Polynomial Fits and Predictions to and from Population Estimates [1]
Подбор уравнений [аппроксимирующих многочленов] на основе оценок численности населения и для их прогноза [тыс. человек; столбец «Переписи» добавлен для сравнения с математической моделью, у Раммеля в данной
таблице отсутствует]



                                                                                         POLYNOMIAL FITS [2]
        ПЕРЕПИСИ                       OVERALL [3]                LON NOL PERIOD [4]         KHMER ROUGE PERIOD [5]        SAMRIN PERIOD [6]         FORECAST            PREDICTED POPULATION [8]
 Year                 Month    №    LOW     MID      HIGH    №     LOW     MID      HIGH   №    LOW       MID  HIGH   №     LOW     MID      HIGH   №      [7]     №        LOW       MID      HIGH
 1953                      7    1    3819    4018     4105
 1954                      7    2    4099    4234     4338
 1955                      7    3    4254    4375     4475
 1956                      7    4    4346    4484     4571
 1957                      7    5    4419    4592     4661
 1958                      7    6    4505    4719     4771
 1959                      7    7    4621    4875     4916
 1960                      7    8    4776    5064     5099
 1961                      7    9    4971    5283     5322
 1962      5728,771        7   10    5201    5527     5576
 1963                      7   11    5456    5785     5853
 1964                      7   12    5725    6043     6140
 1965                      7   13    5994    6302     6424
 1966                      7   14    6248    6538     6692
 1967                      7   15    6475    6743     6934
 1968                      7   16    6664    6911     7138   49    6561    6753    7151
 1969                      7   17    6804    7033     7297   50    6829    7081    7414
 1970                      2   13    6862    7083     7368   51    6874    7115    7454
 1970                      3   19    6868    7088     7376   52    6877    7115    7457
 1970                      7   20    6891    7107     7406   53    6390    7111    7461
 1971                      7   21    6920    7131     7464   54    6954    7108    7467                                                              96     7434   124       7127     7454      7990
 1972                      7   22    6893    7107     7472   55    7093    7197    7523                                                              97     7647   125       7304     7685      8315
 1973                      7   23    6813    7039     7434   56    7241    7365    7628   62    7158   7393    7621                                  98     7809   126       7431     7921      8652
 1974                      7   24    6688    6936     7358   57    7197    7462    7700   63    7124   7300    7643                                  99     7972   127       7657     8160      9001
 1975                      4   25    6570    6840     7283   58    6837    7319    7630   64    6930   7089    7529                                 100     8094   128       7789     8342      9270
 1975                      7   26    6527    6806     7255   59    6613    7199    7565   65    6843   7001    7470                                 101     8135   129       7832     3404      9362
 1976                      1   27    6438    6734     7197   60    5984    6805    7342   66    6645   6808    7331                                 102     8216   130       7920     8527      9547
 1976                      7   28    6345    6661     7137   61    5027    6150    6965   67    6428   6603    7173                                 103     8298   131       8008     8651      9734
 1977                      1   29    6250    6587     7076                                68    6205   6399    7006                                 104     8379   132       8095     8776      9925
 1977                      7   30    6154    6515     7017                                69    5991   6209    6842   76    6071    6562     6820   105     8460   133       8182     3903     10119
 1978                      1   31    6062    6445     6961                                70    5799   6046    6690   77    5816    6291     6593   106     8542   134       8269     9030     10315
