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 PLATON TINIOS           &   ANTIGONE LYBERAKI
 University of Piraeus       Panteion University
 GREECE                      GREECE




GENDER GAPS AND LIFETIME INEQUALITY:


AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
OF MICRO-DATA FROM
EUROPE
                                          IFA Conference,
                                          Prague May 2012
2



A new –lifetime - perspective on an old issue
• Attempt to examine empirical implications of a novel and innovative micro
  dataset on an old issue of importance for gender balance
• The old issue: ‘the’ Gender gap
  ▫ Systematic differences in life chances between men & women
  ▫ Observed in many dimensions, across countries, domains etc.
• The new data: SHARELIFE
  ▫ SHARE {w1 (2004) w2 (2007)} – European interdisciplinary
    panel of people 50+ (comparable to HRS in US, ELSA in UK))
  ▫ SHARELIFE (2009) – Retrospective lifetime questions for SHARE sample:
        Childhood, education, health, family, work, etc for entire life.
• The new perspective
  ▫ How are gender gaps generated and how do they solidify in older
    ages?
      Cross-country, cross-cohort, various dimensions
      Key (ultimate) motivation: Palliative role of welfare states??
  ▫ A tour d’ horizon - attempt to quantify effects of different
     dimensions
      Clarify issues – See the ‘lie of the land’
3




Outline: Halfway there…
 1. Gender gaps and the life time perspective
  ▫ Conceptual discussion.
 2. Derive alternative measures of the gender gap
    appropriate to older populations aged 50+
 3. Vector of starting deprivation into scalar index
    of starting position
 4. Examine socioeconomic mobility patterns
 5. Attempt to disaggregate gender gap by a means
    of a reduced form equation
4



What is the gender gap?
• Gender gap is an achievement gap
  ▫ women are underpaid, undervalued and overworked.
  ▫ Gender inequities in own income – economic independence deficit
  ▫ Why doesn’t wage gap lead to rise in demand?
• In general gender gaps are shrinking over time
• What does it depend on?
  ▫ Observables (education etc) / discrimination
  ▫ Oaxaca (1973) method attempts to decompose
      But: occupational segregation complicates
      Bergmann (1974) overcrowding depresses wages
• In career terms – snowball effect of low participation, few hours,
  lower wages
  ▫ Evidence of polarisation among women
  ▫ Cumulative earning gap (Luxembourg Income Study)
  ▫ Could solidify further once retire from the labour market
• SHARELIFE should provide data to examine issues as well as a
  new perspective:.
  ▫ E.g. interdisciplinary insights + effect of Welfare State.
5




Conceptual issues
 • GENDER GAPS:
   ▫ Multidimensional. Prominence to remuneration
   ▫ Here: Cumulative (over life) or end-state.
 • Research strategy: DETERMINANTS
   ▫ Split into different stages of life:
      Initial, education, work/family, pension, health,
      Social protection as a palliative influence through the life course
         ‘Worlds of welfare capitalism’ -- chart the heyday of the Welfare Staete
 • 1st approach: Examine total effect on end- result
   ▫ OLS of variables on end state Gender gap.
         ≅ Reduced form.
         Gives overview of total significance, though not causal (yet)
   ▫ Could examine each stage in turn as stages cumulate
     over the life course, (plus partial attempts at amelioration)
      Approach adopted in FRB (initial and work/family).
         Axel Börsch-Supan et al 2011. Ongoing work.
         E.g. early health⇒ Education⇒ Work chances⇒ End-state
6



How to define an over-50 Gender gap?
• Gender gap usually identified as difference in wages and/or
  earnings.
  ▫ End-state to be examined relatively well-defined
• In a sample of people 50+, situation is more nuanced:
  ▫ Some have never worked
     Depending on conditions some decades ago.
  ▫ Earnings exist for those who work.
  ▫ Pensions cumulate past differences and correct
     depending on welfare state structure and parameters of the
      preceding periods
  ▫ Selection between earnings/pensions endogenous
        Depends on personal preferences and welfare state parameters.
         (retirement ages)
• In household level micro-data:
  ▫ Savings also cumulate – income from property, rents, business
     Categories of income accrue to household. (some social assistance)
        Equivalence scales force gender equality by definition!
7



