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Aaron Ratner WCEF2019: Investing in distributed infrastructure projects in the circular economy
1. Investing in Distributed Infrastructure Projects in the Circular Economy
Ultra Capital, LLC
World Circular Economy Forum
Helsinki, Finland
3-5 June, 2019
Sustainable Infrastructure & Real Assets
CONFIDENTIAL - NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION
2. Pressure on fundamental resources
• $100B per year in capital required in Ultra
Capital’s target sectors
There is a trend moving from large scale
infrastructure to small scale, distributed infrastructure
• ~15-20% of projects ($15-20B) are under $100M
Three main factors driving the Circular Economy investment thesis
THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
1ASCE Infrastructure Report Card, 2017; Stanford University, Project Center 2015; McKinsey Center for Business and Environment 2016; Preqin Infrastructure Report 2017
Traditional infrastructure investors are less
focused on sub $100M projects which
creates a funding gap
3. THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY OPPORTUNITY IN THE UNITED STATES
2
Three important trends in the US are converging
1. Electricity is becoming less expensive
• Solar, storage, natural gas, oil
2. Waste disposal is becoming more expensive
• Landfills banning organic waste
• Livestock manure in waterways
• Electronics, industrial waste increasingly toxic
• Plastic, everywhere
3. Waste is becoming more valuable
• Technology is enabling a transition from Waste-to-Energy (combustion) to
Waste-to-Value, in which materials, minerals, energy are upcycled for
reuse
• x/ Renewable Natural Gas (landfills, livestock manure)
• x/ Agriculture and food waste to livestock feed, pulp/paper,
construction materials
• x/ Lithium and cobalt recycling
4. Underwriting long-term predictable cash flows using a rigorous diligence process and data-driven approach
Project Developer
Standardized Contracts
Construction Contracts
Supply Agreements
Long-term contracts with
creditworthy institutions or
robust markets
Offtake Agreements
Long-term contracts with
creditworthy institutions or
robust markets
Real Asset Project
LLC Structure
Experienced Developer
Proven Technology
Construction Ready
PROJECT FINANCE STRUCTURE
3
Standardized Contracts
Construction Contracts
Standardized Contracts
Operations & Maintenance
Contracts
5. Technologies like Anaerobic Digestion and Advanced Recycling are gaining traction in the United States
First Commercial
Facility
Conventional
Technology
Project IRR
Solar 2012, mid-to-high teens % IRR
70-80% construction advance rate
Solar 2018, <10% IRR
85-90% construction advance rate
Ultra Capital Investment Focus
Technology Risk
Perceived Technology Risk Pricing
PROVEN TECHNOLOGIES IN INEFFICIENTLY PRICED SECTORS
4
6. Months
Fund at start of construction
IRR/RISK
10%
15%
5%
Engage early
ConstructionConstruction OperationsOperations LiquidityLiquidity
1818 120
DevelopmentDevelopment
Project Pipeline
• Lock in terms
• Work to optimize contracts
• Complete diligence and close
• Commence funding
• Construction monitoring
• Ownership of Project LLC
• Active oversight of project LLC manager
• Operation and financial controls
Signs term sheet in a project’s development phase locking in better economics and exclusivity
DEVELOPERS NEED SUPPORT ON THEIR DEVELOPMENT CURVE
5
7. RED RIVER BIOREFINERY – AGRICULTURE WASTE TO BIOFUEL
Located in Grand Forks, North Dakota, the Red River BioRefinery is a waste-to-biofuels facility capable of producing up to 16.5 million gallons of fuel-
grade ethanol per year from multiple agriculture and food processing waste streams, including sugar beets, potatoes, and other biomass waste. The
project is anchored by long-term feedstock contracts with leading food processing companies.
Red River BioRefinery Status: Fund I Funded
Agricultural Waste to Biofuel Investment Size:~$85.0M
6
Projected Return Scenarios
Gross IRR% / ROI
Base Case – Hold to Maturity
(20 years)
--.-% / -.-x
Year 5 sale at $--.-M --.-% / -.-x
Project Summary
Site Site owned by the Project and located adjacent to two significant, contracted feedstock sources.
Developer Developer has biofuel sector and technology/engineering experience, has been developing the Project for 3+ years- Several additional
projects have already been identified via existing counterparties in this Project.
