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2 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018
Market Wrap-Up
NCDEX Market Wrap-Up
Commodity Contract
Previous
Close
Open High Low Close
% Change
in Price
% Change in
Open Interest
% Change
in Volume
Currency Market Wrap-Up
Currency Pair Contract
Previous
Close
Open High Low Close
Change in
Price (in%)
Continued…….
MCX Market Wrap-Up
Commodity Contract
Previous
Close
Open High Low Close
% Change in
Price
% Change in
Open Inter-
est
% Change
in Volume
Aluminium 31-Aug-18 138.75 139.00 147.00 138.60 143.75 3.60% -3.53% 61.64%
Copper 31-Aug-18 419.05 418.50 427.95 413.20 419.60 0.13% -3.37% -20.19%
Crude Oil 20-Aug-18 4686 4,717 4,812 4,556 4,674 -0.26% 1.07% -13.28%
Gold 05-Oct-18 29486 29690 29815 29546 29783 1.01% 1.53% 16.68%
Lead 31-Aug-18 145.35 145.35 148.65 143.15 144.9 -0.31% 14.20% -35.51%
Natural Gas 28-Aug-18 196.50 196 203.7 194.7 203.2 3.41% 62.70% 13.14%
Nickel 31-Aug-18 926.20 921.3 969.5 913.7 952.5 2.84% -10.95% -34.01%
Silver 05-Sep-18 38072 38099 38186 37774 37968 -0.27% 10.83% -3.78%
Zinc 31-Aug-18 180.65 180.25 185.10 176.20 176.40 -2.35% 56.84% -9.95%
Castor Seed 19-Sep-18 4767 4731 4827 4603 4714 -1.11% 3.54% -20.77%
Chana 19-Sep-18 4275 4275 4297 4119 4288 0.30% -0.31% 57.52%
Dhaniya 19-Sep-18 5093 5075 5108 4939 5029 -1.26% -0.57% -44.50%
COCUDAKL 19-Sep-18 1773.00 1780 1805 1729 1797 1.33% -9.07% -11.69%
Guargum5 16-Oct-18 9720 9670 9847 9291 9847 1.31% 1.70% -19.29%
Guarseed10 16-Oct-18 4447.50 4428 4573 4240 4573 2.81% -4.10% -5.88%
Jeera 19-Sep-18 20625 20590 20680 19770 19840 -3.81% 0.00% 14.88%
RMseed 19-Sep-18 4169 4165 4173 4101 4143 -0.62% -3.16% 35.63%
Ref Soya Oil 19-Sep-18 732.40 732 738 727 737 0.68% -10.91% 5.15%
Soyabean 16-Oct-18 3409 3410 3410 3332 3382 -0.79% 2.53% -39.95%
Turmeric 19-Sep-18 7232 7198 7340 7160 7188 -0.61% -15.33% 125.11%
Mentha Oil 31-Aug-18 1545.90 1559 1675 1520 1634 5.68% 2.06% 97.60%
USDINR 27-Jul-18 68.8575 68.7500 69.1725 68.5975 68.9925 0.20%
GBPINR 27-Jul-18 89.8000 89.5000 89.6000 88.0925 88.1875 -1.80%
JPYINR 27-Jul-18 61.7900 62.0900 62.2750 61.4500 61.7900 0.00%
EURINR 27-Jul-18 79.9900 79.7400 80.1250 79.1425 79.2175 -0.97%
3 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018
International Market Wrap-up
Commodity Exchange
Previous
Close
Open High Low Close % Change in Price
Market Wrap-Up
Aluminium LME 2028.00 2037.00 2147.25 2023.75 2092.50 3.18%
Copper COMEX 2.753 2.740 2.798 2.700 2.732 -0.76%
Crude Oil NYMEX 68.49 68.65 69.92 66.14 67.63 -1.26%
Gold COMEX 1214.20 1214.40 1216.40 1205.60 1211.10 -0.26%
Lead LME 2112.25 2119.50 2167.50 2074.25 2099.00 -0.63%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.853 2.851 2.959 2.822 2.944 3.19%
Nickel LME 13515.00 13502.50 14140.00 13305.00 13812.50 2.20%
Silver COMEX 15.406 15.390 15.425 15.280 15.266 -0.91%
Zinc LME 2606.50 2604.25 2673.50 2538.25 2540.25 -2.54%
4 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018
Inventory Updates
LME Inventory
Commodity
Closing (As on 10thAug18)
In tones
Closing (As on 3rd Aug18)
in tones
% Change in Price
Continued…….
Aluminium 1154050 1192075 -3.19%
Copper 252625 251450 0.47%
Lead 123575 126950 -2.66%
Nickel 249720 254070 -1.71%
Zinc 231125 236150 -2.13%
5 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018
Inventory Updates
6 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018
Market Next Week
Currency Weekly Pivots
Currency Pair Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
Continued…….