Two alternative courses of action
I.       Define hybrid ‘Personal income’
     ▫ Personal Income= Personal Income from Pensions +
       Personal Income from Employment + Equivalent income
       from other household level income sources
        Not so much an ‘earnings gap’ but a ‘disposition of resources
         gap’
     ▫ Wider than gender gap -- cumulative effect over time
     ▫ In addition to earnings encompasses other disadvantages
     ▫ Narrower than gender gap --intra-household sharing
        Rich housewives still rich, if household is rich
II. Decompose into (a) participation gap (b)
    retirement gap (c) earnings gap for those working
    (d) pensions gap for pensioners/ retired.
     ▫       Richer diagnosis – less easy to interpret.
              Two discrete choices – two alternative earnings
               determinations
     ▫       More complex as a description
8




Overview of empirical work presented
1.       Examination of end-state gaps
     •     Under the two alternative definitions
2.       Social Mobility analysis
     ▫ Derivation of initial state ‘deprivation index’
     ▫ From initial conditions to end-conditions.
3.       Reduced form OLS equation explaining end-gap***
     ▫   (Equivalent to Oaxaca-type study)
     ▫ Groups of variables
          ‘Pure gender’ effect – dummy
          Effect of initial conditions
          Education, work/family, pension
     ▫ Quantify effect of different groups using predicted values for
       country groups and cohorts
          For average values
          For the poorest 20%
9



1: Crude gender gaps in 2007/9:
Personal income, 50+ population
                             Gender Gap based on Mean Personal Income
                             Gender Gap based on Median Personal Income
                                                 48             50
              50                                                     46
                                  42                       43
                                            39        41
                             39
                                                                45   46
              40                       33
                                  38             37        39
              30             33        33   34        35                  27
                        23
                   17                                                          18
              20
                        19
                   16
              10                                                          21   13

              0
                   SE   DK   NL   DE   BE   FR   CH   AT   IT   ES   GR   PL   CZ


Gap= 1- (Average for women/ Average for men)
   Highest in South; smaller in North/Transition
   Median gap – indication significant difference in distribution by gender
   Gender gap widest in group 65-80. 80+ falls (influence of widows’
   pensions)
10


          Personal Income distribution by gender:
          Two extremes GR, SE)
                                Greece                                                 Greece
                                     male                                                female
          30




                                                                                                                                       Gini
                                                                                                                                      M=0.437
Percent



          20




                                                                                                                                      F=0.574
          10
           0




                0       5000         10000   15000             20000   0        5000      10000       15000   20000
                                                personal income
          Graphs by male or female




                                                               High prevalence of zero incomes -- non-declaration?
                                                               Non-working spouse in employee or pensioner household?
                                                                                                  Sweden                                   Sweden
                                                                                                      male                                  female
                                                                           15




                  Gini
                                                                           10
                                                     Percent




                M=0.330
                                                                            5




                F=0.342
                                                                            0




                                                                                 0       10000        20000   30000   40000   0    10000     20000   30000   40000
                                                                                                                 personal income
                                                                           Graphs by male or female
11


 Detailed participation and separate
 earnings and pension gaps
                                                                                           Earnings and pensions gap
     Participation gap                                                                     (for those with +ve values)

      Gender Participation Gap (M-W) to Personal Income sources (in                                   Labour income              Pension income
      percentage points)
      Gender Earnings Gap (among those receiving either income source)                                Pension or labour income


                                             43,1                                         50
45                      40,7
                                                       38,8
40               34,8                 35,0                           34,6                 40
                                                              32,9
35                                              30,2
30                                                                          27,3
                               24,2                           34,4                        30
     21,8 21,4                                                                     22,5
25
                                                                     19,4
20                             16,4                    16,8                               20
                                                13,8
15
                 9,9 9,5
10                                    6,7 7,8                               5,6
                                                                                          10
5     1,2 1,2
0                                                                                          0
      SE DK NL DE BE FR CH AT IT                              ES GR PL CZ                      SE DK NL DE BE FR CH AT IT            ES GR PL CZ
12



