20150904 "A Few Words About 'In The Wet' by Nevil Shute"
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The document summarizes a talk given about Nevil Shute's novel "In the Wet" at an international conference. It discusses several concepts from the novel, including the proposed multiple vote system, currency conversions, population predictions, and aircraft technology projections. It analyzes how accurate Shute's predictions were by comparing the world of the novel to present day realities.
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20150904 "A Few Words About 'In The Wet' by Nevil Shute"
- 1. A Few Words about “In The Wet” by Nevil Shute 9th International Nevil Shute Conference Balliol College, Oxford, UK David B. Horvath September 4, 2015
- 2. Contact Information Copyright © 2015, David B. Horvath, CCP — All Rights Reserved The Author can be contacted at: 504 Longbotham Drive, Upper Chichester, Pennsylvania 19014-2502, USA Phone: +1-610-859-8826 Email: dhorvath@cobs.com Web: http://www.cobs.com/ All trademarks and servicemarks are the property of their respective owners.
- 3. Abstract • I started reading Nevil Shute before the days of easy web searches. I found a lot of strange words and concepts for which I could not find referents. That doesn't mean I didn't enjoy them, just that they were even more exotic. As I am rereading the books as part of our "local" club, of which Laura is a member, I've started researching those topics. For "In the Wet", I researched a number of items and shared them with the group. Those were just informal notes; I've expanded them for this talk. • This book looks forward in time. But some of the concepts discussed seem to be tied to 1953. When is "now" in the book? How correct was Shute? • The idea of multiple votes per person is a big part of this book. I'll talk about some of the reasons. One thing that caught me was the "high-income" vote. What is/was/will-be 5000 pounds worth? How is that number meaningful to us today? • Shute also predicted population and aircraft technology. How accurate was he? • Depending on how our timing works out, I'll review the trips taken as described (or hinted at) in the book. • I will also review a few other thoughts about the book. 3
- 4. 4 Introductions • My Background • Timing • Voting • Currency • Population • Aircraft • Trips • Other Thoughts • Q&A
- 5. 5 My Background • IT Weenie, IT Author, IT Adjunct Instructor • Visited Australia in 1994 – speaker at IT Conference • Also Presented workshops and seminars in France, US, and Canada. • Undergraduate: Computer and Information Sciences, Temple Univ. • Graduate: Organizational Dynamics, University of Pennsylvania • Most of my career was in consulting • Private Pilot License, ASEL, January 2009 • Started reading Shute in High School (OTB) • Added to collection during trips • Started “deep-dive” while re-reading for book club • Also visited most of Europe; been to Mexico, New Zealand, and Egypt • Third time that Laura (and Mary) has heard this material
- 6. 6 Timing • When does the book take place? • 1953: Copyright and notes by Pastor • Ca 1983: 1982 shilling being quite new • This becomes important later on • Was Shute basing facts on 1953 or projecting for 1983? • How did his future turn out? • Currency • Population • Geopolitical • Aircraft technology
- 7. 7 Voting • "Evils" of one person/one vote • Everyone really isn't equal but in voting they are treated that way. • Leads towards "bread and circuses“ • panem et circenses – attributed to Juvenal's Satire X (circa 100 A.D., Rome) • Refers to the “Grain Dole” and “Public Games” • "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years." -- Alexis De Tocqueville, 1805-1859 (Democracy in America, published in 1835) • Politicians providing from the treasury to get votes
- 8. 8 Voting • British system was not always “Equal” • Voter representation differed by locale (urban, rural, etc.). • Limited by age, wealth, gender, national origin, and conviction status • Limitations remain (primarily age, citizenship, and prisoner status) • Plural voting prohibited in 1948 • American system was not always “Equal” • Voter requirements were decided by each State • Limited by age, wealth, gender, race, national origin, and felon status • Basis for Electoral College, population does not directly elect President • Limitations remain (primarily age, citizenship, and felon status) • Of course, there is the “vote early, vote often” meme • Many similarities between the two nations' history of voting
- 9. 9 Voting • Multi-vote system • Most of the Commonwealth (but not England) • Australia & Canada mentioned specifically • A total of 7 Votes Possible • Supposed to vest more votes with “better” people • Most of the votes are easy to understand
- 10. 10 Voting • How many votes would you get? • Basic – everyone gets at majority • Education – university degree, commissioned officer, solicitor or doctor • Foreign Travel – earning living outside Australia for two years (WW II service counted) • Family – raise two children to age of 14 without getting divorced • Achievement – earned income over “5000/year “ • Church Official – minister, warden, etc. of recognized Christian church • Queen's – at her pleasure, like a decoration or medal
- 11. 11 Currency • “5000/year” for the Achievement Vote • What does that really mean? • Did Shute mean GBP or AUP? • I originally believed he was talking AUP and based on 1953 consumer values, now I'm not so sure – could have been GBP too. • Conversion rate is 1.559 AUP to 1 GBP • Was he using 1953 values or projected 1983? • Difficult to determine with conversion rates, inflation, currency changes • Conversion from AUP to AUD complicates (1967) • Originally converted everything to USD to give plain meaning to myself and our book club.
