This document provides information on the TerraEquitas SRI Asset Allocator fund. It begins with background on increasing global population and sustainability concerns. It then discusses the history of socially responsible investing and Banque Heritage's mission to better distribute wealth and reduce inequality by helping people worldwide gain economic means for a better quality of life. The fund aims to achieve financial returns for investors while also supporting development projects of NGOs through a portion of fund fees. The document provides details on the fund's socially responsible investment criteria and goals of reconciling finance with individual aspirations.
This document provides a weekly market and investment update from Goodbody Wealth Management. It discusses ongoing negotiations between Greece and its creditors but notes that some progress has been made on taxation and industry reforms. However, pensions and labor market reforms remain sticking points. It also discusses the US Federal Reserve minutes signaling that a June interest rate hike is unlikely due to concerns about the strength of the US economy. Finally, it recommends investing in consumer staples companies and notes their attractive returns in recent years while addressing concerns about higher valuations.
The document summarizes a report by The Economist Intelligence Unit on the global economic outlook for Q4 2020. It finds that advanced economies will enter a "new normal" characterized by slow growth, low inflation, and high debt due to the fiscal stimulus measures enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Central banks have taken on the new role of directly financing government spending, and low interest rates mean debt servicing costs are negligible. As a result, debt piles may simply disappear over time if growth outpaces interest rates. However, this situation also carries long-term risks for productivity, inflation, and financial stability.
The fund returned -10.8% in February, underperforming its benchmark. The short equity book and long equity book both made negative contributions after currency hedging. Within the short book, negative contributions came from Anglo American, Las Vegas Sands, and Royal Dutch Shell. Within the long book, negative contributions came from Nokia, Sky, and Bank of America. Elsewhere, active currencies returned -0.4% while government bonds and commodities returned +0.1% and +1.4% respectively. The manager remains convinced markets will continue to struggle without credit expansion and believes central banks have limited options to address slowing growth and falling productivity.
The document summarizes a weekly commentary from Hyre Weekly dated April 23, 2012. It discusses how corporate earnings in the US have overtaken concerns about the European debt crisis as the focus of investors. While most US companies reported better than expected earnings, earnings growth was only 3.7% compared to a year ago. Interest rates increased again in troubled European countries like Spain and Italy, suggesting their debt problems remain. The commentary concludes by noting the interconnection of global markets and how European problems could eventually impact the US.
The portfolio manager discusses the Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund. They reiterate their commitment to maximizing value in the portfolio and returning capital to shareholders in a timely manner. Eight of the top ten holdings have restructured in the past two years, reducing debt levels. The manager believes the portfolio contains significant embedded value that will be realized as market conditions normalize and corporate events occur. They intend to provide transparency to shareholders through monthly fact sheets and quarterly commentary on the fund's website. The manager also discusses recent volatility in the high yield and distressed debt markets, noting that credit spreads spiked in 2015 but it is unclear if this will lead to recession or opportunity.
The document discusses the performance of the Odey European Inc fund in December 2015. It summarizes the positive and negative contributions from various long and short equity positions. It then analyzes economic and market conditions, including concerns about bubbles in China, falling oil prices, and central banks' responses to risky lending behaviors through interest rate policies. The document warns that markets may be fragile given high valuations and falling corporate profits, and that a significant market correction is possible in the coming year.
The current account deficit that cried "wolf!"RBS Economics
The UK current account deficit hit a record 5.2% of GDP in 2015. Senior Economists Rupert Seggins and Marcus Wright take a look at what the current account deficit is, what has happened to it, why and what it does and does not tell us about the economy.
The Low Interest Rate Dilemma for Corporate Investors Presentation 5-12 CCA V...Mike Betty
This document summarizes a presentation on corporate liquidity and investment challenges given by Mike Betty. It discusses how corporations have large cash piles due to economic uncertainty but are reluctant to invest or acquire due to ongoing risks. Key points driving caution include the political climate, Eurozone challenges, and uncertain economic growth. Regulations like Basel III may also impact corporate investing. The document outlines rationales for both continued caution and optimism in the economy. It identifies forecasting cash flows and preserving liquidity as major challenges for corporate treasurers.
This document provides a weekly market and investment update from Goodbody Wealth Management. It discusses ongoing negotiations between Greece and its creditors but notes that some progress has been made on taxation and industry reforms. However, pensions and labor market reforms remain sticking points. It also discusses the US Federal Reserve minutes signaling that a June interest rate hike is unlikely due to concerns about the strength of the US economy. Finally, it recommends investing in consumer staples companies and notes their attractive returns in recent years while addressing concerns about higher valuations.
The document summarizes a report by The Economist Intelligence Unit on the global economic outlook for Q4 2020. It finds that advanced economies will enter a "new normal" characterized by slow growth, low inflation, and high debt due to the fiscal stimulus measures enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Central banks have taken on the new role of directly financing government spending, and low interest rates mean debt servicing costs are negligible. As a result, debt piles may simply disappear over time if growth outpaces interest rates. However, this situation also carries long-term risks for productivity, inflation, and financial stability.
The fund returned -10.8% in February, underperforming its benchmark. The short equity book and long equity book both made negative contributions after currency hedging. Within the short book, negative contributions came from Anglo American, Las Vegas Sands, and Royal Dutch Shell. Within the long book, negative contributions came from Nokia, Sky, and Bank of America. Elsewhere, active currencies returned -0.4% while government bonds and commodities returned +0.1% and +1.4% respectively. The manager remains convinced markets will continue to struggle without credit expansion and believes central banks have limited options to address slowing growth and falling productivity.
The document summarizes a weekly commentary from Hyre Weekly dated April 23, 2012. It discusses how corporate earnings in the US have overtaken concerns about the European debt crisis as the focus of investors. While most US companies reported better than expected earnings, earnings growth was only 3.7% compared to a year ago. Interest rates increased again in troubled European countries like Spain and Italy, suggesting their debt problems remain. The commentary concludes by noting the interconnection of global markets and how European problems could eventually impact the US.
The portfolio manager discusses the Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund. They reiterate their commitment to maximizing value in the portfolio and returning capital to shareholders in a timely manner. Eight of the top ten holdings have restructured in the past two years, reducing debt levels. The manager believes the portfolio contains significant embedded value that will be realized as market conditions normalize and corporate events occur. They intend to provide transparency to shareholders through monthly fact sheets and quarterly commentary on the fund's website. The manager also discusses recent volatility in the high yield and distressed debt markets, noting that credit spreads spiked in 2015 but it is unclear if this will lead to recession or opportunity.
The document discusses the performance of the Odey European Inc fund in December 2015. It summarizes the positive and negative contributions from various long and short equity positions. It then analyzes economic and market conditions, including concerns about bubbles in China, falling oil prices, and central banks' responses to risky lending behaviors through interest rate policies. The document warns that markets may be fragile given high valuations and falling corporate profits, and that a significant market correction is possible in the coming year.
The current account deficit that cried "wolf!"RBS Economics
The UK current account deficit hit a record 5.2% of GDP in 2015. Senior Economists Rupert Seggins and Marcus Wright take a look at what the current account deficit is, what has happened to it, why and what it does and does not tell us about the economy.
The Low Interest Rate Dilemma for Corporate Investors Presentation 5-12 CCA V...Mike Betty
This document summarizes a presentation on corporate liquidity and investment challenges given by Mike Betty. It discusses how corporations have large cash piles due to economic uncertainty but are reluctant to invest or acquire due to ongoing risks. Key points driving caution include the political climate, Eurozone challenges, and uncertain economic growth. Regulations like Basel III may also impact corporate investing. The document outlines rationales for both continued caution and optimism in the economy. It identifies forecasting cash flows and preserving liquidity as major challenges for corporate treasurers.
