challengesfuturescenarioofsteelindustry-1-140117132902-phpapp01.pdf

Challenges & Future
Scenario of Steel Industry
PRESENTED BY : GS DHIR

Executive Summary
 Globally, steel players have been operating in a challenging environment with rising input
costs and persistent lower capacity utilization. This is driven by Low demand growth in
developed markets, accompanied by a structural shift in the global steel industry to
developing countries like China and India.
 Over the last decade, Indian steel companies have consistently achieved higher earnings
before interest depreciation taxes and amortization (EBIDTA) margins as compared to their
global peers and have delivered steady growth despite external challenges.
 Having established quality assets, Indian steel companies are now well poised to take
advantage of expansion and growth opportunities in India. However, six long-term
challenges are confronting the Indian steel industry’s growth aspirations
1/17/2014 11:29:07 AM Prepared by Gsdhir 2

•Volatile domestic iron ore supply is forcing Indian steel companies to pay higher prices or
import this key raw material thereby exposing them to global iron ore price volatility.
•Flat products supply will exceed demand, leading to an overcapacity situation. This
coupled with the muted demand growth will put significant pressure on margins.
• Customers are maturing and increasingly demanding value-added products and services.
•Existing supply chains are stretched in order to cope with the wide range of customers and
product specifications— original equipment manufacturers (OEM) at one end, to the rural
retail markets at the other—which impact service levels.
•In the race to maintain market share, incumbents have taken on Greenfield and brownfield
expansion plans at a pace and scale unprecedented in the Past. Skill gaps and other
challenges have led to cost and time over-runs on these projects, putting further stress on the
already stretched balance sheets.
•Investments in management processes, systems and people capabilities have not kept
pace with the investments in assets and the changing market place. This is increasingly
becoming a bottleneck for growth.

Key Capabilities to become game
changers
 Resource acquisition, development and operations
The pursuit of raw material security has led Indian steel companies to seek mining leases and
assets globally. The capability to acquire, develop and operate these assets has become a
key strategic imperative. These assets provide a natural hedge at the raw material portfolio
level, and are also important for overcoming the short-term domestic challenges.
 Efficient capital project management
TheIndian steel companies are increasingly undertaking larger, more complex and riskier
projects to meet their capacity goals. Their ability to successfully execute these projects is
hindered by regulatory challenges, limited talent pools, contractors and construction labour
constraints, increasing infrastructure requirements, and expectations of compliance with
superior safety and environmental norms. Capital investments have not been accompanied
by a commensurate investment in enhancing capability to plan and execute these projects.

 Customer-Centric Sales and Marketing
As Indian steel companies expand, they are increasingly facing an overlap in their market
and product footprint. This coupled with a lower demand growth has led to increased price
competition and pressure on margins. In this scenario, increased customer centricity will
differentiate the high performers.
 Differentiated Supply Chains
Global trends are driving increased product and distribution complexity, as diverse and
digitally-empowered customers demand ever-more tailored products and services. To
remain competitive, companies across industries must embrace this growing complexity
while maintaining the benefits of simple, streamlined supply chains to deliver their aspirations
of growth, cost, working capital and sustainability.
 Human capital management
India steel companies’ ability to manage and leverage its human capital will become a key
differentiator and will play a key role in enabling their growth aspirations. We believe Indian
steel companies will need to address the 4 D’s of managing talent.
Define Discover Develop Deploy

Current state of Indian Steel Industry
 The Indian steel industry has entered into a new era of development since 2007-08, riding high
on the resurgent economy and robust demand for steel. Rapid rise in production has resulted in
India becoming the 4th largest producer of crude steel and the largest producer of sponge iron
in the world.
 Domestic steel demand to remain muted during FY2012–17 on account of a weak macro
economic environment The demand for longs is expected to increase by 19 million ton (MT) at
a CAGR of 9 percent and for flats by 16 MT at a CAGR of 8 percent between FY2012 and
FY2017 . This is due to relatively weaker growth prospects of flats end-user industries (such as
automotive and consumer durables) than those for longs.
 Increased domestic competition Incumbents and challengers have announced 71 million ton
per annum (MTPA) of steel capacity addition between FY2012 and FY2017 through both
brownfield and greenfield routes. However, there is considerable uncertainty on the actual
capacity addition as many projects are yet to achieve financial closure due to delays or lack of
regulatory clearances.

Based on our bottom-up assessment of the announced capacity additions,
projects aggregating to 35 MTPA of crude steel capacity have already achieved
financial closure. Hence, we expect a minimum aggregate capacity of 122 MTPA
to be commissioned by FY2017.
This capacity addition will lead to two structural changes. First, the concentration in
the longs segment will increase by 5–7 percent in the medium term, deepening the
sustainability challenge for secondary producers. Second, it will shift the current flats-
longs capacity split of 50:50 to 60:40 by FY2017, if all the announced projects are
commissioned. As a result, one can expect oversupply in flats and a capacity shortfall
in longs.

Major steel producing countries 2012:
China (716.5mt)
Japan (107.2mt)
United States (88.7mt)
India (77.6mt)
Russia (70.4mt)
Major Exporter of steel according to 2012:
China (54.8mt)
European Union (47.1mt)
Japan (41.5mt)
Russia (26.7mt)
India 17th place (8.2mt)

Major Importer of steel according to 2012:
United States (31.5mt)
European Union (29.5mt)
Germany (22.9mt)
South Korea (20.4mt)
India 13th place (9.3mt)
List of Top Steel Companies in India:
TATA steel (20%) - Mumbai
SAIL (10%)- New Delhi
JSW steel (8%)- Mumbai
Visa steel (5%)- Jaipur
Bhushan steel (3%)- New Delhi

50
45.5
45
40
35
30
7
5.6 4.7 4.5 4.5
2.3 2.3
23.6
0
5
10
20
15
25
China Japan US India Russia South
Korea
Ukraine Brazil ROW
Market share of steel by countries in 2012

