1. DRUMMOND LECTURE 2011
Securing resources
-- a scientists view
Dr Colin Bannister
Fisheries & Shellfisheries Scientist
Trustee of the Buckland Foundation
Chairman of SAGB

2. Last Year’s Lecture: Peter Hunt’s Vision
The C F P
Inshore Management 6-12 miles
Sustainable Management
Regional Management Plans
Environmental Impact
Static Gear & Mollusc Culture
What does this really mean ?
Mobile Gear
Naturalised Species
Polluter pays
Improved water treatment
Monitoring pollution
Classification of shellfish waters
Toxin management
Crustacean management , regional inshore brown crab management
Restoration of regional rural fishing communities
Phasing out preserved historic practices
Maximising the value of shellfish.

3. Sustainability (of capture fisheries)
Policy
Definitions and obligations
The objectives & actions required
Scientific objectives
Precautionary frameworks
Fish stock examples of MSY
Knowledge required
Stock status and management criteria
Shellfish examples from 3 types of management regime
Wider issues
Future needs
Climate change

4. Recommendations and Laws
World Commission on Environment & Development (Brundtland,1987)
……development that meets our needs without
restricting/pre-empting future choices or needs ....
1982 United Nations Law of the Sea:
Includes a call to manage fisheries for maximum sustainable yield (MSY)
1995 United Nations Fish Stock Agreement (for straddling and
highly migratory stocks):
Specifies an OBLIGATION to secure sustainability/optimal utilisation :
 stocks capable of producing maximum sustainable yield (MSY)
 stocks that are above levels where reproduction is impaired
 use of best scientific advice that is necessarily precautionary
2002 Johannesburg World Summit on Sustainable Development
 Where possible, fish stocks should reach MSY not later than 2015 !!

5. The Precautionary Approach:
--this is not a whimsy but a formal structure
FAO (1995) Guidelines on the Precautionary Approach
The formal PA requires:
a management process (data , stock monitoring, research/advice,
management plan, enforcement, review)
pre-defined desirable (target) & undesirable (limit) outcomes (=ref.points)
a specified harvest strategy to achieve the outcomes with high probability
decision rules: response to stock status changes is pre-agreed
i.e not a belated ad-hoc response to crisis, but a pre-determined plan to
define in advance how managers will respond to stock change
FAO 1995 is not legally binding, but it is the basis for applying the PA in most international
scientific & management bodies including EU & NEAFC (advised by ICES), and NAFO.

6. A refresher on MSY
MSY
Heavy fishing means fewer old fish:
You catch more, but they are smaller,
SO Yield (sum of numbers * weight at age)
has a maximum
(or a plateau depending on growth rate)
** in this example juvenile numbers are constant but in the real
world, fishing beyond MSY may/will eventually impair recruitment
6 October 14, 2010 Dr Colin Bannister

7. What is impaired recruitment ? (2 key examples)
North Sea Herring Stock-Recruitment
N Sea Herring 120
Blim Bpa
A
Recruits age 0 (Billions)
Age 0 recruits 90
G
98
00
Stock collapse below 800 000 t
The Stock is outside safe
v. 91
biological limits.
E
99
60
Spawning 95
94
92
96
biomass
93
30
0 97
Collapsed in 1976 0
Recovered after closure 0 500 1000
2001
1500
2002
2000
Spawning Stock (1000 tonnes)
2500
(Data
SSB 2010, 1.3 mill t from
North Sea Cod Stock-Recruitment
1000 The Stock is outside safe biological limits.
ICES &
N Sea Cod A High risk of collapse Bpa
Pre-’87 CEFAS)
Post-’87 79 70
SSB is in the region of Blim. 76
800 F is estimated to be about Flim
Age 1 recruits G 69
Recruits age 1 (Millions)
85
v. E 600 83
81
Blim
78 66
65
77 74
Spawning 400
96
63
64
1 93
91 80 82 72
biomass 200 99
94
95
88
87
86 73
75
68
?
90 67 71
84
92 98 89
Danger of collapse 0
00
97
unquantifiable 0 50
2001 2002
100 150 200 250 300
Spawning Stock (1000 tonnes)
SSB 2011, 58 000 t Spawning stock biomass (‘ooo tonnes)