- 12. 12 Currency • What does "5000/year" mean in Your Currency? All values expressed in $US based on June 19 rate for year year AUP/D 1953 AUP/D 1983 GBP 1953 GBP 1983 1953 8,929 13,925 1983 8,753 7,639 2013 137,234 26,547 182,997 22,062 All values expressed in GBP based on June 19 rate for year year AUP/D 1953 AUP/D 1983 GBP 1953 GBP 1983 1953 3,206 5,000 1983 5,729 5,000 2013 87,606 16,947 116,820 14,084 All values expressed in EUR based on June 19 rate for year year AUP/D 1953 AUP/D 1983 GBP 1953 GBP 1983 1953 8,505 13,265 1983 10,171 8,876 2013 102,368 19,802 136,504 16,457 10 August 1953 is oldest EUR conversion rate available
- 13. 13 Currency • Would you get the “Achievement” vote? • No need to answer out loud. • I can show my work if you’re really interested. • Sources listed at the end
- 14. 14 Population • England was depopulating 1M/year while Commonwealth countries growing: • Most going to Canada, then Australia/NZ, remainder to Africa/Colonies • Demographics Change • Immigrants tend to be highly motivated, more self sufficient ("Right Wing in their views") • Impacts balance of power between “Colonies” and “Mother England” • “I think I like Australia because it’s new” – that was my impression of the country when we were there • Undesired Immigrants today. Population data from Wiki demographics, actual year may vary Country/Dates 1953 1983 1983 Shute 2011 England 39 46 38 53 Australia 9 15 27 22 Canada 14 25 32 33 Total 61 86 97 109
- 15. 15 Geopolitics Impact Population Movements • Book published 7 years before Crisis in Belgian Congo • Independent Nations: • Keyna, 1963 (Nairobi and Nanyuki Nyeri) • Malta, 1964 • Kiribati, 1979 (Christmas Island) • There is another “Christmas Island” near Singapore now part of Australia, 1957 • Ceylon/Sri Lanka (Ratmalana/Colombo): • Independent member of Commonwealth, 1948 • Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka, 1972 • Civil War ca 1983-2009 • Keeling Cocos islands transferred to Australia, 1955
- 16. 16 Aircraft • Flight Specifications for the de Havilland 316 “Ceres”: • Cruise: 500 KT • Cruising Altitude: 50,000 FT MSL/QNH • Approximately 5,000 NM range • Carrying: • 20 Passengers, or • 3 Tons of Mail (6,000 or 6,720 pounds for short or long ton respectively) • “Amazing” capabilities for 1953 • Comparable planes on drawing boards • This plane was “new” ca. 1983 • How did 1983 turn out in reality?