Fourth-largest producer
of crude steel
• Steel production in India has increased at a CAGR of 7.7 per cent over 2005–12. The
country is slated to become the second-largest steel producer by 2015 as large public and
private sector players strengthen steel production capacity in view of rising demand
Strong growth
opportunities
• Huge scope for growth is offered by India‟s comparatively low per capita steel
consumption and the expected rise in consumption due to increased infrastructure
construction and the thriving automobile and railways sectors
Technological
advancements
• Increased government and corporate sector focus on using innovative production
techniques for enhancing operational as well as financial performance is a positive
Rising domestic and
international
investments
• Domestic players‟ investments in expanding and upgrading manufacturing facilities are
expected to reduce reliance on imports. In addition, the entry of international players*
would provide benefits in terms of capital resources, technical know-how and more
competitive industry dynamics
Notes: * - Arcelor Mittal and POSCO

Notes: TISCO - Tata Iron and Steel Company; IISC - Indian Iron & Steel Company; SAIL - Steel Authority of India Ltd
• Production of
steel started in
India (TISCO
was setup in
1907)
• IISC was set up
in 1918 to
compete with
TISCO
• Mysore Iron and
Steel Company
was set up in 1923
• According to the
new Industrial
Policy Statement
(1948), new
ventures were only
undertaken by the
central government
• Hindustan Steel Ltd
and Bokaro Steel Ltd
were setup in 1954
and 1964,
respectively
• In the early 1990s,
the public sector
dominated steel
production
• Private players were
in downstream
production mainly
producing finished
steel using crude
steel products
• SAIL was created
in 1973 as a
holding company
to oversee most
of India's iron and
steel production
• In 1989, SAIL
acquired
Vivesvata Iron
and Steel Ltd
• In 1993, the
government set
plans in motion to
partially privatise
SAIL
1907–1918
1923–1948
1993–2012
1973–1992
1954–1964
• Foreign players
began entering the
Indian steel market
• No license
requirement for
capacity creation
• Imposition of export
duty on iron ore, to
focus more on
catering growing
domestic demand
• Decontrol of domestic
steel prices
• Launch of Scheme for
promotion of
Research and
Development in Iron
& Steel sector

Steel
End use
Structural
steel
Construction
steel
Rail steel
Form
Liquid steel Crude steel
Ingots
Semis
Finished steel
Flat
Non-flat
Composition
Non-alloy
steel
Low carbon
steel
Medium
carbon steel
High carbon
steel
Alloy
Stainless
Silicon
electrical
High speed
Source: Report on Indian steel
industry by Competition Commission
of India, Aranca Research

T
otal crude steel production (million tonnes)
Total crude steel production rose at a CAGR of 6.6 per cent over FY08–11 to 69.6 MT; production in the first nine months
of FY12 was a little more than three-fourth of FY11 levels
Finished steel production stood at 66.0 MT in FY11, recording a CAGR of 4.2 per cent during FY08–11; analysts expect
production figures to improve rapidly over the next five years with the Ministry of Steel forecasting production levels at
115.3 MT by FY17
T
otal finished steel production (million tonnes)
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11* FY12* (April -
Dec)
Public sector Private sector
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11*
Private sector
FY12* (April -
Dec)
Public sector
Source: Ministry of Steel, Aranca Research;
Notes: FY - Indian Financial Year (April – March); MT - Million Tonnes, * - Provisional; CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
52.6
49.1
42.1
36.8 41.1
17.1 16.4 16.7 17.0
12.3
52.9
47.6
42.6 44.5
43.4
13.5 12.7 13.0 13.1
8.6

India crude steel market share by production -
- FY12* (Apr-Dec)
SAIL is the leading player in India‟s steel sector; in the first nine months of FY12, the company accounted for 18.7 per cent
of the country‟s crude steel production and had a 13.5 per cent share in finished steel production
Tata Steel, another household name in the country, leads private sector activity in the steel sector; during April– December
2011, the firm accounted for 9.9 per cent of crude steel production and 7.8 per cent of finished steel production
India finished steel market share by production
- FY12* (Apr-Dec)
Source: Ministry of Steel, Aranca Research;
Notes: RINL - Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited, * - Provisional
9.9%
18.7%
4.3%
67.1%
Tata Steel
SAIL
RINL
Other
7.8%
13.5%
4.0%
74.7%
Tata Steel
SAIL
RINL
Other

Market value of the Indian steel sector
(USD billion)
In 2011, the Indian steel sector‟s total market value was
USD57.8 billion
The sector has benefitted from rises in price and
millennium
Over 2007–11, the sector‟s market value is estimated to
have posted a strong CAGR of 17.7 per cent 30.1
43.0
36.5
46.8
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
CAGR: 17.7%
Source: Datamonitor, Aranca Research
Note: E - Estimates

Consumption of steel (in million tonnes)
Total consumption of steel exceeded production and grew
to 70.9 MT in FY12 as against 66.4 MT in FY11; over
cent
Driven by rising infrastructure development and growing
demand for automotives, steel consumption is expected to
grow at an average rate of 6.8 per cent, reaching 104 MT by
2017
Source: Ministry of Steel, Indian Steel Markets Conference,
Datamonitor, BMI, Aranca Research
Notes: FY12* - Data for FY12 is provisional, MT - Million Tonnes
46.8
52.1 51.9
59.3
66.4
70.9
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12*
CAGR: 8.7%

Steel demand and production (in million tonnes)
With steel‟s demand growth outpacing growth in domestic production over the last few years, import dependency has
increased
Imports have increased at a CAGR of 6.8 per cent over FY07–12
In FY12, total imports stood at about 6.8 MT
Steel exports and imports (in million tonnes)
Source: Ministry of Steel, JSPL presentation, Aranca Research
Notes: FY - Indian Financial Year (April - March), * - Data for FY12 is provisional
67
71 69
64 7.0 7.4
55 53 55 55 60 57
50 50
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12*
Demand Production Imports Exports
6.8 6.8
5.8
4.9 5.2 5.1 4.4
3.5 4.0
3.3

