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African economic outlook
- 1. African Economic Measuring Outlook 2007 the Pulse of Africa Nicolas Pinaud, OECD Development Centre 经合组织 发展中心 Standard Chartered & the OECD Development Centre AFRICA AND CHINA: ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS PERSPECTIVES Shanghai 16 May 2007
- 2. 1 What is the African Economic Outlook Project? 2 African Economic Performance: Multifaceted Growth 3 Africa and Globalization 2
- 3. African Economic Outlook Measuring the Pulse of Africa • Joint publication of the AfDB and the OECD Development Centre, supported by the EC – 6th edition. • Mobilising a network of in-country African experts & collaboration with WB, IMF, bilateral donors, … • A resource for policy makers, aid practitioners, investors, researchers, students, … • A tool for policy dialogue among African policy makers (nationally, APRM, …) and with their partners (EC, G8, OECD) 3
- 4. African Economic Outlook An innovative product, an evolving process • Comprehensive, comparative and independent analysis of 31 countries and short-term macroeconomic forecasts. • Annual focus • 2003: Privatization • 2004: Access to energy • 2005: SME development • 2006: Transport infrastructure • 2007: Access to drinking water and sanitation • Statistical annex, including innovative indicators 4
- 5. Coverage 2007: 31African countries Tunisia Morocco Algeria AEO 2007 Libya Egypt Mauritania Niger Cape verde Mali Senegal Chad Sudan Eritrea Gambia Guinea-Bissau Burkina Djibouti Guinea Faso Benin Nigeria Ethiopia Sierra Leone Côte Togo d'Ivoire Central African Ghana Republic Liberia Cameroon Somalia Equatorial Guinea Uganda Congo Sao Tome et principe Gabon Kenya Rwanda Dem.Rep. Burundi Congo Tanzania 91% of GDP Angola Malawi Comores Zambia 86% of population Zimbabwe Mozambique Madagascar Namibia Botswana Mauritius Swaziland Lesotho South Africa 5
- 6. 1 What is the African Economic Outlook Project? 2 African Economic Performance: Multifaceted Growth 3 Africa and Globalization 6
- 7. Africa continues togrow strongly 7 6 5 Africa growth rate 4 3 2 Total OECD 1 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006(e) 2007(p) 2008(p) Sources: African Economic Outlook 2007, OECD 7
- 8. The commodity boomhas played an important role 490 450 410 370 330 290 250 210 170 130 90 50 1 2 3 4 5 6 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 0 0 0 0 0 0 v- v- v- v- v- v- v- il- il- il- il- il- il- ju ju ju ju ju ju n n n n n n n ja ja ja ja ja ja ja Petroleum Copper Aluminium Gold Source: Worldbank 2007 8
- 9. Vibrant & stablegrowth in oil-producing countries in 2006 Net Oil Exporters Africa Best performing net oil exporters in 2006 (%) 8 Angola Sudan 7 Congo Real GDP Growth Egypt 6 DRC Nigeria 5 Libya Cameroon 4 Algeria Gabon 3 Chad Equatorial Guinea 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 (e) 2007 (p) 2008 (p) 0 5 10 15 20 Real GDP Growth 2006 (%) Source: African Economic Outlook 2007 9
- 10. Growth gaining momentumin oil importers: Good harvests and booming metal prices… Oil Importing Countries Africa Best Performing net oil importers in 2001-2006 8 Kenya 7 South Africa Net Oil Importers Real GDP growth (%) Namibia 6 Tunisia Africa Zambia Ghana 5 Morocco Net Oil Exporters Uganda 4 Botswana Mali Burkina Faso 3 Tanzania Mozambique 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006(e) 2007(p) 2008(p) 0 5 10 Average Real GDP Growth 2001/2006 (%) Sources: African Economic Outlook 2007 10
- 11. …but also fewerbullets & more ballots Presidential elections in 2006 Benin Cape Verde* Chad DRC* Gambia Madagascar Sao Tome et Principe* Seychelles Zambia* Uganda *Parliamentary elections as well Sources: African Economic Outlook 2007, Political Indicators 11
- 12. Despite strong growthrate, progress towards the MDGs remains slow Satisfactory Non Satisfactory 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Halve the % of Ensure that all Eliminate Reduce by 2/3 Reduce Halt and Halve the % of people suffering children can Gender under 5 maternal revers e s pread people without from hunger Complete dis parity in all mortality rates mortality by 3/4 of Tuberculos is acces s to safe primary school levels of water education Sources: African Economic Outlook 2007 12
- 13. 1 What is the African Economic Outlook Project? 2 African Economic Performance: Multifaceted Growth 3 Africa and Globalization 13
- 14. Africa & globalisation Noteworthy developments… New actors, new trends • New foreign direct investors trade partners : – the Asian Drivers (China & India), trade & direct investment; – investors from Africa into Africa (South Africa, North Africa, Nigeria) • Yield-hungry portfolio investors: Africa, the new investment / credit frontier? 14 Source: World bank, Global Development Finance
- 15. Africa and Globalization: ... a vulnerable continent? • Africa’s share in world trade and investment remains minimal (1.5 % & 4% resp.) and concentrated in raw materials • Partnering with the Asian drivers: opportunities / risk of further specialization and of raising the bar for competing in labor intensive industries 15 Source: UN COMTRADE
- 16. Africa and Globalization: ... Investment in Oil and South Africa • Foreign investment in Africa is concentrated in oil exporting countries and in South Africa 4 90 3.5 80 3 70 60 % of Total FDI to Africa 2.5 50 % of World FDI 2 40 1.5 30 1 20 0.5 10 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total FDIs to Sub-Saharan Africa Total FDIs to Northern Africa FDIs to Sub-Saharan Main Oil Producers* & South Africa as a %of total FDIs to Africa (right axis) Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 16
- 17. Africa and Globalization: ... Slow progress in diversification The higher the index, the more diversified the economy Africa Morocco DRC Tunisia Ethiopia South Africa Cameroon Egypt Zambia Tanzania Algeria Kenya Mozambique Mauritius Mali Uganda Sudan Senegal Botswana Lesotho Nigeria Eq. Guinea Cote d'Ivoire Chad Ghana Least diversified Africa Most diversified Angola 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 Source: African Diversification Index, African Economic Outlook 2007 17
- 18. How can Africabecome an active player in globalization? • Increase capacity for trade and investment: maintain macroeconomic stability, improving business environment, promote diversification • Use external resources more effectively: – Capitalize on oil and minerals windfall gains to invest in health, education and access to basic services – Use ODA as a catalyst: aid for trade is an instrument for enhancing Africa’s integration in the global economy. 18
- 19. Aid must beused strategically 0.40 0.36 140 0.35 0.33 0.33 120 0.30 0.26 100 ODA ($ billion 2004) ODA as a % 0.25 of GNI (left scale) %of GNI 0.22 80 0.20 Total ODA 60 0.15 (right scale) 0.10 40 0.05 Total ODA to Africa 20 (right scale) 0.00 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 19
- 20. Aid for tradeis on the rise … and Africa is the 2nd largest recipient 20