Presented at Let´s Talk Coffee organized by Sustainable Harvest. Describes production, economic and social impacts of coffee rust (roya) in Central America and other affected countries, and the action plan adopted in Central America.

1. Coffee Rust: Impacts and Actions
Amy Angel
Let´s Talk Coffee
El Salvador, October 2013

2. Incidence of Coffee Rust
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Nicaragua
Panamá
Perú
México
Dominican Rep.
Total
Coffee Area
(hct)
93,774
152,187
276,479
282,513
126,154
19,490
415,000
769,786
131,250
2,266,633
Source: CATIE, ICO
% of Area
Affected by
Roya 2012/13
64%
71%
59%
30%
36%
32%
43%
10%
46%
35%
Has fallen in most
áreas in 13/14
Steady or worse in
Guatemala
In Mexico, will
increase to 30% in
13/14
Goal to reduce to 20%
in Peru by December
2013
Severity in affected
areas in El Salvador:
pruning in 76%, 12%
recepa, 2% new
plants, 11% no action

3. Production in Central America
6000
1000 60kg bags
5000
4000
Honduras
Guatemala
3000
Costa Rica
Nicaragua
2000
El Salvador
1000
0
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14
Sources: ICO, USDA, media reports
Total for CA fell 15%
from 11/12 to
12/13, and will fall
19% more from
12/13 to 13/14

4. Production in Other Rust Affected
Countries
14,000
Shows
Colombia´s
effective fight
against rust
1000 60kg bags
12,000
10,000
8,000
Colombia
Peru
6,000
Mexico
4,000
2,000
0
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14
Sources: ICO, USDA, media reports
Will fall 21% in
Peru and 25% in
Mexico from
11/12 to 13/14
(2 yrs)

5. Export Value from Central America
Steepest
declines in El
Salvador and
Guatemala
4000
3500
3450
US$ million
3000
El Salvador
2500
Nicaragua
2000
1570
Costa Rica
1500
Guatemala
1000
Honduras
500
0
10/11
* Projected value
11/12
12/13
13/14*
Volume falls
22% but value
falls 55% from
10/11 to 13/14

6. Percentage of Areas Planted with
Varieties Susceptible to Coffee Rust
Avg in CA 80.2%
100%
90%
90.0%
94.3%
86.0%
80.0%
80%
82.0%
70%
60%
50.0%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua
Source: CATIE
Panama

7. Age of Coffee Plantations
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
less than 10 yrs
Source: OIRSA
11 to 20 yrs
more than 20 yrs
Data not available for Honduras, but is known to have
younger plantations.

8. Other Compounding Factors
•
•
•
•
•
Greater losses among small scale farmers
Other plagues and diseases; climate change
Lower quality – less income from differentials
Lower price and smaller crop - lower credit
No good solutions for organic production

9. Coffee Rust not only destroyed my
farm, but also my dreams.
- Ernestina Martínez,
Ojo de
Agua, Honduras

10. Estimates of Average Gross Annual
Income for Coffee Farmers
16,000
Falls 56.5% on avg for CA in 4
yrs
14,000
12,000
Cost of production has also
increased from fighting rust
US$
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
10/11
Honduras
Guatemala
11/12
Costa Rica
12/13
Nicaragua
13/14*
El Salvador

11. Employment on Coffee Farms
in El Salvador
400,000
350,000
336
283
300,000
250,000
200,000
181
150,000
temporary workers
100,000
permanent workers
50,000
0
2012/13
Initial
Forecast
2012/13 Final
2013/14
Projected
Source: Based on IV Censo Agropecuario and Consejo Salvadoreño del Café

12. Social impacts
• Over 500,000 farm and processing jobs lost in 2013 in
Central America
• Average less than 3 hct per farmer
• Few employment/income/staple food production
alternatives in coffee areas
• Assessment in Guatemala (WFP)
–
–
–
–
–
–
43% of coffee HH spend over 65% of income on food
85% grow corn/beans but not enough for whole year
37% of laborers have no other livelihood
15% of small farmers have no other source of income
35,000 vulnerable families who need assistance
37,000 additional families at risk of becoming food
insecure

13. Action Plan
• Food assistance for over
55,000 families for 3-5
months (WFP)
• Early warning and
information system
• Research on blends
• Research on varieties
• Research and train
farmers on fighting coffee
rust
• Identify sources for
financing/innovative tools
• Diversification

14. More than a crisis, it is a new beginning for
coffee in Central America.
- Robéiro Oliveira Silva, Executive Director ICO