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Evergreen Resources Corporation Gary T. Clark
(EVG/NYSE) – 3/8/01 (609)897-1174
Buy gclark@hanifen.com
Brandon C. Balagna-Toal
BBalagna-Toal@Hanifen.com
(303)291-5257
Raising 2001
Estimates;
Introducing 2002
Estimates
SNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSN
* Price (3/6/01) $35.10 Market Cap (mil) $632 *
* 52 Week Range $21.00 – $40.12 Total Debt/Capital 36% *
* Avg. Daily Vol. (6 mos)[89,000] Trailing 12 Mo. Rev. (Mil.) $56.0 *
* 3-Year Est DCFPS Growth 35% 12-Month Price Target $52 *
***************************************************************************
* Annual EPS Estimates * Quarterly EPS Estimates *
* FY:Dec 2000A 2001E 2002E * FY:Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec *
* EPS $0.86 $3.09 $3.14 * 2001E $0.82 $0.66 $0.72 $0.90 *
* Prev. - $2.62 - * Prev. - - - - *
* Street - $2.58 $2.15 * Street $0.75 $0.59 $0.63 $0.65 *
* P/E 39.0x 11.4x 11.2x * 2000A $0.12 $0.14 $0.15 $0.42 *
* DCF Estimates * Quarterly DCF Estimates *
* FY:Dec 2000A 2001E 2002E * FY:Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec *
* DCF/sh. $2.05 $5.21 $5.16 * 2001E $1.33 $1.15 $1.25 $1.49 *
* Prev. - $4.43 - * Prev. - - - - *
* Street - $4.25 $3.86 * Street $1.24 $0.98 $1.05 $1.12 *
* P/DCF 16.3x 6.7x 6.8x * 2000A $0.28 $0.33 $0.47 $0.95 *
SNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSN
* We are raising our 2001 earnings and cash flow estimates from $2.62 and
$4.43, to $3.09 and $5.21, respectively.
* This primarily reflects an increase in our 2001 NYMEX benchmark gas
price forecast from $5.00/Mcf to $6.20/Mcf.
* Introducing 2002 earnings and cash flow estimates of $3.14 and $5.16,
based on a NYMEX benchmark gas price of $5.00/Mcf.
* Production is tracking in-line with expectations, while LOE costs are
now trending down. This is reflected in our new estimates.
* New tight gas sands play in Northern Ireland (5 Tcf of potential), adds
sizzle to the tempered UK story.
* Year-end 2001 proved reserves target of 1 Tcf and NAV of $75 per share.
* Our opinion remains at Buy until we begin to see signs of Raton Basin
production exceeding expectations.
Raton Basin Operations. EVG had 491 wells producing at year-end 2000,
versus 252 the prior year. Roughly 150 of the 239 well increase is
attributable to the September acquisition from KLT Gas Inc. As of last
week, EVG had drilled 18 new wells, 16 to the Vermejo coals and 2 to the
shallower Raton coals. A total of 120 new wells are budgeted for 2001.
Importantly, the company noted that an aggressive infill drilling program
may be warranted in the Raton. To date EVG has drilled roughly 4 wells
per section (640 acres). EVG now believes it could add 1 or 2 more wells
per section, which could add another 1,000-plus drilling locations and
boost the estimated ultimate recovery of gas-in-place from 60% to 70%.
Current production on-track but not likely to exceed expectations. Year-
end exit rate from the Raton Basin was 76 MMcf/d. As of last week,
production was up to 78 MMcf/d. Thus it appears that Q1 production will
approach, but not exceed our expectation of 78 MMcf/d.
Now that most of Evergreen’s pipeline compression problems and water
discharge issues have been solved, production growth should begin to
accelerate in 2001. An increase from 100 to 120 new wells should also
contribute to a higher growth rate. We estimate that production grew an
average of 3.5 MMcf/d per quarter (excluding the KLT acquisition). The
company has set forth a similar target for 2001. Production growth needs
to exceed this level to warrant a Strong Buy opinion.
Reserves and Net Asset Value (NAV). As previously disclosed, EVG’s year-
end proved reserves of 875 Bcf were in-line with our expectations. The
company also disclosed its probable reserves, which now stand at roughly 1
Tcf. This is a large resource base with significant upside potential for
either Evergreen or a would-be acquirer. However, the stock trades at a
substantial discount to this potential asset value, primarily because
production growth has lagged expectations.
As of 12/31/00 we estimate NAV is roughly $65 per share (assuming a flat
$5.00/Mcf NYMEX gas price scenario). Looking ahead to the end of 2001,
proved reserves should approximate 1 Tcf, which would translate into NAV
of $75 per share. Our target price of $52 per share represents 70% of
projected 12/31/00 NAV, which is roughly EVG’s historical multiple.
Lease operating costs (LOE) appear to be trending down nicely. In Q4, LOE
was $0.38/Mcf, down sharply from $0.44/Mcf in Q3. This was the first
sequential decrease in more than one year. In 2001, the company believes
that LOE costs may continue to trend down further, now that its Raton
Basin support infrastructure is largely in-place.
Hedges. Approximately 38% of EVG’s 2001 gas production is hedged at an
average realized price of $4.30/Mcf. While EVG gives up some upside
relative to our 2001 estimate, its hedge position is not out of line with
many of its small-cap peers.
Financial position and 2001 capital budget. Evergreen is in good shape
with $149 million of bank debt at year-end and a borrowing base of $200
million. Debt-to-total capitalization stands at 36%. We project that
discretionary cash flow will outstrip capital spending by $25 million in
2001, causing a reduction in debt-to-cap to 27%.
