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CrossborderInforma: Regional Border Crossing Trends & Economic Impacts


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September 2012 CrossborderInforma briefing by Crossborder Group: a snapshot of borderwide border crossing trends along the US-Mexico border, with a focus on regional border crossing trends in the San Diego-Tijuana region -- and the economic impacts of crossborder shoppers on San Diego's retail sector and the economy. Selected survey data from Crossborder Group's proprietary at-border surveys also provide insights about crossborder consumer purchases.

CrossborderInforma briefings are issued 1-2 times each month, covering a variety of economic, industry, and policy-related issues in Mexico and along the US-Mexico border region. For more information, please contact our firm at Answers[at]CrossborderBusiness[dot]com, or call us toll free at 1-888-4XBORDER [888-492-6733]. Have a Mexico or NAFTA question? We can help.

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CrossborderInforma: Regional Border Crossing Trends & Economic Impacts

  1. 1. San Ysidro Monthly Cros 3,500,000 Passengers and Pedestrian 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 SY- Pedestrians SY - POV PassengeC r o ss bo r de r I N F O R M A | R e s e ar c h • A n al y s is • I n sig h t sRegional Border Crossing Trends & Economic Impacts Unbiased business, industry and policy market research, strategies and market-entry services for Mexico and the NAFTA/CAFTA marketplace
  2. 2. September 24, 2012Crossborder Group is pleased toprovide this CrossborderINFORMAbriefing of key indicators and surveyresults – one of the many ways our firmoffers data and insights about businessand policy issues along the US-Mexicoborder region and throughout Mexico.This CrossborderINFORMA briefing isfocused on Regional Border CrossingTrends and Economic Impacts.
  3. 3. TREND: DECREASED LEGAL SOUTHERN BORDER CROSSINGS• For a variety of reasons – from long border waits, to security concerns by US-based visitors, to a multi-year economic slowdown – the fact is that the number of individuals crossing legally at US-Mexico border crossings is dramatically lower: from an average of 24.2 million/mo. in 2000 to an average of only 12.9 million/mo. in Q1-2012…• This is a -46.7% reduction in monthly US-Mexico border crossers.
  4. 4. CROSSINGS DOWN AT SAN DIEGO-TIJUANA BORDER TOO• From a peak year of 2003 – in which 61.5 million individuals (car passengers, bus passengers and pedestrians) crossed from Tijuana into San Diego – the trend has also been largely down…• While in 2003, an average of 5.1 million individuals crossed Northbound at San Ysidro and Otay Mesa POEs each month, this has dropped -33.7% to an average of only 3.4 million individuals monthly in 2012.
  5. 5. EXCEPTION: INCREASED CAR CROSSINGS AT OTAY MESA• One standout from this downward trend: passenger vehicle (POV) traffic at Otay Mesa POE has increased significantly since mid-2011, likely related to construction at San Ysidro POE, as well as the expansion of Ready Lanes at Otay Mesa…• During 1H-2012 (Jan-Jun2012), more than 2.5 million POVs crossed at Otay Mesa POE (+32.6% higher than 1H-2011) Monthly Northbound Passenger Vehicle Crossings: Otay Mesa (Jan2006-Jul2012) 600,000 500,000 1H-2011 versus 1H-2012: +32.6% increase in POVs 400,000 300,000 SYPOE Constuction 200,000 Began (June 2011) 100,000 0 Nov-06 Nov-09 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-10 Nov-12 Jan-07 Jan-10 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-12 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-09 Sep-10 May-06 May-07 Sep-08 May-09 May-10 Sep-11 May-12 May-08 May-11 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-12 Jul-08 Jul-11 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-08 Mar-11
  6. 6. BORDER CROSSINGS = CROSSBORDER SHOPPING• However, border crossings are more than a transportation or security issue, as a large portion of Mexico-residing visitors spend a significant amount of money while in the United States…• Baja California-residing border crossers surveyed by Crossborder Group between 2003-2012 reported estimated daily expenditures averaging between $140-170 (in fact, over 25% stated they would spend $200+). Mexico Residing Border Crossers at San Ysidro & Otay Mesa POEs: "Approximately, how much do you estimate that you will spend today 30% during your visit to San Diego or California?" (US$ dollars, n=1,067; April 2012) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% $1-$49 N/A $1000+ $0 $100-$149 $150-$199 $200-$299 $300-$399 $400-$499 $500-$999 $50-$99
  7. 7. CROSSBORDER SHOPPERS: FREQUENCY• At-border surveys also show that Mexico-residing visitors to San Diego County are relatively frequent shoppers…• In Crossborder’s April 2012 at-border survey, 75% of Baja California respondents stated they shopped 1-4 times/month in San Diego; in addition, over 7% shopped in San Diego more than twice/week.
  8. 8. CROSSBORDER SHOPPERS: SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC IMPACTS• Some of the most common products purchased: food, electronics, beauty-related, clothing, electrical and autoparts…• Top stores include Walmart, Costco, Target, Ross, and Macy’s, among many…• What’s the economic impact: Crossborder estimates at least $10-14 million in crossborder shopping expenditures daily from Baja California into San Diego County…• …or a minimum of $3.5-5.0 billion annually.
  9. 9. BORDER WAITS REDUCING CROSSINGS (AND SPENDING)?• However, regional border surveys show a key factor in the declining number of border crossers is long border waits (despite fewer actual crossers) – undermining the economic benefits of crossborder shoppers.• Border crossers from Tijuana, San Diego, and other areas of the US consistently cite “long border waits” as a major reason for fewer crossborder trips – with SENTRI users as the only exception…
  10. 10. SOME REGIONAL HOPE: SENTRI USAGE INCREASING• SENTRI, in fact, may be providing some of the best news for the crossborder economy, as the number of (higher-spending) SENTRI participants using San Ysidro and Otay Mesa POEs has been on the upswing over the last 2+ years…• From an average of 350K SENTRI crossings/mo. at San Diego-Tijuana Ports of Entry in 2010, average usage increased +21.6% in 2012 to over 426K northbound crossings/mo. – now, nearly one-third of all cars.
  11. 11. For more insights on crossborder shoppers,border retail strategies, tourism, andeconomic impacts; border crossing trends;Mexico consumer markets and/ormanufacturing strategies; or other issuesalong and across the Mexico-US border,contact the team at Crossborder Group… Mexico or border questions? Hire us. 1-888-4XBORDER [888-492-6733] answers@crossborderbusiness.comOr…follow us by clicking on the icons below:
  12. 12. A FEW OF CROSSBORDER’S CLIENTS …and many others – contact us today to find out how we can help.