- 17. 17 Aircraft • Aircraft Comparisons (Ceres does appear twice) Plane Cruise KT Cruise Alt FT Service Ceiling FT Range NM Max t/o LBS Mixed class PAX Year Model Introduced Notes HP 81 Hermes 304 24500 1739 86,000 82 1945 DC-6B 274 25000 4100 107,000 54 1946 B377 Stratocruiser 296 32000 3650 148,000 84 1947 DH 106 Comet 1 400 42000 1300 110,000 44 1951 L-1049 Super Connie 264 25700 4478 120,000 106 1951 Bristol Britannia 345 24000 3852 185,000 139 1952 Avro Vulcan B.1 493 45000 55000 1166 170,000 N/A 1952 Vickers 1000 450 3600 231,000 150 1952 MoS requirement Avro Atlantic 522 45000 3478 200,000 113 1953 Design only DH 316 Ceres 500 50000 5000 20 1953 range estimated B707 (367-80) 478 43000 3530 190,000 N/A 1954 DC-7C 312 28400 4870 143,000 105 1956 L-188 Electra 324 32000 1913 113,000 98 1957 B707-320B 527 36000 5356 333,600 147 1958 DH 106 Comet 2 450 42000 2300 120,000 44 1958 Concorde 1165 60000 3900 412,000 120 1969 L-1011-500 525 30000 5345 510,000 246 1978 B747-300 481 35000 6700 833,000 412 1982 DH 316 Ceres 500 50000 5000 20 1983 range estimated B747-400 495 35000 43000 7670 910,000 416 1989 A380-800 500 43000 9755 1,200,000 525 2005
- 18. 18 Aircraft • VIP accommodations are different than commercial: • The Boeing 707-200B (VC-137C, SAM 26000 and 27000) carried 40 passengers (or 26,200 pounds cargo) and 8 crew. • The DH 316 carried 20 passengers (or about 6,000 pounds cargo) and 8 crew (including 2 cabin attendants) • The Boeing 747-200B (VC-25A, SAM 28000) "Air Force One" carries 70 passengers and 26 crew. • Tradeoffs between speed, altitude, range, and capacity. DH 316 went higher/faster but with fewer passengers. • There was no real DH 316 ever designed (at least none I could find) • Discussion boards suggest Avro Atlantic 722 as plane Shute was writing about • There were other planes that could fit.
- 19. 19 Aircraft (Popular Mechanics, October 1953) • “High-bypass” engines are common today and have much higher fuel efficiency that plain “turbo-jets” • 1952 Ministry of Supply requirement • Canceled in 1955 after £2.3 million spent
- 20. 20 Aircraft (Popular Mechanics, October 1953)
- 22. 22 The Trips • As described in the book Plane Trip (name/date/etc) Start Stop Over Destination Notes Sugar Pre-11/12 Edmonton, Vancouver, Ottawa white waltham, England Edmonton, RCAF Vancouver, RCAF Proving flight Sugar Vancover/Ottawa/WW Vancouver, RCAF Ottawa white waltham, England Sugar 11/12 Edmonton, Vancouver, Ottawa white waltham, England Edmonton, RCAF Vancouver, RCAF Dam dedication in Vancouver Sugar 11/13 Vancover/Ottawa Vancouver, RCAF Ottawa Not described Tare Prince Charles to Ottawa white waltham, England Ottawa Sugar Prince Charles to England Ottawa white waltham, England Tare Queen to Canberra Ottawa Vancouver Christmas Island/Kiribati Bad food on island Tare Queen to Canberra continued Christmas Island/Kiribati Canberra Tare Canberra/Melbourne Canberra Berwick, Melbourne Visit former PMCalwell Tare Melbourne/Canberra Berwick, melbourne Canberra Tare Queen back to London Canberra Ratmalana/Colombo WW/Yorkshire Bad weather, diversion to LHR denied Tare Reposition back to WW Driffield Yorkshire white waltham, England Sugar 12/11 Prince Charles to Ottawa white waltham, England Ottawa With family Tare Havants (Princess Anne) to Kenya white waltham, England Nairobi Nanyuki Nyeri Kenya Sugar Canadian Gov General to London Ottawa white waltham, England No real details; Field Marshall Sir Thomas Forrest Tare Reposition back to WW Nanyuki Nyeri Kenya Nairobi white waltham, England Overnight at Nairobi Tare 12/25 to Canberra white waltham, England Ratmalana/Colombo Canberra That which will not be discussed Sugar Reposition back to Ottawa white waltham, England Ottawa Not described Sugar Prince Charles to Canbera Ottawa Christmas Island/Kiribati Canberra No details, after government resigned Tare Reposition to get Princess Anne Canberra Keeling Cocos islands Nanyuki Nyeri Kenya Planned, story ends before flown
