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A Business Opportunity
for Indian firms from
the Global Growth in
Wind Energy/ Shale
Gas / Nuclear sector
A Thought Leadership Document
For Indian Industry
Prepared by
SGMP Thought Leadership and Advisory OPC Private Limited.
2
Table of Contents
1) A Thought Leadership Document and its specific Objectives………………………….3
2) Introduction and Proposition………………………….……………………….………...4
3) Wind Energy Supply Chain Sector
i) Synopsis of the Recommended Strategy Roadmap……………………………...7
ii) Using Global Growth Forecasts and Trends as a Compelling Proposition……..8
iii) Defining the Supply Chain Ecosystem for Actionable Intelligence……………10
iv) Key Takeaways for Indian Companies and Developing a Strategy Roadmap…11
v) India Wind Energy Buyer’s Guide……………………….…………………….12
4) Shale Gas Supply Chain Sector
i) Synopsis of the Recommended Strategy Roadmap…………………………..…14
Using Global Growth Forecasts and Trends as a Compelling Proposition…..…15
ii) Defining the Supply Chain Ecosystem for Actionable Intelligence……….……17
iii) Key Takeaways for Indian Companies and Developing a Strategy Roadmap….19
5) Nuclear Energy Supply Chain Sector
i) Synopsis of the Recommended Strategy Roadmap……………………………..22
ii) Using Global Growth Forecasts and Trends as a Compelling Proposition……..23
iii) Defining the Supply Chain Ecosystem for Actionable Intelligence…………….24
iv) Key Takeaways for Indian Companies and Developing a Strategy Roadmap ...26
v) India Nuclear Energy Buyer’s Guide……………………………………...…….28
6) Consultants Profile……………………………………...……………………………….31
3
A Thought Leadership Document and its specific Objectives
A Business Opportunity for Indian firms from the Global Growth in the Wind Energy/ Shale Gas /
Nuclear sector is a Thought Leadership Document prepared by SGMP Thought Leadership and Advisory
OPC Private Limited.
Globally there is a surge in the capacity installations of Wind Energy/ Shale Gas / Nuclear sector. Also
the capacity installation growth is directly correlated to the demand growth for materials that go into it.
Hence materials right from customized Fabricated Parts to Castings to Wires, everything will have
Exponential Growth Curve in the usage. Apart from opportunities for Material supplying organisations,
there is also a vast scope for service oriented organization also. Apart from materials, there is growing
demand for services related to these sectors(for e.g. for EPC Companies)
We believe and advocate as a Thought Leader that Indian companies need to tap this Business
Opportunity and should not miss the Bus. Also that this is a highly Profitable Proposition. Indian
companies should highlight their Sales Proposition as World Class Quality at Competitive Pricing, and
Guaranteed on Time Supply.
But there are serious challenges that need to be addressed. Hence this document aims to highlight the
Driving and Restraining Factors to this issue. Some global Examples and Success stories have been
showcased like Nuclear Clusters in France and Finland.
Also if there is a support from the Indian Corporate domain then this document is proposed to be
presented to the Prime Minster Office (PMO) for Review and Action (preferably to be included under
Make in India scheme).
We also wish that the Indian corporation review this document in detail and also view this as a Call to
Arms against competition.
4
Introduction and Proposition
SGMP Thought Leadership and Advisory OPC Private Limited is an India focused Corporate or Business
Advisory and Investments Company, involved in the mapping the Business Opportunities arising from
the Nation’s Economic, Business and Industrial scenario, working with Conglomerates/ Organisations
and their senior management throughout the value chain of enterprises, ranging from OEMs, Component
Manufacturers, Private Equity / Venture Capital firms, High Networth Individuals (HNIs), Industry
Associations etc. It believes in the delivering high quality services to Indian Corporates based on its
Thought Leadership in selected areas from time to time.
Our offerings comprise:
Sector specific Thought Leadership Research
Strategic Roadmaps for Market & Products
Policy Advisory
Due diligence for JV Partnerships and Transfer of Technology (ToTs) agreements
Sector related Investment Advisory (buy and sell side)
Sector Insights and Compliance
Market Assessment, Mapping and Evolution insights
Our services are proposed to be extended to sectors across Business spectrum including:
Aerospace, Defence & Security
Business & Financial Services
Digital Transformation
Education
Energy (Nuclear, Thermal, Renewable, Hydro) & Environment
Industrial Automation & Process Control
Manufacturing Leadership
Manufacturing & Process Consulting
Measurement & Instrumentation
Metals & Minerals
Mobility: Automotive & Transportation
5
Public Sector & Government
Tech Vision
Transformational Health
Visionary Science (Chemicals, Materials & Food, PPE)
Agriculture and allied activities
Out services are to be delivered with inputs from sector specialist teams that includes Ex-Senior
Government officials, Industry leaders , Defence Personnel , Ex-Police Personnel with extensive
experience in the Indian sector and international markets.
6
Wind Energy Supply
Chain Sector
7
Synopsis of the Recommended Strategy Roadmap
As mentioned the objective of the Thought Leadership Document is to drive amongst the Indian
Corporates, on the need to go after global Wind Energy sector in a proper manner. In order to give a
boost to the Indian companies, there is a need to get some firm Enquiries that can be converted to
profitable orders.
Hence a focused Marketing Initiative has to be taken, as a first step forward it is recommended that India
Wind Energy Buyer’s Guide to be published and circulated so that awareness is created about the
presence and interest of Indian suppliers on the global forum.
It is well known that India has the complete Supply Chain Ecosystem to cater to the demand of the global
sector but it is felt that this fact is not defined properly.
Globally the Supply Chain Ecosystem is properly defined and presented by National and Sub-National
Industry Associations in form of a Buyer’s Guide.
Some few successful initiatives have been highlighted below:
1. Syndicat Des Energies Renouvelables (A France based National Industry Association also called
as French Renewable Energy Association)
2. Aquitaine Wind Industry Cluster (A France based Sub-National Industry Association)
3. NOF Energy (A UK based National Industry Association)
4. Aberdeen Renewable Energy Group (A UK based Sub-National Industry Association)
www.aberdeenrenewables.com
Preparation of the Strategy Roadmap for the Industry level is very Complex and Resource intensive. Also
it will require the support of the Indian industry. In broad terms it is recommended that an Ecosystem be
formed with cooperation of interested parties (Indian Corporates).
On a individual corporate level, it recommended that a core team (with definite authority) be formed to
review the Global Data and Trends. Based the data, Actionable Intelligence be produced and based on
which a strategy Roadmap by combining tools like SWOT Analysis, Porter's Five Forces and PESTLE
Analysis.
SGMP Thought Leadership and Advisory OPC Private Limited also proposes to Herein proposes to
develop a customized Business Strategy Roadmap for interested parties in an Advisory Role.
8
Using Global Growth Forecasts and Trends as a Compelling
Proposition
Wind Energy Growth:
The global market for wind turbine should reach $71.2 billion by 2022, growing at a compound
annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.7% from 2017 to 2022.
North America market for wind turbine should reach $15.3 billion by 2022, growing at a CAGR
of 7.8% from 2017 to 2022.
Asia-Pacific market for wind turbine should reach $26.1 billion by 2022, growing at a CAGR of
5.9% from 2017 to 2022.
The Challenge for the Indian companies is that how to capture the projected Growth rate of the wind
energy sector as their business revenues or on to their balance Sheets.
What are specific products or services that will see higher growth rate?
What are the products or services that align with the current portfolio or core competencies?
What are the Certifications / Compliances or other investments required to be able to offer to the
global sector?
How much serious is Threat from the Restraining Factors such as Competition and National
Industry Competitive Image?
The Wind Energy Sector is not a homogenous lot and has classification which is a diverse lot. Different
nations or regions have different segments as their priorities. The Chart below illustrates the
Classification for Wind Energy Turbines (Only Onshore classification has been shown for better
illustration).
Wind Energy
Turbines
Offshore
Onshore
Geared DDPMG
Small
Medium
Large
Gearless
DDSG
Small
Medium
Large
DDPMG
Small
Medium
Large
I. DFIG stands for Doubly Fed Induction Generators
II. DDSG stands for Direct Drive Doubly Fed Synchronous Generators
III. DDPMG stands for Direct Drive Permanent-Magnet-Generators
9
The Chart below highlights materials used in Construction of Wind Energy Turbines (by main
components). The Classification and Data Chart indicate how complex it is to determine the product
portfolio for Wind Energy Turbines/ Sector.
