Submit Search
Upload
chap03--Discrete random variables probability ai and ml R2021.pdf
•
0 likes
•
2 views
M
mitopof121
Follow
AI and Ml anna University R2021
Read less
Read more
Engineering
Report
Share
Report
Share
1 of 40
Download now
Download to read offline
Recommended
Chap03 probability
Chap03 probability
Judianto Nugroho
Newbold_chap04.ppt
Newbold_chap04.ppt
cfisicaster
Bbs11 ppt ch04
Bbs11 ppt ch04
Tuul Tuul
Unit 4--probability and probability distribution (1).pptx
Unit 4--probability and probability distribution (1).pptx
akshay353895
[Junoon - E - Jee] - Probability - 13th Nov.pdf
[Junoon - E - Jee] - Probability - 13th Nov.pdf
PrakashPatra7
Probability
Probability
Seyid Kadher
Chap04 basic probability
Chap04 basic probability
Uni Azza Aunillah
Lecture on Statistics 1
Lecture on Statistics 1
SHAYA'A OTHMAN MANAGEMENT & RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Recommended
Chap03 probability
Chap03 probability
Judianto Nugroho
Newbold_chap04.ppt
Newbold_chap04.ppt
cfisicaster
Bbs11 ppt ch04
Bbs11 ppt ch04
Tuul Tuul
Unit 4--probability and probability distribution (1).pptx
Unit 4--probability and probability distribution (1).pptx
akshay353895
[Junoon - E - Jee] - Probability - 13th Nov.pdf
[Junoon - E - Jee] - Probability - 13th Nov.pdf
PrakashPatra7
Probability
Probability
Seyid Kadher
Chap04 basic probability
Chap04 basic probability
Uni Azza Aunillah
Lecture on Statistics 1
Lecture on Statistics 1
SHAYA'A OTHMAN MANAGEMENT & RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
chap05123111111111111111111111111111111.ppt
chap05123111111111111111111111111111111.ppt
KChit
1 Probability Please read sections 3.1 – 3.3 in your .docx
1 Probability Please read sections 3.1 – 3.3 in your .docx
aryan532920
Applied Business Statistics ,ken black , ch 4
Applied Business Statistics ,ken black , ch 4
AbdelmonsifFadl
1-Probability-Conditional-Bayes.pdf
1-Probability-Conditional-Bayes.pdf
KrushangDilipbhaiPar
3.2 probablity
3.2 probablity
University of Salahaddin-Erbil
Information Theory and coding - Lecture 1
Information Theory and coding - Lecture 1
Aref35
Probexamp
Probexamp
Jasonleav
Lecture 14.ppt
Lecture 14.ppt
TanvirIslam461642
Probability cheatsheet
Probability cheatsheet
Suvrat Mishra
Data Distribution &The Probability Distributions
Data Distribution &The Probability Distributions
mahaaltememe
Probability concepts-applications-1235015791722176-2
Probability concepts-applications-1235015791722176-2
satysun1990
Probability Concepts Applications
Probability Concepts Applications
guest44b78
Basic Concept Of Probability
Basic Concept Of Probability
guest45a926
CSE357 fa21 (1) Course Intro and Probability 8-26.pdf
CSE357 fa21 (1) Course Intro and Probability 8-26.pdf
NermeenKamel7
Theorems And Conditional Probability
Theorems And Conditional Probability
mathscontent
Theorems And Conditional Probability
Theorems And Conditional Probability
DataminingTools Inc
mi al material ISM_Session_4 _ 16th and 17th December (2).pptx
mi al material ISM_Session_4 _ 16th and 17th December (2).pptx
ssuser1eba67
Basic Probability
Basic Probability
Yesica Adicondro
Reliability-Engineering.pdf
Reliability-Engineering.pdf
BakiyalakshmiR1
Probability and probability distributions ppt @ bec doms
Probability and probability distributions ppt @ bec doms
Babasab Patil
Software Development Life Cycle By Team Orange (Dept. of Pharmacy)
Software Development Life Cycle By Team Orange (Dept. of Pharmacy)
Suman Mia
★ CALL US 9953330565 ( HOT Young Call Girls In Badarpur delhi NCR
★ CALL US 9953330565 ( HOT Young Call Girls In Badarpur delhi NCR
9953056974 Low Rate Call Girls In Saket, Delhi NCR
More Related Content
Similar to chap03--Discrete random variables probability ai and ml R2021.pdf
chap05123111111111111111111111111111111.ppt
chap05123111111111111111111111111111111.ppt
KChit
1 Probability Please read sections 3.1 – 3.3 in your .docx
1 Probability Please read sections 3.1 – 3.3 in your .docx
aryan532920
Applied Business Statistics ,ken black , ch 4
Applied Business Statistics ,ken black , ch 4
AbdelmonsifFadl
1-Probability-Conditional-Bayes.pdf
1-Probability-Conditional-Bayes.pdf
KrushangDilipbhaiPar
3.2 probablity
3.2 probablity
University of Salahaddin-Erbil
Information Theory and coding - Lecture 1
