Planning & Forecasting
Advanced Organizer
Decision Making
Planning
Organizing
Leading
Controlling
Research
Design
Production
Quality
Marketing
Project Management
Time Management
Ethics
Career
Management Functions Managing Technology Personal Technology
Managing Engineering and Technology
Advanced Organizer
Decision Making
Planning
Organizing
Leading
Controlling
Research
Design
Production
Quality
Marketing
Project Management
Time Management
Ethics
Career
Management Functions Managing Technology Personal Technology
Managing Engineering and Technology
Chapter Objectives
• Explain the importance of planning
• Identify missions and vision
• Explain the roles of goals and objectives
• Identify strategies a planning
• Define the different types of forecasting
• Define different approaches to forecasts
• Solve forecasting problems
• Discuss some strategies for managing
technology
Importance of Planning
• Provides method for identifying objectives
• Designs sequence of programs and
activities to achieve objectives
Effective Planning
• Plan to plan
• People implementing plan should be
involved in preparing plan
Nature of Planning
Deciding in advance what to do, how to
do it, when to do it, and who is to do
it.
--Amos & Sarchet
1. Recognize Problem / Opportunity
2. Define Goals/Objectives
3. Assemble Relevant Data
4. Identify Feasible Alts
7. Predict Alts’ Outcomes
8. Choose the Best Alt.
9. Audit the Results
Overall Mission
/ Objectives
5. Select the Criterion
6. Construct a Model
Planning/
Decision-Making Process
The Foundation for Planning
• Mission/Vision
• Goals and Objectives
• Strategies
All Customer Driven
Planning:
Mission Statement
• First step in planning process
• The mission statement answers the following
questions:
 Who we are?
 Who are the customers?
 What we do? and
 How we do it?
• This statement is usually one paragraph or less
in length, is easy to understand, and describes
the function of the organization.
Mission – Pal’s
To deliver excellence in food service while
providing a menu focused on exceptional
quality.
Mission Example
The mission of Southwest Airlines is
dedication to the highest quality of
Customer Service delivered with a sense
of warmth, friendliness, individual pride,
and Company Spirit.
http://www.southwest.com 9/9/05
Mission Example
At Microsoft, our mission and value are to
help people and businesses throughout
the world realize their full potential.
http://www.microsoft.com/about/default.mspx#values
Mission Example
Florida International University is an urban, multi-
campus, research university serving South Florida,
the state, the nation and the international
community. It fulfills its mission by imparting
knowledge through excellent teaching, promoting
public service, discovering new knowledge, solving
problems through research, and fostering
creativity.
http://www.fiu.edu/docs/fiumission_statement.htm
Vision
• A vision statement describes in graphic
terms where the goal-setters want to
position themselves in the future.
• A statement of how someone wants the
future to be or believes it will be; it is used
to set direction for an organization.
--“Information Systems Management in Practice” by B.C. McNurlin
Vision Example
“To Be the World's Preferred Chemical
Company” -- Eastman Chemical Company
"A personal computer on every desk, and
every computer running Microsoft
software." --Microsoft (1980’s)
Vision Example
We will be the preferred provider of safe,
reliable, and cost-effective products and
services that satisfy the electric-related
needs of all customer segments.
-- Florida Power & Light Co.
Top Urban Public Research University.
-- Florida International University
Mission/Vision Example
Our Mission
• Sustainable Growth: The creation of shareholder and
societal value while we reduce our environmental
footprint along the value chains in which we operate.
Our Vision
• To be the world's most dynamic science company,
creating sustainable solutions essential to a better, safer,
healthier life for people everywhere.
Our Core Values
• Safety and Health
• Environmental Stewardship
• Highest Ethical Behavior
• Respect for People
Planning:
Goal and Objectives
• Gives purpose and direction
• More detailed goal statement
• How do we go about it?
• To (action verb)
• Consistent with Mission/Vision
Planning:
Develop Objectives
• Specific
• Measurable
• Attainable
• Realistic
• Time-limited
Characteristics of Objectives
• Outcome - what is to be accomplished