- 23. 23 The Trips • I really hope I have Internet access to Google Earth • Or I can fall back to Google Maps • https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?hl=en&hl=en&authuser=0&authuser=0&m • As the last attempt, there are Google Maps that I grabbed (Copyright Google and map data providers, trip information mashup mine). • Google Earth is the best projection and really represents how the planes flew
- 24. 24 The Trips • Australian Map View: • Traditional “North Up” View:
- 25. 25 The Trips • Less Overlap, Easier to Review, North Up View
- 26. 26 The Trips – North Up Map View (Easier to Review?) • Minimal Overlap, North Up, Map View, Easier to Review
- 27. 27 The Trips • They really covered a lot of ground. • The KML (Google Map/Earth drawing language) code is available at http://www.cobs.com/20131007KML.kml • I have started mapping out Shute's other books: • Flight of Fancy was provided for Beall Fowler's Wednesday session • Trustee mapped out. • Have notes on ATLA • Played out Pied Piper on Google Maps • And am considering OTB
- 28. 28 The Trips • Shute clearly knew his maps and navigation. • Slide Rule: His travels and Airspeed, Ltd shipments • Flight of Fancy: trip to Australia • Trustee: Sea navigation • He was a pilot • I can imagine him spending time with maps and rulers while writing his books
- 29. 29 Other Thoughts • Two stories in this book: • Stevie Figgons in the "now” • David "N" Anderson 30 years in the future • Intertwined with: • the cattle crew (David’s parents) • the new homes being built on Yarrow Road in Letchworth near Canberra • Told by Rev. Hargreaves, a "bush brother“ • Writing it down before he forgets, a plot item in a few Shute books • Influences David’s family and their future, based on what he "learned" during that long night.
- 30. 30 Other Thoughts • Chinaman, Opium, Buddhism, Animals coming in • Strange but in a way acceptable • Discrimination, facing head on; • Color is less of an issue in England than the colonies • This and opposite theme appears in other Shute books • Look at outback wife's reaction to a white marrying an Aborigine in this book • How the family reacts to those relationships in BTBS • How the Americans in a rural town react in BTBS • Reactions in Chequer Board and RTB
- 31. 31 Other Thoughts • Royalty vs Elected Officials • Socialism vs Capitalism • Not communism since “Russian war” • No other details provided • Obviously not WW III (along the lines of “On The Beach”) • Disconnected politicians (Very pistol, a flare gun used to announce arrival to land, on jet) • President Bush and Bar Code Scanners • "England has been going through a bad patch for the last forty years" – looking back from 1983.
- 32. 32 Other Thoughts • Empty houses • Then 1953 • Was happening in England as part of “New Town” model post WWII. • Then 1983 • “There are masses of them in the north. In the suburbs, mostly, fairly far out from the centre of the towns—that’s where you find them. People move in towards the centre as the houses become empty, because the bus fares are less. Places like Nottingham and Darlington, every other house is empty in the outer suburbs.” • Versus now • Look at places like Detroit and the condominiums in Miami.