Information Theory and coding - Lecture 1
Aref35
Probexamp
Probexamp
Jasonleav
Lecture 14.ppt
Lecture 14.ppt
TanvirIslam461642
Probability cheatsheet
Probability cheatsheet
Suvrat Mishra
Data Distribution &The Probability Distributions
Data Distribution &The Probability Distributions
mahaaltememe
Probability concepts-applications-1235015791722176-2
Probability concepts-applications-1235015791722176-2
satysun1990
Probability Concepts Applications
Probability Concepts Applications
guest44b78
Basic Concept Of Probability
Basic Concept Of Probability
guest45a926
CSE357 fa21 (1) Course Intro and Probability 8-26.pdf
CSE357 fa21 (1) Course Intro and Probability 8-26.pdf
NermeenKamel7
Theorems And Conditional Probability
Theorems And Conditional Probability
mathscontent
Theorems And Conditional Probability
Theorems And Conditional Probability
DataminingTools Inc
mi al material ISM_Session_4 _ 16th and 17th December (2).pptx
mi al material ISM_Session_4 _ 16th and 17th December (2).pptx
ssuser1eba67
Basic Probability
Basic Probability
Yesica Adicondro
Reliability-Engineering.pdf
Reliability-Engineering.pdf
BakiyalakshmiR1
Probability and probability distributions ppt @ bec doms
Probability and probability distributions ppt @ bec doms
Babasab Patil
Similar to chap03--Discrete random variables probability ai and ml R2021.pdf
(20)
chap05123111111111111111111111111111111.ppt
chap05123111111111111111111111111111111.ppt
1 Probability Please read sections 3.1 – 3.3 in your .docx
1 Probability Please read sections 3.1 – 3.3 in your .docx
Applied Business Statistics ,ken black , ch 4
Applied Business Statistics ,ken black , ch 4
1-Probability-Conditional-Bayes.pdf
1-Probability-Conditional-Bayes.pdf
3.2 probablity
3.2 probablity
Information Theory and coding - Lecture 1
Information Theory and coding - Lecture 1
Probexamp
Probexamp
Lecture 14.ppt
Lecture 14.ppt
Probability cheatsheet
Probability cheatsheet
Data Distribution &The Probability Distributions
Data Distribution &The Probability Distributions
Probability concepts-applications-1235015791722176-2
Probability concepts-applications-1235015791722176-2
Probability Concepts Applications
Probability Concepts Applications
Basic Concept Of Probability
Basic Concept Of Probability
CSE357 fa21 (1) Course Intro and Probability 8-26.pdf
CSE357 fa21 (1) Course Intro and Probability 8-26.pdf
Theorems And Conditional Probability
Theorems And Conditional Probability
Theorems And Conditional Probability
Theorems And Conditional Probability
mi al material ISM_Session_4 _ 16th and 17th December (2).pptx
mi al material ISM_Session_4 _ 16th and 17th December (2).pptx
Basic Probability
Basic Probability
Reliability-Engineering.pdf
Reliability-Engineering.pdf
Probability and probability distributions ppt @ bec doms
Probability and probability distributions ppt @ bec doms
Recently uploaded
Software Development Life Cycle By Team Orange (Dept. of Pharmacy)
Software Development Life Cycle By Team Orange (Dept. of Pharmacy)
Suman Mia
★ CALL US 9953330565 ( HOT Young Call Girls In Badarpur delhi NCR
★ CALL US 9953330565 ( HOT Young Call Girls In Badarpur delhi NCR
9953056974 Low Rate Call Girls In Saket, Delhi NCR
Analog to Digital and Digital to Analog Converter
Analog to Digital and Digital to Analog Converter
AbhinavSharma374939
GDSC ASEB Gen AI study jams presentation
GDSC ASEB Gen AI study jams presentation
GDSCAESB
Coefficient of Thermal Expansion and their Importance.pptx
Coefficient of Thermal Expansion and their Importance.pptx
Asutosh Ranjan
VIP Call Girls Service Hitech City Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
VIP Call Girls Service Hitech City Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
Suhani Kapoor
High Profile Call Girls Nagpur Meera Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
High Profile Call Girls Nagpur Meera Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
Call Girls in Nagpur High Profile
Extrusion Processes and Their Limitations
Extrusion Processes and Their Limitations
120cr0395
VIP Call Girls Service Kondapur Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
VIP Call Girls Service Kondapur Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
Suhani Kapoor
The Most Attractive Pune Call Girls Budhwar Peth 8250192130 Will You Miss Thi...
