The document discusses economic growth trends and global cost inflation in India over three phases from 1950-2008. It finds that growth has accelerated in the past five years 2003-2008, led by a doubling of investment growth. Private investment has been the main driver while consumption growth has remained robust. The savings rate has also increased in line with investment. Manufacturing, construction, and telecommunications have been the major sectoral drivers. Inflation has increased due to global supply shocks, with food and edible oil prices rising over 60% and iron ore and oil prices also experiencing large increases. This global cost push has contributed significantly to rising inflation in India.
CEA State of the Economy August 2008 (1).pptamitavadey20
Economic reforms led to more private sector participation, an expansion in the production of consumer goods and both domestic and foreign competition. Services.
CEA State of the Economy August 2008 (1).pptamitavadey20
Economic reforms led to more private sector participation, an expansion in the production of consumer goods and both domestic and foreign competition. Services.
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www.lyesboudiaf.com #lyesboudiaf
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If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
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Dr Anthony Leddin, University of Limerick and Dr Paul Egan, University of St Andrews, Scotland, Ireland’s national wage agreements & macroeconomic performance: 1988 - 2008 presented at the 6th Annual NERI Labour Market Conference in association with the Whitaker Institute, NUI Galway, 22nd May, 2018.
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If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
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USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
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Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
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Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
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USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
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how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network
#pi coins
#money
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
Latino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino CaucusDanay Escanaverino
Unlock the potential of Latino Buying Power with this in-depth SlideShare presentation. Explore how the Latino consumer market is transforming the American economy, driven by their significant buying power, entrepreneurial contributions, and growing influence across various sectors.
**Key Sections Covered:**
1. **Economic Impact:** Understand the profound economic impact of Latino consumers on the U.S. economy. Discover how their increasing purchasing power is fueling growth in key industries and contributing to national economic prosperity.
2. **Buying Power:** Dive into detailed analyses of Latino buying power, including its growth trends, key drivers, and projections for the future. Learn how this influential group’s spending habits are shaping market dynamics and creating opportunities for businesses.
3. **Entrepreneurial Contributions:** Explore the entrepreneurial spirit within the Latino community. Examine how Latino-owned businesses are thriving and contributing to job creation, innovation, and economic diversification.
4. **Workforce Statistics:** Gain insights into the role of Latino workers in the American labor market. Review statistics on employment rates, occupational distribution, and the economic contributions of Latino professionals across various industries.
5. **Media Consumption:** Understand the media consumption habits of Latino audiences. Discover their preferences for digital platforms, television, radio, and social media. Learn how these consumption patterns are influencing advertising strategies and media content.
6. **Education:** Examine the educational achievements and challenges within the Latino community. Review statistics on enrollment, graduation rates, and fields of study. Understand the implications of education on economic mobility and workforce readiness.
7. **Home Ownership:** Explore trends in Latino home ownership. Understand the factors driving home buying decisions, the challenges faced by Latino homeowners, and the impact of home ownership on community stability and economic growth.
This SlideShare provides valuable insights for marketers, business owners, policymakers, and anyone interested in the economic influence of the Latino community. By understanding the various facets of Latino buying power, you can effectively engage with this dynamic and growing market segment.
Equip yourself with the knowledge to leverage Latino buying power, tap into their entrepreneurial spirit, and connect with their unique cultural and consumer preferences. Drive your business success by embracing the economic potential of Latino consumers.
**Keywords:** Latino buying power, economic impact, entrepreneurial contributions, workforce statistics, media consumption, education, home ownership, Latino market, Hispanic buying power, Latino purchasing power.
