The document discusses several concepts and projects from Sandia National Laboratories' Advanced Concepts Group related to analyzing and addressing terrorism as a complex problem. These include developing computational models and simulations to better understand terrorist recruitment and behavior ("Seldon"), creating a network of experts to share knowledge about terrorism issues ("Knownet"), and exploring novel human-machine collaboration systems using physiological sensors ("Mentor/Pal"). The goal is to improve understanding of terrorism as a complex adaptive system and develop new tools to help mitigate related threats.
Text Analytics: From Colored Pens and Crumbly Papers to Custom Machine Classi...Stuart Shulman
This document summarizes a presentation about text analytics and machine learning. It discusses moving from manual analysis of text using pens and paper to using machine learning algorithms. It outlines the five pillars of text analytics: search, metadata filtering, de-duplication and clustering, human coding, and machine learning. It describes how these pillars work together, with human coding of text converted into machine classifiers through machine learning to automate analysis. The focus is on how both humans and machines can learn from each other in text analytics.
This document summarizes four knowledge management processes used by Defence Research & Development Canada (DRDC): monitoring the environment, producing intelligence, mobilizing knowledge, and integration. It describes DRDC's environmental monitoring process which involves acquiring external data through 10 pathways, including monitoring cyberspace, media, research, literature, conferences, communities of practice, soliciting practitioners, reviewing experiences, individual discovery, and receiving unsolicited information. Each pathway requires different support services to filter and analyze the acquired information and detect patterns of interest.
- Governments could leverage graph databases to make their countries more secure, provide better services, and increase efficiency. Graph databases allow analysis of connections in data that may not be apparent using traditional databases.
- Examples of how governments use graph databases include combating money laundering by analyzing how funds travel between parties, improving law enforcement investigations by connecting related data like suspects, evidence and locations, and enhancing e-government services by eliminating duplicate records across systems.
- Graph databases provide benefits like easy maintenance of connected data models, intuitive querying of relationships, high performance, and minimal resource usage which can improve areas like border security, fraud detection, records management and more.
SMART Infrastructure Facility was pleased to host Dr Ruth Deakin Crick, a Reader in Systems Learning and Leadership, at University of Bristol, UK as she presented ‘Learning Journeys: making learning visible in developing infrastructure futures’ as part of the SMART Seminar Series on October 16th, 2014.
A recommendation for software development responses for futureMax Justice
A SecDevOps approach is recommended for organizations developing technical solutions to better respond to future vulnerabilities and threats. This involves baking security into the entire software development lifecycle from development through operations on premises, in the cloud, and hybrid environments. Implementing innovative programming techniques and platforms like cloud-native tools can help mature an organization's security defenses and adjust to new threats.
This document discusses data science and the role of data scientists. It defines data science as using expertise in managing, transforming, and analyzing large, diverse datasets to help experts and decision-makers address challenges posed by big data. Specifically, data scientists help with infrastructure, reduce data into usable knowledge for domains, and help institutions manage data throughout its lifecycle. The proliferation of big data and new technologies has created a need for knowledge managers and data scientists to bridge gaps between technical and domain experts.
A SMART Seminar conducted on 3 May 2013 by Ian Bertram.
Leveraging information for decision making, assessing its value and ensuring frictionless sharing of information within the enterprise and beyond is what will fuel success in the current and future economy. New use cases with insatiable demand for real-time access to socially mediated and context-aware insights make information management in the 21st century dramatically different.
For more information, see http://goo.gl/a6F2c
Text Analytics: From Colored Pens and Crumbly Papers to Custom Machine Classi...Stuart Shulman
This document summarizes a presentation about text analytics and machine learning. It discusses moving from manual analysis of text using pens and paper to using machine learning algorithms. It outlines the five pillars of text analytics: search, metadata filtering, de-duplication and clustering, human coding, and machine learning. It describes how these pillars work together, with human coding of text converted into machine classifiers through machine learning to automate analysis. The focus is on how both humans and machines can learn from each other in text analytics.
This document summarizes four knowledge management processes used by Defence Research & Development Canada (DRDC): monitoring the environment, producing intelligence, mobilizing knowledge, and integration. It describes DRDC's environmental monitoring process which involves acquiring external data through 10 pathways, including monitoring cyberspace, media, research, literature, conferences, communities of practice, soliciting practitioners, reviewing experiences, individual discovery, and receiving unsolicited information. Each pathway requires different support services to filter and analyze the acquired information and detect patterns of interest.