Upcoming Economic Events Calender
Time Currency Event Forecast Previous
Tuesday, August 14, 2018
14:00 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jun) 2.50% 2.50%
14:00 GBP Claimant Count Change (Jul) 3.8K 7.8K
14:00 GBP Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) 137.0K
14:00 GBP Unemployment Rate (Jun) 4.20% 4.20%
18:00 USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Jul) 0.20% 0.30%
18:00 USD Import Price Index (MoM) (Jul) 0.10% -0.40%
Wednesday, August 15, 2018
2:00 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock -6.000M
14:00 GBP CPI (MoM) (Jul) -0.10% 0.00%
14:00 GBP CPI (YoY) (Jul) 2.50% 2.40%
14:00 GBP CPIH (YoY) 2.30% 2.30%
14:00 GBP PPI Input (MoM) (Jul) 0.10% 0.20%
18:00 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 0.40% 0.40%
18:00 USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) 2.30% 0.40%
18:00 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Aug) 20.3 22.6
18:00 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 0.20% 0.50%
18:00 USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2) 0.30% 2.90%
18:45 USD Industrial Production (YoY) 3.80%
18:45 USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul) 0.30% 0.60%
19:30 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Jun) 0.20% 0.40%
20:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.213M -1.351M
20:00 USD Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.590M
Thursday, August 16, 2018
1:30 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Jun) 32.3B 45.6B
14:00 GBP Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 0.10% -0.60%
14:00 GBP Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) 2.80% 3.00%
14:00 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 0.20% -0.50%
14:00 GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) 3.00% 2.90%
18:00 USD Building Permits (Jul) 1.310M 1.292M
18:00 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Jul) 1.40% -0.70%
18:00 USD Housing Starts (MoM) (Jul) 7.40% -12.30%
18:00 USD Housing Starts (Jul) 1.270M 1.173M
18:00 USD Initial Jobless Claims 215K 213K
18:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) 22 25.7
18:00 USD Philly Fed Employment (Aug) 16.8
Friday, August 17, 2018
19:30 USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (Aug) 87.3
19:30 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug) 98 97.9
22:30 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 869
USDINR 29-Aug-18 70.0500 69.5000 69.2000 68.9000 68.6500 68.3500 67.7500
GBPINR 29-Aug-18 91.6500 90.1500 89.2000 88.6500 87.7000 87.1500 85.6500
JPYINR 29-Aug-18 63.5000 62.6500 62.2500 61.8500 61.4500 61.0500 60.2000
EURINR 29-Aug-18 81.4500 80.5000 79.8500 79.5000 78.9000 78.5000 77.5500
7 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018
MCX Weekly Pivots
Commodity Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
NCDEX Weekly Pivots
Commodity Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
Market Next Week
Aluminium 31-Aug-18 159.90 151.50 147.60 143.10 139.20 134.70 126.30
Copper 31-Aug-18 449.75 435.00 427.30 420.25 412.55 405.50 390.75
Crude Oil 20-Aug-18 5193 4937 4805 4681 4549 4425 4169
Gold 05-Oct-18 30253 29984 29883 29715 29614 29446 29177
Lead 31-Aug-18 156.55 151.05 147.95 145.55 142.45 140.05 134.55
Natural Gas 28-Aug-18 218.55 209.55 206.40 200.55 197.40 191.55 182.55
Nickel 31-Aug-18 1056.85 1001.05 976.80 945.25 921.00 889.45 833.65
Silver 05-Sep-18 38800 38388 38178 37976 37766 37564 37152
Zinc 31-Aug-18 197.05 188.15 182.30 179.25 173.40 170.35 161.45
Castor Seed 19-Sep-18 5163 4939 4826 4715 4602 4491 4267
Chana 19-Sep-18 4591 4413 4350 4235 4172 4057 3879
Dhaniya 19-Sep-18 5363 5194 5112 5025 4943 4856 4687
COCUDAKL 19-Sep-18 1929.65 1853.15 1824.80 1776.65 1748.30 1700.15 1623.65
Guargum5 16-Oct-18 10774 10218 10032 9662 9476 9106 8550
Guarseed10 16-Oct-18 5126.65 4794.15 4683.30 4461.65 4350.80 4129.15 3796.65
Jeera 19-Sep-18 21916.65 21006.65 20423.30 20096.65 19513.30 19186.65 18276.65
RMseed 19-Sep-18 4283 4211 4177 4139 4105 4067 3995
Ref Soya Oil 19-Sep-18 755.40 744.85 741.15 734.30 730.60 723.75 713.20
Soyabean 16-Oct-18 3531 3453 3417 3375 3339 3297 3219
Turmeric 19-Sep-18 7589 7409 7299 7229 7119 7049 6869
Mentha Oil 31-Aug-18 1919.6 1764.6 1699.1 1609.6 1544.1 1454.6 1299.6
8 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018
BULLION
Last week, spot gold prices traded lower by 0.2 percent to trade at $1210.24 per
ounce while MCX gold prices increased by 0.5 percent to Rs.29630 per 10 gms. Ris-
ing dollar on hopes or rising interest rates in the US and strong demand for US
Treasury bonds, refuge from trade tensions are near term push factors for the yel-
low metal. We expect gold prices to trade lower today as fall in Turkish Lira and
trade tensions between US and Turkey is leading all the investments to move in to
dollar and yen in turn pressurizing all the commodities including gold and silver.