The Most Attractive Pune Call Girls Budhwar Peth 8250192130 Will You Miss Thi...
ranjana rawat
Call Girls in Nagpur Suman Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
Call Girls in Nagpur Suman Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
Call Girls in Nagpur High Profile
Sheet Pile Wall Design and Construction: A Practical Guide for Civil Engineer...
Sheet Pile Wall Design and Construction: A Practical Guide for Civil Engineer...
Dr.Costas Sachpazis
(ANJALI) Dange Chowk Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(ANJALI) Dange Chowk Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
ranjana rawat
HARDNESS, FRACTURE TOUGHNESS AND STRENGTH OF CERAMICS
HARDNESS, FRACTURE TOUGHNESS AND STRENGTH OF CERAMICS
RajkumarAkumalla
(RIA) Call Girls Bhosari ( 7001035870 ) HI-Fi Pune Escorts Service
(RIA) Call Girls Bhosari ( 7001035870 ) HI-Fi Pune Escorts Service
ranjana rawat
Roadmap to Membership of RICS - Pathways and Routes
Roadmap to Membership of RICS - Pathways and Routes
M Maged Hegazy, LLM, MBA, CCP, P3O
DJARUM4D - SLOT GACOR ONLINE | SLOT DEMO ONLINE
DJARUM4D - SLOT GACOR ONLINE | SLOT DEMO ONLINE
slot gacor bisa pakai pulsa
Microscopic Analysis of Ceramic Materials.pptx
Microscopic Analysis of Ceramic Materials.pptx
purnimasatapathy1234
Exploring_Network_Security_with_JA3_by_Rakesh Seal.pptx
Exploring_Network_Security_with_JA3_by_Rakesh Seal.pptx
null - The Open Security Community
(MEERA) Dapodi Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pune Escorts
(MEERA) Dapodi Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pune Escorts
ranjana rawat
Recently uploaded
(20)
Software Development Life Cycle By Team Orange (Dept. of Pharmacy)
Software Development Life Cycle By Team Orange (Dept. of Pharmacy)
★ CALL US 9953330565 ( HOT Young Call Girls In Badarpur delhi NCR
★ CALL US 9953330565 ( HOT Young Call Girls In Badarpur delhi NCR
Analog to Digital and Digital to Analog Converter
Analog to Digital and Digital to Analog Converter
GDSC ASEB Gen AI study jams presentation
GDSC ASEB Gen AI study jams presentation
Coefficient of Thermal Expansion and their Importance.pptx
Coefficient of Thermal Expansion and their Importance.pptx
VIP Call Girls Service Hitech City Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
VIP Call Girls Service Hitech City Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
High Profile Call Girls Nagpur Meera Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
High Profile Call Girls Nagpur Meera Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
Extrusion Processes and Their Limitations
Extrusion Processes and Their Limitations
VIP Call Girls Service Kondapur Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
VIP Call Girls Service Kondapur Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
The Most Attractive Pune Call Girls Budhwar Peth 8250192130 Will You Miss Thi...