- 33. 33 Other Thoughts • Military Pilot prohibited landing at Civilian Airport later used as plot item in “Seven Days in May”: • Book by Fletcher Knebel, 1963 • Movie with Kirk Douglas/Burt Lancaster/Ava Gardner, 1964 • housey-housey is actually a Bingo/lotto game
- 34. 34 Concluding Thoughts • Shute’s books largely based on his personal experience providing a background of reality. • Written from viewpoint of Engineer and Pilot • They speak to me • Slide Rule: • Interaction with test pilots • Navigation and round-the-world flights getting lost (pre-Earhart) • 1937 sale of Airspeed Envoy for the King’s Flight and need for steward in a 4-passenger plane • Flight of Fancy • Technically, not written by Shute, but is about him • Journey from England to Australia in a small plane
- 35. 35 Wrap Up Questions and Answers ?! ?! ?! ?! ? ? ? ? ! ! ! !
- 36. 36 References • http://fxtop.com/en/currency-converter-past.php?A=1&C1=AUD&C2=USD&DD=19&MM=06&Y • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_dollar • http://www.kqed.org/assets/pdf/education/digitalmedia/us-voting-rights-timeline.pdf • http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/Pages/inflation/calculator/index1.aspx • http://www.rba.gov.au/calculator/annualDecimal.html • https://www.fairwork.gov.au/pay/national-minimum-wage/pages/default.aspx • http://guides.slv.vic.gov.au/content.php?pid=14258&sid=544195 • http://uk.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20100315071014AA4sFWm • http://www.measuringworth.com/datasets/ukearncpi/result2.php • Alexis De Tocqueville, Democracy in America, published in 1835: http://www.uscourtsgov.info/Alexis%20De%20Tocqueville.htm • FAA "Pilot's Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge" (FAA-H-8083-25A)
Editor's Notes
- My original notes for the June 23, 2013 “NJ/NY/PA//MA” Shute Book Club – reading “In the Wet” . Realize these are crude. Two stories -- Stevie Figgons in the "now" (ca 1953 based on pastor, 1953 copyright) and David "N" Anderson 30 (?, ca 1983 -- 1982 shilling "quite new") years in the future, the stories intertwine with the crew running cattle (Jock and Mary Anderson) and the new development being built on Yarrow Road in Letchworth near Canberra. Told by Rev. Hargreaves, a "bush brother". Chinaman, Opium, Buddhism, Animals coming in Discrimination, facing head on; apparently color is less of an issue in England than the colonies. "Evils" of one man/one vote -- everyone really isn't equal but in voting they are treated that way. Leads towards "bread and circuses". Multi-vote system (most of the commonwealth countries except for England; Australia & Canada mentioned specifically): Basic -- everyone gets at majority Education -- University degree, commissioned officer, solicitor or doctor Foreign Travel -- earning living outside Australia for two years (WW II service counted) Family -- raise two children to age of 14 without getting divorced Achievement -- earned income over 5000 /year 5000AUD would be 15256 AUD/year 205% inflation 1983-2013 or 81100 AUD/year based on 1522% inflation 1953-2013 5000GBP = 12185 GBP 1983-2013 or 100,673 GBP 1953-2013 483GBP was average gross wages for English manual worker 1953, 1222 AUD "basic wage" Victoria 1953. GBP/USD 1.5482 and AUD/USD 0.9282 as of 6/19/2013 (1 GBP = 1.54 USD) Church Official -- minister, warden, etc. of recognized Christian church Queen's -- at her pleasure, like a decoration or medal Balance of power between "colonies" and "mother England". Royalty vs Elected Officials. Socialism (labour) vs Capitalism (Liberal) Not communism since Russian war (nothing more mentioned, but obviously not WW III) Disconnected politicians (requiring Very pistol -- flare gun on jet) Pastor influencing family and their future, based on what he "learned" during that long night. Writing it down before he forgets. We've seen that plot item in a few Shute books... 27M people in Australia (22.32M 2011) 32M people in Canada and growing (34.48M 2011) 38M people in England going down 1M/year, 300K->Australia/NZ, 400K-> Canada, rest to Africa/Colonies (53.01M 2011) Immigrants tend to be highly motivated, more self sufficient ("Right Wing in their views"). Ceres cruises at 500 Kt, 50,000 feet, 5000 NM range B747-400 cruises at 493 Kt, 35,000 feet, 7260 NM range A380-800 cruises at 510 Kt, 43,000 feet service/41000 pressurization, 8500 NM range B707 (367-80) cruises at 478 Kt, 43,000 feet service, 3069 NM range (1954 prototype) B707-320B cruises at 527 Kt, 36,000 feet service, 5356 NM range Comet 1: 400Kt, 42,000 feet, 1300 NM, 1951 Comet 4: 450Kt, 42,000 feet, 2802 NM, 1958 Concorde, 1165Kt, 60,000 feet service, 3900 NM, 1969 "England has been going through a bad patch for the last forty years" -- looking back from 1983. he was just a boy during the "1970 crash" -- late teens maybe. 1800AUD = 2700 GBP in 198x in the book Marrying at 24/20 (male/female), having 4 or 5 kids Military Pilot vs Civil Licensed Pilot also used as plot item in "Seven Days in May".by Fletcher Knebel, 1963 and Movie with Kirk Douglas/Burt Lancaster housey-housey = Bingo/lotto “I think I like Australia because it’s new,†-- that was my impression of the country when we were there.