8. Reference point & control rule concepts
Critical zone Cautious zone
Reproduction
impaired or at Reduce harvest
risk: reduce rate to promote
harvest rate rebuilding
to lowest
possible level Harvest control rule
(or zero)
Fmsy*
Healthy (Low F /High B)
Cap harvest rate at F msy
Harvest = sustainable fishing
rate
B limit B msy (= B trigger)
* or proxies at F msy* ( = new F limit)
Stock status

9. Status of 30 NE Atlantic fish stocks, 2003 ( ICES data)
Fishing Mortality Fishing Mortality
Species/stock Biomass Fopt Flim F'03 Species/stock Biomass Fopt Flim F'03
Cod Plaice
NE Arctic 430000 0.13 0.70 0.84 N Sea 250000 0.12 0.60 0.41
Iceland 311000 0.15 0.61 Irish Sea 5172 0.12 0.56
Baltic 84238 0.16 0.96 1.05 E Chan 2670 0.11 0.54 0.57
Faroe Plat 52537 0.17 0.68 0.71 Celtic Sea 1553 0.11 0.55
N Sea 37600 0.15 0.86 1.11 W Chan 1434 0.11 0.63
Western 7659 0.17 0.90 1.01 Sole
W Scotland 5844 0.16 0.80 0.79 N Sea 32300 0.09 0.56
Irish Sea 4932 0.17 1.00 1.30 E Chan 14800 0.13 0.43
Haddock Irish Sea 4210 0.18 0.40 0.40
N Sea 347000 0.16 1.00 1.06 Celtic Sea 2904 0.12 0.54
NE Arctic 72385 0.20 0.49 0.53 W Chan 1814 0.11 0.28 0.41
Iceland 68877 0.17 1.00 Other
Faroe 62537 0.19 0.40 0.38 Mackerel 3080000 0.19 0.26 0.20
W Scot 62511 0.15 0.63 N Sea herring 1699000 0.13 nd 0.24
Saithe Northern hake 115400 0.11 0.28 0.29
NE Arctic 359930 0.11 0.45 0.22 Western monk 27600 0.05 0.33 0.30
N Sea 298000 0.09 0.60 0.28
Faroe 101175 0.16 0.40 0.32
Fopt (proxy for Fmsy) is 0.05-0.20: sustainability requires very moderate harvest rates
But F ‘03 was 2-5 times higher, and several were >> Flim (red colour code)
Getting to ‘genuinely sustainable fishing’ is tough: best to cap effort early !!!

10. Knowledge & Implementation
The PA, and the MSC Accreditation Assessment Tree, raise key questions:
Can the management system deliver sustainability? (MSC Prin 3)
Is the stock actually being fished sustainably ? (MSC Prin 1)
(I am using MSC principles as a guideline, and not as a hard-sell for certification !)
Prin 3: diagnostic indicators : inter alia
General attributes
Laws, processes & standards able to deliver sustainable fisheries
Roles, responsibilities, consultation are transparent, defined, effective
Long term objectives conform to PA & MSC principles
Fishery specific attributes
Defined fishery objectives that deliver PA & MSC principles
Effective decision processes: transparent & deliver the objectives
Monitoring & enforcement secure demonstrably effective compliance

11. Prin 1: diagnostic indicators
Attributes (& knowledge) needed to demonstrate sustainability
Stock status (> point of impairment with high probability)
Reference points (limit > pt of impairment; target delivers MSY)
Harvest strategy: specified measures that deliver the fishery objectives
Harvest rules: pre-agreed, deliver F <Fmsy, B>Blim, or stock recovery
Data (stock structure, productivity, the fishing fleet etc)
Assessment (measures stock status w.r.t to ref points & uncertainty; methods
tested by simulation or in practice ; internal & external peer review)
(Stocks lacking data may use alternative risk-based criteria =RBF)
Based on MSC FAM2 Prin 1 Performance Indicators
(MSC Prin 2: How fishery affects habitat & ecosystem: likely to be pressure
points for certain target species and gears……….. for another day !!

