The document summarizes discussions from a roundtable event on future agricultural policy held at the University of Missouri in Brussels on January 14, 2009. Several speakers presented on topics including: the evolution of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) after 2013; prospects for US agricultural policy and factors that will influence its future direction; global commodity market trends and drivers of increasing food demand; and issues and uncertainties surrounding agricultural markets and policy in light of recent volatility in food and energy prices.

1. www.missouri.edu University of Missouri

2. Agricultural Policy. What’s Next? Lars Hoelgaard, Deputy Director-General University of Missouri’s Transatlantic Center, Brussels, 14 January 2009

13. Pavel Vavra Agricultural Economist OECD

14. Global Trends in Commodity Markets

16. 1973 2008 Cereal prices in real terms, schematic Where are (were) prices going? Transitory factors, Long-term factors } 20-30%

18. Growing demand for agricultural commodities P.a. average growth rate between 2008 and 2017

19. Food - Feed - Fuel fuelling demand for cereals Wheat Coarse grains

21. Change in world prices for 2017: Cumulative impacts of different scenarios

22. Strong ties of agriculture and energy

24. Pat Westhoff Co-Director Food and Agricultural Policy Institute University of Missouri

25. Patrick Westhoff University of Missouri [email_address] Transatlantic Roundtable, Brussels January 14, 2009

26. Mar 08: $450 Nov 08: $237

29. CBOT maize futures, March 2009 contracts Jan. 9: $4.10/bushel ($161/ton) Jan. 13: $3.62/bushel ($143/ton), down 12% Dec. estimate by USDA Jan. estimate by USDA Comments 2008 maize production 305.3 mil. tons 307.4 mil. tons More area, higher yields than previous estimate 2008/09 U.S. maize for ethanol 94.0 mil. tons 91.4 mil. tons Lower fuel prices have closed some plants 2008/09 U.S. maize used for livestock feed 135.9 mil. tons 134.6 mil. tons Less meat demand due to weak economy 2008/09 U.S. maize exports 45.7 mil. tons 44.5 mil. tons Weak global economy slows trade Sep. 1, 2009 U.S. maize stocks 37.4 mil. tons 45.5 mil. tons More production, less use mean more stocks

31. Source: FAPRI preliminary baseline, Nov. 2008

32. Source: FAPRI preliminary baseline, Nov. 2008. Note: “Payment trigger” is price that would result in countercyclical payments.

33. Note: Net CCC outlays include spending on direct payments, marketing loans, countercyclical payments and other basic farm programs

36. Michel Petit Professor Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen (Montpellier)

37. CAP PROSPECTS Michel PETIT [email_address] Transatlantic Roundtable, Brussels January 14, 2009

40. CAP expenditure and CAP reform path EU-10 EU-12 EU-15 EU-25 EU-27

41. INTERVENTION AS SAFETY NET

43. Neil Conklin President Farm Foundation

44. The Future of U.S. Agricultural Policy "Agricultural Policy in Transition: What's Next?" Brussels, Belgium January 14, 2009 Neil Conklin Farm Foundation

47. 75 Years of Change

48. Growing Population

49. Rising Income

50. Policies Shaped by Abundance

57. Willi Meyers Co-Director Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute University of Missouri

58. Discussion Willi Meyers [email_address] Transatlantic Roundtable, Brussels January 14, 2009

59. Changing US Political Setting?

60. Changing EU Political Setting?

61. Changing Market Environment? Real U.S. Crop Farm Prices in year 2000 US dollars Source: January 08 FAPRI Baseline

62. Did we lose trust in MARKET INSTITUTIONS? ..said Thursday(Oct 23)that the current financial crisis had uncovered a flaw in how the free market system works that had shocked him.