- Governments could leverage graph databases to make their countries more secure, provide better services, and increase efficiency. Graph databases allow analysis of connections in data that may not be apparent using traditional databases.
- Examples of how governments use graph databases include combating money laundering by analyzing how funds travel between parties, improving law enforcement investigations by connecting related data like suspects, evidence and locations, and enhancing e-government services by eliminating duplicate records across systems.
- Graph databases provide benefits like easy maintenance of connected data models, intuitive querying of relationships, high performance, and minimal resource usage which can improve areas like border security, fraud detection, records management and more.
SMART Infrastructure Facility was pleased to host Dr Ruth Deakin Crick, a Reader in Systems Learning and Leadership, at University of Bristol, UK as she presented ‘Learning Journeys: making learning visible in developing infrastructure futures’ as part of the SMART Seminar Series on October 16th, 2014.
A recommendation for software development responses for futureMax Justice
A SecDevOps approach is recommended for organizations developing technical solutions to better respond to future vulnerabilities and threats. This involves baking security into the entire software development lifecycle from development through operations on premises, in the cloud, and hybrid environments. Implementing innovative programming techniques and platforms like cloud-native tools can help mature an organization's security defenses and adjust to new threats.
This document discusses data science and the role of data scientists. It defines data science as using expertise in managing, transforming, and analyzing large, diverse datasets to help experts and decision-makers address challenges posed by big data. Specifically, data scientists help with infrastructure, reduce data into usable knowledge for domains, and help institutions manage data throughout its lifecycle. The proliferation of big data and new technologies has created a need for knowledge managers and data scientists to bridge gaps between technical and domain experts.
A SMART Seminar conducted on 3 May 2013 by Ian Bertram.
Leveraging information for decision making, assessing its value and ensuring frictionless sharing of information within the enterprise and beyond is what will fuel success in the current and future economy. New use cases with insatiable demand for real-time access to socially mediated and context-aware insights make information management in the 21st century dramatically different.
For more information, see http://goo.gl/a6F2c
The document summarizes major events related to the Cold War, rise of terrorist groups like Al Qaeda and ISIS, and US involvement in the Middle East from 1979 to the present. It describes key operations and conflicts that shaped the geopolitical landscape, including the Soviet-Afghan War, Bosnian War, US invasion of Iraq, Syrian civil war and rise of ISIS. It also provides overviews of groups like Al Qaeda, Taliban, and ISIS and outlines their origins, leadership, and areas of control over time.
Al-Qaeda is a global militant Sunni Islamist organization founded in 1988 by Osama bin Laden and Abdullah Azzam. Its goal is to drive US influence from Muslim nations and establish strict sharia law. It operates as a decentralized network and has conducted numerous terrorist attacks against Western targets since the 1990s from its base in Afghanistan under the Taliban. The US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 following the 9/11 attacks forced al-Qaeda to relocate. Osama bin Laden, the leader and founder of al-Qaeda, was killed by US forces in Pakistan in 2011.
The document discusses the origins, presence, and activities of ISIS/ISIL. It outlines their recruitment methods including use of social media and magazines to spread propaganda and recruit fighters. It also details their sources of funding and impact on global economy. The document then examines the fight against ISIS by countries like the US, Kurds, and Iran as well as hacking group Anonymous. It concludes by discussing the role of religion in extremism and includes a bibliography of sources.
The document defines terrorism as unlawful acts of violence intended to intimidate governments or societies to achieve political, religious, or ideological goals. It discusses the goals and methods of terrorists, including producing widespread fear, gaining media attention, extorting money, and destroying economies. Various types of terrorism are outlined such as state terrorism, bio terrorism, and cyber terrorism. Prominent terrorist attacks like 9/11 and the Mumbai attacks are mentioned. Solutions proposed include stringent anti-terrorism laws, a federal investigative agency, modern counter-terrorism equipment, and public cooperation with governments.
Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)Nitin Sharma
The document discusses the rise of ISIS in Iraq and Syria and potential threats posed. It provides background on how ISIS formed from al-Qaeda in Iraq and took control of territory across Iraq and Syria. Six potential scenarios for the future of Iraq are outlined, ranging from protracted civil war to ISIS gaining control of the entire country. The document also discusses how ISIS aims to establish a caliphate and how their actions could impact neighboring countries and threaten global security. Measures to counter ISIS are mentioned, including training local ground forces in Iraq to conduct operations to push ISIS from cities.
The document discusses global terrorism in several countries and regions. It outlines terrorist groups and their goals in Sri Lanka, China, Pakistan, and parts of India. In India, it mentions religious, left-wing, and regional terrorist groups and their activities in Bihar, Assam, Andhra Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir. It concludes with safety tips for recognizing and responding to suspicious packages and bomb threats, and preparing for explosions.
A terror attack occurred at an undisclosed location on an unknown date, resulting in deaths and 319 injuries. The perpetrator and type of attack are unknown. The document is dedicated to those who lost loved ones in the terror attack.
Terrorism is defined as the unlawful use of violence against people or property to intimidate or coerce a government for political or social goals. It is a tactic that has been used throughout history to make a point through instilling fear psychologically. There are different types of terrorist groups and motives, and terrorism can involve the use of explosives, firearms, or biological, chemical, and nuclear materials to carry out attacks. While terrorism poses risks, preventing it involves reducing root causes like cultural misunderstandings, promoting human rights, and establishing surveillance and protective systems.
This document discusses different types of terrorism and examples of terrorist attacks. It defines civil disorder, political terrorism, non-political terrorism, quasi terrorism, limited political terrorism, and official or state terrorism. It also discusses the 2008 Mumbai attacks where Islamist attackers received assistance and support from Pakistan's intelligence agency. The coordinated attacks lasted three days and killed 164 people across several locations in Mumbai, including the Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus train station, Oberoi Trident hotel, Taj Mahal Palace hotel, Leopold Cafe, and Nariman House Jewish community center.
Opportunities and Challenges in Crisis InformaticsLea Shanley
This document outlines opportunities and challenges in crisis informatics, which is an integrated approach to the technical, social, and informational aspects of crises. It begins with definitions of key terms like crisis informatics and crowdsourcing. It then discusses types of social media and ways crowdsourcing is used during crises. Opportunities of crisis informatics include citizen-based hazard science, situational awareness, and damage estimates. Challenges include ensuring data quality, integrating crowdsourced and authoritative data, and addressing legal/policy issues. The document concludes by identifying priority research challenges such as developing validation methods and best practices for data integration.
MASINT (Measurement and Signature Intelligence) uses scientific and technical methods to collect strategic and tactical intelligence. It builds models to aid decision-making but can be complicated to apply quickly. In 2004, President Bush established the Commission on Intelligence Capabilities to review intelligence functions after 9/11. The commission found 74 areas needing reform, and 71 were addressed in the 2004 Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act. This act established a director of national intelligence and improved information sharing. MASINT now plays a role in countering global terrorism by tracking networks and using enemies' own technology against them.
Distributed Scalable Systems Short OverviewRNeches
Closing description of work in the Distributed Scalable Systems Division just prior to reorganization as the Collaborative Systems component of the merged Computational Systems and Technology Division.
Sandia National Laboratories operates a Cyber Tracer Program and RECOIL facility to conduct research on improving cyber security capabilities. The programs bring together applied research in human cognition and cyber security to enhance analyst performance, identify successful candidate traits, and accelerate learning for incident response teams. Research methods include using scenario-based exercises like Tracer FIRE and cognitive studies to develop a national cadre of expert cyber analysts and defenders.
The Importance of Large-Scale Computer Science Research EffortsLarry Smarr
05.10.20
Talk at Public Seminar on Large-Scale NSF Research Efforts for the Future Computer Museum
Title: The Importance of Large-Scale Computer Science Research Efforts
Mountain View, CA
Open Grid Forum workshop on Social Networks, Semantic Grids and WebNoshir Contractor
Workshop organized by David De Roure at the Open Grid Forum XIX. Other participants included Carole Gobler, Jeremy Frey, Pamela Fox.
