Commodity research report 10 july 2018 ways2 capital

HIGH BROW MARKET RESEARCH INVESTMENT ADVISOR PVT. LTD.

2 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 10/07/2018
Market Wrap-Up
NCDEX Market Wrap-Up
Commodity Contract
Previous
Close
Open High Low Close
% Change
in Price
% Change in
Open Interest
% Change
in Volume
Currency Market Wrap-Up
Currency Pair Contract
Previous
Close
Open High Low Close
Change in
Price (in%)
Continued…….
MCX Market Wrap-Up
Commodity Contract
Previous
Close
Open High Low Close
% Change in
Price
% Change in
Open Inter-
est
% Change
in Volume
Aluminium 31-Jul-18 149.70 146.70 147.50 143.10 143.85 -3.91% -21.99% -31.77%
Copper 31-Aug-18 452.30 451.70 453.20 427.55 431.60 -4.58% 22.72% 9.84%
Crude Oil 19-Jul-18 5086 5036 5173 4971 5075 -0.22% 5.30% 22.54%
Gold 03-Aug-18 30432 30399 30737 30244 30560 0.42% -6.41% -37.89%
Lead 31-Jul-18 165.55 165.55 166.75 159.05 161.55 -2.42% -39.40% 12.22%
Natural Gas 26-Jul-18 200.80 200.00 200.80 194.70 196.70 -2.04% 12.87% -12.49%
Nickel 31-Jul-18 1023.40 1020.90 1020.90 954.10 958.90 -6.30% -10.84% 11.33%
Silver 05-Sep-18 39921 39800 40050 39269 39766 -0.39% 0.55% -68.90%
Zinc 31-Jul-18 198.00 198.30 199.85 185.35 190.60 -3.74% -4.23% 24.53%
Castor Seed 20-Jul-18 4193 4187 4393 4162 4363 4.05% 17.47% -24.09%
Chana 20-Jul-18 3470 3470 3770 3462 3752 8.13% -2.71% 92.61%
Dhaniya 20-Jul-18 4681 4700 4827 4667 4752 1.52% 5.97% -31.36%
COCUDAKL 20-Jul-18 1538.50 1539.00 1612.00 1510.00 1589.00 3.28% -5.00% 17.56%
Guargum5 20-Jul-18 8171 8171 8654 8124 8459 3.52% 1.86% -36.80%
Guarseed10 20-Jul-18 3855.00 3865.00 4075.00 3827.00 4001.00 3.79% -38.24% -22.28%
Jeera 20-Jul-18 18500 18400 19070 18105 18560 0.32% -4.78% -22.64%
RMseed 20-Jul-18 3981 3993 4096 3991 4056 1.88% 0.85% 123.78%
Ref Soya Oil 20-Jul-18 751.00 750.30 757.65 749.00 755.05 0.54% -0.03% -13.08%
Soyabean 20-Jul-18 3566 3585 3650 3510 3527 -1.09% -10.75% -26.16%
Turmeric 20-Jul-18 7362 7360 7396 7078 7118 -3.31% 0.40% -53.89%
Mentha Oil 31-Jul-18 1376.50 1236.00 1389.30 1236.00 1382.70 0.45% -6.49% 78.68%
USDINR 27-Jul-18 68.7250 68.7975 69.1925 68.5625 69.0500 0.47%
GBPINR 27-Jul-18 90.4325 90.4100 91.7500 90.4100 91.4525 1.13%
JPYINR 27-Jul-18 62.2225 62.0900 62.6300 61.9175 62.4825 0.42%
EURINR 27-Jul-18 80.2175 80.2125 81.0575 80.0850 80.9900 0.96%

International Market Wrap-up
Commodity Exchange
Previous
Close
Open High Low Close % Change in Price
Market Wrap-Up
Aluminium LME 2131.75 2134.75 2136.50 2071.25 2087.50 -2.08%
Copper COMEX 2.951 2.954 2.956 2.785 2.819 -4.47%
Crude Oil NYMEX 74.15 73.62 75.27 72.14 73.91 -0.32%
Gold COMEX 1251.30 1249.90 1259.90 1237.00 1255.90 0.37%
Lead LME 2410.50 2411.50 2421.00 2307.75 2348.00 -2.59%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.924 2.920 2.927 2.822 2.854 -2.39%
Nickel LME 14950.00 14907.50 14940.00 13862.50 13960.00 -6.62%
Silver COMEX 16.104 16.055 16.105 15.730 16.070 -0.21%
Zinc LME 2856.75 2866.00 2873.75 2667.50 2748.75 -3.78%