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
2. INTRODUCTION
• Trends vs. Cycles: Tendencies
– Short Term Cyclical fluctuations (Project) => Trend
– Classify every uptrend as cyclical (‘overheating’)
• Long Term Trends
• Medium Term Performance: 2003-04 to 2007-08
• Short Term: Inflation – Global cost push
• Role of Policy reform:
– Sustaining growth
– Raising productivity/ offsetting cost increases
02 August 2008 General: AV 2
3. Economic Growth Perspective
• Phase I: 1950-1 to 1979-80
– Two sub-phases (50to 65; 66 to 79)
• Phase II: 1980-81 to 1993-4
– Start: Policy regime change
– End (a) Crises year(1990-91). (b) Reform initiation
1991-2 (c) Adjustment/recovery (1992-3 to 1993-4)
• Phase III: 1994-5 to ?
– 1994-95: Statistical significant growth break
– Rising trend growth
02 August 2008 General: AV 3
4. Figure 1: Three Phases of Growth
(Phase III Result of radical reform)
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
GdpmpGr GdpGrTrend GdpTndHpf
02 August 2008 General: AV 4
5. Recent Developments:
Past five years ( 2003-4 to 2007-8)
• Growth Acceleration
– GDP
– Average Income / Per capita GDPmp (PcGdp)
– Avg. Private Consumption (PvtCons)
• Aggregate Growth drivers
– Supply side
– Demand Side
• Sector drivers of growth
02 August 2008 General: AV 5
6. Growth acceleration:
( 2003-4 to 2007-8)
• In the next three figures:-
• Cyclical movement around Rising trend
– HP filtered trend
• GDPmp: Avg. growth of 8.9%
• Per Capita gdp growth has doubled
– To 7.3% (from 3.7% in 1980-1991)
– Average income will double in ten years
• Avg. Private Consumption Gr rt: Almost doubled
02 August 2008 General: AV 6
8. Fig 3: Per Capita Income
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
1992-3
1993-4
1994-5
1995-6
1996-7
1997-8
1998-9
1999-00
2000-1
2001-2
2002-3
2003-4
2004-5
2005-6
2006-7
2007-8
G
r
o
w
t
h
r
a
t
e
(
%
) PerCapita Income (PcGdpmp)
PcGdp
PcGma5y
02 August 2008 General: AV 8
9. Fig 4: Per Capita Consumption
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1992-3
1993-4
1994-5
1995-6
1996-7
1997-8
1998-9
1999-00
2000-1
2001-2
2002-3
2003-4
2004-5
2005-6
2006-7
2007-8
G
r
o
w
t
h
r
a
t
e
(
%
)
Per Capita Consumption
PcPfce Linear (PcPfce)
02 August 2008 General: AV 9
10. Aggregate Demand Growth Dynamics:
Investment Led growth
• Growth of Demand
– Investment growth rate doubled
– Pvt consumption & imports accelerated
– Govt. Consumption-slowed
• Role of private Consumption important but
declined below that of Investment for first time
• External : Short period of positive contribution
(low oil prices) over
• Govt Consumption: Lower contribution
02 August 2008 General: AV 10
11. Fig 6: Investment Led
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Gdcf
-
GDP
ratio
&
moving
avg
(%)
Gdcf/Gdp MaGdcf/gdp
02 August 2008 General: AV 11
14. Supply Side: Investment & Savings
• Investment growth led by
– Fixed investment i.e. not inventory build up
– Private Investment i.e. Profitable
• Increase in productive capacity of the
economy
• Savings rate also rose: Private & Public sectors
• Saving rises with income/investment
– Lag during sharp acceleration
02 August 2008 General: AV 14
15. Investment: Total, Fixed & Private (ratio to GDP)
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2001-2
2002-3
2003-4
2004-5
2005-6@
2006-7*
2007-8
Investment-
Ratios
(%
of
GDP)
GCF/GDP GFCF/GDP IKpvt/Gdp
02 August 2008 General: AV 15
16. Supply Side: Savings
• Savings rate also rose by 9.8% (2003-4 to 2007-8)
– Avg. 33.3% of GDP from 23.6% in previous 5 yrs
• Private and Public
– Increment (4 yrs) 5.1% & 3.4% respectively
– Contributed(60:40)
• Saving Rate: 36.1% of GDP in 2007-8
• Maintenance of Investment and Saving Rate at
2007-8 levels enough to give average growth 0f
around 9%
– Possible with deceleration in gr of profits, saving &
investment to 9%.
