2024 State of Marketing Report – by HubspotMarius Sescu
https://www.hubspot.com/state-of-marketing
· Scaling relationships and proving ROI
· Social media is the place for search, sales, and service
· Authentic influencer partnerships fuel brand growth
· The strongest connections happen via call, click, chat, and camera.
· Time saved with AI leads to more creative work
· Seeking: A single source of truth
· TLDR; Get on social, try AI, and align your systems.
· More human marketing, powered by robots
ChatGPT is a revolutionary addition to the world since its introduction in 2022. A big shift in the sector of information gathering and processing happened because of this chatbot. What is the story of ChatGPT? How is the bot responding to prompts and generating contents? Swipe through these slides prepared by Expeed Software, a web development company regarding the development and technical intricacies of ChatGPT!
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsPixeldarts
The realm of product design is a constantly changing environment where technology and style intersect. Every year introduces fresh challenges and exciting trends that mold the future of this captivating art form. In this piece, we delve into the significant trends set to influence the look and functionality of product design in the year 2024.
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthThinkNow
Mental health has been in the news quite a bit lately. Dozens of U.S. states are currently suing Meta for contributing to the youth mental health crisis by inserting addictive features into their products, while the U.S. Surgeon General is touring the nation to bring awareness to the growing epidemic of loneliness and isolation. The country has endured periods of low national morale, such as in the 1970s when high inflation and the energy crisis worsened public sentiment following the Vietnam War. The current mood, however, feels different. Gallup recently reported that national mental health is at an all-time low, with few bright spots to lift spirits.
To better understand how Americans are feeling and their attitudes towards mental health in general, ThinkNow conducted a nationally representative quantitative survey of 1,500 respondents and found some interesting differences among ethnic, age and gender groups.
Technology
For example, 52% agree that technology and social media have a negative impact on mental health, but when broken out by race, 61% of Whites felt technology had a negative effect, and only 48% of Hispanics thought it did.
While technology has helped us keep in touch with friends and family in faraway places, it appears to have degraded our ability to connect in person. Staying connected online is a double-edged sword since the same news feed that brings us pictures of the grandkids and fluffy kittens also feeds us news about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, the dysfunction in Washington, the latest mass shooting and the climate crisis.
Hispanics may have a built-in defense against the isolation technology breeds, owing to their large, multigenerational households, strong social support systems, and tendency to use social media to stay connected with relatives abroad.
Age and Gender
When asked how individuals rate their mental health, men rate it higher than women by 11 percentage points, and Baby Boomers rank it highest at 83%, saying it’s good or excellent vs. 57% of Gen Z saying the same.
Gen Z spends the most amount of time on social media, so the notion that social media negatively affects mental health appears to be correlated. Unfortunately, Gen Z is also the generation that’s least comfortable discussing mental health concerns with healthcare professionals. Only 40% of them state they’re comfortable discussing their issues with a professional compared to 60% of Millennials and 65% of Boomers.
Race Affects Attitudes
As seen in previous research conducted by ThinkNow, Asian Americans lag other groups when it comes to awareness of mental health issues. Twenty-four percent of Asian Americans believe that having a mental health issue is a sign of weakness compared to the 16% average for all groups. Asians are also considerably less likely to be aware of mental health services in their communities (42% vs. 55%) and most likely to seek out information on social media (51% vs. 35%).
2024 State of Marketing Report – by HubspotMarius Sescu
https://www.hubspot.com/state-of-marketing
· Scaling relationships and proving ROI
· Social media is the place for search, sales, and service
· Authentic influencer partnerships fuel brand growth
· The strongest connections happen via call, click, chat, and camera.
· Time saved with AI leads to more creative work
· Seeking: A single source of truth
· TLDR; Get on social, try AI, and align your systems.
· More human marketing, powered by robots
ChatGPT is a revolutionary addition to the world since its introduction in 2022. A big shift in the sector of information gathering and processing happened because of this chatbot. What is the story of ChatGPT? How is the bot responding to prompts and generating contents? Swipe through these slides prepared by Expeed Software, a web development company regarding the development and technical intricacies of ChatGPT!
