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ENTERING ELECTRIC VEHICLES MARKET
CONCEPTICON MOTORS



                                                HA team
                                   BCG Strategy Cup 2012
        Pavlína Froňková, Eva Peterková, Peter Zildner, Miroslav Havela
E2Day
  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                                                                                                HA-team


1500                  Electric vehicles market                                                    Centralizing all assembly
                                                         Entering the segment of                  in Shanghai decreases the
                      indicates great                    electric city cars with E2Day            overall costs, with added
                      potential, with                                                             benefit of simplifying the
1000                                                     promises the NPV of:                     value creation process
                      1 440 758 cars sold in
                      2021 and CAGR of 26%                      99,52 M EUR                       EU
500
                      over the next 10 years.                                                     USA          Shanghai
                                                         This NPV indicates that
                                                                                                  Jap
                                                         E2Day is a profitable
                                                                                                  China
   0                                                     investment into EVs.
       2012 2021                                                                                        NPV +134 M


 Battery is the most expensive   China is going to be the         The small city segment in the   Small/Medium cars
 component of the whole car,     world’s 2nd largest market       USA causes low sales and        segment has potential for
 thus any savings related to     in EVs.                          negative DCF, resulting in      further expansion into
 the battery significantly       If Concepticon increased its     reducing NPV. It is             EV’s, as it constitutes
 increase overall margin.        low market share here (5%)       recommended not to launch       ~50% of whole EV market.
                                 to 10%, sales would grow         there.
                                 fast.
                                 3                                                        US
                                                                                                                             S/M
                                 2                                                        Japan
                                                                                          China
                                 1                                                                                           City
                      battery                                                             EU
                       63%       0
                                                                                                   2012 2015 2018 2021
                                     EU     US   Japan China
       NPV +617 M                         NPV +31 M                        NPV +67 M                     NPV +178 M

 BCG Strategy Cup 2012                    Concepticon: Entering the EV market                                          2/9
E2Day
       EVS MARKET INDICATES GREAT POTENTIAL                                                                                            HA-team



 3,8 % CAGR of
 car market *

                                                                                             2012    2021
                                                                                                                                       2012    2021
                                                                 2012   2021
                    26 % CAGR
                    in EV market                                                                                      2012   2021




 21 % CAGR of
                                                                                                    EVs sold
 EVs penetration
                                                                                                             2012                    2021
                                                                                    EU                      75 544                  537 284
  Increasing penetration of EVs into city                                           US                      30 902                  334 027
  and S/M segment drives market size from                                         Japan                     26 232                  203 868
  today’s 0,18 M to 1440,76 M in 2021
                                                                                  China                     47 802                  365 579
  worldwide.
                                                                                  total                     180 480                 1440 758
* In segments with significant presence of EVs in next 10 Y
      BCG Strategy Cup 2012                            Concepticon: Entering the EV market                                                3/9
E2DAY IS PROFITABLE WAY TO ENTER THE MARKET,                                                                                        E2Day
                                                                                                                                         HA-team
      INCOMES DRIVEN BY EU AND JAPAN

                             Investment                      EU                       US              Japan           China                    NPV
Contribution to NPV              -1057,62                854,07 M                -46,70 M         402,55 M            -52,79 M            99,52 M
                         *
      margin                                               5 449                     2 495             9 774            847

  market size                                            297 896                 72 543               188 577         197 062

 market share                                               20%                       5%               10%               5%

                                                                                               200
 Driven by positive results in EU and Japan, E2Day generates the                                 0
 NPV of 99,52 M EUR.
                                                                                              -200

                                                                                              -400

  China is unprofitable because of small market share and low                                 -600
  margin, while the negative CF in the US is a result of low size                             -800
  and minor share of the market there.                                                                                contribution to NPV by region
                                                                                             -1 000

* data for 2021; margin per car sold, market size and share given for city segment           -1 200
                                                                                                       invest.   EU    US     Japan    China     NPV

     BCG Strategy Cup 2012                               Concepticon: Entering the EV market                                                   4/9
E2Day
THERE IS A ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT                                                  HA-team


Improvements in value creation are possible,
ranging from streamlining current operations to strategy refocusing         Contributions
                                                                            to NPV

                                            Assembly centralised in
Streamline value chain                                                        +134 M
                                            Shanghai

E2Day characteristics
                                            15 % saved in COGS                +617 M
modification


