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© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
25 September 2018
Think Big: Experimenting with Data
A hypothesis based approach for experimenting with data
Facilitators: Vicky Falconer & Toni Knowlson
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
Agenda
Time Section Description
5 min Welcome Introduction, agenda and house rules
5 min Approach for the Day Outline of key principles and ways of working for the day
30 min Morning Energiser – Norbert’s Challenge Start to experiment with a challenge we all face…
30 min A Culture of Experimentation
Introduction to conducting an experiment, importance of
experimenting within organisations and core principles required to
experiment successfully
20 min Case Study – Unicorn Air Challenge Walkthrough of the experimentation method in action
50 min Make it Real – Your Challenge Create your own experiment
5 min Wrap up Next steps, close
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
Approach for the day
Today we encourage you to…
Change up your
thinking
Stay on track Try new
things
Have funGo with the
flow
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
Morning Energiser
– Norbert’s Challenge
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
Purpose
The purpose of Norbert’s challenge is to…
Alter your
perspective
Try agile ways of
working
Experience testing
and failing fast
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
“Why are people always
running late for meetings?”
Identify Challenge:
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
State Question:
“How can we get people to
attend our meetings on time?”
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
Formulate Hypothesis:
“If there was an alternative
way to tell time, then people
would be more punctual to
meetings”
(An educated guess about something in the world around
you; testable either by an experiment or observation)
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
Define what measureable success looks like…
The new way of telling time
encourages people to be
punctual to meetings
Meeting punctuality increases by
5% over the next month
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
Help Norbert solve his challenge by proving /
disproving his hypothesis
“If there was an alternative way
to tell time, then people would
be more punctual to meetings”
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
New Hypothesis:
“If we pay people $5 to attend
meetings on time, then people
would be more punctual to
meetings”
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
Experimenting is really not rocket science…
State
Question
Formulate
Hypothesis
Identify
Challenge
Define Hypothesis
Analyse
Results
Draw
Conclusions
Conduct Experiment
Run TestsDefine Tests
Design Experiment
“What does measurable success look like?” “What did we learn and what happens next?”“What data do we have and what data do we need?”
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
Quote
“To invent you have to experiment, and if you know
in advance that it’s going to work, it’s not an
experiment”
- Jeff Bezos
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
A Culture of Experimentation
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
Credits:
Human After All:
www.humanafterall.com.au
Data Machine:
https://dribbble.com/shots/3687258-Data-machine
Freepix:
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/freepik
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/freepik
Smash Icons:
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/smashicons
Geotaatah:
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/geotatah
Idea Studio:
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/photo3idea-studio
Kawai:
https://www.ohmydollz.com/?p=fiche&pseudo=kawai95130
Animated Gif:
https://giphy.com/gifs/motionaddicts-animated-gif-motion-addicts-DS89v1NqpzCqA
https://giphy.com/gifs/processing-sphere-IPrjvZM5dMBdm
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/becris
My Name Pong:
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/mynamepong
Becris:
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/becris
Pause 08:
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/pause08
Ddara:
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/ddara
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/ddara
Surang:
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/surang
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/surang
Eucalyp:
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/eucalyp
Test Tube:
https://dribbble.com/shots/4900928-Test-Tube
From 3 months…
The story of Fonterra
To 48 hours…
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
Organisations that experiment…
Trust the data
Show and tell
Define what
success looks
like from the
start
Stay curious
Test and fail fast
Alter
perspective
Build a shared
commitment
Remain flexible
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
Case Study
– Unicorn Air Challenge
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
Experimenting is really not rocket science…
State
Question
Formulate
Hypothesis
Identify
Challenge
Define Hypothesis
“What does measurable success look like?” “What data do we have and what data do we need?”
Analyse
Results
Draw
Conclusions
Conduct Experiment
Run TestsDefine Tests
Design Experiment
“What did we learn and what happens next?”
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
Conducting your Experiment
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
Why? What? How?
Identify 2 challenges you / your organisation is
currently facing..
“Why is Unicorn
Air spending so
much on fees?”
?“Why are people
always running late for
meetings?”
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
How? What?
State 2 questions for your challenges…
“How can Unicorn
Air capture a
greater market
share of non-loyal
business
customers?”
?“How can we get
people to attend our
meetings on time?”
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
If ___________(cause), then ____________(effect)
Formulate 2 hypotheses for your challenges…
“If late passengers
were re-seated on
to future flights,
then Unicorn Air
could achieve
savings in Airport
enforced late fees”
?“If there was an
alternative way to tell
time, then people
would be more
punctual to meetings”
A hypothesis is an educated, testable prediction about what will happen
Criteria of a good hypothesis :
• Is it clear and understandable?
• Does it explain what you expect to happen?
• Can at least one clear prediction be made
from the hypothesis?
• Is it testable? Can you prove or disprove it?
• Is it safe and ethical (creepy factor)?
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
Success looks like…
What does measureable success look like for your 2
hypotheses?
