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California
Housing Market
Update
Monthly Sales and
Price Statistics
November 2022
Existing Home Sales
% change
-47.7% YTY
California Housing Market Snapshot
page
02
Price
$777,500
-0.6% Y2Y
Unsold
Inventory Index
3.3 months
+106.3% Y2Y
Median Days
on Market
24 days
+118.2% Y2Y
November 2022
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
-21.2% YTD
237,740
Existing Home Sales
% change
-46.9% YTY
November 2022 Southern California Housing Snapshot
page
3
Unsold
Inventory Index
3.6 months
Median Days
on Market
24 days
Sales Price to
List Price Ratio
96.7%
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
-25.2% YTD
Existing Home Price
% change
$750,000
0.0% YTY
Existing Home Sales
% change
-43.5% YTY
November 2022 Central Coast Housing Snapshot
page
4
Unsold
Inventory Index
3.1 months
Median Days
on Market
23 days
Sales Price to
List Price Ratio
96.6%
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
-27.8% YTD
Existing Home Price
% change
$900,000
+0.1% YTY
Existing Home Sales
% change
-42.3% YTY
November 2022 Central Valley Housing Snapshot
page
5
Unsold
Inventory Index
3.3 months
Median Days
on Market
23 days
Sales Price to
List Price Ratio
96.5%
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
-18.5% YTD
Existing Home Price
% change
$445,990
-1.3% YTY
Existing Home Sales
% change
-43.0% YTY
November 2022 Bay Area Housing Snapshot
page
6
Unsold
Inventory Index
2.2 months
Median Days
on Market
21 days
Sales Price to
List Price Ratio
97.4%
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
-25.0% YTD
Existing Home Price
% change
$1,225,000
-5.8% YTY
Existing Home Sales
% change
-37.7% YTY
November 2022 Far North Housing Snapshot
page
7
Unsold
Inventory Index
4.7 months
Median Days
on Market
35 days
Sales Price to
List Price Ratio
95.9%
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
-13.9% YTD
Existing Home Price
% change
$366,000
-3.7% YTY
Sales
Sales bare the brunt of the most rapid growth in rates
page
9
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
May-18
Jan-19
Sep-19
May-20
Jan-21
Sep-21
May-22
California, November 2022 Sales: 237,740 Units, -21.2% YTD,
-47.7% YTY, -13.2% MTM
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Sales drop by nearly 50% the steepest year-over-year
decline on record
page
10
-47.7%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Bay Area sales continue downward trend
page
11
-43.0%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
May-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
May-22
Sep-22
YoY
%
chg.
Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
So. California sales decline further
page
12
-46.9%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
May-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
May-22
Sep-22
So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
YoY
%
chg.
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Central Valley sales slip steeply
page
13
-42.3%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
May-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
May-22
Sep-22
Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
YoY
%
chg.
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Sales by Region
page
14
-46.9%
-43.5% -43.0% -42.3%
-37.7% -37.7%
-25.2% -27.8% -25.0%
-18.5%
-26.7%
-13.9%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
November 2022 Home Sales Growth
by Region
YTY % YTD %
Southern
California
45%
Central
Valley
22%
S.F. Bay
Area
20%
Other Counties
6%
Central
Coast
4% Far North
3%
November 2022
Home Sales by Region
Sales fall below last year by at least 41% in all price
segments
page
15
28%
44%
28%
27%
45%
28%
$0 - $499k
$500 - $999k
$1M+
Share by Price Segment
2022
2021
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
-41%
-43% -42%
-45% -45%
-43%
-48%
-60%
-40%
-20%
November 2022
(YTY% Chg.)
Sales remain suppressed in all price points
page
16
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
YTY
%
Chg.
in
Sales
$0 - $299k $300 - $399k $400 - $499k $500 - $749k
$750 - $999k $1,000 - $1,999k $2,000k+
SERIES: Percent Change in Sales
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Share of $1M+ home sales level off
page
17
28.4%
28.0%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
%
of
Sales
Share Gap $0-$499k $1,000k and up
SERIES: Sales by Price Range
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
COVID-19
Outbreak
Pending sales drop more than 50% though decline
decelerates
page
18
-50.6%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
YTY
%
Chg.