EVG plans to spend $75 million in 2001, with $50 million dedicated to the
Raton Basin and $25 million to high-impact exploration projects. The UK
budget is $11 million, which may or not be spent, pending further results
from initial operations.
Introducing 2002 Estimates. In 2002, we are conservatively assuming that
Evergreen’s production will grow 17%, or an average of 3 MMcf/d per
quarter. Given the planned level of drilling, the infrastructure in-place
and the projected per well production profiles, growth should
theoretically exceed our estimate.
UK and Other Exploration Projects.
UK operations update - slow going. The company commented that operating
and regulatory hurdles continue to slow its progress in the UK. EVG’s best
hope for near-term production is from the “GOB” gas wells (wells drilled
into abandoned mines), several of which are now on pump.
The company has temporarily suspended operations in the Mersey Sealand
area where it has drilled 4 coalbed methane wells, pending further review
of technical data.
EVG plans to drill an offset well in the “Four Oaks” area where it’s
initial coalbed methane well has shown some encouraging results.
The UK is clearly still in the project stage and not ready for full-scale
development, therefore, we have included no production in our 2001 or 2002
estimates.
On the conference call, Evergreen downplayed the significance of its UK
operations and focused instead on its newly acquired, high-impact,
Northern Ireland exploration play.
Tight Gas Sand Exploration Play in Northern Ireland. EVG recently
acquired 605,000 prospective acres in a basin that is geologically
analogous to the Appalachian Basin in the US. Upside recoverable reserve
estimates are in the range of 5 Tcf.
The company plans to drill 4 shallow wells in 2001, targeting multiple
stacked pay zones. Reserve potential is 1 Bcf-plus per well and there are
more than 5,000 theoretical drilling locations. The political and economic
climate in Northern Ireland is very favorable, with a 1/8 royalty and no
severance taxes. There is a strong demand for gas to supply the local
power grid, as well as a number of potential industrial consumers.
Evergreen estimates that gas could be sold for $2 to $3/Mcf.
Average well costs under a full-scale development program are estimated at
$300,000. The company has access to 400km of seismic data on the block and
core samples/logging data from 10 well bores, originally drilled in the
1980’s.
We are favorably inclined toward this play because Evergreen’s work
commitment ($2.5 million) and its cost of entry (25,000 restricted shares)
is very low, while reserve potential is very high. The play is in EVG’s
sweet spot both technically and operationally. Nonetheless, we do not
believe the market will pay-up for this prospect until the initial wells
are down and deemed successful.
Nine Mile Exploration prospect in NW Colorado offers a high-risk, high
reward kicker. EVG is currently drilling and testing this multi-zone
conventional prospect. Net reserve potential exceeds 100 Bcf and initial
results should be available within 1 to 2 months.
The analyst owns a beneficial interest in the shares of Evergreen
Resources.
Additional Information Available upon Request
Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Inc. research also available online at
http://www.multexnet.com and http://www.firstcall.com
Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Inc.
One Financial Plaza 1125 17th
Street
501 N. Broadway Suite 1600
St. Louis, Missouri 63102 Denver, Colorado 80202
314 342-2000 303 296-2300
Member SIPC and New York Stock Exchange, Inc.
Additional information is available upon request. The information and statistical data contained herein have
been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but in no way are warranted by us as to accuracy or
completeness. We do not undertake to advise you as to any changes in figures or our views. This is not a
solicitation of any order to buy or sell. We, our affiliates, and any officer, director, or stockholder, or any
member of their families may have a position in and may from time to time purchase or sell any of the herein
mentioned or related securities.
2000 2001 2002
FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY % Chg Q1 Q2 Q3E Q4E FYE % Chg Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E FYE % Chg
Average daily production:
Crude oil and liquids (bbls/day) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm
Natural gas (MMcf/day) 40.5 42.8 54.2 75.5 53.3 42 77.3 79.8 85.0 89.0 82.8 55 93.0 97.0 101.0 105.0 99.0 20
Total Bcfe produced 3.7 3.9 5.0 6.9 19.5 42 7.0 7.3 7.8 8.2 30.3 56 8.4 8.8 9.3 9.7 36.1 19
Average product price:
Crude oil and liquids ($/bbl) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Nm $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Nm $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Nm
Natural gas ($/Mcf) $2.01 $2.12 $2.41 $3.99 $2.63 59 $5.43 $4.49 $3.77 $3.41 $4.27 62 $2.74 $2.52 $3.18 $3.40 $2.96 -31
Revenue:
Oil sales $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Nm $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Nm $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Nm
Gas sales 7.4 8.2 12.0 27.7 55.4 144 37.8 32.6 29.5 28.0 127.8 131 22.9 22.2 29.6 32.9 107.6 -16
Interest income and other 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 Nm 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm
Total revenue $7.4 $8.4 $12.3 $27.9 $56.0 139 $38.0 $32.8 $29.5 $28.0 $128.1 129 $22.9 $22.2 $29.6 $32.9 $107.6 -16
Expenses:
Lease operating costs $1.8 $1.9 $2.7 $2.7 $9.1 69 $2.7 $2.8 $3.1 $3.2 $11.8 29 $3.2 $3.3 $3.3 $3.4 $13.2 12
Production taxes Na Na Na Na 0.9 0.9 Na 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 4.7 Nm 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.3 4.3 -9
Transportation costs Na Na Na Na 2.2 2.2 Nm 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 9.1 Nm 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 10.8 19
Deprec., depl., & amort. 1.2 1.3 2.2 3.4 8.2 72 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.3 15.8 93 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 18.1 15
General and administrative 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.2 4.4 39 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.9 7.2 64 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 8.0 12
Interest 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.7 3.3 73 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.0 8.7 161 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 8.9 3
Other 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 Nm 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm
Total expenses $4.4 $4.7 $7.0 $12.2 $28.3 85 $13.8 $14.8 $14.5 $14.8 $57.9 105 $14.9 $15.4 $16.2 $16.8 $63.3 9
Income before taxes $3.1 $3.7 $5.2 $15.7 $27.7 241 $24.2 $18.0 $15.0 $13.1 $70.3 154 $8.0 $6.8 $13.3 $16.1 $44.2 -37
Income taxes 1.2 1.4 2.0 6.0 10.7 259 9.2 6.8 5.7 5.0 26.7 150 3.1 2.6 5.2 6.3 17.3 -35
Effective tax rate 39% 39% 39% 38% 39% 5 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% -2 39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 3
Net income before preferred 1.9 2.2 3.2 9.7 $17.0 230 $15.0 $11.1 $9.3 $8.1 $43.6 156 $4.9 $4.1 $8.1 $9.8 $27.0 -38
Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.1 2.9 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm
Net income available to common$1.9 $2.2 $2.4 $7.6 $14.1 173 $15.0 $11.1 $9.3 $8.1 $43.6 210 $4.9 $4.1 $8.1 $9.8 $27.0 -38
EBITDAX (1) $4.6 $5.5 $8.3 $20.8 $39.2 165 $30.2 $23.9 $21.2 $19.4 $94.7 142 $14.4 $13.4 $20.2 $23.2 $71.2 -25
Discretionary cash flow (2)(3) $4.4 $5.1 $6.7 $17.1 $33.4 154 $27.7 $22.0 $19.1 $16.4 $85.2 155 $11.1 $10.3 $16.2 $18.7 $56.3 -34
Avg. fully diluted shares out (in mils.) 15.5 15.7 15.9 17.9 16.3 19 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.7 19.5 20 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.8 2
Per share results:
Net income $0.12 $0.14 $0.15 $0.42 $0.86 129 $0.78 $0.57 $0.48 $0.41 $2.24 159 $0.25 $0.21 $0.41 $0.50 $1.36 -39
EBITDAX $0.30 $0.35 $0.52 $1.16 $2.41 122 $1.56 $1.23 $1.09 $0.99 $4.86 102 $0.73 $0.68 $1.02 $1.17 $3.60 -26
Cash flow $0.28 $0.33 $0.42 $0.96 $2.05 113 $1.44 $1.13 $0.98 $0.83 $4.37 113 $0.56 $0.52 $0.82 $0.95 $2.84 -35
Per Mcfe data:
Lease operating costs $0.49 $0.49 $0.55 $0.38 $0.47 19 $0.38 $0.38 $0.40 $0.39 $0.39 -17 $0.38 $0.37 $0.36 $0.35 $0.36 -6
Production taxes Na Na Na Na $0.13 Nm Nm $0.21 $0.16 $0.14 $0.12 $0.16 Nm $0.11 $0.10 $0.13 $0.14 $0.12 -23
Transportation costs Na Na Na Na $0.31 Nm Nm $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 Nm $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 0
Deprec., depl., & amort. $0.33 $0.34 $0.44 $0.50 $0.42 21 $0.50 $0.54 $0.52 $0.52 $0.52 24 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 -4
General & administrative $0.27 $0.24 $0.24 $0.18 $0.22 -2 $0.20 $0.29 $0.22 $0.23 $0.24 5 $0.23 $0.23 $0.22 $0.22 $0.22 -6
Interest $0.08 $0.13 $0.18 $0.24 $0.17 22 $0.35 $0.28 $0.27 $0.25 $0.29 67 $0.26 $0.25 $0.24 $0.23 $0.25 -14
Gross margin (oil & gas) $1.51 $1.63 $1.87 $3.63 $2.38 88 $5.00 $4.10 $3.37 $3.02 $3.83 61 $2.36 $2.15 $2.82 $3.05 $2.61 -32
Notes:
(1) Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, and exploration.
(2) Discretionary cash flow includes net income, depreciation, depletion and amoritization, deferred taxes, exploration, and other items.
(3) Q3 and Q4 2000 discretionary cash flow is after preferred dividend payments.