12. Capture shellfishery examples
Sustainability attributes under 3 management systems
Management system mainly international
e.g. Nephrops (langoustine)
Mixed management system (EU, national, local )
e.g. Brown crab
Local management system (SFC Regulating Orders)
e.g..Cockle
Does management of these stocks conform to PA criteria?
Are the stocks being fished sustainably ?

13. Nephrops norwegicus Langoustine
•Densely packed burrows in cohesive mud
•Stocks (‘Functional Units’) generally delimited by
habitat & larval retention in gyres
•Long history of previous biological research
•Populations & production generally stable
•Capture (trawl or creel ) depends on daily patterns of
emergence & seasonal patterns of reproduction
•Harvest rate is usually lower on females
•Fishery landings already limited by precautionary TACs
•Days at sea are constrained by cod rules

14. Nephrops stock surveys TV Survey
Fladen
N Minch
VMS
S Minch Moray
TV survey
Forth
Clyde
Farn
I Sea West
TV survey
Source: www.ices.dk

15. TV survey trends
Reported Landings (ICES W Gp data)
--western 18000
TV survey trends
16000
N Minch 14000 --eastern
12000
ICES VIa
10000
N Minch
S Minch
8000 Fladen
6000
Clyde
4000
2000
S Minch 0
1990199219941996199820002002200420062008
25000
20000
Moray
15000
ICES VII
Clyde I Sea W 10000
I Sea E
5000
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Forth
35000
I Sea W 30000
25000
ICES IV
20000
15000
Farn Dp
Farn
Fladen
10000 Forth
5000 Moray
0
Source: www.ices.dk 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

16. Stock status:compare F to Fmsy, stock number to Bmsy
Status of selected Nephrops stocks from ICES Advice for 2011 & 2012 (my extract )
% Harvest rate Stock number Stock status* ADVICE (control rule)
Stock FU Fnow MSY Now Btr F B Fnow Objective next F
Farn 6 14.3 12.9 778m 958m F>Fmsy B<Btr 14.3 trans msy 13.5
Fladen 7 7.3 10.2 5457m 2767m F<Fmsy B>Btr 7.3 msy 10.2
Forth 8 23.3 15.0 732m 292m F>Fmsy B>Btr 23.3 trans msy 21.7
Moray F 9 14.0 12.7 415m 262m F>Fmsy B>Btr 14.0 trans msy 13.7
Noup 10 na na na na na na
I Sea E 14 15.0 13.0 214.6m na F>Fmsy 15.0 trans msy 14.6
I Sea W 15 19.0 17.1 4.62 b 3.0 b F>Fmsy B>Btr 19.0 trans msy 18.6
Clyde ) 13 26.0 16.4 1499m 579m F>Fmsy B>Btr 26.0 trans msy 24.1
Jura ) 13 2.0 14.5 251m na F<Fmsy na 2.0 msy 14.5
S Minch 12 13.0 12.3 1542m 1016m F>Fmsy B>Btr 13.0 trans msy 12.9
N Minch 11 22.0 12.5 729m 330m F>Fmsy B>Btr 22.0 trans msy 20.1
Fmsy is derived from proxies (F0.1, F35%spr,Fmax) * unofficial indicative colour code
Btr=Btrigger =lowest obs'd in TV survey series trans msy = first of 5 steps to MSY
B is mostly above proxy Bmsy-trigger .
In 2 fisheries F is below F msy, In 5 fisheries F is only slightly above Fmsy,
In 3 fisheries F is significantly above Fmsy. Advice (next F) moves towards MSY

17. Summary attributes for Nephrops
Positives
International management framework (EU-ICES :- PA & MSY framework)
Routine stock monitoring (LPUE, size comp, TV survey burrow counts (improved )
Annual harvest rate estimates (catch /stock number , or by length-based analysis)
True Fmsy or Bmsy-trigger not measurable, but good proxies are in place
Formal biennial ICES advice with clear objective, harvest strategy &
decision rules (ICES-EU ‘transition to MSY’ & avoidance of impaired recruitment)
Harvest rates mostly close to proxy Fmsy, so required reductions are mostly modest
Negatives
No hard information on stock & recruitment, or on Blim
No internationally agreed reference points
ICES assesses stocks individually, but the TAC is aggregated to ICES Division:
this cannot ASSURE sustainability of individual stocks a potential MSC ‘Fail’ under Prin 3
The only shellfish example on a par with the fish world
Harvest rates are moderate & the system meets numerous sustainability criteria
Some limitations, and one major long standing weakness (the aggregated EU TAC)