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsPixeldarts
The realm of product design is a constantly changing environment where technology and style intersect. Every year introduces fresh challenges and exciting trends that mold the future of this captivating art form. In this piece, we delve into the significant trends set to influence the look and functionality of product design in the year 2024.
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthThinkNow
Mental health has been in the news quite a bit lately. Dozens of U.S. states are currently suing Meta for contributing to the youth mental health crisis by inserting addictive features into their products, while the U.S. Surgeon General is touring the nation to bring awareness to the growing epidemic of loneliness and isolation. The country has endured periods of low national morale, such as in the 1970s when high inflation and the energy crisis worsened public sentiment following the Vietnam War. The current mood, however, feels different. Gallup recently reported that national mental health is at an all-time low, with few bright spots to lift spirits.
To better understand how Americans are feeling and their attitudes towards mental health in general, ThinkNow conducted a nationally representative quantitative survey of 1,500 respondents and found some interesting differences among ethnic, age and gender groups.
Technology
For example, 52% agree that technology and social media have a negative impact on mental health, but when broken out by race, 61% of Whites felt technology had a negative effect, and only 48% of Hispanics thought it did.
While technology has helped us keep in touch with friends and family in faraway places, it appears to have degraded our ability to connect in person. Staying connected online is a double-edged sword since the same news feed that brings us pictures of the grandkids and fluffy kittens also feeds us news about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, the dysfunction in Washington, the latest mass shooting and the climate crisis.
Hispanics may have a built-in defense against the isolation technology breeds, owing to their large, multigenerational households, strong social support systems, and tendency to use social media to stay connected with relatives abroad.
Age and Gender
When asked how individuals rate their mental health, men rate it higher than women by 11 percentage points, and Baby Boomers rank it highest at 83%, saying it’s good or excellent vs. 57% of Gen Z saying the same.
Gen Z spends the most amount of time on social media, so the notion that social media negatively affects mental health appears to be correlated. Unfortunately, Gen Z is also the generation that’s least comfortable discussing mental health concerns with healthcare professionals. Only 40% of them state they’re comfortable discussing their issues with a professional compared to 60% of Millennials and 65% of Boomers.
Race Affects Attitudes
As seen in previous research conducted by ThinkNow, Asian Americans lag other groups when it comes to awareness of mental health issues. Twenty-four percent of Asian Americans believe that having a mental health issue is a sign of weakness compared to the 16% average for all groups. Asians are also considerably less likely to be aware of mental health services in their communities (42% vs. 55%) and most likely to seek out information on social media (51% vs. 35%).
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfmarketingartwork
This article is all about what AI trends will emerge in the field of creative operations in 2024. All the marketers and brand builders should be aware of these trends for their further use and save themselves some time!
A report by thenetworkone and Kurio.
The contributing experts and agencies are (in an alphabetical order): Sylwia Rytel, Social Media Supervisor, 180heartbeats + JUNG v MATT (PL), Sharlene Jenner, Vice President - Director of Engagement Strategy, Abelson Taylor (USA), Alex Casanovas, Digital Director, Atrevia (ES), Dora Beilin, Senior Social Strategist, Barrett Hoffher (USA), Min Seo, Campaign Director, Brand New Agency (KR), Deshé M. Gully, Associate Strategist, Day One Agency (USA), Francesca Trevisan, Strategist, Different (IT), Trevor Crossman, CX and Digital Transformation Director; Olivia Hussey, Strategic Planner; Simi Srinarula, Social Media Manager, The Hallway (AUS), James Hebbert, Managing Director, Hylink (CN / UK), Mundy Álvarez, Planning Director; Pedro Rojas, Social Media Manager; Pancho González, CCO, Inbrax (CH), Oana Oprea, Head of Digital Planning, Jam Session Agency (RO), Amy Bottrill, Social Account Director, Launch (UK), Gaby Arriaga, Founder, Leonardo1452 (MX), Shantesh S Row, Creative Director, Liwa (UAE), Rajesh Mehta, Chief Strategy Officer; Dhruv Gaur, Digital Planning Lead; Leonie Mergulhao, Account Supervisor - Social Media & PR, Medulla (IN), Aurelija Plioplytė, Head of Digital & Social, Not Perfect (LI), Daiana Khaidargaliyeva, Account Manager, Osaka Labs (UK / USA), Stefanie Söhnchen, Vice President Digital, PIABO Communications (DE), Elisabeth Winiartati, Managing Consultant, Head of Global Integrated Communications; Lydia Aprina, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Nita Prabowo, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Okhi, Web Developer, PNTR Group (ID), Kei Obusan, Insights Director; Daffi Ranandi, Insights Manager, Radarr (SG), Gautam Reghunath, Co-founder & CEO, Talented (IN), Donagh Humphreys, Head of Social and Digital Innovation, THINKHOUSE (IRE), Sarah Yim, Strategy Director, Zulu Alpha Kilo (CA).