02 August 2008 General: AV 16
17. FDI : Inward and outward
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
F
D
I
(
U
S
$
b
i
l
l
i
o
n
)
FDI Inbound FDI Outbound
02 August 2008 General: AV 17
21. Sector Drivers of Growth
• Acceleration in Value Added: Increase in growth
rate
– Highest for Manufacturing and construction
– Followed by storage & agriculture.
• Investment Growth: Manufacturing 30.5% per
year
• Capital stock (end 2007-8 over end 2002-3).
– Construction(1.92 times)
– Manufacturing (1.75 times),
– rade, Hotels & Restaurants (1.62 times).
02 August 2008 General: AV 21
22. Efficiency of Investment
• .
02 August 2008 General: AV 22
1992-3 to 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2003-4 to Change
ICOR 2002-3 (act) (act) (rev) (est) 2007-8
Manufacturing 11.1 8.6 9.5 10.5 8.3 9.2 -1.9
Construction
1.5 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.2 -0.4
Telecommunication
2.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 -1.7
23. Summary: Medium term gr trend
Growth has accelerated in last five years
While Consumption growth remained robust,
the acceleration was Investment led
External sector was a drag on demand because
of oil (and other) price increases
Private investment particularly corporate is
leading investment and growth
Domestic Saving rate has increased inline with
I
Telecom, Construction, Manufacturing were
02 August 2008 General: AV 23
24. INFLATION: Global effects
– Kemal Dervis Exim lecture(18/3/08): Global Cost push
• Global Commodity Price Shock
– All commodity index
– Food price Index
• Edible oil (Palm): Net Importer
• Effect on India: Primary food & edible oils
– Iron Ore: Net exporter
– Mineral Oil: Net Importer
• Impact on Indian Inflation
• Comparison: India(Wpi), USA(Pppi), UK(Ppi
02 August 2008 General: AV 24
31. Acceleration in Inflation during 2008 H1 over 2007 H1:
Contribution of different commodities
• WPI Inflation during H1 2007 (i.e. from
December 2006 end to June 2007 end) was
2.7%.
• Inflation during H1 2008 (i.e. from December
2007 end to June 2008 end) was 9.9%(est).
• Of the 7.2% increase in inflation this year,
2/3rd was due to 3 sets of commodities:
– Edible oils (including) oils seeds and oil cakes)
– Iron and Steel (including iron ore)
02 August 2008 General: AV 31
32. Inflation in India (WPI) and
USA(PPI)
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2007.01
2007.02
2007.03
2007.04
2007.05
2007.06
2007.07
2007.08
2007.09
2007.10
2007.11
2007.12
2008.01
2008.02
2008.03
2008.04
2008.05
2008.06
IndiaWpi UsaPpi
02 August 2008 General: AV 32
33. Inflation: India-WPI Manf, UK-PPI
Manf, USA PPI Ind
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2007.01
2007.02
2007.03
2007.04
2007.05
2007.06
2007.07
2007.08
2007.09
2007.10
2007.11
2007.12
2008.01
2008.02
2008.03
2008.04
2008.05
2008.06
UsPpiInd UkPpiMnf IndWpiMf
02 August 2008 General: AV 33
34. Inflation Convergence: US & India
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
I
n
f
l
a
t
i
o
n
(
%
)
India Ppfce US Pcons
Diff:India-US Poly. (Diff:India-US)
19th Junel 2008 Mumbai Isec: AV 34
36. Monetary Policy and Inflation
• Cost Push and Monetary accommodation!