Evergreen Resources, Inc. - Summary of Operating Results and Estimates
($ in millions, except per share data)
2000 2001 2002
FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY % Chg Q1 Q2 Q3E Q4E FYE % Chg Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E FYE % Chg
Average daily production:
Crude oil and liquids (bbls/day) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm
Natural gas (MMcf/day) 40.5 42.8 54.2 75.5 53.3 42 77.3 79.8 85.0 89.0 82.8 55 93.0 97.0 101.0 105.0 99.0 20
Total Bcfe produced 3.7 3.9 5.0 6.9 19.5 42 7.0 7.3 7.8 8.2 30.3 56 8.4 8.8 9.3 9.7 36.1 19
Average product price:
Crude oil and liquids ($/bbl) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Nm $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Nm $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Nm
Natural gas ($/Mcf) $2.01 $2.12 $2.41 $3.99 $2.63 59 $5.43 $4.49 $3.77 $3.41 $4.27 62 $2.74 $2.52 $3.18 $3.40 $2.96 -31
Revenue:
Oil sales $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Nm $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Nm $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Nm
Gas sales 7.4 8.2 12.0 27.7 55.4 144 37.8 32.6 29.5 28.0 127.8 131 22.9 22.2 29.6 32.9 107.6 -16
Interest income and other 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 Nm 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm
Total revenue $7.4 $8.4 $12.3 $27.9 $56.0 139 $38.0 $32.8 $29.5 $28.0 $128.1 129 $22.9 $22.2 $29.6 $32.9 $107.6 -16
Expenses:
Lease operating costs $1.8 $1.9 $2.7 $2.7 $9.1 69 $2.7 $2.8 $3.1 $3.2 $11.8 29 $3.2 $3.3 $3.3 $3.4 $13.2 12
Production taxes Na Na Na Na 0.9 0.9 Na 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 4.7 Nm 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.3 4.3 -9
Transportation costs Na Na Na Na 2.2 2.2 Nm 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 9.1 Nm 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 10.8 19
Deprec., depl., & amort. 1.2 1.3 2.2 3.4 8.2 72 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.3 15.8 93 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 18.1 15
General and administrative 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.2 4.4 39 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.9 7.2 64 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 8.0 12
Interest 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.7 3.3 73 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.0 8.7 161 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 8.9 3
Other 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 Nm 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm
Total expenses $4.4 $4.7 $7.0 $12.2 $28.3 85 $13.8 $14.8 $14.5 $14.8 $57.9 105 $14.9 $15.4 $16.2 $16.8 $63.3 9
Income before taxes $3.1 $3.7 $5.2 $15.7 $27.7 241 $24.2 $18.0 $15.0 $13.1 $70.3 154 $8.0 $6.8 $13.3 $16.1 $44.2 -37
Income taxes 1.2 1.4 2.0 6.0 10.7 259 9.2 6.8 5.7 5.0 26.7 150 3.1 2.6 5.2 6.3 17.3 -35
Effective tax rate 39% 39% 39% 38% 39% 5 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% -2 39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 3
Net income before preferred 1.9 2.2 3.2 9.7 $17.0 230 $15.0 $11.1 $9.3 $8.1 $43.6 156 $4.9 $4.1 $8.1 $9.8 $27.0 -38
Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.1 2.9 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm
Net income available to common$1.9 $2.2 $2.4 $7.6 $14.1 173 $15.0 $11.1 $9.3 $8.1 $43.6 210 $4.9 $4.1 $8.1 $9.8 $27.0 -38
EBITDAX (1) $4.6 $5.5 $8.3 $20.8 $39.2 165 $30.2 $23.9 $21.2 $19.4 $94.7 142 $14.4 $13.4 $20.2 $23.2 $71.2 -25
Discretionary cash flow (2)(3) $4.4 $5.1 $6.7 $17.1 $33.4 154 $27.7 $22.0 $19.1 $16.4 $85.2 155 $11.1 $10.3 $16.2 $18.7 $56.3 -34
Avg. fully diluted shares out (in mils.) 15.5 15.7 15.9 17.9 16.3 19 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.7 19.5 20 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.8 2
Per share results:
Net income $0.12 $0.14 $0.15 $0.42 $0.86 129 $0.78 $0.57 $0.48 $0.41 $2.24 159 $0.25 $0.21 $0.41 $0.50 $1.36 -39
EBITDAX $0.30 $0.35 $0.52 $1.16 $2.41 122 $1.56 $1.23 $1.09 $0.99 $4.86 102 $0.73 $0.68 $1.02 $1.17 $3.60 -26
Cash flow $0.28 $0.33 $0.42 $0.96 $2.05 113 $1.44 $1.13 $0.98 $0.83 $4.37 113 $0.56 $0.52 $0.82 $0.95 $2.84 -35
Per Mcfe data:
Lease operating costs $0.49 $0.49 $0.55 $0.38 $0.47 19 $0.38 $0.38 $0.40 $0.39 $0.39 -17 $0.38 $0.37 $0.36 $0.35 $0.36 -6
Production taxes Na Na Na Na $0.13 Nm Nm $0.21 $0.16 $0.14 $0.12 $0.16 Nm $0.11 $0.10 $0.13 $0.14 $0.12 -23
Transportation costs Na Na Na Na $0.31 Nm Nm $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 Nm $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 0
Deprec., depl., & amort. $0.33 $0.34 $0.44 $0.50 $0.42 21 $0.50 $0.54 $0.52 $0.52 $0.52 24 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 -4
General & administrative $0.27 $0.24 $0.24 $0.18 $0.22 -2 $0.20 $0.29 $0.22 $0.23 $0.24 5 $0.23 $0.23 $0.22 $0.22 $0.22 -6
Interest $0.08 $0.13 $0.18 $0.24 $0.17 22 $0.35 $0.28 $0.27 $0.25 $0.29 67 $0.26 $0.25 $0.24 $0.23 $0.25 -14
Gross margin (oil & gas) $1.51 $1.63 $1.87 $3.63 $2.38 88 $5.00 $4.10 $3.37 $3.02 $3.83 61 $2.36 $2.15 $2.82 $3.05 $2.61 -32
Notes:
(1) Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, and exploration.
(2) Discretionary cash flow includes net income, depreciation, depletion and amoritization, deferred taxes, exploration, and other items.
(3) Q3 and Q4 2000 discretionary cash flow is after preferred dividend payments.