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Search Engine Journal
The search marketing landscape is evolving rapidly with new technologies, and professionals, like you, rely on innovative paid search strategies to meet changing demands.
It’s important that you’re ready to implement new strategies in 2024.
Check this out and learn the top trends in paid search advertising that are expected to gain traction, so you can drive higher ROI more efficiently in 2024.
You’ll learn:
- The latest trends in AI and automation, and what this means for an evolving paid search ecosystem.
- New developments in privacy and data regulation.
- Emerging ad formats that are expected to make an impact next year.
Watch Sreekant Lanka from iQuanti and Irina Klein from OneMain Financial as they dive into the future of paid search and explore the trends, strategies, and technologies that will shape the search marketing landscape.
If you’re looking to assess your paid search strategy and design an industry-aligned plan for 2024, then this webinar is for you.
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summarySpeakerHub
From their humble beginnings in 1984, TED has grown into the world’s most powerful amplifier for speakers and thought-leaders to share their ideas. They have over 2,400 filmed talks (not including the 30,000+ TEDx videos) freely available online, and have hosted over 17,500 events around the world.
With over one billion views in a year, it’s no wonder that so many speakers are looking to TED for ideas on how to share their message more effectively.
The article “5 Public-Speaking Tips TED Gives Its Speakers”, by Carmine Gallo for Forbes, gives speakers five practical ways to connect with their audience, and effectively share their ideas on stage.
Whether you are gearing up to get on a TED stage yourself, or just want to master the skills that so many of their speakers possess, these tips and quotes from Chris Anderson, the TED Talks Curator, will encourage you to make the most impactful impression on your audience.
See the full article and more summaries like this on SpeakerHub here: https://speakerhub.com/blog/5-presentation-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers
See the original article on Forbes here:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2016/05/06/5-public-speaking-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers/&refURL=&referrer=#5c07a8221d9b
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd Clark Boyd
Everyone is in agreement that ChatGPT (and other generative AI tools) will shape the future of work. Yet there is little consensus on exactly how, when, and to what extent this technology will change our world.
Businesses that extract maximum value from ChatGPT will use it as a collaborative tool for everything from brainstorming to technical maintenance.
For individuals, now is the time to pinpoint the skills the future professional will need to thrive in the AI age.
Check out this presentation to understand what ChatGPT is, how it will shape the future of work, and how you can prepare to take advantage.
A brief introduction to DataScience with explaining of the concepts, algorithms, machine learning, supervised and unsupervised learning, clustering, statistics, data preprocessing, real-world applications etc.
It's part of a Data Science Corner Campaign where I will be discussing the fundamentals of DataScience, AIML, Statistics etc.
Time Management & Productivity - Best PracticesVit Horky
Here's my presentation on by proven best practices how to manage your work time effectively and how to improve your productivity. It includes practical tips and how to use tools such as Slack, Google Apps, Hubspot, Google Calendar, Gmail and others.
The six step guide to practical project managementMindGenius
The six step guide to practical project management
If you think managing projects is too difficult, think again.
We’ve stripped back project management processes to the
basics – to make it quicker and easier, without sacrificing
the vital ingredients for success.
“If you’re looking for some real-world guidance, then The Six Step Guide to Practical Project Management will help.”