January 29, 2007, Chapel Hill, NC
Transforming Intelligence Analysis with Knowledge GraphsNeo4j
Transforming Intelligence Analysis with Knowledge Graphs
Vincent H. Bridgeman, Senior Vice President, National Security Services, Redhorse
Pelayo Fernandez, Research Analyst / Project Manager, United States Department of Defense
Intelligence Analysis is fundamentally a network problem. At different levels, the analyst must make sense of networks of related content, networks of related concepts, and ultimately networks of related targets that can only be understood in the context of other (even larger) networks. Examples of network problems in intelligence analysis include terrorism, sanctions evasion, global transnational organized crime, counterintelligence, and cyber security. Redhorse presents an integrated technology solution founded on Neo4j’s native graph database that brings a graphs-centered approach to intelligence analysis. The US Air Force provides an unclassified case study applying graphs to scientific forecasting. This project leverages temporal knowledge graphs, comprised of research article content and metadata, to learn and predict the trajectory of technological advancement, pushing the boundaries of graph-based intelligence analysis.
The document summarizes the work of HackingCT - Week 8. It discusses using technology, government, and at-risk communities to combat extremist messaging in a bottom-up manner. It details 12 interviews conducted so far with 90 total. The goal is to bring credible former extremists and family/friends of radicalized individuals together to provide help and information to those at risk of radicalization through an anonymous textline. The proposed MVP and mission model canvas are described.
The document summarizes major events related to the Cold War, rise of terrorist groups like Al Qaeda and ISIS, and US involvement in the Middle East from 1979 to the present. It describes key operations and conflicts that shaped the geopolitical landscape, including the Soviet-Afghan War, Bosnian War, US invasion of Iraq, Syrian civil war and rise of ISIS. It also provides overviews of groups like Al Qaeda, Taliban, and ISIS and outlines their origins, leadership, and areas of control over time.
Al-Qaeda is a global militant Sunni Islamist organization founded in 1988 by Osama bin Laden and Abdullah Azzam. Its goal is to drive US influence from Muslim nations and establish strict sharia law. It operates as a decentralized network and has conducted numerous terrorist attacks against Western targets since the 1990s from its base in Afghanistan under the Taliban. The US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 following the 9/11 attacks forced al-Qaeda to relocate. Osama bin Laden, the leader and founder of al-Qaeda, was killed by US forces in Pakistan in 2011.
The document discusses the origins, presence, and activities of ISIS/ISIL. It outlines their recruitment methods including use of social media and magazines to spread propaganda and recruit fighters. It also details their sources of funding and impact on global economy. The document then examines the fight against ISIS by countries like the US, Kurds, and Iran as well as hacking group Anonymous. It concludes by discussing the role of religion in extremism and includes a bibliography of sources.
The document defines terrorism as unlawful acts of violence intended to intimidate governments or societies to achieve political, religious, or ideological goals. It discusses the goals and methods of terrorists, including producing widespread fear, gaining media attention, extorting money, and destroying economies. Various types of terrorism are outlined such as state terrorism, bio terrorism, and cyber terrorism. Prominent terrorist attacks like 9/11 and the Mumbai attacks are mentioned. Solutions proposed include stringent anti-terrorism laws, a federal investigative agency, modern counter-terrorism equipment, and public cooperation with governments.
Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)Nitin Sharma
The document discusses the rise of ISIS in Iraq and Syria and potential threats posed. It provides background on how ISIS formed from al-Qaeda in Iraq and took control of territory across Iraq and Syria. Six potential scenarios for the future of Iraq are outlined, ranging from protracted civil war to ISIS gaining control of the entire country. The document also discusses how ISIS aims to establish a caliphate and how their actions could impact neighboring countries and threaten global security. Measures to counter ISIS are mentioned, including training local ground forces in Iraq to conduct operations to push ISIS from cities.
The document discusses global terrorism in several countries and regions. It outlines terrorist groups and their goals in Sri Lanka, China, Pakistan, and parts of India. In India, it mentions religious, left-wing, and regional terrorist groups and their activities in Bihar, Assam, Andhra Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir. It concludes with safety tips for recognizing and responding to suspicious packages and bomb threats, and preparing for explosions.
A terror attack occurred at an undisclosed location on an unknown date, resulting in deaths and 319 injuries. The perpetrator and type of attack are unknown. The document is dedicated to those who lost loved ones in the terror attack.
