The document discusses competitive pressures and innovations in long-term systems, particularly in technology and communications, highlighting historical milestones and principles for supporting legacy systems. It emphasizes continuous and discrete innovation's impact on firms' incentives to improve amid competitive pressures and outlines models like the Bass Forecaster and Gartner Hype Model. The author, Christopher J. Smith, shares his experiences and proposes methods to extend the life of technological systems.

1. Standards
Certification
Education & Training
Publishing
Conferences & Exhibits
Competitive Pressures
Innovation and the resolution of
social and competitive pressures in
Long Term Systems Products

2. 2
Christopher J Smith
• M.Eng.Sci. (Systems and Control )
UNSW, Australia 1989
• Brand Director, Foxboro
SCADA
– 23 years today
– FAX - Web 1 - Web 2 Era
– Fortran,Pascal,C,C++
– Prolog
– Carbon Paper,Telex,Fax,Email
– Blog,Twitter
SYDNEY, Australia
@CJX07STER
Invensysscada.blogspot.com

3. Motivation
“Why so scrawny, cat?
Starving for fat fish or mice...
Or backyard love?”
― Matsuo Bashō, Japanese Haiku
3

4. 4
ISA
2013
ISA
201
2

5. On Fat Fish….
5

6. On love and texting…
6
This sentence was written from
Washington by me at the Baltimore
Terminal at 8h.45 min AM on Friday
May 24th. 1844, being the first
^
ever
transmitted from Washington
to Baltimore ^
by telegraph
, and was
indited by my much loved friend,
Annie G. Ellsworth.

7. Emotive Disruption
7
1840 1850 1860 1870
Transatlantic Cable
Johnson GrantBuchananPeirceFilmoreZ
TPolkTyler
Morse‟s
Test
Telegra
m
Transcontinental Telegraph
Service
Trans-Tasman
Cable [Australia]
Overland
Telegraph
[Australia]
• Electromagnetism Discovered [1820] - Orsted
• Electromagnet invented [1824] – Sturgeon
• Practical Electromagnets Engineered [1820s] –
Henry

8. Social Tribal – Competitive Economic
Social Tribal
• Continuously evolving
improvement or
degradation, marked by
rapid discontinuous
disruptions
• WAR / ego
• Trade Barriers
• Export Controls
Competitive Pressure
• Internal
• Industry
• Standards
• Acquisition
• Merger
• Restructure
8

9. Modelling the Effect
Features
• Bass Forecaster Model
• Gartner Hype Model
• Hotelling Model
• Game Theory
• Choice Modelling
• Path Dependence Factors

10. Discrete to Continuous Innovation
Continuous constrained
by Discrete Innovation
10
Photo: JRonaldLee:flickr:cc attrib.

11. A typical long lifecycle system
11
1932 2032
CPU
Power
Card File
IO
Modules

12. Historical Installed Base Path Dependence
Fujitsu Notebook Example
Model Component ANCIENT PRODUCT RECENT PRODUCT Comment
NEW Chassis Not Exchangeable Replaces Old Chassis No Longer
Available - From Jan
2014 Expand with New
Chassis
NEW PS Not Compatible Replaces
NEW I/O Not Compatible Replaces
NEW CPU Derived from New Replaces Specialization Kits
NEW Tools Compatible Compatible NEW tool can configure
ANCIENT/OLD/NEW
systems and mixed
Architecture
12
Minimize perceived cost to switch path

13. My 5 principles of Long Term Support
13
1. Retain and extend any configuration
language [20 years+]
2. Update Config Tools frequently
3. Add New and never delete Old
Hardware models
4. Make new Modules fit Older Module
Racks to extend installation life.
5. Provide an Expandable inclusive
architecture supporting co-existent
common family designs.

14. Measuring Competitive Pressure
• Restricted Entry as an increase:-
– degree of product substitutability
– number of competitors.
• Free entry as an increase:-
– degree of product substitutability
– size of the market
– in the ease of entry (decrease in the entry cost)
14
Innovation and competitive pressure
Xavier Vives
IESE Business School and UPF
November 26, 2007

15. Continuous and Discrete Innovation
• “In particular, our model predicts that, in
contrast to previous theoretical findings,
an increase in competitive pressure
measured by product substitutability
may decrease firms‟ incentives to
conduct continuous improvement, and
that an increase in the size of discrete
innovation may decrease firms‟
incentives to conduct continuous
improvement.”
100 years of continuous
improvement in the 19” rack
Modelled on the lifting dimensions
of a human being
Seems somewhat destined to
continue
Unless something else happens …
15
IZA DP No. 3132 : Discrete Innovation, Continuous
Improvement, and Competitive Pressure
Arghya Ghosh University of New South Wales
Takao Kato Colgate University, Columbia Business School, University of Tokyo, Aarhus School of
Business and IZA
Hodaka Morita University of New South Wales

16. Massive Disruption and Innovation in
Computing, Communications – 2000 to 2020
Computing per Watt
• Currently 1Gflop/Watt is
the best available
• DARPA/SRI „PERFECT‟
project kicked off 2012
aim for 75Ggflop/Watt by
around 2017 for HPEC
High Performance
Embedded Computers
Space and Efficiency
• Challenge to the 19”
Rack Standard
• Facebook‟s „Open
Compute Project‟ Open
Rack Spec Sept 18 2012
• Focus now on Power
Efficiency for the Rack
as a whole. Airflow -
Cooling
16
SPACE, WEIGHT and POWER

17. 2012/13 – The Open Rack Standard
17
Open Source Designs for Data Centres
[courtesy Michael Ocampo : AMAX.com]
https://www.facebook.com/#!/groups/opencompute/

18. An application of the Hotelling model
18
Equipment Automation IT
Facebook
Chatter
19”
Ope
n
?

19. 19
My
Preferred
System
PRODUCT
My
Big 5
Global
Delivery
My Partner
Integrators
Owner of my
Installed Base
Other
Integrator
Other
System
PRODUCT
Installed Base
Competing
Big 5
Vendor
Vendor Key Accounts,
Majors
Mega
Projects
My Historical LTS
Product
Customer Choice and Switching to a
different Equilibrium

20. Summary
20
Photo: Paul Stevenson: Flickr
Stairs
Lynn Chadwick
[Chatsworth House]

21. Thankyou
Your thoughts ?
21
Chris.j.smith@invensys.com
Invensysscada.blogspot.com
@CJX07STER