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WHAT HOW
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 1
WHAT
HOW
Venture
Idea
Venture→
Plan of action! • Coherent • Consistent
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 2
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 3
CANVAS
VISUAL TOOL FOR
COMMUNICATION
SELF
TEAM
OTHER STAKEHOLDERS
QUICK SUMMARY
TYPES
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 4
TYPES
PLATFORM SOCIAL
COMMERCIAL
PRODUCT
SUB PROB
SUB PROB
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 5
BUSINES
S
PURPOSE COMMERCIA
L
SOCIAL
NATURE PIPELINE PLATFORM
THE ENTITY
THE ACTIVITIES
• OPERATES IN A CONTEXT
• INTERACTS WITH THE
CONTEXT
• DESIGN!
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 6
PRODUCT
MARKET
YOUR
PRODUCT
Your product is NOT “the product”
Your “Business Model” is the product
Remember
FACTOR
MARKET
So, Lets use the Business Model
Canvas?
12/27/2019 7© Sachidananda
So, Lets use the Business Model
Canvas?
12/27/2019 8© Sachidananda
So, Lets use the Business Model
Canvas?
12/27/2019 9© Sachidananda
So, Lets use the Business Model
Canvas?
12/27/2019 10© Sachidananda
So, Lets use the Business Model
Canvas?
12/27/2019 11© Sachidananda
So, Lets use the Business Model
Canvas?
12/27/2019 12© Sachidananda
So, Lets use the Business Model
Canvas?
12/27/2019 13© Sachidananda
So, Lets use the Business Model
Canvas?
12/27/2019 14© Sachidananda
So, Lets use the Business Model
Canvas?
12/27/2019 15© Sachidananda
ACTIVITY
12/27/2019 16© Sachidananda
12/27/2019 17© Sachidananda
12/27/2019 18© Sachidananda
Interpreting the outcomes...
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 19
Scenario
1
Scenario
2
Scenario
3
Knightian UncertaintyRiskPredictable
You know the distribution
and can clearly predict the
scenarios you could get
into – very little risk if at all
to operate in such a state
The distribution is unknown to
begin with, but one could follow
the draws to understand what
could come next. You could
then prepare for the outcomes
You do not know what is going
to come next in spite of multiple
attempts at the same thing.
Outcome is highly uncertain!
It is this sort of
uncertainty that we deal
with as entrepreneurs
LEAN START-UP
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 20
The Principles
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 21
1
Entrepreneurs
are
Eeverywhere
2
Entrepreneurshi
p is
Management
3
Validated
Learning
4
Build –Measure-
Learn
5
Innovation
Accounting
Identify the Riskiest Parts of your
business
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 22
Building a successful product is fundamentally about risk mitigation
For most parts, the solution is not what’s riskiest!
Problem/Solution Fit
1 Key Question: Do I have a problem worth solving?
• Is it something customers want? (must-have)
• Will they pay for it? If not, who will? (viable)
• Can it be solved? (feasible
Product/Market Fit
2
Key Question: Have I built something people want?
Scale
3
Key Question: How do I accelerate growth?
The Process
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 23
01 IDEA !
02 HYPOTHESIS
03 EXPERIMENTAL
DESIGN
04 EXPERIMENTATION
05 PIVOT OR
PERSEVERE?
6.b PERSEVERE
Do I have real evidence from my buyer
that this is compelling?
What are the key assumptions required to
make this business work?
How do I definitely prove or disprove the
assumption with minimum time or effort?
Am I reacting or am I focused on validating
my pivotal assumptions?
Pivot or Persevere
Experiment proves
hypothesis
6.a PIVOT
Experiment
s disprove
hypothesis
The MVP
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 24
The Iteration Meta-Pattern
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 25
Understanding
Problem
Defining
Solution
Validating
Qualitatively
Verifying
Quantitatively
Problem Solution Fit Product Market Fit
Pivoting - Optimize
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 26
Focus:
Experiments:
Growth
Optimizations
Focus:
Experiments:
Validated Learning
Pivots
Finding a plan that works Accelerating that plan
Validate Refine
Course Correction Efficiency
Your Goal:
Investor’s
Goal:
Growth
Growth
Your Goal:
Investor’s Goal:
Learning
Growth
Pick bold outcomes instead
of chasing incremental
improvements
Ideal time to raise funding
Problem/Solution Fit Product/Market Fit Scale
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 27
• Pre-set goals and opportunities
• Expected returns!