                                            Boost market share in China        +31 M
Change strategies
in regional markets
                                            Withdraw from US city segment      +67 M


Tap the S/M segment                         Launch S/M segment car            +178 M


BCG Strategy Cup 2012            Concepticon: Entering the EV market                5/9
STREAMLINE VALUE CHAIN                                                                             E2Day
                                                                                                  HA-team
TO GAIN SAVINGS OF 134 M
   manufacturing                     shipping                            assembly          Generates
                                                                                           4189,68 M
                                                                                           in COGS
     in Shanghai                  into regions                      in each region         over next 10 Y




           manufacturing and assembly                                    shipping          Centralisation
                                                                                           lowers COGS* to
                                                                                           4055,92 M
           centralised at Shanghai plant                                into regions       over next 10 Y




  +95,45 M              +2,83 M                    +34,96                    +0,77 M        = 133,76 M
     for EU              for US                   for Japan                  for China     increase of NPV


All investments to assembly capacity diverted to Shanghai.                               * Overall COGS between
                                                                                           2013 and 2021,
This offers significant savings given the labour intensity of assembly.                    discounted for 2012



BCG Strategy Cup 2012             Concepticon: Entering the EV market                                6/9
MODIFICATION OF BATTERY INCREASES MARGIN                                                                                           E2Day
                                                                                                                                      HA-team
    & KEEPS US COMPETITIVE
                                                                                     battery        consumption      range            savings
  Battery is main driver in costs of components                                      [kWh]          [kWh/100km]       [km]             [EUR]
         frame
          29%                                                      Mitsubishi           16             13,88          115                 -

                                                                  Think Global          23             23,2            99                 -

 charger                                                             E2Day              20              12            167                 -
   2%
motor                                                           E2Day modified          14              12            117        +3540 per car
  4% power                              battery
   electronics                           63%
       2%                                                       Using 14 kWh battery still gives E2Day the very best range in the
                                                            *
                                                                market segment, but allows for significant cost reduction.
  100%                                        margin;
                          margin;             12,42%            + still the best range on the                - May have a negative impact on
                           0,9%                                 market                                       market share
   75%

                          COGS; 68%           COGS; 57%         + optimizing the cost of the most            - Competition might catch up
   50%                                                          expensive component                          more easily
                                              Sales cost;
                                                                => major impact on overall
                                                 10%            profitability
   25%

                                              VAT, 21%                              617 M increase in NPV
   0%
                 before               after                                                                            * Both graphs are for EU 2013

   BCG Strategy Cup 2012                          Concepticon: Entering the EV market                                                         7/9
FOCUS ON THE SECOND LARGEST MARKET                                                                                           E2Day
                                                                                                                               HA-team
   TO BOOST SALES
                                                                                  Gross margin in China 2021 is 2 794 EUR per car,
                                                                                  promising steady CF if number of units sold rises
                    *       Margin - OK
Low DCF in China,                                                                 3
   only 11M                                                market size
                                                                                  2
                          Units sold – not OK
                                                                                  1
                                                          market share            0
                                                                                             EU           US          Japan        China
                                                                                                         2nd
                                                                                      China is the world’s   most important market for EVs
China’s minor contribution to NPV is driven by                                        with almost 2M units sold between 2012 and 2021
small presence of Concepticon on the regional
                                                                                  20%
market in China.                                                                                                                    EU
                                                                                  15%

Additional investment in market research and                                      10%                                               Japan
marketing campaign in China in order to increase                                      5%                                            China, US
overall brand awareness and E2Day’s perceived                                         0%

value on Chinese market. (10 M)
                                                                                      E2Day market share in China is only 5%
                                                                                      Potential of sizeable, high growth market is untapped

                                                                     *
                                                                         * Assuming 10M EUR additional investment in marketing in 2012
                Increase in NPV + 31 M                                   and usage of 14 kWh batteries as suggested in previous slide.