– Monetary Policy includes exchange rate policy
– Important only for its effect on objectives
• Monetary Policy Objectives
– Production/Growth & Inflation – emphasis varies
– Socio-Political Tolerance level of Inflation
– Primary Focus Today- Inflation & Expectations
• Capital flows main driver of RM gr. (prt. Q4
2007-8)
02 August 2008 General: AV 36
38. Real Interest Rate Convergence: US-India
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8 1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
I
n
t
e
r
e
s
t
r
a
t
e
(
%
)
US1yr India364d Dif:Ind-Us Poly. (Dif:Ind-Us)
19th Junel 2008 Mumbai Isec: AV 38
39. Inflation & Interest rates
• Inflation Trajectory
– Medium Term: Down to normal level in a year
– Short Term: Depends on Oil prices
• Real Interest rates
– Short term: Decline
– Medium Term: U shaped pattern to normal in a
year
• Aggregate Inflation: Who is hurt
– Poor- unskilled wage lag.
02 August 2008 General: AV 39
40. Growth/Production objective:
Policy and Institutional Reform
• March 2008 Forecast: 8% to 9% (8.5 -/+ 0.5)
• Oil shock and Production(IIP) data:
– Revised forecast: 7.75% to 8.75% (8.25% -/+ 0.5)
• Productivity enhancing reforms can help
moderate cyclical downturn and inflation
upturn.
• Motivation for revisiting/reviving pending
reforms
02 August 2008 General: AV 40
41. Medium-Long term implications
• Natural Resources
– Non-renewable (Oil, selected minerals): Rising
relative price => Need for User efficiency,
Technical change
– Renewable : Land-intensive agriculture crops
(cereals)
• Extensive margin (e.g. forest clearing) constrained by
climate and environment concerns.
• Race between productivity and global demand.
• Relative prices could stabalise at higher levels
02 August 2008 General: AV 41
42. Balance of Payments
• Capital Flows
– Trends and Volatility (FDI, FII, ECB)
– Current year: Below trend- FII (Global risk/liquidity
preference vs. liquidity).
– Medium Term: Surplus capital flows/reserve
accum.
• Current Account
– Invisibles: Non-factor services (software) & prviate
remittances low volatility around rising trend
– Exports (G&S) to Oil/natural resource exporters
02 August 2008 General: AV 42
43. Excess Capital Flows-over CAD (% of GDP)
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
C
a
p
i
t
a
l
F
l
o
w
s
(
%
G
D
P
)
ExcessCapital flow Portfolio (FII)
Linear (ExcessCapital flow) Linear ( Portfolio (FII))
02 August 2008 General: AV 43
44. Current Act and Goods & Services Deficit
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
P
a
y
m
e
n
t
s
B
a
l
a
n
c
e
(
%
G
D
P
)
Goods &ServicesDef CurntAct Def
Poly.(Goods &ServicesDef) Poly.(Curnt Act Def)
02 August 2008 General: AV 44
45. Long Term: Sustaining Growth
• Reforms essential for sustaining 9% for two
decades.
• Policy Reform
– Structural change: Labor market flexibility
– Competition: Decontrol, free entry
• Industry(sugar, fertilizer), mining(coal), infrastructure
(electricity - open access), financial services.
– Education and Skills: Regulated (transparency,
rating) entry (freer), controls (minimal)
– Urban Land policy (land use, supply, development,
utilities)
02 August 2008 General: AV 45
46. Sustaining Growth: Institutional
reform
• Public and Quasi-Public goods & services
– National Networks: Drinking Water, Waste (solid
and liquid)
– Universal Primary education-outcome (not
enrolment)
– Civic/Urban services
• Social service delivery: Empowerment
– Debit/credit (smart card): PC WP 2002
– Multi-application smart card (UID): 2005, 2006,
02 August 2008 General: AV 46
47. References
Precursor:
India’s Economic Growth: From Socialist Rate of Growth to Bharatiya Rate of Growth,
Working Paper No. 122, ICRIER, February 2004.
Two Phases (4 sub-phases), Third phase statistically insignificant.
Heuristic Theory and Empirics!
