This document summarizes Karl Albrecht's presentation at the 2014 World Future Society conference titled "Deconstructing the Future". The presentation discusses different approaches to making predictions about the future, including "magic wand" predictions and more structured methods. It provides examples of famous inaccurate predictions from the past and advocates for using systems thinking tools like mind mapping, affinity diagramming, and card planning to make predictions anchored in context, time-bound, testable, and with a confidence rating. The goal is to move beyond simplistic predictions and develop a better understanding of the drivers that shape the future.

1. “Deconstructing
the Future”
Seeing Beyond
“Magic Wand” Predictions
Karl Albrecht
World Future Society
World Future 2014
July 12, 2014
Orlando

2. Whose “Future” Do You Believe?
The “Oh-S***” Future
The “Gee-Whiz” Future

3. The Turning Point?
“Civilization is more
and more a race
between education
and catastrophe.”
~ H.G. Wells, 1902

4. Do Futurists Drink Too Much Coffee?

5. “Magic Wand” Predictions
About That Overpopulation
Problem

6. Famous “Bad Calls”
“Forget it, Louis -
no Civil War picture
has ever
made a nickel.”
- Irving Thalberg,
business Adviser
to Louis B. Mayer,
who turned down
“Gone With the Wind,” 1937
GONE
with the
WIND

7. Famous “Bad Calls”
“Robert Goddard’s
theories about
space travel
are too far-fetched
even to be
considered.”
- Scientific American
Magazine, 1940

8. Famous “Bad Calls”
“We will bury you.
And you capitalists
will sell us the shovels
to do it with.”
- Nikita Khrushchev,
Premier of USSR, 1962

9. Famous “Bad Calls”
“I see no reason
why anyone
would need
a computer
in their home.”
- Ken Olsen, founder of
Digital Equipment Corp.,
1977

10. “We stand on the threshold of rocket mail”

11. What’s the Next “Rocket Mail”?

12. The Final Prediction?
Computers
to replace
futurists by
2025

13. How Do Futurists Think?

14. Two Thinking “Systems”
“System 1”:
Reflexive
“System 2”:
Reflective

15. “System 2” Thinking: What If . . .?

16. “System 2” Thinking: a Strategy Exercise
1
2
4 3
5
• 5 coins, each touching 2 neighbors.
• Players alternate taking way coins.
• Each player can take either 1 coin, or 2 if they’re touching each other.
• Cannot disturb the other coins.
• Winner is the one who takes the last coin (or coins).
• What strategy will always win the game?

17. There Will Always be New Ideas

18. Square Watermelons?

19. Low-budget Funerals?

20. Wine Sling?

21. Musical Taser?

22. New Fashions?

23. The Digital
Outhouse?

24. Underwater Hotels?

25. Space Tourism?

26. Electronic Tombstones?

27. The Strategic Radar Model for Business
Customer
Competitor
Economic
Techno-logical
Political
Social
Legal
Geo-physical

28. The Structured Inquiry Method
Starts with Asking a “Big Question.”
Then ...
1. Map out the “Strategic Context”
2. Discover the Drivers
3. Build the Road Map

29. 1. Mind Mapping: The “Strategic Context”

30. 2. Affinity Diagramming: The “Drivers”
DRIVER
4
DRIVER
3
DRIVER
2
DRIVER
1

31. 3. Card Planning: The “Roadmap”
Time Line

32. Better Questions => Better Predictions
A Useful Prediction Is …
• Anchored in a Context
• Time-bound [“… by the year 20xx”]
• Testable [observable criteria…]
• Confidence-Rated [“+/- 5 years”] [“Conf. = 90%”]

33. New Thinking for a New World
“Everything should be made
as simple as possible – but
not simpler.”
~ Albert Einstein

34. Books
Your Strategic Radar The Northbound Train
Visit WFS Bookstore
Order & pay; provide shipping address
Will be shipped to you (no shipping cost)

35. For More Information…
http://www.KarlAlbrecht.com