18. Brown Crab (Cancer pagurus) 61
60
59
D3 D4 D5 D6 D7D8 D9 E0 E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8 E9 F0 F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 F8
Faeroe Bank 50
49
48
47
46
45
58
•Fished from inshore to well offshore on extensive regional stocks
Rockall 44
Bank 43
57
42
41
56
40
39
55
•Periodic MAFF/Cefas research on migration, larvae, biology, ageing
38
37
54
36
Porcupine 35
53 Bank
(Edwards, Bennett, Addison,Thompson, Eaton, Sheehy)
34
33
52
32
31
51
30
•Migrating hens & nomadic cocks support seasonal fisheries, but
29
50
28
27
49
26
La Chapelle 25
48
stock structure is not fully worked out
Bank 24
23
47
-17 -15 -13 -11 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9
•Stocks are relatively stable over time, but complex spatial patterns are
not well understood biologically
•Small inshore potters (<10m) fish seasonally in mixed fisheries
•Fast work boats (10-15+m) pot both ‘in & off’ as weather allows
•Viviers (>15m) fish nomadically all round UK for most of the year
Pressure points
•Many of the productive fisheries are on ripe hens !!
•Few recruitment data, but may be resilient due to longish life span &
high fecundity---up to 2--4 million eggs per female
•UK management is mainly by technical measures & local byelaws,
but potters say that number & density of pots is rising unchecked
•Prices are poor in the principal markets (export to Europe)

19. 7000
Edible crab
6000
Northumberland
5000
Yorkshire
4000
E.Anglia
Landings (tonnes)
3000
2000
1000
0
Source: Defra 2010 12000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Edible crab
10000 South coast
South Devon
8000
Landings (tonnes)
South Cornwall
6000
4000
Hebrides 2000
0
Orkney
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1800
1500 Edible crab
Papa
1200 North Cornwall
Landings (tonnes)
Wales
900 North west
Sule 600
S Minch
300
from Mill et al, 2009, draft 0
Source: 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Cefas 2011

20. Assessments :
Periodic size-based assessments with informal reference point indicators
Number at age, for different mortalities
Split size frequency data into ‘age’ groups (using growth from tagging)
Estimate current harvest rate (F) from decline of numbers with ‘age’ 120 10%'
survivors
100
Model effect of lower or higher harvest rates (at constant recruitment) 80
60
40
18%'
26%'
20 40%'
0
50%'
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Yield (per recruit) (YPR) Age in Years
Identify F at maximum on the curve = Fmax
Egg production per recruit (EPR)
Convert to % age of unfished (virgin) egg production
Informal reference point indicators (various standards world wide)
Target /precautionary indicator : 35% or 25 % virgin egg production
Limit e.g. 20% or 10% of virgin egg production
Proxy for MSY = Fmax
In progress: EFF (SAGB-Cefas) project on management proxies (M Smith, Cefas)

21. Typical crab assessment result
(e.g. North Sea, from CEFAS 2009 draft ) Max yield per recruit (at Fmax)
growth overfishing Present fishing rate
YPR female
1.4
600 YPR male 100
F female %VirgSPR female
1.2 F male 90
%VirgSPR male
500
%VirgEPR female 80
Fishing rate per size class
% virgin SPR or EPR
1 70
400
60
0.8
YPR
300 50
F
0.6 40
200
30
0.4 20
100
10
0.2
0 0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
0
F multiplier
110 130 150 170 190 210 Proportion of present fishing rate
size class (mm)
% virgin eggs per recruit Need 70% cut in harvest rate
to reach Fmax & increase EPR
Similar analyses by England, Scotland and Ireland for all major regional crab areas
See Bannister, 2009, On the Management of Brown Crab Fisheries (SAGB London)

