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ATTRIBUTION MODELLING WITH R
Marta Nicolaouová
Bratislava 17.6.2017
Initial question
How do we quantify the value of in-house
display campaigns?
•they bring visitors, but do they also bring
conversions and revenue?
• Total conversions = last-click + assisted
conversions
• Total conversion value = last-click + assisted
conversion value
Attribution models available in
Google Analytics
Markov attribution model
• based on probability of state transitions
• first order (default in R)
• recommend trying 2nd and 3rd order as well
• sensitive to supplied data
Markov model in R
• package: ChannelAttribution
• possibility to pull in data from Google
Analytics
• non-conversion paths vs conversion paths
(use var_null parameter)
How to get non-conversion paths
into Google Analytics?
R code
Outputs
Removal effect
Some other use cases
• split paths depending on purchase counts
• replace some channels
• attribute costs
• predict customer flow through marketing
channels
• project number of conversions/user churn
• machine learning to forecast conversions
What to pay attention to?
• doesn’t include offline campaigns
• doesn’t overcome various devices
• tracking unique users
• the contribution of display campaigns tends to
increase
Sources
• http://analyzecore.com/2016/08/03/attribution-model-r-
part-1/
• http://analyzecore.com/2017/05/31/marketing-multi-
channel-attribution-model-r-part-2-practical-issues/
• http://www.lunametrics.com/blog/2016/06/30/marketing-
channel-attribution-markov-models-r/
• http://stuifbergen.com/2016/11/conversion-attribution-
markov-model-r/
• https://thedataanalyst.wordpress.com/2016/08/30/markov-
chain-approach-to-digital-attribution/
Thank you.

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Attribution modelling with R