Presented by the ANIMA Investment Network at the Annual Meeting of the MENA-OECD Working Group on Investment Policies and Promotion, March 2013

1. ANIMA-MIPOANIMA MIPO
FDI and Partnership
Observatory
4 lessons from
the crisis
MENA-OECD Investment ProgrammeMENA OECD Investment Programme
19-20 March 2013
www.anima.coop

2. Mediterranean Investment and
Partnership Observatoryp y
(ANIMA – MIPO)
11 countries Algeria Egypt Israel Jordan
6 000+
11 countries
monitored
Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan,
Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine,
Syria, Tunisia, Turkey
Projects announced since 20036,000+
FDI recorded
2,000+
B i
Projects announced since 2003…
25 qualification criteria: sector,
type of company, target and origin
t t i l d j bBusiness
partnerships
4 quarterly Used for country benchmarking,
country, amounts involved, jobs
created, etc.
q y
trend releases
y g,
economic monitoring,
business prospecting,
media analysis and
research papers
1 annual
report
Real time information
 www.anima.coop/mipo (database)
research papersreport
March 2013 © ANIMA 2013 2
 www.medmaps.eu (geographic localisation)

3. 4 lessons from the crisis 2008‐2012
FDI in the MED region in 2012:g
A good resilienceA good resilience
#1#1

4. Change in FDI flows & number of
projects in 2012p j
 € 37.0 bn FDI announced in 2012: +5% in comparison with 2010
 645 projects detected: -24% in comparison with 2010
64 523
789
844 90070 000
FDI inflows ANIMA (€m) FDI inflows UNCTAD (€m) Number of projects
53 002
51 046 42 885
621
761 784 789
562
666 645
600
700
800
50 000
60 000
projects
ws(€million)
35 145
37 272
28 036
35 313
27 184
37 061
30 135
51 046
46 369
30 038
28 734
30 301
249
306
300
400
500
30 000
40 000
Numberofp
FDIinflow
9 860
11 683
27 184
12 397
11 342
28 734249
100
200
300
10 000
20 000
00
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
March 2013 © ANIMA 2013 4

5. Change in FDI flows by countryg y y
 The global MED development trend is actually the sum of many different
situations in Arab countries (Maghreb and Mashreq) on the one hand,
and in Turkey and Israel on the other handand in Turkey and Israel on the other hand
18 000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
12 705
14 000
16 000
7 684
8 000
10 000
12 000
4 495
6 318
4 000
6 000
8 000
1 155
207
674
2 335
1
1 486
0
2 000
March 2013 © ANIMA 2013 5
Algeria Egypt Israel Jordan Lebanon Libya Morocco Palestine Syria Tunisia Turkey

6. Inward FDIs: invested amounts
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
€12.7 bn in 2012
127 projects
€6.3 bn in 2012
152 projects
Turkey
Bank, Energy,
Real estate, Agribusiness,
Di t ib ti A t ti
Israel
ITC, Energy,
Drugs, Biotech
€1.5 bn in 2012
74 projects
€0 bn in 2012
0 project
Distribution, Automotive
€0.2 bn in 2012
19 j
€4.5 bn in 2012
44 projects€2.3 bn in 2012
120 projects
Tunisia
Telecom, Energy,
Bank, Tourism,
Consulting, Software
Syria
Energy, Cement,
Real estate, Bank
€1 2012
Lebanon
Tourism & Real
estate , Bank,
Telecom, Consulting
19 projects
€0.7 bn in 2012
14 projects
€7.7 bn in 2012
68 projects
Morocco
Tourism & Real
Estate, Telecom,
Bank, Agribusiness,
Automotive
Algeria
Energy, Telecom,
Cement, Metallurgy,
Real estate
Lib
Palestine
Real estate, ITC
€1m 2012
3 projects
€1.2 bn in 2012
24 projects
Libya
Energy, Real estate,
Bank, Cement
Egypt
E T l
Jordan
March 2013 © ANIMA 2013 6
Source: ANIMA-MIPO, Announced FDI Projects
Energy, Telecom,
Real estate,
Cement, Bank
Jo da
Real estate &
Tourism, Energy,
Bank,Telecom

7. 4 lessons from the crisis 2008‐2012
I t b h iInvestors behavior
changed during the 2008‐2012 crisisg g
A more cautious approachA more cautious approach
#2#2

8. Change in partnership projects
in 2012
 Partnerships (ANIMA-MIPO): i.e. Non-Equity Modes of International
Production and Development (UNCTAD)
 505 j t d t t d i 2012 2% i i ith 2010 505 projects detected in 2012: -2% in comparison with 2010
515
600
Management contract515
377
505
400
500
erships
Management contract
Technological partnership
Development agreement
152
207
295
200
300
umberofpartn
Commercial partnership
Representative office
37
108
89
123
152
0
100
Nu
Franchise, shop, etc.
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
March 2013 © ANIMA 2013 8