 Comparison of more familiar concepts:
 earnings and pension gaps
• Define for two groups                 Gender Income Gap
                                                                        Labour income: Persons 50-64
  relatively close in age.            by income source among
                                     those receiving each source
   ▫ Earnings 50-64                                                     Pension income: Persons 65-80

   ▫ Pensions 65-80                                                     Pension and labour income: Persons 50+

• Could also be seen as ‘a      60
  look into the future of the
  pension gap’.                 50
• No clear pattern
   ▫ Earnings>Pensions          40

      DK, BE,CH,AT,CZ, ES
                                30
   ▫ Pensions> Earnings
      FR,IT,GR, PL             20
   ▫ Almost the same
      SE,DE                    10
• Need to understand
  differences                    0
                                     SE    DK   NL    DE    BE     FR    CH    AT    IT    ES    GR     PL   CZ
13




2. Mobility analysis
• Childhood deprivation index
  ▫ Described in Lyberaki, Tinios, Georgiadis 2011
       Related to end-state persistent poverty + soc. protection
     Index of relative deprivation by country at age 10.
       Weight more deprivation of those qualities more widely enjoyed
     Constructed by 11 indicators (housing, family indicators)
• Gives an idea of starting point
  ▫ As chiefly family deprivation - gender balanced.
  ▫ Cohort sensitive; though
  ▫ However, the two sexes have different chances to alter
    personal position
• Chart personal changes in rank
  ▫ Change of quintile in distribution
  ▫ Spearman rank order coefficients
14




             Upward mobility Remained stable Downward mobility            Mobility – Change in
100                                                                       quintile ranks
      25,0               21,2               22,6                          Considerable change over time
              36,0                                            31,3 36,9
                                 42,1                43,2
75
                                                                          From starting point of gender
                                                                          equality (household status
50                                                                        same for brother & sister)
                                                                          To end point
25 51,3                  53,5               53,1              46,3 41,4   Males move up
              38,6               32,6                32,3                 Females down
 0
       M       F          M       F          M        F        M    F     Biggest difference in South

             Nordics          Continental          Southern    Eastern
                                                                          Spearman rank-order
                                                                          coefficient (on percentiles)
                                                                          Biggest difference in Continent
                                                                          Smallest in North
15




3. Description of Reduced form OLS
equation
• Dependent: Log (Personal income in 2007/9)
• ‘Pure gender effect’ =        Gender dummy
• ‘Indirect gender effect’ = through gender differences in other
  determinants of income
     ▫ (Assuming as 1st approx. coefficients same for men and women).
1.  Initial effects – Cohort, Index, + GNP pc at 1960.
2.  Education – years of schooling, higher dummy
3.  Family status – Never married, widowed, divorced, married,
    Number of children
4. Work – years, years squared
5. Health – bad health during life, at end
6. Pensions - pensioner, years since pension
7. Country group dummies. Log of GDP pc in 1970
Approach similar to Oaxaca decomposition - proceed step by step
Y=Log(Personal income)                     Pooled                                                            16
             Variables                 Coef.             Std. Err.

Age: 50-64 years                     0,4631**                        0,0430

Age: 65-79 years                         
Age: 80 years                        0,1807**                        0,0374

Female                              -0,4049**                        0,0355



                                                                              Pooled equation
Childhood non deprivation index:
0 to 1 (no deprivation)             0,6276**                         0,1243

Years in education                  0,0432**                         0,0048

Dummy: Higher Education             0,4067**                         0,0431
                                                                              Pooled equation – presumes
Single                                0,0743
Married                                  
                                                                     0,0652
                                                                              independent variables
Divorced                              0,0444                         0,0639
                                                                              operate in the same way
Widowed                             0,5488**                         0,0375
                                                                              for men and women.
Number of Children                   0,0207*                         0,0109   Use as first approximation
Years in employment                 0,0485**                         0,0041
                                                                              Reasonable fit
Squared term: Years in employment   -0,0005**                        0,0001   Intuitive results
Dummy: Pensioner                     1,5025**                        0,0497
                                                                              “pure gender effect” –
Years in retirement                 -0,0090**
Ever had physical injury to
                                                                     0,0013
                                                                              implies a gap of 33% if all
disability                           -0,0850*                        0,0454
                                                                              else is equal.
Less than good health               -0,1630**                        0,0347   Employment crucial.
Country-specific
Nordic                                   
                                                                              All stages appear to have to
Continental                         -0,0936**                        0,0343
                                                                              ‘expected’ effect
Southern                            -0,2374**                        0,0610   Country dummies included in
Transition                            -0,1134                        0,1496   lieu of social protection. Effect
Log of GDP per capita 1970           0,8777**                        0,0729
                                                                              not easy to interpret.
Constant term                        -1,6337*                        0,7340