22. English assessment results for all regions
(Source: Cefas, draft 2009, cited in Bannister Crab Report 2009)
Fishing Reference Point: F max Reference Points:
Rate % Virgin Egg per Recruit
Region Highest F Sex Status To reach Ref Pt. Observed Status To reach
Fmax ref pt
Central North Sea 0.6-1.0 F F>Fmax -68% 25% 6% < -80%
M F>Fmax -71% 10% 6% < -43%
Southern North Sea 1.0-1.5 F F>Fmax -74% 25% 5% < -82%
M F>Fmax -76% 10% 5% < -53%
Eastern Channel 0.3-1.0 F F>Fmax -57% 25% 7% < -74%
M F>Fmax -46% 10% 7% < -32%
Western Channel 0.6-0.8 F F>Fmax -47% 25% 9% < -69%
0.2-0.3 M F<Fmax 8% 10% 9% < -12%
Celtic Sea 0.6-1.4 F F>Fmax -59% 25% 8% < -76%
M F>Fmax -65% 10% 8% < -29%
Irish Sea 0.5-1.5 ? F F> Fmax -72% 25% 6% < -84%
1.0-2.5 ? M F> Fmax -63% 10% 6% < -56%
Suggests sustainable fishing requires significant reductions

23. Summary attributes for brown crab
•Mixed management framework (EU, national administrations, English IFCAs)
•Regional stock monitoring (landings, log books, port- & sea-based sampling,
some VMS, tagging)
•Periodic assessments & harvest rate estimates (length-based, Eng, Scot, Eire)
•Informal reference points (Fmax, 35%, 25% & 10% of virgin EPR)
•Technical measures (e.g. EU mls & crab claws + various SFC byelaws)
•English SFC permit schemes and pot limitation schemes
•10 yrs of SAGB & industry pressure for better/ more coherent management,
culminating in Bannister & Nautilus reports, NFFO strategy, and Transnational
Stakeholder Group

24. Conclusions for brown crab
Negatives
No unified assessment /reference points/advisory framework
Asessments have uncertainties, but F appears >> Fmsy in most regions,
especially on hens
Effort is rising, and a big concern is the latent effort inherent in existing
shellfish entitlements
Growing industry agreement in favour of action, but not on what action to take
So far, management lacks the formal coherent fishery objectives, harvest
strategy, and decision rules that meet PA guidelines
Many brown crab stocks are not fished sustainably
Present thrust to cap effort is a minimal position relative to the PA
Can the mixed management frameworks deliver sustainability ?
There is WORK TO DO !

25. Cockle (Cerastoderma edule) Wash 2009
ESFJC
•Siphonate bivalve common on mid-tide muddy sands
•Main stocks occur in large estuaries with larval retention e.g.
Wash, Thames, Burry Inlet, Three Rivers,
Dee, Morecambe Bay, Solway
•Many previous MAFF /Cefas surveys & studies (Hancock & Thames Estuary
Urquhart, 1960s, Pickett & Franklin, 1970s, Dare, Bannister, 2010, K&E SFC
Walker, Bell, 1990s)
•Ongoing surveys & studies by SFC’s & Cefas
Short life cycle with high natural mortality & early
maturation (age 2)
Episodic large spatfalls separated by leaner periods, Burry Inlet 2010 SW SFC
causing time-space variability
Variation originates in larval phase (temp, circulation,
productivity) + likely density-dependent settlement
Figures are from SFC Reports, and Cefas

26. 1990s cockle working party ‘SFC/Bannister strategy’
•1970s Wash collapse illustrated the danger of overharvesting
•Essential to manage the carry over of good spatfalls into the lean years
• ‘one third rule’: keep harvest < 33% of fishable biomass (proxy for MSY,
and secures stock for wading birds)
• Rotate access to beds according to abundance, density & size of cockles
•Suction dredging is too efficient for smaller estuaries
•In large estuaries, partition the beds: hand rake on high density beds & suction
dredging on lower density beds
• Control suction dredge damage rates (SFC studies in Wash & Thames)
Evolved by SFC’s into BEST PRACTICE
Active hands-on approach using Fishery Orders & Byelaws (licensing,
quotas, seasonal & bed closures, vessel restrictions, based on routine
annual stock surveys)
Burry Inlet Cockle Fishery Order 1965 ( now MSC certified)
Wash Fishery Order 1992
Thames Estuary Cockle Regulating Order 1994