BASE METALS
Aluminium will now be 20% and steel 50%. Our relations with Turkey are not good
at this time Trump added. Turkey exported 1.8 million tonnes of steel products
worth about $1.2 billion to the USA in 2017. The shipments to the US accounted
for about 9% of Turkey's total steel exports according to the Turkish Steel Produc-
ers Assn. Market participants in Turkey were mostly shocked by the decision and
believe that Turkish exports into the US will completely stop sources told Metal
Bulletin.
ENERGY
MCX Fundamentals
Oil prices dipped on Monday as rising trade tensions and economic woes in
emerging markets dented the outlook for fuel demand growth but U.S. sanctions
against Iran still pointed towards tighter supply. Front month Brent crude oil fu-
tures were at $72.57 per barrel at 0702 GMT down 24 cents or 0.3 percent from
their last close.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $67.43 a
barrel down 20 cents or 0.3 percent from their last settlement. The Energy Infor-
mation Administration released its report on US natural gas inventories, showing
another build up of 46 billion cubic feet in the week ending August 3 adding to
the 35B increase in the previous week while analysts expected a 49B addition.
9 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018
SPICES
NCDEX Fundamentals
OILSEEDS
GUAR COMPLEX
OTHERS
Near term sentiments remained weak for RM Seed with reports of NAFED
agency given permission to sell mustard in open market even s immediate
support is seen near the 4000 mark. However, at these lower levels, sellers
might refrain from fresh deals in mandis, and this might prevent any sharp
fall in futures prices from current levels. Soy bean futures failed to maintain
strength amid lack of fresh buying interest and nominal export query for soy
meal. With current spot prices turning cheaper demand prospects is most
likely to improve in near term.
Moderate weak trend was noted for Jeer last week as demand faltered at the
higher levels after the recent highs. Even as overall sentiments remained firm
on rising export and incoming Festive season domestic demand amidst falling
stocks in Indian and International markets some more short term dips are not
ruled out as traders wait for corrections before initiating fresh demand in the
mandis.approx as per traders.
Even as some profit booking was noted towards end of the week, overall sen-
timents looked firm for Mentha as arrivals started coming down. With har-
vesting getting over, the export and domestic demand for the new crop is on
the rise.Ref Soy Oil is likely to open the week on a Bearish note as USDA re-
ports for edible oils could pressurize market sentiments. With Monsoon ac-
tivities too improving over Central and North-West India, this factor too has
been pressurizing the entire oil complex sector on prospects of better sowing
for Soy bean.
Bullish trend prevailed for Guar last week with markets hitting upper circuit,
as lower rains in North-West regions of Rajasthan kept apprehensions of
lower sowing. Rising export demand amidst falling stocks are likely to support
prices in long term. Earlier, lower rains in Rajasthan had provided support to
prices as that reportedly has adverse impact on sowing. Bearish impact of
rains may be limited with prices having fallen a lot and are at very low levels.
10 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018
Last week Nickel open with positive sentiment and continue the same for the whole week. Last week Nickel made a
high of 969.50 and closed at 952.50 with overall marginal gain of 2.80% on weekly basis. For this week, if it breaks the
level of 985 on the upper side then it can test the level of 1025 during the week. One can make buy position in it by
maintaining a SL at 964.
Calls of the Week (MCX)
GOLD
NICKEL
WEEKLY STRATEGY
PARTICULAR DETAILS
WEEKLY STRATEGY
PARTICULAR DETAILS
Action Buy
Entry Range Above 29900
Target 30300
SL 29825
Action Buy
Entry Range Above 985
Target 1025
SL 964
From Last couple of weeks MCX Gold continuously trading in range between 29800 - 29500. On its 4 hourly chart mar-
ket recently broken its resistance trend line and sustaining above it indicating short term positive trend. Last week
Gold made a high of 29815 and closed at 29783 with overall marginal gain of 1% on weekly basis. For this week, if it
breaks the level of 29,900 on the upper side then it can test the level of 30,300 during the week. One can make buy
position in it by maintaining a SL at 29,825
11 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018
Chana market continuously trading above the important psychological level of 4000 from last couple of week and we
believe that market can continues its positive trend. Last week Chana made a high of 4,297 and closed at 4,288 with
overall marginal gain of 0.30% on weekly basis. For this week, if it breaks the level of 4405 on the upper side then it
can test the level of 4535 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL at 4350.