Offtake Contract in place to sell 100% of ethanol produced, RINs and LCFS credits at market prices. Low CI score from waste stream utilization
and minimal transportation carbon footprint supports significant LCFS value.
Input 20-year anchor feedstock contract for sugar beet waste from large sugar co-op in the US, with $/ton linked to ethanol price. Additional
feedstock opportunities to emerge once the Project is under construction
Q1 2017
Term Sheet Signed
Q1 2018
Equity Closing
Q2 2018
Debt Closing
Q3 2018
Construction
Q3 2018
Fund I Final Close
Q4 2019
Commercial Operations Date
Q1 2020
Operations
Q2 2020
Ramped Operations
8. COASTAL RESOURCES – ADVANCED RECYCLING
Located in Hampden, ME, the project is an advanced recycling facility designed to accept 180,000 tons per year of municipal solid waste. The Project
was awarded a 15-year put-or-pay waste supply agreement with the Maine Municipal Review Committee, an organization that manages the waste
disposal activities for 187 towns in Northern Maine.
Coastal Resources Status: Fund I Funded
Municipal Solid Waste Recycling Facility Investment Size: ~$65.0M
7
Projected Return Scenarios
Gross IRR% / ROI
Base Case – Hold to Maturity
(15 years)
--.-% / -.-x
Year 5 sale at $--.-M --.-% / -.-x
Project Summary
Site Site owned by municipal entities located in Maine supplying waste to project and subleased to developer.
Developer Management has decades of domestic experience developing, building, commissioning, and operating similar plants of equal or larger
scale. We have a priority right to invest $200M in future projects.
Offtake Diversified offtake commodity revenues from recovered metals, plastics, cardboard, and other recyclable materials and engineered
fuel. Recyclables are subject to price volatility.
Input 68% of supply under 15 yr, put-or-pay contract with $70/ton tip fee, CPI escalator, and shortfall penalties in addition to tip fee.
Remaining 32% of supply is currently merchant (unlikely to contract until COD).
MRF Construction: 95% Phase I & 40% Phase II
Q4 2016
Term Sheet Signed
Q3 2017
Equity Closing
Q4 2017
Debt Closing
Q1 2018
Construction
Q3 2018
Fund I Final Close
Q2 2019
Commercial Operations Date
Q3 2019
Operations
Q2 2020
Ramped Operations
10. This presentation (the “Presentation”) is provided for informational purposes and reference only and is not intended to be, and must not be, taken as the basis for an
investment decision. By acceptance hereof, you agree that (i) the information contained herein may not be used, reproduced or distributed to others, in whole or in
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domain; and (iii) the information contains highly confidential and proprietary “trade secrets” (some which may constitute material non-public information). The
contents hereof should not be construed as investment, legal, tax or other advice. You should consult your own advisors as to legal, business, tax and other related
matters concerning an investment. Unless otherwise noted, the information contained herein has been compiled as of October 2018 and Ultra Capital has no
obligation to update the information. The delivery of this Presentation will under no circumstances create any implication that the information herein has been
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This Presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities and may not be used or relied upon in evaluating the merits of an
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(collectively, including the PPM, the “Fund Documents”) and in accordance with applicable securities laws. The information set forth herein does not purport to be
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superseded in its entirety by the Fund Documents.
Ultra Capital launched its first private investment vehicle (“Vehicle") in February 2017. Ultra Capital has no operating history managing Vehicles. This presentation
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
9
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about the investment objectives, terms and conditions of an investment in the Fund and risk disclosures that are important to any investment decision regarding the
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The market analysis, estimates and similar information, including all statements of opinion and/or belief, contained herein are subject to inherent uncertainties and
qualifications and are based on a number of assumptions. All statements in this Presentation (and oral statements made regarding the subjects of this Presentation)
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is not indicative of future results. This Presentation has been prepared for investors who are legally eligible and are suitable to invest in the type of investment
described herein. Generally, they would include investors who are “accredited investors” under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”) and “qualified
purchasers” under the U.S. Investment Company Act of 1940. It is the responsibility of any prospective investor to satisfy itself as to full compliance with applicable
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regulatory authority. Furthermore, the foregoing authorities have not passed upon the accuracy or determined the adequacy of the information contained herein.
Any representation to the contrary is a criminal offense.
Additional information is available from Ultra Capital upon request.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
10