  BCG Strategy Cup 2012                         Concepticon: Entering the EV market                                                8/9
ADAPTING STRATEGY TO REGIONAL SPECIFICITIES IN THE USA                                                                                                E2Day
                                                                                                                                                            HA-team
       & LAUNCHING S/M SEGMENT MODEL
                                                                                      600
                                                                                                                                               Not launching
                                                                                      500                no of EVs sold in 2021 by segment
 Large distances in the US                                                                                                                     E2Day in the US
                                                                                      400
                                                                                                                                               results in
                                                                                      300
                                                                                                                                               increase of NPV
 Traditional preference
                                                                                      200                                                      by 66,7 M *
                                                                                      100                                               S/M
 for larger vehicles                                                                                                                    city   * = 46,7 in DCF
 by local customers                                                                     0
                                                                                              EU        US        Japan      China
                                                                                                                                                   + 20 in investment to
                                                                                                                                                   assembly capacity


1400
           Market size by segments                                            ½ of EVs market                Launch small/medium               benefits:
1200       for EU, US and China:                                              potential untouched            EV in EU, US and China
                                                                                                                                               + NPV = 178,2 M
1000                                                                                                                                             for Concepticon
                                                                                        Assumptions:                                             in S/M EVs
800
                                                                                        • Concepticon market share same as in city
                                                                                                                                               + Concepticon EVs
600                                                                                       segment
                                                                                                                                                  market in all four
                                                                                        • Additional R&D investments 50% of E2Day                 regions
400                                                                                       R&D
                                                                               S/M      • Price set to match competition in segment            + presence in both
200
                                                                               city     • Margin and FC the same as in the city segment           important
  0                                                                                     • Capacity investments needed are the same as             segments of EVs
                                                                                          with the city segment
        2012
               2013
                      2014
                             2015
                                    2016
                                           2017
                                                  2018
                                                         2019
                                                                2020
                                                                       2021




       BCG Strategy Cup 2012                                                          Concepticon: Entering the EV market                                        9/9

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BCG Strategy Cup 2012 2nd place