Wind Energy Turbines
Gear
Steel
Lubricants
Hydraulic system
Hydraulic Oil,
Alloyed Steel
Rotor blades
Glass Fibre, Carbon
Fibre , Polyester
Resin, Epoxy Resin,
Aluminum
Tower
Low Alloyed Steel,
Concrete
Foundation
Low Alloyed Steel,
Concrete
Nacelle
Aluminum
Epoxy Resin, Glass
Fibre
Grid Connection
Copper,
Plastics
Generator
Steel, Copper, Cast
Iron, Cr-Steel,
Aluminum
Rare Earth Elements
Drive Train
Cast iron, Cr-Steel
Rubber
Rotor Hub Cast Iron, Cr-Steel
Strategic Metals Mineral Materials Bulk Metals Plastics
Material demand data for Wind Energy Turbines
Location Type
Rated
power
(MW)
Material amounts (tonnes)
Concrete Bulk
metals
Plastics Copper Permanent
Magnets
Onshore
DDPMG 1.5 805.0 230.6 46.3 4.1 0.9
DDSG 2.3 1,880.0 286.6 44.7 10.6 0.0
DFIG 3.0 1,930.5 418.7 52.3 7.0 0.0
Offshore
DDPMG 5 528.0 1,450.1 108.8 12.2 2.8
DDSG 7 739.2 2,108.5 112.2 39.5 0.0
DFIG 12 0.0 1,441.2 112.5 10.7 0.0
I. DFIG stands for Doubly Fed Induction Generators
II. DDSG stands for Direct Drive Doubly Fed Synchronous Generators
III. DDPMG stands for Direct Drive Permanent-Magnet-Generators
10
Defining a Supply Chain Ecosystem
The previous section provided a lot of data and trends, but Indian companies would face challenges as to
how to use the disparate data into Actionable Intelligence, so that proper planning can be done and
suitable Strategy Roadmap can be evolved.
The Supply Chain Ecosystem has been defined in following Broad Categories and Sub-Categories:
1) Roadway Work – Special Transport
2) Wind Turbine Assembly
i. Onshore
ii. Domestic
iii. Offshore
3) MANUFACTURE OF COMPONENTS
i) Foundry pieces
ii) Towers and bases
iii) Nacelles
iv) Blades
v) Yaw drive systems
vi) Electrical components
vii) Mechanical Pieces
viii) Brakes
4) Site Preparation
5) Assembly
6) Grid Connection
7) Commissioning
8) Operation And Maintenance
Indian companies need to identify what are the products or services that align with the current portfolio or
core competencies and accordingly prepare their Strategy.
11
Key Takeaways for Indian Companies and Developing a Strategy
Roadmap
The Global Growth Forecast and Trends indicate that the sector is a Compelling Proposition and there is a
need to develop a Growth oriented and Sustainable (Profitable) business.
I. It is recommended that Indian companies create /develop an Autonomous / Highly Independent
Team to cater to the sector from their existing set up. The Team In-charge to be of the level of
Director.
II. Tools such as SWOT Analysis, Porter's Five Forces and PESTLE Analysis are to be used to
understand its competitiveness, challenges and develop Strategy Roadmap.
III. The need for Transfer of Technologies (ToTs), Joint Ventures (JVs) or Private Equity (PE)
Funding to be properly highlighted.
IV. Short listing of firms for ToTs, JVs or PE Funding to be done and Expression of interest (EoI) be
sent to them.
V. A draft of Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) be prepared for interested parties. It should
include the vision of the Indian corporation that should be Compelling Proposition.
VI. On the side of servicing clients / Customers, , A water tight Service Level Agreement (SLA) to be
prepared such that it promises World Class Quality at Competitive Pricing, and Guaranteed on
Time Supply.
VII. Advisors/ Consultants are to be appointed to assist in the process.
VIII. A definite Time Frame is set to execute this (Gantt Chart based)
12
India Wind Energy Buyer’s Guide
A sample copy of India Wind Energy Buyer’s Guide is proposed here. Interested Indian companies are
requested to fill in the details and mail it to us for compilation and further circulation.
Broad
Categories/
Group
ROADWAY
WORK–SPECIAL
TRANSPORT
WINDTURBINE
ASSEMBLY
MANUFACTURE
OF
COMPONENTS
SITE
PREPARATION
ASSEMBLY
GRID
CONNECTION
COMMISSIONING
OPERATIONAND
MAINTENANCE
Company
Names
Company A 1 2
Company B 1 2
Company C 1 2
Company D 1 2
Company E 1 2
Company F 1 2
Company G 1
Company H 1
Key: 1 = Primary area of competence 2 = Secondary area of competence.
SubCategory
of
Manufacture
Of
Components
Foundry
pieces
Towersand
bases
Nacelles
Blades
Yawdrive
systems
Electrical
components
Mechanical
Pieces
Brakes
Company Names
Company B
Company I
Company J
Company K
Company L
13
Shale Gas Supply Chain
Sector
14
Synopsis of the Recommended Strategy Roadmap
Shale Gas production is relatively new sector and evolving across the globe. Apart from the US, no other
nation has started mass production of shale gas.
Herein we would focus upon certain segment like Steel, Rigs, Hydraulic Fracturing Equipment as well as
shared infrastructure for Water Treatment, Waste Disposal and Gas Processing, in which India has some
existent Competences. The idea is to fine-tune the Demand forecast so that the full potential of the
competencies is realized.
Herein from a Case Study of projected demand from UK Shale Gas sector the forecast for global demand
and requirement is shown.
The US Department of Energy (DOE) played an important role in the country’s shale gas success by
collaborating with the industry and other technical institutes for research in shale gas technology in the
1970s. In 2010, China created a National Gas Shale Research Center to assist the development of the
domestic shale industry.
In India some steps have taken but the seriousness is missing. Given the challenges of acquisition of land
or environmental damage, it is very unlikely that Shale gas production on the mass scale will take off in
India. At present there seems no sort of strong advocacy in favour of developing domestic shale gas or
even CBM. Indian companies like Reliance Industries and ONGC have invested in US Shale Gas assets
instead of domestic ones.
Hence the document is only discussing how Indian companies can encash on the development of Shale
Gas worldwide as a Service and Material provider. Also as how It makes a Business Case for having
either a full-fledged autonomous Business Unit (BU) or atleast a Strategy Roadmap to tap the potential.
15
Using Global Growth Forecasts and Trends as a Compelling Proposition
Worldwide natural gas production is expected to increase from 342 billion cubic feet per day in 2015 to
554 Bcf/d by 2040, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The largest component of
the growth is natural gas production from shale resources, which grows from 42 Bcf/d in 2015 to 168
Bcf/d by 2040, According to EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2016.
Shale gas is expected to account for 30 percent of world natural gas production by the end of the forecast
period.
(Source: EIA)
Country
Shale Gas Production
Billion Cubic Feet Per
Day (BCF/d) 2015
Shale Gas Production
Billion Cubic Feet Per
Day (BCF/d) 2040
(projected)
Percentage of Shale
Gas in total Natural
gas production (%)
Worldwide 42 168 30
USA 37 79 70
China 0.5 22 40
Canada 5 7 30
Mexico 0 8 75
Algeria 0 8 33
Argentina 0 8 70
According to above figure, although currently only four countries, the United States, Canada, China, and
Argentina, have commercial shale gas production, technological improvements over the forecast period
are expected to encourage the development of shale resources in other countries, primarily in Mexico and
16
Algeria. Together, these six countries are projected to account for 70 percent of global shale production
by 2040 (as shown in the table).
The image below showcases the Shale Gas reserves globally in Trillion cubic feet (TCF).
Herein from the above image it can be seen US and China have the largest reserves of Shale Gas. But the
challenge is to be able to recover the gas, while US has put on ground the production of shale gas on
mass scale by placing Regulations, Finance, Technology, Manpower in right place, China is yet to achive
that.
Herein it can be seen that in Europe, UK has comparatively less reserves than France, but it has placed
regulatory laws favouring Shale gas, while France has not. But on the other hand Poland has put in
regulations favoring investments in the sector making it more favourable.
In the following a study dome for the UK Shale Gas sector has been taken as an example of the
investments required for commissioning of the project and the category spends. This has also defined the
Supply Chain mechanism.
17
Defining the Supply Chain Ecosystem for Actionable Intelligence
The following the categories of Supply Chain for Shale Gas sector. The categories are ranked according
to proportion of spend per drilling project. For Indian corporations to be able to project themselves as
competitive sources of Services, Equipments, materials and Personnel, it is recommended that that India
Shale Gas Project Buyers Guide be developed, preferably on the segments mentioned below.