in
Pending
Sales
SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Pending sales – remain sensitive to interest rates
page
19
-50.6%
-57.3%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
YTY
%
Chg.
in
Pending
Sales
SFH Condo/Townhome
SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Pending sales decline across all price points
page
20
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
YTY
%
Chg.
in
Pending
Sales
$0 - $299k $300 - $399k $400 - $499k $500 - $749k $750 - $999k $1,000 - $1,999k $2,000k+
SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Pending sales sensitive to mortgage rate volatility
page
21
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
MTM
%
Chg.
in
pending
Sales
$0 - $299k $300 - $399k $400 - $499k $500 - $749k
$750 - $999k $1,000 - $1,999k $2,000k+
SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Market demand steps back as rates erode affordability
page
22
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
-7%
-11%
-15% -14%
-11%
-19% -17%
-2.7%
-5.5%
1.5%
-9.4%
-14.9%
-17.5%
-28.4%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
November 2022 (MTM% Chg.)
Sales Pending
Price
California median home price softens, growth declines
for first time in 30 months
page
24
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
$1,000,000
Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
May-18
Jan-19
Sep-19
May-20
Jan-21
Sep-21
May-22
California, November 2022: $777,500, -3.0% MTM, -0.6% YTY
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Condo/Townhome median price moderates
page
25
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
May-18
Jan-19
Sep-19
May-20
Jan-21
Sep-21
May-22
Median
Price
California, November 2021: $620,000, November 2022: $612,000
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median price growth for condos and single-family
homes decelerates
page
26
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
YTY%
Chg.
in
Price
Condo Single-Family Homes
SERIES: Median Price of Existing SFH & Condo/Townhomes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Price/Square foot leveling off
page
27
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
PRICE
PER
SQ.
FT.
November 2022: $392, -1.8% MTM, -0.3% YTY
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
The Price/Square foot gap between home types remains
wide
page
28
$392
$530
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
PRICE
PER
SQ.
FT.
Diff. in Price/Sq. Ft. SFH Condo/Townhome
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes
and Condo/Townhomes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
102%
104%
106%
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Sales-to-List
Price
Ratio
November 2022: 96.7%, -0.6% MTM, -4.7% YTY
Sales price-to-list price ratio dipped to the lowest level
in over a decade
page
29
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Share of homes sold above asking price back to
“normal”
page
30
59.2%
72.8%
22.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
%
of
sales
with
price
above
asking
price
SERIES: Sales with sold price above asking price (Existing SFH)
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Homes sold above asking price - by county
page
31
56%
0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
November 2022: % sold above asking price
50%
SERIES: % of homes sold above asking price
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
List price vs. sales price
page
32
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50% Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
YTY%
Chg.
in
Price
Listing Price Sales Price
SERIES: List price growth and sales price growth
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Price growth moderates, top percentile volatile
page
33
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
2.3%
0.8% 0.6%
3.7%
2.1%
13.5%
5.6%
2.4%
0.4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100
Percentile
Year-over-Year Price Growth
Price growth by percentiles
page
34
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
YTY%
Chg.
in
Price
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100
SERIES: Percent Change in Price
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
California Market Velocity and Price Growth
page
35
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Market
Velocity
Price Growth Market Velocity (12 month trailing average)
SERIES: Market Velocity & Price Growth
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Mortgage payment growth remains above 50%
page
36
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan-16
Aug-16
Mar-17
Oct-17
May-18
Dec-18
Jul-19
Feb-20
Sep-20
Apr-21
Nov-21
Jun-22
YTY%
Chg.
California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment
Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth
3.07%
6.81%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
May-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
May-22
Sep-22
30 Yr. FRM
SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Mortgage payment growth remains above 50%
page
37
-0.6%
52.6%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
YTY%
Chg.
