This document provides a summary of the 2018 Houston commercial real estate market outlook presented at the BoyarMiller Real Estate Forum. There is significant capital available for commercial real estate investment and the industrial, multifamily, and experiential retail sectors are expected to perform well. The office market faces challenges from sublease space but is seeing increased investment. The industrial market will continue growing due to e-commerce, new development, and petrochemical activity. Houston may face a multifamily unit shortage as population grows. Retail is adapting to e-commerce through integrated online/physical presences. Overall the outlook for Houston commercial real estate from outside investors remains positive.
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More online: http://www.boyarmiller.com/news-and-publications/events/breakfast-forum-the-houston-commercial-real-estate-markets-whats-ahead-for-2016/
As part of its ongoing Breakfast Forum series, BoyarMiller gathered industry experts for a panel discussion on the look ahead for Houston’s Commercial Real Estate for 2016.
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Many real estate firms have long made decisions based on a combination of intuition and traditional, retrospective data. Today, a host of new variables make it possible to paint more vivid pictures of a location’s future risks and opportunities.
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Corporate and shareholder sentiment towards MA has rebounded since the dark days of 2008. Low borrowing costs have coaxed many new buyers, including acquisitive Chinese conglomerates, into the market. The prices of prized assets have risen accordingly. It remains a sellers market in technology-driven deals, particularly in the consumer-goods, financial services, and media and telecommunications sectors.
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A vertically integrated real estate investment platform serving as the parent company for a
group of operating subsidiaries, investment partnerships, funds, and ventures. Founded and
Managed by Jeff Klotz. The Klotz Group platform has a nationwide presence, a reputation for excellence and has become a “best in class” multifamily real estate sponsor, investor, owner, partner, broker, capital provider and developer.
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As part of its ongoing Breakfast Forum series, BoyarMiller gathered industry experts for a panel discussion on the look ahead for Houston’s Commercial Real Estate for 2016.
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The BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum returned in person discussing The Future of Houston: What's Shaping Our Economy. The panel of featured guests featured a variety of perspectives from Houston experts in Capital Markets, Energy, and Real Estate.
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Many real estate firms have long made decisions based on a combination of intuition and traditional, retrospective data. Today, a host of new variables make it possible to paint more vivid pictures of a location’s future risks and opportunities.
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2. CONTACT
2925 Richmond Avenue, 14th Floor
Houston, Texas 77098
713.850.7766
Visit boyarmiller.com
TABLE OF CONTENTS
03 : The Breakfast Forum Snapshot
04 : Houston Commercial Real Estate At-a-Glance
05 : Expert Insights
Houston Real Estate Overview
Office Market and Mixed-Used Development
Industrial Real Estate
08 : Attorney Insights
Houston — A Tale of Two Cities: Through the
Looking Glass of Residents and Outside Investors
10 : BoyarMiller Real Estate Practice Leaders
12 : BoyarMiller Real Estate Attorneys
Friends,
We’ve been hosting the annual BoyarMiller Real Estate Forum for a long time bringing
together market experts who share their insights and knowledge about the industry.
Throughout the years, there have been up cycles and downturns affecting this important
sector of our economy. Admittedly, it was much more exciting to hear an optimistic
panel reveal several 2018 positive trends in commercial and industrial real estate.
The goal of our breakfast forums and this eBook is to share information and knowledge
because we believe continuous learning is one of the keys to success in life, no matter
what you do. It is one way we spotlight the trends that impact the Houston business
landscape and may affect your business directly.
This edition of our eBook summarizes the 2018 market outlook for Houston’s commercial
real estate industry as presented by Jimmy Hinton with HFF, Jonathan Brinsden with
Midway Companies, and John Nicholson of AVERA Companies. We thank them for
sharing their wisdom as we all breathe a collective sigh of relief that the forecast
for Houston’s commercial real estate market is excellent.
Feel free to forward this eBook to others who may find the information of value.
And let us know how we can help you reach your goals for this year and beyond.
My best,
CHRIS HANSLIK
Firm Chairman
LEARN MORE ABOUT THE FORUM
3. The Breakfast Forum
Snapshot
PAGE 03
As 2018 began, institutional
investors are focused on
Houston again, while the
industrial and multifamily
markets still have room
to run.