1. Hydraulic fracturing equipment and personnel
2. Steel casing
3. Rig hire
4. Proppant
5. Waste water management
6. Drilling waste management
7. Ancillary equipment and services
8. Cementing Services
9. Waste transportation
10. Directional drilling service
11. Chemicals
12. Drilling fluids and fluids engineering
13. Water storage and transportation
14. Drill rig fuel
Investments for Supply Chain in Shale Gas Projects
According to a study was commissioned by the UK Onshore Operators Group (UKOOG) to identify any
supply chain in UK for Shale Gas development, It identified that over a period of 16 years (2016–32)
£33billion of spend could be Required To Bring Up To 4,000 Wells Into Production.
The breakup of major part of mentioned £33billion of spends, that are the Key Opportunities and
Requirements for Supply Chain Providers are mentioned in the Table below:
Components of Spends GBP (£) Billion As a Percentage of
Total Spend
Hydraulic fracturing 20.5
62
18
Drilling & completions 8.2 25
Waste management 2.8 8
Storage and transportation 1.3 4
Other 0.5 1
The study also mentions shows that the shale industry will need to purchase 12,600 km of underground
steel casing with a total spend of £2.3 billion. In addition, we will need to purchase some 50 landward
rigs and some workover rigs at a total cost of £1.6 billion, 9 million tonnes of sand and will require some
£1.2 billion of ancillary equipment and services.
In Shale Gas terminology, a horizontal drill site called a Pad, generally six-acre used to extract gas from
an underground area 1,000 acres in size. According to the UKOOG study to bring a single pad on-stream
will require £333m, (comprising of approx 40 wells).
Breakdown of spend categories for a
single pad (10 vertical wells; 40 lateral wells)
GBP
(£)
GBP (£)
Hydraulic fracturing —total 205
Equipment 170.6
Proppant 2.2
Mobilisation/demobilisation 4.5 /7.4
Miscellaneous 20.3
Drilling & completions — total 82.6
Steel casing 23
Rig hire 21.7
Ancillary equipment and service 11.9
Cementing Services 8.2
Directional drilling service 7.5
Drilling fluids & fluids engineering 5.7
Drill rig fuel 4.6
Waste disposal — total 27.7
Water waste management 14.5
Drilling waste management 13.2
Storage & transportation — total 12.7
Waste transportation 7.5
Water storage and transportation 5.2
Other 5
The above Table gives an approximation of spend per category for a particular country for single
site. Thus this data can can be extrapolated for other countries also using PESTLE analysis as
Actionable Intelligence for data driven Decision Making.
19
Key Takeaways for Indian Companies and Developing a Strategy Roadmap
According to EIA and reports of other Consultancy firms, the scope of Shale Gas extraction looks
extremely challenging given the fact that it requires large tracts of land and consumes a lot of water.
Thus Indian companies would have develop the competency in shale Gas Supply Chain exclusively for
foreign markets only.
In India, there has been the case of Guar Gum production and processing that has benefitted extremely
from Shale gas development.
But India companies need to move up the Value chain from providing material (for. e.g. Steel casings) to
services to manpower.
Countries like Algeria and Poland where some significant investments have been made in Shale Gas,
India companies should try to tap into these opportunities. Since legislation has been passed in UK
approving Hydraulic fracturing it is market, whereas France and Germany do allow for it.
SGMP Thought Leadership and Advisory OPC Private Limited advocates the use PESTLE Analysis for
that Indian corporations interested in developing. The Table illustrated below showcases how a country
by country analysis can be done for Knowledge based Decision making process.
Parameters
Countries
Australia Algeria Argentina Poland UK USA
Social Risks
Brand/reputation damage
Backlash against US shale
revolution
Major accident/incident
Preference for other energy
forms
Environmental Risks
Greenhouse gas emissions
Water shortages
Pollution
Industrialization
Infrastructure degradation
20
Economic Risks
Rise of LNG on global
market
Compliance costs
Future market structure
Moratorium/operational
stoppage
Tax structures
Impact of partner decisions/
actions of others in industry
Partner/JV/Outsourcing
arrangements
Geopolitical Risks
Transit uncertainties
Decisions on energy sources
Political/economic
instability
International relations
Technological Risks
Poor well performance
Lack of infrastructure
Reserves uncertainty
Reserves accessibility
Equipment shortages
Regulatory Risks
Energy and climate change
policies
Government capacity
Mineral rights
21
Nuclear Energy Supply
Chain Sector
22
Synopsis of the Recommended Strategy Roadmap
According to a World Nuclear Association presentation, 295 new Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are under
construction or planned. The value of Nuclear Construction till 2030 is a staggering US$ 1,232 billion.
The estimated value of International Procurement US$ 575 billion. (50 in OECD countries,118 in
China,42 in Former Soviet Union,21 in India).
In May 2017, Government of India (GoI) announced that it will build 10 heavy water reactors to boost its
nuclear power capacity. In a Government Press Release it quoted “In a first of its kind project for India’s
nuclear power sector the ten new units will come up in fleet mode as a fully homegrown initiative. It
would be one of the flagship “Make in India” projects in this sector
Another Power Ministry document cites that India has ambitious nuclear power expansion plans (almost
10x of current capacity) by the year 2032 by setting up nuclear reactors based on both indigenous
technologies of PHWRs and FBRs and by the year 2032 by setting up nuclear reactors based on both
indigenous technologies of PHWRs and FBRs and large size LWRs based on international cooperation.
It is necessary that a larger base of Indian companies should be able to tap the opportunities in global
nuclear sector. That there is a need to build upon existing nuclear supply chain capability in India through
proper Mapping Process, enabling India based firms to compete in the manufacture of Engineering items
(for e.g. large forgings).
Hence herein also a focused Marketing Initiative has to be taken, as a first step forward it is
recommended that India Nuclear Engineering Buyer’s Guide to be published and circulated so that
awareness is created about the presence and interest of Indian suppliers on the global forum.
Globally the Supply Chain Ecosystem is properly defined and presented by National and Sub-National
Industry Associations in form of a Buyer’s Guide.
Some few successful initiatives have been highlighted below:
1. FinNuclear (A Finland based National Industry Association to support Finnish nuclear industry)
2. GIIN (Groupe Intersyndical de l’Industrie Nucléaire-French Nuclear Suppliers Association is the
association which has been representing and bringing together French companies operating in the
nuclear industry
3. Pôle Nucléaire Bourgogne(Burgundy Nuclear Partnership) (A France based Sub-National
Industry Association)
4. USNIC (United States Nuclear Infrastructure Council representing the “Who’s Who” of the
nuclear supply chain community)
On a individual corporate level, it recommended that a core team (with definite authority) be formed to
review the Global Data and Trends. Based the data, Actionable Intelligence be produced and based on
which a strategy Roadmap by combining tools like SWOT Analysis, Porter's Five Forces and PESTLE
Analysis.
SGMP Thought Leadership and Advisory OPC Private Limited also proposes to Herein proposes to
develop a customized Business Strategy Roadmap for interested parties in an Advisory Role.
23
Using Global Growth Forecasts and Trends as a Compelling
Proposition
Nuclear Energy Growth:
According to World Nuclear Association (WNA) the value of Nuclear Construction to 2030 , of
Planned Build* US$ 1,232 billion. There is also an additional US$ 87 billion market for
Decommissioning
o North America Under construction: 5 Planned: 7 Total Value: $ 90 Billion
o Latin America Under construction: 2 Planned: 1 Total Value: $ 14 Billion
o Europe (EEA) Under construction: 4 Planned: 20 Total Value: $ 190 Billion
o West Asia Under construction: 2 Planned: 16 Total Value: $ 92 Billion
o Africa Under construction: 0 Planned: 4 Total Value: $ 22 Billion
o
o Former Soviet Union Under construction: 11 Planned: 31 Total Value: $ 183 Billion
o South Asia Under construction: 7 Planned: 18 Total Value: $ 65 Billion
o East Asia Under construction: 36 Planned: 125* Total Value: $ 545 Billion
o
o Southeast Asia Under construction: 0 Planned: 6 Total Value: $ 31 Billion
Estimated Value of International Procurement US$ 575 billion North America market should
reach $15.3 billion by 2022, growing at a CAGR of 7.8% from 2017 to 2022.
*Reactors currently under construction in China, India, UAE, USA, etc. have an aggregate project value of approx. US$ 232 billion.
The Challenge for the Indian companies is that how to capture the projected Growth rate of the wind
energy sector as their business revenues or on to their balance Sheets.
What are specific products or services that will see higher growth rate?
What are the products or services that align with the current portfolio or core competencies?
What are the Certifications / Compliances or other investments required to be able to offer to the
global sector?
How much serious is Threat from the Restraining Factors such as Competition and National
Industry Competitive Image?
The Nuclear Energy Sector is a very high technology sector and requires great degree of investments.