The document provides an overview of recent economic developments and investment sentiment from various regions. It notes that while the US and China continue to debate currency policies, a G20 meeting did not provide clarity on the issue. Germany is outperforming other European countries as indicators show growth, while problems are mounting in Ireland. In the US, government programs spent only half their funds and losses are expected to be small, while housing markets are stabilizing. China is investing in Europe and emerging markets are growing quickly, raising interest rates to cool their economies. The author's investment sentiment remains neutral but slightly positive.
Central banks around the world have created over $2.5 trillion since 2008 through quantitative easing programs. This involves banks creating money to purchase government and mortgage debt, with the goal of increasing money supply and stimulating the economy. However, low interest rates have resulted in a "stealth tax" on savers as interest earned is below inflation. While helping debtors, quantitative easing may be keeping the economy dependent on unsustainable monetary policy.
2012 global credit outlook sovereign debt problems weigh on a mostly tepid fo...Pim Piepers
The document summarizes Standard & Poor's outlook for global credit markets in 2012. Key points include:
- Sovereign debt problems in Europe and potential fiscal tightening in the US increase uncertainty and risk of recession.
- The US recovery is expected to continue but unemployment will likely remain above 8%. Growth in emerging markets should be solid.
- European economies will likely see continued recession in the first half of 2012 driven by weak demand, tight credit conditions, and high unemployment. Housing markets will remain weak except in the UK.
This document provides a summary of market conditions and investment opportunities in May 2016. It notes that investor sentiment has been unusually neutral for an extended period. Real estate markets in Vancouver and Toronto have seen large price increases, which some see as a distortion caused by low interest rates. Earnings are expected to decline in the first quarter of 2016 but resume growth in the second half of the year. Three sectors - healthcare, telecommunications, and consumer discretionary - are expected to see earnings growth. Within consumer discretionary, strong double-digit earnings growth is forecast for retailing, consumer services, and other sub-sectors.
SJP Special Investment Bulletin Feb 2016Tyler Stuart
The document discusses recent declines in global stock markets and concerns about the health of the global economy. It makes three key points:
1) While global economic growth is slowing, experts do not believe a global recession is imminent or that the current situation resembles 2008.
2) Well-diversified investment portfolios can help reduce risk and allow investors to achieve long-term goals, even with market volatility.
3) Periods of market decline have historically been followed by strong five-year returns for patient investors, suggesting current downturns may present opportunities.
Through all the market traumas of recent years, the crises in Greece, slowdown scares in China, US political gridlock, the collapse in oil prices, the wars and the migrant flows, investors prepared to weather short-term volatility have seen handsome returns on developed-economy equities since the depths of the financial crisis in 2008, with EUR and USD investors seeing only one modestly down year in 2011. There has also been good performance from high yield and investment grade corporate bonds, the laggards (since 2011) being investments connected to commodities and emerging markets.
Our analysis, set out in this Outlook, suggests that 2016 may deliver a fairly similar pattern. Temporary traumas could emanate from Federal Reserve tightening, reduced bond liquidity, renewed growth scares in China or geopolitics, but behind these is an underlying picture of ongoing expansion. The global economy is neither pushed up against capacity limits nor facing severe slack (except for commodities and energy), banking systems are healthy and debt levels seem more amber than red. Rapid growth seems unlikely, given aging populations (bar Africa and India) and sharing economy technologies that do not generate much Gross Domestic Product, but sensibly-priced assets do not need a booming economy to generate reasonable returns. At the time of writing (in late 2015), high yield and investment grade credits have spreads just above their quarter-century averages, giving them scope to weather gradual Fed tightening. Developed equities have valuations somewhat above historic norms on a price-earnings basis, but not on a price-book basis, and operational leverage (especially in the Eurozone) and consolidating oil prices should allow earnings growth to move from last year's negatives into the mid- to high-single digits. In short, we think developed equities and credits are well placed for another year of reasonable returns, with the dollar likely to be strong again as the Fed leads the monetary cycle. As for emerging markets, and the commodities on which many depend, a convincing general recovery looks some time away, but there is scope for some to move ahead of the pack, as discussed in a special article.
Of course there can always be risks that are not visible and Fed tightening has a habit of teasing these out, although usually not within its first year. But, equally, there could be upside surprises, if the USA finally moves toward solutions on taxing repatriated corporate cash and infrastructure spending or, more simply, the signals of rising confidence already visible in US and European consumer surveys translate into faster spending. We trust our readers will find the Investment Outlook 2016 to be of considerable interest for the coming year.
Session by Rolf Alter, Director, OECD Public Governance and Territorial Development
Money plays a role both as a channel for citizens to support their candidates or political parties, and as a means for candidates and political parties to reach out to their constituencies. Access to resources for political parties and candidates also shapes political competition. Parliamentarians have an important stake in advancing the global debate on the role of money in politics. There are still many loopholes in political party funding regulations that are open to exploitation by powerful special interests. Loans, membership fees, and third party funding are all used to circumvent spending limits and other regulations. Many countries struggle to define and regulate third-party campaigning leaving them ill-equipped to prevent the channelling of election spending through supposedly independent committees and interest groups. Only a handful of countries have regulations in place for third-party campaigning and globalisation is complicating the regulation of private funding of political parties as foreign companies and wealthy individuals are often deeply integrated with domestic business interests. This OECD report finds that 29% of OECD countries have an independent electoral management body and there is no one-size-fits all model. But whatever the structure, the institutions responsible for enforcing political finance regulations should have a clear mandate, legal power and the capacity to deal with large volumes of work. While data clearly shows that sanctions are effective in improving compliance with the rules, many countries struggle to ensure sanctions that are both proportionate and dissuasive. One clear-cut lesson is that ensuring the effective implementation of political finance regulations still remains challenging in many countries. The Framework on Financing Democracy presented in this report shapes the global debate on risks and policy options, and provides tangible advice for the funding of political parties and electoral campaigns. The report also features detailed case studies of Canada, Chile, Estonia, France, Korea, Mexico, United Kingdom, Brazil and India.
This document contains the transcript from a conference call held by HSBC Holdings plc to discuss their 2008 interim results. The call was led by Group Chairman Stephen Green who provided an overview of the financial headlines and performance. Group Finance Director Douglas Flint then discussed the financial results in more detail, including revenue, expenses, loan impairment charges, capital ratios, and exposures in Global Banking and Markets. Group Chief Executive Michael Geoghegan then discussed the company's progress on key metrics and performance across different regions.
With investor sentiment now showing signs of improvement after a challenging period in emerging markets, our sixth edition of the CSRI Emerging Consumer Survey provides investors timely insights with which to revisit the theme of a fast developing consumer culture shaped by technological innovation. The countries that top our ECS Scorecard are India, China and Saudi Arabia with a key demographic accent on the role of the youthful consumer.
- Download the full report: http://bit.ly/1YnhtyR
- Order hard copy: http://bit.ly/1RQb79r
- Visit the website: bit.ly/18Cxa0p
This document summarizes an investment webinar on cash management and fixed income assets in a low interest rate environment. Global interest rates are at historic lows, with rates on major currencies like the USD, GBP and EUR near or below 1%. This makes it difficult for trustees to achieve positive returns through cash investments. The document discusses options for cash management including money market funds and managing counterparty risk. It also covers the Federal Reserve's stimulus measures, the risks facing corporate bonds and banking sectors, and examples of fixed income portfolios that trustees could consider to pursue returns while managing risks.
This document provides summaries of market conditions and investment outlooks from experts at Telemus Capital Management. It includes the following:
- A summary of the global economic outlook and key factors such as inflation, interest rates, currencies, and natural resources from Jim Robinson of Robinson Capital Management.
- A summary of the U.S. equity market outlook for 2014 from Timothy Evnin of Evercore Wealth Management, noting that earnings growth will drive market gains rather than further multiple expansion.
- A question and response about the municipal bond market's performance in Q4 2013 and how rising rates and isolated credit situations weighed on prices, despite improving fundamentals.