Dr Andrew Makar, Tactical Project Management
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...Applitools
During this webinar, Anand Bagmar demonstrates how AI tools such as ChatGPT can be applied to various stages of the software development life cycle (SDLC) using an eCommerce application case study. Find the on-demand recording and more info at https://applitools.info/b59
Key takeaways:
• Learn how to use ChatGPT to add AI power to your testing and test automation
• Understand the limitations of the technology and where human expertise is crucial
• Gain insight into different AI-based tools
• Adopt AI-based tools to stay relevant and optimize work for developers and testers
* ChatGPT and OpenAI belong to OpenAI, L.L.C.
More than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike Routes
This session highlights best practices and lessons learned for U.S. Bike Route System designation, as well as how and why these routes should be integrated into bicycle planning at the local and regional level.
Presenters:
Presenter: Kevin Luecke Toole Design Group
Co-Presenter: Virginia Sullivan Adventure Cycling Association
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfmarketingartwork
This article is all about what AI trends will emerge in the field of creative operations in 2024. All the marketers and brand builders should be aware of these trends for their further use and save themselves some time!
A report by thenetworkone and Kurio.
The contributing experts and agencies are (in an alphabetical order): Sylwia Rytel, Social Media Supervisor, 180heartbeats + JUNG v MATT (PL), Sharlene Jenner, Vice President - Director of Engagement Strategy, Abelson Taylor (USA), Alex Casanovas, Digital Director, Atrevia (ES), Dora Beilin, Senior Social Strategist, Barrett Hoffher (USA), Min Seo, Campaign Director, Brand New Agency (KR), Deshé M. Gully, Associate Strategist, Day One Agency (USA), Francesca Trevisan, Strategist, Different (IT), Trevor Crossman, CX and Digital Transformation Director; Olivia Hussey, Strategic Planner; Simi Srinarula, Social Media Manager, The Hallway (AUS), James Hebbert, Managing Director, Hylink (CN / UK), Mundy Álvarez, Planning Director; Pedro Rojas, Social Media Manager; Pancho González, CCO, Inbrax (CH), Oana Oprea, Head of Digital Planning, Jam Session Agency (RO), Amy Bottrill, Social Account Director, Launch (UK), Gaby Arriaga, Founder, Leonardo1452 (MX), Shantesh S Row, Creative Director, Liwa (UAE), Rajesh Mehta, Chief Strategy Officer; Dhruv Gaur, Digital Planning Lead; Leonie Mergulhao, Account Supervisor - Social Media & PR, Medulla (IN), Aurelija Plioplytė, Head of Digital & Social, Not Perfect (LI), Daiana Khaidargaliyeva, Account Manager, Osaka Labs (UK / USA), Stefanie Söhnchen, Vice President Digital, PIABO Communications (DE), Elisabeth Winiartati, Managing Consultant, Head of Global Integrated Communications; Lydia Aprina, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Nita Prabowo, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Okhi, Web Developer, PNTR Group (ID), Kei Obusan, Insights Director; Daffi Ranandi, Insights Manager, Radarr (SG), Gautam Reghunath, Co-founder & CEO, Talented (IN), Donagh Humphreys, Head of Social and Digital Innovation, THINKHOUSE (IRE), Sarah Yim, Strategy Director, Zulu Alpha Kilo (CA).
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Search Engine Journal
The search marketing landscape is evolving rapidly with new technologies, and professionals, like you, rely on innovative paid search strategies to meet changing demands.
It’s important that you’re ready to implement new strategies in 2024.
Check this out and learn the top trends in paid search advertising that are expected to gain traction, so you can drive higher ROI more efficiently in 2024.
You’ll learn:
- The latest trends in AI and automation, and what this means for an evolving paid search ecosystem.
- New developments in privacy and data regulation.
- Emerging ad formats that are expected to make an impact next year.
Watch Sreekant Lanka from iQuanti and Irina Klein from OneMain Financial as they dive into the future of paid search and explore the trends, strategies, and technologies that will shape the search marketing landscape.
If you’re looking to assess your paid search strategy and design an industry-aligned plan for 2024, then this webinar is for you.
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summarySpeakerHub
From their humble beginnings in 1984, TED has grown into the world’s most powerful amplifier for speakers and thought-leaders to share their ideas. They have over 2,400 filmed talks (not including the 30,000+ TEDx videos) freely available online, and have hosted over 17,500 events around the world.
With over one billion views in a year, it’s no wonder that so many speakers are looking to TED for ideas on how to share their message more effectively.