• Time Frame - expected completion date
• Measure - metrics for success
• Action - how the objective will be met
Goals and Objectives
• Drucker’s Objectives for Organizational
Survival
– Market Share
– Innovation
– Productivity
– Physical and Financial Resources
– Manager Performance and Development
– Worker Performance and Attitude
– Profitability
– Social Responsibility
Management by Objectives
• Commonly Referred to as MBO
• Corollary MBWA
(Management by Walking Around)
Management by Objectives (MBO)
Translates broad organizational goals into
specific individual objectives.
1. Common understanding of overall
organization and group goals.
2. Mutual agreement on the subordinate’s
attention and superior’s support.
3. Execution
4. Review and evaluation
Strategic Planning
Strategies:
• Grand plans to attain longer-range
objectives
Strategic Planning:
• Identify where the organization is
• Identify where does it want to be in the
future
• Define a strategy to get there
Strategic Planning
Vision/Mission
Goals
Objectives
Strategies
SWOT Analysis Gap Analysis
Strategic Planning
Mission
Goal 1 Goal 2 Goal 3
Objective 1 Objective 2
Strategy 1
Strategy 2
Strategic Planning
• Suggests ways (strategies) to identify and
to move toward desired future states
• Consists of the process of developing and
implementing plans to reach goals and
objectives
• Not a business plan
• Not an operational plan
Strategic Planning
Vision/Mission
’
Strategic Issues
SWOT Analysis
Gap Analysis
Goals, Objectives
Vision/Mission
Strategic Issues
SWOT Analysis
Gap Analysis
Forecasting
Aligned towards meeting customer
expectations and within framework
Of organizations philosophy
Ongoing Strategic
Planning, Goals
Objectives, Strategies
SWOT Analysis
• Internal
– Strengths
– Weaknesses
• External
– Opportunities
– Threats
Some Planning Concepts
Responsibility for planning
• Planning is a continuing responsibility of
every manager.
• Higher the manger, more time and further into
future.
Planning Premises (assumptions)
• The anticipated environment in which plans
are expected to operate, including
assumptions and known conditions.
• Contingency plan
Some Planning Concepts
Planning Horizon
Logical planning encompasses a future period
of time necessary to fulfill the commitment
involved in decisions made today ($ and
time). – Commitment principle.
Some Planning Concepts
Policies:
Guides for decision making that permit
implementation of upper management
objectives, with room for interpretation and
discretion by subordinates.
Procedure:
A prescribed sequence of activities to
accomplish a desired purpose.
Strategic Planning:
Forecasting
Vision /Mission
’
Strategic Issues
SWOT Analysis
Gap Analysis
Goals , Objectives
Vision /Mission
Strategic Issues
SWOT Analysis
Gap Analysis
Forecasting
Aligned towards meeting customer
expectations and within framework
Of organization s philosophy
Ongoing Strategic
Planning , Goals
Objectives , Strategies
Forecasting
• Essential preliminary to effective planning
• Engineering manager must be concerned
with both future markets and future
technology
Forecasting
• Sales (Market) Estimates
• Technological Forecasting
Why Forecasting?
• New facility planning
• Production planning
• Work force scheduling
Long Range Forecasts
• Design new products
• Determine capacity for new facility
• Long range supply of materials
Short Range Forecasts
• Amount of inventory for next month
• Amount of product to produce next week
• How much raw material delivered next
week
• Workers schedule next week
Forecasting:
Qualitative Methods
Judgment Methods:
• Jury of executive opinion
• Sales force composite
• Users’ expectation
• Delphi method
Counting Methods:
• Market Testing
• Market Survey
Delphi Method
• Delphi coordinator develops objective of forecast
• Determine number of participants
• Select and contact participants
• Develop first questionnaire (opinions & forecasts) and
submit
• Coordinator analyzes responses
• Develop second questionnaire based on results of first
• Analyze responses
• Rounds continue until consensus reached or experts’
opinions cease to change
Delphi Method
• Eliminates effects of interactions between
members
• Experts do not need to know who other
experts are
• Reaches consensus
Forecasting:
Quantitative Methods
Time Series Methods
• Moving Average
• Weighted Moving Average
• Exponential Smoothing
Association or Causal Method
• Simple Regression
• Multiple Regression
Simple Moving Average


