Additional Simulation of the Infection Process of COVID-19

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We have shown that there exists the bifurcation point of the combination of 6 filter policies in the infection process. It is required to control the FDI(the combination of 5 filter policies) under the threshold of the bifurcation point for controlling the outbreak in a city. Even if we introduce the closing policy in a city, it is not effective over the threshold of the bifurcation point. It is strongly recommended to introduce the surveillance system of an execution level of each filter policy to control the level of FDI

Healthcare

Hiroishi Deguchi
Tokyo Institute of Technology
@wideexit
deguchi@dis.titech.ac.jp
Statistical & Multi-objective
Social Control of Infection
Process of COVID-19
Additional Simulation

Bifurcation Point to control the
Infection Process & Execution
Surveillance System
1
Ver 0.6 20200330

0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
0.000 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000
FDI
Infected

1
10
100
1000
10000
0.000 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000
FDI
Infected (Log Scale)

Strong Closing
Policy Scenarios
Result of Simulation (2)

0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
28 29 30 31 32 33 34
FDI
Infected

1
10
100
1000
10000
28 29 30 31 32 33 34
FDI
Infected (Log Scale)

Medium Closing
Policy Scenarios
Result of Simulation (3)

0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
FDII
Infected

1
10
100
1000
10000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
FDI
Infected(Log Scale)

Weak Closing
Policy Scenarios
Result of Simulation (4)

0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
FDI
Infected

We have shown that there exists the bifurcation point of the
combination of 6 ﬁlter policies in the infection process.
It is required to control the FDI(the
combination of 5 filter policies) under the
threshold of the bifurcation point for
controlling the outbreak in a city.
Conclusion
Even if we introduce the closing policy in a
city, it is not effective over the threshold
of the bifurcation point.
It is strongly recommended to introduce
the surveillance system of an execution
level of each filter policy to control the
level of FDI
Note: We have modiﬁed the deﬁnition of FDI from the previous slide

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Male patients confined to bed usually prefer to use the urinal for voiding. The use of a urinal in the standing position facilitates emptying of the bladder If the patient is unable to stand, the urinal may be used in bed. Patients may also use a urinal in the bathroom to facilitate measurement of urinary output. Provide skin care and perineal hygiene after urinal use and maintain a professional manner EQUIPMENT Urinal with end cover (usually attached) Toilet tissue Clean gloves Additional PPE, as indicated ASSESSMENT Assess the patient’s normal elimination habits. Determine why the patient needs to use a urinal, such as a physician’s order for strict bed rest or immobilization. Assess the patient’s degree of limitation and ability to help with activity Assess for activity limitations, such as hip surgery or spinal injury, which would contraindicate certain actions by the patient. Check for the presence of drains, dressings, intravenous fluid infusion sites/equipment, traction, or any other devices that could interfere with the patient’s ability to help with the procedure or that could become dislodged. Assess the characteristics of the urine and the patient’s skin. Document the patient’s tolerance of the activity. Record the amount of urine voided on the intake and output record, if appropriate. Document any other assessments, such as unusual urine characteristics or alterations in the patient’s skin. SPECIAL CONSIDERATION Urinal should not be left in place for extended periods because pressure and irritation to the patient’s skin can result. If patient is unable to use alone or with assistance, consider other interventions, such as commode or external condom catheter. It may be necessary to assist patients who have difficulty holding the urinal in place, such as those with limited upper extremity movement or alteration in mentation, to prevent spillage of urine. The urinal may also be used standing or sitting at the bedside or in the patient’s bathroom, if patient is able to do so.

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Additional Simulation of the Infection Process of COVID-19

1. Hiroishi Deguchi Tokyo Institute of Technology @wideexit deguchi@dis.titech.ac.jp Statistical & Multi-objective Social Control of Infection Process of COVID-19 Additional Simulation Bifurcation Point to control the Infection Process & Execution Surveillance System 1 Ver 0.6 20200330

2. Result of Simulation (1) All Scenarios

3. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 0.000 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 FDI Infected

4. 1 10 100 1000 10000 0.000 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 FDI Infected (Log Scale)

5. Strong Closing Policy Scenarios Result of Simulation (2)

6. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 FDI Infected

7. 1 10 100 1000 10000 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 FDI Infected (Log Scale)

8. Medium Closing Policy Scenarios Result of Simulation (3)

9. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 FDII Infected

10. 1 10 100 1000 10000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 FDI Infected(Log Scale)

11. Weak Closing Policy Scenarios Result of Simulation (4)

12. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 FDI Infected

13. 1 10 100 1000 10000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 FDI Infected(Log Scale)

14. We have shown that there exists the bifurcation point of the combination of 6 filter policies in the infection process. It is required to control the FDI(the combination of 5 filter policies) under the threshold of the bifurcation point for controlling the outbreak in a city. Conclusion Even if we introduce the closing policy in a city, it is not effective over the threshold of the bifurcation point. It is strongly recommended to introduce the surveillance system of an execution level of each filter policy to control the level of FDI Note: We have modified the definition of FDI from the previous slide

Additional Simulation of the Infection Process of COVID-19

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