# Observations                                  23113
R2                                              0.323
Y=Log(Personal income)             Males                 Females                                              17
                                            Std.
         Variables              Coef.       Err.       Coef.       Std. Err.
Age: 50-64 years              0,2686**      0,0513   0,4965**        0,0630
Age: 80 years                  0,0898       0,0513   0,2089**        0,0491
Childhood deprivation
index: 0 to 1                 0,9018**      0,1647   0,3925**        0,1772
                                                                               OLS equation by
Years in education            0,0327**      0,0067   0,0513**        0,0065
                                                                               gender
Dummy: Higher Education        0,3104**     0,0565   0,4787**        0,0627
Single                        -0,2142**     0,0915   0,2643**        0,0931    By gender– presumes variables
Married                                                                      operate differently for
Divorced                      -0,4089**     0,1078   0,3102**        0,0762    men and women.
Widowed                        0,1414**     0,0548   0,5698**        0,0450
                                                                               Obviously so.
Number of Children              0,0182      0,0148    0,0210         0,0147
Years in employment            0,0204**     0,0081   0,0452**        0,0052    Higher explanatory power for
                                                                               women.
Squared employment              -0,0001     0,0001   -0,0004**       0,0001
Dummy: Pensioner               1,0146**     0,0707    1,8432**       0,0691    Initial conditions less
Years in retirement           -0,0159**     0,0024   -0,0066**       0,0015    important
Ever had physical injury to                                                    Education more
disability                     -0,1039*     0,0554    -0,0498        0,0711
Less than good health         -0,1510**     0,0439   -0,1713**       0,0496
                                                                               Employment crucial (non-
Country-specific                                                               linear for W)
Continental                    -0,0315      0,0452   -0,1238**       0,0486    Some variables have opposite
Southern                      -0,2944**     0,0868    -0,1453        0,0828    sign M/F. (family variables)
Transition                    -0,5211**     0,1986    -0,1327        0,2132
                                                                               Some evidence of dampening
Log of GDP per capita 1970    0,6701**      0,0973    1,0112**       0,1031    by group – women benefit
Constant term                 1,3380**      0,9899   -3,4974**       1,0391
                                                                               more from initial high GDP.
# Observations                    10404                   12709
R2                                 0.245                   0.339
18



First results at decomposing differences
              % explained by differences in employment     by differences in education
  60
                                                                 53,6
  50
                     44,3                   44,4
                                                          38,9
  40                                               36,0                                 35,5
                                     24,5
              30,5                                                               30,3
  30                                                                      24,9
                             21,9                                48
  20
       12,7          33                     36            35
              27                                   31
  10                                 25                                           23     24
                              18                                           16
       12
   0
       50-    65-    80+      50-    65-    80+    50-    65-    80+      50-    65-    80+
       64     80              64     80            64     80              64     80

               Nordics              Continental           Southern          Transition



   • Use common Loading factors (pooled equation) i.e. no separate effect, (as
     in Neumark (1988) – non discrimination). How different are explanatory
     variables vs ‘pure’ gender effect (gender dummy)
   • Look at effect of different ‘endowments’ in four country groups.
   • Leave different loading factors for future (> complex interpretation) as in
     usual Oaxaca models.
   • Results considerably different by country group and cohort.
        ▫ Most equalising effect in Nordics
19