  • 1. ENTERING ELECTRIC VEHICLES MARKET CONCEPTICON MOTORS HA team BCG Strategy Cup 2012 Pavlína Froňková, Eva Peterková, Peter Zildner, Miroslav Havela
  • 2. E2Day EXECUTIVE SUMMARY HA-team 1500 Electric vehicles market Centralizing all assembly Entering the segment of in Shanghai decreases the indicates great electric city cars with E2Day overall costs, with added potential, with benefit of simplifying the 1000 promises the NPV of: value creation process 1 440 758 cars sold in 2021 and CAGR of 26% 99,52 M EUR EU 500 over the next 10 years. USA Shanghai This NPV indicates that Jap E2Day is a profitable China 0 investment into EVs. 2012 2021 NPV +134 M Battery is the most expensive China is going to be the The small city segment in the Small/Medium cars component of the whole car, world’s 2nd largest market USA causes low sales and segment has potential for thus any savings related to in EVs. negative DCF, resulting in further expansion into the battery significantly If Concepticon increased its reducing NPV. It is EV’s, as it constitutes increase overall margin. low market share here (5%) recommended not to launch ~50% of whole EV market. to 10%, sales would grow there. fast. 3 US S/M 2 Japan China 1 City battery EU 63% 0 2012 2015 2018 2021 EU US Japan China NPV +617 M NPV +31 M NPV +67 M NPV +178 M BCG Strategy Cup 2012 Concepticon: Entering the EV market 2/9
  • 3. E2Day EVS MARKET INDICATES GREAT POTENTIAL HA-team 3,8 % CAGR of car market * 2012 2021 2012 2021 2012 2021 26 % CAGR in EV market 2012 2021 21 % CAGR of EVs sold EVs penetration 2012 2021 EU 75 544 537 284 Increasing penetration of EVs into city US 30 902 334 027 and S/M segment drives market size from Japan 26 232 203 868 today’s 0,18 M to 1440,76 M in 2021 China 47 802 365 579 worldwide. total 180 480 1440 758 * In segments with significant presence of EVs in next 10 Y BCG Strategy Cup 2012 Concepticon: Entering the EV market 3/9
  • 4. E2DAY IS PROFITABLE WAY TO ENTER THE MARKET, E2Day HA-team INCOMES DRIVEN BY EU AND JAPAN Investment EU US Japan China NPV Contribution to NPV -1057,62 854,07 M -46,70 M 402,55 M -52,79 M 99,52 M * margin 5 449 2 495 9 774 847 market size 297 896 72 543 188 577 197 062 market share 20% 5% 10% 5% 200 Driven by positive results in EU and Japan, E2Day generates the 0 NPV of 99,52 M EUR. -200 -400 China is unprofitable because of small market share and low -600 margin, while the negative CF in the US is a result of low size -800 and minor share of the market there. contribution to NPV by region -1 000 * data for 2021; margin per car sold, market size and share given for city segment -1 200 invest. EU US Japan China NPV BCG Strategy Cup 2012 Concepticon: Entering the EV market 4/9
  • 5. E2Day THERE IS A ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT HA-team Improvements in value creation are possible, ranging from streamlining current operations to strategy refocusing Contributions to NPV Assembly centralised in Streamline value chain +134 M Shanghai E2Day characteristics 15 % saved in COGS +617 M modification Boost market share in China +31 M Change strategies in regional markets Withdraw from US city segment +67 M Tap the S/M segment Launch S/M segment car +178 M BCG Strategy Cup 2012 Concepticon: Entering the EV market 5/9
  • 6. STREAMLINE VALUE CHAIN E2Day HA-team TO GAIN SAVINGS OF 134 M manufacturing shipping assembly Generates 4189,68 M in COGS in Shanghai into regions in each region over next 10 Y manufacturing and assembly shipping Centralisation lowers COGS* to 4055,92 M centralised at Shanghai plant into regions over next 10 Y +95,45 M +2,83 M +34,96 +0,77 M = 133,76 M for EU for US for Japan for China increase of NPV All investments to assembly capacity diverted to Shanghai. * Overall COGS between 2013 and 2021, This offers significant savings given the labour intensity of assembly. discounted for 2012 BCG Strategy Cup 2012 Concepticon: Entering the EV market 6/9
  • 7. MODIFICATION OF BATTERY INCREASES MARGIN E2Day HA-team & KEEPS US COMPETITIVE battery consumption range savings Battery is main driver in costs of components [kWh] [kWh/100km] [km] [EUR] frame 29% Mitsubishi 16 13,88 115 - Think Global 23 23,2 99 - charger E2Day 20 12 167 - 2% motor E2Day modified 14 12 117 +3540 per car 4% power battery electronics 63% 2% Using 14 kWh battery still gives E2Day the very best range in the * market segment, but allows for significant cost reduction. 100% margin; margin; 12,42% + still the best range on the - May have a negative impact on 0,9% market market share 75% COGS; 68% COGS; 57% + optimizing the cost of the most - Competition might catch up 50% expensive component more easily Sales cost; => major impact on overall 10% profitability 25% VAT, 21% 617 M increase in NPV 0% before after * Both graphs are for EU 2013 BCG Strategy Cup 2012 Concepticon: Entering the EV market 7/9
  • 8. FOCUS ON THE SECOND LARGEST MARKET E2Day HA-team TO BOOST SALES Gross margin in China 2021 is 2 794 EUR per car, promising steady CF if number of units sold rises * Margin - OK Low DCF in China, 3 only 11M market size 2 Units sold – not OK 1 market share 0 EU US Japan China 2nd China is the world’s most important market for EVs China’s minor contribution to NPV is driven by with almost 2M units sold between 2012 and 2021 small presence of Concepticon on the regional 20% market in China. EU 15% Additional investment in market research and 10% Japan marketing campaign in China in order to increase 5% China, US overall brand awareness and E2Day’s perceived 0% value on Chinese market. (10 M) E2Day market share in China is only 5% Potential of sizeable, high growth market is untapped * * Assuming 10M EUR additional investment in marketing in 2012 Increase in NPV + 31 M and usage of 14 kWh batteries as suggested in previous slide. BCG Strategy Cup 2012 Concepticon: Entering the EV market 8/9
  • 9. ADAPTING STRATEGY TO REGIONAL SPECIFICITIES IN THE USA E2Day HA-team & LAUNCHING S/M SEGMENT MODEL 600 Not launching 500 no of EVs sold in 2021 by segment Large distances in the US E2Day in the US 400 results in 300 increase of NPV Traditional preference 200 by 66,7 M * 100 S/M for larger vehicles city * = 46,7 in DCF by local customers 0 EU US Japan China + 20 in investment to assembly capacity 1400 Market size by segments ½ of EVs market Launch small/medium benefits: 1200 for EU, US and China: potential untouched EV in EU, US and China + NPV = 178,2 M 1000 for Concepticon Assumptions: in S/M EVs 800 • Concepticon market share same as in city + Concepticon EVs 600 segment market in all four • Additional R&D investments 50% of E2Day regions 400 R&D S/M • Price set to match competition in segment + presence in both 200 city • Margin and FC the same as in the city segment important 0 • Capacity investments needed are the same as segments of EVs with the city segment 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 BCG Strategy Cup 2012 Concepticon: Entering the EV market 9/9