Commodity Research Report 12 February 2018 Ways2Capital

Monday, February 12, 2018
HIGH BROW MARKET RESEARCH INVESTMENT ADVISOR PVT. LTD.

Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved
2
MCX Market Wrap-up
Commodity Contract
Previous
Close
Open High Low Close
Change in
Price (in %)
Change in OI
(in %)
Change in
Volume (in %)
Aluminum 28-Feb-18 141.7 141.25 141.7 136.8 137.1 -3.25% -9.66% 86.25%
Copper 28-Feb-18 452.75 452.7 462.2 432.3 432.9 -4.38% 44.63% -4.63%
Crude Oil 16-Feb-18 4186 4166 4197 3795 3807 -9.05% -36.20% -2.20%
Gold 5-Apr-18 30336 30250 30714 29805 30009 -1.08% -19.14% -11.78%
Lead 28-Feb-18 171.9 171.2 171.85 160.2 163.6 -4.83% -19.96% 7.70%
Natural Gas 23-Feb-18 184.9 183.9 185.7 166.9 167.2 -9.57% 52.18% -20.12%
Nickel 28-Feb-18 866.8 861.2 886.2 822.1 834 -3.78% 0.21% -29.89%
Silver 5-Mar-18 38651 38480 39114 37540 37578 -2.78% 20.18% -33.46%
Zinc 28-Feb-18 226.4 226.4 228.7 216.6 218.15 -3.64% -12.60% 28.30%
NCDEX Market Wrap-up
Commodity Contract
Previous
Close
Open High Low Close
Change in
Price (in %)
Change in
OI (in %)
Change in
Volume (in %)
Castor Seed 20-Mar-18 4327 4302 4364 4158 4177 -3.59% -9.47% 48.45%
Chana 20-Mar-18 3803 3788 3880 3777 3819 0.42% -4.03% -13.07%
Dhaniya 20-Apr-18 5809 5820 5860 5655 5712 -1.70% 1.17% -22.59%
Cottonseed Oil
Cake
20-Mar-18 1767.5 1758 1760 1675 1740.5 -1.55% 10.16% 50.10%
Guargum5 20-Mar-18 10540 10442 10520 9763 9946 -5.97% -2.80% -30.04%
Guarseed10 20-Feb-18 4768 4732.5 4732.5 4411 4497 -6.03% -7.30% 9.21%
Jeera 20-Mar-18 16590 16640 16980 16300 16420 -1.04% -5.83% -35.60%
Kapas 30-Apr-18 980 977 1001 966 983.5 0.36% -9.09% 74.75%
RMseed 20-Apr-18 4150 4147 4162 4075 4123 -0.65% -17.29% -18.48%
Ref Soya Oil 20-Feb-18 748.05 747 749 739.3 744.15 -0.52% -17.53% 92.86%
Soyabean 20-Mar-18 3670 3658 3831 3492 3790 3.17% -3.11% 115.82%
Turmeric 20-Apr-18 7148 7150 7388 7040 7278 1.79% 1.58% -47.71%
Mentha Oil 28-Feb-18 1571 1562 1572.5 1395.5 1436.5 -9.36% -28.08% -23.57%
Currency Market Wrap-up
Currency Pair Contract Previous Close Open High Low Close
Change in Price
(in %)
USDINR 26-Feb-18 64.2425 64.4000 64.6475 64.1850 64.5275 0.44%
GBPINR 26-Feb-18 91.435 91.0475 91.0500 89.2400 89.675 -1.92%
EURINR 26-Feb-18 80.3475 80.5975 80.5975 78.8425 79.125 -1.52%
JPYINR 26-Feb-18 58.0575 58.6500 59.5425 58.3850 59.165 1.91%
Continued……