Calls of the Week (NCDEX)
CASTORSEED
CHANA
WEEKLY STRATEGY
PARTICULAR DETAILS
WEEKLY STRATEGY
PARTICULAR DETAILS
Last week Castor open with positive sentiment but found enough resistance near the level of 4800.Last week Castor
made a low of 4,603 and closed at 4,714 with overall marginal loss of 1% on weekly basis. On its daily market is con-
tinuously making higher highs and higher lows indicating negative trend for short term to mid term basis. For this
week, if it breaks the level of 4600 on the lower side then it can test the level of 4470 during the week. One can make
sell position in it by maintaining a SL at 4655.
Action Buy
Entry Range Above 4405
Target 4535
SL 4350
Action Sell
Entry Range Below 4600
Target 4470
SL 4655
12 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018
Calls of the Week (FOREX)
WEEKLY STRATEGY
PARTICULAR DETAILS
GBPINR
EURINR
WEEKLY STRATEGY
PARTICULAR DETAILS
From last couple of trading weeks market is trading with negative sentiment. It made a low 78.7500 and facing support
near the level of 79.0000 and getting bounce back from lower level. Last week EURINR made a low of 79.1425 and
closed at 79.2175 with overall marginal loss of 1% on weekly basis. On its hourly chart market is forming bullish flag
pattern indicating positive trend for this week. For this week, if it breaks the level of 80.0100 on the upper side then it
can test the level of 89.5975 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL at 88.7975.
Action Buy
Entry Range Below 89.0000
Target 89.5975
SL 88.6975
Action Buy
Entry Range Above 80.0100
Target 80.5975
SL 79.5975
Last week GBPINR open with negative sentiment but found enough support near the level of 88.0000.Last week
GBPINR made a low of 88.0925 and closed at 88.1875 with overall marginal loss of 1.80% on weekly basis. On its hourly
chart market is forming bullish flag pattern indicating positive trend for this week. For this week, if it breaks the level of
89.0000 on the upper side then it can test the level of 89.5975 during the week. One can make buy position in it by
maintaining a SL at 88.6975.
13 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018
LEGAL DISCLAIMER (कानूनी अस्वीकयण) :
This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are
based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended
recipient only.
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है| वेफसाइट के भाध्मभ से ककसी बी ब्राउक्ज़ंग का अथा है अस्वीकयण की स्वीकृ नत।
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issuer of products/ securities, this ensures that there is no actual or potential conflicts of interest. To ensure compliance with the regulatory body, we have resolved that the company
and all its representatives will not make any trades in the market.
हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोगी कं ऩननमां अनुसंधान रयऩोटा भें शालभर कं ऩननमों के साथ कायोफाय नहीं कयती हैं औय न ही ककसी बी तयह के उत्ऩादों / प्रनतबूनतमों के
जायीकताा के साथ जुडी हैं, जो मह सुननक्श्चत कयता है कक टहतों के लरए कोई वास्तववक मा संबाववत संघषा नहीं है | ननमाभक ननकाम के अनुऩारन को सुननक्श्चत कयने के लरए हभने मह तम ककमा है कक कं ऩनी
औय उसके कोई बी प्रनतननधध फाज़ाय भें ट्रेड नहीं कयेंगे।
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conditions of services published on website. No litigations have been filed against the company since the incorporation of the company by regulatory body.
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सभझने की बी सराह दी जाती है | कं ऩनी के ननगभन के फाद ननमाभक ननकाम द्वायाकं ऩनी के खखराप कोई भुकदभा (माधचका) दामय नहीं ककमा गमा है।
DISCLOSURE APPENDIX (प्रकटीकयण ऩरयलशष्ट ) :
The reports are prepared by analysts who are employed by High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. All the views expressed in this re- port herein accurately reflects
personal views about the subject company or companies & their securities and no part of compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations
or views contained in this research report.