California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment
Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth
SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Inventory &
Active Listings
Inventory trending upward – remains historically tight
page
39
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
May-18
Jan-19
Sep-19
May-20
Jan-21
Sep-21
May-22
Months
of
Supply
November 2021: 1.6 Months; November 2022: 3.3 Months
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Inventory up slightly – back to pre-pandemic levels
page
40
0
1
2
3
4
5
Months
of
Supply
November 2021: 1.6 Months; November 2022: 3.3 Months
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Unsold Inventory increases as demands pulls back
page
41
2.2
3.6
3.3
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Months
of
Supply
Bay Area So CA Central Valley
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Active listings are up from a year ago
page
42
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
California Active Listings by Month
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Active listings following seasonal patterns
page
43
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
California Active Listings by Month
Active listings continue to increase from last
year by double-digits
page
44
80.2%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Year-over-Year % Chg
SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Supply remains tight as less new listings join the market
page
45
19,766
16,708 17,321
15,112
12,576
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
May-21
Sep-21
Jan-22
May-22
Sep-22
#
of
new
listings
SERIES: New Listings (Existing Single-Family Homes)
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
-16.8%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
YTY%
chg.
in
new
listings
New Listings (Existing Single-Family Homes)
New active listings below sales for first time in 8 months
page
46
15,112
12,576
23,383
13,065
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Sales vs. New Active Listings
New Active Sales
SERIES: New Listings vs. Sales (Existing Single-Family Homes)
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Overall supply level continues to improve as sales
momentum slows
page
47
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
yty% chg. in sales yty% chg. in new active listings yty% chg. in total active listings
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Active listings by region
page
48
2,209
8,321
3,923
652 1,048
4,090
15,884
7,234
1,118 1,362
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
San Francisco
Bay Area
Southern
California
Central Valley Central Coast Far North
Active
Listings
Nov-21 Nov-22
SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Inventory builds up in all regions as sales slow across
the state
page
49
-43.0% -46.9% -42.3% -43.5% -37.7%
85.2% 90.9% 84.4%
71.5%
30.0%
-80%
-40%
0%
40%
80%
120%
San Francisco
Bay Area
Southern
California
Central Valley Central Coast Far North
Year-to-Year
%
Chg
November 2022
Sales Active Listings
SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Housing supply improves in nearly all counties
page
50
SERIES: Active Listings (Existing Single-Family Homes)
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
158.5%
-35.6%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Yolo
Sutter
Yuba
San
Benito
Placer
Orange
Santa
Cruz
Riverside
Solano
San
Diego
Monterey
Sacramento
Contra-Costa
Amador
Santa
Clara
Alameda
San
Joaquin
Butte
Marin
Tulare
Humboldt
Kings
San
Mateo
Ventura
Los
Angeles
Kern
Merced
Fresno
San
Luis
Obispo
San
Francisco
Stanislaus
San
Bernardino
Sonoma
Mendocino
Madera
El
Dorado
Napa
Tehama
Shasta
Mariposa
Lake
Calaveras
Nevada
Santa
Barbara
Tuolumne
Siskiyou
Lassen
Plumas
Glenn
Mono
Del
Norte
YTY%
chg.
Active Listings (Existing Single-Family Homes)
Market Competitiveness
Time on market trends up as market becomes less
competitive
page
52
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Days
on
Market
California, November 2021: 11.0 Days; November 2022: 24.0 Days
SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median time on market by percentile
page
53
SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
12 11 11 11
13
11 12 13
18
11
24 24
26
23
26 26
22 23
30
24
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
Days
on
Market
Percentile
Median Time on Market
Nov-21 Nov-22
Sales-to-list price ratio by percentile
page
54
99.8% 99.9% 99.7%
99.2%
98.2%
98.7% 98.4%
98.0%
97.0%
96.7%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
100%
101%
102%
103%
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total
California Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Quintile
Nov-21 Nov-22
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median sales vs. list price growth $1M+ properties
page
55
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
YTY%
Chg.
in
Price
California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth
Listing Price Sales Price
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Reduced-Price Listings
page
56
-10%
-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1/1/2010
7/1/2010
1/1/2011
7/1/2011
1/1/2012
7/1/2012
1/1/2013
7/1/2013
1/1/2014
7/1/2014
1/1/2015
7/1/2015
1/1/2016
7/1/2016
1/1/2017
7/1/2017
1/1/2018
7/1/2018
1/1/2019
7/1/2019
1/1/2020
7/1/2020
1/1/2021
7/1/2021
1/1/2022
7/1/2022
Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 44.7%; Median Reduction Amount: -5.7%
Share Reduced Median Reduction
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Growth in Reduced-Price Listings
page
57
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1/1/2015
5/1/2015
9/1/2015
1/1/2016
5/1/2016
9/1/2016
1/1/2017
5/1/2017
9/1/2017
1/1/2018
5/1/2018
9/1/2018
1/1/2019
5/1/2019
9/1/2019
1/1/2020
5/1/2020
9/1/2020
1/1/2021
5/1/2021
9/1/2021
1/1/2022
5/1/2022
9/1/2022
YTY
%
chg.