Evergreen Resources, Inc. - Summary of Operating Results and Estimates
($ in millions, except per share data)

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3-8-01 EVG

  • 1. Evergreen Resources Corporation Gary T. Clark (EVG/NYSE) – 3/8/01 (609)897-1174 Buy gclark@hanifen.com Brandon C. Balagna-Toal BBalagna-Toal@Hanifen.com (303)291-5257 Raising 2001 Estimates; Introducing 2002 Estimates SNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSN * Price (3/6/01) $35.10 Market Cap (mil) $632 * * 52 Week Range $21.00 – $40.12 Total Debt/Capital 36% * * Avg. Daily Vol. (6 mos)[89,000] Trailing 12 Mo. Rev. (Mil.) $56.0 * * 3-Year Est DCFPS Growth 35% 12-Month Price Target $52 * *************************************************************************** * Annual EPS Estimates * Quarterly EPS Estimates * * FY:Dec 2000A 2001E 2002E * FY:Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec * * EPS $0.86 $3.09 $3.14 * 2001E $0.82 $0.66 $0.72 $0.90 * * Prev. - $2.62 - * Prev. - - - - * * Street - $2.58 $2.15 * Street $0.75 $0.59 $0.63 $0.65 * * P/E 39.0x 11.4x 11.2x * 2000A $0.12 $0.14 $0.15 $0.42 * * DCF Estimates * Quarterly DCF Estimates * * FY:Dec 2000A 2001E 2002E * FY:Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec * * DCF/sh. $2.05 $5.21 $5.16 * 2001E $1.33 $1.15 $1.25 $1.49 * * Prev. - $4.43 - * Prev. - - - - * * Street - $4.25 $3.86 * Street $1.24 $0.98 $1.05 $1.12 * * P/DCF 16.3x 6.7x 6.8x * 2000A $0.28 $0.33 $0.47 $0.95 * SNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSNSN * We are raising our 2001 earnings and cash flow estimates from $2.62 and $4.43, to $3.09 and $5.21, respectively. * This primarily reflects an increase in our 2001 NYMEX benchmark gas price forecast from $5.00/Mcf to $6.20/Mcf. * Introducing 2002 earnings and cash flow estimates of $3.14 and $5.16, based on a NYMEX benchmark gas price of $5.00/Mcf. * Production is tracking in-line with expectations, while LOE costs are now trending down. This is reflected in our new estimates. * New tight gas sands play in Northern Ireland (5 Tcf of potential), adds sizzle to the tempered UK story. * Year-end 2001 proved reserves target of 1 Tcf and NAV of $75 per share.
  • 2. * Our opinion remains at Buy until we begin to see signs of Raton Basin production exceeding expectations. Raton Basin Operations. EVG had 491 wells producing at year-end 2000, versus 252 the prior year. Roughly 150 of the 239 well increase is attributable to the September acquisition from KLT Gas Inc. As of last week, EVG had drilled 18 new wells, 16 to the Vermejo coals and 2 to the shallower Raton coals. A total of 120 new wells are budgeted for 2001. Importantly, the company noted that an aggressive infill drilling program may be warranted in the Raton. To date EVG has drilled roughly 4 wells per section (640 acres). EVG now believes it could add 1 or 2 more wells per section, which could add another 1,000-plus drilling locations and boost the estimated ultimate recovery of gas-in-place from 60% to 70%. Current production on-track but not likely to exceed expectations. Year- end exit rate from the Raton Basin was 76 MMcf/d. As of last week, production was up to 78 MMcf/d. Thus it appears that Q1 production will approach, but not exceed our expectation of 78 MMcf/d. Now that most of Evergreen’s pipeline compression problems and water discharge issues have been solved, production growth should begin to accelerate in 2001. An increase from 100 to 120 new wells should also contribute to a higher growth rate. We estimate that production grew an average of 3.5 MMcf/d per quarter (excluding the KLT acquisition). The company has set forth a similar target for 2001. Production growth needs to exceed this level to warrant a Strong Buy opinion. Reserves and Net Asset Value (NAV). As previously disclosed, EVG’s year- end proved reserves of 875 Bcf were in-line with our expectations. The company also disclosed its probable reserves, which now stand at roughly 1 Tcf. This is a large resource base with significant upside potential for either Evergreen or a would-be acquirer. However, the stock trades at a substantial discount to this potential asset value, primarily because production growth has lagged expectations. As of 12/31/00 we estimate NAV is roughly $65 per share (assuming a flat $5.00/Mcf NYMEX gas price scenario). Looking ahead to the end of 2001, proved reserves should approximate 1 Tcf, which would translate into NAV of $75 per share. Our target price of $52 per share represents 70% of projected 12/31/00 NAV, which is roughly EVG’s historical multiple. Lease operating costs (LOE) appear to be trending down nicely. In Q4, LOE was $0.38/Mcf, down sharply from $0.44/Mcf in Q3. This was the first sequential decrease in more than one year. In 2001, the company believes that LOE costs may continue to trend down further, now that its Raton Basin support infrastructure is largely in-place. Hedges. Approximately 38% of EVG’s 2001 gas production is hedged at an average realized price of $4.30/Mcf. While EVG gives up some upside