Policy Regimes, Growth and Poverty in India: Lessons of Government Failure and
Entrepreneurial Success!, Working Paper No. 170, ICRIER, October 2005.
The Dynamics of Competition: Phasing of Domestic and External Liberalisation in India,”
Working Paper No. 4/2006-PC, Planning Commission, April 2006.
Propelling India from Socialist Stagnation to Global Power: Growth Process, Vol. I (Policy
Reform, Vol. II), Academic Foundation, New Delhi, 2006.
“Maco-economic Management of Indian Economy: Capital Flows, Interest Rates and
Inflation, Working paper No. 2/2007-DEA, Ministry of Finance, November 2007.
Economic Survey, 2007-8, February 2008
02 August 2008 General: AV 47
Editor's Notes
India’s Economic Growth: From Socialist Rate of Growth to Bharatiya Rate of Growth, Working Paper No. 122, ICRIER, February 2004.
Propelling India from Socialist Stagnation to Global Power: Growth Process, Vol. I (Policy Reform, Vol. II), Academic Foundation, New Delhi, 2006.
Policy Regimes, Growth and Poverty in India: Lessons of Government Failure and Entrepreneurial Success!, Working Paper No. 170, ICRIER, October 2005.
“The Dynamics of Competition: Phasing of Domestic and External Liberalisation in India,” Working Paper No. 4/2006-PC, Planning Commission, April 2006.
India’s Economic Growth: From Socialist Rate of Growth to Bharatiya Rate of Growth, Working Paper No. 122, ICRIER, February 2004.
Propelling India from Socialist Stagnation to Global Power: Growth Process, Vol. I (Policy Reform, Vol. II), Academic Foundation, New Delhi, 2006.
Policy Regimes, Growth and Poverty in India: Lessons of Government Failure and Entrepreneurial Success!, Working Paper No. 170, ICRIER, October 2005.
“The Dynamics of Competition: Phasing of Domestic and External Liberalisation in India,” Working Paper No. 4/2006-PC, Planning Commission, April 2006.
J curve effect. (1) Heavily protected-import liberalisation: drastic change in relative prices. (2) Fall in measured productivity-capital immobility & obsolesence (3) Acceleration after lag: I embodied technology, S curve of diffusion, unfamiliar tech HR adjusting, learning. Adjusted R square = 0.57.
Related to next three figures
2000-2002 pessimism, 2003-2004 Cyclical recovery, 2005-2006 cyclical up swing projected to 10% growth, 2007 back to trend. 2008-9 below trend because of global developments, particularly oil/commodities but also financial crisis (indirect effect of).
Per Capita Gdp growth: To 7.3% in 2003-4 to 2007-8 from 3.7% (1980-1 to 1991-2) ; Average income will double in ten years instead of in a generation.
Avg. Private Consumption Gr rt: Almost doubled during the past five years from previous 12 years (and doubled from what it was 10 years prior to that)
Similar picture for Gross Fixed Investment
Growth rate of : Total output (blue-accelerated), Total Investment (red-accelerated sharply), Private Final consumption Expenditure (purple-accelerated) and Govt final consumption expenditure (green-declerated).
Contribution of Govt final consumption down to 5.4% from average of 11.8% in past 10 years (12% & 11.6%).
GCF: 5 yr avg. 33.5% of GDP from 23.9% in previous 5 yrs (+9.5%). 2007-8 up to 38.4% of GDP i.e Chinese levels.
GFCF: 5 yr avg. 30.3% of GDP from 23% in previous 5 yrs (+7.3%). 2007-08 up to 34.6% of GDP (9% gr at 3.8 Icor).
I fixed private: Up 6.8% (4 yrs avg) out of total 7.3% (5 yrs avg).
Year 2005 2006 2007
Fdi Net $4.7 8.4 9.4 bi
Inward $7.7 19.4 22.1 bi
Outward $2.9 11.0 12.7 bi
Net domestic product per person, Capital intensity-Capital stock per person, Total factor productivity
June 2008: All Commodity index (+62%), Food price Index(44.4%). India Primary Food =6.4 (latest 5.8%).
