Afternoon 06.06.2011
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Quality orientation and focus are key to successful investing. A Mumbai newspaper article from June 6, 2011 discusses the importance of focusing on quality when making investments. The article appears on page 16 and provides two clips related to quality orientation and successful investing.
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The document provides a weekly summary of key economic indicators and financial market performance in India for the period of 1st-8th June 2018. Some of the key highlights included:
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The document provides a weekly summary of key economic indicators and financial market performance in India for the period of 1st-8th June 2018. Some of the key highlights included:
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- The key Indian equity indices Sensex closed the week with marginal gains of 0.5% despite volatility in the market from events like US Fed rate hikes and the de-nuclearization of North Korea. Pharma stocks gained the most while metals and oil & gas dragged.
- Yields on the 10-year Indian government bond eased initially but rose later in the week due to higher inflation numbers. The RBI kept policy rates unchanged.
- Internationally, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected while China's industrial production growth slowed slightly. The Trump-Kim summit led to agreements on denuclearization.
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- Concerns remain about instability in Europe's banking system, uncertainty around US interest rates after the election, and potential for Chinese currency devaluation. Wholesale inflation slowed in India while the government may increase public spending to spur growth.
- Key stock indices declined over the past week with the Sensex falling 1.46% while most sectors also ended lower with metals and power dropping the most.
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- The monetary policy committee unanimously agreed to cut interest rates by 0.25 basis points, though some banks have passed on lower rates between 0.10-0.15%. Rate cuts are hoped to boost consumption.
- Early indicators show strong consumer durable and auto sales during the Ganpati and upcoming festivals, suggesting good consumption for the next few months.
- Earnings growth of 17-18% is expected this fiscal year, with most growth occurring in the third and fourth quarters.
- Upcoming global events like the US elections and potential interest rate hikes could increase volatility.
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- Indian consumer inflation is expected to have eased in August but may still be too high for an interest rate cut in September. Tax receipts rose robustly in August.
- Economic data from major economies like Germany, the US, and China suggests slowing growth, while long-term debt issuance in Europe may increase risks.
- Indian indices fell for the week while commodities like crude oil rose and the rupee
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- The equity markets in India traded in a narrow range over the past week and are expected to remain range-bound in the coming weeks. Key economic data like GDP and core sector growth were in line with expectations.
- In the US, recent data points to continued moderate economic growth and makes the case for an interest rate hike in September. The impact of rate hikes is expected to be greater on developed markets than emerging markets like India.
- Macroeconomic indicators from China suggested efforts to reduce corporate financing costs and tax burdens to boost the economy, while the central bank took measures to inject liquidity into markets.
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- Global government bond yields increased modestly, with the US 10-year yield rising to 1.6%, while oil prices fell on doubts that upcoming producer talks would reduce oversupply.
- Domestically, strong monsoon rains are expected to boost agricultural growth and the overall economy. Internationally, China's exports declined in 2016 and are projected to fall further due to economic pressures.
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- India's wholesale and consumer price inflation increased in July driven by higher food prices. Industrial production growth slowed in the Eurozone and China.
- US retail sales were flat in July and the budget deficit declined, while China's economic growth slowed with the weakest investment growth in over 15 years.
- The Indian stock market ended the week slightly lower, with the Sensex falling 0.11%. Most sectoral indices also declined over the week except for banking. Commodity prices were mixed with gold falling slightly while crude oil rose.
The World This Week - 1st to 5th August, 2016
- Yields on bonds have remained at historically low levels for decades, exposing markets to volatility and posing problems for pension funds that rely on stable returns from bonds.
- Pension funds facing low yields may need to increase contributions from workers and governments or invest in riskier assets like equities to meet liabilities. This could have social ramifications.
- Similarly, low yields make it difficult for insurance companies to meet liabilities through low-risk investments, potentially leading to higher premiums.
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Introduction of GST in the Rajya Sabha has significance because it could have been passed in the Lok Sabha also. However, Rajya Sabha is where the government does not have majority and since it’s a constitutional amendment that requires two thirds majority, convincing all the parties is a key milestone and to that extent, introduction and subsequent passage of the bill in the Rajya Sabha will be important.
•Earnings Data for 8 core industries including mining, infrastructure and electricity was received which indicated a growth by 5.2% which augers well. However, one needs to see if this is a onetime occurrence or will it continue. Also, since rainfall was moderate, by the end of July, rural consumption is expected to be strong. To that extent, GDP is likely to grow anywhere between 7.5-8% this year. The government’s earlier projections in the budget carry an upward bias.