Source: JSPL May 2013 presentation, Aranca Research
Sector-wise steel consumption FY12
Infrastructure is India‟s largest steel consumer, accounting
for 63 per cent of total consumption in FY11
This is not surprising given the heavy use of steel in
this sector and soaring construction and
infrastructure activity in the country over the past
decade
Engineering and fabrication is the next largest consumer,
with 22 per cent of total consumption
63%
22%
10%
2%
3%
0 Infrastructure
Engineering and
fabrication
Autos
Packaging
Transportation

Source: Aranca Research
Company Products
Tata Steel Ltd Finished steel (non-alloy steel)
SAIL Finished steel (non-alloy steel)
JSW Steel Ltd Hot-rolled coils, strips and sheets
Jindal Steel & Power Ltd Iron and steel
Ispat Industries Ltd Hot-rolled coils, strips and sheets
Welspun-Gujarat Stahl Rohren Ltd Tubes and pipes
Bhushan Steel Ltd Cold-rolled coils, strips and sheets

Source: Ministry of Railways, Aranca Research
Notes: MOUs - Memorandum of Understanding, MT - Million Tonnes
Growing investments
• SAIL has modernised and expanded its integrated steel plants in Bhilai, Bokaro, Rourkela,
Durgapur, Burnpur and Salem
• The company is in the process of expanding its crude steel production capacity to 21.4
MTPA by 2013
• Completed mega expansion of Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited (RINL) to more than double
capacity of plant (from 2.9 MT to 6.3 MT) from 2013-14
Strategic alliances
• International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd, comprising SAIL, RINL, CIL, NTPC and NMDC, has
been set up for acquisition of coal mines overseas
• The consortium of SAIL and National Fertiliser Limited (NFL) has been nominated for
revival of Sindri Unit of the Fertiliser Corporation of India Limited
• RINL, Vishakhapatnam Steel Plant and the Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd
(POWERGRID) signed an MoU to set up a joint venture company to manufacture
transmission line towers and tower parts including R&D of new high-end products
Entry of international
companies
• Attracted by the growth potential of the Indian steel industry, several global steel players
have been planning to enter the market
• National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC) has signed an MoU with Russia‟s
third-largest steelmaker, Severstal, for a greenfield steel plant in Karnataka
• Posco Steel to invest USD12 billion in setting up a 12 MT project in India

Increased emphasis on
technological
innovations
• Indian steel companies have now started benchmarking their facilities and processes
against global standards, to enhance productivity
• These steps are expected to help Indian companies improve raw material and energy
consumption as well as improve compliance with environmental and pollution yardsticks
• Companies are attempting coal gasification and gas-based direct-reduced iron (DRI)
production. Other alternative technologies such as Hlsmelt, Finex and ITmk3 being
adopted to produce hot metal
Source: Aranca Research

Steel integrated plants under
SAIL (Bhilai, Rourkela,
Bokaro, Durgapur and
Burnpur)
Tata Steel‟s largest steel
plant, based in Jamshedpur
RINL steel plant in
Vishakhapatnam
Alloy and special steel
plants under SAIL
(Bhadrawati and Salem)
Source: Company websites, Aranca Research

Policy support
100 per cent FDI in
the steel sector
Encouragement of
sector-based R&D
activities by the
government
Reduced custom
duty and other
favourable
measures
Growing demand in
the construction
industry
Increasing investments
Rising investments
from domestic and
foreign players
Increasing number
of MoUs signed to
boost investment in
steel
Foreign investment
of nearly USD40
billion committed in
the steel sector
Inviting Resulting in
Growing demand in
the automotives
sector
Rising demand for
consumer durables
and capital goods
Growing demand
Note: FDI - Foreign Direct Investment

Projected values of investment in infrastructure
(USD billion)
Investment in infrastructure by the Planning Commission is
expected to expand at a CAGR of 14.5 per cent over FY12–
17
investment to be USD1 trillion in the 12th Five-Year Plan
(2012–17), from USD428 billion in the 11th Plan
This increase in infrastructure investment is set to raise
steel demand by roughly 40 MTPA during FY13–17
Source: Planning Commission, Aranca Research
Notes: MTPA - Million Tonnes Per Annum
97.3
114.1 131.2
149.1
169.0
191.4
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
CAGR: 14.5%

Consumer durables market size (USD billion)
Over FY03-FY11, consumer durables has grown at a CAGR of 12.2 per cent as growth in disposable income resulted rise
in their demand
Capital goods and consumer durables are expected to grow at a 7.5 per cent to 8.8 per cent over 2012-2021
Automotives production expanded at a CAGR of 22.2 per cent over FY09–12
Commercial vehicles are the fastest growing segment with a CAGR of 29.8 per cent over the same period
Over FY12-FY21, the automotive sector is projected to grow at a CAGR of 11.5 per cent to 12.5 per cent
T
otal production of automobiles in India
(million units)
Source: SIAM, JSPL May 2013 presentation, Corporate Catalyst India, Aranca Research
Notes: E - Estimate; FY - Indian Financial Year (April - March)
2.9
3.2
3.5
3.8
4.2
5.2
4.7
6.3
7.3
FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
1.8
0.4
2.4
3.0
0.8
3.1
0.9
5.1
9.7
0.6
1.4
2.4
8.9
11.1
14.2
16.3
21.0
30.2
FY09 FY10 FY11
Passenger vehicles
Three wheelers & two wheelers
FY12 FY16E FY21E
Commercial vehicles
CAGR: 12.2%

National Steel Policy
2012
• In view of the sector‟s changed dynamics, globally as well as domestically, the Ministry of
Steel has initiated the process of drafting a new National Steel Policy to replace the
existing National Steel Policy of 2005
• The government has set up a committee headed by the Steel Secretary to monitor the
formulation of the new National Steel Policy
• Four task forces have been constituted to study, analyses, consult and formulate draft
policy documents on different aspects of the policy
• The current policy draft proposes allotment of captive iron ore mines to producers through
open bidding and putting some mines in the general category
R&D and innovation
• A new scheme, „The scheme for the promotion of R&D in the iron and steel sector‟, has
been approved with budgetary provision of USD24.6 million to initiate and implement the
provisions of the scheme as per the 11th Five-Year Plan
• USD10.7 million had been spent under the scheme up to December 2012
• The development of technology for cold-rolled grain oriented (CRGO) steel sheets and
other value-added products is also included under the policy purview and is allocated
USD6.7 million
Source: Ministry of Steel, Aranca Research

