolis: Wheat (hard red spring)
Tokyo: Corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar
Has a market for Non-GMO soybeans
Other markets in Argentina, Brazil, China, and Europe
A market where contracts for physical commodities are
traded, the contracts set the terms of quantity, quality,
and delivery
10. The Cash and Futures Markets Are Related
Basis = Cash price – Futures price
Rearranging terms:
Cash price = Futures price + Basis
So national (and international) events can
affect local prices
11. Market Activities
Pricing the commodity
Establishing contracts
Merchandising the commodity among uses
Transporting the products
Storing the products
Managing and controlling the products
Managing production and price risks
12. Price Determination and Discovery
Price Determination
– is the broad forces of supply and demand
establishing a market clearing price for a
commodity.
Price Discovery
– is the process by which buyers and sellers
arrive at a specific price for a given lot of
produce at a given location for a specific
time period.
14. Futures Markets
Organized and centralized market
Today’s price for products to be delivered
in the future
A mechanism of trading promises of future
commodity deliveries among traders
15. Futures and Options
Market tools to help manage (share) price
risks
Mechanisms to establish commodity
trades among participants at a future time
Available from commodity exchanges /
futures markets
16. Agricultural Futures Markets
Has some unique features due to the nature of agricultural
businesses
Supply comes online a few times during the year
So at harvest, supply spikes, then diminishes until the
next harvest
Production decisions are based price forecasts
Planting decisions can be made a full year (or more)
before the crop price is realized
Users provide year-round demand
Livestock feeding, biofuel production, food demand
17. Futures Market Exchanges
Competitive markets
Open out-cry and electronic trading
Centralized pricing
Buyers and sellers are both in the market
Relevant information is conveyed through the bids
and offers for the trades
Bid = the price at which a trader would buy the
commodity
Offer = the price at which a trader would sell the
commodity
18. Futures Market Exchanges
Modern futures market began long ago
1848 -- Chicago Board of Trade
1898 -- Chicago Mercantile Exchange
2007 -- CME Group merged CBOT and CME
Highly regulated markets
Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC)
19. The View from the Corn Pit
Source: M. Spencer Green, AP Photo