10% increase in
customer satisfaction
5% increase in
market share across
non loyal business
travellers
?The new way of telling
time encourages
people be punctual to
meetings
Meeting punctuality
increases by 5% over
the next month
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
Choose 1 Hypothesis to test…
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
Does? Will? Can?
Define a minimum of 8 tests to test your hypothesis…
Does a large non loyal
business traveller segment
exist?
Who is likely to be wait?
Do customers respond
positively to app?
Which customers are running
late from the Melbourne to
Sydney route?
Does weather impact
customers being late?
?Does the new watch face
help people be more
punctual? - why and why
not?
What does this current
group think?
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
What data exists?
What data is missing?
What data can add value?
What data do you have and what data you need to test
your hypothesis?
Customer data
Flight path data
Non loyal customer status data
Unicorn app location data
Uber data
Fare class data
Seat occupancy availability data
Weather data
Late customer interviews
Observe late check-in with app
Observe late check-in without app
?Customer Data
Location Data
Market Data
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
How did your experiment go?
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
What’s next…
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
Becoming a change agent…
Experiment it…
+ Pilot it…
+ Produce it…
= Radical
Change
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
What now…
Creating a culture of experimentation
Conduct an experiment in the next 2 weeks
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
Thanks for joining us today
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
Credits:
Human After All:
www.humanafterall.com.au
Data Machine:
https://dribbble.com/shots/3687258-Data-machine
Freepix:
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/freepik
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/freepik
Smash Icons:
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/smashicons
Geotaatah:
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/geotatah
Idea Studio:
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/photo3idea-studio
Kawai:
https://www.ohmydollz.com/?p=fiche&pseudo=kawai95130
Animated Gif:
https://giphy.com/gifs/motionaddicts-animated-gif-motion-addicts-DS89v1NqpzCqA
https://giphy.com/gifs/processing-sphere-IPrjvZM5dMBdm
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/becris
My Name Pong:
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/mynamepong
Becris:
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/becris
Pause 08:
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/pause08
Ddara:
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/ddara
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/ddara
Surang:
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/surang
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/surang
Eucalyp:
https://www.flaticon.com/authors/eucalyp
Test Tube:
https://dribbble.com/shots/4900928-Test-Tube

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AWS Think Big Workshop: Experimenting with Data

  • 1. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark 25 September 2018 Think Big: Experimenting with Data A hypothesis based approach for experimenting with data Facilitators: Vicky Falconer & Toni Knowlson
  • 2. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark Agenda Time Section Description 5 min Welcome Introduction, agenda and house rules 5 min Approach for the Day Outline of key principles and ways of working for the day 30 min Morning Energiser – Norbert’s Challenge Start to experiment with a challenge we all face… 30 min A Culture of Experimentation Introduction to conducting an experiment, importance of experimenting within organisations and core principles required to experiment successfully 20 min Case Study – Unicorn Air Challenge Walkthrough of the experimentation method in action 50 min Make it Real – Your Challenge Create your own experiment 5 min Wrap up Next steps, close
  • 3. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark Approach for the day Today we encourage you to… Change up your thinking Stay on track Try new things Have funGo with the flow
  • 4. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark Morning Energiser – Norbert’s Challenge
  • 5. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark Purpose The purpose of Norbert’s challenge is to… Alter your perspective Try agile ways of working Experience testing and failing fast
  • 6. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark “Why are people always running late for meetings?” Identify Challenge:
  • 7. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark State Question: “How can we get people to attend our meetings on time?”
  • 8. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark Formulate Hypothesis: “If there was an alternative way to tell time, then people would be more punctual to meetings” (An educated guess about something in the world around you; testable either by an experiment or observation)
  • 9. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark Define what measureable success looks like… The new way of telling time encourages people to be punctual to meetings Meeting punctuality increases by 5% over the next month
  • 10. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark Help Norbert solve his challenge by proving / disproving his hypothesis “If there was an alternative way to tell time, then people would be more punctual to meetings”
  • 11. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark New Hypothesis: “If we pay people $5 to attend meetings on time, then people would be more punctual to meetings”
  • 12. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark Experimenting is really not rocket science… State Question Formulate Hypothesis Identify Challenge Define Hypothesis Analyse Results Draw Conclusions Conduct Experiment Run TestsDefine Tests Design Experiment “What does measurable success look like?” “What did we learn and what happens next?”“What data do we have and what data do we need?”