Growth in Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: +19.2%
Growth in Median Reduction Amount: +0.6%
Share Reduced Median Reduction
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

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2022 November Monthly Housing Market Outlook

  • 1. California Housing Market Update Monthly Sales and Price Statistics November 2022
  • 2. Existing Home Sales % change -47.7% YTY California Housing Market Snapshot page 02 Price $777,500 -0.6% Y2Y Unsold Inventory Index 3.3 months +106.3% Y2Y Median Days on Market 24 days +118.2% Y2Y November 2022 CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® -21.2% YTD 237,740
  • 3. Existing Home Sales % change -46.9% YTY November 2022 Southern California Housing Snapshot page 3 Unsold Inventory Index 3.6 months Median Days on Market 24 days Sales Price to List Price Ratio 96.7% CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® -25.2% YTD Existing Home Price % change $750,000 0.0% YTY
  • 4. Existing Home Sales % change -43.5% YTY November 2022 Central Coast Housing Snapshot page 4 Unsold Inventory Index 3.1 months Median Days on Market 23 days Sales Price to List Price Ratio 96.6% CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® -27.8% YTD Existing Home Price % change $900,000 +0.1% YTY
  • 5. Existing Home Sales % change -42.3% YTY November 2022 Central Valley Housing Snapshot page 5 Unsold Inventory Index 3.3 months Median Days on Market 23 days Sales Price to List Price Ratio 96.5% CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® -18.5% YTD Existing Home Price % change $445,990 -1.3% YTY
  • 6. Existing Home Sales % change -43.0% YTY November 2022 Bay Area Housing Snapshot page 6 Unsold Inventory Index 2.2 months Median Days on Market 21 days Sales Price to List Price Ratio 97.4% CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® -25.0% YTD Existing Home Price % change $1,225,000 -5.8% YTY
  • 7. Existing Home Sales % change -37.7% YTY November 2022 Far North Housing Snapshot page 7 Unsold Inventory Index 4.7 months Median Days on Market 35 days Sales Price to List Price Ratio 95.9% CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® -13.9% YTD Existing Home Price % change $366,000 -3.7% YTY
  • 9. Sales bare the brunt of the most rapid growth in rates page 9 - 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Sep-15 May-16 Jan-17 Sep-17 May-18 Jan-19 Sep-19 May-20 Jan-21 Sep-21 May-22 California, November 2022 Sales: 237,740 Units, -21.2% YTD, -47.7% YTY, -13.2% MTM SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 10. Sales drop by nearly 50% the steepest year-over-year decline on record page 10 -47.7% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg) SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 11. Bay Area sales continue downward trend page 11 -43.0% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 May-22 Sep-22 YoY % chg. Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area) SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 12. So. California sales decline further page 12 -46.9% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 May-22 Sep-22 So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA) YoY % chg. SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 13. Central Valley sales slip steeply page 13 -42.3% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 May-22 Sep-22 Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley) YoY % chg. SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 14. CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Sales by Region page 14 -46.9% -43.5% -43.0% -42.3% -37.7% -37.7% -25.2% -27.8% -25.0% -18.5% -26.7% -13.9% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% November 2022 Home Sales Growth by Region YTY % YTD % Southern California 45% Central Valley 22% S.F. Bay Area 20% Other Counties 6% Central Coast 4% Far North 3% November 2022 Home Sales by Region
  • 15. Sales fall below last year by at least 41% in all price segments page 15 28% 44% 28% 27% 45% 28% $0 - $499k $500 - $999k $1M+ Share by Price Segment 2022 2021 SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® -41% -43% -42% -45% -45% -43% -48% -60% -40% -20% November 2022 (YTY% Chg.)