रयऩोटा ववश्रेषकों द्वाया तैमाय की गमी है जो द्वाया हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड द्वाया ननमुवत हैं | इस रयऩोटा भें व्मवत सबी ववचाय कं ऩनी के फाये भें व्मक्वतगत ववचायों को
दशााता है औय कं ऩननमों औय उनकी प्रनतबूनतमां औय ऺनतऩूनता (भुआवजे) का कोई टहस्सा, मा इस शोध रयऩोटा भें ननटहत ववशेष सुझावों मा ववचायों से प्रत्मऺ मा अप्रत्मऺ रूऩ से संफंधधत नहीं होगा।
DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF CONFLICT OF INTEREST (टहतों के संघषा के भाभरे भें प्रकटीकयण ):
(a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or his associate or his relative has no financial interest in the subject company and the nature of such financial interest;
(अ) हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोगी मा उनके ककसी बी तत्कार रयश्तेदाय की ववषम कं ऩनी भें कोई ववत्तीम रुधच नहीं है औय न ही इस तयह की ववत्तीम टहत की
प्रकृ नत है|
(b) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates or relatives, have no actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more in the securities of the subject company,
(ब) हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोगी मा उनके ककसी बी तत्कार रयश्तेदाय की ववषम कं ऩनी की प्रनतबूनतमों भें एक प्रनतशत मा उससे अधधक के वास्तववक / पामदेभंद
स्वालभत्व नहीं हैं |
(c) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associate has no other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance;
(स) हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोधगमों को अनुसंधान रयऩोटा के प्रकाशन के सभम मा सावाजननक रूऩ से उऩक्स्थत होने के सभम कोई अन्म बौनतक संघषा नहीं है|
DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF COMPENSATION ( ऺनतऩूनता के संदबा भें प्रकटीकयण):
High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of
coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are salary based permanent employees of High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd.
हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड की ऩॉलरसी अऩने ववश्रेषकों, ऩेशेवयों को ववश्रेषक के ऺेत्र भें ककसी बी कं ऩनी की प्रनतबूनतमों के स्वाभी से ववश्रेषकों को रयऩोटा कयने से योकती है।
ववश्रेषक ऺनतऩूनता : ववश्रेषक हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड के वेतन आधारयत स्थामी कभाचायी है |
DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF PUBLIC APPEARANCE (सावाजननक प्रकटन के भाभरे भें प्रकटीकयण ) :
(a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates have not received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months;
(अ) हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोगीमों ने वऩिरे 12 भहीनों भें ववषम कं ऩनी से कोई भुआवजा प्राप्त नहीं ककमा है |
(b) The subject company is not now or never a client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
(ब) अनुसंधान रयऩोटा के ववतयण की नतधथ से ऩूवा फायह भहीनों के दौयान ववषम कं ऩनी अफ मा कबी बी ग्राहक नहीं यही है।
(c ) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates has never served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company;
(स) हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोगीमों ने ववषम कं ऩनी के अधधकायी, ननदेशक मा कभाचायी के रूऩ भें कबी बी काभ
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Commodity Research Report 16 August 2018 Ways2Capital

  • 1. HIGH BROW MARKET RESEARCH INVESTMENT ADVISOR PVT. LTD.
  • 2. 2 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018 Market Wrap-Up NCDEX Market Wrap-Up Commodity Contract Previous Close Open High Low Close % Change in Price % Change in Open Interest % Change in Volume Currency Market Wrap-Up Currency Pair Contract Previous Close Open High Low Close Change in Price (in%) Continued……. MCX Market Wrap-Up Commodity Contract Previous Close Open High Low Close % Change in Price % Change in Open Inter- est % Change in Volume Aluminium 31-Aug-18 138.75 139.00 147.00 138.60 143.75 3.60% -3.53% 61.64% Copper 31-Aug-18 419.05 418.50 427.95 413.20 419.60 0.13% -3.37% -20.19% Crude Oil 20-Aug-18 4686 4,717 4,812 4,556 4,674 -0.26% 1.07% -13.28% Gold 05-Oct-18 29486 29690 29815 29546 29783 1.01% 1.53% 16.68% Lead 31-Aug-18 145.35 145.35 148.65 143.15 144.9 -0.31% 14.20% -35.51% Natural Gas 28-Aug-18 196.50 196 203.7 194.7 203.2 3.41% 62.70% 13.14% Nickel 31-Aug-18 926.20 921.3 969.5 913.7 952.5 2.84% -10.95% -34.01% Silver 05-Sep-18 38072 38099 38186 37774 37968 -0.27% 10.83% -3.78% Zinc 31-Aug-18 