![What do I mean
by an “audit”?
• ”An independent examination”
• My title is meant to refer to both:
• What the Census [of Population] does, and has
done for the last 215 years
• What my team does with the data from all those
censuses, and some other sources
• In practice, that does mean doing a lot of arithmetic
– not really math – with an awful lot of numbers](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
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Auditing a divided nation: A new map of Britain’s changing economy and society 1841-2021
- 2. What do I mean by an “audit”? • ”An independent examination” • My title is meant to refer to both: • What the Census [of Population] does, and has done for the last 215 years • What my team does with the data from all those censuses, and some other sources • In practice, that does mean doing a lot of arithmetic – not really math – with an awful lot of numbers
- 3. Structure of lecture • A very brief word on sources and methods • My aim today is to talk mainly about Britain and its changing localities • The changing economic base of Britain’s localities 1841-2011 • Presenting new data from nine censuses • An overview of the changing geography of William Beveridge’s five “Great Evils” • So what? – why does this historical research matter now? • I will be giving two rather different answers
- 4. Sources and Methods • Most of today’s lecture is based on data from published reports of the Census of Population • 1881 statistics based on Mormon microdata • Some data from vital registration and C19 trade unions • Once the pages have been converted to computer- ised numbers, not just scans, two tasks remain: • Re-districting, using GIS-based methods: almost everything presented today is for current local authority districts, as directly reported on by the 2011 Census • Re-classifying from historical classifications to modern: all industrial structure data today presented using the Standard Industrial Classification (2007) …
- 6. “Ask the vicar”: parishes reporting manufacturing in 1831 • The first four censuses up to 1831 relied on the personal knowledge of parish priests • In 1831 they tried to gather more detail on occupations, but most parishes recorded nobody in manufactures • So we must start in 1841, the first census to be gathered through a household enumeration
- 8. Industrial structure results • Data from nine censuses, forming almost a regular 20-year sequence: • 1861 – 1881 – 1911 – 1931 – 1951 – 1971 – 1991 – 2011 • Re-classification work maps all historical occupations to one of the 99 “Divisions” in the 2007 Standard Industrial Classification • Some of these assignments problematic, so web site will follow 2011 census in using a 26-way classification based mainly on the SIC “Sections” • To present change over time today, I am using an even simpler 7-way classification
- 17. 1861: Percentage employed in Public Services • In 19th century, “government” was concentrated in the South East • Much of this, of course, was about the military
- 19. Beveridge’s Five “Great Evils” • Idleness • Unemployment, from the census plus claimant counts • Illness • Infant Mortality • Want • Lack of direct evidence so data on social class • Ignorance • Statistics of Education • Squalor • Overcrowding measured by persons per room • Basis for an earlier paper with Danny Dorling and Ian Gregory, but then we redistricted back to 1898 units
- 29. 1851: The first Census of Education • Mainly concerned with how education was funded • Maps shows numbers attending schools as percent of all aged 5 to 14 Day Schools Sunday Schools
- 30. • First census since 1851 to provide education data • People could have left school any time in previous 50 years • Time trend for the N East vs E&W 1951: Percentage leaving education at ages under 16
- 32. And now for “so what?” • Will begin by quickly noting just the conclusions of a series of papers on the impact of past socio-economic conditions on individual health • All researched with collaborators who contributed very considerable expertise on statistical methods • But I want to include with a different kind of argument, about understanding who we are and where we have come from
- 33. How does being a child of the depressed areas of the 1930s affect your health today? • “The analysis shows that individual characteristics and type of area of residence in 1981 were associated with health outcomes. In addition, some variables describing socio- economic conditions in the 1930s contribute independently to the regression models (notably measures of economic deprivation and unemployment).” • “The results suggest that conditions in residential area in early life may help to explain relatively poor health experience of populations in some parts of Britain today.” • See: Sarah Curtis, H. Southall, P. Congdon, B. Dodgeon (2004) “Area effects on health variation over the life-course: analysis of the longitudinal study sample in England using new data on area of residence in childhood”, Social Science & Medicine 58, pp. 57–74