Inflation: Rise of 66% in January 2008, peak of 102% in March 2008. 46.5% in June 2008.
Rise of 66% in January 2008.
Rise of 70% in January 2008 (up from 46.6% in December 2007). Crude oil(3) avg of Brent, Dubai, WTI.
Oil 92.9% Iron ore 66%
Contribution of Minerals (iron ore, dark blue) and Fuel (brown) has gone up during 2008.
Other contributors include cotton & yarn, food products (grains, F&V, spices, grain mill prds), fertilisers & chemicals.
WPI has to be compared to PPI. The USA is the largest and perhaps the most competitive global market in the World for goods. Inflation has accelerated more than in India.
CPI: Regrettably we do not have an aggregate CPI that we need for monitoring inflation. That is why we gave the private consumption deflator in the survey. I expect that to be about 50% higher this year i.e. 6-6.5%.
Solutions proposed at that time (some in Working paper #2) to deal with large capital inflows and their negative impact:
Remove restrictions on capital outflow (some actions were taken).
Slow debt inflow through an interest tax, higher reserve requirement or auction of right to borrow (instead ECB QRs tightened)
Remove import controls. Reduce “peak” import duties (non-agricultural) to 7.5% (from 10%). Counter proposals prevailed.
Allow greater symmetry in exchange rate fluctuation through greater upward flexibility.
Sterilize a greater proportion of reserve accumulation through MSS.
Interbank Call money rates were below the Repo rate during this period (=> No need to raise the Repo rate at that time).
Solutions proposed at that time (some in Working paper #2):
Remove restrictions on capital outflow (some actions taken).
Slow debt inflow through an interest tax, higher reserve requirement or auction of right to borrow (instead ECB QRs tightened)
Remove import controls. Reduce “peak” import duties (non-agricultural) to 7.5% from 10% (counter advise prevailed).
Allow greater symmetry in exchange rate fluctuation through greater upward flexibility .
Sterilize a greater proportion of reserve accumulation through MSS.
During 2008-9, growth will be below the trend rate of 8.8 to 8.9. Likely to revert back towards trend in 2009-10
11th Plan CAD average is 1.9% of GDP. Worst case (high oil prices) 2.5%.
Capital Flows exclude “other capital”. FII/equity and ECB/debt: High variability. FDI Uptrend with variation in growth rate. Current year: (Global risk/liquidity preference vs. liquidity) Net negative (2008 to date). Medium Term: Surplus capital flows/reserve accum
Exports (G&S) to Oil/natural resource exporters will increase, perhaps with a lag. At worst CAD U shaped. Probability of avg. CAD exceeding 2.5% of GDP during 11th Plan is low.
Sustaining Employment and Equitable Growth: Policies For Structural Transformation Of The Indian Economy,” Working Paper No. 3/2006-PC, Planning Commission, March 2006. http://planningcommission.nic.in/reports/wrkpapers/rpwpf.htm.
Sustaining Employment and Equitable Growth: Policies For Structural Transformation Of The Indian Economy,” Working Paper No. 3/2006-PC, Planning Commission, March 2006. http://planningcommission.nic.in/reports/wrkpapers/rpwpf.htm.
India’s Economic Growth: From Socialist Rate of Growth to Bharatiya Rate of Growth, Working Paper No. 122, ICRIER, February 2004.
Propelling India from Socialist Stagnation to Global Power: Growth Process, Vol. I (Policy Reform, Vol. II), Academic Foundation, New Delhi, 2006.
Policy Regimes, Growth and Poverty in India: Lessons of Government Failure and Entrepreneurial Success!, Working Paper No. 170, ICRIER, October 2005.
“The Dynamics of Competition: Phasing of Domestic and External Liberalisation in India,” Working Paper No. 4/2006-PC, Planning Commission, April 2006.