MICHELLE LEIGH SMITH
RealtyNewsReport
http://realtynewsreport.com/
2018/01/18/out-of-the-deep-freeze-
houston-real-estate-is-heating-up-in-2018/
In 2018, ‘there’s so much
capital earmarked for real
estate’ in Houston.
CARA SMITH
Houston Business Journal
http://bizj.us/1pgv0w
If there was anything
good that came out of the
financial crisis, it was lower
leverage, more equity, says
Jonathan Brinsden
@MidwayCompanies
#CRE forum @boyarmiller
KATHERINE FESER
Houston Chronicle
https://twitter.com/kfeser
4. PAGE 04
$150 billion
15 percent
only
3 percent
8,000 FOR RENT
Capital in the U.S.
ready to be deployed
for office investment
TAKEAWAY:
there is so much capital earmarked for real-estate
Growth in container
shipping from the
Port of Houston
TAKEAWAY:
and will continue to increase over next couple of years
as more petrochem plants come online
Amount of all retail
spending done
online in U.S.
TAKEAWAY:
brick and mortar still has a place in retail!
Number of available
multifamily units
in Houston
TAKEAWAY:
but we still need 15,000 units a year to meet Houston’s
expected rental growth to 2030
Houston Commercial
Real Estate At-a-Glance
5. PAGE 05
Expert Insights
ABOUT JIMMY
Jimmy Hinton serves as Managing Director of HFF
and is responsible for the firm’s research efforts.
He works with the executive management team
to assist in investor relations and to inform both
HFF staff and firm clients with in-depth analysis of
economic, property and capital market trends.
He also provides extensive market reports, pre-
sentations and deal-specific analysis for debt
placement and investment sales assignments.
“There is
tremendous
opportunity
in Houston.
We are quite
bullish for 2018.”
Houston Real
Estate Overview
JIMMY HINTON
Managing Director, Research, HFF
• When you step back, you can see our market more
clearly. There is a lot of capital earmarked for commer-
cial investment in Houston.
• Pure play online retail is the hockey stick in terms of
growth. It accounts for three percent of retail spending,
which is not very much. There is a long way to go
before brick and mortar retail is exposed fully.
• We are seeing obvious signs of retail weakness in some
regional malls. However, experiential retail outperforms
the industry. The average return from an online pur-
chase to a retail store results in 140 percent of the
spend. That is creating top-line revenue growth.
• There is a larger market for residential growth
among baby boomers as they consider high-end
multifamily property.
• Co-working space is a trend that affects all asset
classes. A lot more people work for themselves or in
small businesses and want nimbleness and flexibility.
Commercial real estate needs to adapt to operate
assets that accommodate this big trend.
6. ABOUT JONATHAN
Jonathan Brinsden is CEO of Midway
Companies and guides its overall business
strategy and operations.
He is member of the Urban Land Institute
Board of Directors, Board of Trustees and the
Governance Committee, and past Chair of
ULI Houston. He is also a board member of
NAIOP and an active member of International
Council of Shopping Centers.
“A lot of positive
things are
happening as
we look forward.”
Office Market
and Mixed-Used
Development
JONATHAN BRINSDEN
CEO, Midway Companies
• Hurricane Harvey did not have a long-term impact on
commercial real estate with most ground-level damage
repaired by the end of 2017.
• The office market will be better than last year. There is
still a lot of sublease space in the market, although it is
dwindling or being absorbed as direct space.
• In the past, mixed-use was looked at as risky, so capital
was skeptical. Now, those with capital understand the
trends of what an office or multifamily tenant wants.
We’ll see more people willing to engage and invest
in mixed-use.
• The multifamily market has weathered the oil and gas
downturn and is improving as units are absorbed. Devel-
opers have managed the number of units so the sector
does not have a black eye to investors.
• By 2030, Houston is expected to have 3.8 million more
renters, which means we need 15,000 more units a
year to accommodate growth. Starting new multifamily
development today with a delivery window of 2-3 years
is attractive.
• Urban residential was being built for millennials but the
average age in these upscale units is much higher than
expected. It has transitioned from renting by necessity
to renting by choice.