Terrorism is defined as the unlawful use of violence against people or property to intimidate or coerce a government for political or social goals. It is a tactic that has been used throughout history to make a point through instilling fear psychologically. There are different types of terrorist groups and motives, and terrorism can involve the use of explosives, firearms, or biological, chemical, and nuclear materials to carry out attacks. While terrorism poses risks, preventing it involves reducing root causes like cultural misunderstandings, promoting human rights, and establishing surveillance and protective systems.
This document discusses different types of terrorism and examples of terrorist attacks. It defines civil disorder, political terrorism, non-political terrorism, quasi terrorism, limited political terrorism, and official or state terrorism. It also discusses the 2008 Mumbai attacks where Islamist attackers received assistance and support from Pakistan's intelligence agency. The coordinated attacks lasted three days and killed 164 people across several locations in Mumbai, including the Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus train station, Oberoi Trident hotel, Taj Mahal Palace hotel, Leopold Cafe, and Nariman House Jewish community center.
Opportunities and Challenges in Crisis InformaticsLea Shanley
This document outlines opportunities and challenges in crisis informatics, which is an integrated approach to the technical, social, and informational aspects of crises. It begins with definitions of key terms like crisis informatics and crowdsourcing. It then discusses types of social media and ways crowdsourcing is used during crises. Opportunities of crisis informatics include citizen-based hazard science, situational awareness, and damage estimates. Challenges include ensuring data quality, integrating crowdsourced and authoritative data, and addressing legal/policy issues. The document concludes by identifying priority research challenges such as developing validation methods and best practices for data integration.
MASINT (Measurement and Signature Intelligence) uses scientific and technical methods to collect strategic and tactical intelligence. It builds models to aid decision-making but can be complicated to apply quickly. In 2004, President Bush established the Commission on Intelligence Capabilities to review intelligence functions after 9/11. The commission found 74 areas needing reform, and 71 were addressed in the 2004 Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act. This act established a director of national intelligence and improved information sharing. MASINT now plays a role in countering global terrorism by tracking networks and using enemies' own technology against them.
Distributed Scalable Systems Short OverviewRNeches
Closing description of work in the Distributed Scalable Systems Division just prior to reorganization as the Collaborative Systems component of the merged Computational Systems and Technology Division.
Sandia National Laboratories operates a Cyber Tracer Program and RECOIL facility to conduct research on improving cyber security capabilities. The programs bring together applied research in human cognition and cyber security to enhance analyst performance, identify successful candidate traits, and accelerate learning for incident response teams. Research methods include using scenario-based exercises like Tracer FIRE and cognitive studies to develop a national cadre of expert cyber analysts and defenders.
The Importance of Large-Scale Computer Science Research EffortsLarry Smarr
05.10.20
Talk at Public Seminar on Large-Scale NSF Research Efforts for the Future Computer Museum
Title: The Importance of Large-Scale Computer Science Research Efforts
Mountain View, CA
Open Grid Forum workshop on Social Networks, Semantic Grids and WebNoshir Contractor
Workshop organized by David De Roure at the Open Grid Forum XIX. Other participants included Carole Gobler, Jeremy Frey, Pamela Fox.
January 29, 2007, Chapel Hill, NC
Transforming Intelligence Analysis with Knowledge GraphsNeo4j
Transforming Intelligence Analysis with Knowledge Graphs
Vincent H. Bridgeman, Senior Vice President, National Security Services, Redhorse
Pelayo Fernandez, Research Analyst / Project Manager, United States Department of Defense
Intelligence Analysis is fundamentally a network problem. At different levels, the analyst must make sense of networks of related content, networks of related concepts, and ultimately networks of related targets that can only be understood in the context of other (even larger) networks. Examples of network problems in intelligence analysis include terrorism, sanctions evasion, global transnational organized crime, counterintelligence, and cyber security. Redhorse presents an integrated technology solution founded on Neo4j’s native graph database that brings a graphs-centered approach to intelligence analysis. The US Air Force provides an unclassified case study applying graphs to scientific forecasting. This project leverages temporal knowledge graphs, comprised of research article content and metadata, to learn and predict the trajectory of technological advancement, pushing the boundaries of graph-based intelligence analysis.
The document summarizes the work of HackingCT - Week 8. It discusses using technology, government, and at-risk communities to combat extremist messaging in a bottom-up manner. It details 12 interviews conducted so far with 90 total. The goal is to bring credible former extremists and family/friends of radicalized individuals together to provide help and information to those at risk of radicalization through an anonymous textline. The proposed MVP and mission model canvas are described.