- 34. Does unemploy- ment increase suicides? • Aims: To investigate associations between unemployment and suicide in 15-to-44-year-old men and women over a period spanning two major economic recessions (1921- 1995). • Results There were significant associations between unemployment and suicide in both males and females. • See: GunnellD.J., Lopatatzidis A., Dorling D., Wehner H., Southall H.R. and Frankel, S. (1999) ‘Suicide, unemployment and gender — an analysis of trends in England and Wales: 1921-1995’, British J. of Psychiatry, 75, 263-70. +25- to 34-year-old males +35- to 44-year-old males Year
- 35. What effects does growing up poor in the 1950s have on what your body can do now? • Physical capability in later life is influenced by factors occurring across the life course. • Cross-classified multilevel models with individuals nested within areas at the 3 ages showed that models assessing a single time point underestimate total area contributions to physical capability. • For balance and chair-rise performance, associations with area deprivation in midlife were robust to adjustment for individual socioeconomic position and prior area deprivation • Interventions aimed at reducing midlife disparities in physical capability should target the socioeconomic environment of individuals—for standing balance, as early as childhood. • See: Emily T. Murray, Yoav Ben-Shlomo, Kate Tilling, Humphrey Southall, Paula Aucott, Diana Kuh, and Rebecca Hardy (2013) “Area Deprivation Across the Life Course and Physical Capability in Midlife: Findings From the 1946 British Birth Cohort”, American Journal of Epidemiology
- 36. How does the industrial history of your home area affect how much exercise you take? • Based on employment change in industries associated with heavy manual work, a local measurement of industrial decline was developed, covering the period 1841-2001. • Results indicate that the process of deindustrialisationappears to be associated with patterns of physical activity and that this is independent of household income. • In particular, residents of districts characterised by a history of manufacturing and mining employment had increased odds of reporting low activity levels. • Post-industrial change may be a factor in explaining present-day variations in physical activity, emphasisingthe plausible impact of inherited cultures and regional identities on health related behaviours. • See: Esther Rind, Andy Jones, Humphrey Southall(2014) “How is post-industrial decline associated with the geography of physical activity? Evidence from the Health Survey for England”, Social Science & Medicine 104, 88-97.
- 37. … and now we are working on connections between past air pollution and health • Map shows domestic consumption per head of coal in 1952 • From new research with David Phillips and Clive Osmond of Southampton University • Linking back to a tradition of research there into long-run health impacts of childhood conditions started by David Barker ¯ 0 40 8020 Miles Domestic Fuel Consumption per Person 1952 Tons per year 2.8 - 3.4 2.3 - 2.7 1.8 - 2.2 1.2 - 1.7 0.9 - 1.1 0.6 - 0.8 0.3 - 0.5 (Local Fuel Overseers' Areas)
- 38. The need for a “national audit” (1) • Our work to assemble long-run statistical perspectives is part-justified by this health research, but I believe there is a broader justification • “The national curriculum for history aims to ensure that all pupils … understand historical concepts such as continuity and change, cause and consequence, similarity, difference and significance, and use them to make connections, draw contrasts, analyse trends, frame historically valid questions and create their own structured accounts, including written narratives and analyses.” • See https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national- curriculum-in-england-history-programmes-of-study/national- curriculum-in-england-history-programmes-of-study
- 39. The need for a “national audit” (2) • How are we to develop long-run perspectives of this kind? • Our work also embraces a large collection of historical travel writing, but despite having read all of it I do not find there the kind of long-run geographical perspective we can build up from the Census and other statistical sources • It therefore matters greatly whether we continue to conduct these great national stick-takings, even after 2021 • Which for those of you who do not work in Titchfield, is very much an open question!”
- 40. Acknowledgments: • For particular help preparing today’s lecture: • David Gatley • Paul Norman • Harold Price • Sinclair Sutherland • Greater London Authority • Centre for Cities • And always the GB Historical GIS team: • Paula Aucott • Michael Stoner
Editor's Notes
- Presenting just a few sample districts, partly chosen for particular people in today’s audience. Firstly, the New Forest, with a markedly larger agricultural workforce than the national average but still essentially disappearing today Note also the rise in manufacturing between 1931 and 1951 – this has been one of the surprises for me
- Next, South Tyneside, including South Shields. This is one of the areas where coal mining played a very significant role historically
- Here we have a large part of the South Wales coalfield, and the remarkable scale of coal mining in some of our localities is very clear
- Now let’s look at the data a different way, considering particular sectors starting with manufacturing, and its geography in 1841
- Tells us something slightly surprising about the Welsh
- And again the persistence of the north south divide is very visible