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product 
management, 
cognitive bias, 
and you 
carlo kruger 
@ironicbuddha 
unboxed consulting
VERY GRADUAL 
CHANGE 
WE CAN BELIEVE IN
what is cognitive bias?
Jump to Conclusions 
??? JUMP 
AGAIN 
STRIKE 
OUT 
LOSE 
ONE 
TURN 
YES! NO! 
ACCEPT 
IT 
GO 
WILD 
ONE 
STEP 
BACK 
THINK 
AGAIN 
COULD 
BE 
MOOT! 
Start
the biases
Effect
“…starlings 
prefer sources 
of food 
which require 
effort to 
obtain” 
- Aiken (1957)
sunk cost fallacy
The US dropped 6,7m 
tons of bombs on 
Vietnam, compared 
with the 2,7m tons of 
bombs dropped on 
Germany during WWII 
3M 
7M
unboxed 
timesheets
THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD
“…a theory 
should be 
considered 
scientific if, and 
only if, it is 
falsifiable.” 
- Karl Popper
ux practices
usability testing
a/b testing
cheap prototyping
hawthorne effect
fundamental attribution error 
“Let him go Lou. 
Someone going that fast has no time for a ticket”
where the good fruit is…
@ironicbuddha 
slideshare.net/ironicbuddha 
unboxedconsulting.com

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Cognitive Biases in Product Management Decisions

Editor's Notes

  1. Digital product development is hard. It’s hard because we have brains that evolved under very different circumstances from those where we find ourselves now. We’re using brains that evolved to tell each other where the good fruit is; not build complex technology solutions. Our brains are adapted to expend the least amount of effort possible as cognition is metabolically expensive. As a result we have a tendency to fall prey to our cognitive biases. Unfortunately it isn’t feasible to rely only on System 2 slow thinking all the time. This means that even our awareness of innate cognitive biases is of little help in completely preventing falling into them. • Gather facts. It’s hard to know you’re improving if you’re not measuring. • Create a structure for making decisions. Define clear criteria to evaluate the merits of each option, and use them consistently. • Be mindful of subtle cues. Who’s included and who’s excluded? • Foster awareness. Hold yourself—and your colleagues—accountable. My best advice is keep your important decisions to the morning so that you have not expended all your available will power when making these decisions.