• Competition analysis
• Avoiding surprises
• Inevitable trends
What is learnable in
entrepreneurship?
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 28
Study the Expert Entrepreneurs helped identify 5 principles
Bird in Hand Principle - Start with your means. Don't wait for the perfect
opportunity. Start taking action, based on what you have readily available: who you are,
what you know, and who you know.
Affordable Loss Principle - Set affordable loss Evaluate opportunities based on
whether the downside is acceptable, rather than on the attractiveness of the predicted
upside.
Lemonade Principle - Leverage contingencies Embrace surprises that arise from
uncertain situations, remaining flexible rather than tethered to existing goals.
Crazy-Quilt Principle - Form partnerships Form partnerships with people and
organizations willing to make a real commitment to jointly creating the future--product, firm,
market--with you. Don't worry so much about competitive analyses and strategic planning.
Pilot in the Plane – Control vs Prediction If you can control something, you
don’t need to predict what the future would look like.
How differently do entrepreneurs think?
1. Bird in Hand Principle – Start with who you are, what you know and whom
you know, and not necessarily with a predetermined goal or a pre-envisioned
opportunity
2. Affordable Loss – Invest only what you can afford to loose
3. Crazy Quilt – Create an expanding network of self-selected stakeholders,
each of whom commits only what he or she can afford to loose. Focus on
partnerships rather than on competitors.
4. Lemonade – Be open to surprises and leverage them. Treat them as useful
inputs rather than hindrances to be avoided.
5. Pilot in the Plane – Co-create the future with things within your control and
with self-selected partners
If you use these principles you can shape your future and transform your
environment in ways that matter to you and your stakeholders.
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 29
How is this different from how Managers
think?
Effectual Causal
Start with your
means
Focus on your
downside risk
Leverage
Contingencie
s
Form
Partnerships
Control Vs
Predict
Pre-set goals
and
opportunities
Expected
Returns
Avoiding
Surprises
Competitive
analysis
Inevitable trends
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 30
Classic Causation Model from Marketing Textbooks
Process of Effectuation Used by Expert Entrepreneurs
SINGLE CUSTOMER
Segment Definition
Market Definition
Segmentation
Targeting
Positioning
Understand
Customer
Adding Segments/Partners
Def of one of many possible markets
Marketing Process Inversion
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 31
Who I am?
What I know?
Whom I know?
What Can I
Do?
Interaction
with others
Effectual
Stakeholder
Commitments
Who we are?
What we
know?
Whom we
know?
New
mean
s
Expanding cycle of resources
What can we
do?
(Affordable
loss)
New
Goals
Actual course
of action
possible
Converging cycle of constraints
New Markets
and New
Firms
The process!
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 32
Firm Life-Cycle and Entrepreneur’s
Career
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 33
Causal
Tethered to goals
and predictive
Effectual
Tethered to means
and non-predictive Time
Expert
entrepreneurs
do not always
manage to
bridge this gap
Expert
Entrepreneur
Startup
Firm
Large
Firm
NoviceEntrepreneur
R
e
s
o
u
r
c
e
s
Low
High
QUESTIONS
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 34
THANK YOU
12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 35
References:
1. Business Model Canvas: https://www.strategyzer.com/canvas/business-
model-canvas
2. Lean Canvas:
https://railsware.com/downloads/Lean%20Canvas%20Template.pdf
3. Customer Forces Canvas: https://leanstack.com/customer-forces-canvas.pdf
4. Value Proposition Canvas: https://www.strategyzer.com/canvas/value-
proposition-canvas
5. Product Canvas (Roman): http://www.romanpichler.com/wp-
content/uploads/2013/07/The_Product_Canvas.pdf
6. Product Canvas (Shardul): http://streetsmartproductmanager.com/product-
canvas/
7. Platform Value Canvas: http://platforminnovationkit.com/kit/
8. Platform Canvas: http://icsb.nl/artikelen/new-business-model-canvas-for-
digital-platforms/
9. Social Business Model Canvas (Tandemic):
http://www.socialbusinessmodelcanvas.com/ or
https://bmtoolbox.net/tools/social-business-model-canvas/

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BMC-LEAN-EFFECTUATION

  • 1. WHAT HOW 12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 1
  • 2. WHAT HOW Venture Idea Venture→ Plan of action! • Coherent • Consistent 12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 2
  • 3. 12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 3 CANVAS VISUAL TOOL FOR COMMUNICATION SELF TEAM OTHER STAKEHOLDERS QUICK SUMMARY TYPES
  • 4. 12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 4 TYPES PLATFORM SOCIAL COMMERCIAL PRODUCT SUB PROB SUB PROB
  • 5. 12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 5 BUSINES S PURPOSE COMMERCIA L SOCIAL NATURE PIPELINE PLATFORM THE ENTITY THE ACTIVITIES • OPERATES IN A CONTEXT • INTERACTS WITH THE CONTEXT • DESIGN!