On 23 June the UK public will be given what could be a once in a generation opportunity to have its say on the UK’s relationship with Europe. Whatever the result, it will have far-reaching economic and political consequences. In our latest version of LCP Vista we have explored how this could impact pension schemes.
Of course, whilst Brexit is naturally dominating the news, pension schemes need to carry on thinking about the best long-term strategies to meet their liabilities. So in this edition of LCP Vista we take a look at the latest investment ideas to help them do so.
The document discusses the key factors that influence changes in interest rates. It explains that interest rates are determined by the supply and demand of funds in the market. A rise in interest rates occurs when demand for borrowing increases or supply of savings decreases, while a fall happens in the reverse situation. It then analyzes how savings behaviors, central bank actions, and economic conditions of countries can impact supply and demand in the market. Specifically, wealthy nations save more so have lower rates, while central banks use tools like bond purchases and lending rates to influence market rates.
1) Quantitative easing (QE) works by central banks purchasing assets like bonds from private actors, increasing the money supply and stimulating the economy.
2) In the UK, QE has successfully increased the money supply by over 7% annually and boosted asset prices, but bank lending remains weak as households pay down debt.
3) While QE can increase inflation in theory, the UK currently has spare productive capacity and subdued growth, making inflation unlikely in the near future.
Global trading ideas for analysts and portfolio managers from Esoteric Insights. For more information and to sign up for a trial subscription, visit http://www.esotericinsights.com
The document discusses recent developments in the global financial markets in the second quarter of 2015. It notes volatility in major stock indexes due to concerns over Greece's debt crisis and China's slowing economy. It provides context on US interest rates and the Federal Reserve's policy stance. It concludes by advising investors that while safety comes with low rates, most will need to accept some risk to achieve their goals given the low return environment.
Here is our recent revision webinar on commercial banks and the UK economy. We look at how commercial banks made a profit (or loss!) and consider the factors that affect how much they can lend out.
Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan who is known as one of the smartest bankers, revealed that the bank recently lost $2 billion on risky derivative bets. This loss shows that even experts can make mistakes, and provides three important lessons: keep strategies simple, closely monitor all investments, and remain humble, as even the smartest people can fail. The large loss damages JP Morgan's reputation of being well-managed during the financial crisis.
The document discusses the policy challenges facing Asian economies from global liquidity infusion. It summarizes the magnitude and impact of capital flows into the Philippines, including the BSP's policy responses. While an early unwinding of quantitative easing could cause volatility, the Philippine economy has shown resilience due to strong growth, prudent policies, and adequate buffers. Overall, the economy has managed risks from capital flows well and has policy flexibility to navigate potential turbulence.
Will risks-derail-the-modest-recovery-oecd-interim-economic-outlook-march-2017OECD, Economics Department
Global GDP growth is projected to pick up modestly to around 3½ per cent in 2018, from just under 3% in 2016, boosted by fiscal initiatives in the major economies. The forecast is broadly unchanged since November 2016. Confidence has improved, but consumption, investment, trade and productivity are far from strong, with growth slow by past norms and higher inequality.
Stanford Endowment Fund - Asset AllocationKUN YANG
This document provides a summary of the Riesling Fonds portfolio for the Stanford Endowment Fund. It analyzes the current economic outlook for the US, Eurozone, Germany and China. For the US, moderate growth is expected along with an interest rate hike. Inflation is near the target. The Eurozone faces sluggish growth and inflation remains below target. Germany's economy is stable with growth around 2% supported by manufacturing. China is transitioning to a consumption-based economy with growth slowing to 6-6.5%. The portfolio targets global diversification across asset classes including public and private equities, absolute return, natural resources, real estate and fixed income.
The document provides an overview of recent economic developments and investment sentiment from various regions. It notes that while the US and China continue to debate currency policies, a G20 meeting did not provide clarity on the issue. Germany is outperforming other European countries as indicators show growth, while problems are mounting in Ireland. In the US, government programs spent only half their funds and losses are expected to be small, while housing markets are stabilizing. China is investing in Europe and emerging markets are growing quickly, raising interest rates to cool their economies. The author's investment sentiment remains neutral but slightly positive.
Central banks around the world have created over $2.5 trillion since 2008 through quantitative easing programs. This involves banks creating money to purchase government and mortgage debt, with the goal of increasing money supply and stimulating the economy. However, low interest rates have resulted in a "stealth tax" on savers as interest earned is below inflation. While helping debtors, quantitative easing may be keeping the economy dependent on unsustainable monetary policy.
2012 global credit outlook sovereign debt problems weigh on a mostly tepid fo...Pim Piepers
The document summarizes Standard & Poor's outlook for global credit markets in 2012. Key points include:
- Sovereign debt problems in Europe and potential fiscal tightening in the US increase uncertainty and risk of recession.
- The US recovery is expected to continue but unemployment will likely remain above 8%. Growth in emerging markets should be solid.
- European economies will likely see continued recession in the first half of 2012 driven by weak demand, tight credit conditions, and high unemployment. Housing markets will remain weak except in the UK.
This document provides a summary of market conditions and investment opportunities in May 2016. It notes that investor sentiment has been unusually neutral for an extended period. Real estate markets in Vancouver and Toronto have seen large price increases, which some see as a distortion caused by low interest rates. Earnings are expected to decline in the first quarter of 2016 but resume growth in the second half of the year. Three sectors - healthcare, telecommunications, and consumer discretionary - are expected to see earnings growth. Within consumer discretionary, strong double-digit earnings growth is forecast for retailing, consumer services, and other sub-sectors.
SJP Special Investment Bulletin Feb 2016Tyler Stuart
The document discusses recent declines in global stock markets and concerns about the health of the global economy. It makes three key points:
1) While global economic growth is slowing, experts do not believe a global recession is imminent or that the current situation resembles 2008.
2) Well-diversified investment portfolios can help reduce risk and allow investors to achieve long-term goals, even with market volatility.
3) Periods of market decline have historically been followed by strong five-year returns for patient investors, suggesting current downturns may present opportunities.
Through all the market traumas of recent years, the crises in Greece, slowdown scares in China, US political gridlock, the collapse in oil prices, the wars and the migrant flows, investors prepared to weather short-term volatility have seen handsome returns on developed-economy equities since the depths of the financial crisis in 2008, with EUR and USD investors seeing only one modestly down year in 2011. There has also been good performance from high yield and investment grade corporate bonds, the laggards (since 2011) being investments connected to commodities and emerging markets.
Our analysis, set out in this Outlook, suggests that 2016 may deliver a fairly similar pattern. Temporary traumas could emanate from Federal Reserve tightening, reduced bond liquidity, renewed growth scares in China or geopolitics, but behind these is an underlying picture of ongoing expansion. The global economy is neither pushed up against capacity limits nor facing severe slack (except for commodities and energy), banking systems are healthy and debt levels seem more amber than red. Rapid growth seems unlikely, given aging populations (bar Africa and India) and sharing economy technologies that do not generate much Gross Domestic Product, but sensibly-priced assets do not need a booming economy to generate reasonable returns. At the time of writing (in late 2015), high yield and investment grade credits have spreads just above their quarter-century averages, giving them scope to weather gradual Fed tightening. Developed equities have valuations somewhat above historic norms on a price-earnings basis, but not on a price-book basis, and operational leverage (especially in the Eurozone) and consolidating oil prices should allow earnings growth to move from last year's negatives into the mid- to high-single digits. In short, we think developed equities and credits are well placed for another year of reasonable returns, with the dollar likely to be strong again as the Fed leads the monetary cycle. As for emerging markets, and the commodities on which many depend, a convincing general recovery looks some time away, but there is scope for some to move ahead of the pack, as discussed in a special article.