PAGE 06
Expert Insights
7. PAGE 07
Expert Insights
ABOUT JOHN
John Nicholson serves as Executive Vice Presi-
dent of Development at AVERA Companies.
Over the last 16 years, he has negotiated
more than 700 transactions providing in
excess of $750 million in transaction value.
“2017 was a
great year for
absorption in
the industrial
market.”
Industrial
Real Estate
JOHN NICHOLSON
Executive Vice President, AVERA Companies
• Vacancies in Houston’s industrial market hover around
six percent, which is great. We will continue to see
positive lease activity for both petrochemicals and
consumer products.
• The big story now is the trend for more warehouse
amenities. Tenants are requesting larger truck ports,
higher ceilings and more office area. Some of the
buildings that were built in the 1980s are not satisfying
those demands. So many of them will be redeveloped
going forward.
• Industrial market expansion continues in 2018
because shippers have changed their routes with
the expansion of the Panama Canal. One example:
Best Buy announced a large transaction and those
type of big-box retailers will continue to come
through Houston.
• In 2018, it’s a race among industrial developers to
identify developable sites.
• Petrochemical exports out of the Port of Houston
is still in its early stages and will only get stronger
as more plastic resin plants come on line.
8. “If you change the way you look
at things, the things you look at
change.” –Wayne Dyer
With everything that has occurred in Houston over
the past few years, it can be difficult for its residents
to understand the opportunities that are seen by those
viewing the city from the outside. Houston can be char-
acterized as the tale of two cities: the city seen from the
perspective of its residents versus the city seen from the
perspective of outside investors. For those of us living in
Houston, many experienced first-hand the effects of the
energy downturn and Hurricane Harvey, which resulted
in vacant office buildings, retail and multi-family in the
Energy Corridor and flooded residential homes. As a
result, it is understandable that some Houstonians have
a pessimistic view of our current situation, a World Series
championship notwithstanding.
However, for those outside of the city, Houston is an
attractive investment opportunity and investors are
speaking with their dollars. For them, Houston is a good
value-add proposition for many types of real estate¬,
including industrial and multi-family, while the office
and retail segments are adapting to new challenges.
INDUSTRIAL
The industrial market is currently Houston’s most dynamic
market segment, with explosive growth in development
over the past five years. Developments that, in the past,
might have gone to Dallas, Los Angeles, Chicago or
Atlanta have come to Houston. The developments are
also getting larger; where the average square footage
of projects was approximately 35,000 sq. ft. just a few
years ago, the average size has essentially doubled to
approximately 70,000 sq. ft. in recent years.
The explosion in the industrial market is driven by a
number of factors: the expansion of e-commerce, new
housing development and redevelopment in the Greater
Houston area, the expansion of the Panama Canal, and
new petrochemical plants and refineries coming online.
An unlikely foe, Harvey, has resulted in major retailers
such as Home Depot and Lowes opening new distribution
centers to serve the need for increased housing materi-
als. One of the biggest changes in the industrial market
is the expansion of requested amenities, ranging from
higher ceilings to wider column spacing. In addition to
the new development, Houston can expect to see rede-
velopment of older buildings to meet tenants’ demands.
With all of the growth in the industrial market, sites
are becoming harder to find in rail-served areas such
as Baytown, LaPorte and Deer Park. Whereas industrial
was once the highest and best use of land in those areas,
there is now competition for multi-family and single-family
residential developments. In response to the scarcity of
PAGE 08
Attorney Insights
Houston — A Tale of
Two Cities: Through
the Looking Glass
of Residents and
Outside Investors
LYNDSAY FINCHER
Associate, Business Group
BLAKE ROYAL
Shareholder, Business Group
9. From an investment standpoint of a small business owner, a
10-year lease may seem too risky, but a shorter lease, or even
a month-to-month lease, may be an easier commitment. At
the extreme end of this shift is the rise of flexible collaborative
office space providers, such as WeWork and Spaces. With all
of these perceived challenges, however, Houston is seeing
an increased investment in its office market from institutional
investors, which speaks to the confidence that those outside
of Houston have in the region.
RETAIL
The story in retail continues to be impacted by e-com-
merce. There continues to be a vast sales gap between
e-commerce and brick-and-mortar stores, but it is a shrink-
ing one, and savvy retailers (and retail developers) are
making adjustments to account for this growing challenge.