180.65 180.25 185.10 176.20 176.40 -2.35% 56.84% -9.95% Castor Seed 19-Sep-18 4767 4731 4827 4603 4714 -1.11% 3.54% -20.77% Chana 19-Sep-18 4275 4275 4297 4119 4288 0.30% -0.31% 57.52% Dhaniya 19-Sep-18 5093 5075 5108 4939 5029 -1.26% -0.57% -44.50% COCUDAKL 19-Sep-18 1773.00 1780 1805 1729 1797 1.33% -9.07% -11.69% Guargum5 16-Oct-18 9720 9670 9847 9291 9847 1.31% 1.70% -19.29% Guarseed10 16-Oct-18 4447.50 4428 4573 4240 4573 2.81% -4.10% -5.88% Jeera 19-Sep-18 20625 20590 20680 19770 19840 -3.81% 0.00% 14.88% RMseed 19-Sep-18 4169 4165 4173 4101 4143 -0.62% -3.16% 35.63% Ref Soya Oil 19-Sep-18 732.40 732 738 727 737 0.68% -10.91% 5.15% Soyabean 16-Oct-18 3409 3410 3410 3332 3382 -0.79% 2.53% -39.95% Turmeric 19-Sep-18 7232 7198 7340 7160 7188 -0.61% -15.33% 125.11% Mentha Oil 31-Aug-18 1545.90 1559 1675 1520 1634 5.68% 2.06% 97.60% USDINR 27-Jul-18 68.8575 68.7500 69.1725 68.5975 68.9925 0.20% GBPINR 27-Jul-18 89.8000 89.5000 89.6000 88.0925 88.1875 -1.80% JPYINR 27-Jul-18 61.7900 62.0900 62.2750 61.4500 61.7900 0.00% EURINR 27-Jul-18 79.9900 79.7400 80.1250 79.1425 79.2175 -0.97%
  • 3. 3 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018 International Market Wrap-up Commodity Exchange Previous Close Open High Low Close % Change in Price Market Wrap-Up Aluminium LME 2028.00 2037.00 2147.25 2023.75 2092.50 3.18% Copper COMEX 2.753 2.740 2.798 2.700 2.732 -0.76% Crude Oil NYMEX 68.49 68.65 69.92 66.14 67.63 -1.26% Gold COMEX 1214.20 1214.40 1216.40 1205.60 1211.10 -0.26% Lead LME 2112.25 2119.50 2167.50 2074.25 2099.00 -0.63% Natural Gas NYMEX 2.853 2.851 2.959 2.822 2.944 3.19% Nickel LME 13515.00 13502.50 14140.00 13305.00 13812.50 2.20% Silver COMEX 15.406 15.390 15.425 15.280 15.266 -0.91% Zinc LME 2606.50 2604.25 2673.50 2538.25 2540.25 -2.54%
  • 4. 4 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018 Inventory Updates LME Inventory Commodity Closing (As on 10thAug18) In tones Closing (As on 3rd Aug18) in tones % Change in Price Continued……. Aluminium 1154050 1192075 -3.19% Copper 252625 251450 0.47% Lead 123575 126950 -2.66% Nickel 249720 254070 -1.71% Zinc 231125 236150 -2.13%
  • 5. 5 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018 Inventory Updates
  • 6. 6 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018 Market Next Week Currency Weekly Pivots Currency Pair Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Continued……. Upcoming Economic Events Calender Time Currency Event Forecast Previous Tuesday, August 14, 2018 14:00 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jun) 2.50% 2.50% 14:00 GBP Claimant Count Change (Jul) 3.8K 7.8K 14:00 GBP Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) 137.0K 14:00 GBP Unemployment Rate (Jun) 4.20% 4.20% 18:00 USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Jul) 0.20% 0.30% 18:00 USD Import Price Index (MoM) (Jul) 0.10% -0.40% Wednesday, August 15, 2018 2:00 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock -6.000M 14:00 GBP CPI (MoM) (Jul) -0.10% 0.00% 14:00 GBP CPI (YoY) (Jul) 2.50% 2.40% 14:00 GBP CPIH (YoY) 2.30% 2.30% 14:00 GBP PPI Input (MoM) (Jul) 0.10% 0.20% 18:00 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 0.40% 0.40% 18:00 USD Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) 2.30% 0.40% 18:00 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Aug) 20.3 22.6 18:00 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 0.20% 0.50% 18:00 USD Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2) 0.30% 2.90% 18:45 USD Industrial Production (YoY) 3.80% 18:45 USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul) 0.30% 0.60% 19:30 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Jun) 0.20% 0.40% 20:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.213M -1.351M 20:00 USD Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.590M Thursday, August 16, 2018 1:30 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Jun) 32.3B 45.6B 14:00 GBP Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 0.10% -0.60% 14:00 GBP Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) 2.80% 3.00% 14:00 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 0.20% -0.50% 14:00 GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) 3.00% 2.90% 18:00 USD Building Permits (Jul) 1.310M 1.292M 18:00 