Separate equations for work and
pensions: preliminary observations
 In the earnings equation:
 • Family variables are very significant but of opposite sign by gender.
 • Favourable initial conditions affect men more than women
 • Wider differences M/W in effect of initial conditions
 • Years in employment has no apparent influence. Education has a very strong
    influence.
 • Being in a rich country affects men more than women
 • Collecting a pension depresses income from earnings
 In the pensions equation:
 • Overall gender effects are comparable to earnings.
 • Women have systematically lower pensions than men in the Continental countries
    (social insurance systems?). In Transition countries (ceteris paribus) women are
    better off.
 • Education is far more important for women (due to participation effects?).
 • Number of children exerts a strong negative effect on women – presumably
    accounting for dropping out of the labour market and other constraints on working.
 • Early deprivation has smaller effect, confined to men. It appears that the social
    protection system to some extent corrects for initial disadvantage.
 • Years of employment have a non-linear effect which diminishes with years
 • Early retirement is associated with lower pensions.
20




“There’s gold in them thar hills…”
(Virginia gold rush – 1840s’)
• First results are encouraging
• Long way in a short space. Attempt to be
  parsimonious with numbers!!
• There is much to be explained + much still left out.
  ▫ Easy to lose the wood from the trees.
• The wood:
• The exercise using retrospective data of the
  European 50+ population may chart the
  success or failure of social protection system.
• How are today’s pension gaps related to past
  events? What are the prospects for the
  future??

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5 tinios gender ifa-tinios-2012