 
n
1
t
t
n
1
1
n A
F
Weighted Moving Average


 
n
1
t
t
t
1
n A
w
F



n
1
t
t 1
w
where
Exponential Smoothing
)
F
A
(
F
F n
n
n
1
n 


 












3
n
3
2
n
2
1
n
n
A
)
1
(
A
)
1
(
A
)
1
(
A







Excel:
Tools: Data Analysis
Damping Factor = 1 - 
n
n F
)
1
(
A 
 


Exponential Smoothing
Advantages:
• Simple in concept
• Powerful because of its weighting process.
Disadvantages:
• Exponential smoothing will lag as the trend
increases or decreases over time.
• Exponential smoothing will fail to account for the
dynamic changes.
Simple Regression Model
Excel: FORECAST (X, known_y’s, known_x’s)
SLOPE (known_y’s, known_x’s)
INTERCEPT (known_y’s, known_x’s)
 
  
 
  


 n
1
i
n
1
i
2
i
2
i
n
1
i
n
1
i
n
1
i i
i
i
i
)
I
(
)
I
(
n
)
D
)(
I
(
)
D
I
(
n
b
bI
a
D 

 
 


n
1
i
n
1
i i
i )
I
(
n
b
D
n
1
a
`





 2
3
3
2
2
1
1
0 I
c
I
1
c
I
c
c
D
http://www2.chass.ncsu.edu/garson/pa765/regress.htm
http://www.statsoft.com/textbook/stmulreg.html
http://www.minitab.com/resources/whitepapers/burril2.aspx
Multiple Regression Model
Technological Forecasting
Prediction that certain technical development
can occur within a specified time period with
a given level of resource allocation
• Normative technological forecasting:
After a desired future goal is selected, a process is
developed backward, from future to present, to achieve
a goal.
• Exploratory technological forecasting:
It begins with the present state of technology and
extrapolates into the future assuming some expected
rate of technical progress.
Technology S-curve
New Invention
Period
Technology Improvement
Period
Mature Technology
Period
Technology
Performance
Parameter
Natural Limits
Strategies for Managing Technology
• Doing new and better things
– Invention
– Innovation
• Doing things in new and better ways
– Quality
– Productivity
Entrepreneurship
• Entrepreneurship
– A person who organizes and manages a
business undertaking, assuming the risk for
the sake of profit.
• Intrapreneurship
– Continuing entrepreneurial activities to
create new products and new business.
Managing Technological Changes
• Internet
– Marketing (B2C)
– Purchasing, Supply Chain Management (B2B)
– Design, Manufacturing
– Customer Service
• Information Age
Government Regulation
• Environment concerns
• Safety