3
International Market Wrap-up
Commodity Exchange
Previous
Close
Open High Low Close
Change in Price
(in %)
Aluminum LME 2213 2214 2214.75 2120.75 2123.75 -4.03%
Copper COMEX 3.182 3.216 3.24 3.021 3.025 -4.93%
Crude Oil NYMEX 65.07 65.1 65.4 58.07 59.2 -9.02%
Gold COMEX 1335.7 1334.6 1349.3 1309 1315.7 -1.50%
Lead LME 2669 2668 2673.5 2480.5 2537.25 -4.94%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.863 2.825 2.88 2.576 2.584 -9.75%
Nickel LME 13512.5 13455 13817.5 12790 12950 -4.16%
Silver COMEX 16.555 16.555 16.955 16.13 16.31 -1.48%
Zinc LME 3511.5 3507.5 3549.75 3352 3370.25 -4.02%

4
LME Inventory Update
Commodity Closing (As on 9
nd
Feb 18) in Tonnes Closing (As on 2
nd
Feb 18) in Tonnes % Change
Copper 304675 316100 -3.61%
Nickel 355266 343896 3.31%
Lead 133250 126950 4.96%
Zinc 170700 162725 4.90%
Aluminium 1080550 1058175 2.11%
Continued…….

5

6
Upcoming Economic Events Calender
Time Currency Event Forecast Previous
Monday, February 12, 2018
Tentative USD OPEC Monthly Report
Tuesday, February 13, 2018
0:30 USD Federal Budget Balance (Jan) 50.2B -23.0B
14:30 USD IEA Monthly Report
15:00 GBP CPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.60% 0.40%
15:00 GBP CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.90% 3.00%
15:00 GBP PPI Input (MoM) (Jan) 0.70% 0.10%
18:30 USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
Wednesday, February 14, 2018
19:00 USD Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) 1.70% 1.80%
19:00 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.20% 0.30%
19:00 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.20% 0.40%
19:00 USD CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.30% 0.10%
19:00 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.50% 0.40%
20:30 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Dec) 0.40% 0.40%
21:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.189M 1.895M
Thursday, February 15, 2018
19:00 USD Core PPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.20% -0.10%
19:00 USD Initial Jobless Claims 229K 221K
19:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) 22.1 22.2
19:00 USD Philly Fed Employment (Feb) 16.8
19:00 USD PPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.40% -0.10%
19:45 USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) 0.20% 0.90%
Friday, February 16, 2018
15:00 GBP Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.60% -1.60%
15:00 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.60% -1.50%
19:00 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Jan) -0.20%
19:00 USD Building Permits (Jan) 1.310M 1.300M
19:00 USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Jan) 0.30% -0.10%
19:00 USD Housing Starts (MoM) (Jan) -8.20%
Currency Weekly Pivots
Currency Pair Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
USDINR 26-Feb-18 65.4000 64.9000 64.7000 64.4500 64.2500 64.0000 63.5500
GBPINR 26-Feb-18 93.6000 91.8000 90.7500 90.0000 88.9500 88.2000 86.4000
EURINR 26-Feb-18 83.0000 81.2500 80.1500 79.5000 78.4000 77.7500 76.0000
JPYINR 26-Feb-18 61.3500 60.2000 59.7000 59.0500 58.5500 57.9000 56.7500