The article “5 Public-Speaking Tips TED Gives Its Speakers”, by Carmine Gallo for Forbes, gives speakers five practical ways to connect with their audience, and effectively share their ideas on stage.
Whether you are gearing up to get on a TED stage yourself, or just want to master the skills that so many of their speakers possess, these tips and quotes from Chris Anderson, the TED Talks Curator, will encourage you to make the most impactful impression on your audience.
See the full article and more summaries like this on SpeakerHub here: https://speakerhub.com/blog/5-presentation-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers
See the original article on Forbes here:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2016/05/06/5-public-speaking-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers/&refURL=&referrer=#5c07a8221d9b
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd Clark Boyd
Everyone is in agreement that ChatGPT (and other generative AI tools) will shape the future of work. Yet there is little consensus on exactly how, when, and to what extent this technology will change our world.
Businesses that extract maximum value from ChatGPT will use it as a collaborative tool for everything from brainstorming to technical maintenance.
For individuals, now is the time to pinpoint the skills the future professional will need to thrive in the AI age.
Check out this presentation to understand what ChatGPT is, how it will shape the future of work, and how you can prepare to take advantage.
A brief introduction to DataScience with explaining of the concepts, algorithms, machine learning, supervised and unsupervised learning, clustering, statistics, data preprocessing, real-world applications etc.
It's part of a Data Science Corner Campaign where I will be discussing the fundamentals of DataScience, AIML, Statistics etc.
Time Management & Productivity - Best PracticesVit Horky
Here's my presentation on by proven best practices how to manage your work time effectively and how to improve your productivity. It includes practical tips and how to use tools such as Slack, Google Apps, Hubspot, Google Calendar, Gmail and others.
The six step guide to practical project managementMindGenius
The six step guide to practical project management
If you think managing projects is too difficult, think again.
We’ve stripped back project management processes to the
basics – to make it quicker and easier, without sacrificing
the vital ingredients for success.
“If you’re looking for some real-world guidance, then The Six Step Guide to Practical Project Management will help.”
Dr Andrew Makar, Tactical Project Management
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...Applitools
During this webinar, Anand Bagmar demonstrates how AI tools such as ChatGPT can be applied to various stages of the software development life cycle (SDLC) using an eCommerce application case study. Find the on-demand recording and more info at https://applitools.info/b59
Key takeaways:
• Learn how to use ChatGPT to add AI power to your testing and test automation
• Understand the limitations of the technology and where human expertise is crucial
• Gain insight into different AI-based tools
• Adopt AI-based tools to stay relevant and optimize work for developers and testers
* ChatGPT and OpenAI belong to OpenAI, L.L.C.
More than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike Routes
This session highlights best practices and lessons learned for U.S. Bike Route System designation, as well as how and why these routes should be integrated into bicycle planning at the local and regional level.
Presenters:
Presenter: Kevin Luecke Toole Design Group
Co-Presenter: Virginia Sullivan Adventure Cycling Association
More than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike Routes
Bérnövekedés és Sp500 profit
1. Bérnövekedés, vállalati profitok és a részvénypiac kapcsolata
2013 májusától a piaci szereplők többé-kevésbé sejtik, hogy az amerikai jegybank szerepét betöltő FED
lassan elérkezik ahhoz a gazdasági állapothoz, hogy el kell kezdenie kamatot emelni. A FED alapvetően
adatokra támaszkodik és a legtöbb esetben teljes körűen tájékoztatja a piaci szereplőket arról, hogy
mit és miért fog tenni. Tette ezt 2013 nyár elején is, amikor az akkori jegybank-elnök Ben Bernanke
először tájékoztatta a nyilvánosságot arról, hogy nem lesz több mennyiségi lazítás. Azóta megtörtént
a kötvényvásárlási program kivezetése, es elkezdődött a találgatás, hogy vajon mikor esedékes az első
kamatemelési időpont.
2015-ben nagyrészt ennek a fényében telt, azonban nem kerültünk közelebb a szigorításhoz, lévén,
hogy annak időpontja folyamatosan, jegybanki tanácskozásról-tanácskozásra egyre inkább kitolódik.