Of course there can always be risks that are not visible and Fed tightening has a habit of teasing these out, although usually not within its first year. But, equally, there could be upside surprises, if the USA finally moves toward solutions on taxing repatriated corporate cash and infrastructure spending or, more simply, the signals of rising confidence already visible in US and European consumer surveys translate into faster spending. We trust our readers will find the Investment Outlook 2016 to be of considerable interest for the coming year.
Session by Rolf Alter, Director, OECD Public Governance and Territorial Development
Money plays a role both as a channel for citizens to support their candidates or political parties, and as a means for candidates and political parties to reach out to their constituencies. Access to resources for political parties and candidates also shapes political competition. Parliamentarians have an important stake in advancing the global debate on the role of money in politics. There are still many loopholes in political party funding regulations that are open to exploitation by powerful special interests. Loans, membership fees, and third party funding are all used to circumvent spending limits and other regulations. Many countries struggle to define and regulate third-party campaigning leaving them ill-equipped to prevent the channelling of election spending through supposedly independent committees and interest groups. Only a handful of countries have regulations in place for third-party campaigning and globalisation is complicating the regulation of private funding of political parties as foreign companies and wealthy individuals are often deeply integrated with domestic business interests. This OECD report finds that 29% of OECD countries have an independent electoral management body and there is no one-size-fits all model. But whatever the structure, the institutions responsible for enforcing political finance regulations should have a clear mandate, legal power and the capacity to deal with large volumes of work. While data clearly shows that sanctions are effective in improving compliance with the rules, many countries struggle to ensure sanctions that are both proportionate and dissuasive. One clear-cut lesson is that ensuring the effective implementation of political finance regulations still remains challenging in many countries. The Framework on Financing Democracy presented in this report shapes the global debate on risks and policy options, and provides tangible advice for the funding of political parties and electoral campaigns. The report also features detailed case studies of Canada, Chile, Estonia, France, Korea, Mexico, United Kingdom, Brazil and India.
This document contains the transcript from a conference call held by HSBC Holdings plc to discuss their 2008 interim results. The call was led by Group Chairman Stephen Green who provided an overview of the financial headlines and performance. Group Finance Director Douglas Flint then discussed the financial results in more detail, including revenue, expenses, loan impairment charges, capital ratios, and exposures in Global Banking and Markets. Group Chief Executive Michael Geoghegan then discussed the company's progress on key metrics and performance across different regions.
With investor sentiment now showing signs of improvement after a challenging period in emerging markets, our sixth edition of the CSRI Emerging Consumer Survey provides investors timely insights with which to revisit the theme of a fast developing consumer culture shaped by technological innovation. The countries that top our ECS Scorecard are India, China and Saudi Arabia with a key demographic accent on the role of the youthful consumer.
- Download the full report: http://bit.ly/1YnhtyR
- Order hard copy: http://bit.ly/1RQb79r
- Visit the website: bit.ly/18Cxa0p
This document summarizes an investment webinar on cash management and fixed income assets in a low interest rate environment. Global interest rates are at historic lows, with rates on major currencies like the USD, GBP and EUR near or below 1%. This makes it difficult for trustees to achieve positive returns through cash investments. The document discusses options for cash management including money market funds and managing counterparty risk. It also covers the Federal Reserve's stimulus measures, the risks facing corporate bonds and banking sectors, and examples of fixed income portfolios that trustees could consider to pursue returns while managing risks.
This document provides summaries of market conditions and investment outlooks from experts at Telemus Capital Management. It includes the following:
- A summary of the global economic outlook and key factors such as inflation, interest rates, currencies, and natural resources from Jim Robinson of Robinson Capital Management.
- A summary of the U.S. equity market outlook for 2014 from Timothy Evnin of Evercore Wealth Management, noting that earnings growth will drive market gains rather than further multiple expansion.
- A question and response about the municipal bond market's performance in Q4 2013 and how rising rates and isolated credit situations weighed on prices, despite improving fundamentals.
On 23 June the UK public will be given what could be a once in a generation opportunity to have its say on the UK’s relationship with Europe. Whatever the result, it will have far-reaching economic and political consequences. In our latest version of LCP Vista we have explored how this could impact pension schemes.
Of course, whilst Brexit is naturally dominating the news, pension schemes need to carry on thinking about the best long-term strategies to meet their liabilities. So in this edition of LCP Vista we take a look at the latest investment ideas to help them do so.
The document discusses the key factors that influence changes in interest rates. It explains that interest rates are determined by the supply and demand of funds in the market. A rise in interest rates occurs when demand for borrowing increases or supply of savings decreases, while a fall happens in the reverse situation. It then analyzes how savings behaviors, central bank actions, and economic conditions of countries can impact supply and demand in the market. Specifically, wealthy nations save more so have lower rates, while central banks use tools like bond purchases and lending rates to influence market rates.
1) Quantitative easing (QE) works by central banks purchasing assets like bonds from private actors, increasing the money supply and stimulating the economy.
2) In the UK, QE has successfully increased the money supply by over 7% annually and boosted asset prices, but bank lending remains weak as households pay down debt.
3) While QE can increase inflation in theory, the UK currently has spare productive capacity and subdued growth, making inflation unlikely in the near future.
Global trading ideas for analysts and portfolio managers from Esoteric Insights. For more information and to sign up for a trial subscription, visit http://www.esotericinsights.com
The document discusses recent developments in the global financial markets in the second quarter of 2015. It notes volatility in major stock indexes due to concerns over Greece's debt crisis and China's slowing economy. It provides context on US interest rates and the Federal Reserve's policy stance. It concludes by advising investors that while safety comes with low rates, most will need to accept some risk to achieve their goals given the low return environment.
Here is our recent revision webinar on commercial banks and the UK economy. We look at how commercial banks made a profit (or loss!) and consider the factors that affect how much they can lend out.
Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan who is known as one of the smartest bankers, revealed that the bank recently lost $2 billion on risky derivative bets. This loss shows that even experts can make mistakes, and provides three important lessons: keep strategies simple, closely monitor all investments, and remain humble, as even the smartest people can fail. The large loss damages JP Morgan's reputation of being well-managed during the financial crisis.
The document discusses the policy challenges facing Asian economies from global liquidity infusion. It summarizes the magnitude and impact of capital flows into the Philippines, including the BSP's policy responses. While an early unwinding of quantitative easing could cause volatility, the Philippine economy has shown resilience due to strong growth, prudent policies, and adequate buffers. Overall, the economy has managed risks from capital flows well and has policy flexibility to navigate potential turbulence.
Will risks-derail-the-modest-recovery-oecd-interim-economic-outlook-march-2017OECD, Economics Department
Global GDP growth is projected to pick up modestly to around 3½ per cent in 2018, from just under 3% in 2016, boosted by fiscal initiatives in the major economies. The forecast is broadly unchanged since November 2016. Confidence has improved, but consumption, investment, trade and productivity are far from strong, with growth slow by past norms and higher inequality.
Stanford Endowment Fund - Asset AllocationKUN YANG
This document provides a summary of the Riesling Fonds portfolio for the Stanford Endowment Fund. It analyzes the current economic outlook for the US, Eurozone, Germany and China. For the US, moderate growth is expected along with an interest rate hike. Inflation is near the target. The Eurozone faces sluggish growth and inflation remains below target. Germany's economy is stable with growth around 2% supported by manufacturing. China is transitioning to a consumption-based economy with growth slowing to 6-6.5%. The portfolio targets global diversification across asset classes including public and private equities, absolute return, natural resources, real estate and fixed income.
1) The author upgrades European equities to Overweight due to improved political and economic conditions in Europe. Political risk has receded following centrist election victories in France and improving economic data across major European countries.
2) Earnings growth in Europe has surprised to the upside, with revenues and earnings growing around 9% and 20% respectively in the recent reporting season, well above comparable US growth. However, European stock valuations remain attractive relative to US stocks.