7
MCX Weekly Pivots
Commodity Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
Aluminium 31-Jan-18 148.35 143.45 140.30 138.55 135.40 133.65 128.75
Copper 28-Feb-18 502.25 472.35 452.6 442.45 422.7 412.55 382.65
Crude Oil 16-Feb-18 4737 4335 4071 3933 3669 3531 3129
Gold 5-Feb-18 31994 31085 30547 30176 29638 29267 28358
Lead 31-Jan-18 188.5 176.85 170.2 165.2 158.55 153.55 141.90
Natural Gas 23-Feb-18 210.85 192.05 179.6 173.25 160.8 154.45 135.65
Nickel 31-Jan-18 976 912 873 847 809 783 719
Silver 5-Mar-18 41225 39651 38615 38077 37041 36503 34929
Zinc 31-Jan-18 245.35 233.25 225.7 221.15 213.6 209.05 196.95
NCDEX Weekly Pivots
Commodity Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
Castor Seed 20-Mar-18 4645 4439 4308 4233 4102 4027 3821
Chana 20-Mar-18 4031 3928 3874 3825 3771 3722 3619
Dhaniya 20-Apr-18 6152 5947 5830 5742 5625 5537 5332
Cotton Seed
Oilcake
20-Mar-18 1895 1810 1775 1725 1690 1640 1555
Guargum5 20-Mar-18 11590 10833 10390 10076 9633 9319 8562
Guarseed10 20-Feb-18 5190 4868 4683 4547 4361 4225 3904
Jeera 20-Mar-18 17927 17247 16833 16567 16153 15887 15207
Kapas 30-Apr-18 1054 1019 1001 984 966 949 914
RMseed 20-Apr-18 4294 4207 4165 4120 4078 4033 3946
Ref Soya Oil 20-Feb-18 764 754 749 744 739 734 725
Soyabean 20-Mar-18 4382 4043 3917 3704 3578 3365 3026
Turmeric 20-Apr-18 7931 7583 7431 7235 7083 6887 6539
Mentha Oil 28-Feb-18 1822 1645 1541 1468 1364 1291 1114

8
BULLION
Gold prices plunged on Friday as the dollar strengthened after the latest U.S. jobs
report showed that the economy added more jobs than forecast in January and wage
growth accelerated. Gold futures for April delivery settled down 0.91% at $1,335.70
on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. For the week, prices
were down 1.47%. The U.S. economy created 200,000 new jobs last month, the Labor
Department reported Friday and average hourly earnings rose 2.9% from a year
earlier, the most since 2009.
BASE METALS
Zinc prices surged to the highest since 2007 on January 29th 2018 as falling stockpiles
suggested tight supplies, drives zinc prices to new highs. Shortages of refined metal
have seen stocks in LME approved warehouses fall to their lowest since 2008 at
176,275 tonnes. Aluminium ended up 0.3 percent at $2,225, having earlier hit a two-
week low as rising stockpiles in top producer China reinforce worries that the Chinese
market remains in surplus despite capacity cuts.
ENERGY
Oil prices finished lower on Friday to tally a loss for the week, as traders weighed a
steady increase in U.S. output against OPEC's ongoing efforts to drain the market of
excess supplies. For the week, WTI crude lost roughly 1%, while Brent declined about
2.8%. However at MCX due to weak rupee against US dollar it dropped only 0.1 per
cent.
Natural gas futures plunged more than 8 per cent for the last week at NYMEX
and around 7.5 per cent at MCX, after weather forecasts showed that
temperatures will not be as cold as previously expected.

9
SPICES
Slight weak trend prevailed for Jeer last week as lack of strong demand amidst
expected rising arrivals of the new crop kept pressure on prices. Shifting from
Dhaniya to Jeer due to the latter high prices last year ensured 35% rise in
acreage for Jeer in Gujaratas per traders. Production in Gujarat estimated at
around 2.75 lakh tonnes (approximately 50 lakh bags weighing 55 kg each) last
year is likely to touch 4.12 lakh tonnes this year as per traders.
Turmeric found strong psychological support at 7000 as markets recovered after
the recent fall. Sentiments still have not turned positive as new crop arrivals pick
up with limited demand as of now, even as short term recovery gets noted.
OIL & OILSEEDS
Improving spot demand for soy meal and frequent reports of lower crop size
of India and further drop in Argentine crop production outlook helped soy
bean to recover early week losses and finish on a strong note. We expect
same fundamentals to continue influencing soy bean prices and In case
soy meal demand remains firm then expect the new highs in coming
sessions.
Soya oil is currently trading in a moderate range and it seems that due to rising
prices of soy bean and soy meal, the physical market participants are forced to
price the commodity lower, just to maintain the crushing activity economically
feasible.
GUAR COMPLEX
Profit booking at the higher levels brought some dips to the rising rates for Guar
even as overall fundamentals looked strong from a medium to long term point
of view. Guarseed is facing strong resistance at 5000 as Gum trades near the
10000 mark. Medium term trend remains up due to rising concerns on
production front from recent crop losses due to excess rains in Rajasthan just
few months back.
OTHERS
As per the latest sowing data the sowing area covered is roughly 51.4 lakh ha so
far versus 57.8 lakh ha last year. Going by trade sources roughly 7-8 Lakh bags
are available in the domestic market in the form of stocked inventory and which
will be easily offsetting the requirements till February March i.e. arrival of the
new season crop.
Market are however likely to recover this week. Falling production prospects
from reports of crop damage in India had supported prices earlier. The
Agriculture Ministry estimated acreage during 2017-18 season (Oct-Sep) will
rise 12% last year. Yield is also likely to go up in view of good monsoon
witnessed across all cotton growing regions.

