Circular economy

1. LISBOA | TEATRO THALIA
28 NOVEMBRO 2017
Cofinanciadopor / Confinancedby
Tendências e Desafios no Horizonte 2O3O

2. Circular Economy: Concept & Trends
Alexandre LEMILLE
@AlexLemille

3. 1. Economic Strategies
2. Concept & Principles
3. The Economic Potential
4. Jobs, Activities and the Social Dimension
The Circular Economy: Concept & Trends
Content

4. Economic Strategies

5. DISPOSE
Wrongly designed system
TAKE MAKE
WASTE
ENERGY
LABOUR
$
WASTE
ENERGY
LABOUR
$
WASTE
Res.
ENERGY
$
Economic Strategies

6. Functions of throughput
Producer
Responsibility
Transfer &
Externalities
Economic Strategies
$
Purchaser
$
Ownership
Traffic congestion | Air Pollution | Health Impact | Noise | Death/Injuries | Multiple Waste | etc…
E X T E R N A L I T I E S ?
Authority
$
$$
Taxpayer

7. Economic Strategies
80% thrown while huge needs

8. Concept & Principles

9. A Circular Economy
Preserve stock quality & manage flows
GDP (flow)
Source:
Giarini
&
Stahel,
1989
!
Level is ignored
Outflow is ignored
!
How we measure
our economy today
How it should be
measured!
Welfare / Wealth / Knowledge
(stock)

10. A Circular Economy
Stock is everywhere

11. A Circular Economy
A resource-efficient economy
Reuse of vast amount of material
=
Foundation of Economic Growth
Restorative by design & intention
Using renewable energy
Away from chemicals
Eradicating waste
Rebuilding natural capital

12. Biosphere
USERS
Limited
Unlimited
Leased Accessed
Shared
 No More Waste
 Away from Recycling
 Labour is Valued
Durables: Technical Nutrients
Design-to-fit: optimised systems
Returned

13. Biosphere
CONSUMERS
 Away from hazardous chemicals
 Nutrients are Beneficial
 Rebuilding natural capital
Consumables: Biological Nutrients
Safely back into the biosphere

14. Source:
The
Ellen
MacArthur
Foundation/WRAP/WEF
By 2030:
+3M EU Jobs
-520,000 Unempl.
By 2050:
$4.5tn WWD
Depending on
countries:
From -40% to
-70% less CO2
Rebuilding of
Capital:
In Priority: Natural

15. Decoupling is the Imperative
A Circular Economy
Source:
The
UN
Environment,
Accenture
C.E. Business Models
+
New capabilities
+
New technologies
Leading to new value chains:
 Less resource supply risks
 More customer value creation
 More attractive cost structures

16. A Circular Economy
New Business Models
Source:
Sitra

17. A Circular Economy
6 Business Strategies

18. A Circular Economy
Recycling is only the last resort
Reducing materials to mashed-up fragments
Down-cycling
Secondary material stream for a linear economy
Does not value materials
Does not drive material enhancement
Uses too much energy
A good alternative solution today
Not a solution that copes with waste volumes

19. Source:
Sitra
A Circular Economy
Advances across the Globe

20. The Economic Potential

21. Source:
The
Ellen
MacArthur
Foundation
Huge material savings (€630bn/y (E.U.))
Economic Potential of Circularity

22. Market Trends
Economic Potential of Circularity

23. Towards Optimization of Value
Economic Potential of Circularity

24. Benefits according to “Growth Within”
Economic Potential of Circularity
Source:
Growth
Within,
SystemIQ
EU-27, Indexed (2012 = 100)
Current
development
scenario
Circular scenario

25. Economic Potential of Circularity
Source:
The
EMF,
SystemIQ
Next Wave of Investment Themes
Investments up to 20251
Cross-cutting
opportunity

26. Opportunities Identified
Source:
McKinsey,
Gaia
Consulting
The Case of Finland

27. The Case of Finland

28. Examples: Policy Measures
The Case of Finland

29. Takeaways & Expectations
Global Unique Roadmap
Government Vision: World Leader in Circular Economy
Added Value Potential: 3bn Euros for the Economy
Additional Jobs: 75,000 (Club of Rome)
Source:
Sitra
The Case of Finland

30. Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension

31. Source:
Green
Alliance,
Sitra
Product Sold for Reuse & Remanufacture
Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension

32. Remanufacture
Recycle
Portugal Portugal or RoW
Maintenance
ReMarketing
RePurpose
Repair
ReUse
ReDistribute
Disassembly
ɛ
CO2
National job creation
Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension
Valued Extracted Tax

33. Source:
Club
of
Rome
Decoupling
Strategies:
Renewable Case Energy-efficiency Material-
efficiency
All Three
Combined
Emission
Reduction
-50%
Around -30%
+ -3% to -10%
+ + -66% to -69%
Additional Jobs
+15,000 (SW+FL);
+50,000 (NL);
+100,000 (FR+SP)
+
+15,000 (FL);
+20,000 (SW);
+100,000 (NL);
+200,000 (FR+SP
+
)
+50,000 (SW+FL);
+100,000 (NL);
+200,000 (SP);
+300,000 (FR);
+
+75,000 (FL);
+100,000 (SW);
+200,000 (NL);
+400,000 (SP);
+500,000 (FR);
Trade Balance
Effects
+0.3% to +0.7%
of GDP
0% to +0.4%
of GDP
+1% to +2%
of GDP
+1.5% to +3%
of GDP
Winners: jobs & climate
Up to 70%
Less CO2
Emissions
Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension

34. Cascades
Farming,
Collection
Biogas
Maintain/Prolong
Reuse /redistribute
Refurbish/remanufacture
Recycle
Source:
A.
Lemille,
adapted
from
the
“Butterfly
Diagram”
of
the
Ellen
MacArthur
Foundation
BIOSPHERE TECHNOSPHERE
Extraction of
Biochemical Feedstock
HUMANSPHERE
Biosphere
Regeneration
Biochemical
Feedstock
Share
Stock & Flows of Energies & Resources
Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension

35. Hand-repaired, Sweden
Prolonging life via repairs
VAT drop: from 25% to 12%
Humans assisting, Germany
Robots could not keep up with
Mercedes S-Class requires too
many customisations
Manpower is enabled
Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension

36. OCV: Optimising Circular Value
Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension
Measuring our 10 Priority Oucomes:

37. OBRIGADO | THANK YOU
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