24
Defining the Supply Chain Ecosystem for Actionable Intelligence
A typical procurement pyramid is shown below.
The market opportunities associated with the development of the Nuclear Powe Plants can be split into:
1. Civil Works
2. Nuclear Steam Supply System
3. Mechanical Systems – nuclear and non-nuclear
4. Electrical Systems – nuclear and non-nuclear
5. Turbine Island
1. Civil Works: The three main civil packages are:
i) Earthworks
ii) Marine and Tunnelling Works
iii) Main Civil Works
2. Nuclear Steam Supply System: it may require support services from the supply chain associated with:
i) Transportation, lifting and mechanical installation of major equipment and pipework.
ii) Supply, prefabrication and installation of small bore ancillary pipework around the reactor
vessel / steam generator.
Operators like NPCIL
in India
Reactor &
Turbine Vendors,
Major Civil, Mechanical
& Electrical Contractors
Smaller Companies with
and without Nuclear Experience
Tier 1
Contractors
Tier 2,3,4
Contractors
25
iii) Provision of structural steel restraints and pipework supports.
iv) Welding services.
v) NDT services.
3. Mechanical Systems: Contact Manufacturers of this type of equipment and position themselves to
provide equipment, subassemblies or support services associated with these contracts. There are several
mechanical installation packages to be awarded such as:
I. Balance of Nuclear Island Mechanical Equipment
II. Balance of Plant Mechanical Equipment
III. Nuclear HVAC Plant Installation
IV. Non Nuclear HVAC Plant Installation
V. Waste Treatment Packages
4. Electrical Systems: The electrical contracts will be split into at least five major packages. These
include:
I. Construction Electrical Supplies
II. IEG Scope (general electrical erection)
III. Small Power and Lighting
IV. Fire and Hydrogen Detection
V. IT and Communications Infrastructure
VI. Ancillary Buildings’ Works
5. Turbine Island: there exists a market for packages such as:
I. Main Steam and Feed Water Pipework Systems
II. Turbine Auxiliary Pipework
III. Moisture Separator Reheater and Deaerator Vessels
IV. Feed Heaters
V. Assorted Vessels and Tanks
26
Key Takeaways for Indian Companies and Developing a Strategy
Roadmap
The Case Study discussed below points out to a Business Case for Indian on National as well some sub-
national level for Nuclear Clusters that can leverage the technical and financial competencies of members.
Pôle Nucléaire Bourgogne (Burgundy Nuclear Partnership) as a symbol of leveraging of core
competency on sub-national/ industry segment level
France is a leader in nuclear power generation and also technology. The region of Burgundy in France,
had long been associated with metallurgy owing to the presence of important coal and iron ore reserves.
Because of its expertise in heavy forging, Burgundy benefited from the French nuclear industry
development as most heavy components installed in the 58 French PWR have been produced here.
In 2005 French Government initiated a cluster policy aimed at structuring French industries & boosting
R&D activities. A ‘nuclear cluster’ was proposed by key Burgundy nuclear players (EDF, Areva,
Vallourec, CEA & local university & engineering schools) and was approved by the Government. By
2011 PNB has grown to almost 140 members and
Pôle Nucléaire Bourgogne (Burgundy Nuclear Partnership) was thus formed. Now this competency is
being leverage by the French government and companies.
The association also
o Co-ordinates R&D projects. e.g. ‘Thermide’ a € 5.99m project modelling of forming and
heat processes for metal parts which involves seven PNB companies including Areva,
Arcelor Mittal & CEA and ‘Tocata’ €2.18m project to develop a new optical NDT
technique and involves five PNB members and eight other partners.
o Undertakes outreach. e.g. PNB booths in the‘Nuclear Village’ at Industry fair in Lyon
and French Energy Industry’ at Powergen in Milan.
o Provides technical training courses. e.g. on RCC-M & ASME nuclear standards and
Executive education.
As a Case Study for India
• India can also develop such a cluster with the association of companies like BHEL, L&T, JSW,
Bharat Forge etc in places where there is a major presence of metallurgical industry such as
Rajkot, Jalandhar, Coimbatore or Jamshedpur.
• Specific India centric R&D projects can be initiated with corporate and government pooling in
resources.
• Projection of India’s nuclear metallurgy competence can be showcased on various international
forms on joint basis.
• Technical training courses. e.g. on ASME nuclear standards can be made accessible to Tier3,
Tier4
27
The comparative analysis of the existent nuclear clusters like Pôle Nucléaire Bourgogne (France)
FinNuclear of Finland with that of a proposed Indian nuclear cluster has been showcased below. It is also
a Call for Action for formation of cluster on below proposed points.
Pôle Nucléaire Bourgogne (France) FinNuclear Proposed India Cluster
structure
Cluster structure
Mature cluster with more than 140
members and experienced cluster co-
ordination body
Emergent cluster with
more than100 members
and small coordination
team
No cluster structure at
present
Financing
Cluster has moderate access to investment
capital
Cluster has moderate
access
to investment capital
The industry , as a cluster has
not yet sought to access
investment capital
Cluster typology and
governance
Strong governance and coordination
of cluster activities to meet recognized
objectives
Strong governance and
coordination
of cluster activities to
meet recognized
objectives
No mechanism for cluster
governance or co-ordination
Diversity of services
Significant R&D programme (€35m) and
international outreach and collaboration
International outreach
and collaboration
Full range of services offered
but no formal co-ordination
Output of services
Cluster companies have played an
important part in French build programme
with particular expertise in large
components
Some cluster companies
have
been involved in recent
new
build in Finland
Significant track-record of
delivering nuclear products
and services to new-build in
India. Companies like L&T,
BHEL, HCC, Kirloskar are
mentionable.
Internationalisation
Largely French focus but with
international outlook
Almost exclusively
focused on new build in
Finland
International focus lacking
but with
significant India business
Achievements and
performance
Created strong regional identity in the
nuclear game with significant success
stories in the nuclear supply chain
Developing regional
and national identity
with the capability of
delivering success
stories and growth
International recognition
of capability but does not
derive this from cluster
28
India Nuclear Energy Buyer’s Guide
SGMP Thought Leadership and Advisory OPC Private Limited proposes to publish Buyers Guide titled
The Indian Nuclear Engineering Supplier Base. The core objective behind this initiative is to highlight
the Indian companies (Capabilities and Competencies) in the most appropriate manner, i.e. as being a
preferential choice as vendors for upcoming domestic or international nuclear new build projects.
The publication is also proposed to acts as summary for national supply chain capability and capacity.
The fact-based evidence is intended to inform both government and Industry associations of strategies
needed in the development of the supply chain fraternity, so that firms can capitalize on business growth
opportunities through the development of the India nuclear new build supply chain.
Group
Net Maintenance, operation &
decommissioning works,
Civils Heavy Components Group
Company
Company
Name 1
Company
Name 2
Company
Name 3
Company
Name 4
Company
Name 5
Company
Name 6
Company
Name 7
Design 1 2
Consulting 1 2 2
Engineering 1 2
Management (project
& quality) 2 2
Manufacturing 2 1
Materials technology
& supply 2 1
Components 2 1
Equipment & systems
Site activities
Site management
Civil works,
construction
Installation 1
Inspection 1
Maintenance 1
Other
Key: 1 = Primary area of competence, 2 = Secondary area of competence. Shown for illustration
purposes only.
Contd…
29
Group Other components IT
Engineering
and Design
services
Other
supporting
functions
Company
Company
Name 8
Company
Name 9
Company
Name 10
Company
Name 11
Company
Name 12
Design
Consulting
Engineering
Management (project
& quality)
Manufacturing
Materials technology
& supply
Components
Equipment & systems
Site activities
Site management
Civil works,
construction
Installation
Inspection
Maintenance
Other
Group
Non
destructive
testing and
certification
R&D Mechanical
sub-
contracting
Finance Education
Company
Company
Name 13
Company
Name 14
Company
Name 15
Company
Name 16
Company
Name 17
Company
Name 18
Design
Consulting
Engineering
Management (project
& quality)
Manufacturing
Materials technology
& supply
Components
Equipment & systems
Site activities
Site management
Civil works,
construction
30
Consultants Profile
31
He has worked extensively with the leading Corporates of
India, advising them on matters pertaining to Corporate
Strategy and New Business development. He is currently
associated with a lot of US and Canada based organizations
helping them effectively map the Indian markets across
diverse sectors ranging from Capitals Goods to Defense
Sector to Financial Services.
He works with clients often to help clients crystallise their
needs and prepare a scope for the front end planning and
engineering which is critical for the success of any project.
Services are then tailored to suit the client’s needs.