Inventory Updates
LME Inventory
Commodity
Closing AS (As on 6th Jul 18)
In tones
Closing (As on 29th Jun 18)
in tones
% Change in Price
Continued…….
Aluminium 1106600 1112025 -0.49%
Copper 279000 298250 -6.45%
Lead 131175 131700 -0.40%
Nickel 268392 272754 -1.60%
Zinc 249025 249325 -0.12%

Inventory Updates

Market Next Week
Currency Weekly Pivots
Currency Pair Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
Continued…….
Upcoming Economic Events Calender
Time Currency Event Forecast Previous
Monday, July 9, 2018
18:40 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
Tuesday, July 10, 2018
7:00 CNY CPI (YoY) (Jun) 0:27 0:25
7:00 CNY PPI (YoY) (Jun) 0.045 0.041
14:00 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (May) 0.005 -0.008
14:00 GBP Trade Balance (May) -11.95B -14.04B
14:00 GBP Trade Balance Non-EU (May) -3.60B -5.37B
Tentative GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.002
19:30 USD JOLTs Job Openings (May) 6.698M
Wednesday, July 11, 2018
16:50 USD OPEC Monthly Report
18:00 USD Core PPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.002 0.003
18:00 USD PPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.002 0.005
20:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.245M
Thursday, July 12, 2018
13:30 USD IEA Monthly Report
18:00 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.20% 0.20%
18:00 USD Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) 2.30% 2.20%
18:00 USD CPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.20% 0.20%
18:00 USD Initial Jobless Claims 225K 231K
23:30 USD Federal Budget Balance (Jun) -144.0B -147.0B
Friday, July 13, 2018
8:30 CNY Exports (YoY) (Jun) 10.20% 12.60%
8:30 CNY Imports (YoY) (Jun) 22.00% 26.00%
8:30 CNY Trade Balance (USD) (Jun) 27.50B 24.92B
18:00 USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Jun) 0.30% 0.60%
18:00 USD Import Price Index (MoM) (Jun) 0.20% 0.60%
19:30 USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jul) 89.7 89.1
19:30 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul) 98.3 98.2
USDINR 27-Jul-18 70.2000 69.6000 69.3500 68.9350 68.6500 68.3000 67.6500
GBPINR 27-Jul-18 93.9000 92.5500 92.0000 91.2042 90.6500 89.8500 88.5000
JPYINR 27-Jul-18 63.8000 63.1000 62.8000 62.3433 62.0500 61.6000 60.9000
EURINR 27-Jul-18 82.7000 81.7000 81.3500 80.7108 80.3500 79.7000 78.7500

MCX Weekly Pivots
Commodity Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
NCDEX Weekly Pivots
Commodity Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
Market Next Week
Aluminium 31-Jul-18 153.65 149.25 146.55 144.82 142.10 140.40 136.00
Copper 31-Aug-18 488.75 463.10 447.35 437.45 421.70 411.80 386.15
Crude Oil 19-Jul-18 5477 5275 5175 5073 4973 4871 4669
Gold 03-Aug-18 31500 31007 30783 30514 30290 30021 29528
Lead 31-Jul-18 177.85 170.15 165.85 162.45 158.15 154.75 147.05
Natural Gas 26-Jul-18 209.60 203.50 200.10 197.40 194.00 191.30 185.20
Nickel 31-Jul-18 1111.60 1044.80 1001.85 977.97 935.00 911.15 844.35
Silver 05-Sep-18 41257 40476 40121 39695 39340 38914 38133
Zinc 31-Jul-18 220.95 206.45 198.55 191.93 184.00 177.40 162.90
Castor Seed 20-Jul-18 4768 4537 4450 4306 4219 4075 3844
Chana 20-Jul-18 4277 3969 3861 3661 3553 3353 3045
Dhaniya 20-Jul-18 5069 4909 4830 4749 4670 4589 4429
COCUDAKL 20-Jul-18 1774.35 1672.35 1630.70 1570.33 1528.65 1468.30 1366.30
Guargum5 20-Jul-18 9472 8942 8701 8412 8171 7882 7352
Guarseed10 20-Jul-18 4464 4216 4108 3968 3860 3720 3472
Jeera 20-Jul-18 20508 19543 19052 18578 18087 17613 16648
RMseed 20-Jul-18 4258 4153 4104 4048 3999 3943 3838
Ref Soya Oil 20-Jul-18 771.20 762.55 758.80 753.90 750.15 745.25 736.60
Soyabean 20-Jul-18 3842 3702 3615 3562 3475 3422 3282
Turmeric 20-Jul-18 7833 7515 7317 7197 6999 6879 6561
Mentha Oil 31-Jul-18 1642.60 1489.30 1436.00 1336.00 1282.70 1182.70 1029.40