Foreign Direct
Investment
• 100 per cent FDI through the automatic route is allowed in the Indian steel sector
Rise in export duty on
iron ore
• The government hiked the export duty on iron ore to 30 per cent ad valorem on all
varieties of iron ore* (except pellets)
Notes: * - w.e.f. 30th December 2011

• Export duty on iron ore has been increased to 30
per cent ad valorem on all varieties of iron ore
(except pellets), to preserve iron ore resources for
domestic use
As per the government‟s decision, the Government
of India‟s 51 per cent shareholding in Eastern
Investments Company Limited (EIL), under Bird
Group of Companies, was transferred to RINL
•
• New Research and
steel sector have
implementation
Development policy for the
been finalised/adopted for
• New techno-economic benchmarks have been
evolved on international patterns to improve
performance of steel PSUs; implementation is
being monitored closely
• Under the Ministry, the Joint Plant Committee
(JPC) studied 300 districts, 1,500 villages, 4,500
manufactures and 8,000 retailers spread over
India‟s 28 states and 7 union territories to assess
steel demand in the rural areas and examine the
potential to increase steel consumption levels
The Ministry of Steel set up the Steel Innovation
Council to promote innovative ideas in the steel
sector
The New National Steel Policy for the forthcoming
years is under finalisation
In April 2013, the Ministry of Steel signed a Letter
of Intent (LoI) with the Tanzanian Government to
strengthen cooperation in steel and mining
activities
•
•
•
Notes: W.E.F - With Effect From 30th December, 2011

Source: Formal approvals granted in the Board of Approvals after the SEZ rules coming into force,”
Special Economic Zones in India website, www.sezindia.nic.in
Developer Location Product
Viraj Profiles Ltd Thane, Maharashtra Stainless steel engineering
products
Jindal Steel Ltd Kalinganagar Stainless steel
SAIL Salem SEZ Pvt Ltd Salem, Tamil Nadu Steel
Orissa Industrial Infrastructure
Development Corporation
Jajpur, Orissa Metallurgical-based engineering
and ancillary/downstream industry

Source: Thomson ONE Banker, “Fact Sheet On Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)”, Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion
M&A scenario – details
Period: 1 January 2012 to 21 June 2013
Deal type Number of deals Largest deal (USD million)
Inbound 2 -
Outbound 1 -
Domestic 3 232.6
Cumulative FDI inflows
Period: April 2000 to March 2013
Sector
Metallurgical industries USD7.5 billion
Per cent of total FDI
inflow
3.9

Source: Ministry of Steel, Annual Report 2011-12; Note: MTPA - Million Tonnes Per Annum, * - Estimated figures
State MoUs signed (2011) Capacity addition (MTPA)
Orissa 63 81.2
Jharkhand 49 105.1
Chhattisgarh 76 60.0
West Bengal 16 39.4
Karnataka 57 173.0
Andhra Pradesh 18 11.8
Other states 22 18.2*
Total 301 488.6
Capacity addition plans 2012
Company Plans
SAIL SAIL plans to invest USD27.3 billion in increasing capacity from 21.4 MTPA to 45 MTPA. In
its recent expansion plan, the company modernised and expanded its integrated steel
plants at Bhilai, Bokaro, Rourkela, Durgapur, Burnpur and a special plant at Salem
NMDC NMDC is setting up a greenfield integrated steel plant of 3 MTPA capacity in Nagarnar,
Chhattisgarh at an estimated cost of about USD3.2 billion

Jindal Steel and Power Limited
Incorporated in 1979, Jindal Steel and Power Limited (JSPL)
is an integrated steel producer and the largest coal-based
sponge iron manufacturer in the world. The company has an
installed steel production capacity of 3 MTPA. JSPL is
engaged in manufacturing long products and is specialised
in producing long rails for railways and large sized H-beams
as well as columns for the infrastructure and construction
sector
JSPL also has significant presence across the mining, power
generation and infrastructure sectors
• Achievements:
• 2011 – Ranked third in the Metals category of
Business World‟s Most Respected Companies
Survey, 2011
• 2010 – Rated the World‟s Second-Largest Value
Creator by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
and the World‟s Largest Value Creator in the
Mining and Materials category
Projected crude steel capacity in the 12th Plan
(million tonnes)
Source: Company website (www.jindalsteelpower.com),
Planning Commission, Aranca Research
3.0 3.0
4.5
7.0
8.0
10.0
11.5
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
CAGR: 25.1%

Financial growth (USD million)
Sale of steel (million tonnes)
0.3 0.5
0.2
0.7
1.0
1.2
1.6
1.9
0.8
1.4 1.6
2.0
2.3
2.8
2.8
3.8
Semi steel products
FY12
Pellets
Finished steel products
671
816
1,803
2,287
3,315
3,007
103
197
431 438 395
818 721
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
Gross revenue PBIDT
Source: Company website (www.jindalsteelpower.com)
Notes: Company clubs iron and steel segment „s performance; PBIDT (Profit Before Interest, Depreciation and Tax)

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2002 2006 2010 2012
Long track rails
Hot-rolled parallel
flange beams
Column sections
Plate and coils
Wire rods
Organic growth
through capacity
additions
Foray into the oil &
gas and cement
sectors as a part of
diversification
1991
Commenced
operations
FY08
ISO
9001:2008
accreditation
FY 13–14
Steel capacity to
rise from
3.5MTPA to
7.0MTPA
The iron and steel
segment continues
to be a major
contributor (~75%)
Strong diversified
customer base of
2,758 customers
TMT Re-bars
Expansion in
international
markets

