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(黄嘉华)A demand analysis for the chinese professional baseball
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(黄嘉华)A demand analysis for the chinese professional baseball
1.
1010909 體推碩 黃嘉華
2.
1997年後中華職業棒球聯盟(CPBL)的觀眾人數快 速下降 此項研究中,以普通最小二乘法(OLS)模型,估計 1990-2008中華職棒市場需求分析變化的原因 經驗證顯示,同性質的運動替代〈例如:台灣大聯 盟(TML),美國職棒大聯盟(MLB)〉與打假球醜聞, 市場需求下降的原因 此外也發現實際收入產生負面影響,使得職棒遊戲 劣質產品 1
3.
棒球是台灣的國球也是最風行的運動之一。 CPBL自1990年成立以來觀眾人數持續增長,到了 1996年有9%的年均增長率。 1995年的165萬觀眾人數達到頂峰,但到了2000 年下降到只有0.3萬人,平均每場比賽上座率最低。 只有1,676名觀眾。 雖然MLB的市場需求已被調查,但卻很少有人專注 於亞洲職業體育市場。 本文是首次探討中華職棒大聯盟需求分析。 2
4.
本研究中的因變量指的是每年聯賽觀眾出席數據指 定市場需求職棒出席人數。 四個因素受影響的體育運動觀眾人數的原因有:實 際收入、同質運動的替代品、人才遷移和假球醜聞。 目前的研究表示,亞洲國家包括韓國和台灣,由於 美國職棒大聯盟關係降低本國職棒的觀眾人數。 3
5.
CPBL自1990創盟以來,1995年的165萬觀眾人數 達到頂峰,但到了2000年下降到只有0.3萬人,平 均每場比賽上座率最低,只有1,676名觀眾。 觀眾出席率是職業運動的主要銷售收入,觀眾人數 的波動意味著門票銷售、專業專營權的變化。 4
6.
觀眾人數的變化有商業界和學術界的影響。 從商業的角度來看,了解比賽觀眾人數變化的因素 在於發展體育管理和行銷計劃可以更有效的決策並 提供有價值的訊息。 5
7.
另外以往大多的研究都集中在觀眾個體特徵以及與 橫截面數據分析比賽的觀眾出席率。 MLB的市場需求已被調查,但卻很少有人專注於亞 洲職業體育市場,因此本研究不僅是有根據的增加 體育管理域的文獻,也為體育經理人了解為什麼從 經濟的角度來看比賽觀眾出席率的波動。 6
8.
可能會影響市場需求因素:罷工、建設新球場、球 隊之間有競爭力的平衡、價格設定、球隊的勝率、 球隊名冊、實際收入、人才遷移和運動的替代品。 這項研究的目的是提高亞洲職業體育市場的關注和 理解。 利用中華職棒聯盟的數據,這項研究有可能提供與 台灣的專業運動需求和均質運動替代效應對亞洲體 育專業的需求收入彈性的經驗相關的信息。 7
9.
人才遷移的影響,在韓國已有研究;台灣也有人才 外移,所以確定是否會因為美國職棒效應進而影響 中華職棒觀眾人數變化。 最後,目前的研究涉及職棒打假球醜聞的影響,觀 眾人數變化的實證研究的不足不以成立。 8
10.
本來中華職棒大聯盟當局認為影響觀眾人數的原因 歸咎於TML和打假球醜聞。 中華職棒和賄賂球員和教練的運動替代的存在也有 聯賽的出勤產生不利影響。 台灣的棒球市場規模不能維持兩個職業棒球聯賽。 9
11.
打假球醜聞似乎破壞職棒的質與量,減少在聯賽中 球迷的信任。 為了充分消除中華職棒打假球的醜聞,強烈建議當 局應採取行動,防止該類似作弊行為並此建議增加 中華職棒球員的薪資。 10
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