Advice for the Wise - August 2016
Dear Investors,
The month of July has seen the heavens literally open their doors and shower their blessings on us. After a late start in June, the monsoon picked up
smartly and the country as a whole received abundant rainfall, bringing cheer to one and all and definitely a sense of relief. The same good cheer
seems to have percolated to the global equity markets as well. Having brushed off the Brexit issue, markets have continued their upward move
relentlessly through the month of July. The US benchmark index, the S&P 500 hit a new lifetime high earlier in the month on the back of good jobs
data and an optimistic view of growth in the US economy. Not wanting to be left out in any way, the Nifty set a new 52-week high and the Sensex
scaled 28,000.
The quarterly results have been a mixed bag so far. While there have been more hits than misses, the IT sector as a whole and some pharma
companies have been the major pockets of underperformance. Most of the private sector retail banks and NBFCs have shown a stellar performance,
while growth in public sector banks was stagnant due to liquidity and NPA issues. In the consumer space, lower costs have added to the profits of
several companies, but revenue growth and volume growth were disappointing. There is hope that these will see a significant pick up in the second
half of the financial year once the benefits of the 7th Pay Commission and a good monsoon kick in.
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- Momentum stocks should be exited and defensive investments pursued as markets may be volatile.
- The IMF lowered India's GDP growth forecast to 7.4% for the current fiscal year.
- Greece relaxed some capital controls as bailout reforms progress and banking confidence returns.
- Central banks will remain cautious on policy moves pending clarity on Brexit's economic impacts.
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- Core inflation in India declined to 4.5% in June from 4.7% previously, which may support a 25 basis point rate cut by the RBI in August. Industrial growth also turned positive in April after contracting previously.
- Financial results from companies so far have been better than expected, though IT sector disappointed due to Brexit. Global markets are focused on upcoming earnings season in India.
- The Bank of England is expected to cut rates to a record low of 0.25% to cushion the UK economy from Brexit shock. China's land and wage growth slowed in the first half of 2016 due to overcapacity issues.
The World This Week - 4th to 8th July, 2016
Global bond yields are at historical lows which mean global bond prices have rallied across developed markets while S&P 500 is close to its historical high. This by itself is a dichotomy as bond prices and equity prices are not expected to rally together at the same point. Either of the two has to be true.
•Bond prices and yields are inversely related therefore, bond prices rally when yields and interest rates are expected to be low. Interest rates are expected to be low because growth prospects are low. This would entail the central banks to cut rates and because the demand for credits will be low due to the low growth prospects, the yields are expected to be low which explains the rally in bond prices. Considering this, the rally in the equity markets is not possible as there is no expectation for growth. This is the dichotomy that the global world is at particularly in the developed markets. In the light of the current scenario, either of the two has to give in i.e. either bond prices correct leading to normalcy in yields or equity markets give in.
Advice for The Wise - July 2016
Dear Investors,
Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross said "Ultimately, I think it will be the world's most expensive divorce. But like most divorces, it's probably going to take a lot longer than it should." The Brexit vote to leave the European Union sent shock waves across the globe. Though the pre-poll surveys had indicated a close call, it was largely expected that sanity would prevail on referendum day and the British populace would vote to Remain. The ramifications of an eventual Brexit are likely to be long-drawn and far-reaching. Apart from the impact it has had on the currency markets, there is an imminent danger of other countries wanting to follow suit. This may lead to the ultimate breakdown of the EU, causing geo-political chaos with the danger of recession.
The equity markets seemed to have temporarily shrugged off the event. While the Sensex tanked by over 1000 points when the Brexit result was declared, it has since recovered all its losses and closed the month of June at a YTD high of almost 27,000. Though there may be individual stocks and sectors where revenues are likely to be directly impacted, the market as a whole has shown significant resilience, waiting as it were for Britain to formally initiate the process of exit before assessing its overall impact.
The World This Week - 27th June to 1st July, 2016
After the uncertainty of the Brexit verdict got over, the market rallied in the last week. The market got off on the
wrong foot on the day of the Referendum results and corrected by almost 1000 points. But the market soon
realized that the renewal in trade agreement between UK and Euro is not going to happen anytime soon and it will
take around 1-2 years. India being an emerging nation, the impact of this event is quite limited. After this the
market resumed its upt uptrend. Since budget, the nifty is up by 1000 points, and in percentage terms it has gained
22%. We should remember that it is still 10% off of the it’s all time high, which was achieved in March 2015.
• Despite the fact that the PE multiple of the Indian Markets is 17 – 18 times, the FIIs continue to invest in India on
account of better growth prospects, better earning visibility. India is the only trillion dollar economy which is
growing on 7.5%, which makes it a lucrative long term story.
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- Yields on bonds have remained at historically low levels for decades, exposing markets to volatility and posing problems for pension funds that rely on stable returns from bonds.