Collaboration Technology for Public Health and Humanitarian Action and Global...Taha Kass-Hout, MD, MS
CDC Focus On Users: Underserved Populations March 2-3, 2009...
Co-sponsored CDC's National Center for Health Marketing, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Georgia State University Department of Communication, the Pew Internet & American Life Project, and the National Public Health Information Coalition.
On Tuesday 18 September 2007, Ben Shneiderman gave a talk at the Centre for HCI Design, City University London, on the topic of information visualisation for high-dimensional spaces. Over 100 people from industry and academia attended the talk.
http://hcid.soi.cty.ac.uk/
This document discusses developing an Insurgency Information Framework (IIF) using multi-agent technology and cognitive modeling. The research aims to provide decision support systems for rapid, accurate decision making to address insurgencies. The methodology uses an agent-oriented development environment, object-oriented development life cycle, model driven architecture, and multi-agent development process. Tools include JADE, Jadex, databases, and Second Life for virtual world visualization and experimentation. The conclusion states that applying this technology can extract knowledge to support more informed decisions for combating insurgencies.
This document discusses developing an Insurgency Information Framework (IIF) using multi-agent technology and cognitive modeling. The research aims to provide decision support systems for rapid, accurate decision making to address insurgencies. The methodology uses an agent-oriented development environment, object-oriented development life cycle, model driven architecture, and multi-agent development process. Tools include JADE, Jadex, databases, and Second Life for virtual world visualization and experimentation. The conclusion states that applying this technology can extract knowledge to help the Army make more informed decisions for combating insurgencies.
This document discusses developing an Insurgency Information Framework (IIF) using multi-agent technology and cognitive modeling. The research aims to provide decision support systems for rapid, accurate decision making to address insurgencies. The methodology uses an agent-oriented development environment, object-oriented development life cycle, model driven architecture, and multi-agent development process. Tools include JADE, Jadex, databases, and Second Life for virtual world visualization and experimentation. The conclusion states that applying this technology can extract knowledge to help the Army make more informed decisions for combating insurgencies.
This document discusses developing an Insurgency Information Framework (IIF) using multi-agent technology and cognitive modeling. The research aims to provide decision support systems for rapidly making accurate decisions to improve outcomes over time. The methodology uses an agent-oriented development environment, object-oriented development life cycle, model driven architecture, and multi-agent development process. Tools include JADE, Jadex, and a 3D virtual world to model and observe insurgency behavior and assess outcomes of decisions.
This document discusses developing an Insurgency Information Framework (IIF) using multi-agent technology and cognitive modeling. The research aims to provide decision support systems for rapid, accurate decision making to address insurgencies. The methodology uses an agent-oriented development environment, object-oriented development life cycle, model driven architecture, and multi-agent development process. Tools include JADE, Jadex, databases, and Second Life for virtual world visualization and experimentation. The conclusion states that applying this technology can extract knowledge to help the Army make more informed decisions for combating insurgencies.
This document discusses developing an Insurgency Information Framework (IIF) using multi-agent technology and cognitive modeling. The research aims to provide decision support systems for rapid, accurate decision making to address insurgencies. The methodology uses an agent-oriented development environment, object-oriented development life cycle, model driven architecture, and multi-agent development process. Tools include JADE, Jadex, databases, and Second Life for virtual world visualization and experimentation. The conclusion states that applying this software engineering approach can extract useful knowledge for more informed military decisions regarding insurgencies.
This document discusses developing an Insurgency Information Framework (IIF) using multi-agent technology and cognitive modeling. The research aims to provide decision support systems for rapid, accurate decision making to address insurgencies. The methodology uses an agent-oriented development environment, object-oriented development life cycle, model driven architecture, and multi-agent development process. Tools include JADE, Jadex, databases, and Second Life for virtual world visualization and experimentation. The conclusion states that applying this software engineering approach can extract knowledge to help the Army make more informed decisions for combating insurgencies.