chap3_2008.ppt

  • 1.
  • 2.
    Advanced Organizer Decision Making Planning Organizing Leading Controlling Research Design Production Quality Marketing ProjectManagement Time Management Ethics Career Management Functions Managing Technology Personal Technology Managing Engineering and Technology
  • 3.
    Advanced Organizer Decision Making Planning Organizing Leading Controlling Research Design Production Quality Marketing ProjectManagement Time Management Ethics Career Management Functions Managing Technology Personal Technology Managing Engineering and Technology
  • 4.
    Chapter Objectives • Explainthe importance of planning • Identify missions and vision • Explain the roles of goals and objectives • Identify strategies a planning • Define the different types of forecasting • Define different approaches to forecasts • Solve forecasting problems • Discuss some strategies for managing technology
  • 5.
    Importance of Planning •Provides method for identifying objectives • Designs sequence of programs and activities to achieve objectives
  • 6.
    Effective Planning • Planto plan • People implementing plan should be involved in preparing plan
  • 7.
    Nature of Planning Decidingin advance what to do, how to do it, when to do it, and who is to do it. --Amos & Sarchet
  • 8.
    1. Recognize Problem/ Opportunity 2. Define Goals/Objectives 3. Assemble Relevant Data 4. Identify Feasible Alts 7. Predict Alts’ Outcomes 8. Choose the Best Alt. 9. Audit the Results Overall Mission / Objectives 5. Select the Criterion 6. Construct a Model Planning/ Decision-Making Process
  • 9.
    The Foundation forPlanning • Mission/Vision • Goals and Objectives • Strategies All Customer Driven
  • 10.
    Planning: Mission Statement • Firststep in planning process • The mission statement answers the following questions:  Who we are?  Who are the customers?  What we do? and  How we do it? • This statement is usually one paragraph or less in length, is easy to understand, and describes the function of the organization.
  • 11.
    Mission – Pal’s Todeliver excellence in food service while providing a menu focused on exceptional quality.
  • 12.
    Mission Example The missionof Southwest Airlines is dedication to the highest quality of Customer Service delivered with a sense of warmth, friendliness, individual pride, and Company Spirit. http://www.southwest.com 9/9/05
  • 13.
    Mission Example At Microsoft,our mission and value are to help people and businesses throughout the world realize their full potential. http://www.microsoft.com/about/default.mspx#values
  • 14.
    Mission Example Florida InternationalUniversity is an urban, multi- campus, research university serving South Florida, the state, the nation and the international community. It fulfills its mission by imparting knowledge through excellent teaching, promoting public service, discovering new knowledge, solving problems through research, and fostering creativity. http://www.fiu.edu/docs/fiumission_statement.htm
  • 15.
    Vision • A visionstatement describes in graphic terms where the goal-setters want to position themselves in the future. • A statement of how someone wants the future to be or believes it will be; it is used to set direction for an organization. --“Information Systems Management in Practice” by B.C. McNurlin
  • 16.
    Vision Example “To Bethe World's Preferred Chemical Company” -- Eastman Chemical Company "A personal computer on every desk, and every computer running Microsoft software." --Microsoft (1980’s)
  • 17.
    Vision Example We willbe the preferred provider of safe, reliable, and cost-effective products and services that satisfy the electric-related needs of all customer segments. -- Florida Power & Light Co. Top Urban Public Research University. -- Florida International University
  • 18.
    Mission/Vision Example Our Mission •Sustainable Growth: The creation of shareholder and societal value while we reduce our environmental footprint along the value chains in which we operate. Our Vision • To be the world's most dynamic science company, creating sustainable solutions essential to a better, safer, healthier life for people everywhere. Our Core Values • Safety and Health • Environmental Stewardship • Highest Ethical Behavior • Respect for People
  • 19.
    Planning: Goal and Objectives •Gives purpose and direction • More detailed goal statement • How do we go about it? • To (action verb) • Consistent with Mission/Vision
  • 20.
    Planning: Develop Objectives • Specific •Measurable • Attainable • Realistic • Time-limited
  • 21.
    Characteristics of Objectives •Outcome - what is to be accomplished • Time Frame - expected completion date • Measure - metrics for success • Action - how the objective will be met
  • 22.
    Goals and Objectives •Drucker’s Objectives for Organizational Survival – Market Share – Innovation – Productivity – Physical and Financial Resources – Manager Performance and Development – Worker Performance and Attitude – Profitability – Social Responsibility
  • 23.
    Management by Objectives •Commonly Referred to as MBO • Corollary MBWA (Management by Walking Around)
  • 24.
    Management by Objectives(MBO) Translates broad organizational goals into specific individual objectives. 1. Common understanding of overall organization and group goals. 2. Mutual agreement on the subordinate’s attention and superior’s support. 3. Execution 4. Review and evaluation
  • 25.
    Strategic Planning Strategies: • Grandplans to attain longer-range objectives Strategic Planning: • Identify where the organization is • Identify where does it want to be in the future • Define a strategy to get there
  • 26.