- Pension funds facing low yields may need to increase contributions from workers and governments or invest in riskier assets like equities to meet liabilities. This could have social ramifications.
- Similarly, low yields make it difficult for insurance companies to meet liabilities through low-risk investments, potentially leading to higher premiums.
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Introduction of GST in the Rajya Sabha has significance because it could have been passed in the Lok Sabha also. However, Rajya Sabha is where the government does not have majority and since it’s a constitutional amendment that requires two thirds majority, convincing all the parties is a key milestone and to that extent, introduction and subsequent passage of the bill in the Rajya Sabha will be important.
•Earnings Data for 8 core industries including mining, infrastructure and electricity was received which indicated a growth by 5.2% which augers well. However, one needs to see if this is a onetime occurrence or will it continue. Also, since rainfall was moderate, by the end of July, rural consumption is expected to be strong. To that extent, GDP is likely to grow anywhere between 7.5-8% this year. The government’s earlier projections in the budget carry an upward bias.
Advice for the Wise - August 2016
Dear Investors,
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smartly and the country as a whole received abundant rainfall, bringing cheer to one and all and definitely a sense of relief. The same good cheer
seems to have percolated to the global equity markets as well. Having brushed off the Brexit issue, markets have continued their upward move
relentlessly through the month of July. The US benchmark index, the S&P 500 hit a new lifetime high earlier in the month on the back of good jobs
data and an optimistic view of growth in the US economy. Not wanting to be left out in any way, the Nifty set a new 52-week high and the Sensex
scaled 28,000.
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companies have been the major pockets of underperformance. Most of the private sector retail banks and NBFCs have shown a stellar performance,
while growth in public sector banks was stagnant due to liquidity and NPA issues. In the consumer space, lower costs have added to the profits of
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- Central banks will remain cautious on policy moves pending clarity on Brexit's economic impacts.
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- The Bank of England is expected to cut rates to a record low of 0.25% to cushion the UK economy from Brexit shock. China's land and wage growth slowed in the first half of 2016 due to overcapacity issues.
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Global bond yields are at historical lows which mean global bond prices have rallied across developed markets while S&P 500 is close to its historical high. This by itself is a dichotomy as bond prices and equity prices are not expected to rally together at the same point. Either of the two has to be true.
•Bond prices and yields are inversely related therefore, bond prices rally when yields and interest rates are expected to be low. Interest rates are expected to be low because growth prospects are low. This would entail the central banks to cut rates and because the demand for credits will be low due to the low growth prospects, the yields are expected to be low which explains the rally in bond prices. Considering this, the rally in the equity markets is not possible as there is no expectation for growth. This is the dichotomy that the global world is at particularly in the developed markets. In the light of the current scenario, either of the two has to give in i.e. either bond prices correct leading to normalcy in yields or equity markets give in.
Advice for The Wise - July 2016
Dear Investors,
Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross said "Ultimately, I think it will be the world's most expensive divorce. But like most divorces, it's probably going to take a lot longer than it should." The Brexit vote to leave the European Union sent shock waves across the globe. Though the pre-poll surveys had indicated a close call, it was largely expected that sanity would prevail on referendum day and the British populace would vote to Remain. The ramifications of an eventual Brexit are likely to be long-drawn and far-reaching. Apart from the impact it has had on the currency markets, there is an imminent danger of other countries wanting to follow suit. This may lead to the ultimate breakdown of the EU, causing geo-political chaos with the danger of recession.
The equity markets seemed to have temporarily shrugged off the event. While the Sensex tanked by over 1000 points when the Brexit result was declared, it has since recovered all its losses and closed the month of June at a YTD high of almost 27,000. Though there may be individual stocks and sectors where revenues are likely to be directly impacted, the market as a whole has shown significant resilience, waiting as it were for Britain to formally initiate the process of exit before assessing its overall impact.
The World This Week - 27th June to 1st July, 2016
After the uncertainty of the Brexit verdict got over, the market rallied in the last week. The market got off on the
wrong foot on the day of the Referendum results and corrected by almost 1000 points. But the market soon
realized that the renewal in trade agreement between UK and Euro is not going to happen anytime soon and it will
take around 1-2 years. India being an emerging nation, the impact of this event is quite limited. After this the
market resumed its upt uptrend. Since budget, the nifty is up by 1000 points, and in percentage terms it has gained
22%. We should remember that it is still 10% off of the it’s all time high, which was achieved in March 2015.
• Despite the fact that the PE multiple of the Indian Markets is 17 – 18 times, the FIIs continue to invest in India on
account of better growth prospects, better earning visibility. India is the only trillion dollar economy which is
growing on 7.5%, which makes it a lucrative long term story.
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