Consumers who enjoy the experience of high-end shopping
will continue to go to the stores they enjoy, but those retail-
ers are making adjustments to ensure that their customers
continue to enjoy shopping in an interactive way.
For day-to-day items like diapers and dog food, however,
consumers are increasingly turning to online, automatic
delivery options. In response, retailers are integrating auto-
mated and online interfaces with their physical locations,
such as grocery stores providing internet ordering and curb-
side pick-up, and soft goods retailers providing for more
easily accessible in-store returns for items purchased online.
The rise in online purchases will also have other effects,
such as smaller footprints for “big box” retailers, and the
rise of “lifestyle” centers that provide experiences rather
than mere shopping.
CONCLUSION
Houston is overcoming its perception as a city whose eco-
nomic health is solely tied to the price of oil. Despite all of
the recent travails our city has dealt with – and continues
to deal with – there are many reasons to be optimistic
about the Houston real estate markets and to see our-
selves as others see us – a great real estate opportunity.
land, developers are looking beyond traditional, rail-
served industrial areas to Katy and Brookshire, which are
further from downtown, the Port of Houston and railyards.
MULTI-FAMILY
It may come as a surprise that Houston may actually be
on the precipice of an undersupply of multi-family units
in light of the numerous new developments that have
been delivered in the past few years. As the number of
new projects has slowed, the excess units have been
absorbed and the market is stabilizing. With fewer new
units slated to come into the market over the next few
years and the high projected growth of Houston’s popula-
tion, the existing multi-family units will quickly be absorbed.
Interestingly, while many of the new multi-family projects
included higher-end amenities targeted towards millenni-
als, these developments are in fact attracting older gen-
erations who enjoy the amenities and, in mixed-use
developments, the ability to walk to restaurants, stores,
and other destinations right outside of their front door.
OFFICE
The Houston office market continues to face challenges,
but while some are unique to Houston, many are the
same challenges being addressed in markets worldwide.
A challenge that is particular to Houston is the oversupply
of sublease space, which is a remnant of the drop in oil
prices that left a glut of unused office space. While the
sublease market may be healthy, subleases do not
impact the overall net absorption of office space.
Now that oil prices are stabilizing – hopefully, for the long
run – we are seeing a secondary effect on the office mar-
ket. This effect is being seen on a national and worldwide
level: companies are changing the way they are structured,
which is changing the use of their offices. Business owners,
especially small business owners, are hesitant to commit
to long-term or large-scale leases because their use will
fluctuate. In addition, companies are utilizing more con-
tract labor than before, which allows their workforce to
constrict and expand to meet their needs. The net result is
that leases are for smaller spaces and shorter timelines.
ATTORNEY INSIGHTS : PAGE 09
10. PAGE 10
Real Estate
Practice Leaders
BILL BOYAR
Founding Shareholder, Business Group
Bill’s practice focuses on representing parties involved in
the acquisition, disposition, capitalization and financing
of assets and businesses on a national and international
level. He has served as lead counsel on numerous com-
plex, multi-party acquisitions and project financings,
with significant experience in corporate finance, private
equity, mergers and acquisitions, real estate and hospitality.
LEE COLLINS
Shareholder, Litigation Group
The goal of Lee Collins’ practice is to provide innovative
and value-driven solutions to the litigation-related problems
facing the client. This objective has been successfully
achieved through his direct and open communication
with the client, an early and immediate assessment of the
issues, strategic evaluation of the problem and its solution,
and aggressive representation.
BLAKE ROYAL
Shareholder, Business Group
Blake’s practice includes acquisitions and dispositions of
equity and assets, including recapitalization transactions
with venture capital and private equity funds; entity and
capital formation, including private placements, in domes-
tic and international jurisdictions; and general contractual
drafting and negotiation.
11. PRACTICE LEADERS : PAGE 11
HILARY TYSON
Shareholder, Business Group
Hilary Tyson’s practice focuses on commercial real estate
and business transactions. She joined the firm and returned
to Houston in June 2015 after practicing in the Dallas area
for more than 11 years. She represents developers, home-
builders and equity investors in a wide range of real estate
related transactions including land acquisition and disposi-
tions, residential subdivision development, financing, entity
formation, and office development and leasing.
