Coal and Coke: The Global Scenario in 2010 - Global steel / coal and coke demand supply (macro view) - Recent developments in the market - What to expect in 2010? - China's influence on the coal and coke markets Author: Asheesh Bhat, Manager - Coal & Coke, NOBLE ENERGY, UK

1. COAL & COKE :
GLOBAL SCENARIO IN 2010
ASHEESH BHAT
NOBLE RESOURCES PTE LTD.
SINGAPORE.

2. WORLD CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION
 ASIA ALL THE WAY
 CHINA LEADS ... BY
FAR
 BIG DIP IN 2009,
ESPECIALLY FOR
MARKETS OTHER
THAN ASIA.
 BRIC COUNTRIES
FORECASTED TO
GROW FASTEST
Source: McCloskey’s Coal Quarterly

3. INCREASE IN CRUDE STEEL PROD. IN Q1 2010
Source : World steel

4. SIGNS OF HEALTHY RECOVERY IN
2010
“THE RECOVERY IS EARLIER THAN FORECAST
AND STRONGER THAN FORECAST “
- IAN CHRISTMAS
SECRETARY GENERAL
WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
 AGAINST A DROP OF 6.7% IN 2009, THIS YEAR’S APPARENT
STEEL DEMAND PROJECTED TO GROW BY 10.7%.
 CHINA AND INDIA WERE ONLY TWO MAJOR MARKETS WHICH
GREW LAST YEAR .... AND THIS YEAR PROJECTED TO KEEP
GROWING FURTHER

5. CHINA’S POSITION IN WORLD STEEL
PRODUCTION
Source : McCloskey’s Coal Quarterly

6. WORLD MET COAL FLOW : 2010 - 2011
EUROPE
60 N. ASIA
CANADA CHINA 96
25 40
USA
45 INDIA
25
S. AMERICA
16
AUSTRALIA
145

7. TOTAL IMPORTS OF MET COAL (BY REGION)
Source : McCloskey’s Coal Quarterly

8. MET COAL IMPORTS IN ASIA
Source : McCloskey’s Coal Quarterly

9. MET COKE NET EXPORTS (EXPORT – IMPORT)
Source : McCloskey’s Coal Quarterly
2009 WAS AN AMAZING YEAR WHERE ASIA BECAME A NET IMPORTER WHILE NORTH
AMERICA WAS A NET EXPORTER OF MET COKE !!!!!

10. MET COKE : GLOBAL SNAPSHOT
CIS
EX: 1,5
IM: 0.5
USA EUROPE
IM:3.5 EX: 1.0
CHINA
IM: 3.0 JAPAN
EX: 5.0
EX: 1.0
IM: 0.5
COLOMBIA
EX: 0.5 INDIA
AFRICA EX: 1.0
EX: 0.5 IM: 3.0
IM:0.5
BRAZIL
IM:1.5

11. RECAP OF 2009:
 DEMAND DESTRUCTION.
 MANY MILLS DEFAULTED ON CONTRACTS IN Q4 2008 AND 2009.
 STEEL MILLS OPERATING AT AROUND 50% CAPACITY.
 STEEL MILLS SELLING COKE RATHER THAN BUYING COKE.
 CHINA ABSENT FROM COKE MARKET AND EMERGED ONE OF THE
BIGGEST IMPORTERS OF MET COAL.
 INSPITE OF OVERALL CRISIS, METCOAL BENCHMARK PRICE WAS
2ND ALL TIME HIGH.

12. 2010 : A NEW CHAPTER
 REVIVAL IN GLOBAL ECONOMY.
 STEEL MILLS IMPROVE CAPACITY UTILISATION.
 QUARTERLY PRICING SYSTEM INTRODUCED IN MET COAL.
 ALREADY 2ND ALL TIME HIGH PRICE ACHIEVED FOR Q1.
 CHINA RESUMES MET COKE EXPORTS.
 STEEL MILLS ALL OVER THE WORLD ARE BACK WITH DEMAND FOR
SEABORNE MET COKE.
 UNLESS CHINA EXPORTS CLOSE TO 14MMT AS IT USED TO DO IN
THE PAST, THE WORLD IS SHORT OF COKE AND THE GAP IS BIG !!!

13. WHAT TO EXPECT THIS YEAR
 QUARTERLY PRICING FOR MET-COAL.
 VOLATILITY AND FLUCTUATIONS.
 STRONG SPOT MARKET FOR COAL AND COKE.
 AUSSIE COAL SUPPLY TIGHT.
 US COAL TRIES TO CAPTURE BIGGER SHARE IN ASIA.
 CHINA CONTINUES TO REMAIN A CRUCIAL PLAYER (BOTH IN MET
COAL & COKE).
 INDIA’S POSITION IN GLOBAL CONTEXT.
 COKE MARKET SUPPLY IS FUNDAMENTALLY TIGHT.

14. CHINA .... FOCUS OF COAL & COKE TRADE
 CHINA PROVED A SAVIOUR OF COAL MARKETS IN 2009.
 IF CHINA CONTINUES TO IMPORT 35 – 40MMT , WORLD COAL
MARKETS WOULD REMAIN FIRM.
 IF CHINA STOPS IMPORT OF COAL ..... ???
 CHINA’S BUSINESS COMPATIBLE WITH QUARTERLY PRICING
SYSTEM.
 WILL CHINA KEEP EXPORTING COKE?
 COKE MARKET HAS A FLOOR PRICE FOR CHINA TO SUPPLY COKE.

15. PROBABLY WHAT WE NEED IS .................
............... A CRYSTAL BALL !!!
THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME !!!

16. ABOUT NOBLE
Noble Group (SGX: N21) is a market leader in managing the global supply chain of agricultural,
industrial and energy products. The Group operates from over 100 offices in more than 40
countries, serving 4000+ customers. Noble manages a diversified portfolio of essential raw
materials, integrating the sourcing, marketing, processing, financing and transportation. With
2008 annual revenues exceeding US$36 billion, Noble owns and manages an array of strategic
assets, sourcing from low cost producers such as Brazil, Argentina, Australia and Indonesia and
supplying to high growth demand markets including China, India and the Middle East. Today,
Noble has interests in grain crushing facilities, coal and iron ore mines, fuel terminals and
storage facilities, sugar and ethanol plants, vessels, ports and other infrastructure to ensure
high quality products are delivered in the most efficient and timely manner to its customers.
In 2009, Noble ranked #218 on the Fortune Global 500 and achieved "Investment Grade"
ratings (Baa3) from Moody's Investors Service and (BBB-) from Standard & Poor's,
complementing its initial "Investment Grade" rating (BBB-) from Fitch the previous year. In
addition, Noble appears on the Forbes Global 2000 and Forbes Fab 50 lists of leading
companies. Noble Group is among the 30 securities listed on the Straits Times Index.