3) Key factors that could further improve the European investment case include ongoing economic improvements, ECB maintaining accommodative monetary policy, and stability in bond markets and inflation. Political risks remain from the Italian elections.
The document provides an overview of markets and investment outlook from various managers in the last quarter. Key points include:
- Markets performed well despite initial Brexit reaction, with UK and international equities rising. Bonds and commodities also rose.
- Managers are assessing economic outlooks, seeing potential for US growth but concerns in Europe. Some see opportunities from coordinated fiscal plans.
- Managers have mixed views on regions like Japan, Europe, and property exposure. Bonds are largely held for safety over yield.
- The outlook discusses navigating uncertainty after Brexit through diversification. Unemployment rates suggest the UK economy remains stronger than Eurozone economies.
The document provides an overview of markets and investment outlook from various managers in the last quarter. Key points include:
- Markets performed well despite initial Brexit reaction, with UK and international equities rising. Bonds and commodities also rose.
- Managers are assessing economic outlooks, seeing potential for US growth but concerns in Europe. Some see opportunities from coordinated fiscal plans.
- Managers have mixed views on regions like Japan, Europe, and property exposure. Bonds are largely held for safety over yield.
- The outlook discusses navigating uncertainty after Brexit through diversification. Unemployment rates suggest the UK economy remains stronger than Eurozone economies.
Vietnam's Recent Economic Development 2013Quynh LE
This report provides an update on Vietnam's recent economic developments. It summarizes that global growth is stabilizing at a moderate pace, though recovery in industrial production has been uneven across countries. Financial market conditions have improved due to monetary easing, but capital costs for developing countries are rising as risks in high-income countries recede. Inflation remains benign in most countries, prompting further monetary policy easing. Trade growth has slowed after a cyclical rebound, while most commodity prices have weakened in response to increased supply and substitution.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
This document provides a 10-year retrospective on the Luxembourg financial sector from 2007-2017. It summarizes that while the Luxembourg financial sector grew almost 10 times faster than the European financial sector since 2007, overall profitability has declined. Funds under management doubled to €3.3 trillion, private banking AUM grew to €350 billion, and insurance premiums and reserves saw double-digit growth. However, increasing costs, regulatory requirements, and competition have reduced profit margins across sectors. The document examines trends in key sub-sectors and argues Luxembourg's success is due to its flexible open-architecture model, skilled workforce, accessible regulator, and diverse investment solutions.
The fund lost money significantly in April (-19.3%) due to losses from its long USD position (-11.6%), short equity book (-7%), and Australian government bond positions (-0.9%). Positive individual stock positions such as Las Vegas Sands Corp. and Kellogg Company were outweighed by losses from stocks like Seadrill Ltd. and BG Group Plc. The document discusses challenges faced by the fund, changes made to reduce risk, and the manager's views on current market conditions and outlook.
The document provides an investment weekly market update from Goodbody Wealth Management. It discusses recent bond market volatility and recommends a short-duration bond strategy. It also summarizes the results of the UK election and its positive impact on reducing political uncertainty. Additionally, it comments on recent easing measures by China's central bank and remaining cautious on emerging markets due to China's economic performance.
But resolving this legacy issue with continued application of past interventionist instruments does not incentivize the much needed structural reforms and private capital market activities. Financial repression has induced a re-allocation of capital across markets and greatly enhanced the role of public markets at the detriment of private market activities. Artificially low – or in some cases even negative – interest rates break the credit intermediation channel which can crowd out viable private investors.
This document summarizes a market perspective report from July 2016. It discusses how central banks have driven interest rates to record lows and even negative levels in some countries in an attempt to stimulate economic growth. However, global GDP growth remains sluggish despite enormous monetary stimulus efforts. As a result, government debt levels have increased substantially. The long-term implications of prolonged low and negative interest rates on economies and financial markets remains uncertain.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook and key trends affecting consumer products companies in 2014. It summarizes the economic situations and forecasts for major countries and regions including the Eurozone, Japan, China, United States, United Kingdom, and emerging markets like Brazil. Political uncertainties could impact economic predictions, but modest growth is expected in the Eurozone while Japan and the US are recovering nicely and the UK is seeing a rebound in growth. China is slowing and implementing reforms to transition to a more sustainable economy.
Deloitte global powers of consumer products 2014vishalsingh660
To start a new section, hold down the apple+shift keys and click
to release this object and type the section title in the box below.
Global Powers of Consumer Products 2014
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (DTTL) is
pleased to present the 7th annual
Global Powers of
Consumer Products
. This report identifies the 250 largest
consumer products companies around the world based
on publicly available data for the fiscal year 2012
(encompassing companies’ fiscal years ended through
June 2013).
The report also provides an outlook for the global
economy, an analysis of market capitalization in the
industry, a look at M&A activity in the consumer
products sector, and a discussion of major trends
affecting consumer products companies.
Trekking markets & more with InvestrekkInves Trekk
The report presents a summary of the Indian market activity during the week ended 27 June 2021. It also provides some important insights about the global market trends and Indian Market outlook for the Week beginning 28 June 2021.
- The Total Asset Partners portfolio returned 1.54% for Q3 and 6.27% year-to-date, outperforming fixed income but lagging the S&P 500 while maintaining lower volatility.
- The portfolio remains defensively positioned with 35% in equities, 45% in fixed income, and 19.4% in cash as valuations across asset classes appear expensive and economic growth remains weak.
- Key concerns include declining corporate profits, high debt levels, the risk of higher interest rates, deteriorating high yield credit fundamentals, and expensive equity valuations leaving little room for further expansion.
WHV Investment Management changed its name in 2012 to better describe the firm's activities in fixed income and equity asset classes. In 2011, the firm saw an increase in key financial metrics like EBITDA and net income despite a decline in assets under management due to market declines. Some accomplishments included establishing management by objectives between the board and top management and implementing several recommendations from a consulting firm. The outlook discusses economic growth trends and expectations for 2012.
[JP] Strtaegy Brief / Global Convertible Opportunities / December 2015NN Investment Partners
1) The document describes the NN Global Convertible Opportunities fund, which invests in convertible bonds.
2) It aims to outperform its benchmark index by 200 basis points annually through a process of bottom-up credit analysis and selecting bonds with optimal upside potential.
3) In December, the fund returned -1.47%, underperforming its benchmark by -0.03% as markets weakened amid disappointing central bank actions and slowing growth in China.
[LATAM EN] Strategy Brief / Global Convertible Opportunities / December 2015NN Investment Partners
1) The document describes the NN Global Convertible Opportunities fund, which invests in convertible bonds.
2) It aims to outperform its benchmark index by 200 basis points annually through a process of bottom-up credit analysis and selecting bonds with optimal upside potential.
3) In December, the fund returned -1.47%, underperforming its benchmark by -0.03% as markets weakened amid disappointing central bank actions and slowing growth in China.
[4:55 p.m.] Bryan Oates
OJPs are becoming a critical resource for policy-makers and researchers who study the labour market. LMIC continues to work with Vicinity Jobs’ data on OJPs, which can be explored in our Canadian Job Trends Dashboard. Valuable insights have been gained through our analysis of OJP data, including LMIC research lead
Suzanne Spiteri’s recent report on improving the quality and accessibility of job postings to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Decoding job postings: Improving accessibility for neurodivergent job seekers
Improving the quality and accessibility of job postings is one way to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcripttscdzuip
办理美国UNCC毕业证书制作北卡大学夏洛特分校假文凭定制Q微168899991做UNCC留信网教留服认证海牙认证改UNCC成绩单GPA做UNCC假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请北卡罗莱纳大学夏洛特分校University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcript
South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcriptynfqplhm
办理美国SDSU毕业证书制作南达科他州立大学假文凭定制Q微168899991做SDSU留信网教留服认证海牙认证改SDSU成绩单GPA做SDSU假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请南达科他州立大学South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcript
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby...Donc Test
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby, Hodge, Verified Chapters 1 - 13, Complete Newest Version Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition by Libby, Hodge, Verified Chapters 1 - 13, Complete Newest Version Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Chapters Download Stuvia Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Ebook Download Stuvia Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Chapters Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Ebook Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Download Stuvia
Abhay Bhutada, the Managing Director of Poonawalla Fincorp Limited, is an accomplished leader with over 15 years of experience in commercial and retail lending. A Qualified Chartered Accountant, he has been pivotal in leveraging technology to enhance financial services. Starting his career at Bank of India, he later founded TAB Capital Limited and co-founded Poonawalla Finance Private Limited, emphasizing digital lending. Under his leadership, Poonawalla Fincorp achieved a 'AAA' credit rating, integrating acquisitions and emphasizing corporate governance. Actively involved in industry forums and CSR initiatives, Abhay has been recognized with awards like "Young Entrepreneur of India 2017" and "40 under 40 Most Influential Leader for 2020-21." Personally, he values mindfulness, enjoys gardening, yoga, and sees every day as an opportunity for growth and improvement.