  • 27.
    Strategic Planning Mission Goal 1Goal 2 Goal 3 Objective 1 Objective 2 Strategy 1 Strategy 2
  • 28.
    Strategic Planning • Suggestsways (strategies) to identify and to move toward desired future states • Consists of the process of developing and implementing plans to reach goals and objectives • Not a business plan • Not an operational plan
  • 29.
    Strategic Planning Vision/Mission ’ Strategic Issues SWOTAnalysis Gap Analysis Goals, Objectives Vision/Mission Strategic Issues SWOT Analysis Gap Analysis Forecasting Aligned towards meeting customer expectations and within framework Of organizations philosophy Ongoing Strategic Planning, Goals Objectives, Strategies
  • 30.
    SWOT Analysis • Internal –Strengths – Weaknesses • External – Opportunities – Threats
  • 31.
    Some Planning Concepts Responsibilityfor planning • Planning is a continuing responsibility of every manager. • Higher the manger, more time and further into future. Planning Premises (assumptions) • The anticipated environment in which plans are expected to operate, including assumptions and known conditions. • Contingency plan
  • 32.
    Some Planning Concepts PlanningHorizon Logical planning encompasses a future period of time necessary to fulfill the commitment involved in decisions made today ($ and time). – Commitment principle.
  • 33.
    Some Planning Concepts Policies: Guidesfor decision making that permit implementation of upper management objectives, with room for interpretation and discretion by subordinates. Procedure: A prescribed sequence of activities to accomplish a desired purpose.
  • 34.
    Strategic Planning: Forecasting Vision /Mission ’ StrategicIssues SWOT Analysis Gap Analysis Goals , Objectives Vision /Mission Strategic Issues SWOT Analysis Gap Analysis Forecasting Aligned towards meeting customer expectations and within framework Of organization s philosophy Ongoing Strategic Planning , Goals Objectives , Strategies
  • 35.
    Forecasting • Essential preliminaryto effective planning • Engineering manager must be concerned with both future markets and future technology
  • 36.
    Forecasting • Sales (Market)Estimates • Technological Forecasting
  • 37.
    Why Forecasting? • Newfacility planning • Production planning • Work force scheduling
  • 38.
    Long Range Forecasts •Design new products • Determine capacity for new facility • Long range supply of materials
  • 39.
    Short Range Forecasts •Amount of inventory for next month • Amount of product to produce next week • How much raw material delivered next week • Workers schedule next week
  • 40.
    Forecasting: Qualitative Methods Judgment Methods: •Jury of executive opinion • Sales force composite • Users’ expectation • Delphi method Counting Methods: • Market Testing • Market Survey
  • 41.
    Delphi Method • Delphicoordinator develops objective of forecast • Determine number of participants • Select and contact participants • Develop first questionnaire (opinions & forecasts) and submit • Coordinator analyzes responses • Develop second questionnaire based on results of first • Analyze responses • Rounds continue until consensus reached or experts’ opinions cease to change
  • 42.
    Delphi Method • Eliminateseffects of interactions between members • Experts do not need to know who other experts are • Reaches consensus
  • 43.
    Forecasting: Quantitative Methods Time SeriesMethods • Moving Average • Weighted Moving Average • Exponential Smoothing Association or Causal Method • Simple Regression • Multiple Regression
  • 44.
    Simple Moving Average    n 1 t t n 1 1 n A F
  • 45.
    Weighted Moving Average    n 1 t t t 1 n A w F    n 1 t t 1 w where
  • 46.
    Exponential Smoothing ) F A ( F F n n n 1 n                 3 n 3 2 n 2 1 n n A ) 1 ( A ) 1 ( A ) 1 ( A        Excel: Tools: Data Analysis Damping Factor = 1 -  n n F ) 1 ( A     
  • 47.
    Exponential Smoothing Advantages: • Simplein concept • Powerful because of its weighting process. Disadvantages: • Exponential smoothing will lag as the trend increases or decreases over time. • Exponential smoothing will fail to account for the dynamic changes.
  • 48.
    Simple Regression Model Excel:FORECAST (X, known_y’s, known_x’s) SLOPE (known_y’s, known_x’s) INTERCEPT (known_y’s, known_x’s)              n 1 i n 1 i 2 i 2 i n 1 i n 1 i n 1 i i i i i ) I ( ) I ( n ) D )( I ( ) D I ( n b bI a D         n 1 i n 1 i i i ) I ( n b D n 1 a
  • 49.
  • 50.
    Technological Forecasting Prediction thatcertain technical development can occur within a specified time period with a given level of resource allocation • Normative technological forecasting: After a desired future goal is selected, a process is developed backward, from future to present, to achieve a goal. • Exploratory technological forecasting: It begins with the present state of technology and extrapolates into the future assuming some expected rate of technical progress.
  • 51.
    Technology S-curve New Invention Period TechnologyImprovement Period Mature Technology Period Technology Performance Parameter Natural Limits
  • 52.
    Strategies for ManagingTechnology • Doing new and better things – Invention – Innovation • Doing things in new and better ways – Quality – Productivity
  • 53.
    Entrepreneurship • Entrepreneurship – Aperson who organizes and manages a business undertaking, assuming the risk for the sake of profit. • Intrapreneurship – Continuing entrepreneurial activities to create new products and new business.
  • 54.
    Managing Technological Changes •Internet – Marketing (B2C) – Purchasing, Supply Chain Management (B2B) – Design, Manufacturing – Customer Service • Information Age
  • 55.