This document discusses using polynomial growth models to gauge startup growth trajectories. It provides examples of Amazon's revenue growth, which was polynomial rather than linear or exponential. The author explains that early growth should come from discovering and saturating different marketing channels. An example is given of their startup's growth from optimizing channels like AdWords, Facebook ads, content marketing, and SEO landing pages. The key takeaways are that marketing is difficult due to many failures, but the mechanics of polynomial growth are easy by testing channels and measuring results.

1. Alex Moore
CEO
@awmoore
baydin | 2013
Polynomial Growth
How to use Calculus 101 to
gauge your startup’s early
growth trajectory.

2. VC Math is a Funny Thing

3. VC Math is a Funny Thing

4. VC Math is a Funny Thing
The next
Facebook!
Lifestyle Business.
Yawn.

5. Your startup’s user base will not
look like either of these

6. Your startup’s user base will not
look like either of these UNLESS
• Your product is a free viral consumer app with
network effects (why are you here?)
• Something is wrong

7. A Real-World Example: Amazon
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1997 2013

8. Not Linear
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1997 2013

9. Not Exponential Either
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1997 2013

10. Why it matters
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Exponential
Growth
Amazon
Revenue
Projections

11. Boomerang: Not Linear
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12. Not Exponential Either
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July
2010

13. Marketing Channel discovery and
saturation should dominate your
early growth.

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Marketing Channels
AdWords

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Marketing Channels
AdWords FB Ad

16. baydin | 2013
0
500
1000
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Marketing Channels
AdWords FB Ad Slideshare SEO Landing FB Tweak Banner Ad

17. baydin | 2013
1 2 3 4 5 6
POLYNOMIALGROWTH!

18. Boomerang Daily New Users
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19. baydin | 2013

20. Some channels that worked
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Chrome Web
Store
Email
Marketing
Infographic SEO Landing Pages

21. Chrome Web Store
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• Up to 12,000 users per day when featured
• Consistent 400 users per day

22. Email Marketing
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23. Email Marketing
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• Search + Direct traffic increase due to user emails:
• 55%
• 24%
• 18%
• 12%
• 6%
• Super Cheap
#1 Tactical Tip: Send More (High-Quality) Email!

24. Content
Marketing
Borrow someone else’s
audience
Great lift (25k visits) but not
much sticking power
$1200 + 4 days of engineer
time

25. SEO Landing Pages
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• Found 20 good keywords with AdWords + Moz
tools
• Seeded with AdWords to test conversion rate
• Analyzed search terms to find other opportunities
• Fixed cost – additional traffic is free and growing

26. SEO Landing Page Traffic
baydin | 2013

27. Marketing is hard because of Failure
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• Video (clickthrough rate too low)
• Display Ads (4% conversion to download)
• AdWords (low search volume)
• Facebook Ads (only 3rd world clicks were cheap)
• Domaining (low pagerank because sites too new)

28. Mechanics of polynomial growth are easy
baydin | 2013
1. Pick a customer acquisition channel
See DMC’s AARRR slides for channel ideas
Spend at least one month running experiments
2. Measure the results.
Invest more? Invest the same? Stop investing?
3. Pick another customer acquisition channel

29. baydin | 2013
If your growth does not yet look polynomial:
Draft or hire someone to focus on marketing!
tiny.cc/polynomialgrowth
Alex Moore
Baydin
@awmoore

30. My Growth Looks Different

31. Raising Money
baydin | 2013
1. The illusion of exponential growth is key to
attracting investors.
2. Your lever is your marketing budget. Expect to
lose money overall creating this illusion.
3. Don’t believe your own bullshit!

32. Have not hit Product-Market Fit
baydin | 2013
1. Look at conversion metrics
2. Talk to your customers
3. Iterate on your product