The Most Attractive Pune Call Girls Budhwar Peth 8250192130 Will You Miss Thi...
Call Girls in Nagpur Suman Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
Call Girls in Nagpur Suman Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
Sheet Pile Wall Design and Construction: A Practical Guide for Civil Engineer...
Sheet Pile Wall Design and Construction: A Practical Guide for Civil Engineer...
(ANJALI) Dange Chowk Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(ANJALI) Dange Chowk Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
HARDNESS, FRACTURE TOUGHNESS AND STRENGTH OF CERAMICS
HARDNESS, FRACTURE TOUGHNESS AND STRENGTH OF CERAMICS
(RIA) Call Girls Bhosari ( 7001035870 ) HI-Fi Pune Escorts Service
(RIA) Call Girls Bhosari ( 7001035870 ) HI-Fi Pune Escorts Service
Roadmap to Membership of RICS - Pathways and Routes
Roadmap to Membership of RICS - Pathways and Routes
DJARUM4D - SLOT GACOR ONLINE | SLOT DEMO ONLINE
DJARUM4D - SLOT GACOR ONLINE | SLOT DEMO ONLINE
Microscopic Analysis of Ceramic Materials.pptx
Microscopic Analysis of Ceramic Materials.pptx
Exploring_Network_Security_with_JA3_by_Rakesh Seal.pptx
Exploring_Network_Security_with_JA3_by_Rakesh Seal.pptx
(MEERA) Dapodi Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pune Escorts
(MEERA) Dapodi Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pune Escorts
chap03--Discrete random variables probability ai and ml R2021.pdf
1.
Chapter 3 Probability Statistics for Business
and Economics 7th Edition Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-1
2.
Chapter Goals After completing
this chapter, you should be able to: Explain basic probability concepts and definitions Use a Venn diagram or tree diagram to illustrate simple probabilities Apply common rules of probability Compute conditional probabilities Determine whether events are statistically independent Use Bayes’ Theorem for conditional probabilities Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-2
3.
Important Terms Random
Experiment – a process leading to an uncertain outcome Basic Outcome – a possible outcome of a random experiment Sample Space – the collection of all possible outcomes of a random experiment Event – any subset of basic outcomes from the sample space Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-3 3.1
4.
Important Terms Intersection
of Events – If A and B are two events in a sample space S, then the intersection, A ∩ B, is the set of all outcomes in S that belong to both A and B (continued) A B AB S Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-4
5.
Important Terms A
and B are Mutually Exclusive Events if they have no basic outcomes in common i.e., the set A ∩ B is empty (continued) A B S Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-5
6.
Important Terms Union
of Events – If A and B are two events in a sample space S, then the union, A U B, is the set of all outcomes in S that belong to either A or B (continued) A B The entire shaded area represents A U B S Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-6
7.
Important Terms Events
E1, E2, … Ek are Collectively Exhaustive events if E1 U E2 U . . . U Ek = S i.e., the events completely cover the sample space The Complement of an event A is the set of all basic outcomes in the sample space that do not belong to A. The complement is denoted (continued) A A S A Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-7
8.
Examples Let the Sample
Space be the collection of all possible outcomes of rolling one die: S = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6] Let A be the event “Number rolled is even” Let B be the event “Number rolled is at least 4” Then A = [2, 4, 6] and B = [4, 5, 6] Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-8
9.
Examples (continued) S = [1,
2, 3, 4, 5, 6] A = [2, 4, 6] B = [4, 5, 6] 5] 3, [1, A 6] [4, B A 6] 5, 4, [2, B A S 6] 5, 4, 3, 2, [1, A A Complements: Intersections: Unions: [5] B A 3] 2, [1, B Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-9
10.
Examples Mutually exclusive:
A and B are not mutually exclusive The outcomes 4 and 6 are common to both Collectively exhaustive: A and B are not collectively exhaustive A U B does not contain 1 or 3 (continued) S = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6] A = [2, 4, 6] B = [4, 5, 6] Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-10
11.
Probability Probability –
the chance that an uncertain event will occur (always between 0 and 1) 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1 For any event A Certain Impossible .5 1 0 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-11 3.2
12.