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Jul) 1.40% -0.70% 18:00 USD Housing Starts (MoM) (Jul) 7.40% -12.30% 18:00 USD Housing Starts (Jul) 1.270M 1.173M 18:00 USD Initial Jobless Claims 215K 213K 18:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) 22 25.7 18:00 USD Philly Fed Employment (Aug) 16.8 Friday, August 17, 2018 19:30 USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (Aug) 87.3 19:30 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug) 98 97.9 22:30 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 869 USDINR 29-Aug-18 70.0500 69.5000 69.2000 68.9000 68.6500 68.3500 67.7500 GBPINR 29-Aug-18 91.6500 90.1500 89.2000 88.6500 87.7000 87.1500 85.6500 JPYINR 29-Aug-18 63.5000 62.6500 62.2500 61.8500 61.4500 61.0500 60.2000 EURINR 29-Aug-18 81.4500 80.5000 79.8500 79.5000 78.9000 78.5000 77.5500
  • 7. 7 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018 MCX Weekly Pivots Commodity Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 NCDEX Weekly Pivots Commodity Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Market Next Week Aluminium 31-Aug-18 159.90 151.50 147.60 143.10 139.20 134.70 126.30 Copper 31-Aug-18 449.75 435.00 427.30 420.25 412.55 405.50 390.75 Crude Oil 20-Aug-18 5193 4937 4805 4681 4549 4425 4169 Gold 05-Oct-18 30253 29984 29883 29715 29614 29446 29177 Lead 31-Aug-18 156.55 151.05 147.95 145.55 142.45 140.05 134.55 Natural Gas 28-Aug-18 218.55 209.55 206.40 200.55 197.40 191.55 182.55 Nickel 31-Aug-18 1056.85 1001.05 976.80 945.25 921.00 889.45 833.65 Silver 05-Sep-18 38800 38388 38178 37976 37766 37564 37152 Zinc 31-Aug-18 197.05 188.15 182.30 179.25 173.40 170.35 161.45 Castor Seed 19-Sep-18 5163 4939 4826 4715 4602 4491 4267 Chana 19-Sep-18 4591 4413 4350 4235 4172 4057 3879 Dhaniya 19-Sep-18 5363 5194 5112 5025 4943 4856 4687 COCUDAKL 19-Sep-18 1929.65 1853.15 1824.80 1776.65 1748.30 1700.15 1623.65 Guargum5 16-Oct-18 10774 10218 10032 9662 9476 9106 8550 Guarseed10 16-Oct-18 5126.65 4794.15 4683.30 4461.65 4350.80 4129.15 3796.65 Jeera 19-Sep-18 21916.65 21006.65 20423.30 20096.65 19513.30 19186.65 18276.65 RMseed 19-Sep-18 4283 4211 4177 4139 4105 4067 3995 Ref Soya Oil 19-Sep-18 755.40 744.85 741.15 734.30 730.60 723.75 713.20 Soyabean 16-Oct-18 3531 3453 3417 3375 3339 3297 3219 Turmeric 19-Sep-18 7589 7409 7299 7229 7119 7049 6869 Mentha Oil 31-Aug-18 1919.6 1764.6 1699.1 1609.6 1544.1 1454.6 1299.6
  • 8. 8 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018 BULLION Last week, spot gold prices traded lower by 0.2 percent to trade at $1210.24 per ounce while MCX gold prices increased by 0.5 percent to Rs.29630 per 10 gms. Ris- ing dollar on hopes or rising interest rates in the US and strong demand for US Treasury bonds, refuge from trade tensions are near term push factors for the yel- low metal. We expect gold prices to trade lower today as fall in Turkish Lira and trade tensions between US and Turkey is leading all the investments to move in to dollar and yen in turn pressurizing all the commodities including gold and silver. BASE METALS Aluminium will now be 20% and steel 50%. Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time Trump added. Turkey exported 1.8 million tonnes of steel products worth about $1.2 billion to the USA in 2017. The shipments to the US accounted for about 9% of Turkey's total steel exports according to the Turkish Steel Produc- ers Assn. Market participants in Turkey were mostly shocked by the decision and believe that Turkish exports into the US will completely stop sources told Metal Bulletin. ENERGY MCX Fundamentals Oil prices dipped on Monday as rising trade tensions and economic woes in emerging markets dented the outlook for fuel demand growth but U.S. sanctions against Iran still pointed towards tighter supply. Front month Brent crude oil fu- tures were at $72.57 per barrel at 0702 GMT down 24 cents or 0.3 percent from their last close.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $67.43 a barrel down 20 cents or 0.3 percent from their last settlement. The Energy Infor- mation Administration released its report on US natural gas inventories, showing another build up of 46 billion cubic feet in the week ending August 3 adding to the 35B increase in the previous week while analysts expected a 49B addition.