Siddhartha Guha
Director and Founder CEO,
SGMP Thought Leadership
and Advisory OPC Private
Limited, Mumbai, India
32
To know more about the Thought Leadership document or
customized Concept Note, please contact:
Siddhartha Guha
Director and Founder CEO,
SGMP Thought Leadership and
Advisory OPC Private Limited,
Mumbai, India
Skype: siddharthaguha1
Email:
siddharthaguha1@rediffmail.com ,
siddharthaguha1@gmail.com
Handphone: +91-9819452045
Information in this publication is intended to provide only a general outline of the subjects covered. It should neither
be regarded as comprehensive nor sufficient for making decisions, nor should it be used in place of professional
advice. SGMP Thought Leadership Advisory OPC Private Limited accepts no responsibility for any loss arising
from any action taken or not taken by anyone using this material.

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A business opportunity for indian firms from the global growth in wind energy shale gas nuclear sector

  • 1. A Business Opportunity for Indian firms from the Global Growth in Wind Energy/ Shale Gas / Nuclear sector A Thought Leadership Document For Indian Industry Prepared by SGMP Thought Leadership and Advisory OPC Private Limited.
  • 2. 2 Table of Contents 1) A Thought Leadership Document and its specific Objectives………………………….3 2) Introduction and Proposition………………………….……………………….………...4 3) Wind Energy Supply Chain Sector i) Synopsis of the Recommended Strategy Roadmap……………………………...7 ii) Using Global Growth Forecasts and Trends as a Compelling Proposition……..8 iii) Defining the Supply Chain Ecosystem for Actionable Intelligence……………10 iv) Key Takeaways for Indian Companies and Developing a Strategy Roadmap…11 v) India Wind Energy Buyer’s Guide……………………….…………………….12 4) Shale Gas Supply Chain Sector i) Synopsis of the Recommended Strategy Roadmap…………………………..…14 Using Global Growth Forecasts and Trends as a Compelling Proposition…..…15 ii) Defining the Supply Chain Ecosystem for Actionable Intelligence……….……17 iii) Key Takeaways for Indian Companies and Developing a Strategy Roadmap….19 5) Nuclear Energy Supply Chain Sector i) Synopsis of the Recommended Strategy Roadmap……………………………..22 ii) Using Global Growth Forecasts and Trends as a Compelling Proposition……..23 iii) Defining the Supply Chain Ecosystem for Actionable Intelligence…………….24 iv) Key Takeaways for Indian Companies and Developing a Strategy Roadmap ...26 v) India Nuclear Energy Buyer’s Guide……………………………………...…….28 6) Consultants Profile……………………………………...……………………………….31
  • 3. 3 A Thought Leadership Document and its specific Objectives A Business Opportunity for Indian firms from the Global Growth in the Wind Energy/ Shale Gas / Nuclear sector is a Thought Leadership Document prepared by SGMP Thought Leadership and Advisory OPC Private Limited. Globally there is a surge in the capacity installations of Wind Energy/ Shale Gas / Nuclear sector. Also the capacity installation growth is directly correlated to the demand growth for materials that go into it. Hence materials right from customized Fabricated Parts to Castings to Wires, everything will have Exponential Growth Curve in the usage. Apart from opportunities for Material supplying organisations, there is also a vast scope for service oriented organization also. Apart from materials, there is growing demand for services related to these sectors(for e.g. for EPC Companies) We believe and advocate as a Thought Leader that Indian companies need to tap this Business Opportunity and should not miss the Bus. Also that this is a highly Profitable Proposition. Indian companies should highlight their Sales Proposition as World Class Quality at Competitive Pricing, and Guaranteed on Time Supply. But there are serious challenges that need to be addressed. Hence this document aims to highlight the Driving and Restraining Factors to this issue. Some global Examples and Success stories have been showcased like Nuclear Clusters in France and Finland. Also if there is a support from the Indian Corporate domain then this document is proposed to be presented to the Prime Minster Office (PMO) for Review and Action (preferably to be included under Make in India scheme). We also wish that the Indian corporation review this document in detail and also view this as a Call to Arms against competition.
  • 4. 4 Introduction and Proposition SGMP Thought Leadership and Advisory OPC Private Limited is an India focused Corporate or Business Advisory and Investments Company, involved in the mapping the Business Opportunities arising from the Nation’s Economic, Business and Industrial scenario, working with Conglomerates/ Organisations and their senior management throughout the value chain of enterprises, ranging from OEMs, Component Manufacturers, Private Equity / Venture Capital firms, High Networth Individuals (HNIs), Industry Associations etc. It believes in the delivering high quality services to Indian Corporates based on its Thought Leadership in selected areas from time to time. Our offerings comprise: Sector specific Thought Leadership Research Strategic Roadmaps for Market & Products Policy Advisory Due diligence for JV Partnerships and Transfer of Technology (ToTs) agreements Sector related Investment Advisory (buy and sell side) Sector Insights and Compliance Market Assessment, Mapping and Evolution insights Our services are proposed to be extended to sectors across Business spectrum including: Aerospace, Defence & Security Business & Financial Services Digital Transformation Education Energy (Nuclear, Thermal, Renewable, Hydro) & Environment Industrial Automation & Process Control Manufacturing Leadership Manufacturing & Process Consulting Measurement & Instrumentation Metals & Minerals Mobility: Automotive & Transportation
  • 5. 5 Public Sector & Government Tech Vision Transformational Health Visionary Science (Chemicals, Materials & Food, PPE) Agriculture and allied activities Out services are to be delivered with inputs from sector specialist teams that includes Ex-Senior Government officials, Industry leaders , Defence Personnel , Ex-Police Personnel with extensive experience in the Indian sector and international markets.
  • 7. 7 Synopsis of the Recommended Strategy Roadmap As mentioned the objective of the Thought Leadership Document is to drive amongst the Indian Corporates, on the need to go after global Wind Energy sector in a proper manner. In order to give a boost to the Indian companies, there is a need to get some firm Enquiries that can be converted to profitable orders. Hence a focused Marketing Initiative has to be taken, as a first step forward it is recommended that India Wind Energy Buyer’s Guide to be published and circulated so that awareness is created about the presence and interest of Indian suppliers on the global forum. It is well known that India has the complete Supply Chain Ecosystem to cater to the demand of the global sector but it is felt that this fact is not defined properly. Globally the Supply Chain Ecosystem is properly defined and presented by National and Sub-National Industry Associations in form of a Buyer’s Guide. Some few successful initiatives have been highlighted below: 1. Syndicat Des Energies Renouvelables (A France based National Industry Association also called as French Renewable Energy Association) 2. Aquitaine Wind Industry Cluster (A France based Sub-National Industry Association) 3. NOF Energy (A UK based National Industry Association) 4. Aberdeen Renewable Energy Group (A UK based Sub-National Industry Association) www.aberdeenrenewables.com Preparation of the Strategy Roadmap for the Industry level is very Complex and Resource intensive. Also it will require the support of the Indian industry. In broad terms it is recommended that an Ecosystem be formed with cooperation of interested parties (Indian Corporates). On a individual corporate level, it recommended that a core team (with definite authority) be formed to review the Global Data and Trends. Based the data, Actionable Intelligence be produced and based on which a strategy Roadmap by combining tools like SWOT Analysis, Porter's Five Forces and PESTLE Analysis. SGMP Thought Leadership and Advisory OPC Private Limited also proposes to Herein proposes to develop a customized Business Strategy Roadmap for interested parties in an Advisory Role.