  • 1. 1 PLATON TINIOS & ANTIGONE LYBERAKI University of Piraeus Panteion University GREECE GREECE GENDER GAPS AND LIFETIME INEQUALITY: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF MICRO-DATA FROM EUROPE IFA Conference, Prague May 2012
  • 2. 2 A new –lifetime - perspective on an old issue • Attempt to examine empirical implications of a novel and innovative micro dataset on an old issue of importance for gender balance • The old issue: ‘the’ Gender gap ▫ Systematic differences in life chances between men & women ▫ Observed in many dimensions, across countries, domains etc. • The new data: SHARELIFE ▫ SHARE {w1 (2004) w2 (2007)} – European interdisciplinary panel of people 50+ (comparable to HRS in US, ELSA in UK)) ▫ SHARELIFE (2009) – Retrospective lifetime questions for SHARE sample:  Childhood, education, health, family, work, etc for entire life. • The new perspective ▫ How are gender gaps generated and how do they solidify in older ages?  Cross-country, cross-cohort, various dimensions  Key (ultimate) motivation: Palliative role of welfare states?? ▫ A tour d’ horizon - attempt to quantify effects of different dimensions  Clarify issues – See the ‘lie of the land’
  • 3. 3 Outline: Halfway there… 1. Gender gaps and the life time perspective ▫ Conceptual discussion. 2. Derive alternative measures of the gender gap appropriate to older populations aged 50+ 3. Vector of starting deprivation into scalar index of starting position 4. Examine socioeconomic mobility patterns 5. Attempt to disaggregate gender gap by a means of a reduced form equation
  • 4. 4 What is the gender gap? • Gender gap is an achievement gap ▫ women are underpaid, undervalued and overworked. ▫ Gender inequities in own income – economic independence deficit ▫ Why doesn’t wage gap lead to rise in demand? • In general gender gaps are shrinking over time • What does it depend on? ▫ Observables (education etc) / discrimination ▫ Oaxaca (1973) method attempts to decompose  But: occupational segregation complicates  Bergmann (1974) overcrowding depresses wages • In career terms – snowball effect of low participation, few hours, lower wages ▫ Evidence of polarisation among women ▫ Cumulative earning gap (Luxembourg Income Study) ▫ Could solidify further once retire from the labour market • SHARELIFE should provide data to examine issues as well as a new perspective:. ▫ E.g. interdisciplinary insights + effect of Welfare State.
  • 5. 5 Conceptual issues • GENDER GAPS: ▫ Multidimensional. Prominence to remuneration ▫ Here: Cumulative (over life) or end-state. • Research strategy: DETERMINANTS ▫ Split into different stages of life:  Initial, education, work/family, pension, health,  Social protection as a palliative influence through the life course  ‘Worlds of welfare capitalism’ -- chart the heyday of the Welfare Staete • 1st approach: Examine total effect on end- result ▫ OLS of variables on end state Gender gap.  ≅ Reduced form.  Gives overview of total significance, though not causal (yet) ▫ Could examine each stage in turn as stages cumulate over the life course, (plus partial attempts at amelioration)  Approach adopted in FRB (initial and work/family).  Axel Börsch-Supan et al 2011. Ongoing work.  E.g. early health⇒ Education⇒ Work chances⇒ End-state
  • 6. 6 How to define an over-50 Gender gap? • Gender gap usually identified as difference in wages and/or earnings. ▫ End-state to be examined relatively well-defined • In a sample of people 50+, situation is more nuanced: ▫ Some have never worked  Depending on conditions some decades ago. ▫ Earnings exist for those who work. ▫ Pensions cumulate past differences and correct  depending on welfare state structure and parameters of the preceding periods ▫ Selection between earnings/pensions endogenous  Depends on personal preferences and welfare state parameters. (retirement ages) • In household level micro-data: ▫ Savings also cumulate – income from property, rents, business  Categories of income accrue to household. (some social assistance)  Equivalence scales force gender equality by definition!
  • 7. 7 Two alternative courses of action I. Define hybrid ‘Personal income’ ▫ Personal Income= Personal Income from Pensions + Personal Income from Employment + Equivalent income from other household level income sources  Not so much an ‘earnings gap’ but a ‘disposition of resources gap’ ▫ Wider than gender gap -- cumulative effect over time ▫ In addition to earnings encompasses other disadvantages ▫ Narrower than gender gap --intra-household sharing  Rich housewives still rich, if household is rich II. Decompose into (a) participation gap (b) retirement gap (c) earnings gap for those working (d) pensions gap for pensioners/ retired. ▫ Richer diagnosis – less easy to interpret.  Two discrete choices – two alternative earnings determinations ▫ More complex as a description
