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   P E R S P E C T I V E 	
   O N 	
  




           HEROEN VERBRUGGEN, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE
L E N N E RT T Y B E R G H E I N & O L I V I E R D E C L E R C K , G H E N T U N I V E R S I T Y
Vanessa	
  Marcelino	
         Lennert	
  Tyberghein	
                     Sofie	
  D’hondt	
  




                       OUwie	
  support:	
  Jeremy	
  Beaulieu	
  
                       Bouncing	
  ideas:	
  Olivier	
  De	
  Clerck	
  
Zachos	
  et	
  al.	
  2008	
  Nature	
  451:	
  279	
  
Do	
  niches	
  evolve	
  faster	
  when	
  climate	
  is	
  changing?	
  
                                    	
  
Any	
  evidence	
  for	
  adaptaGon	
  of	
  the	
  thermal	
  niche?	
  
                                    	
  
        Does	
  adaptaGon	
  trace	
  climate	
  change?	
  
                                    	
  
                                    	
  
                                    	
  
  Does	
  the	
  niche	
  affect	
  lineage	
  diversificaGon?	
  
                                    	
  
Dictyota	
     Codium	
  
Do	
  niches	
  evolve	
  faster	
  when	
  climate	
  is	
  changing?	
  
warming	
  

 stable	
  


cooling	
  
warming	
       stable	
        cooling	
  




   0.572	
     <	
  0.001	
     0.634	
  
warming	
            stable	
          cooling	
  




   0.572	
          <	
  0.001	
       0.634	
  




               Not	
  idenGfiable	
  
Any	
  evidence	
  for	
  adaptaFon?	
  
warming	
  

 stable	
  


cooling	
  
warming	
     stable	
     cooling	
  


α	
                    0.015	
  

θ	
        4.77	
      12.1	
       26.1	
  

σ2	
                   0.702	
  


 α	
                   0.165	
  

 θ	
       151k	
       120	
        16.4	
  

σ2	
                    5.96	
  
Does	
  adaptaFon	
  trace	
  climate	
  change?	
  
Does	
  the	
  niche	
  affect	
  lineage	
  diversificaFon?	
  
Species diversity

                 low



                high




Tittensor et al. (2010) Nature 466: 1098-1107 — Jablonski et al. (2006) Science 314: 102-106
but seaweeds…




Kerswell (2006) Ecology 10: 2479-2488
Map courtesy of Tom Schils
Codium	
  -­‐	
  SST	
  affiniGes	
  along	
  tree	
  
     C1	
        C2	
                  C3	
  




          Are speciation rates
         higher in the tropics?
Model	
  of	
  diversificaGon	
  dynamics	
  


  DiversificaGon	
  funcGon	
  of	
  trait	
  of	
  interest	
  
             (in	
  our	
  case,	
  SST)	
  



                               1
         λ=                  − β .SST +α
                  1+ e
Codium	
  -­‐	
  DiversificaGon	
  and	
  SST	
  
  C1	
         C2	
                        C3	
  




                        β = 0.18 ± 0.026
β	
  =	
  0.18	
  ±	
  0.026	
  
β	
  =	
  0.018	
  ±	
  0.021	
  




β	
  =	
  0.18	
  ±	
  0.026	
  
Caveats	
  
        	
  
        	
  
        	
  
you	
  betcha…	
  
Caveats	
  
Uncertainty	
                              Known	
  unknowns	
  
   •    PhylogeneGc	
  trees	
                 •  SensiGvity	
  of	
  analyses	
  
   •    Molecular	
  clock	
                   •  How	
  much	
  data	
  is	
  
   •    Climate	
  history	
  (δ18O)	
            enough?	
  
   •    Parameter	
  esGmates	
  
                                           Where	
  next	
  
Reduced	
  complexity	
                        •  Test	
  methods	
  with	
  solid	
  
   •  ExGncGon	
                                  datasets	
  &	
  simulaGons	
  
                                               •  Integrate	
  uncertainty	
  
   •  Intraspecific	
  variaGon	
  
                                                  using	
  fully	
  Bayesian	
  
   •  Climate	
  history	
                        approach	
  
Conclusions	
  
               	
  
 No	
  one	
  size	
  fits	
  all	
  
               	
  
No	
  flies	
  on	
  the	
  wall	
  
               	
  
Nerds	
  rule	
  the	
  game	
  
               	
  

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A macroevolutionary perspective on adaptation to environmental change in marine algae

  • 1. A   M A C R O E V O L U T I O N A R Y   P E R S P E C T I V E   O N   HEROEN VERBRUGGEN, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE L E N N E RT T Y B E R G H E I N & O L I V I E R D E C L E R C K , G H E N T U N I V E R S I T Y
  • 2. Vanessa  Marcelino   Lennert  Tyberghein   Sofie  D’hondt   OUwie  support:  Jeremy  Beaulieu   Bouncing  ideas:  Olivier  De  Clerck  
  • 3. Zachos  et  al.  2008  Nature  451:  279  
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. Do  niches  evolve  faster  when  climate  is  changing?     Any  evidence  for  adaptaGon  of  the  thermal  niche?     Does  adaptaGon  trace  climate  change?         Does  the  niche  affect  lineage  diversificaGon?    
  • 7. Dictyota   Codium  
  • 8. Do  niches  evolve  faster  when  climate  is  changing?  
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. warming   stable   cooling  
  • 12. warming   stable   cooling   0.572   <  0.001   0.634  
  • 13. warming   stable   cooling   0.572   <  0.001   0.634   Not  idenGfiable  
  • 14. Any  evidence  for  adaptaFon?  
  • 15.
  • 16. warming   stable   cooling  
  • 17. warming   stable   cooling   α   0.015   θ   4.77   12.1   26.1   σ2   0.702   α   0.165   θ   151k   120   16.4   σ2   5.96  
  • 18. Does  adaptaFon  trace  climate  change?  
  • 19.
  • 20. Does  the  niche  affect  lineage  diversificaFon?  
  • 21. Species diversity low high Tittensor et al. (2010) Nature 466: 1098-1107 — Jablonski et al. (2006) Science 314: 102-106
  • 22. but seaweeds… Kerswell (2006) Ecology 10: 2479-2488
  • 23. Map courtesy of Tom Schils
  • 24. Codium  -­‐  SST  affiniGes  along  tree   C1   C2   C3   Are speciation rates higher in the tropics?
  • 25. Model  of  diversificaGon  dynamics   DiversificaGon  funcGon  of  trait  of  interest   (in  our  case,  SST)   1 λ= − β .SST +α 1+ e
  • 26. Codium  -­‐  DiversificaGon  and  SST   C1   C2   C3   β = 0.18 ± 0.026
  • 27. β  =  0.18  ±  0.026  
  • 28. β  =  0.018  ±  0.021   β  =  0.18  ±  0.026  
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32. Caveats         you  betcha…  
  • 33. Caveats   Uncertainty   Known  unknowns   •  PhylogeneGc  trees   •  SensiGvity  of  analyses   •  Molecular  clock   •  How  much  data  is   •  Climate  history  (δ18O)   enough?   •  Parameter  esGmates   Where  next   Reduced  complexity   •  Test  methods  with  solid   •  ExGncGon   datasets  &  simulaGons   •  Integrate  uncertainty   •  Intraspecific  variaGon   using  fully  Bayesian   •  Climate  history   approach  
  • 34. Conclusions     No  one  size  fits  all     No  flies  on  the  wall     Nerds  rule  the  game