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
5 Tips for Creating Standard Financial ReportsEasyReports
Well-crafted financial reports serve as vital tools for decision-making and transparency within an organization. By following the undermentioned tips, you can create standardized financial reports that effectively communicate your company's financial health and performance to stakeholders.
In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
2. Contents
3 Introduction to Banque Heritage
9 Focus on EAM services
13 Macro views
14 Socially Responsible Investments 2.0
22 TerraEquitas SRI Allocator
28 Appendice
32 Disclaimer
27 Contacts
Investment Services July 202
3. July 20Investment Services3
Banque Heritage in a nutshell
Active
industry
consolidator
Family
owned
From 5 to
3’000 clients
230
employees
170 years of
merchant
history
Founded in
1986 as a
family office
Banking
license in
2004
CHF 4.9bn
AuM
4. July 20Investment Services4
Timeline
Banque Heritage is a young, yet active financial institution
• Strong growth, both organic and through acquisitions
• Truly Swiss footprint, with offices in Geneva, Zurich and Sion
• Always looking for new and innovative partnerships
5. July 20Investment Services5
Ownership
Banque Heritage is controlled by the Esteve
Family who is also the primary shareholder of
ECOM Agroindustrial:
• Majority owner
• No dividend distribution policy
• Stable and strong supporter of expansion
plans
76%
17%
7%
Ownership Structure
Esteve Family
Private & Management
Treasury
ECOM: A leading global commodity merchant
7. July 20Investment Services7
A full range of services
Private Banking
Custody
E-banking
Card solutions
Safekeeping
Trading access
FX trading platform
Dedicated RMs
Asset Management
Advisory
Discretionary management
Macro research
Equity / Bond lists
In-house specialty products
Open architecture
Structured products
Asset Services
Transaction services
Global custody
Credit facilities
Lombard loans
Succession & Estate planning
Manager on-boarding
Tax advice
8. July 20Investment Services8
Our edge
Flat
structure
. Access to senior management
. Rapid decision making process
. Low turnover ensures long-lasting quality
relationships
Aligned
interests
. Shareholders invest alongside our
clients
. Family office roots ensure the perennial
nature of our institution
. Our entrepreneurial mindset allows us
to seize opportunities, to the benefit of
our clients
AM
offering
. Full asset management and investment services
offering
. Access to macro research and investment ideas
out of the box
. Regulatory support for MIFID II / LSFIN
Reactivit
y
. 60% of the bank’s AuM come from
countries with high economic growth
.Used to fast changing environments
. We identify upcoming problems and
seek solutions proactively
9. July 20Investment Services9
EAM services, at the heart of our business
33% of our
AuM and 25%
of our revenues
Dedicated team
of 12
60 active
counterparties
Flexible
approach
Full investment
services
Chief Executive
Officer
Marcos Esteve
Head of PB &
Investment
Services
François Oesch
Head EAM &
Zurich Team
Martin Brenner
Zurich
4 RMs & 1
Assistant
Head EAM
Geneva
Luciano Ciriolo
Geneva
3 RMs and 2
Assistants
10. July 20Investment Services10
Partnership with external asset managers
Acquisition Relationship
Management
Risk
Assessment /
Client
Profiling
Advisory
Discretionary
Management
Client
Reporting
Implementation
Execution &
Support
Custody
Services
Producer Internalized Delegated to Banque Heritage
External Financial
Advisor
Internalized Delegated to Banque Heritage
External Asset
Manager
Internalized Delegated to Banque Heritage
A flexible and bespoke framework that suits your needs
Our value-added services include:
• Stable and senior RM team
• Multicultural, multilingual
• Extras: private placements, after hour trading, etc.
• Deep knowledge of both onshore & offshore markets
11. Investment
Services
Private
Banking
External Asset
Managers
Asset
Services
The Banque Heritage Investment Services
department is a full-fledged asset management
platform working exclusively to the benefit of
Banque Heritage’s various lines of business.
Investment Services are fully integrated across
our institution’s entire value chain, offering
among others:
• Macro & strategy research
• Direct investment advisory
• Fund advisory
• Bespoke products
• Discretionary management services
Investment services
Investment Services July 2011
12. Investment services team
Investment Services July 2012
Specialists
Implementation&
Advisory
Jean-Christophe Rochat,
CIIA
Advisory
Onur Von Burg, CIIA
Discretionary Portfolio
Management / Advisory
Toni Apostoloski
Discretionary Portfolio
Management / Investment
Proposals
Jean-Christophe Rochat,
CIIA
Team Head
Jean-Charles
Crouzet
Strategy
Markus Koch,
CFA
Fixed Income
Stéphane
Trezzini
European
Equities
Michel
Mazenauer,
CAIA
US Equities &
Alternatives
Mikaël
Safrana, CIIA
Funds, Private
Markets & Alt.
UCITS
13. July 20Investment Services13
Macro views – Global economic environment
Our Scenario
The peak of globalisation is probably behind us.
The rising risk of the US/China trade conflict has been
very impactful on financial market volatility.
This trade war seems to matter because it happens in a
context of policy tightening and a softer global economy.
Despite a resilient US economy, the rest of the world has
entered a soft patch: Europe, Japan and China.
Corporate profits and large share buy-backs are clearly
supporting risk assets.
As a result, the positioning of our portfolio has slightly
changed over the past month as we have reduced our
equity allocation to U/W and we have decided to increase
the duration of our sovereign bond investments back to
neutral and take our commodity exposure to a slight
overweight.
Tailwinds
Large central banks’ balance sheets
Buoyant investors’ sentiment
Strong earnings momentum globally
Headwinds
Synchronised normalisation of monetary policies on a
global scale
Trade wars & (geo)political risks
Asset valuations are stretched
Things to monitor
- - Accelerating inflation in DM countries
UW OW
Equity
Fixed Income
Alternative Investments
UW OW
UW OW
Commodities
UW OW
Cash
UW OW
14. Current Tailwinds
Central Banks Balance Sheets, Earnings Growth & Corporate Buy-backs
Source: Banque Heritage, Bloomberg14
Central banks are still providing a non-negligible tailwind to the markets. $22.6 trillion total assets, $3 trillion over past year
Trump’s tax reform and spending bills favour equity buy-backs and improve corporate earnings (+18% expected for Q1)
S&P companies are expected to spend $800bil in stock buy-backs & another $500bil in dividend. Total $1.3 trillion,. a +23%
increase over last year
A weak US Dollar is also helping companies generating a good share of their sales abroad
July 20
15. Current Tailwinds
A Resilient US Economic Backdrop
Source: Banque Heritage, Bloomberg15
Macroeconomic indicators still solid in the US:
Housing
Job market
Freight volumes (+12% YoY)
Consumer sentiment
Second longest economic cycle supported by strong sentiment post Trump election. Tax reform and unfunded spending
revived the cycle’s strength
Main question remains: have we reached the end of the current economic cycle?
