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TIMING OF ENTRY
WahyuYudistira
OVERVIEW
Entrants are often divided into three categories: first movers (or pioneers), which
are the first to sell in a new product or service category; early followers (also called early
leaders), which are early to the market but not first; and late entrants, which enter the
market when or after the product begins to penetrate the mass market. The research on
whether it is better to be a first mover, early follower, or late entrant yields conflicting
conclusions. Some studies that contrast early entrants (lumping first movers and early
followers together) with late entrants find that early entrants have higher returns and
survival rates, consistent with the notion of first-mover (or at least early-mover) advantage.
However, other research has suggested the first firm to market is often the first to fail,
causing early followers to outperform first movers. Still other research contends the higher
returns of being a first mover typically offset the survival risk. A number of factors influence
how timing of entry affects firmsurvival and profits. In this chapter, we will first examine
first-mover advantages and disadvantages. We will then look more closely at what factors
determine the optimal timing of entry, and its implications for a firm’s entry strategy.
FIRST-MOVERADVANTAGES
Being a first mover may confer the advantages of brand loyalty and
technological leadership, preemption of scarce assets, and exploitation of buyer
switching costs. Furthermore, in industries characterized by increasing returns,
early entrants may accrue learning and network externality advantages that are
self-reinforcing over time.
BRAND LOYALTYANDTECHNOLOGICAL LEADERSHIP
The company that introduces a new technology may earn a long-lasting
reputation as a leader in that technology domain. Such a reputation can help sustain
the company’s image, brand loyalty, and market share even after competitors have
introduced comparable products. The organization’s position as technology leader
also enables it to shape customer expectations about the technology’s form,
features, pricing, and other characteristics. By the time later entrants come to
market, customer requirements may be well established. If aspects that customers
have come to expect in a technology are difficult for competitors to imitate (e.g., if
they are protected by patent or copyright, or arise from the first mover’s unique
capabilities), being the technology leader can yield sustained monopoly rents. Even
if the technology characteristics are imitable, the first mover has an opportunity to
build brand loyalty before the entry of other competitors.
PREEMPTION OF SCARCEASSETS
Firms that enter the market early can preemptively capture scarce resources such as
key locations, government permits, patents, access to distribution channels, and
relationships with suppliers.
For example, companies that wish to provide any wireless communication service
must license the rights to broadcast over particular radio frequencies from the government.
In the United States, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is primarily responsible
for allotting rights to use bands of radio frequencies (known as the spectrum) for any
wireless broadcasting. The FCC first allocates different portions of the spectrum for different
purposes (digital television broadcasting, third-generation wireless telecommunication,
etc.) and different geographic areas. It then auctions off rights to use these segments to the
highest bidders. This means that early movers in wireless services can preemptively capture
the rights to use portions of the wireless spectrum for their own purposes, while effectively
blocking other providers. By 2003, the proliferation of wireless services had caused the
spectrum to become a scarce commodity, and the FCC was under pressure to allow the
holders of wireless spectrum rights to sublet unused portions of their spectrum to other
organizations.
EXPLOITING BUYER SWITCHING COSTS
Once buyers have adopted a good, they often face costs to switch to
another good. For example, the initial cost of the good is itself a switching cost, as is
the cost of complements purchased for the good. Additionally, if a product is
complex, buyers must spend time becoming familiar with its operation; this time
investment becomes a switching cost that deters the buyer from switching to a
different product. If buyers face switching costs, the firm that captures customers
early may be able to keep those customers even if technologies with a superior
value proposition are introduced later.
REAPING INCREASING RETURNS
ADVANTAGES
In an industry with pressures encouraging adoption of a dominant design, the
timing of a firm’s investment in new technology development may be particularly critical to
its likelihood of success. For example, in an industry characterized by increasing returns to
adoption, there can be powerful advantages to being an early provider; a technology that is
adopted early may rise in market power through self-reinforcing positive feedback
mechanisms, culminating in its entrenchment as a dominant design. Intel is an apt example
of this.
Intel’s Ted Hoff invented the first microprocessor in 1971, and in 1975, Bill Gates and
Paul Allen showed that it could run a version of BASIC that Gates had written. Gates’s BASIC
became widely circulated among computer enthusiasts, and as BASIC was adopted and
applications developed for it, the applications were simultaneously optimized for Intel’s
architecture. IBM’s adoption of Intel’s 8088 microprocessor in its PC introduction secured
Intel’s dominant position, and each of Intel’s subsequent generations of products has set the
market standard.