10
SILVER
Silver prices reacted towards south with negative returns of 2.88 percent last week. However it is a choppy range where
prices are struggling for last one month. As the counter has got support near Rs.37500 level or $16.20/oz mark which
has been a strong ground area below the level we can see further selling pressure. Daily stochastic oscillator has come
in to selling territory. On the higher side prices may retest upside resistance zone of Rs.37800-38000 zone.
WEEKLY STRATEGY
Particular Details
ACTION SELL
ENTRY PRICE BELOW 37500
TARGET 37000
STOP LOSS 37800
ZINC
Last week, Nickel prices opened lower and prices corrected sharply for most of the week till low of 216.60. Previously
prices have rallied strongly in the last month after taking strong support at its short term rising trend line. Daily RSI (14)
has given a positive signal. Prices are expected to go higher from these levels towards next strong resistance zone
placed around 830.
WEEKLY STRATEGY
Particular Details
ACTION BUY
ENTRY PRICE ABOVE 220
TARGET 223
STOP LOSS 218.60

11
Calthe Week (NCDEX)
DHANIYA
The Dhaniya is long to medium term inbearish phase .Currently Dhaniya is showing some corrective move with less
volume indicating negative pressure in it. Caution note selling at lower levels seems risky we advise to sell Dhaniya at
higher level. The oscillator is on SELL signal and Dhaniya is coming down from overbought level For short term Dhaniya
is in sell position. Support for the Dhaniya is 5572. Resistance for the Dhaniya is 5860.
WEEKLY STRATEGY
Particular Details
ACTION SELL
TARGET 5535
STOP LOSS 5719
CASTOR SEED
Overall trend of the Castor seed new is bearish for medium long term .Currently Castor seed new is in strong down
trend with good momentum and the trend is supported with good volume. The Castor seed new is now trading in
oversold level. The oscillator is showing SELL signal For short term Castor seed new is in hold short position. Immediate
support for Castor seed new is 4050 .Resistance for the Castor seed new is 4270.
WEEKLY STRATEGY
Particular Details
ACTION SELL
TARGET 3952
STOP LOSS 4136

12
Calls of e Week (FOREX)
GBPINR
Last week we good saw profit booking in GBPINR Feb Futures from the higher levels and it made a low of 89.2400 during
the week. It closed at 89.6750 with the overall loss of 1.92% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can further
expect downside movement in and below the level of 89.1400, it can test the level of 88.5525 during the week. One can
make sell position in it by maintaining a SL of 89.5525.
WEEKLY STRATEGY
Particular Details
ACTION SELL
ENTRY PRICE BELOW 89.1400
TARGET 88.5525
STOP LOSS 89.5525
JPYINR
Last week JPYINR Feb futures started the week on flat note and after that traded positive for the most part of the week.
It made a high of 59.5425 during the week and closed at 56.1650 with the overall gain of 1.12% on weekly basis.
Technically for this week, we can expect further upside movement in it as it sustaining near to major resistance level and
above the level of 59.30000, it can test the level of 59.8250. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL of
58.9925.
WEEKLY STRATEGY
Particular Details
ACTION BUY
ENTRY PRICE ABOVE 59.3000
TARGET 59.8250
STOP LOSS 58.9925