  • 13. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark Quote “To invent you have to experiment, and if you know in advance that it’s going to work, it’s not an experiment” - Jeff Bezos
  • 14. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark A Culture of Experimentation
  • 15. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark Credits: Human After All: www.humanafterall.com.au Data Machine: https://dribbble.com/shots/3687258-Data-machine Freepix: https://www.flaticon.com/authors/freepik https://www.flaticon.com/authors/freepik Smash Icons: https://www.flaticon.com/authors/smashicons Geotaatah: https://www.flaticon.com/authors/geotatah Idea Studio: https://www.flaticon.com/authors/photo3idea-studio Kawai: https://www.ohmydollz.com/?p=fiche&pseudo=kawai95130 Animated Gif: https://giphy.com/gifs/motionaddicts-animated-gif-motion-addicts-DS89v1NqpzCqA https://giphy.com/gifs/processing-sphere-IPrjvZM5dMBdm https://www.flaticon.com/authors/becris My Name Pong: https://www.flaticon.com/authors/mynamepong Becris: https://www.flaticon.com/authors/becris Pause 08: https://www.flaticon.com/authors/pause08 Ddara: https://www.flaticon.com/authors/ddara https://www.flaticon.com/authors/ddara Surang: https://www.flaticon.com/authors/surang https://www.flaticon.com/authors/surang Eucalyp: https://www.flaticon.com/authors/eucalyp Test Tube: https://dribbble.com/shots/4900928-Test-Tube From 3 months… The story of Fonterra To 48 hours…
  • 16. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark
  • 17. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark Organisations that experiment… Trust the data Show and tell Define what success looks like from the start Stay curious Test and fail fast Alter perspective Build a shared commitment Remain flexible
  • 18. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark Case Study – Unicorn Air Challenge
  • 19. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark Experimenting is really not rocket science… State Question Formulate Hypothesis Identify Challenge Define Hypothesis “What does measurable success look like?” “What data do we have and what data do we need?” Analyse Results Draw Conclusions Conduct Experiment Run TestsDefine Tests Design Experiment “What did we learn and what happens next?”
  • 20. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark Conducting your Experiment
  • 21. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark Why? What? How? Identify 2 challenges you / your organisation is currently facing.. “Why is Unicorn Air spending so much on fees?” ?“Why are people always running late for meetings?”
  • 22. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark How? What? State 2 questions for your challenges… “How can Unicorn Air capture a greater market share of non-loyal business customers?” ?“How can we get people to attend our meetings on time?”
  • 23. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark If ___________(cause), then ____________(effect) Formulate 2 hypotheses for your challenges… “If late passengers were re-seated on to future flights, then Unicorn Air could achieve savings in Airport enforced late fees” ?“If there was an alternative way to tell time, then people would be more punctual to meetings” A hypothesis is an educated, testable prediction about what will happen Criteria of a good hypothesis : • Is it clear and understandable? • Does it explain what you expect to happen? • Can at least one clear prediction be made from the hypothesis? • Is it testable? Can you prove or disprove it? • Is it safe and ethical (creepy factor)?
  • 24. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark Success looks like… What does measureable success look like for your 2 hypotheses? 10% increase in customer satisfaction 5% increase in market share across non loyal business travellers ?The new way of telling time encourages people be punctual to meetings Meeting punctuality increases by 5% over the next month
  • 25. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark Choose 1 Hypothesis to test…
  • 26. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark Does? Will? Can? Define a minimum of 8 tests to test your hypothesis… Does a large non loyal business traveller segment exist? Who is likely to be wait? Do customers respond positively to app? Which customers are running late from the Melbourne to Sydney route? Does weather impact customers being late? ?Does the new watch face help people be more punctual? - why and why not? What does this current group think?
  • 27. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark What data exists? What data is missing? What data can add value? What data do you have and what data you need to test your hypothesis? Customer data Flight path data Non loyal customer status data Unicorn app location data Uber data Fare class data Seat occupancy availability data Weather data Late customer interviews Observe late check-in with app Observe late check-in without app ?Customer Data Location Data Market Data
  • 28. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark How did your experiment go?
  • 29. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark What’s next…
  • 30. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark Becoming a change agent… Experiment it… + Pilot it… + Produce it… = Radical Change
  • 31. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark What now… Creating a culture of experimentation Conduct an experiment in the next 2 weeks
  • 32. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark Thanks for joining us today
  • 33. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its Affiliates. All rights reserved. Amazon Confidential and Trademark Credits: Human After All: www.humanafterall.com.au Data Machine: https://dribbble.com/shots/3687258-Data-machine Freepix: https://www.flaticon.com/authors/freepik https://www.flaticon.com/authors/freepik Smash Icons: https://www.flaticon.com/authors/smashicons Geotaatah: https://www.flaticon.com/authors/geotatah Idea Studio: https://www.flaticon.com/authors/photo3idea-studio Kawai: https://www.ohmydollz.com/?p=fiche&pseudo=kawai95130 Animated Gif: https://giphy.com/gifs/motionaddicts-animated-gif-motion-addicts-DS89v1NqpzCqA https://giphy.com/gifs/processing-sphere-IPrjvZM5dMBdm https://www.flaticon.com/authors/becris My Name Pong: https://www.flaticon.com/authors/mynamepong Becris: https://www.flaticon.com/authors/becris Pause 08: https://www.flaticon.com/authors/pause08 Ddara: https://www.flaticon.com/authors/ddara https://www.flaticon.com/authors/ddara Surang: https://www.flaticon.com/authors/surang https://www.flaticon.com/authors/surang Eucalyp: https://www.flaticon.com/authors/eucalyp Test Tube: https://dribbble.com/shots/4900928-Test-Tube