9. More cautious strategies
 Decrease in the average amount of FDI projects
56 6
84,8
67,6
57 580 0
100,0
39,6 38,2
56,6
47,2 49,9
41,8 40,8
57,5
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1 500
 Less “committed” forms of investments
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
621 761 784 789
562
844
666 64537 89
108
123 152 207
295
515
377 505
500
1 000
Partnership
FDI
249 306
621 562 645
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
24%
35% 44% 47% 47% 46% 47% 49% 52%
80%
100%
Partial investment
(b fi ld JV i l
76%
65%
46%
56% 53% 53% 54% 53% 51% 48%
54%
44% 47% 47% 46% 47% 49% 52%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
(brownfield, JV, partial
acquisition, concession)
Global investment
(greenfield, subsidiary, full
acquisition)
March 2013 © ANIMA 2013 9
0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
q )

10. 4 lessons from the crisis 2008‐2012
Origin of foreign investment
The decline of Europe p
leadership
#2#2

11. Inward FDIs: number of projects
 Europe = still 45% of announced FDI in 2012 in number of projects,
but the European leadership is faltering
 Oth i Other regions:
 North America = 23%
 Gulf = 12%
Other countries (including BRICs) =14% Other countries (including BRICs) =14%
 Intra-MED = 6%
 Western investors (Europe, North America): a crisis of confidence?
377 392400
318
341
377 372
306
392
312
289
300
400
ects
Europe
G lf
152
174
158
148
123
138
204 199
150
200
Numberofproje
Gulf
USA-Canada
80 71
104
59
7836
47
123
138 136
101
62
74
78
83 87
70
92
38
50
53 50
29
57
36
100
N
Other countries
MED-11
March 2013 © ANIMA 2013 11
14 18
38 29 26 36
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

12. Inward FDIs: invested amounts
 2012 is a record year for the “Other countries” (including BRICs)
in announced FDI amounts
4 projects > €1bn : Bank Telecom & Tourism in Turkey Egypt & Algeria 4 projects > €1bn : Bank, Telecom & Tourism in Turkey, Egypt & Algeria
 FDI from the Gulf States on the rise again
 Major sectors: Bank, Real estate, Tourism and Telecom
But a rising interest in Agrifood Renewable energy Consulting But a rising interest in Agrifood, Renewable energy, Consulting...
60000
70000
FDI inflows
30 1
32785669
3360
20157
5923
40000
50000
60000
USA-Canada
FDI inflows
in € million
6714
19375
14758
8484
6223
3801
3071
3940
5656
2014
8793
5529
10766
7099
4742
4208
4992
5869
6294
20000
30000
Other countries
MED-11
lf
4550
7262
15986 16698
25999
18321
15461 17211
12775
99101843
2009
6223
2623 9631
960
1654
0
10000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Gulf
Europe
March 2013 © ANIMA 2013 12
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

13. 4 lessons from the crisis 2008‐2012
A sector rotation since 2011
Towards more inclusive
investments?
#4#4

14. 2011 and 2012: record years for
productive investmentsp
Top 5 unchanged
 Energy, Banking, Telecoms, Building and public works and Cementgy, g, , g p
But the crisis has favoured strategic sectors for the region
 Software, Automobiles, Medicines: a slow but constant rise, ,
 Agrifood, Distribution, Consulting: encouraging trend in 2011 but a
decline in 2012
 Aeronautics and Mechanics: a good performance in 2012g p
 cf. ANIMA/CMI survey (2011): most effective sectors in terms
of job creation
March 2013 © ANIMA 2013 14

15. Boosting EuroMed MSMEs
Emphasise current FDI trends
 Regional cluster initiatives to make the Mediterranean attractive ong
GLOBAL SPECIALTIES: Agrifood, Logistics, ICT, Media, Medicines,
Automotive and Aeronautics industries, Distribution, etc.
 Develop national aftercare strategies to boost reinvestments
( t ti l f €10 15 b )(potential of €10-15 bn)
2%
5%
Global FDI inflows : MED-11 share (UNCTAD)
2,5% 2,4%
1 8%
3,7%
4,2%
3,0%
3,3% 3,2%
2,8%
2,6%3%
4%
0,8%
1,4%
1,8%
0%
1%
2%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
March 2013 © ANIMA 2013 15

16. Promoting more inclusive investments
The EDILE initiative
 Developing better investment projects around the Mediterranean:p g p j
more inclusive activities, lower impact on the environment, higher local
participation (jobs, etc.)
 Mixing territories and financing institutions
 Building a referential for evaluating project global performance
 Take investment inclusiveness into account
 Quantity and quality of jobs, economic spillovers and subcontracting,
compatibilit ith co nt economic and te ito ial st ategcompatibility with country economic and territorial strategy
 Leverage on local banks to drive investments to more inclusiveness,
by associating Development Finance Institutions
 Improve local governance for project appraisal Improve local governance for project appraisal
 Associate local authorities, CCI, Business Federations,
investment authorities, civil society
March 2013 © ANIMA 2013 16

17. Thank you for your attention
 Emmanuel NOUTARY, General Delegate Emmanuel NOUTARY, General Delegate
Emmanuel.noutary@anima.coop
 Zoé LUÇON, Project Manager
zoe lucon@anima coopzoe.lucon@anima.coop
 ANIMA Investment Network
11b rue Saint Ferréol
13001 Marseille – FR
T. +33(0) 4 9611 6760
www anima coopwww.anima.coop