Small Business Sentiment (Blue) vs.
U. of Michigan Sentiment
July 20
16. Current Headwinds
From 2012 to 2016, for every rate hike, global central banks implemented 3 rate cuts. Since 2016, for every cut, there is 1.75
rate hike
The chart below shows central banks target rates for the Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ. The GDP-weighed five year change in target
rates turned positive in September 2017.
The bottom right chart highlights the fact that the correlation between financial stress and the average number of rate hikes
expected by the fed, ECB, BoE and BoC is no longer negative.
We are transitioning from a global synchronised QE into a global synchronised QT
Synchronised Interest Rates Normalisation,
Source: Bianco Research16 July 20
17. Current Headwinds
Absolute and relative macroeconomic data weaker around the global (except the US) as shown below
Europe has clearly decelerated at quite a fast pace. Slowdown led by Germany (impact from trade war and a strong €)
but also France
Strong Yen is starting to bite into Japan’s macro backdrop too. Domestic scandal involving PM Abe could slow reforms
But China shows growing signs of momentum loss: decreasing loan growth, decreasing IP and fixed assets
investments.
Shift from an economy based on investments to one based on consumption still current. Expect lower Chinese growth
level going
Global Slow Down Led By Europe and China
Source: Bianco Research, Bloomberg, Heritage17 July 20
18. Things to Monitor
The chart below highlights the fact that inflation’s momentum outside the US has slowed back to one-year averages after a very
concerted period of growth from October 2016 through March 2017.
Wage Inflation gauges in the US are still trending up but are lagging the unemployment rate, the NFIB small business hiring
plans and the output gap.
History shows that wages have a 1-year lag with the unemployment rate before they rise (bottom right chart)
The weaker US Dollar acts as an inflation accelerator
Fed members are slowly becoming more hawkish. A gap opens between Fed’s projections and the market’s expectations.
Is Inflation on the Verge of Accelerating? Mounting Geopolitical Tensions?
Source: Bianco Research, GaveKal18 July 20
19. Risk Environment: Uncertainties Building
Long-Term Tactical Matrix: The Goldilocks Scenario is Clearly At risk
Growth
Expensive
Cheap
Contracting Expanding
NEGATIVE NEUTRAL POSITIVE
CAUTION
WARRANTED
CONFIDENCE
WARRANTED
Valuations
Stock markets’ volatility remains elevated but bonds and
currencies volatilities subdued.
Investors sentiment is diminishing but stock market goes higher.
Feels like it is climbing a wall of worries. Earnings season kick off
is to blame for that as traders are positioning from the long side.
Rebound done on low volumes for now. Caution still required.
The risk model below in grey is the aggregation of all asset class
volatilities.
Source: Banque Heritage, Bloomberg19 July 20
20. July 20Investment Services20
Asset Allocation
U/W EQUITIES
o U/W US
• O/W Financials, Energy
• U/W Telecom, Real Estate, Utilities
o U/W Europe
• O/W Financials, Energy, IT
• U/W Utilities
U/W FIXED INCOME
o U/W Sovereign Bonds
• Neutral Duration
o U/W Credit
O/W Alternatives
o O/W Global Macro
o O/W Relative Value
O/W Commodities
o O/W Precious Metals
Currencies
o O/W Yen
o U/W CHF vs. EUR
o Neutral USD
UW OW
Equity
Fixed Income
Alternative Investments
UW OW
UW OW
Commodities
UW OW
Cash
UW OW
21. TerraEquitas
July 20Investment Services21
Prise de conscience
Quelques dates importantes
Investissements socialement responsables
Notre mission
Le produit
Les investisseurs
Engagement auprès des ONG de développement
22. July 20Investment Services22
Prise de conscience
• L’explosion démographique que vit
actuellement l’Humanité rend évidente la
nécessité de prendre en charge le devenir de
notre nombre qui, d’après les estimations de
l’ONU, devrait dépasser 9 milliards d’âmes d’ici
2050.
• Si tous les habitants de la terre adoptaient le
mode de vie Suisse, il faudrait 2.8 planètes pour
satisfaire les besoins de l’humanité (WWF,
rapport planète vivante 2014).
• Nous consommons plus que nous ne
pouvons produire !
• A long terme, cela provoquera un recul de la
biodiversité entraînant raréfaction des ressources
et amenant inévitablement faim, instabilité et
conflits armés.
• Nous devons rechercher un nouvel équilibre
afin d’assurer une meilleure existence pour les
générations futures.
• C’est cela notre mission !
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
19501960197019801990200020102020203020402050
World Population: 1950-2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, July 2015
23. July 20Investment Services23
Quelques dates importantes
1976 : Catastrophe de Seveso
1984 : Catastrophe de Bhopal
1986 : Catastrophe de Tchernobyl
1989 : Marée noire de Exxon Valdez
1999 : Marée noire d’Erika
2000 : Naufrage du Levoli Sun
2001 : Explosion de AZF de Toulouse
2002 : Marée noire du pétrolier Prestige
2006 : Affaire du Pétrolier Probo Koala
2010 : Explosion d’une plateforme BP en Louisiane
2011 : Accident nucléaire de Fukushima
24. July 20Investment Services24
Investissement socialement responsable
• On parle d’investissement éthique, responsable, social,
communautaire, durable mais plus communément d’investissement
socialement responsable (ISR)
• Il intègre les éléments non strictement financiers dans l’allocation
d’actifs et essaie d’atteindre un certain niveau de performances mais
pas à n’importe quel prix et de réconcilier éthique et finance.
• La Suisse a été un pionnier en ce qui concerne l’intégration du risque
environnemental, qu’il s’agisse de critères d’exclusion, de meilleures
sociétés ou environnementaux, sociaux et de bonne gouvernance.
• Deux questions se sont posées :
• Les bénéfices à long terme d'une sélection ISR compensent ils le risque de
concentration dans l’univers d’investissement ?
• S’agit il d’un phénomène de niche ou y a-t-il un véritable engouement pour ce type
d’investissement ?
25. July 20Investment Services25
Mission
• Il s’agit de mieux répartir les richesses et de réduire les inégalités
• Il s’agit d’aider l’ensemble des êtres humains sur la planète sans aucune
discrimination à se développer et obtenir les moyens économiques
nécessaires à une meilleure qualité de vie.
• Il s’agit, au delà des critères d’investissements ISR, définissant un cadre
de sélection de titres et une performance pour les investisseurs,
De partage
Pour cela, des Organisations non Gouvernementales (ONG) ou des
associations ayant les projets de développement les plus prometteurs,
recevront une partie des frais de fonctionnement du produit.
26. Produit - TerraEquitas SRI Asset Allocator
Nous avons créé un produit financier unique permettant d’associer performance pour les
investisseurs et aide au développement économique par le biais des ONG.
Disposer de nos richesses est une chance. Nous voulons aider l’ensemble des êtres humains,
sans aucune discrimination, à se développer et à obtenir les moyens économiques nécessaires
à une meilleure qualité de vie.
Dans ce but, nous lançons un produit d’allocation d’actifs à caractère socialement
responsable de la plus haute qualité, dont les critères d’investissement sont conformes aux 17
principes du pacte mondial des nations unies. Il s’agit de réconcilier la finance avec l’individu
et ses véritables aspirations. On peut les résumer ainsi:
Les investisseurs privés et institutionnels qui investissent dans le fonds soutiennent les projets
de développement d’une fédération d’ONG par le versement d’une partie des frais de
fonctionnement du fonds à ces ONG. Celles-ci sont sollicitées à investir leurs liquidités dans le
fonds.