  • 8. 8 Using Global Growth Forecasts and Trends as a Compelling Proposition Wind Energy Growth: The global market for wind turbine should reach $71.2 billion by 2022, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.7% from 2017 to 2022. North America market for wind turbine should reach $15.3 billion by 2022, growing at a CAGR of 7.8% from 2017 to 2022. Asia-Pacific market for wind turbine should reach $26.1 billion by 2022, growing at a CAGR of 5.9% from 2017 to 2022. The Challenge for the Indian companies is that how to capture the projected Growth rate of the wind energy sector as their business revenues or on to their balance Sheets. What are specific products or services that will see higher growth rate? What are the products or services that align with the current portfolio or core competencies? What are the Certifications / Compliances or other investments required to be able to offer to the global sector? How much serious is Threat from the Restraining Factors such as Competition and National Industry Competitive Image? The Wind Energy Sector is not a homogenous lot and has classification which is a diverse lot. Different nations or regions have different segments as their priorities. The Chart below illustrates the Classification for Wind Energy Turbines (Only Onshore classification has been shown for better illustration). Wind Energy Turbines Offshore Onshore Geared DDPMG Small Medium Large Gearless DDSG Small Medium Large DDPMG Small Medium Large I. DFIG stands for Doubly Fed Induction Generators II. DDSG stands for Direct Drive Doubly Fed Synchronous Generators III. DDPMG stands for Direct Drive Permanent-Magnet-Generators
  • 9. 9 The Chart below highlights materials used in Construction of Wind Energy Turbines (by main components). The Classification and Data Chart indicate how complex it is to determine the product portfolio for Wind Energy Turbines/ Sector. Wind Energy Turbines Gear Steel Lubricants Hydraulic system Hydraulic Oil, Alloyed Steel Rotor blades Glass Fibre, Carbon Fibre , Polyester Resin, Epoxy Resin, Aluminum Tower Low Alloyed Steel, Concrete Foundation Low Alloyed Steel, Concrete Nacelle Aluminum Epoxy Resin, Glass Fibre Grid Connection Copper, Plastics Generator Steel, Copper, Cast Iron, Cr-Steel, Aluminum Rare Earth Elements Drive Train Cast iron, Cr-Steel Rubber Rotor Hub Cast Iron, Cr-Steel Strategic Metals Mineral Materials Bulk Metals Plastics Material demand data for Wind Energy Turbines Location Type Rated power (MW) Material amounts (tonnes) Concrete Bulk metals Plastics Copper Permanent Magnets Onshore DDPMG 1.5 805.0 230.6 46.3 4.1 0.9 DDSG 2.3 1,880.0 286.6 44.7 10.6 0.0 DFIG 3.0 1,930.5 418.7 52.3 7.0 0.0 Offshore DDPMG 5 528.0 1,450.1 108.8 12.2 2.8 DDSG 7 739.2 2,108.5 112.2 39.5 0.0 DFIG 12 0.0 1,441.2 112.5 10.7 0.0 I. DFIG stands for Doubly Fed Induction Generators II. DDSG stands for Direct Drive Doubly Fed Synchronous Generators III. DDPMG stands for Direct Drive Permanent-Magnet-Generators
  • 10. 10 Defining a Supply Chain Ecosystem The previous section provided a lot of data and trends, but Indian companies would face challenges as to how to use the disparate data into Actionable Intelligence, so that proper planning can be done and suitable Strategy Roadmap can be evolved. The Supply Chain Ecosystem has been defined in following Broad Categories and Sub-Categories: 1) Roadway Work – Special Transport 2) Wind Turbine Assembly i. Onshore ii. Domestic iii. Offshore 3) MANUFACTURE OF COMPONENTS i) Foundry pieces ii) Towers and bases iii) Nacelles iv) Blades v) Yaw drive systems vi) Electrical components vii) Mechanical Pieces viii) Brakes 4) Site Preparation 5) Assembly 6) Grid Connection 7) Commissioning 8) Operation And Maintenance Indian companies need to identify what are the products or services that align with the current portfolio or core competencies and accordingly prepare their Strategy.
  • 11. 11 Key Takeaways for Indian Companies and Developing a Strategy Roadmap The Global Growth Forecast and Trends indicate that the sector is a Compelling Proposition and there is a need to develop a Growth oriented and Sustainable (Profitable) business. I. It is recommended that Indian companies create /develop an Autonomous / Highly Independent Team to cater to the sector from their existing set up. The Team In-charge to be of the level of Director. II. Tools such as SWOT Analysis, Porter's Five Forces and PESTLE Analysis are to be used to understand its competitiveness, challenges and develop Strategy Roadmap. III. The need for Transfer of Technologies (ToTs), Joint Ventures (JVs) or Private Equity (PE) Funding to be properly highlighted. IV. Short listing of firms for ToTs, JVs or PE Funding to be done and Expression of interest (EoI) be sent to them. V. A draft of Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) be prepared for interested parties. It should include the vision of the Indian corporation that should be Compelling Proposition. VI. On the side of servicing clients / Customers, , A water tight Service Level Agreement (SLA) to be prepared such that it promises World Class Quality at Competitive Pricing, and Guaranteed on Time Supply. VII. Advisors/ Consultants are to be appointed to assist in the process. VIII. A definite Time Frame is set to execute this (Gantt Chart based)
  • 12. 12 India Wind Energy Buyer’s Guide A sample copy of India Wind Energy Buyer’s Guide is proposed here. Interested Indian companies are requested to fill in the details and mail it to us for compilation and further circulation. Broad Categories/ Group ROADWAY WORK–SPECIAL TRANSPORT WINDTURBINE ASSEMBLY MANUFACTURE OF COMPONENTS SITE PREPARATION ASSEMBLY GRID CONNECTION COMMISSIONING OPERATIONAND MAINTENANCE Company Names Company A 1 2 Company B 1 2 Company C 1 2 Company D 1 2 Company E 1 2 Company F 1 2 Company G 1 Company H 1 Key: 1 = Primary area of competence 2 = Secondary area of competence. SubCategory of Manufacture Of Components Foundry pieces Towersand bases Nacelles Blades Yawdrive systems Electrical components Mechanical Pieces Brakes Company Names Company B Company I Company J Company K Company L
  • 13. 13 Shale Gas Supply Chain Sector
  • 14. 14 Synopsis of the Recommended Strategy Roadmap Shale Gas production is relatively new sector and evolving across the globe. Apart from the US, no other nation has started mass production of shale gas. Herein we would focus upon certain segment like Steel, Rigs, Hydraulic Fracturing Equipment as well as shared infrastructure for Water Treatment, Waste Disposal and Gas Processing, in which India has some existent Competences. The idea is to fine-tune the Demand forecast so that the full potential of the competencies is realized. Herein from a Case Study of projected demand from UK Shale Gas sector the forecast for global demand and requirement is shown. The US Department of Energy (DOE) played an important role in the country’s shale gas success by collaborating with the industry and other technical institutes for research in shale gas technology in the 1970s. In 2010, China created a National Gas Shale Research Center to assist the development of the domestic shale industry. In India some steps have taken but the seriousness is missing. Given the challenges of acquisition of land or environmental damage, it is very unlikely that Shale gas production on the mass scale will take off in India. At present there seems no sort of strong advocacy in favour of developing domestic shale gas or even CBM. Indian companies like Reliance Industries and ONGC have invested in US Shale Gas assets instead of domestic ones. Hence the document is only discussing how Indian companies can encash on the development of Shale Gas worldwide as a Service and Material provider. Also as how It makes a Business Case for having either a full-fledged autonomous Business Unit (BU) or atleast a Strategy Roadmap to tap the potential.
  • 15. 15 Using Global Growth Forecasts and Trends as a Compelling Proposition Worldwide natural gas production is expected to increase from 342 billion cubic feet per day in 2015 to 554 Bcf/d by 2040, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The largest component of the growth is natural gas production from shale resources, which grows from 42 Bcf/d in 2015 to 168 Bcf/d by 2040, According to EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2016. Shale gas is expected to account for 30 percent of world natural gas production by the end of the forecast period. (Source: EIA) Country Shale Gas Production Billion Cubic Feet Per Day (BCF/d) 2015 Shale Gas Production Billion Cubic Feet Per Day (BCF/d) 2040 (projected) Percentage of Shale Gas in total Natural gas production (%) Worldwide 42 168 30 USA 37 79 70 China 0.5 22 40 Canada 5 7 30 Mexico 0 8 75 Algeria 0 8 33 Argentina 0 8 70 According to above figure, although currently only four countries, the United States, Canada, China, and Argentina, have commercial shale gas production, technological improvements over the forecast period are expected to encourage the development of shale resources in other countries, primarily in Mexico and
  • 16. 16 Algeria. Together, these six countries are projected to account for 70 percent of global shale production by 2040 (as shown in the table). The image below showcases the Shale Gas reserves globally in Trillion cubic feet (TCF). Herein from the above image it can be seen US and China have the largest reserves of Shale Gas. But the challenge is to be able to recover the gas, while US has put on ground the production of shale gas on mass scale by placing Regulations, Finance, Technology, Manpower in right place, China is yet to achive that. Herein it can be seen that in Europe, UK has comparatively less reserves than France, but it has placed regulatory laws favouring Shale gas, while France has not. But on the other hand Poland has put in regulations favoring investments in the sector making it more favourable. In the following a study dome for the UK Shale Gas sector has been taken as an example of the investments required for commissioning of the project and the category spends. This has also defined the Supply Chain mechanism.