  • 3. relative to our 2001 estimate, its hedge position is not out of line with many of its small-cap peers. Financial position and 2001 capital budget. Evergreen is in good shape with $149 million of bank debt at year-end and a borrowing base of $200 million. Debt-to-total capitalization stands at 36%. We project that discretionary cash flow will outstrip capital spending by $25 million in 2001, causing a reduction in debt-to-cap to 27%. EVG plans to spend $75 million in 2001, with $50 million dedicated to the Raton Basin and $25 million to high-impact exploration projects. The UK budget is $11 million, which may or not be spent, pending further results from initial operations. Introducing 2002 Estimates. In 2002, we are conservatively assuming that Evergreen’s production will grow 17%, or an average of 3 MMcf/d per quarter. Given the planned level of drilling, the infrastructure in-place and the projected per well production profiles, growth should theoretically exceed our estimate. UK and Other Exploration Projects. UK operations update - slow going. The company commented that operating and regulatory hurdles continue to slow its progress in the UK. EVG’s best hope for near-term production is from the “GOB” gas wells (wells drilled into abandoned mines), several of which are now on pump. The company has temporarily suspended operations in the Mersey Sealand area where it has drilled 4 coalbed methane wells, pending further review of technical data. EVG plans to drill an offset well in the “Four Oaks” area where it’s initial coalbed methane well has shown some encouraging results. The UK is clearly still in the project stage and not ready for full-scale development, therefore, we have included no production in our 2001 or 2002 estimates. On the conference call, Evergreen downplayed the significance of its UK operations and focused instead on its newly acquired, high-impact, Northern Ireland exploration play. Tight Gas Sand Exploration Play in Northern Ireland. EVG recently acquired 605,000 prospective acres in a basin that is geologically analogous to the Appalachian Basin in the US. Upside recoverable reserve estimates are in the range of 5 Tcf. The company plans to drill 4 shallow wells in 2001, targeting multiple stacked pay zones. Reserve potential is 1 Bcf-plus per well and there are more than 5,000 theoretical drilling locations. The political and economic climate in Northern Ireland is very favorable, with a 1/8 royalty and no
  • 4. severance taxes. There is a strong demand for gas to supply the local power grid, as well as a number of potential industrial consumers. Evergreen estimates that gas could be sold for $2 to $3/Mcf. Average well costs under a full-scale development program are estimated at $300,000. The company has access to 400km of seismic data on the block and core samples/logging data from 10 well bores, originally drilled in the 1980’s. We are favorably inclined toward this play because Evergreen’s work commitment ($2.5 million) and its cost of entry (25,000 restricted shares) is very low, while reserve potential is very high. The play is in EVG’s sweet spot both technically and operationally. Nonetheless, we do not believe the market will pay-up for this prospect until the initial wells are down and deemed successful. Nine Mile Exploration prospect in NW Colorado offers a high-risk, high reward kicker. EVG is currently drilling and testing this multi-zone conventional prospect. Net reserve potential exceeds 100 Bcf and initial results should be available within 1 to 2 months. The analyst owns a beneficial interest in the shares of Evergreen Resources. Additional Information Available upon Request Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Inc. research also available online at http://www.multexnet.com and http://www.firstcall.com Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Inc. One Financial Plaza 1125 17th Street 501 N. Broadway Suite 1600 St. Louis, Missouri 63102 Denver, Colorado 80202 314 342-2000 303 296-2300 Member SIPC and New York Stock Exchange, Inc. Additional information is available upon request. The information and statistical data contained herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but in no way are warranted by us as to accuracy or completeness. We do not undertake to advise you as to any changes in figures or our views. This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell. We, our affiliates, and any officer, director, or stockholder, or any member of their families may have a position in and may from time to time purchase or sell any of the herein mentioned or related securities.