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Chapter 5 - Timing of Entry

  • 2. OVERVIEW Entrants are often divided into three categories: first movers (or pioneers), which are the first to sell in a new product or service category; early followers (also called early leaders), which are early to the market but not first; and late entrants, which enter the market when or after the product begins to penetrate the mass market. The research on whether it is better to be a first mover, early follower, or late entrant yields conflicting conclusions. Some studies that contrast early entrants (lumping first movers and early followers together) with late entrants find that early entrants have higher returns and survival rates, consistent with the notion of first-mover (or at least early-mover) advantage. However, other research has suggested the first firm to market is often the first to fail, causing early followers to outperform first movers. Still other research contends the higher returns of being a first mover typically offset the survival risk. A number of factors influence how timing of entry affects firmsurvival and profits. In this chapter, we will first examine first-mover advantages and disadvantages. We will then look more closely at what factors determine the optimal timing of entry, and its implications for a firm’s entry strategy.
  • 3. FIRST-MOVERADVANTAGES Being a first mover may confer the advantages of brand loyalty and technological leadership, preemption of scarce assets, and exploitation of buyer switching costs. Furthermore, in industries characterized by increasing returns, early entrants may accrue learning and network externality advantages that are self-reinforcing over time.
  • 4. BRAND LOYALTYANDTECHNOLOGICAL LEADERSHIP The company that introduces a new technology may earn a long-lasting reputation as a leader in that technology domain. Such a reputation can help sustain the company’s image, brand loyalty, and market share even after competitors have introduced comparable products. The organization’s position as technology leader also enables it to shape customer expectations about the technology’s form, features, pricing, and other characteristics. By the time later entrants come to market, customer requirements may be well established. If aspects that customers have come to expect in a technology are difficult for competitors to imitate (e.g., if they are protected by patent or copyright, or arise from the first mover’s unique capabilities), being the technology leader can yield sustained monopoly rents. Even if the technology characteristics are imitable, the first mover has an opportunity to build brand loyalty before the entry of other competitors.
  • 5. PREEMPTION OF SCARCEASSETS Firms that enter the market early can preemptively capture scarce resources such as key locations, government permits, patents, access to distribution channels, and relationships with suppliers. For example, companies that wish to provide any wireless communication service must license the rights to broadcast over particular radio frequencies from the government. In the United States, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is primarily responsible for allotting rights to use bands of radio frequencies (known as the spectrum) for any wireless broadcasting. The FCC first allocates different portions of the spectrum for different purposes (digital television broadcasting, third-generation wireless telecommunication, etc.) and different geographic areas. It then auctions off rights to use these segments to the highest bidders. This means that early movers in wireless services can preemptively capture the rights to use portions of the wireless spectrum for their own purposes, while effectively blocking other providers. By 2003, the proliferation of wireless services had caused the spectrum to become a scarce commodity, and the FCC was under pressure to allow the holders of wireless spectrum rights to sublet unused portions of their spectrum to other organizations.
  • 6. EXPLOITING BUYER SWITCHING COSTS Once buyers have adopted a good, they often face costs to switch to another good. For example, the initial cost of the good is itself a switching cost, as is the cost of complements purchased for the good. Additionally, if a product is complex, buyers must spend time becoming familiar with its operation; this time investment becomes a switching cost that deters the buyer from switching to a different product. If buyers face switching costs, the firm that captures customers early may be able to keep those customers even if technologies with a superior value proposition are introduced later.
  • 7. REAPING INCREASING RETURNS ADVANTAGES In an industry with pressures encouraging adoption of a dominant design, the timing of a firm’s investment in new technology development may be particularly critical to its likelihood of success. For example, in an industry characterized by increasing returns to adoption, there can be powerful advantages to being an early provider; a technology that is adopted early may rise in market power through self-reinforcing positive feedback mechanisms, culminating in its entrenchment as a dominant design. Intel is an apt example of this. Intel’s Ted Hoff invented the first microprocessor in 1971, and in 1975, Bill Gates and Paul Allen showed that it could run a version of BASIC that Gates had written. Gates’s BASIC became widely circulated among computer enthusiasts, and as BASIC was adopted and applications developed for it, the applications were simultaneously optimized for Intel’s architecture. IBM’s adoption of Intel’s 8088 microprocessor in its PC introduction secured Intel’s dominant position, and each of Intel’s subsequent generations of products has set the market standard.