Assessing Probability There
are three approaches to assessing the probability of an uncertain event: 1. classical probability Assumes all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to occur space sample the in outcomes of number total event the satisfy that outcomes of number N N A event of y probabilit A Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-12
13.
Counting the Possible
Outcomes Use the Combinations formula to determine the number of combinations of n things taken k at a time where n! = n(n-1)(n-2)…(1) 0! = 1 by definition k)! (n k! n! Cn k Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-13
14.
Assessing Probability Three approaches
(continued) 2. relative frequency probability the limit of the proportion of times that an event A occurs in a large number of trials, n 3. subjective probability an individual opinion or belief about the probability of occurrence population the in events of number total A event satisfy that population the in events of number n n A event of y probabilit A Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-14
15.
Probability Postulates 1. If
A is any event in the sample space S, then 2. Let A be an event in S, and let Oi denote the basic outcomes. Then (the notation means that the summation is over all the basic outcomes in A) 3. P(S) = 1 1 P(A) 0 ) P(O P(A) A i Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-15
16.
Probability Rules The
Complement rule: The Addition rule: The probability of the union of two events is 1 ) A P( P(A) i.e., P(A) 1 ) A P( B) P(A P(B) P(A) B) P(A Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-16 3.3
17.
A Probability Table B A A B ) B P(A
) B A P( B) A P( P(A) B) P(A ) A P( ) B P( P(B) 1.0 P(S) Probabilities and joint probabilities for two events A and B are summarized in this table: Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-17
18.
Addition Rule Example Consider
a standard deck of 52 cards, with four suits: ♥ ♣ ♦ ♠ Let event A = card is an Ace Let event B = card is from a red suit Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-18
19.
Addition Rule Example P(Red
U Ace) = P(Red) + P(Ace) - P(Red ∩ Ace) = 26/52 + 4/52 - 2/52 = 28/52 Don’t count the two red aces twice! Black Color Type Red Total Ace 2 2 4 Non-Ace 24 24 48 Total 26 26 52 (continued) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-19
20.
Conditional Probability A
conditional probability is the probability of one event, given that another event has occurred: P(B) B) P(A B) | P(A P(A) B) P(A A) | P(B The conditional probability of A given that B has occurred The conditional probability of B given that A has occurred Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-20
21.
Conditional Probability Example
What is the probability that a car has a CD player, given that it has AC ? i.e., we want to find P(CD | AC) Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air conditioning (AC) and 40% have a CD player (CD). 20% of the cars have both. Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-21
22.
Conditional Probability Example No
CD CD Total AC .2 .5 .7 No AC .2 .1 .3 Total .4 .6 1.0 Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air conditioning (AC) and 40% have a CD player (CD). 20% of the cars have both. .2857 .7 .2 P(AC) AC) P(CD AC) | P(CD (continued) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-22
23.
Conditional Probability Example No
CD CD Total AC .2 .5 .7 No AC .2 .1 .3 Total .4 .6 1.0 Given AC, we only consider the top row (70% of the cars). Of these, 20% have a CD player. 20% of 70% is 28.57%. .2857 .7 .2 P(AC) AC) P(CD AC) | P(CD (continued) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-23
24.
Multiplication Rule Multiplication
rule for two events A and B: also P(B) B) | P(A B) P(A P(A) A) | P(B B) P(A Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-24
25.
Multiplication Rule Example P(Red
∩ Ace) = P(Red| Ace)P(Ace) Black Color Type Red Total Ace 2 2 4 Non-Ace 24 24 48 Total 26 26 52 52 2 52 4 4 2 52 2 cards of number total ace and red are that cards of number Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-25
26.
Statistical Independence Two
events are statistically independent if and only if: Events A and B are independent when the probability of one event is not affected by the other event If A and B are independent, then P(A) B) | P(A P(B) P(A) B) P(A P(B) A) | P(B if P(B)>0 if P(A)>0 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-26
27.
Statistical Independence Example No
CD CD Total AC .2 .5 .7 No AC .2 .1 .3 Total .4 .6 1.0 Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air conditioning (AC) and 40% have a CD player (CD). 20% of the cars have both. Are the events AC and CD statistically independent? Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-27
28.