13
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14
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रयऩोटा ववश्रेषकों द्वाया तैमाय की गमी है जो द्वाया हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड द्वाया ननमुवत हैं | इस रयऩोटा भें व्मवत सबी
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ननटहत ववशेष सुझावों मा ववचायों से प्रत्मऺ मा अप्रत्मऺ रूऩ से संफंधधत नहीं होगा।
DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF CONFLICT OF INTEREST:
टहतों के संघषा के भाभरे भें प्रकटीकयण:
(a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or his associate or his relative has no financial interest in the subject company and the nature of such financial
interest;
(अ) हाई ब्रो भार्के ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहर्काय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसर्के सहमोगी मा उनर्के कर्कसी बी तत्र्कार रयश्तेदाय र्की ववषम र्कं ऩनी भें र्कोई ववत्तीम रुचि
नह ं है औय न ह इस तयह र्की ववत्तीम हहत र्की प्रर्कृ नत है|
(b) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates or relatives, have no actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more in the securities of
the subject company,
(फ) हाई ब्रो भार्के ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहर्काय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसर्के सहमोगी मा उनर्के कर्कसी बी तत्र्कार रयश्तेदाय र्की ववषम र्कं ऩनी र्की प्रनतबूनतमों भें एर्क
प्रनतशत मा उससे अचधर्क र्के वास्तववर्क / पामदेभंद स्वालभत्व नह ं हैं |
(c) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associate has no other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at
the time of public appearance;
(स) हाई ब्रो भार्के ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहर्काय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसर्के सहमोचगमों र्को अनुसंधान रयऩोटट र्के प्रर्काशन र्के सभम मा सावटजननर्क रूऩ से उऩस्स्थत
होने र्के सभम र्कोई अन्म बौनतर्क संघषट नह ं है|
DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF COMPENSATION:
ऺनतऩूनताके संदबा भें प्रकटीकयण:
High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts from owning securities of any
company in the analyst's area of coverage.
Analyst compensation: Analysts are salary based permanent employees of High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd.
हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड की ऩॉलरसी अऩने ववश्रेषकों, ऩेशेवयों को ववश्रेषक के ऺेत्र भें ककसी बी कं ऩनी की प्रनतबूनतमों के
स्वाभी से ववश्रेषकों को रयऩोटा कयने से योकती है।
ववश्रेषक ऺनतऩूनता : ववश्रेषक हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड के वेतन आधारयत स्थामी कभाचायी है |
DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF PUBLIC APPEARANCE:
सावाजननकप्रकटन के भाभरे भें प्रकटीकयण:
(a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates have not received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months;
(अ) हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोगीमों ने वऩिरे 12 भहीनों भें ववषम कं ऩनी से कोई भुआवजा प्राप्त नहीं ककमा है |
(b) The subject company is not now or never a client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
(ब) अनुसंधान रयऩोटट र्के ववतयण र्की नतचथ से ऩूवट फायह भह नों र्के दौयान ववषम र्कं ऩनी अफ मा र्कबी बी ग्राहर्क नह ं यह है।
(c) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates has never served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company;
(स) हाई ब्रो भार्के ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहर्काय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसर्के सहमोगीमों ने ववषम र्कं ऩनी र्के अचधर्काय , ननदेशर्क मा र्कभटिाय र्के रूऩ भें र्कबी बी र्काभ
नह ं कर्कमा है
(d) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. has never been engaged in market making activity for the subject company.
(द) हाई ब्रो भार्के ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहर्काय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड ववषम र्कं ऩनी र्के लरए र्कबी बी ववऩणन (भार्के ट भेकर्कं ग) गनतववचध भें शालभर नह ं यहा है ।

Commodity Research Report 12 February 2018 Ways2Capital

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Commodity Research Report 12 February 2018 Ways2Capital