  • 8. 8 Overview of empirical work presented 1. Examination of end-state gaps • Under the two alternative definitions 2. Social Mobility analysis ▫ Derivation of initial state ‘deprivation index’ ▫ From initial conditions to end-conditions. 3. Reduced form OLS equation explaining end-gap*** ▫ (Equivalent to Oaxaca-type study) ▫ Groups of variables  ‘Pure gender’ effect – dummy  Effect of initial conditions  Education, work/family, pension ▫ Quantify effect of different groups using predicted values for country groups and cohorts  For average values  For the poorest 20%
  • 9. 9 1: Crude gender gaps in 2007/9: Personal income, 50+ population Gender Gap based on Mean Personal Income Gender Gap based on Median Personal Income 48 50 50 46 42 43 39 41 39 45 46 40 33 38 37 39 30 33 33 34 35 27 23 17 18 20 19 16 10 21 13 0 SE DK NL DE BE FR CH AT IT ES GR PL CZ Gap= 1- (Average for women/ Average for men) Highest in South; smaller in North/Transition Median gap – indication significant difference in distribution by gender Gender gap widest in group 65-80. 80+ falls (influence of widows’ pensions)
  • 10. 10 Personal Income distribution by gender: Two extremes GR, SE) Greece Greece male female 30 Gini M=0.437 Percent 20 F=0.574 10 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 personal income Graphs by male or female High prevalence of zero incomes -- non-declaration? Non-working spouse in employee or pensioner household? Sweden Sweden male female 15 Gini 10 Percent M=0.330 5 F=0.342 0 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 personal income Graphs by male or female
  • 11. 11 Detailed participation and separate earnings and pension gaps Earnings and pensions gap Participation gap (for those with +ve values) Gender Participation Gap (M-W) to Personal Income sources (in Labour income Pension income percentage points) Gender Earnings Gap (among those receiving either income source) Pension or labour income 43,1 50 45 40,7 38,8 40 34,8 35,0 34,6 40 32,9 35 30,2 30 27,3 24,2 34,4 30 21,8 21,4 22,5 25 19,4 20 16,4 16,8 20 13,8 15 9,9 9,5 10 6,7 7,8 5,6 10 5 1,2 1,2 0 0 SE DK NL DE BE FR CH AT IT ES GR PL CZ SE DK NL DE BE FR CH AT IT ES GR PL CZ
  • 12. 12 Comparison of more familiar concepts: earnings and pension gaps • Define for two groups Gender Income Gap Labour income: Persons 50-64 relatively close in age. by income source among those receiving each source ▫ Earnings 50-64 Pension income: Persons 65-80 ▫ Pensions 65-80 Pension and labour income: Persons 50+ • Could also be seen as ‘a 60 look into the future of the pension gap’. 50 • No clear pattern ▫ Earnings>Pensions 40  DK, BE,CH,AT,CZ, ES 30 ▫ Pensions> Earnings  FR,IT,GR, PL 20 ▫ Almost the same  SE,DE 10 • Need to understand differences 0 SE DK NL DE BE FR CH AT IT ES GR PL CZ
  • 13. 13 2. Mobility analysis • Childhood deprivation index ▫ Described in Lyberaki, Tinios, Georgiadis 2011  Related to end-state persistent poverty + soc. protection  Index of relative deprivation by country at age 10.  Weight more deprivation of those qualities more widely enjoyed  Constructed by 11 indicators (housing, family indicators) • Gives an idea of starting point ▫ As chiefly family deprivation - gender balanced. ▫ Cohort sensitive; though ▫ However, the two sexes have different chances to alter personal position • Chart personal changes in rank ▫ Change of quintile in distribution ▫ Spearman rank order coefficients
  • 14. 14 Upward mobility Remained stable Downward mobility Mobility – Change in 100 quintile ranks 25,0 21,2 22,6 Considerable change over time 36,0 31,3 36,9 42,1 43,2 75 From starting point of gender equality (household status 50 same for brother & sister) To end point 25 51,3 53,5 53,1 46,3 41,4 Males move up 38,6 32,6 32,3 Females down 0 M F M F M F M F Biggest difference in South Nordics Continental Southern Eastern Spearman rank-order coefficient (on percentiles) Biggest difference in Continent Smallest in North
  • 15. 15 3. Description of Reduced form OLS equation • Dependent: Log (Personal income in 2007/9) • ‘Pure gender effect’ = Gender dummy • ‘Indirect gender effect’ = through gender differences in other determinants of income ▫ (Assuming as 1st approx. coefficients same for men and women). 1. Initial effects – Cohort, Index, + GNP pc at 1960. 2. Education – years of schooling, higher dummy 3. Family status – Never married, widowed, divorced, married, Number of children 4. Work – years, years squared 5. Health – bad health during life, at end 6. Pensions - pensioner, years since pension 7. Country group dummies. Log of GDP pc in 1970 Approach similar to Oaxaca decomposition - proceed step by step