BULLION
Spot gold prices traded higher marginally to close at $ 1257.3 per ounce as weak-
ness in the DX coupled with ongoing trade tensions pushed the yellow metal to one
week high. Despite escalating trade tensions between US and China gold prices
have been falling as markets are pricing in two more rate hikes for the rest of the
year. Rising interest rate scenarios does not favour investments in the yellow metal
and hence the prices correction. The US economy growing at 4.5 annualised rate in
the second quarter and steady dollar are blend of options for gold prices to move
down in the coming weeks. MCX gold prices gained 0. 1 percent to trade at Rs.
30650 per 10 gms.
BASE METALS
Turkish steel producers have stayed away from the deep-sea scrap market with no
cargoes booked between Monday and Friday amid limited domestic and export
demand for finished steel products sources told Metal Bulletin this week. After
completing their bookings for July deliveries Turkish steel producers went quiet
with demand for finished steel in both the local and export markets failing to
bounce back after the country’s presidential and general elections in June.
ENERGY
MCX Fundamentals
Oil prices widened their losses in American trade on Friday for the second straight
session, hitting one-week lows after a surprise US inventory build up while US
output steadied at record highs, as prices were also hurt by mounting USChina
trade tensions. As of 13:03 GMT US crude fell to $72.40 a barrel from the opening
of $73.16 while Brent tumbled to $76.65 from the opening of $77.56, marking
June 26 lows at $76.35.

SPICES
NCDEX Fundamentals
OILSEEDS
GUAR COMPLEX
Guar hit the upper circuit with sentiments gradually changing to a Bullish
note with low rains in Rajasthan providing support to the sentiments. Rising
crude oil prices and firmness in Dollar vs Rupee supported prices. The bearish
impact of favorable Monsoon reports however seem to be gradually getting
over. There are expectations that further too much fall from these levels may
be limited as they would not be sustainable .
OTHERS
Bullish tone in soybean and palm oil in addition to fresh purchase queries in
spot markets kept buyers active the in derivative market yesterday. In com-
ing days slowing arrival impact will be seen as a bullish driver. Reports on na-
ture of demand for DOC will be equally important .
Futures could sustain higher this time as markets had fallen significantly yes-
terday while there was no major bearish news. Tuesday’s hike in the MSP
was influential in keeping prices up this time.
Rates shot up for Mentha as rains in growing areas adversely affected the
harvesting. However prices seem to face immediate resistance at these
higher levels and any clearing of skies could lead to improved harvesting
activities resulting in some fall in prices from these levels. Daily demand re-
mains strong enough to absorb supplies.
Rates shot up for Jeer on rising export and domestic demand amidst falling
stocks with rising Dollar vs Rupee providing further support to the market senti-
ments. Low stocks in International markets and shifting export demand towards
India aided by a firm Dollar vs Rupee are also acting as key bullish factors. Prices
firmed up moderately for Turmeric even as good monsoon rains in growing ar-
eas in AP kept uptrend limited. export and domestic demand could support
prices and prevent too much fall from these levels.

Last week Lead Jul Futures started the week on negative note and continued the same for the entire week. It made a
low of 159.05 during the week and closed at on 161.55 with the overall loss of 2.42% on weekly basis. Technically it
consolidating above the major support level of 160 with the positive RSI and volume and for this week, we can expect
upside movement in it.
Calls of the Week (MCX)
SILVER
LEAD
WEEKLY STRATEGY
PERTICULAR DETAILS
Last week, spot Silver prices traded marginally higher to close at $16.08 per ounce while MCX Silver prices declined
0.39 percent to trade at Rs.33766. Silver prices surged to one week high as weakness in the DX by 0.6 percent boosted
an upside in the bullion metal. Recently market has been broken its resistance trend line on upside and if market sus-
tain above the level of 40000 we can see positive movement in it for short term to mid term basis.
WEEKLY STRATEGY
PERTICULAR DETAILS
Action Buy
Entry Range Above 40050
Target 40500
SL 39800
Action Buy
Entry Range Above 162.50
Target 165.50
SL 161.40

