Petrobras, Brazil's national oil company, expects oil demand to continue growing strongly through 2030. To meet this demand, major investments and technological advances will be needed to develop new resources in challenging environments like ultra-deep water and non-conventional sources. Petrobras itself plans to significantly increase its production, with much of the growth coming from its massive pre-salt oil fields off the coast of Brazil, representing a major technological undertaking. While oil will remain the leading energy source, alternatives like biofuels, electric vehicles, and efficiency gains will increasingly contribute to the global energy mix over the long-term.
Similar to Apresentação do Presidente José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo no Ceraweek 2010 Global Oil Plenary em Houston - Texas (disponível somente em inglês)
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Similar to Apresentação do Presidente José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo no Ceraweek 2010 Global Oil Plenary em Houston - Texas (disponível somente em inglês) (20)
Apresentação do Presidente José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo no Ceraweek 2010 Global Oil Plenary em Houston - Texas (disponível somente em inglês)
1. José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo
CERAWEEK 2010
Petrobras’s CEO
Global Oil Plenary March 9th, 2010
1
2. DISCLAIMER
The presentation may contain forecasts about future CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR
events. Such forecasts merely reflect the US INVESTORS
expectations of the Company's management. Such
terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", The United States Securities and Exchange
"intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with Commission permits oil and gas companies, in
similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved
such forecasts. These predictions evidently involve reserves that a company has demonstrated by
risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by actual production or conclusive formation tests to
the Company. Therefore, the future results of be economically and legally producible under
operations may differ from current expectations, and existing economic and operating conditions. We
readers must not base their expectations exclusively use certain terms in this presentation, such as oil
on the information presented herein. The Company is and gas resources, that the SEC’s guidelines
not obliged to update the presentation/such forecasts strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the
in light of new information or future developments. SEC.
2
3. SCENARIOS FOR OIL DEMAND
• Expansion of conventional
1
20 resources in high potential regions
10
1 (MM bpd) Iraq, Saudi Arabia, West Africa,
Caspian Sea
1
00
• Expansion of conventional
90 resources in little-explored areas
North Africa, Siberia, other areas in
80
the Middle East
70 SUPPLY • Expansion of production in
60
CHALLENGES Greenfield areas and/or
Observed environmentally sensitive areas
50 Pre-Salt, Arctic, Ultra deep water
decline
40 (USA)
30
• Expansion of production of non
conventional oils Oil Sands
20 (Canada), Shale Oil (USA),Orinoco
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Strip (Venezuela), Synthetic
products (XTL)
How to fulfill the gap of oil
production in the future
3
4. NEW DEMANDS FOR SUPPLIERS
Expansion of production in greenfield areas Expansion of production of non
and/or environmentally sensitive areas conventional oils
Supply Challenges
• Rigs and equipments
• Human resources
• Environmental constraints
New Barrels • Regulatory environment
• Geopolitics
• Higher depth • Financial resources
• Reservoir maturity
• Non conventional resources
• Extreme climate conditions
Demand Adjustment
•New engines
• Alternative energy sources
• Improvements in logistics
• Scale of operations
4
5. WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL
2030 Change
per annum
+1.3% p.y.
+1.3% p.y. 685
6% Biomass +1.1% p.a.
1%
2008 1%
7%
Solar, wind +4.2% p.a.
6% geothermal
515
0,5% 7% Biofuels +5.3% p.a.
0,4% 6%
29%
6%
Hydro +1.4% p.a.
Q BTUs
26%
Nuclear +1.2% p.a.
22%
22% Coal +1.8% p.a.
Gas +1.3% p.a.
33% 29%
Oil +0.7% p.a.
Source: Business as Usual Scenario Petrobras
2008 2030
o The demand for oil will continue to be predominant in 2030, however, biofuels will present the
highest growth rate
5
6. DEVELOPMENT OF NEXT GENERATION ETHANOL PRODUCTION PROCESSES
Technology Evolution
Steps
2006 - 2010 2011 - 2015 2016 - 2021
Dissemination of
technology
Next Generation
Deployment of Ethanol
technology
Business Strategy
Synergy with Distillery - Mill
Prototype Economic efficiency
(Demonstration)
Research &
Recombinant microorganism - C5 and C6 fermentation • World
Development Cellulose production • Brazil
Trends:
o On the short term: investment is concentrated on ethanol from 1st generation from sugar cane
o On the long term: increases in Research and Development will help to develop 2nd generation ethanol
6
7. SHARE OF LIGHT VEHICLES SALES BY ENGINE TECHNOLOGY
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2009 20 30 2009 20 30 2009 20 30
ICE Gasoline ICE Flexfuel ICE Diesel
Hybrid Plug-in Electric
7 Source: Business as Usual Scenario Petrobras
8. PETROBRAS’ PRODUCTION GROWTH
5,729
223
409
Petrobras Total Production 7.7% p.y.
(x 1000 boe/d) 1.177
3,655
5.6% p.y. 131
9.7% p.y. 210
2,525 634
2,400 97
2,217 2,297 2,301
141
1,810 2,037 2,020 101 110 100
1,635 96 124 316
22 85 94 142 126
24 163 321
35 161 168 277 273 3.920
44 274
252 251 265
232 2.680
1.855 1,971 Pre-Salt
1.684 1.778 1.792
1.500 1.540 1.493
1.335 1,183
152 Pre-Salt
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ..... 2013 ..... 2020
Oil production - Brazil Gas production - Brazil Oil production - International Gas production - International
o Petrobras' production growth will contribute to supply the oil demand
8
9. THE PRE-SALT REGION
Total Area: 149,000 km2
Area Under Concession: 41,772 km2 (28%)
Area Not Under Concession: 107,228 km² (72%)
Area With Petrobras Interest: 35,739 km2 (24%)
Legend:
Drilled wells (BR non operator)
Drilled wells (BR operator)
Pre-Salt reservoirs
Production fields
Exploratory blocks
9
11. MAJOR TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS UNDER EVALUATION
PLANSAL - Pre-Salt Development Master Plan
Offshore
logistical hub
Water-alternating- Offshore
gas (HC or CO2) produced fluid
injection handling hubs
CO2 storage in
Extended-reach saline aquifers,
and deviated depleted fields, salt
wells (salt) caves
Pre-Salt
Flow Assurance
Definitive Deepwater
and formation
CALM buoy
damage control Development
Dry completion
systems (SPAR, Reservoir
TLP, FPDSO, …) Characterization
Offshore gas
Floating LNG storage in salt
caves
CO2 separation /
capture technology
11
12. NEW REGULATORY MODEL
Production Transfer
Sharing Pre-salt of Rights with
Agreement and compensation
Strategic Areas
Petrobras 100%
Petrobras Operator
Other companies
trough Bidding
Process
Current
Other Areas Concession
Model
There will be no regulatory changes in the areas under concession, including the
pre-salt area already granted
12
13. FINAL REMARKS
• Challenging
Environments
New Barrels • Higher Costs
• High level of
uncertainty
• Existing stock of
appliances x pace
of substitution
Demand
• Technology
Adjustment Development
• Policy Incentives
and Regulation
14. Petrobras in the Gulf of Mexico
• First FPSO and Shuttle Tanker in the US GoM:
Cascade and Chinook Fields operated by Petrobras
1st oil in mid 2010
• Technologies that are new to the US GoM:
FSHR - Free Standing Hybrid Risers
STMZ - Single Trip Multi-Zone Fracturing of Wells
• Strong presence in Lower Tertiary Discoveries:
Cascade, Chinook, St Malo, Stones and Tiber