Statistical Independence Example No
CD CD Total AC .2 .5 .7 No AC .2 .1 .3 Total .4 .6 1.0 (continued) P(AC ∩ CD) = 0.2 P(AC) = 0.7 P(CD) = 0.4 P(AC)P(CD) = (0.7)(0.4) = 0.28 P(AC ∩ CD) = 0.2 ≠ P(AC)P(CD) = 0.28 So the two events are not statistically independent Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-28
29.
Bivariate Probabilities B1 B2
. . . Bk A1 P(A1B1) P(A1B2) . . . P(A1Bk) A2 P(A2B1) P(A2B2) . . . P(A2Bk) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ah P(AhB1) P(AhB2) . . . P(AhBk) Outcomes for bivariate events: Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-29 3.4
30.
Joint and Marginal Probabilities
The probability of a joint event, A ∩ B: Computing a marginal probability: Where B1, B2, …, Bk are k mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events outcomes elementary of number total B and A satisfying outcomes of number B) P(A ) B P(A ) B P(A ) B P(A P(A) k 2 1 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-30
31.
Marginal Probability Example P(Ace) Black Color Type
Red Total Ace 2 2 4 Non-Ace 24 24 48 Total 26 26 52 52 4 52 2 52 2 Black) P(Ace Red) P(Ace Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-31
32.
Using a Tree
Diagram P(AC ∩ CD) = .2 P(AC ∩ CD) = .5 P(AC ∩ CD) = .1 P(AC ∩ CD) = .2 7 . 5 . 3 . 2 . 3 . 1 . All Cars 7 . 2 . Given AC or no AC: Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-32
33.
Odds The odds
in favor of a particular event are given by the ratio of the probability of the event divided by the probability of its complement The odds in favor of A are ) A P( P(A) P(A) 1- P(A) odds Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-33
34.
Odds: Example Calculate
the probability of winning if the odds of winning are 3 to 1: Now multiply both sides by 1 – P(A) and solve for P(A): 3 x (1- P(A)) = P(A) 3 – 3P(A) = P(A) 3 = 4P(A) P(A) = 0.75 P(A) 1- P(A) 1 3 odds Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-34
35.
Overinvolvement Ratio The
probability of event A1 conditional on event B1 divided by the probability of A1 conditional on activity B2 is defined as the overinvolvement ratio: An overinvolvement ratio greater than 1 implies that event A1 increases the conditional odds ration in favor of B1: ) B | P(A ) B | P(A 2 1 1 1 ) P(B ) P(B ) A | P(B ) A | P(B 2 1 1 2 1 1 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-35
36.
Bayes’ Theorem where: Ei
= ith event of k mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events A = new event that might impact P(Ei) ) )P(E E | P(A ) )P(E E | P(A ) )P(E E | P(A ) )P(E E | P(A P(A) ) )P(E E | P(A A) | P(E k k 2 2 1 1 i i i i i Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-36 3.5
37.
Bayes’ Theorem Example
A drilling company has estimated a 40% chance of striking oil for their new well. A detailed test has been scheduled for more information. Historically, 60% of successful wells have had detailed tests, and 20% of unsuccessful wells have had detailed tests. Given that this well has been scheduled for a detailed test, what is the probability that the well will be successful? Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-37
38.
Let S
= successful well U = unsuccessful well P(S) = .4 , P(U) = .6 (prior probabilities) Define the detailed test event as D Conditional probabilities: P(D|S) = .6 P(D|U) = .2 Goal is to find P(S|D) Bayes’ Theorem Example (continued) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-38
39.
So the revised
probability of success (from the original estimate of .4), given that this well has been scheduled for a detailed test, is .667 667 . 12 . 24 . 24 . ) 6 )(. 2 (. ) 4 )(. 6 (. ) 4 )(. 6 (. U)P(U) | P(D S)P(S) | P(D S)P(S) | P(D D) | P(S Bayes’ Theorem Example (continued) Apply Bayes’ Theorem: Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-39
40.
Chapter Summary Defined
basic probability concepts Sample spaces and events, intersection and union of events, mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events, complements Examined basic probability rules Complement rule, addition rule, multiplication rule Defined conditional, joint, and marginal probabilities Reviewed odds and the overinvolvement ratio Defined statistical independence Discussed Bayes’ theorem Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 3-40
Download now