  • 17. 17 Defining the Supply Chain Ecosystem for Actionable Intelligence The following the categories of Supply Chain for Shale Gas sector. The categories are ranked according to proportion of spend per drilling project. For Indian corporations to be able to project themselves as competitive sources of Services, Equipments, materials and Personnel, it is recommended that that India Shale Gas Project Buyers Guide be developed, preferably on the segments mentioned below. 1. Hydraulic fracturing equipment and personnel 2. Steel casing 3. Rig hire 4. Proppant 5. Waste water management 6. Drilling waste management 7. Ancillary equipment and services 8. Cementing Services 9. Waste transportation 10. Directional drilling service 11. Chemicals 12. Drilling fluids and fluids engineering 13. Water storage and transportation 14. Drill rig fuel Investments for Supply Chain in Shale Gas Projects According to a study was commissioned by the UK Onshore Operators Group (UKOOG) to identify any supply chain in UK for Shale Gas development, It identified that over a period of 16 years (2016–32) £33billion of spend could be Required To Bring Up To 4,000 Wells Into Production. The breakup of major part of mentioned £33billion of spends, that are the Key Opportunities and Requirements for Supply Chain Providers are mentioned in the Table below: Components of Spends GBP (£) Billion As a Percentage of Total Spend Hydraulic fracturing 20.5 62
  • 18. 18 Drilling & completions 8.2 25 Waste management 2.8 8 Storage and transportation 1.3 4 Other 0.5 1 The study also mentions shows that the shale industry will need to purchase 12,600 km of underground steel casing with a total spend of £2.3 billion. In addition, we will need to purchase some 50 landward rigs and some workover rigs at a total cost of £1.6 billion, 9 million tonnes of sand and will require some £1.2 billion of ancillary equipment and services. In Shale Gas terminology, a horizontal drill site called a Pad, generally six-acre used to extract gas from an underground area 1,000 acres in size. According to the UKOOG study to bring a single pad on-stream will require £333m, (comprising of approx 40 wells). Breakdown of spend categories for a single pad (10 vertical wells; 40 lateral wells) GBP (£) GBP (£) Hydraulic fracturing —total 205 Equipment 170.6 Proppant 2.2 Mobilisation/demobilisation 4.5 /7.4 Miscellaneous 20.3 Drilling & completions — total 82.6 Steel casing 23 Rig hire 21.7 Ancillary equipment and service 11.9 Cementing Services 8.2 Directional drilling service 7.5 Drilling fluids & fluids engineering 5.7 Drill rig fuel 4.6 Waste disposal — total 27.7 Water waste management 14.5 Drilling waste management 13.2 Storage & transportation — total 12.7 Waste transportation 7.5 Water storage and transportation 5.2 Other 5 The above Table gives an approximation of spend per category for a particular country for single site. Thus this data can can be extrapolated for other countries also using PESTLE analysis as Actionable Intelligence for data driven Decision Making.
  • 19. 19 Key Takeaways for Indian Companies and Developing a Strategy Roadmap According to EIA and reports of other Consultancy firms, the scope of Shale Gas extraction looks extremely challenging given the fact that it requires large tracts of land and consumes a lot of water. Thus Indian companies would have develop the competency in shale Gas Supply Chain exclusively for foreign markets only. In India, there has been the case of Guar Gum production and processing that has benefitted extremely from Shale gas development. But India companies need to move up the Value chain from providing material (for. e.g. Steel casings) to services to manpower. Countries like Algeria and Poland where some significant investments have been made in Shale Gas, India companies should try to tap into these opportunities. Since legislation has been passed in UK approving Hydraulic fracturing it is market, whereas France and Germany do allow for it. SGMP Thought Leadership and Advisory OPC Private Limited advocates the use PESTLE Analysis for that Indian corporations interested in developing. The Table illustrated below showcases how a country by country analysis can be done for Knowledge based Decision making process. Parameters Countries Australia Algeria Argentina Poland UK USA Social Risks Brand/reputation damage Backlash against US shale revolution Major accident/incident Preference for other energy forms Environmental Risks Greenhouse gas emissions Water shortages Pollution Industrialization Infrastructure degradation
  • 20. 20 Economic Risks Rise of LNG on global market Compliance costs Future market structure Moratorium/operational stoppage Tax structures Impact of partner decisions/ actions of others in industry Partner/JV/Outsourcing arrangements Geopolitical Risks Transit uncertainties Decisions on energy sources Political/economic instability International relations Technological Risks Poor well performance Lack of infrastructure Reserves uncertainty Reserves accessibility Equipment shortages Regulatory Risks Energy and climate change policies Government capacity Mineral rights
  • 22. 22 Synopsis of the Recommended Strategy Roadmap According to a World Nuclear Association presentation, 295 new Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are under construction or planned. The value of Nuclear Construction till 2030 is a staggering US$ 1,232 billion. The estimated value of International Procurement US$ 575 billion. (50 in OECD countries,118 in China,42 in Former Soviet Union,21 in India). In May 2017, Government of India (GoI) announced that it will build 10 heavy water reactors to boost its nuclear power capacity. In a Government Press Release it quoted “In a first of its kind project for India’s nuclear power sector the ten new units will come up in fleet mode as a fully homegrown initiative. It would be one of the flagship “Make in India” projects in this sector Another Power Ministry document cites that India has ambitious nuclear power expansion plans (almost 10x of current capacity) by the year 2032 by setting up nuclear reactors based on both indigenous technologies of PHWRs and FBRs and by the year 2032 by setting up nuclear reactors based on both indigenous technologies of PHWRs and FBRs and large size LWRs based on international cooperation. It is necessary that a larger base of Indian companies should be able to tap the opportunities in global nuclear sector. That there is a need to build upon existing nuclear supply chain capability in India through proper Mapping Process, enabling India based firms to compete in the manufacture of Engineering items (for e.g. large forgings). Hence herein also a focused Marketing Initiative has to be taken, as a first step forward it is recommended that India Nuclear Engineering Buyer’s Guide to be published and circulated so that awareness is created about the presence and interest of Indian suppliers on the global forum. Globally the Supply Chain Ecosystem is properly defined and presented by National and Sub-National Industry Associations in form of a Buyer’s Guide. Some few successful initiatives have been highlighted below: 1. FinNuclear (A Finland based National Industry Association to support Finnish nuclear industry) 2. GIIN (Groupe Intersyndical de l’Industrie Nucléaire-French Nuclear Suppliers Association is the association which has been representing and bringing together French companies operating in the nuclear industry 3. Pôle Nucléaire Bourgogne(Burgundy Nuclear Partnership) (A France based Sub-National Industry Association) 4. USNIC (United States Nuclear Infrastructure Council representing the “Who’s Who” of the nuclear supply chain community) On a individual corporate level, it recommended that a core team (with definite authority) be formed to review the Global Data and Trends. Based the data, Actionable Intelligence be produced and based on which a strategy Roadmap by combining tools like SWOT Analysis, Porter's Five Forces and PESTLE Analysis. SGMP Thought Leadership and Advisory OPC Private Limited also proposes to Herein proposes to develop a customized Business Strategy Roadmap for interested parties in an Advisory Role.
  • 23. 23 Using Global Growth Forecasts and Trends as a Compelling Proposition Nuclear Energy Growth: According to World Nuclear Association (WNA) the value of Nuclear Construction to 2030 , of Planned Build* US$ 1,232 billion. There is also an additional US$ 87 billion market for Decommissioning o North America Under construction: 5 Planned: 7 Total Value: $ 90 Billion o Latin America Under construction: 2 Planned: 1 Total Value: $ 14 Billion o Europe (EEA) Under construction: 4 Planned: 20 Total Value: $ 190 Billion o West Asia Under construction: 2 Planned: 16 Total Value: $ 92 Billion o Africa Under construction: 0 Planned: 4 Total Value: $ 22 Billion o o Former Soviet Union Under construction: 11 Planned: 31 Total Value: $ 183 Billion o South Asia Under construction: 7 Planned: 18 Total Value: $ 65 Billion o East Asia Under construction: 36 Planned: 125* Total Value: $ 545 Billion o o Southeast Asia Under construction: 0 Planned: 6 Total Value: $ 31 Billion Estimated Value of International Procurement US$ 575 billion North America market should reach $15.3 billion by 2022, growing at a CAGR of 7.8% from 2017 to 2022. *Reactors currently under construction in China, India, UAE, USA, etc. have an aggregate project value of approx. US$ 232 billion. The Challenge for the Indian companies is that how to capture the projected Growth rate of the wind energy sector as their business revenues or on to their balance Sheets. What are specific products or services that will see higher growth rate? What are the products or services that align with the current portfolio or core competencies? What are the Certifications / Compliances or other investments required to be able to offer to the global sector? How much serious is Threat from the Restraining Factors such as Competition and National Industry Competitive Image? The Nuclear Energy Sector is a very high technology sector and requires great degree of investments.