Paix, justice,
droits humains
Santé Education
Infrastructures
& Activités
Energies
renouvelables
Habitat
July 20Investment Services26
28. Engagement auprès des ONG de développements
Aide
octroyée
aux grandes
comme aux
petites ONG
Diversificati
on des
projets afin
de
maximiser
l’impact
Rapport et
suivi des
projets
Allocation
dynamique
année
après
année
Sélection
rigoureuse
des ONG
July 20Investment Services28
Les ONG peuvent parfois être soutenues par la DDC ou être choisies avec rigueur parmi celles qui ont :
• Les projets les plus prometteurs
• Un rapport favorable entre les frais de fonctionnement et ceux pour soutenir les projets
29. OBJECTIF
Offrir un produit d’allocation d’actifs global, balancé et diversifié, dans le cadre d’une
gestion socialement responsable
TYPE DE GESTION
Horizon à moyen / long terme visant à générer un niveau modéré de revenus annuels.
L’appréciation en capital est une composante clé du rendement total du portefeuille.
FRAIS DES GESTION 1.40% + 0.20% (reversé aux ONGs)
DEVISE DE REFERENCE EUR – disponible en CHF hedgé
INVESTISSEMENTS
AUTORISES
Obligations d’états
Obligations d’entreprises Investment Grade & HY
Actions européennes & américaines
Actions des pays émergents
Immobilier liquide
EMETTEUR Exane
CONSEIL STRATEGIQUE Bluecap SA
REGLES
ADDITIONNELLES
Chaque sous-jacent doit posséder une notation ISR. Le portefeuille global doit afficher
un score ISR de haute qualité
Allocation maximum par position: 15%
Aperçu du produit
July 20Investment Services29
30. Une gestion robuste et dynamique
Philosophie d’investissement
Une gestion prudente et
raisonnée:
- Un contrôle constant des
risques
- Une approche basée sur la
préservation du capital et la
puissance des intérêts
composés
- De fortes convictions et
l’adossement à des expertises
externes de renom
Allocation stratégique
Revue annuelle de nos
différents scénarios et
allocation de référence sur la
période:
- Eléments géopolitiques
- Tendances macro-
économiques
- Valorisations long terme
- Caractéristiques propres à
chaque classe d’actifs
Allocation Tactique
Revue mensuelle et
positionnement tactique:
- Analyse technique
- Valorisations court terme
- Momentum
- Valeur relative
- Opportunités d’arbitrage
Implémentatio
n Portefeuille
- Sélection bottom-up sur
base financière et extra
financière
- Pondérations
- Revues régulières de
métriques financières:
alpha, beta, sharpe,
upside/downside capture,
etc.
- Ajustements
opportunistes
July 20Investment Services30
31. Une sélection de fonds « best in class »
• 70’000+ fonds
• Filtre quantitatif (taille,
historique, juridiction, etc.)
• Analyse qualitative
Base de données Morningstar
• 355 fonds
• Organisme reconnu de notation ISR
• Fonds doit être présent dans leur liste
• Si pas présent ou performance
financière trop faible, sélection sur base
du 2e filtre
Label ISR Novethic
• Sélection de fonds notés au moins «above
average» selon la méthodologie de classement
Morningstar
• Notation moyenne du portefeuille >= «above
average»
2e Filtre ISR
• Construction du portefeuille
• Poids établis sur la base de l’allocation d’actifs
8-12
Positions
July 20Investment Services31
33. July 20Investment Services33
Performance
Performance since launch (as of 12.04.2018) : -2.28%
Annualized volatility: 5.34%
• In line with Euro Stoxx 50 (-2.17%)
• Above SIX SMI in EUR (-10.43%)
• Below Barclays Pan European Aggregate 5-7 YR
(0.3%)
34. Une équipe de spécialistes
Eric Serra, Bluecap SA
Master en gestion internationale, HEC Genève (mémoire
sur les ISR en Suisse)
Actif depuis les années 80 (Crédit Suisse, Banca Monte
dei Paschi, Bank Von Erst)
Indépendant depuis 2003, Président de la commission
d’éthique des Conseils en Gestion Indépendants.
Jean-Christophe Rochat, Banque Heritage SA
Master en finance d’entreprises, Université Lyon III
Titulaire du CIIA, SFAA
Managing Director, en charge de l’asset management
Analyste / Gérant SRI Global Equity Fund, Lombard
Odier 2005-2009
Mikaël Safrana, Banque Heritage SA
B.Com en Finance & Stratégie de l’Université McGill à
Montréal. Titulaire du CIIA, SFAA
Directeur, en charge de la sélection de fonds long-only
En charge de la politique ISR de la banque Lombard
Odier de 2009 à 2011
Bluecap est une société dont
l'activité englobe la gestion
de patrimoine, principalement
d'avoirs privés, et le service
de conseil en prévoyance
Banque Heritage est une
banque privée sous
supervision de la FINMA
active dans la gestion de
fortune et la gestion de
produits d’investissement
innovants. Ses actifs
s’élèvent à CHF 5 milliards.
July 20Investment Services34
36. Fund selection methodology
Universe
Screening
• Based on the Morningstar Database
• Limits by size, domicile, currencies, liquidity, fees, etc.
• Can include multiples, KPIs based, mixed searches, etc.
Performanc
e Reporting
• Typically on 5y figures, sometimes 3y
• Quantitative screen based on «buy & hold» metrics
• Aims to identify funds with the best risk / return characteristics. Focus on volatility & behavior profile
• Establishes a ranking and basis for qualitative assessment
Qualitative
Assessmen
t
• Depending on the strategy, focuses on the top 5 to 12 peers
• Compares performance (discrete & rolling), upside/downside capture, risk/return,
style, sector exposure, etc.
Selection
• A shortlist of 3 funds is further established based on the above and in-
depth reviewed
• Uses conference calls, on-site visits, due diligence questionnaires, open
source information
• Selection of one final products. Internal documentation drafting
Review
• Recommended funds are reviewed between every
quarter and year, depending on the strategy
• Typically includes yearly on-site visits
• Uses quantitative filters to identify style drift, liquidity
mismatch, poorer performance, etc.
July 20Investment Services36
39. This document, as well as the information contained herein, is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed
as an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell or subscribe to any financial instrument or banking services mentioned herein,
nor should be construed or considered as a contractual document.
This document is not directed at, intended for distribution to or publication for use by any person in any jurisdiction where such
distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or would subject Heritage Bank Ltd, or any of its
affiliates, to any registration, licensing or other requirement within such jurisdiction. If you have any specific questions regarding
distribution restrictions please contact your relationship manager.
This document is not the result of a financial analysis within the meaning of the Swiss Banking Directive on Independence Financial
Research, which does not apply to this publication. Accordingly, the views expressed in this document are no official
recommendations of the Bank and should be considered as short term market comments for informational purposes only. As such,
the views herein are only indicative and may be subject to frequent changes without prior notice.
The opinions contained in this document do not take into consideration specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular
needs of any person who may receive this document. Each person must make his own independent analysis of the risks (including
legal, regulatory, tax) together with professional advisors, if necessary, before making any investment decision regarding any financial
instrument or financial market mentioned herein.
All information and opinions as well as prices, market valuations and calculations contained herein are subject to change without
notice. Its content is intended for the recipient only and should not be reproduced, published, circulated or disclosed to any other
person without prior consent of Heritage Bank Ltd. herein.
This document is intended primarily for internal staff of the Heritage Group but may be distributed upon request to institutional or
qualified investors but not to retail investors. Investors shall in particular bear in mind that past performance should not be taken as an
indication or guarantee of current or future performance and no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made by Heritage
Bank regarding future performance.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however Heritage Bank does not make any
representation whatsoever as to its accuracy or completeness. Accordingly, Heritage Bank accepts no liability for any loss arising
from the use of this document.
Investment Services July 2039
40. Contacts
Banque Heritage SA
Investment Services
61, Route de Chêne
Case Postale 6600
1211 Genève 6
Switzerland
Tel: +41 58 2200 000
pbis@heritage.ch
www.heritage.ch