  • 9. 9 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018 SPICES NCDEX Fundamentals OILSEEDS GUAR COMPLEX OTHERS Near term sentiments remained weak for RM Seed with reports of NAFED agency given permission to sell mustard in open market even s immediate support is seen near the 4000 mark. However, at these lower levels, sellers might refrain from fresh deals in mandis, and this might prevent any sharp fall in futures prices from current levels. Soy bean futures failed to maintain strength amid lack of fresh buying interest and nominal export query for soy meal. With current spot prices turning cheaper demand prospects is most likely to improve in near term. Moderate weak trend was noted for Jeer last week as demand faltered at the higher levels after the recent highs. Even as overall sentiments remained firm on rising export and incoming Festive season domestic demand amidst falling stocks in Indian and International markets some more short term dips are not ruled out as traders wait for corrections before initiating fresh demand in the mandis.approx as per traders. Even as some profit booking was noted towards end of the week, overall sen- timents looked firm for Mentha as arrivals started coming down. With har- vesting getting over, the export and domestic demand for the new crop is on the rise.Ref Soy Oil is likely to open the week on a Bearish note as USDA re- ports for edible oils could pressurize market sentiments. With Monsoon ac- tivities too improving over Central and North-West India, this factor too has been pressurizing the entire oil complex sector on prospects of better sowing for Soy bean. Bullish trend prevailed for Guar last week with markets hitting upper circuit, as lower rains in North-West regions of Rajasthan kept apprehensions of lower sowing. Rising export demand amidst falling stocks are likely to support prices in long term. Earlier, lower rains in Rajasthan had provided support to prices as that reportedly has adverse impact on sowing. Bearish impact of rains may be limited with prices having fallen a lot and are at very low levels.
  • 10. 10 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018 Last week Nickel open with positive sentiment and continue the same for the whole week. Last week Nickel made a high of 969.50 and closed at 952.50 with overall marginal gain of 2.80% on weekly basis. For this week, if it breaks the level of 985 on the upper side then it can test the level of 1025 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL at 964. Calls of the Week (MCX) GOLD NICKEL WEEKLY STRATEGY PARTICULAR DETAILS WEEKLY STRATEGY PARTICULAR DETAILS Action Buy Entry Range Above 29900 Target 30300 SL 29825 Action Buy Entry Range Above 985 Target 1025 SL 964 From Last couple of weeks MCX Gold continuously trading in range between 29800 - 29500. On its 4 hourly chart mar- ket recently broken its resistance trend line and sustaining above it indicating short term positive trend. Last week Gold made a high of 29815 and closed at 29783 with overall marginal gain of 1% on weekly basis. For this week, if it breaks the level of 29,900 on the upper side then it can test the level of 30,300 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL at 29,825
  • 11. 11 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018 Chana market continuously trading above the important psychological level of 4000 from last couple of week and we believe that market can continues its positive trend. Last week Chana made a high of 4,297 and closed at 4,288 with overall marginal gain of 0.30% on weekly basis. For this week, if it breaks the level of 4405 on the upper side then it can test the level of 4535 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL at 4350. Calls of the Week (NCDEX) CASTORSEED CHANA WEEKLY STRATEGY PARTICULAR DETAILS WEEKLY STRATEGY PARTICULAR DETAILS Last week Castor open with positive sentiment but found enough resistance near the level of 4800.Last week Castor made a low of 4,603 and closed at 4,714 with overall marginal loss of 1% on weekly basis. On its daily market is con- tinuously making higher highs and higher lows indicating negative trend for short term to mid term basis. For this week, if it breaks the level of 4600 on the lower side then it can test the level of 4470 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL at 4655. Action Buy Entry Range Above 4405 Target 4535 SL 4350 Action Sell Entry Range Below 4600 Target 4470 SL 4655
  • 12. 12 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018 Calls of the Week (FOREX) WEEKLY STRATEGY PARTICULAR DETAILS GBPINR EURINR WEEKLY STRATEGY PARTICULAR DETAILS From last couple of trading weeks market is trading with negative sentiment. It made a low 78.7500 and facing support near the level of 79.0000 and getting bounce back from lower level. Last week EURINR made a low of 79.1425 and closed at 79.2175 with overall marginal loss of 1% on weekly basis. On its hourly chart market is forming bullish flag pattern indicating positive trend for this week. For this week, if it breaks the level of 80.0100 on the upper side then it can test the level of 89.5975 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL at 88.7975. Action Buy Entry Range Below 89.0000 Target 89.5975 SL 88.6975 Action Buy Entry Range Above 80.0100 Target 80.5975 SL 79.5975 Last week GBPINR open with negative sentiment but found enough support near the level of 88.0000.Last week GBPINR made a low of 88.0925 and closed at 88.1875 with overall marginal loss of 1.80% on weekly basis. On its hourly chart market is forming bullish flag pattern indicating positive trend for this week. For this week, if it breaks the level of 89.0000 on the upper side then it can test the level of 89.5975 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL at 88.6975.
  • 13. 13 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 14/08/2018 LEGAL DISCLAIMER (कानूनी अस्वीकयण) : This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. मह दस्तावेज़ Ways2Capital (हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड का एक बाग) द्वाया तैमाय ककमा गमा है | महां ऩय दी गई जानकायी, ववश्रेषण औय अनुभान Ways2Capital इक्ववटी / कभोडडटी अनुसंधान के भूलमांकन ऩय आधारयत हैं औय ववश्वसनीम स्रोतों से प्राप्त की गई है | मह दस्तावेज़ के वर इक्छित प्राप्तकताा के उऩमोग के लरए ही है | This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. 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