  • 6. 12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 6 PRODUCT MARKET YOUR PRODUCT Your product is NOT “the product” Your “Business Model” is the product Remember FACTOR MARKET
  • 7. So, Lets use the Business Model Canvas? 12/27/2019 7© Sachidananda
  • 8. So, Lets use the Business Model Canvas? 12/27/2019 8© Sachidananda
  • 9. So, Lets use the Business Model Canvas? 12/27/2019 9© Sachidananda
  • 10. So, Lets use the Business Model Canvas? 12/27/2019 10© Sachidananda
  • 11. So, Lets use the Business Model Canvas? 12/27/2019 11© Sachidananda
  • 12. So, Lets use the Business Model Canvas? 12/27/2019 12© Sachidananda
  • 13. So, Lets use the Business Model Canvas? 12/27/2019 13© Sachidananda
  • 14. So, Lets use the Business Model Canvas? 12/27/2019 14© Sachidananda
  • 15. So, Lets use the Business Model Canvas? 12/27/2019 15© Sachidananda
  • 19. Interpreting the outcomes... 12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 19 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Knightian UncertaintyRiskPredictable You know the distribution and can clearly predict the scenarios you could get into – very little risk if at all to operate in such a state The distribution is unknown to begin with, but one could follow the draws to understand what could come next. You could then prepare for the outcomes You do not know what is going to come next in spite of multiple attempts at the same thing. Outcome is highly uncertain! It is this sort of uncertainty that we deal with as entrepreneurs
  • 20. LEAN START-UP 12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 20
  • 21. The Principles 12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 21 1 Entrepreneurs are Eeverywhere 2 Entrepreneurshi p is Management 3 Validated Learning 4 Build –Measure- Learn 5 Innovation Accounting
  • 22. Identify the Riskiest Parts of your business 12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 22 Building a successful product is fundamentally about risk mitigation For most parts, the solution is not what’s riskiest! Problem/Solution Fit 1 Key Question: Do I have a problem worth solving? • Is it something customers want? (must-have) • Will they pay for it? If not, who will? (viable) • Can it be solved? (feasible Product/Market Fit 2 Key Question: Have I built something people want? Scale 3 Key Question: How do I accelerate growth?