This document discusses developing an Insurgency Information Framework (IIF) using multi-agent technology and cognitive modeling. The research aims to provide decision support systems for rapid, accurate decision making to address insurgencies. The methodology uses an agent-oriented development environment, object-oriented development life cycle, model driven architecture, and multi-agent development process. Tools include JADE, Jadex, databases, and Second Life for virtual world visualization and experimentation. The conclusion states that applying this technology can extract knowledge to help the Army make more informed decisions for combating insurgencies.
1. Advanced Concepts Group War on Terrorism Activities http:// www.sandia.gov/capabilitites/acg/index.html Presentation to DHS TV/TA Committee Nancy K. Hayden April 23, 2004 SAND2004-2130W Unclassified Unlimited Release Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
2.
3. Terrorism is a Complex Problem Knowledge Network The key is to better understand the future—plan to change it, and change it Logistics/ Infrastructure Social/ psychological Simulation Multidimensional Games Red, Blue, Green White, Purple MOADB indications & warnings increase hope warn first responders manipulate - deceive - control - dissuade - deter - destroy enhanced collection scenario driven hypothesis smart decision making individuals and groups mitigate Reality
4. Complexity Science Yields New Analysis Paradigms Intrinsic network features transcend domains Santa Fe Institute Workshop April 10-11, 2003 How Complex Adaptive Systems Dynamics are Related to Understanding and Modeling Terrorist Behavior Sandia, Argonne, LANL, CIA, DTRA, MITRE, Navy Cornell, U of Penn, Intel, CMU, Icosystems, USAF, Galisteo, Humana, Alidade, U of Maryland, MIIS, Brookings
5. Systems Thinking: Frame the Problem Predict Analysis Function Timeframe System Complexity Describe Explore Interpret Infer Suggest Modeling approaches depend on what problem is being addressed
13. Threat Awareness and Response Relevant Information Time Event Delayed Detection Response Threshold System Overload Desired Response Curve Today’s Response Curve
14.
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16. Long Term Solutions… Goal: understand the society and shift the distribution in our favor Lovers Lover supporters Undecided Hater supporters Haters Lovers Lover supporters Undecided Hater supporters Haters
Editor's Notes
While globalization is making the world “smaller”, we will continue to live in a world of increasing cultural, economic, and technological divides that have the potential to fuel the fires of hate and resentment against the west. In the studies done since September 11, including our own study within the ACG, one repeatedly sees calls for understanding and addressing “root causes” of terrorism, as well as understanding and protecting against our vulnerabilities. A key part of security will be understand what this means, and find ways to deal with these root causes, drawing on communication and cooperation across these divides. Current administration recognizes these factors and is engaged in proactive research partnerships globally. One such initiative is the US – Mexico Cooperation.
Structural and functional properties of complex systems rest on foundations in mathematics, physics, biology, social sciences, computer science, philosophy, art, technology. Methods developed for artificial intelligence, artificial life, catastrophe theory, chaos theory, nonlinear dynamics, evolution, systems theory, statistical mechanics can be applied cross-domains using the underlying formalisms, and structure and functional framework of networks. MIT search on complexity: information theory, computer science, physics, manufacturing, applied mathematics, electrical engineering control systems Workshop participants: Crutchfield – evolutionary dynamics, networks, need to define observables for terrorism. Castillo-Sanchez: epidemiological formalism, when applied to ideological transference examined susceptibility, resilience of extreme communities and spread of ideologies with phase transitions dependent upon initial core group size and rate of recruitment; ANL – work on interconnected networks; Eric bonabeau: swarm behaviors; psychology of terrorism; user needs; INTEL – real world problems of cyber security and organizational robustness under malicious attack scenarios. Josh Epstein – Brookings work for spread of bio-agents and inoculation strategies included people interacting with institutions and infrastructures. There were four general themes that could be abstracted from the workshop. The need for increased formalism in areas such as standardized methodologies and approaches, and accessible data sets – aka infrastructure or mechanisms allowing models and simulation tools to be built Issues related to use of the models, including definition of user needs, questions, and type of analysis desired correlated to what different model types can provide Need for emergence of new paradigms – new ways of thinking about organizations (non-linear), cross-disciplinary conversations and novel application of metaphors across fields, cross-agency conversations… Discussions around fundamental understandings of terrorist organizations as complex systems and the nature of terrorism itself