Az alapvető probléma az, hogy nincs érzékelhető infláció, habár az mindenképpen kiemelendő, hogy a
2014 őszétől 2015 elejéig tartó hatalmas olajár esés miatt annak inflációba számítandó bázisa
alacsonyra került, így az utóbbi hetekben, hónapokban történt energia áremelkedés hatása megjelenik
a fogyasztói kosárban is, amely a jegybankok által elvárt, 2% közelébe tornázhatja a pénzromlás
ütemét.
Az infláció a rengeteg gazdasági tényező között azért sem tud felpörögni, mert nincs béroldalról jövő
inflációs hatás, azaz az átlagosan megkapott bérek nem emelkednek, ennek megfelelően a fogyasztók
nem költenek többet, és így nem is beszélhetünk alapvetően pénzromlásról. Nagyon fontos tényező,
hogy miközben a legtöbben és így a FED is a béroldalról jövő hatást veszi elsődlegesen figyelembe az
utóbbi években az amerikai vállalati szektor GDP-hez mért profitrátája történelmi maximumra szökött
fel (GDP arányosan körülbelül 10-12%), amelynek nagy szerepe van abban, hogy a részvénypiacok
kiugró hozamokkal örvendeztették meg a befektetőket a 2009-es évektől kezdve.
Mindezeket egybevéve a három tényező, azaz bérnövekedés majd az ebből adódó vállalati profit marzs
és végül a részvénypiacok helyzete együttesen is vizsgálandó.
A fent említett három adatsor éves változása a következőképpen alakult:
2. A legutóbbi adatok szerint a bérnövekedés éves dinamikája 2% körüli, a vállalati szektor profit
növekedése -6%, az S&P500 éves hozama jelenleg +12%.
Első lépésben megvizsgáljuk a bérnövekedés profitokra gyakorolt hatását, majd utána azzal a
feltételezéssel élünk, hogy a bérek emelkedése 2017-re eléri a 4%-ot, mely a FED által várt szint, és
megnézzük azt, hogy ennek milyen hatása lehet a részvénypiacokra.
A következő x-y diagramból világosan látszik, hogy minél nagyobb a bérnövekedés, annál alacsonyabb
a profitok növekedése. A 2007-2008-as időszak, amikor bőven 3% feletti bérdinamikával számoltunk a
diagram jobb oldalán helyezkedik el, akkor -10% alatti volt az éves profitbővülés a cégek esetében.
Jelenleg 0% alatti profitbővülés tapasztalható a vállalati szektor esetében, azaz a 0 és -15%-os
profitnövekedés és a 2-2,2%-os bérnövekedés metszéspontjában találhatóak a jelenlegi adatok. Abban
az esetben, ha feltesszük, hogy a bérek elérik az éves 4%-os növekedési ütemet gyaníthatjuk, hogy a
profitok év/év alapon 0% alatti növekedést fognak tudni felmutatni, ami nyomást gyakorolhat a
részvénypiacokra is.
További elemzés tárgya lehet, ha a bérnövekedést a GDP-hez mért profitrátával hasonlítjuk össze.
Ebben az esetben a magasabb bérnövekedés (y tengely) alacsonyabb profit/GDP aránnyal jár együtt.
Azaz egy 3 és 4% közötti bérnövekedés 6-8%-os profit marzs tárulhat, ami a jelentősen alacsonyabb,
mint az utóbbi időszakban megszokott 10% közeli, vagy a feletti érték.
3. A profit marzsok alakulása a GDP százalékában:
A bérnövekedés és vállalati profitbővülés lineáris regressziója a következő eredményeket adja. Ezek
szerint egy egységnyi bérnövekedés 12%-al csökkenti a profitbővülést. Igaz az R négyzet értéke
mindössze 25%, azaz ebből is világosan látszik, hogy a profitokat más tényezők is jelentősen
befolyásolják. Azt azonban fontos megjegyezni, hogy nem is abból indultunk ki, hogy ez az egyetlen
tényező, amely gátat szabhatna a profitnövekedésnek.