Bhushan Steel Limited
Established in 1983, Bhushan Steel Limited (BSL) is the
third-largest secondary steel producer in India. The company
has an existing steel production capacity of 2.5 MTPA. It
primarily manufactures flat steel products for the automobile
industry
Products – Cold-rolled closed annealed coils, galvanised
coils and sheets, high tensile steel strapping, colour coated
coils, galume sheets and coils, hardened and tempered steel
strips, billets, sponge iron, precision tubes and wire rods
• Milestones:
• 2004 – Commissioned secondary steel production at
Khapoli, Maharashtra
• 2006 – Commissioned primary steel production at
Meramandali, Odisha
• 2006 – Commissioned secondary steel production at
Sahibabad, Uttar Pradesh
(million tonnes)
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Source: Company website (www.bhushansteel.com),
4.5
2.2
2.5

Production of steel (million tonnes)
Source: Company website (www.bhushansteel.com), Aranca Research
Notes: NPAT - Net Profit After Tax
1.1
2,251
2.1
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 9MFY13
Gross revenue NPAT
1.8
1.6
1.2
1.0
1,662 1,541
1,161 1,178 1,266 11
6
17
8
928 10
5
693
35 69 92 221 213

1989
Secondary
steel
production in
UP
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2002 2006 2010 2012
Cold-rolled
Wheel, tyre and
and pipes
axle plant (railways)
Alloy steel
Organic growth in
steel and flat
products
FY06
Primary steel
production in
Odisha
Galvanised
Color coated tiles
Iro
S
npm
on
ag
ke
inig
ro
a
n
nd
castings
Capacity
expansion
(0.9 MT to 2.5 MT)
Partnership with
Japanese steel
producer,
Sumitomo
FY12
USD2.5 billion
turnover
Alloy billets
Other
developed products
Technological
upgradation and
further capacity
addition
Strong diversified
customer base of
3,300 customers

T
ata Steel Limited
Established in 1907 by the visionary founder – JN Tata, Tata
Steel is among the top ten global steel companies with an
annual crude steel capacity of over 28 MTPA
The company caters to sectors such as automotive,
construction, consumer goods, engineering, packaging,
energy & power, ship building, rail and defense & security
• Milestones:
• 2009 – Tata Ryerson and HMPCL merge with Tata
Steel
• 2007 – Tata Steel and Corus were integrated at
USD12 billion, making Tata Steel one of the top ten
global steel producers
(million tonnes)
Source: Company website (www.tatasteel.com),
6.8
7.6
9.2
11.0
15.1
17.5
20.0
CAGR: 19.7%

Production and sales of steel division (million tonnes)
Source: Company website (www.tatasteel.com), Aranca Research
Notes: NPAT - Net Profit After Tax
4.6 4.4 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.8 5.4
6.4 6.7 6.4 7.0 6.6
7.9 7.5
5.2
6.2
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
Production Sales
0.8
0.9 1.2 1.1 1.1
1.5 1.4
3.9
4.5
5.6 5.9 5.8
7.2 7.1
NPAT Gross revenue

1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Company website (www.tatasteel.com), Aranca Research, * - Revenues from Indian operations
Note: M&A - Mergers and Acquisitions
1912 1995 1996
Blast furnace
Organic growth in
steel
Capacity
expansion
(3 MT)
M&A
(Tata-Corus)
Developed products
Technological
upgradation
1912
Production
capacity (1.6
lakh tonnes)
Diversification
(coal injection
unit)
FY06
USD3,625
million
turnover
FY13
USD7.0
billion
turnover*
Pig iron and
steel ingots
Wheel, tyre and
axle plant (railways)
Alloy steel
Iron making and
castings
Announced plans
to merge Tata
Metaliks Ltd and
Tata Metaliks
Kuboto Pipes Ltd
with itself in April
2013

JSW Steel
Established in 1994, JSW Steel Ltd manufactures iron and
steel products in India and abroad
Products – Hot-rolled coils, plates and sheets; cold-rolled
coils and sheets; galvanised sheets and coils; pre-painted
galvanised coils, sheets and galvanised sheets
• Achievements:
• 2011 – National Sustainability Award by the Indian
Institute of Metals
• 2009 – Gold Award in the Metal and Mining sector
• 2008 – National Energy Management Award
instituted by CII
(million tonnes)
Source: Company website (www.jsw.in),
11.1
13.23
14.3 14.3 14.3
17.6
18.4
CAGR: 8.8%

Product group-wise sales (million tonnes)
Source: Company website (www.jsw.in)
0.3
4.7
1.1
0.4
5.9
1.5 1.71
0.3
6.9
Semis Rolled Flats
FY11 FY12
Rolled Longs
FY13
1,417 1,937
2,631
3,162
4,053
5,228
7,221 7,137
178 269 360
96
421 419 339 332
NPAT
FY12 FY13
Gross revenue

Notes: JV - Joint Venture, TMT - Thermo Mechanically Treated, MML - Mysore Minerals Limited, MTPA - Million Tonnes Per Annum
Production
capacity
(1.25 MTPA)
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013
FY 14
Saleablesteel
sales to rea
c
h
9.75 million
tonnes
Special steel bars
Galvanised
product
TMT Re-bars
Wire rods
Cold-rolled
Hot-rolled
Capacity
addition 7.8 MT
Organic growth
and integration
JV formed to
explore, develop &
mine iron ore with
MML
1994
ISO
accreditations
1994
FY06
USD1,417
million
turnover
FY 13
USD7.1
billion
turnover

Note: Capex – Capital Expenditure
Automotive
• The automotives
industry is forecasted
to grow in size by
USD122–159 billion
by 2016
• With
capacity
the
increasing
addition in
automotive
industry, demand for
steel from the sector
is expected to be
robust
Capital goods
• The capital goods
sector accounts for
11 per cent of steel
consumption, and
has the
increase
potential to
in tonnage
and market share
• Corporate India‟s
capex is expected to
grow and generate
greater demand for
steel
Infrastructure
• The government aims
to increase
infrastructure
spending from 8.4
per cent of GDP in
FY11 to 10.7 per cent
by FY17
• Due to such a huge
investment
infrastructure
in
the
demand for long steel
products would
increase in the years
ahead
Airports
• More and more
modern and private
airports are expected
to be set up
• Development of Tier-
II city airports would
sustain consumption
growth
• Estimated
consumption
steel
in
airport building is
likely to grow more
than 20 per cent over
next few years

