September 2012 CrossborderInforma briefing by Crossborder Group: a snapshot of borderwide border crossing trends along the US-Mexico border, with a focus on regional border crossing trends in the San Diego-Tijuana region -- and the economic impacts of crossborder shoppers on San Diego's retail sector and the economy. Selected survey data from Crossborder Group's proprietary at-border surveys also provide insights about crossborder consumer purchases. CrossborderInforma briefings are issued 1-2 times each month, covering a variety of economic, industry, and policy-related issues in Mexico and along the US-Mexico border region. For more information, please contact our firm at Answers[at]CrossborderBusiness[dot]com, or call us toll free at 1-888-4XBORDER [888-492-6733]. Have a Mexico or NAFTA question? We can help.

1. San Ysidro Monthly Cros
3,500,000
Passengers and Pedestrian
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
SY- Pedestrians SY - POV Passenge
C r o ss bo r de r I N F O R M A | R e s e ar c h • A n al y s is • I n sig h t s
Regional Border Crossing Trends & Economic Impacts
Unbiased business, industry and policy market research, strategies and
market-entry services for Mexico and the NAFTA/CAFTA marketplace

2. September 24, 2012
Crossborder Group is pleased to
provide this CrossborderINFORMA
briefing of key indicators and survey
results – one of the many ways our firm
offers data and insights about business
and policy issues along the US-Mexico
border region and throughout Mexico.
This CrossborderINFORMA briefing is
focused on Regional Border Crossing
Trends and Economic Impacts.

3. TREND: DECREASED LEGAL SOUTHERN BORDER CROSSINGS
• For a variety of reasons – from long border waits, to security concerns
by US-based visitors, to a multi-year economic slowdown – the fact is
that the number of individuals crossing legally at US-Mexico border
crossings is dramatically lower: from an average of 24.2 million/mo. in
2000 to an average of only 12.9 million/mo. in Q1-2012…
• This is a -46.7% reduction in monthly US-Mexico border crossers.

4. CROSSINGS DOWN AT SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA BORDER TOO
• From a peak year of 2003 – in which 61.5 million individuals (car
passengers, bus passengers and pedestrians) crossed from Tijuana into
San Diego – the trend has also been largely down…
• While in 2003, an average of 5.1 million individuals crossed Northbound
at San Ysidro and Otay Mesa POEs each month, this has dropped -33.7%
to an average of only 3.4 million individuals monthly in 2012.

5. EXCEPTION: INCREASED CAR CROSSINGS AT OTAY MESA
• One standout from this downward trend: passenger vehicle (POV)
traffic at Otay Mesa POE has increased significantly since mid-2011,
likely related to construction at San Ysidro POE, as well as the
expansion of Ready Lanes at Otay Mesa…
• During 1H-2012 (Jan-Jun2012), more than 2.5 million POVs crossed at
Otay Mesa POE (+32.6% higher than 1H-2011)
Monthly Northbound Passenger Vehicle Crossings:
Otay Mesa (Jan2006-Jul2012)
600,000
500,000
1H-2011 versus 1H-2012:
+32.6% increase in POVs
400,000
300,000
SYPOE Constuction
200,000 Began (June 2011)
100,000
0
Nov-06
Nov-09
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-10
Nov-12
Jan-07
Jan-10
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-12
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-09
Sep-10
May-06
May-07
Sep-08
May-09
May-10
Sep-11
May-12
May-08
May-11
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-12
Jul-08
Jul-11
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-12
Mar-08
Mar-11

6. BORDER CROSSINGS = CROSSBORDER SHOPPING
• However, border crossings are more than a transportation or security
issue, as a large portion of Mexico-residing visitors spend a significant
amount of money while in the United States…
• Baja California-residing border crossers surveyed by Crossborder Group
between 2003-2012 reported estimated daily expenditures averaging
between $140-170 (in fact, over 25% stated they would spend $200+).
Mexico Residing Border Crossers at San Ysidro & Otay Mesa POEs:
"Approximately, how much do you estimate that you will spend today
30%
during your visit to San Diego or California?" (US$ dollars, n=1,067; April 2012)
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
$1-$49
N/A
$1000+
$0
$100-$149
$150-$199
$200-$299
$300-$399
$400-$499
$500-$999
$50-$99

7. CROSSBORDER SHOPPERS: FREQUENCY
• At-border surveys also show that Mexico-residing visitors to San
Diego County are relatively frequent shoppers…
• In Crossborder’s April 2012 at-border survey, 75% of Baja California
respondents stated they shopped 1-4 times/month in San Diego; in
addition, over 7% shopped in San Diego more than twice/week.

8. CROSSBORDER SHOPPERS: SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC IMPACTS
• Some of the most common
products purchased: food,
electronics, beauty-related,
clothing, electrical and
autoparts…
• Top stores include Walmart,
Costco, Target, Ross, and
Macy’s, among many…
• What’s the economic impact:
Crossborder estimates at least
$10-14 million in crossborder
shopping expenditures daily
from Baja California into San
Diego County…
• …or a minimum of $3.5-5.0
billion annually.

9. BORDER WAITS REDUCING CROSSINGS (AND SPENDING)?
• However, regional border surveys show a key factor in the declining
number of border crossers is long border waits (despite fewer actual
crossers) – undermining the economic benefits of crossborder shoppers.
• Border crossers from Tijuana, San Diego, and other areas of the US
consistently cite “long border waits” as a major reason for fewer
crossborder trips – with SENTRI users as the only exception…

10. SOME REGIONAL HOPE: SENTRI USAGE INCREASING
• SENTRI, in fact, may be providing some of the best news for the
crossborder economy, as the number of (higher-spending) SENTRI
participants using San Ysidro and Otay Mesa POEs has been on the
upswing over the last 2+ years…
• From an average of 350K SENTRI crossings/mo. at San Diego-Tijuana
Ports of Entry in 2010, average usage increased +21.6% in 2012 to over
426K northbound crossings/mo. – now, nearly one-third of all cars.

11. For more insights on crossborder shoppers,
border retail strategies, tourism, and
economic impacts; border crossing trends;
Mexico consumer markets and/or
manufacturing strategies; or other issues
along and across the Mexico-US border,
contact the team at Crossborder Group…
Mexico or border questions? Hire us.
1-888-4XBORDER [888-492-6733]
www.CrossborderBusiness.com
answers@crossborderbusiness.com
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12. A FEW OF CROSSBORDER’S CLIENTS
…and many others – contact us today to find out how we can help.