4. Model 1: OLS, using observations 2007:2-2014:4 (T = 31)
Dependent variable: corpprofitwithivj
Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value
const 33,3474 9,52686 3,5004 0,00152 ***
wagegrowth −12,2595 3,91917 -3,1281 0,00398 ***
Mean dependent var 4,449694 S.D. dependent var 14,73472
Sum squared resid 4870,132 S.E. of regression 12,95900
R-squared 0,252285 Adjusted R-squared 0,226502
F(1, 29) 9,784847 P-value(F) 0,003985
Log-likelihood −122,3689 Akaike criterion 248,7378
Schwarz criterion 251,6057 Hannan-Quinn 249,6726
rho 0,497544 Durbin-Watson 0,994109
Ha mindezt nem a profitok éves növekedési ütemével szemben, hanem a profit/GDP aránnyal szemben
vizsgáljuk meg, akkor az R négyzet értéke 50%-ra emelkedik és kitűnik az adatokból, hogy egy egységnyi
bérnövekedés (1%) 1,44 egységgel (1,44%-al) csökkenti a profitok GDP-hez mért arányát.
Model 2: OLS, using observations 2007:2-2015:1 (T = 32)
Dependent variable: profitgdp
Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value
const 0,136014 0,00637838 21,3243 <0,00001 ***
wagegrowth1 −1,44582 0,263563 -5,4857 <0,00001 ***
Mean dependent var 0,102069 S.D. dependent var 0,012181
Sum squared resid 0,002296 S.E. of regression 0,008749
R-squared 0,500770 Adjusted R-squared 0,484129
F(1, 30) 30,09252 P-value(F) 5,91e-06
Log-likelihood 107,2678 Akaike criterion −210,5356
Schwarz criterion −207,6041 Hannan-Quinn −209,5639
rho 0,610914 Durbin-Watson 0,711930
5. A profitbővülés az egyik legfontosabb tényező abban az esetben, ha valaki a részvénypiacokon kíván
befektetni, hiszen senki sem érdeklődik olyan vállalatok részvényei iránt, melyek nem tudnak évről
évre emelkedő eredményről számot adni. Miért is tenne ilyet bárki, hiszen az osztalékok kifizetéséhez,
illetve azok folyamatos növeléséhez, az utóbbi időszakban a megnövekedett vállalati részvény-
visszavásárlásoknak az emelkedő profit az alapja. A legtöbb részvényértékelési modell vagy a jövőbeli
osztalékdinamikát, vagy a jövőbeli szabad cash-flow-t veszi alapul, melyek csak abban az esetben
fenntarthatóak, hogy a vállalat évről évre többletet tud termelni.
Ha megvizsgáljuk az S&P500 és a vállalatok profitnövekedésének, illetve profit/GDP arány kapcsolatát
akkor a következőket szűrhetjük le az adatokból. A vállalati profitok éves növekedési üteme és az
részvénypiac éves növekedése között viszonylag gyenge a kapcsolat. Az R négyzet értéke mindössze
9%, és a kapott érték is mindössze 10%-os konfidencia szinten szignifikáns. Azonban ha a profitok egy
időszakkal korábbi bővülését használjuk kiinduló pontnak, akkor a kapcsolat szorosabbá válik, az R
négyzet értéke 27%-ra ugrik, valamint az adat is szignifikáns lesz.
Model 20: OLS, using observations 2008:2-2014:4 (T = 27)
Dependent variable: sp500
Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value
const 2,14913 3,67026 0,5856 0,56343
corpprofitwithivj_
1
0,710512 0,229241 3,0994 0,00475 ***
Mean dependent var 6,504363 S.D. dependent var 20,32598
Sum squared resid 7759,975 S.E. of regression 17,61814
R-squared 0,277590 Adjusted R-squared 0,248694
F(1, 25) 9,606386 P-value(F) 0,004749
6. Log-likelihood −114,7335 Akaike criterion 233,4669
Schwarz criterion 236,0586 Hannan-Quinn 234,2376
rho 0,741646 Durbin-Watson 0,522928
Ugyan ez a vizsgálat az S&P500 és a profit/GDP arány tekintetében erősen szignifikáns és az R négyzet
értéke is majdnem 60%-os. Azaz a profit/GDP egy százaléknyi változása 12%-al módosítja az S&P 500
éves növekedési ütemét. Ez elég magasnak tűnik, és ebből kifolyólag a profitok változásának jelentős
hatást kellene kifejtenie a részvénypiacokra.