27. Historical landings Recent decades
Wash landings ‘70-99
Tight regulation
Variable landings remain in
historical range.
One recent ‘die off ’episode
Stock Number
Thames landings ‘70-99 Tight regulation.
Stock variable but rising
Sustainable fishery.
Burry Inlet landings ‘70-99
Long term moderate
harvest rate were
sustainable until early
2000’s, when mystery ‘die-
off’s’ set in.

28. Summary attributes for cockle
 Comprehensive management framework (Regulating Order & Byelaws)
Annual stock assessment (Transect surveys, age structure, numbers & biomass)
Annual harvest rate estimates (catch /stock number)
Fmsy or Bmsy-trigger not measurable, but stock density proxies in place
Harvest strategy & decision rule (one third rule or similar, quota by bed, damage
rate criteria, temporary bed closure,). These also meet the bird criteria (MSC Prin 2)
Strong reporting, monitoring and enforcement systems
Negatives
No agreed reference points , but harvest rate & stock density proxies in place
Inherent uncertainty about the natural causes of recruitment variation,
Complete uncertainty about the cause of mystery die offs
Constant pressure for additional licences: need a ‘last in-first out’ rule
Suction dredge damage rates require regular monitoring
Regulating Orders keep harvest rates moderate & the system meets numerous
sustainability criteria (subject to natural uncertainty of estuarine recruitment).
. Burry Inlet (hand raking only) has MSC certification

29. Conclusions for the 3 examples
International Framework: Nephrops
Fishing is restricted by the ICES-EU framework & most harvest rates are moderate
The advice is shaping towards formal sustainability in 3-4 years
The only stock with increasing catch opportunity is the Fladen
The aggregate TAC issue is a problem for MSC certification
Mixed management framework : Brown crab
Many stocks are not fished sustainably: harvest rates are at or beyond Fmax
There is no sign of recruitment failure, but need to cap effort now, as a minimum
Credible PA status requires an agreed management plan with defined objectives,
harvest strategy, reference points, decision rules, and REDUCED fishing
Local management framework (Regulating Orders) : Cockle
Management in the three Fishery Order areas meets the intent of many
sustainability criteria, and illustrates best practice.
Outcomes are subject to unpredictable natural variability & mystery ‘die off’
MSC has certified the Burry Inlet hand rake fishery

30. The Future
Sustainable Management for Capture Shellfisheries needs:-
--A long term strategy to apply Precautionary Approach concepts to shellfish stocks,
just as ICES does for fish stocks
--Scientists and stakeholder groups to develop agreed formal long term management
plans that apply the concepts illustrated today
--Plans that contain pre-agreed objectives, harvest strategy, reference points and
decision rules, or meaningful proxies, that are strong and specific
--Long term stock monitoring; ongoing research on biology & population processes;
an advisory process (e.g. a National Shellfish Resource Group, or equivalent, as
proposed previously by SIDS)
--Effective enforcement: Regulating Orders show the joint benefits of ‘control
through ownership’, and consensual participatory management (e.g. Wash). There is
scope to develop this route further with the IFCAs.

31. Wider Issue: beware the unexpected
WE cannot control CLIMATE CHANGE—
BUT we CAN start to think NOW
about how the following priority impacts will affect habitats & stocks:
Basic changes to temperature, salinity, ph (already occurring)
Plankton changes (already occurring)
Changes to the timing, intensity & duration of the seasons
Changes to the biology of target species, predators, & diseases
Changes to environmental triggers that cue reproduction
Rainfall, flash floods, storm surges, and sea level rise
An important source:
Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership, Annual Report Card
www.mccip.org.uk

32. AIR since 1860
UPPER SEA TEMP
anomaly since
1950
2
1 N Sea
Surface
oC
0
temp
-1
-2
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
1000
Recruit (millions )
800 Cod
600 Recruit
400 ment
200
0
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005