Source: Planning Commission, Aranca Research
Railways
• The
freight
dedicated rail
corridor
network
(DRFC)
expansion would be
enhanced in future
• Gauge conversion,
setting up of new lines
and
would
demand
electrification
drive steel
Oil and gas
• The liquid fuel
transportation pipeline
network is likely to
grow from the present
16,800 km to 22,000
km in 2014
• This would lead to an
increase in demand of
steel tubes and pipes,
providing a lucrative
opportunity to the
steel industry
Power
• The government aims
to add 71,000–
1,07,500 MW (Mega
Watt) of capacity
during the 12th Five-
Year Plan
• Both generation and
transmission
capacities would be
enhanced, thereby
raising steel demand
from the sector
Rural India
• Rural India,
accounting for 70 per
cent of Indian
population has low
per capita steel
which
consumption
provides huge scope
for growth
• Policies like Bharat
Nirman and Rajiv
Gandhi Awaaz Yojna
are driving
demand
construction
rural India
growing
for
steel in

Current state of Global Steel Industry


2000=100
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Steed Demand vs Capacity (2000=100)
Apparent steel use, crude steel equivalent Capacity, crude steel
Steel Capacity Outgrows Demand Growth
 During 2000~2012, global crude steel capacity ∆ 1,013 Mt to reach
2,063 Mt, whereas crude steel production ∆ 683 MT to 1,532 Mt
 Chinese capacity ∆ 771Mt to 921 Mt, production ∆ 602 Mt to 731 Mt
 After the global economic crisis, capacity expansion momentum slows,
but the emerging economies continue to seek expansion

Return of Overcapacity
 While world steel demand continues to grow,
trends down
 No easy solutions to overcapacity in sight
capacity utilization ratio
Jun-08
92.7%
60%
Dec-08
59.9%
50%
Apr-10
84.5%
Aug-10
74.2%
Apr-11
83.4%
Dec-12
71.5%
Sep-13
79.3%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
World crude steel capacity utilisation

value chain profit pool split evolution
54 23 125 156 230
8 15
 Value chain profits has been shifting away from the steel industry
 Volatility and uncertainty in raw materials prices since departure from
the benchmarking pricing system
Raw Materials Side Adds to Adversity
81
78
61
35
26
27
11
7
22
22 28
32
135
1995 2000
Source: McKinsey & Company
2005 10 2011 2017
100%=
Iron ore
Steel
making
(HRC)
Coking
coal
17
44
46
42

Steel Industry Performances
Steel industry stocks vs Dow Jones
Index 2005=100
Steel vs Raw materials prices
Index 2005=100

1 219
1 219
1 141
1 300
1 403 1 430
1 475 1 523
7.0
0.0
-6.4
14.0
7.9
2.0
3.1 3.3
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
Mt
1 600
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2007
*) 2014 as % of 2007
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
%
Mt y-o-y % growth
125.0*
Steel Demand Forecasts for 2013-14
Apparent Steel Use, finished steel (SRO October 2013)

Demand Forecasts for selected countries
2014 as %
of 2007
Mt %
2012 2013 2014 12/11 13/12 14/13
World 1,430.3 1,475.1 1,523.2 2.0 3.1 3.3 125.0
United States 96.2 96.9 99.8 7.8 0.7 3.0 92.2
European Union (27) 140.2 134.9 137.8 -9.5 -3.8 2.1 69.1
Japan 63.9 64.0 63.0 -0.2 0.1 -1.6 77.6
China 660.1 699.7 720.7 2.9 6.0 3.0 172.2
India 71.6 74.0 78.2 2.6 3.4 5.6 151.8
Brazil 25.2 26.0 27.0 0.6 3.2 3.8 122.3
ASEAN (5) 54.8 57.3 60.4 12.8 4.6 5.4 149.7
MENA 63.2 64.3 69.0 2.2 1.7 7.3 127.2
Developed Economies 390.2 384.1 390.5 -1.7 -1.6 1.7 82.4
Emerging & Developing
Economies excl China
380.0 391.4 412.1 4.2 3.0 5.3 126.0
World excl. China 770.2 775.4 802.6 1.1 0.7 3.5 100.3

Key Trends in Post-Crisis Period Steel Demand
 Multi-speed recovery continues driven by emerging economies, but
weakening growth in the emerging world
 Eurozone stabilizes and finally positive growth expected in 2014
 China moves into slower growth phase
 Key emerging economies struggling with structural issues
Multi-Speed Recovery of Steel Demand
160
140
120
100
80
60
180
2007 2008 2009 2010 201
1 2012 2013 2014
2007=100
World China Developed Economies Em. & Dev
. Economies excl. China

Emerging & Developing Economies
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Developed Economies China
Regional Share in World Steel Demand
41.5% 58.5%
16.4%
53.9%
20.5% 46.1%
51.5%
23.3% 48.5%
47.8%
27.4% 52.2%
47.0%
28.3% 53.0%
41.7%
33.3% 58.3%
41.6%
11
33.1% 58.4%

China Entering a New Phase of Development
After soft landing, renewed focus on rebalancing of the economy
Less steel intensive growth to come, implying steel demand growth will
underperform GDP growth
Future focus will be on capacity closures, environmental performance
and upgrading
Growth trend of China’s steel use Steel intensity (ASU/GDP)

0
200
400
600
1 000
1 200
1 400
0 10 20 30 40
GDP per capita, 2005 PPP$, thousands USD
50
S-Curve of differentcountries
Thailand
United States
China
Japan
Indonesia
South Korea
India
ASU
per
capita
,
ASU,
crude
steel
equivalent
per
capita,
kg
Japan
United States
Economic Growth and Steel Demand
40 57
127
222
305
279
488 506
220
Africa India Brazil Middle
East
United EU (27) China
States
Japan World
Per Capita SteelUse
finished steel, kg, 2012