Model 21: OLS, using observations 2007:2-2015:1 (T = 32)
Dependent variable: sp500
Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value
const −115,776 18,4471 -6,2761 <0,00001 ***
profitgdp 1202,6 179,497 6,6998 <0,00001 ***
Mean dependent var 6,972846 S.D. dependent var 18,92184
Sum squared resid 4446,287 S.E. of regression 12,17414
R-squared 0,599402 Adjusted R-squared 0,586048
F(1, 30) 44,88799 P-value(F) 2,01e-07
Log-likelihood −124,3515 Akaike criterion 252,7029
Schwarz criterion 255,6344 Hannan-Quinn 253,6746
rho 0,437094 Durbin-Watson 1,060267
S&P500 és a profit/GDP-ből származtatott model:
A FED alapvető feltevése az, hogy a bérnövekedésnek körülbelül 4%-ig kellene emelkednie, így
valósulna meg az a szcenárió, hogy az infláció 2% magasságába emelkedne, ami következtében
7. különösebb hatás nélkül lehetne kamatot emelni. A kamatok magasabb szinten tartásának az is az
egyik elengedhetetlen előnye, hogy ha esetleg később jön egy gazdasági sokk, akkor lehessen arra
érdemben reagálni, ugyanis a nulla körüli alapkamatokkal az a legnagyobb probléma, hogy egy
következő recesszió esetén a monetáris politikának gyakorlatilag nem lesz eszköze azt orvosolni, vagy
legalábbis tompítani.
A következő lépésben feltesszük, hogy 2017-re a bérdinamika éves 4% körüli értéket ér el, és
megvizsgáljuk, hogy ez milyen mértékben befolyásolná a profit/GDP arány, a profitbővülést és ezen
keresztül a részvénypiacokat.
Amennyiben azzal a feltételezéssel élünk, hogy 2017 első negyedévére a bérdinamika 4% feletti értéket
tud elérni, akkor az ebből származtatott profitbővülés körülbelül -20% környékére eshet. Ezt a
következő ábra szemlélteti. Fontos megjegyezni, hogy az előrejelzéshez használt lineáris regresszió
értékei a Model 1. összesítésben látható.
Egy ilyen bérnövekedési pályával a profit/GDP arány körülbelül 7 és 8% közé süllyedne, amely a
korábbi, Model 21 adatait szemlélve komoly hatást gyakorolni az S&P500 értékeltségére. A Model 2
adataiból származtatott profit/GDP pálya alakulása 4%-ra növekvő bérpálya esetében:
8. Amennyiben a Model 21-et átalakítjuk az így, bérnövekedéssel korrigált profit/GDP értékeivel, akkor
a következő lineáris regressziót kapjuk alapul:
Model 26: OLS, using observations 2007:2-2015:1 (T = 32)
Dependent variable: sp500
Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value
const −127,053 32,8921 -3,8627 0,00056 ***
prforecast 1313,09 321,146 4,0888 0,00030 ***
Mean dependent var 6,972846 S.D. dependent var 18,92184
Sum squared resid 7127,325 S.E. of regression 15,41355
R-squared 0,357848 Adjusted R-squared 0,336442
F(1, 30) 16,71788 P-value(F) 0,000299
Log-likelihood −131,9013 Akaike criterion 267,8026
Schwarz criterion 270,7341 Hannan-Quinn 268,7743
rho 0,698528 Durbin-Watson 0,440193
Az így felhasznált adatokból készített előrejelzés szerint az S&P 500 éves növekedési üteme akár -20%
alá is eshet, addig, amíg a magasabb bérköltség jelentősen lefaragja a vállalatok profitját a GDP-hez
mérten. Ennek megfelelően akár egy 1600 pontos S&P 500 is elképzelhető az elkövetkezendő 2 évben.
Természetesen ehhez szükséges a bérek növekedésének megindulása, amire a recesszió óta nem
nagyon volt még jel, így nyilván nem nagy a valószínűsége annak sem, hogy 2017 elejére hirtelen
duplájára emelkedik az a mutató.