Moderate firm trend was noted for Guar on rising crude oil prices and firmness in Dollar vs Rupee, that may aid the
export demand. The bearish impact of favorable Monsoon reports amidst lack of strong demand seem to be gradually
getting over. It made high of 8285 during the week and closed at 8171 with marginal gain of 9% on the weekly basis.
Technically it consolidating above the resistance level of 8000 with the positive RSI and for this week, we can expect
further upside movement in it.
Calls of the Week (NCDEX)
COCUDAKL
GUARGUMS
WEEKLY STRATEGY
PERTICULAR DETAILS
Action Buy
Entry Range Above 8400
Target 8650
SL 8280
WEEKLY STRATEGY
PERTICULAR DETAILS
Action Sell
Entry Range Below 8710
Target 8500
SL 8820
Last week COCUDAKL Futures started the week on positive note and continued trade on range for the entire week. It
made a high of 1647.50 during the week and closed at on 1627.50 with the overall gain of 3.28 on weekly basis. Tech-
nically market is trading on higher level and trading in overbought zone we are expecting correction from higher side.
For this week, if it breaks the level of if it breaks the level of 1655 on the lower side then it can test the level of 1525
during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 1710

Calls of the Week (FOREX)
WEEKLY STRATEGY
PERTICULAR DETAILS
GBPINR
USDINR
WEEKLY STRATEGY
PERTICULAR DETAILS
Last week JPYINR Jul Futures started the week on positive note and continued trade on range for the entire week. It
made a high of 62.6300 during the week and closed at on 62.4825 with the overall gain of 0.42% on weekly basis. Tech-
nically it is making higher highs and higher lows with the positive RSI and volume and for this week, we can expect up-
side movement in it.
Last week GBPINR Jul Futures started the week on positive note and continued the same for the entire week. It made a
high of 91.7500 during the week and closed at on 91.4525 with the overall gain of 1.13% on weekly basis. Technically it
consolidating above the major support level of 90 with the positive RSI and volume and for this week, we can expect
upside movement in it. For this week, if it breaks the level of if it breaks the level of 91.7500 on the upside then it can
test the level of 92.3475 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL 91.4475.
Action Buy
Entry Range Above 91.7500
Target 92.3475
SL 91.4475
Action Buy
Entry Range 62.4100
Target 62.9900
SL 62.0975

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DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF CONFLICT OF INTEREST (टहतों के संघषा के भाभरे भें प्रकटीकयण ):
(a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or his associate or his relative has no financial interest in the subject company and the nature of such financial interest;
(अ) हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोगी मा उनके ककसी बी तत्कार रयश्तेदाय की ववषम कं ऩनी भें कोई ववत्तीम रुधच नहीं है औय न ही इस तयह की ववत्तीम टहत की
प्रकृ नत है|
(b) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates or relatives, have no actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more in the securities of the subject company,
(ब) हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोगी मा उनके ककसी बी तत्कार रयश्तेदाय की ववषम कं ऩनी की प्रनतबूनतमों भें एक प्रनतशत मा उससे अधधक के वास्तववक / पामदेभंद
स्वालभत्व नहीं हैं |
(c) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associate has no other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance;
(स) हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोधगमों को अनुसंधान रयऩोटा के प्रकाशन के सभम मा सावाजननक रूऩ से उऩक्स्थत होने के सभम कोई अन्म बौनतक संघषा नहीं है|
DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF COMPENSATION ( ऺनतऩूनता के संदबा भें प्रकटीकयण):
High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of
coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are salary based permanent employees of High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd.
हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड की ऩॉलरसी अऩने ववश्रेषकों, ऩेशेवयों को ववश्रेषक के ऺेत्र भें ककसी बी कं ऩनी की प्रनतबूनतमों के स्वाभी से ववश्रेषकों को रयऩोटा कयने से योकती है।
ववश्रेषक ऺनतऩूनता : ववश्रेषक हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड के वेतन आधारयत स्थामी कभाचायी है |
DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF PUBLIC APPEARANCE (सावाजननक प्रकटन के भाभरे भें प्रकटीकयण ) :
(a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates have not received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months;
(अ) हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोगीमों ने वऩिरे 12 भहीनों भें ववषम कं ऩनी से कोई भुआवजा प्राप्त नहीं ककमा है |
(b) The subject company is not now or never a client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
(ब) अनुसंधान रयऩोटा के ववतयण की नतधथ से ऩूवा फायह भहीनों के दौयान ववषम कं ऩनी अफ मा कबी बी ग्राहक नहीं यही है।
(c ) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates has never served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company;
(स) हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोगीमों ने ववषम कं ऩनी के अधधकायी, ननदेशक मा कभाचायी के रूऩ भें कबी बी काभ
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