How Far Will Chinese Steel Demand Grow?
China provincial steel use per capita (2011, kg/per, crude steel equiv )
China (2012) US (1973) Japan (1973)
Positive Negative
Further room for urbanization and
Industrialization
Low level of development in the West
Condensed growth, high share of
investment in GDP
Environmental regulations, resource
constraints
Manufacturing relocation out of China
Speed and mode of development in the West

Contribution to Apparent Steel Demand Growth( ∆ Mt)
1 800
1 600
1 400
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
RoW
China
former USSR
US, EU, Japan
CAGR 1950-1975
5.0%
CAGR 1975-2000
1.1%
CAGR 2000-2007
6.6%
Evolution of Steel Demand (1950-2014,crudesteelequiv)
Mt
CAGR 2007-2014
3.1%
End of the China Effect, Next Growth Engine?
World Developed China Other Emerging
1992-2000 142.6 84.1 51.1 7.4
2000-2007 480.3 74.2 297.8 108.4
2007-2014 320.2 -85.5 314.8 90.9

Developing World: Strong Fundamentals
Population
(million)
2012 2020
Urbanisation
(%)
2010 2020
GDP per capita,
(PPP$)
2012 2020
Steel Use/
capita(Kg)
2012
Mexico
Turkey
Brazil
Thailand
China
Indonesia
India
Vietnam
116 126 77.8 80.5 14.4 17.3 173
75 81 70.5 78.6 14.1 17.9 382
198 210 84.3 86.8 11.0 13.8 127
70 72 33.7 38.0 9.4 12.9 234
1 354 1 388 49.2 61.0 9.0 15.3 488
245 263 49.9 57.2 4.7 6.7 51
1 258 1 387 30.9 34.8 3.7 5.7 57
90 96 30.4 36.9 3.4 5.1 122

 Energy use reduction efforts in developed world already at theoretical limit
and limited progress in Break-Through technologies. Pressure on costs
and also negative impact on steel demand growth
 However. steel has been successful in providing solutions to the
sustainability - lighter vehicles, renewable energy, etc …
Energy Intensity of steel production
(NAmerica+Japan +EU27)
Environmental Challenges
Energy intensity of iron and steel
production (GJ/t of crude steel)

6 : 1
1.HH = households; CTS = commerce, trade, and service 2. Geothermal, biomass, hydro 3. CO2 expenditure for other materials not examined;
values are rounded 4. Ratio relates exclusively to the emissions
Source: BCG analysis
 Innovative use of steel saves six times as much CO2 as is caused by
the production of the steel → LCAapproach
Steel as Solution to Sustainable Future
Net CO2 reduction potential
Emissions in the
steel production3
1.9
2.1
30
Mt
5 10
0
9.2
1.0
11.2
5.0
14.2
29.5
9 10 11
Mt
0 1
1.0
0.9
8.4
0.7
0.1
0.03
0.4
<0.1
Case study
1.3 : 1
14 : 1
1.1 : 1
Efficient fossil fuel PPs
Wind power plants
Other renewables2
Efficient transformers
Efficient e-motors
Weight reduction cars
Weight reduction trucks
Combined heat/power
Energy
industry
Traffic
HH, ind.,
CTS1
Ratio between CO2
reduction/emission4
3 : 1
~ 400 : 1
32 : 1
9 : 1
~ 200 : 1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Long Term View on Steel Demand
Mt
3 000
Years
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Mt
589
640
713
719
773
743
846
1 139
1 404
2012 1 542
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Long T
erm Evolution of World Steel Demand
*apparent steel use, crude steel equivalent
 Global steel demand could reach 2.2~3.0 billion in 2050

Conclusion
 Despite current difficulties, future scenarios for the steel industry have
optimistic starting point: Urbanization and population growth will support
industry growth for considerable time
 Surplus capacity in the industry will be difficult to reduce quickly, but can
be absorbed in long term
 Steel industry will continue to provide the basis for sustainability of the
modern society through innovation
 But the industry is facing formidable challenges ahead
 Changing position in value chain through expanding product mix,
development of new applications becomes crucial for steel industry
 Sustainable development and, in particular, Life Cycle Assessment
focus provides interesting challenges to the steel industry

Technological Developments in Iron and
Steel Industry
 Emerging Energy-efficiency and Carbon Dioxide Emissions-reduction technologies
for the Iron and Steel Industry
Iron and steel manufacturing is among the most energy-intensive industries and accounts for the largest share,
approximately 27 percent, of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the manufacturing sector. The ongoing
increase in world steel demand means that this industry’s energy use and CO2 emissions continue to grow, so there is
significant incentive to develop, commercialize and adopt emerging energy-efficiency and CO2 emissions-reduction
technologies for steel production. Although studies from around the world have identified a wide range of energy-
efficiency technologies applicable to the steel industry that have already been commercialized, information is limited
and/or scattered regarding emerging or advanced energy efficiency and low-carbon technologies that are not yet
commercialized. This report consolidates available information on 56 emerging iron and steel industry technologies,
with the intent of providing a well-structured database of information on these technologies for engineers, researchers,
investors, steel companies, policy makers, and other interested parties. For each technology included, we provide
information on energy savings and environmental and other benefits, costs, and commercialization status; we also
identify references for more information.