  • 24. 24 Defining the Supply Chain Ecosystem for Actionable Intelligence A typical procurement pyramid is shown below. The market opportunities associated with the development of the Nuclear Powe Plants can be split into: 1. Civil Works 2. Nuclear Steam Supply System 3. Mechanical Systems – nuclear and non-nuclear 4. Electrical Systems – nuclear and non-nuclear 5. Turbine Island 1. Civil Works: The three main civil packages are: i) Earthworks ii) Marine and Tunnelling Works iii) Main Civil Works 2. Nuclear Steam Supply System: it may require support services from the supply chain associated with: i) Transportation, lifting and mechanical installation of major equipment and pipework. ii) Supply, prefabrication and installation of small bore ancillary pipework around the reactor vessel / steam generator. Operators like NPCIL in India Reactor & Turbine Vendors, Major Civil, Mechanical & Electrical Contractors Smaller Companies with and without Nuclear Experience Tier 1 Contractors Tier 2,3,4 Contractors
  • 25. 25 iii) Provision of structural steel restraints and pipework supports. iv) Welding services. v) NDT services. 3. Mechanical Systems: Contact Manufacturers of this type of equipment and position themselves to provide equipment, subassemblies or support services associated with these contracts. There are several mechanical installation packages to be awarded such as: I. Balance of Nuclear Island Mechanical Equipment II. Balance of Plant Mechanical Equipment III. Nuclear HVAC Plant Installation IV. Non Nuclear HVAC Plant Installation V. Waste Treatment Packages 4. Electrical Systems: The electrical contracts will be split into at least five major packages. These include: I. Construction Electrical Supplies II. IEG Scope (general electrical erection) III. Small Power and Lighting IV. Fire and Hydrogen Detection V. IT and Communications Infrastructure VI. Ancillary Buildings’ Works 5. Turbine Island: there exists a market for packages such as: I. Main Steam and Feed Water Pipework Systems II. Turbine Auxiliary Pipework III. Moisture Separator Reheater and Deaerator Vessels IV. Feed Heaters V. Assorted Vessels and Tanks
  • 26. 26 Key Takeaways for Indian Companies and Developing a Strategy Roadmap The Case Study discussed below points out to a Business Case for Indian on National as well some sub- national level for Nuclear Clusters that can leverage the technical and financial competencies of members. Pôle Nucléaire Bourgogne (Burgundy Nuclear Partnership) as a symbol of leveraging of core competency on sub-national/ industry segment level France is a leader in nuclear power generation and also technology. The region of Burgundy in France, had long been associated with metallurgy owing to the presence of important coal and iron ore reserves. Because of its expertise in heavy forging, Burgundy benefited from the French nuclear industry development as most heavy components installed in the 58 French PWR have been produced here. In 2005 French Government initiated a cluster policy aimed at structuring French industries & boosting R&D activities. A ‘nuclear cluster’ was proposed by key Burgundy nuclear players (EDF, Areva, Vallourec, CEA & local university & engineering schools) and was approved by the Government. By 2011 PNB has grown to almost 140 members and Pôle Nucléaire Bourgogne (Burgundy Nuclear Partnership) was thus formed. Now this competency is being leverage by the French government and companies. The association also o Co-ordinates R&D projects. e.g. ‘Thermide’ a € 5.99m project modelling of forming and heat processes for metal parts which involves seven PNB companies including Areva, Arcelor Mittal & CEA and ‘Tocata’ €2.18m project to develop a new optical NDT technique and involves five PNB members and eight other partners. o Undertakes outreach. e.g. PNB booths in the‘Nuclear Village’ at Industry fair in Lyon and French Energy Industry’ at Powergen in Milan. o Provides technical training courses. e.g. on RCC-M & ASME nuclear standards and Executive education. As a Case Study for India • India can also develop such a cluster with the association of companies like BHEL, L&T, JSW, Bharat Forge etc in places where there is a major presence of metallurgical industry such as Rajkot, Jalandhar, Coimbatore or Jamshedpur. • Specific India centric R&D projects can be initiated with corporate and government pooling in resources. • Projection of India’s nuclear metallurgy competence can be showcased on various international forms on joint basis. • Technical training courses. e.g. on ASME nuclear standards can be made accessible to Tier3, Tier4
  • 27. 27 The comparative analysis of the existent nuclear clusters like Pôle Nucléaire Bourgogne (France) FinNuclear of Finland with that of a proposed Indian nuclear cluster has been showcased below. It is also a Call for Action for formation of cluster on below proposed points. Pôle Nucléaire Bourgogne (France) FinNuclear Proposed India Cluster structure Cluster structure Mature cluster with more than 140 members and experienced cluster co- ordination body Emergent cluster with more than100 members and small coordination team No cluster structure at present Financing Cluster has moderate access to investment capital Cluster has moderate access to investment capital The industry , as a cluster has not yet sought to access investment capital Cluster typology and governance Strong governance and coordination of cluster activities to meet recognized objectives Strong governance and coordination of cluster activities to meet recognized objectives No mechanism for cluster governance or co-ordination Diversity of services Significant R&D programme (€35m) and international outreach and collaboration International outreach and collaboration Full range of services offered but no formal co-ordination Output of services Cluster companies have played an important part in French build programme with particular expertise in large components Some cluster companies have been involved in recent new build in Finland Significant track-record of delivering nuclear products and services to new-build in India. Companies like L&T, BHEL, HCC, Kirloskar are mentionable. Internationalisation Largely French focus but with international outlook Almost exclusively focused on new build in Finland International focus lacking but with significant India business Achievements and performance Created strong regional identity in the nuclear game with significant success stories in the nuclear supply chain Developing regional and national identity with the capability of delivering success stories and growth International recognition of capability but does not derive this from cluster
  • 28. 28 India Nuclear Energy Buyer’s Guide SGMP Thought Leadership and Advisory OPC Private Limited proposes to publish Buyers Guide titled The Indian Nuclear Engineering Supplier Base. The core objective behind this initiative is to highlight the Indian companies (Capabilities and Competencies) in the most appropriate manner, i.e. as being a preferential choice as vendors for upcoming domestic or international nuclear new build projects. The publication is also proposed to acts as summary for national supply chain capability and capacity. The fact-based evidence is intended to inform both government and Industry associations of strategies needed in the development of the supply chain fraternity, so that firms can capitalize on business growth opportunities through the development of the India nuclear new build supply chain. Group Net Maintenance, operation & decommissioning works, Civils Heavy Components Group Company Company Name 1 Company Name 2 Company Name 3 Company Name 4 Company Name 5 Company Name 6 Company Name 7 Design 1 2 Consulting 1 2 2 Engineering 1 2 Management (project & quality) 2 2 Manufacturing 2 1 Materials technology & supply 2 1 Components 2 1 Equipment & systems Site activities Site management Civil works, construction Installation 1 Inspection 1 Maintenance 1 Other Key: 1 = Primary area of competence, 2 = Secondary area of competence. Shown for illustration purposes only. Contd…
  • 29. 29 Group Other components IT Engineering and Design services Other supporting functions Company Company Name 8 Company Name 9 Company Name 10 Company Name 11 Company Name 12 Design Consulting Engineering Management (project & quality) Manufacturing Materials technology & supply Components Equipment & systems Site activities Site management Civil works, construction Installation Inspection Maintenance Other Group Non destructive testing and certification R&D Mechanical sub- contracting Finance Education Company Company Name 13 Company Name 14 Company Name 15 Company Name 16 Company Name 17 Company Name 18 Design Consulting Engineering Management (project & quality) Manufacturing Materials technology & supply Components Equipment & systems Site activities Site management Civil works, construction
  • 31. 31 He has worked extensively with the leading Corporates of India, advising them on matters pertaining to Corporate Strategy and New Business development. He is currently associated with a lot of US and Canada based organizations helping them effectively map the Indian markets across diverse sectors ranging from Capitals Goods to Defense Sector to Financial Services. He works with clients often to help clients crystallise their needs and prepare a scope for the front end planning and engineering which is critical for the success of any project. Services are then tailored to suit the client’s needs. Siddhartha Guha Director and Founder CEO, SGMP Thought Leadership and Advisory OPC Private Limited, Mumbai, India
  • 32. 32 To know more about the Thought Leadership document or customized Concept Note, please contact: Siddhartha Guha Director and Founder CEO, SGMP Thought Leadership and Advisory OPC Private Limited, Mumbai, India Skype: siddharthaguha1 Email: siddharthaguha1@rediffmail.com , siddharthaguha1@gmail.com Handphone: +91-9819452045 Information in this publication is intended to provide only a general outline of the subjects covered. It should neither be regarded as comprehensive nor sufficient for making decisions, nor should it be used in place of professional advice. SGMP Thought Leadership Advisory OPC Private Limited accepts no responsibility for any loss arising from any action taken or not taken by anyone using this material.