  • 5. 2000 2001 2002 FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY % Chg Q1 Q2 Q3E Q4E FYE % Chg Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E FYE % Chg Average daily production: Crude oil and liquids (bbls/day) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm Natural gas (MMcf/day) 40.5 42.8 54.2 75.5 53.3 42 77.3 79.8 85.0 89.0 82.8 55 93.0 97.0 101.0 105.0 99.0 20 Total Bcfe produced 3.7 3.9 5.0 6.9 19.5 42 7.0 7.3 7.8 8.2 30.3 56 8.4 8.8 9.3 9.7 36.1 19 Average product price: Crude oil and liquids ($/bbl) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Nm $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Nm $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Nm Natural gas ($/Mcf) $2.01 $2.12 $2.41 $3.99 $2.63 59 $5.43 $4.49 $3.77 $3.41 $4.27 62 $2.74 $2.52 $3.18 $3.40 $2.96 -31 Revenue: Oil sales $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Nm $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Nm $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Nm Gas sales 7.4 8.2 12.0 27.7 55.4 144 37.8 32.6 29.5 28.0 127.8 131 22.9 22.2 29.6 32.9 107.6 -16 Interest income and other 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 Nm 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm Total revenue $7.4 $8.4 $12.3 $27.9 $56.0 139 $38.0 $32.8 $29.5 $28.0 $128.1 129 $22.9 $22.2 $29.6 $32.9 $107.6 -16 Expenses: Lease operating costs $1.8 $1.9 $2.7 $2.7 $9.1 69 $2.7 $2.8 $3.1 $3.2 $11.8 29 $3.2 $3.3 $3.3 $3.4 $13.2 12 Production taxes Na Na Na Na 0.9 0.9 Na 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 4.7 Nm 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.3 4.3 -9 Transportation costs Na Na Na Na 2.2 2.2 Nm 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 9.1 Nm 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 10.8 19 Deprec., depl., & amort. 1.2 1.3 2.2 3.4 8.2 72 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.3 15.8 93 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 18.1 15 General and administrative 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.2 4.4 39 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.9 7.2 64 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 8.0 12 Interest 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.7 3.3 73 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.0 8.7 161 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 8.9 3 Other 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 Nm 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm Total expenses $4.4 $4.7 $7.0 $12.2 $28.3 85 $13.8 $14.8 $14.5 $14.8 $57.9 105 $14.9 $15.4 $16.2 $16.8 $63.3 9 Income before taxes $3.1 $3.7 $5.2 $15.7 $27.7 241 $24.2 $18.0 $15.0 $13.1 $70.3 154 $8.0 $6.8 $13.3 $16.1 $44.2 -37 Income taxes 1.2 1.4 2.0 6.0 10.7 259 9.2 6.8 5.7 5.0 26.7 150 3.1 2.6 5.2 6.3 17.3 -35 Effective tax rate 39% 39% 39% 38% 39% 5 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% -2 39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 3 Net income before preferred 1.9 2.2 3.2 9.7 $17.0 230 $15.0 $11.1 $9.3 $8.1 $43.6 156 $4.9 $4.1 $8.1 $9.8 $27.0 -38 Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.1 2.9 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm Net income available to common$1.9 $2.2 $2.4 $7.6 $14.1 173 $15.0 $11.1 $9.3 $8.1 $43.6 210 $4.9 $4.1 $8.1 $9.8 $27.0 -38 EBITDAX (1) $4.6 $5.5 $8.3 $20.8 $39.2 165 $30.2 $23.9 $21.2 $19.4 $94.7 142 $14.4 $13.4 $20.2 $23.2 $71.2 -25 Discretionary cash flow (2)(3) $4.4 $5.1 $6.7 $17.1 $33.4 154 $27.7 $22.0 $19.1 $16.4 $85.2 155 $11.1 $10.3 $16.2 $18.7 $56.3 -34 Avg. fully diluted shares out (in mils.) 15.5 15.7 15.9 17.9 16.3 19 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.7 19.5 20 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.8 2 Per share results: Net income $0.12 $0.14 $0.15 $0.42 $0.86 129 $0.78 $0.57 $0.48 $0.41 $2.24 159 $0.25 $0.21 $0.41 $0.50 $1.36 -39 EBITDAX $0.30 $0.35 $0.52 $1.16 $2.41 122 $1.56 $1.23 $1.09 $0.99 $4.86 102 $0.73 $0.68 $1.02 $1.17 $3.60 -26 Cash flow $0.28 $0.33 $0.42 $0.96 $2.05 113 $1.44 $1.13 $0.98 $0.83 $4.37 113 $0.56 $0.52 $0.82 $0.95 $2.84 -35 Per Mcfe data: Lease operating costs $0.49 $0.49 $0.55 $0.38 $0.47 19 $0.38 $0.38 $0.40 $0.39 $0.39 -17 $0.38 $0.37 $0.36 $0.35 $0.36 -6 Production taxes Na Na Na Na $0.13 Nm Nm $0.21 $0.16 $0.14 $0.12 $0.16 Nm $0.11 $0.10 $0.13 $0.14 $0.12 -23 Transportation costs Na Na Na Na $0.31 Nm Nm $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 Nm $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 0 Deprec., depl., & amort. $0.33 $0.34 $0.44 $0.50 $0.42 21 $0.50 $0.54 $0.52 $0.52 $0.52 24 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 -4 General & administrative $0.27 $0.24 $0.24 $0.18 $0.22 -2 $0.20 $0.29 $0.22 $0.23 $0.24 5 $0.23 $0.23 $0.22 $0.22 $0.22 -6 Interest $0.08 $0.13 $0.18 $0.24 $0.17 22 $0.35 $0.28 $0.27 $0.25 $0.29 67 $0.26 $0.25 $0.24 $0.23 $0.25 -14 Gross margin (oil & gas) $1.51 $1.63 $1.87 $3.63 $2.38 88 $5.00 $4.10 $3.37 $3.02 $3.83 61 $2.36 $2.15 $2.82 $3.05 $2.61 -32 Notes: (1) Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, and exploration. (2) Discretionary cash flow includes net income, depreciation, depletion and amoritization, deferred taxes, exploration, and other items. (3) Q3 and Q4 2000 discretionary cash flow is after preferred dividend payments. Evergreen Resources, Inc. - Summary of Operating Results and Estimates ($ in millions, except per share data)