Category of steel:
Carbon Steels- contain trace amounts of alloying elements and account for
90% of total steel production
Low Carbon Steels/Mild Steels contain up to 0.3% carbon
Medium Carbon Steels contain 0.3 – 0.6% carbon
High Carbon Steels contain more than 0.6% carbon
Alloy Steels- contain alloying elements (e.g. manganese,
silicon, nickel, titanium, copper, chromium and aluminum)
Stainless Steels- contain between 10-20% chromium
Tool Steels- contain tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt and vanadium in varying
quantities

3
No. Report Section/Technology Name Commercialization status
3.1. Emerging Agglomeration Technologies
1 3.1.1. Use of Biomass in the Sintering Process Demonstration
3.2. Emerging Coke-making Technologies
2 3.2.1. Single-chamber-system Coking Reactors Demonstration
3 3.2.2. Battery Under-firing with Advance Diagnostics and Control Development
3.3. Emerging Technologies for Ironmaking Using Blast Furnace
4 3.3.1. Hot Oxygen Injection Pilot
5 3.3.2. Blast Furnace Optimization by Using Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling Demonstration
6 3.3.3. Blast Furnace Optimization by Using X-ray Diffraction Analytical Technique Demonstration
7 3.3.4. Blast Furnace Heat Recuperation Demonstration
8 3.3.5. Plasma Blast Furnace Development
9 3.3.6. Blast Furnace Slag Heat Recovery Pilot/ Development
10 3.4.7. Charging Carbon Composite Agglomerates Demonstration
3.4. Alternative Ironmaking Technologies
11 3.4.1. COREX® Process Commercial with very low adoption rate
12 3.4.2. FINEX® Process Commercial with very low adoption rate
13 3.4.3. Tecnored Pilot
14 3.4.4. ITmk3 Ironmaking Process Demonstration
15 3.4.5. Paired Straight Hearth Furnace Development
16 3.4.6. Coal-Based HYL Process- A Syngas based DRI Plant Commercial with very low adoption rate
17 3.4.7. Coal-Based MIDREX Process Demonstration
18 3.4.8. Fine Ore Reduction in the Circulating Fluidized Bed (Circored® and Circofer®) Demonstration/Pilot
19 3.4.9. Cyclone Converter Furnace Pilot
20 3.4.10. Producing Iron by Electrolysis of Iron Ore (Molten Oxide Electrolysis) Research/Development
21 3.4.11. Suspension Hydrogen Reduction of Iron Oxide Concentrate Research/Development
22 3.4.12. Ironmaking using Biomass and Waste Oxides Research
3.5. Emerging Technologies for Steelmaking Shops
23 3.5.1. Sensible Heat Recovery from Electric Arc Furnace Off Gases Commercial with very low adoption rate/ Pilot
24 3.5.2. Electrochemical Removal of Zinc from Steel Scrap Demonstration
25 3.5.3. Continuous Horizontal Sidewall Scrap Charging Pilot
26 3.5.4. New Scrap-Based Steelmaking Process Predominantly Using Primary Energy Development
27 3.5.5. ECOARCTM
Demonstration
28 3.5.6. Optimization of Basic Oxygen Furnace and Electric Arc Furnace Post Combustion Using Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling Pilot
29 3.5.7. Improving the Energy Efficiency of Electric Arc Furnaces through Laser- Pilot
1/17/2014
11:29:09 AM
Prepared by Gsdhir

4
No. Report Section/Technology Name Commercialization status
based Optimization of Post Combustion
30 3.5.8. Model-based Steel Temperature Measurement for Electric Arc Furnaces Development
31 3.5.9. In-Situ Real-Time Measurement of Melt Constituents Development
32 3.9.10. Injection of plastic waste in Blast Furnaces Demonstration
33 3.9.11. Injection of Plastic Waste in the Electric Arc Furnace Pilot
34 3.9.12. Use of Waste Tires in EAF Commercial with very low adoption rate
35 3.6.4. Continuous Steelmaking for Electric Arc Furnace Research
3.6. Emerging Casting Technologies
36 3.6.1. Near-net-shape Casting/Strip Casting Commercial with very low adoption rate
37 3.6.2. Continuous Temperature Monitoring and Control in Continuous Casting Development
3.7. Emerging Rolling and Finishing Technologies
38 3.7.1. High-Temperature Membrane Module for Oxygen Enrichment of Combustion Air for Fuel-Fired Industrial Furnaces Pilot
39 3.7.2. Next-generation System for Scale-Free Steel Reheating Research
40 3.7.3. Thermochemical Recuperation for Steel Reheating Furnaces Research
41 3.7.4. Hot Strip Mill Model Commercial with very low adoption rate
42 3.7.5. Innovative Reheating Furnace Management Using a Continuous Burn-Out Measuring System Pilot
43 3.7.6. Oxygen-rich Furnace System for reduced CO2 and NOx emissions Development
44 3.6.2. HotEye® Steel Surface Inspection System Commercial with very low adoption rate/
Development
45 3.7.7. NOx Emission Reduction by Oscillating Combustion Pilot
3.8. Emerging Recycling and Waste Reduction Technologies
46 3.8.1. Recycling Basic Oxygen Furnace Slag Development
47 3.8.2. Rotary Hearth Furnace Dust Recycling System Demonstration
48 3.8.3. Recycling of Stainless Steel Dust by Injection into Electric Arc Furnace Pilot
49 3.8.4. Regeneration of Hydrochloric Acid Pickling Liquor Pilot
50 3.8.5. Recycling of Waste Oxides in Steelmaking Furnace Pilot
3.9. Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies for the Iron and Steel industry
51 3.9.1. Top-gas Recycling in Blast Furnaces with Carbon Capture and Storage Pilot
52 3.9.2. Advanced Direct Reduction with Carbon Capture and Storage (ULCORED) Development
53 3.9.3. HIsarna with Carbon Capture and Storage Pilot
54 3.9.4. Post-combustion Carbon Capture Using Chemical Absorption Technologies Development
55 3.9.5. Geological Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide Using Basic Oxygen Furnace and Electric Arc Furnace Slag Research
56 3.9.6. Integrating Steel Production with Mineral Sequestration Research
1/17/2014
11:29:09 AM
Prepared by Gsdhir

THANK YOU

challengesfuturescenarioofsteelindustry-1-140117132902-phpapp01.pdf

More Related Content

Similar to challengesfuturescenarioofsteelindustry-1-140117132902-phpapp01.pdf

Recently uploaded

challengesfuturescenarioofsteelindustry-1-140117132902-phpapp01.pdf