  • 23. The Process 12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 23 01 IDEA ! 02 HYPOTHESIS 03 EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN 04 EXPERIMENTATION 05 PIVOT OR PERSEVERE? 6.b PERSEVERE Do I have real evidence from my buyer that this is compelling? What are the key assumptions required to make this business work? How do I definitely prove or disprove the assumption with minimum time or effort? Am I reacting or am I focused on validating my pivotal assumptions? Pivot or Persevere Experiment proves hypothesis 6.a PIVOT Experiment s disprove hypothesis
  • 24. The MVP 12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 24
  • 25. The Iteration Meta-Pattern 12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 25 Understanding Problem Defining Solution Validating Qualitatively Verifying Quantitatively Problem Solution Fit Product Market Fit
  • 26. Pivoting - Optimize 12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 26 Focus: Experiments: Growth Optimizations Focus: Experiments: Validated Learning Pivots Finding a plan that works Accelerating that plan Validate Refine Course Correction Efficiency Your Goal: Investor’s Goal: Growth Growth Your Goal: Investor’s Goal: Learning Growth Pick bold outcomes instead of chasing incremental improvements Ideal time to raise funding Problem/Solution Fit Product/Market Fit Scale
  • 27. 12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 27 • Pre-set goals and opportunities • Expected returns! • Competition analysis • Avoiding surprises • Inevitable trends
  • 28. What is learnable in entrepreneurship? 12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 28 Study the Expert Entrepreneurs helped identify 5 principles Bird in Hand Principle - Start with your means. Don't wait for the perfect opportunity. Start taking action, based on what you have readily available: who you are, what you know, and who you know. Affordable Loss Principle - Set affordable loss Evaluate opportunities based on whether the downside is acceptable, rather than on the attractiveness of the predicted upside. Lemonade Principle - Leverage contingencies Embrace surprises that arise from uncertain situations, remaining flexible rather than tethered to existing goals. Crazy-Quilt Principle - Form partnerships Form partnerships with people and organizations willing to make a real commitment to jointly creating the future--product, firm, market--with you. Don't worry so much about competitive analyses and strategic planning. Pilot in the Plane – Control vs Prediction If you can control something, you don’t need to predict what the future would look like.
  • 29. How differently do entrepreneurs think? 1. Bird in Hand Principle – Start with who you are, what you know and whom you know, and not necessarily with a predetermined goal or a pre-envisioned opportunity 2. Affordable Loss – Invest only what you can afford to loose 3. Crazy Quilt – Create an expanding network of self-selected stakeholders, each of whom commits only what he or she can afford to loose. Focus on partnerships rather than on competitors. 4. Lemonade – Be open to surprises and leverage them. Treat them as useful inputs rather than hindrances to be avoided. 5. Pilot in the Plane – Co-create the future with things within your control and with self-selected partners If you use these principles you can shape your future and transform your environment in ways that matter to you and your stakeholders. 12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 29
  • 30. How is this different from how Managers think? Effectual Causal Start with your means Focus on your downside risk Leverage Contingencie s Form Partnerships Control Vs Predict Pre-set goals and opportunities Expected Returns Avoiding Surprises Competitive analysis Inevitable trends 12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 30
  • 31. Classic Causation Model from Marketing Textbooks Process of Effectuation Used by Expert Entrepreneurs SINGLE CUSTOMER Segment Definition Market Definition Segmentation Targeting Positioning Understand Customer Adding Segments/Partners Def of one of many possible markets Marketing Process Inversion 12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 31
  • 32. Who I am? What I know? Whom I know? What Can I Do? Interaction with others Effectual Stakeholder Commitments Who we are? What we know? Whom we know? New mean s Expanding cycle of resources What can we do? (Affordable loss) New Goals Actual course of action possible Converging cycle of constraints New Markets and New Firms The process! 12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 32
  • 33. Firm Life-Cycle and Entrepreneur’s Career 12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 33 Causal Tethered to goals and predictive Effectual Tethered to means and non-predictive Time Expert entrepreneurs do not always manage to bridge this gap Expert Entrepreneur Startup Firm Large Firm NoviceEntrepreneur R e s o u r c e s Low High
  • 35. 12/27/2019 © Sachidananda 35 References: 1. Business Model Canvas: https://www.strategyzer.com/canvas/business- model-canvas 2. Lean Canvas: https://railsware.com/downloads/Lean%20Canvas%20Template.pdf 3. Customer Forces Canvas: https://leanstack.com/customer-forces-canvas.pdf 4. Value Proposition Canvas: https://www.strategyzer.com/canvas/value- proposition-canvas 5. Product Canvas (Roman): http://www.romanpichler.com/wp- content/uploads/2013/07/The_Product_Canvas.pdf 6. Product Canvas (Shardul): http://streetsmartproductmanager.com/product- canvas/ 7. Platform Value Canvas: http://platforminnovationkit.com/kit/ 8. Platform Canvas: http://icsb.nl/artikelen/new-business-model-canvas-for- digital-platforms/ 9. Social Business Model Canvas (Tandemic): http://www.socialbusinessmodelcanvas.com/ or https://bmtoolbox.net/tools/social-business-model-canvas/