  • 16. Y=Log(Personal income) Pooled 16 Variables Coef. Std. Err. Age: 50-64 years 0,4631** 0,0430 Age: 65-79 years  Age: 80 years 0,1807** 0,0374 Female -0,4049** 0,0355 Pooled equation Childhood non deprivation index: 0 to 1 (no deprivation) 0,6276** 0,1243 Years in education 0,0432** 0,0048 Dummy: Higher Education 0,4067** 0,0431 Pooled equation – presumes Single 0,0743 Married  0,0652 independent variables Divorced 0,0444 0,0639 operate in the same way Widowed 0,5488** 0,0375 for men and women. Number of Children 0,0207* 0,0109 Use as first approximation Years in employment 0,0485** 0,0041 Reasonable fit Squared term: Years in employment -0,0005** 0,0001 Intuitive results Dummy: Pensioner 1,5025** 0,0497 “pure gender effect” – Years in retirement -0,0090** Ever had physical injury to 0,0013 implies a gap of 33% if all disability -0,0850* 0,0454 else is equal. Less than good health -0,1630** 0,0347 Employment crucial. Country-specific Nordic  All stages appear to have to Continental -0,0936** 0,0343 ‘expected’ effect Southern -0,2374** 0,0610 Country dummies included in Transition -0,1134 0,1496 lieu of social protection. Effect Log of GDP per capita 1970 0,8777** 0,0729 not easy to interpret. Constant term -1,6337* 0,7340 # Observations 23113 R2 0.323
  • 17. Y=Log(Personal income) Males Females 17 Std. Variables Coef. Err. Coef. Std. Err. Age: 50-64 years 0,2686** 0,0513 0,4965** 0,0630 Age: 80 years 0,0898 0,0513 0,2089** 0,0491 Childhood deprivation index: 0 to 1 0,9018** 0,1647 0,3925** 0,1772 OLS equation by Years in education 0,0327** 0,0067 0,0513** 0,0065 gender Dummy: Higher Education 0,3104** 0,0565 0,4787** 0,0627 Single -0,2142** 0,0915 0,2643** 0,0931 By gender– presumes variables Married   operate differently for Divorced -0,4089** 0,1078 0,3102** 0,0762 men and women. Widowed 0,1414** 0,0548 0,5698** 0,0450 Obviously so. Number of Children 0,0182 0,0148 0,0210 0,0147 Years in employment 0,0204** 0,0081 0,0452** 0,0052 Higher explanatory power for women. Squared employment -0,0001 0,0001 -0,0004** 0,0001 Dummy: Pensioner 1,0146** 0,0707 1,8432** 0,0691 Initial conditions less Years in retirement -0,0159** 0,0024 -0,0066** 0,0015 important Ever had physical injury to Education more disability -0,1039* 0,0554 -0,0498 0,0711 Less than good health -0,1510** 0,0439 -0,1713** 0,0496 Employment crucial (non- Country-specific linear for W) Continental -0,0315 0,0452 -0,1238** 0,0486 Some variables have opposite Southern -0,2944** 0,0868 -0,1453 0,0828 sign M/F. (family variables) Transition -0,5211** 0,1986 -0,1327 0,2132 Some evidence of dampening Log of GDP per capita 1970 0,6701** 0,0973 1,0112** 0,1031 by group – women benefit Constant term 1,3380** 0,9899 -3,4974** 1,0391 more from initial high GDP. # Observations 10404 12709 R2 0.245 0.339
  • 18. 18 First results at decomposing differences % explained by differences in employment by differences in education 60 53,6 50 44,3 44,4 38,9 40 36,0 35,5 24,5 30,5 30,3 30 24,9 21,9 48 20 12,7 33 36 35 27 31 10 25 23 24 18 16 12 0 50- 65- 80+ 50- 65- 80+ 50- 65- 80+ 50- 65- 80+ 64 80 64 80 64 80 64 80 Nordics Continental Southern Transition • Use common Loading factors (pooled equation) i.e. no separate effect, (as in Neumark (1988) – non discrimination). How different are explanatory variables vs ‘pure’ gender effect (gender dummy) • Look at effect of different ‘endowments’ in four country groups. • Leave different loading factors for future (> complex interpretation) as in usual Oaxaca models. • Results considerably different by country group and cohort. ▫ Most equalising effect in Nordics
  • 19. 19 Separate equations for work and pensions: preliminary observations In the earnings equation: • Family variables are very significant but of opposite sign by gender. • Favourable initial conditions affect men more than women • Wider differences M/W in effect of initial conditions • Years in employment has no apparent influence. Education has a very strong influence. • Being in a rich country affects men more than women • Collecting a pension depresses income from earnings In the pensions equation: • Overall gender effects are comparable to earnings. • Women have systematically lower pensions than men in the Continental countries (social insurance systems?). In Transition countries (ceteris paribus) women are better off. • Education is far more important for women (due to participation effects?). • Number of children exerts a strong negative effect on women – presumably accounting for dropping out of the labour market and other constraints on working. • Early deprivation has smaller effect, confined to men. It appears that the social protection system to some extent corrects for initial disadvantage. • Years of employment have a non-linear effect which diminishes with years • Early retirement is associated with lower pensions.
  • 20. 20 “There’s gold in them thar hills…” (Virginia gold rush – 1840s’) • First results are encouraging • Long way in a short space. Attempt to be parsimonious with numbers!! • There is much to be explained + much still left out. ▫ Easy to lose the wood from the trees. • The wood: • The exercise using retrospective data of the European 50+ population may chart the success or failure of social protection system. • How are today’s pension gaps related to past events? What are the prospects for the future??