CASSIE STINSON
Senior Counsel, Business Group
Cassie Stinson’s practice is focused on commercial real
estate and finance, public/private projects, business
transactions and public law, with a particular emphasis
on complex projects and multi-party transactions. She
handles real estate acquisitions and dispositions; leasing;
project structuring, development, design and construc-
tion; formation of business and non-profit entities, corpo-
rate governance, and business contracts; and foreign
investment in US real estate and businesses.
12. ROBERT ARTHUR
Associate, Litigation Group
Robert Arthur clerked with BoyarMiller during law school
and then joined the firm in 2014. He has represented clients
in a wide variety of business and commercial disputes. Rob-
ert has represented developers of commercial properties in
disputes against contractors or breach of contract.
PAGE 10
Real Estate
Attorneys
KASI CHADWICK
Associate, Litigation Group
Kasi Chadwick’s practice spans the full gamut of
commercial and business litigation and includes
business torts, contracts, trade secrets, non-compete
agreements and other employment-related disputes.
Licensed in Texas, Kasi practices in both state and federal
courts pursing everything from emergency injunctive relief
to the finalization of suits through post-judgment and appel-
late matters. She also pursues her client’s litigation goals
through alternative dispute resolution vehicles such as
mediations and arbitrations.
CYRUS CHIN
Associate, Business Group
Cyrus Chin has been with the firm for five years. His practice
consists of representing clients in a broad range of corpo-
rate matters, including complex merger and acquisition
transactions, corporate formation and restructuring, corpo-
rate governance, real estate transactions, contract negoti-
ation and other general business matters.
13. REAL ESTATE ATTORNEYS : PAGE 12
CALEB DUNSON
Associate, Business Group
Since joining BoyarMiller in 2017 after participating in the
Summer Associate Program, Caleb Dunson has been
involved in a wide range of corporate and real estate mat-
ters. His practice includes representing foreign and domes-
tic clients in general business matters, corporate formation
and restructuring, complex mergers and acquisitions, leas-
ing and land acquisition, disposition and development.
LYNDSAY FINCHER
Associate, Business Group
Lyndsay Fincher has been with BoyarMiller since 2013. Her
practice is primarily devoted to representing companies
and individuals in a wide range of corporate and real
estate matters including private securities, complex merg-
ers and acquisitions, corporate formation and restructuring,
leasing and land acquisition, disposition and development.
MOLLY HUST
Associate, Litigation Group
Molly Hust joined BoyarMiller’s Litigation Group in August
2015 after participating in the firm’s Summer Associate
Program. Molly’s practice is primarily focused on serving
clients in a wide range of complex commercial and
employment law disputes. Molly successfully represented
a mixed-use real estate developer in claims for breach
of contract, breach of warranty and construction defect
against its former general contractor involving substantial
water infiltration in two luxury apartment buildings.
TAYLOR LAMB
Associate, Business Group
Taylor Lamb joined BoyarMiller in 2016. Her practice consists
of various corporate and real estate matters including
entity formation, corporate governance, acquisitions and
leasing. She has represented various landlords and real
estate developers in office and retail lease negotiations
with national chains and local tenants.
14. REAL ESTATE ATTORNEYS : PAGE 12
CORINNE SULLINS
Associate, Business Group
Corinne Sullins joined BoyarMiller in 2016 after participating
in the firm’s Summer Associate program the previous year.
Her practice consists of representing clients in a broad
range of corporate matters, mergers and acquisitions, cor-
porate formation and restructuring, corporate governance,
real estate transactions, contract negotiation and other
general business matters.
ALEX PARKER
Associate, Business Group
Alex Parker joined BoyarMiller last year. Her practice is pri-
marily devoted to representing clients in a broad range of
corporate and real estate transactions including complex
mergers and acquisitions, corporate formation and restruc-
turing, corporate governance, leasing and land acquisition.
CRAIG LAUCHNER
Associate, Litigation Group
Craig joined BoyarMiller’s Business Group in September 2016
after participating in the firm’s Summer Associate program.
His practice consists of representing clients in a wide range
of business, commercial, and employment disputes.