 1978                      7   32    5973    6381     6910                                71    5645   5923    6562   78    5642    6113     6503   107     8623   135       8356     9153     10515
 1979                      1   33    5390    6323     6866                                72    5541   5853    6468   79    5536    6023     6505   108     8705   136       8443     9288     10718
 1979                      7   34    5816    6273     6831                                73    5502   5843    6420   80    5436    5990     6566   109     8786   137       8530     9413     10923
 1979                     12   35    5761    6238     6809                                74    5530   5903    6421   81    5478    5999     6643   110     8854   138       8603     9529     11098
 1980                      7   36    5699    6202     6792                                75    5675   6086    6500   82    5509    6050     6762   111     8949   139       8704     9682     11343
 1980      6589,954       11   37    5671    6139     6790                                                            83    5543    6094     6832   112     9004   140       8762     9773     11489
 1981                      3   38    5650    6182     6793                                                            84    5585    6143     6395   113     9058   141       8820     9861     11631
 1981                      5   39    5641    6180     6798                                                            85    5609    6170     6926   114     9086   142       8849     9907     11705
 1981                      7   40    5635    6180     6803                                                            86    5634    6196     6953   115     9112   143       8877     9950     11775
 1981                     12   41    5627    6187     6824                                                            87    5702    6264     7016   116     9130   144       8949    10064     11960
 1982                      7   42    5634    6213     6870                                                            88    5802    6354     7084   117     9274   145       9049    10222     12219
 1983                      7   43    5700    6302     6993                                                            89    5973    6478     7159   118     9437   146       9221    10499     12675
 1984                      7   44    5829    6442     7165                                                            90    6125    6547     7213   119     9600   147       9393    10779     13142
 1985                      7   45    6011    6621     7368                                                            91    6251    6569     7309   120     9763   143       9564    11063     13621
 1986                      7   46    6223    6814     7575                                                            92    6366    6577     7465   121     9926   149       9734    11352     14112
 1987                      7   47    6427    6988     7743                                                            93    6500    6634     7678   122    10088   150       9905    11645     14615
 1988                      7   48    6573    7094     7814                                                            94    6702    6329     7376   123    10251   151      10074    11941     15130
1. Population estimates are given on lines 605 of table 4.1. See chapter text for an explanation of the calculations.
2. These are best fits to the population estimates calculated from polynomial equations. Their degree is given in the following footnotes.
3. Low from a 6th degree equation of rolling averages (period 3); mid-fit and high are from 4th degree equations of annual averages.
4. Low, mid, and high fits from a 4th degree equations of annual averages.
5. Low from a 3th degree equation of rolling averages (period 3); mid-fit and high are from 3th degree equations of annual averages.
6. Mid-value from a 4th degree equation of rolling averages (period 3); low and high are from 4th and 5th degree equations, respectively, of annual averages.
7. These are fits to population projections given in the literature – see table 4.1, lines 777-788. The fit is of a first degree linear equation.
8. Predictions are to 1971-1988 population. Low, mid, and high predictions are from 2th degree equations of annual averages.

42

  • 1.