  • 16. Sales remain suppressed in all price points page 16 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Dec-21 Feb-22 Apr-22 Jun-22 Aug-22 Oct-22 YTY % Chg. in Sales $0 - $299k $300 - $399k $400 - $499k $500 - $749k $750 - $999k $1,000 - $1,999k $2,000k+ SERIES: Percent Change in Sales SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 17. Share of $1M+ home sales level off page 17 28.4% 28.0% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% % of Sales Share Gap $0-$499k $1,000k and up SERIES: Sales by Price Range SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® COVID-19 Outbreak
  • 18. Pending sales drop more than 50% though decline decelerates page 18 -50.6% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 19. Pending sales – remain sensitive to interest rates page 19 -50.6% -57.3% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales SFH Condo/Townhome SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 20. Pending sales decline across all price points page 20 -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales $0 - $299k $300 - $399k $400 - $499k $500 - $749k $750 - $999k $1,000 - $1,999k $2,000k+ SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 21. Pending sales sensitive to mortgage rate volatility page 21 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 MTM % Chg. in pending Sales $0 - $299k $300 - $399k $400 - $499k $500 - $749k $750 - $999k $1,000 - $1,999k $2,000k+ SERIES: Percent Change in Pending Sales SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 22. Market demand steps back as rates erode affordability page 22 SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® -7% -11% -15% -14% -11% -19% -17% -2.7% -5.5% 1.5% -9.4% -14.9% -17.5% -28.4% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% November 2022 (MTM% Chg.) Sales Pending
  • 23. Price
  • 24. California median home price softens, growth declines for first time in 30 months page 24 $- $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $800,000 $900,000 $1,000,000 Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Sep-15 May-16 Jan-17 Sep-17 May-18 Jan-19 Sep-19 May-20 Jan-21 Sep-21 May-22 California, November 2022: $777,500, -3.0% MTM, -0.6% YTY SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 25. Condo/Townhome median price moderates page 25 $0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $800,000 Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Sep-15 May-16 Jan-17 Sep-17 May-18 Jan-19 Sep-19 May-20 Jan-21 Sep-21 May-22 Median Price California, November 2021: $620,000, November 2022: $612,000 SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 26. Median price growth for condos and single-family homes decelerates page 26 -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% YTY% Chg. in Price Condo Single-Family Homes SERIES: Median Price of Existing SFH & Condo/Townhomes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 27. Price/Square foot leveling off page 27 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 PRICE PER SQ. FT. November 2022: $392, -1.8% MTM, -0.3% YTY SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 28. The Price/Square foot gap between home types remains wide page 28 $392 $530 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 PRICE PER SQ. FT. Diff. in Price/Sq. Ft. SFH Condo/Townhome SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes and Condo/Townhomes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 29. 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% 102% 104% 106% Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Sales-to-List Price Ratio November 2022: 96.7%, -0.6% MTM, -4.7% YTY Sales price-to-list price ratio dipped to the lowest level in over a decade page 29 SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 30. Share of homes sold above asking price back to “normal” page 30 59.2% 72.8% 22.9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 % of sales with price above asking price SERIES: Sales with sold price above asking price (Existing SFH) SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 31. Homes sold above asking price - by county page 31 56% 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% November 2022: % sold above asking price 50% SERIES: % of homes sold above asking price SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 32. List price vs. sales price page 32 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 YTY% Chg. in Price Listing Price Sales Price SERIES: List price growth and sales price growth SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 33. Price growth moderates, top percentile volatile page 33 SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® 2.3% 0.8% 0.6% 3.7% 2.1% 13.5% 5.6% 2.4% 0.4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Percentile Year-over-Year Price Growth
  • 34. Price growth by percentiles page 34 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% YTY% Chg. in Price 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 SERIES: Percent Change in Price SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 35. California Market Velocity and Price Growth page 35 -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Market Velocity Price Growth Market Velocity (12 month trailing average) SERIES: Market Velocity & Price Growth SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 36. Mortgage payment growth remains above 50% page 36 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17 Oct-17 May-18 Dec-18 Jul-19 Feb-20 Sep-20 Apr-21 Nov-21 Jun-22 YTY% Chg. California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth 3.07% 6.81% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 May-22 Sep-22 30 Yr. FRM SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 37. Mortgage payment growth remains above 50% page 37 -0.6% 52.6% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 YTY% Chg. California Median Price vs. Mortgage Payment Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 39. Inventory trending upward – remains historically tight page 39 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Sep-15 May-16 Jan-17 Sep-17 May-18 Jan-19 Sep-19 May-20 Jan-21 Sep-21 May-22 Months of Supply November 2021: 1.6 Months; November 2022: 3.3 Months SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 40. Inventory up slightly – back to pre-pandemic levels page 40 0 1 2 3 4 5 Months of Supply November 2021: 1.6 Months; November 2022: 3.3 Months SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 41. Unsold Inventory increases as demands pulls back page 41 2.2 3.6 3.3 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Months of Supply Bay Area So CA Central Valley SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 42. CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Active listings are up from a year ago page 42 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 California Active Listings by Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
  • 43. CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Active listings following seasonal patterns page 43 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 California Active Listings by Month
  • 44. Active listings continue to increase from last year by double-digits page 44 80.2% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Year-over-Year % Chg SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 45. Supply remains tight as less new listings join the market page 45 19,766 16,708 17,321 15,112 12,576 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 May-22 Sep-22 # of new listings SERIES: New Listings (Existing Single-Family Homes) SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® -16.8% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 YTY% chg. in new listings New Listings (Existing Single-Family Homes)
  • 46. New active listings below sales for first time in 8 months page 46 15,112 12,576 23,383 13,065 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Sales vs. New Active Listings New Active Sales SERIES: New Listings vs. Sales (Existing Single-Family Homes) SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 47. Overall supply level continues to improve as sales momentum slows page 47 -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% yty% chg. in sales yty% chg. in new active listings yty% chg. in total active listings SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 48. Active listings by region page 48 2,209 8,321 3,923 652 1,048 4,090 15,884 7,234 1,118 1,362 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley Central Coast Far North Active Listings Nov-21 Nov-22 SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 49. Inventory builds up in all regions as sales slow across the state page 49 -43.0% -46.9% -42.3% -43.5% -37.7% 85.2% 90.9% 84.4% 71.5% 30.0% -80% -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley Central Coast Far North Year-to-Year % Chg November 2022 Sales Active Listings SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 50. Housing supply improves in nearly all counties page 50 SERIES: Active Listings (Existing Single-Family Homes) SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® 158.5% -35.6% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% Yolo Sutter Yuba San Benito Placer Orange Santa Cruz Riverside Solano San Diego Monterey Sacramento Contra-Costa Amador Santa Clara Alameda San Joaquin Butte Marin Tulare Humboldt Kings San Mateo Ventura Los Angeles Kern Merced Fresno San Luis Obispo San Francisco Stanislaus San Bernardino Sonoma Mendocino Madera El Dorado Napa Tehama Shasta Mariposa Lake Calaveras Nevada Santa Barbara Tuolumne Siskiyou Lassen Plumas Glenn Mono Del Norte YTY% chg. Active Listings (Existing Single-Family Homes)
  • 52. Time on market trends up as market becomes less competitive page 52 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Days on Market California, November 2021: 11.0 Days; November 2022: 24.0 Days SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 53. Median time on market by percentile page 53 SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® 12 11 11 11 13 11 12 13 18 11 24 24 26 23 26 26 22 23 30 24 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total Days on Market Percentile Median Time on Market Nov-21 Nov-22
  • 54. Sales-to-list price ratio by percentile page 54 99.8% 99.9% 99.7% 99.2% 98.2% 98.7% 98.4% 98.0% 97.0% 96.7% 94% 95% 96% 97% 98% 99% 100% 101% 102% 103% 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100 80-85 86-90 91-95 96-100 Total California Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Quintile Nov-21 Nov-22 SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 55. Median sales vs. list price growth $1M+ properties page 55 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 YTY% Chg. in Price California Median Sales vs. List Price Growth Listing Price Sales Price SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  • 57. Growth in Reduced-Price Listings page 57 -0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 1/1/2015 5/1/2015 9/1/2015 1/1/2016 5/1/2016 9/1/2016 1/1/2017 5/1/2017 9/1/2017 1/1/2018 5/1/2018 9/1/2018 1/1/2019 5/1/2019 9/1/2019 1/1/2020 5/1/2020 9/1/2020 1/1/2021 5/1/2021 9/1/2021 1/1/2022 5/1/2022 9/1/2022 YTY % chg. Growth in Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: +19.2% Growth in Median Reduction Amount: +0.6% Share Reduced Median Reduction SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®