Complexity: Order from disorder – what does system structure look like? Random? Centralized? Growing? Directed? Degree of connectivity? Embedded? Timescale of Processes and decision making: Evolutionary dynamics look at functional role of network and how fitness functions evolve. Robustness can be examined with respect to how systems adapt, evolve in response to environmental perturbations – Self-aware? Here it is key to look at the immediate needs and threats, versus long term. Key will be timeframe of these – punctuated equilibria? Epochal? Diffusive? Function role for analysis (human or machine) -
ACG-sponsored workshop aimed at vetting the KnowNet concept Questions addressed: what needs KnowNet would serve, how the network might be employed by various end users and researchers, how the human and technical aspects of the network might be structured, how the KnowNet might be grown and managed, and how it might be funded Gary Ackerman, MIIS Harry Betz, FBI / NM AG Jeff Cares, Alidade Hsinchun Chen, U of AZ John Cummings, DHS David Hamon, DTRA Merle Lefkoff, LANL Mark Maybury, MITRE Ariel Merari, Peter Levine Greg Treverton, RAND Patricia Medvick, PNNL Jerrold Post, GWU Raghu Ramakrishnan, U of WI Marc Sageman, U of PA Desmond Saunders-Newton, DARPA Marissa Urgo, DOE
I will move through this section quickly, as you will be hearing more about these tools later… These tools use information accessable through the Library and News sections -Info vis tools for summarizing large data sets (VxInsight) Attensity Corp. in Salt Lake City has created what amounts to a high-tech sentence diagrammer, which can examine a document and figure out whether a reference to "Wood," for example, means a person or a place. (Washington Post) Linguistics based. Potential for ontology automation?????? -scenarios and models for representation, communication, and further analysis
Organization by information view (local navigation) is consistent with the general requirement of providing different views for different needs. VxInsight is featured, in this instance, showing the distribution of patents, with the hills showing the highest concentration of data. This particular visualization can be used to determine areas ripe for innovation. We’ve seen community and tools, next- the information….. What are other useful ways to visualize information? Are they cheap? Effective? Understandable?
See “chatter” in signal where there are ambiguous warnings and signals…when event happens, it is often too late for a resopnse – goes into system overload….like emergency room experience if wait too long to go. Need to visit doctor early on to prevent the situation in the first place, and have actionable intermediate steps if headed towards a problem. At present, have too much “chatter: in the system to know that are heading towards a problem. What are the means by which we can increase the quality of the signal? understanding the threat (know what is a significant event within a chain of events and context) understanding our vulnerabilities (contributes to relevance of information)
“With suicide terrorism, the attributional problem is to understand why nonpathological individuals respond to novel situational factors in numbers sufficient for recruiting organizations to implement policies. In the Middle East, perceived contexts in which suicide bombers and supporters express themselves include a collective sense of historical injustice, political subservience, and social humiliation vis-à-vis global powers and allies, as well as countervailing religious hope (supporting online text on radical Islam's historical novelty). Addressing such perceptions does not entail accepting them as simple reality; however, ignoring the causes of these perceptions risks misidentifying causes and solutions for suicide bombing”. Scott Atran, Science, Vol 299, March 7 2003 Beginning in the late 70’s, Mark Granovetter, initiated research into the system dynamics involved in individual and collective behaviors, developing mathematical models for thresholds of collective behaviors, and the complex relationship between these thresholds, other causal factors of behavior, and “emergent norms”, . A key concept in his work was that of “Threshold”: The number or proportion of others who must make one decision before a given actor does so. This threshold point is where net benefits begin to exceed net costs for that particular actor. In the twenty years since,a rich body of research has contributed to this field, including best seller books, such as gladwell’s “”the Tipping Point” , which looks at how major society changes can come about from little things, and Gary Klein’s work on human decision making (Sources of Power), showing the importance of recognizing “leverage points”. Recent work by Samuel Bowles and others at the Santa Fe Institute (winter 2000) has taken this work further to explore the dynamics of trust and exclusion in networks…modeling trust as a best response in a mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium…this work explores the idea of parochial networks, which he defines as “sets of agents negated in relatively frequent, non-anonymous interactions structured by high entry and exit costs, but lacking centralized collective decision-making institutions” …”often motivated by racial and ethnic hatred and religious intolerance”…as an optimization problem. These examples are part of a growing body of research work that lays a foundation for examining social dynamics in the language and formalism of complex systems analysis.