  • 6. 2000 2001 2002 FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY % Chg Q1 Q2 Q3E Q4E FYE % Chg Q1E Q2E Q3E Q4E FYE % Chg Average daily production: Crude oil and liquids (bbls/day) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm Natural gas (MMcf/day) 40.5 42.8 54.2 75.5 53.3 42 77.3 79.8 85.0 89.0 82.8 55 93.0 97.0 101.0 105.0 99.0 20 Total Bcfe produced 3.7 3.9 5.0 6.9 19.5 42 7.0 7.3 7.8 8.2 30.3 56 8.4 8.8 9.3 9.7 36.1 19 Average product price: Crude oil and liquids ($/bbl) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Nm $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Nm $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Nm Natural gas ($/Mcf) $2.01 $2.12 $2.41 $3.99 $2.63 59 $5.43 $4.49 $3.77 $3.41 $4.27 62 $2.74 $2.52 $3.18 $3.40 $2.96 -31 Revenue: Oil sales $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Nm $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Nm $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Nm Gas sales 7.4 8.2 12.0 27.7 55.4 144 37.8 32.6 29.5 28.0 127.8 131 22.9 22.2 29.6 32.9 107.6 -16 Interest income and other 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 Nm 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm Total revenue $7.4 $8.4 $12.3 $27.9 $56.0 139 $38.0 $32.8 $29.5 $28.0 $128.1 129 $22.9 $22.2 $29.6 $32.9 $107.6 -16 Expenses: Lease operating costs $1.8 $1.9 $2.7 $2.7 $9.1 69 $2.7 $2.8 $3.1 $3.2 $11.8 29 $3.2 $3.3 $3.3 $3.4 $13.2 12 Production taxes Na Na Na Na 0.9 0.9 Na 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 4.7 Nm 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.3 4.3 -9 Transportation costs Na Na Na Na 2.2 2.2 Nm 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 9.1 Nm 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 10.8 19 Deprec., depl., & amort. 1.2 1.3 2.2 3.4 8.2 72 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.3 15.8 93 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 18.1 15 General and administrative 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.2 4.4 39 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.9 7.2 64 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 8.0 12 Interest 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.7 3.3 73 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.0 8.7 161 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 8.9 3 Other 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 Nm 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm Total expenses $4.4 $4.7 $7.0 $12.2 $28.3 85 $13.8 $14.8 $14.5 $14.8 $57.9 105 $14.9 $15.4 $16.2 $16.8 $63.3 9 Income before taxes $3.1 $3.7 $5.2 $15.7 $27.7 241 $24.2 $18.0 $15.0 $13.1 $70.3 154 $8.0 $6.8 $13.3 $16.1 $44.2 -37 Income taxes 1.2 1.4 2.0 6.0 10.7 259 9.2 6.8 5.7 5.0 26.7 150 3.1 2.6 5.2 6.3 17.3 -35 Effective tax rate 39% 39% 39% 38% 39% 5 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% -2 39% 39% 39% 39% 39% 3 Net income before preferred 1.9 2.2 3.2 9.7 $17.0 230 $15.0 $11.1 $9.3 $8.1 $43.6 156 $4.9 $4.1 $8.1 $9.8 $27.0 -38 Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.1 2.9 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nm Net income available to common$1.9 $2.2 $2.4 $7.6 $14.1 173 $15.0 $11.1 $9.3 $8.1 $43.6 210 $4.9 $4.1 $8.1 $9.8 $27.0 -38 EBITDAX (1) $4.6 $5.5 $8.3 $20.8 $39.2 165 $30.2 $23.9 $21.2 $19.4 $94.7 142 $14.4 $13.4 $20.2 $23.2 $71.2 -25 Discretionary cash flow (2)(3) $4.4 $5.1 $6.7 $17.1 $33.4 154 $27.7 $22.0 $19.1 $16.4 $85.2 155 $11.1 $10.3 $16.2 $18.7 $56.3 -34 Avg. fully diluted shares out (in mils.) 15.5 15.7 15.9 17.9 16.3 19 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.7 19.5 20 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.8 2 Per share results: Net income $0.12 $0.14 $0.15 $0.42 $0.86 129 $0.78 $0.57 $0.48 $0.41 $2.24 159 $0.25 $0.21 $0.41 $0.50 $1.36 -39 EBITDAX $0.30 $0.35 $0.52 $1.16 $2.41 122 $1.56 $1.23 $1.09 $0.99 $4.86 102 $0.73 $0.68 $1.02 $1.17 $3.60 -26 Cash flow $0.28 $0.33 $0.42 $0.96 $2.05 113 $1.44 $1.13 $0.98 $0.83 $4.37 113 $0.56 $0.52 $0.82 $0.95 $2.84 -35 Per Mcfe data: Lease operating costs $0.49 $0.49 $0.55 $0.38 $0.47 19 $0.38 $0.38 $0.40 $0.39 $0.39 -17 $0.38 $0.37 $0.36 $0.35 $0.36 -6 Production taxes Na Na Na Na $0.13 Nm Nm $0.21 $0.16 $0.14 $0.12 $0.16 Nm $0.11 $0.10 $0.13 $0.14 $0.12 -23 Transportation costs Na Na Na Na $0.31 Nm Nm $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 Nm $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 0 Deprec., depl., & amort. $0.33 $0.34 $0.44 $0.50 $0.42 21 $0.50 $0.54 $0.52 $0.52 $0.52 24 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 $0.50 -4 General & administrative $0.27 $0.24 $0.24 $0.18 $0.22 -2 $0.20 $0.29 $0.22 $0.23 $0.24 5 $0.23 $0.23 $0.22 $0.22 $0.22 -6 Interest $0.08 $0.13 $0.18 $0.24 $0.17 22 $0.35 $0.28 $0.27 $0.25 $0.29 67 $0.26 $0.25 $0.24 $0.23 $0.25 -14 Gross margin (oil & gas) $1.51 $1.63 $1.87 $3.63 $2.38 88 $5.00 $4.10 $3.37 $3.02 $3.83 61 $2.36 $2.15 $2.82 $3.05 $2.61 -32 Notes: (1) Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, and exploration. (2) Discretionary cash flow includes net income, depreciation, depletion and amoritization, deferred taxes, exploration, and other items. (3) Q3 and Q4 2000 discretionary cash flow is after preferred dividend payments. Evergreen Resources, Inc. - Summary of Operating Results and Estimates ($ in millions, except per share data)