    Polynomial Fits andPredictions to and from Population Estimates [1] Подбор уравнений [аппроксимирующих многочленов] на основе оценок численности населения и для их прогноза [тыс. человек; столбец «Переписи» добавлен для сравнения с математической моделью, у Раммеля в данной таблице отсутствует] POLYNOMIAL FITS [2] ПЕРЕПИСИ OVERALL [3] LON NOL PERIOD [4] KHMER ROUGE PERIOD [5] SAMRIN PERIOD [6] FORECAST PREDICTED POPULATION [8] Year Month № LOW MID HIGH № LOW MID HIGH № LOW MID HIGH № LOW MID HIGH № [7] № LOW MID HIGH 1953 7 1 3819 4018 4105 1954 7 2 4099 4234 4338 1955 7 3 4254 4375 4475 1956 7 4 4346 4484 4571 1957 7 5 4419 4592 4661 1958 7 6 4505 4719 4771 1959 7 7 4621 4875 4916 1960 7 8 4776 5064 5099 1961 7 9 4971 5283 5322 1962 5728,771 7 10 5201 5527 5576 1963 7 11 5456 5785 5853 1964 7 12 5725 6043 6140 1965 7 13 5994 6302 6424 1966 7 14 6248 6538 6692 1967 7 15 6475 6743 6934 1968 7 16 6664 6911 7138 49 6561 6753 7151 1969 7 17 6804 7033 7297 50 6829 7081 7414 1970 2 13 6862 7083 7368 51 6874 7115 7454 1970 3 19 6868 7088 7376 52 6877 7115 7457 1970 7 20 6891 7107 7406 53 6390 7111 7461 1971 7 21 6920 7131 7464 54 6954 7108 7467 96 7434 124 7127 7454 7990 1972 7 22 6893 7107 7472 55 7093 7197 7523 97 7647 125 7304 7685 8315 1973 7 23 6813 7039 7434 56 7241 7365 7628 62 7158 7393 7621 98 7809 126 7431 7921 8652 1974 7 24 6688 6936 7358 57 7197 7462 7700 63 7124 7300 7643 99 7972 127 7657 8160 9001 1975 4 25 6570 6840 7283 58 6837 7319 7630 64 6930 7089 7529 100 8094 128 7789 8342 9270 1975 7 26 6527 6806 7255 59 6613 7199 7565 65 6843 7001 7470 101 8135 129 7832 3404 9362 1976 1 27 6438 6734 7197 60 5984 6805 7342 66 6645 6808 7331 102 8216 130 7920 8527 9547 1976 7 28 6345 6661 7137 61 5027 6150 6965 67 6428 6603 7173 103 8298 131 8008 8651 9734 1977 1 29 6250 6587 7076 68 6205 6399 7006 104 8379 132 8095 8776 9925 1977 7 30 6154 6515 7017 69 5991 6209 6842 76 6071 6562 6820 105 8460 133 8182 3903 10119 1978 1 31 6062 6445 6961 70 5799 6046 6690 77 5816 6291 6593 106 8542 134 8269 9030 10315 1978 7 32 5973 6381 6910 71 5645 5923 6562 78 5642 6113 6503 107 8623 135 8356 9153 10515 1979 1 33 5390 6323 6866 72 5541 5853 6468 79 5536 6023 6505 108 8705 136 8443 9288 10718 1979 7 34 5816 6273 6831 73 5502 5843 6420 80 5436 5990 6566 109 8786 137 8530 9413 10923 1979 12 35 5761 6238 6809 74 5530 5903 6421 81 5478 5999 6643 110 8854 138 8603 9529 11098 1980 7 36 5699 6202 6792 75 5675 6086 6500 82 5509 6050 6762 111 8949 139 8704 9682 11343 1980 6589,954 11 37 5671 6139 6790 83 5543 6094 6832 112 9004 140 8762 9773 11489 1981 3 38 5650 6182 6793 84 5585 6143 6395 113 9058 141 8820 9861 11631 1981 5 39 5641 6180 6798 85 5609 6170 6926 114 9086 142 8849 9907 11705 1981 7 40 5635 6180 6803 86 5634 6196 6953 115 9112 143 8877 9950 11775 1981 12 41 5627 6187 6824 87 5702 6264 7016 116 9130 144 8949 10064 11960 1982 7 42 5634 6213 6870 88 5802 6354 7084 117 9274 145 9049 10222 12219 1983 7 43 5700 6302 6993 89 5973 6478 7159 118 9437 146 9221 10499 12675 1984 7 44 5829 6442 7165 90 6125 6547 7213 119 9600 147 9393 10779 13142 1985 7 45 6011 6621 7368 91 6251 6569 7309 120 9763 143 9564 11063 13621 1986 7 46 6223 6814 7575 92 6366 6577 7465 121 9926 149 9734 11352 14112 1987 7 47 6427 6988 7743 93 6500 6634 7678 122 10088 150 9905 11645 14615 1988 7 48 6573 7094 7814 94 6702 6329 7376 123 10251 151 10074 11941 15130
  • 2.
    1. Population estimatesare given on lines 605 of table 4.1. See chapter text for an explanation of the calculations. 2. These are best fits to the population estimates calculated from polynomial equations. Their degree is given in the following footnotes. 3. Low from a 6th degree equation of rolling averages (period 3); mid-fit and high are from 4th degree equations of annual averages. 4. Low, mid, and high fits from a 4th degree equations of annual averages. 5. Low from a 3th degree equation of rolling averages (period 3); mid-fit and high are from 3th degree equations of annual averages. 6. Mid-value from a 4th degree equation of rolling averages (period 3); low and high are from 4th and 5th degree equations, respectively, of annual averages. 7. These are fits to population projections given in the literature – see table 4.1, lines 777-788. The fit is of a first degree linear equation. 8. Predictions are to 1971-1988 population. Low, mid, and high predictions are from 2th degree equations of annual averages.