- Europe: not Scotland, Norway, Finland, Spain (almost born there), Portugal. Not eastern Europe. 2013: Paris, Normandy, Brittany, St Michael’s. 2012: 3000 miles in 21 days in 6 countries. 2007 England/Wales (after Egypt). 1999 Upenn class in England, Ireland (Shannon to Dublin), Germany, etc. US: not Alaska, Dakotas. Canada: Vancouver, Winterpeg, Calgary/Banff, Niagara, Ottawa, Montreal, Quebec City
- I first saw the Tocqueville quote at a small amusement park “Knoebels”. We could hold an entire session on this slide and American politics…
- England/Wales 1780: 3% were entitled Reform Act of 1832: males, occupied property with annual value of #10 (14% of males eligible, in theory 7% of total population) Reform act of 1870: 40% of males (20% of pop) Reform act of 1884: all male house owners... 1918 All men over 21 (property restriction removed) added vote for women over 30 with property 1928 women over 21 (equal terms as men) 1969 Age 18 1948 Plural Voting prohibited (previously were allowed to vote in elections for home, university, and secondary property constituencies http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/pathways/citizenship/struggle_democracy/getting_vote.htm http://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/higher/history/democracy/changes/revision/2/
- I spent a fair amount of time pondering this, researching, calculating… Had to convert to USD and project to “today” in order to get feel for meaning. GBP/USD exchange looks strange but there were serious devaluations of the GBP to USD.
- The conversions are based on historic USD to GBP/EUR conversion. Bi-directionality is confirmed by GBP "5,000" values.
- Look at the problems in Calais...
- Sevice vs Cruise altitudes are weight dependent The service ceiling is the maximum usable altitude of an aircraft. Specifically, it is the density altitude at which flying in a clean configuration, at the best rate of climb airspeed for that altitude and with all engines operating and producing maximum continuous power, will produce a given rate of climb (usually 100 feet per minute climb or 30 metres per minute, and 500 feet per minute climb for jet airplanes). FAA "Pilot's Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge" (FAA-H-8083-25A) There is also an optimum cruise altitude for a particular aircraft type and conditions including payload weight, center of gravity, air temperature, humidity, and speed. This altitude is usually where the higher ground speeds, the increase in drag power, and the decrease in engine power and efficiency at higher altitudes are balanced. Multiple definitions of range (based on cargo weight, absolute range, range with IFR reserves)
- Shute seems to like to answer the source of the “omnipotent Narrator”
- Ava Gardner had been in OTB. Don’t know if Knebel had read ITW
- How much of this is said these days? Democrat vs Republican, Left vs Right, Progressive vs Conservative
- Entire towers in Miami with only one occupied unit. Entire blocks in Detroit empty, areas having city services withdrawn, and yet we don’t seem to have a large increase in homeless living under highway overpasses. Entire sections of Cleveland where the houses have been knocked down and are reverting to “wild”.
- I really like google. When I read the book the first time, I had no idea what housey-housey was. Having the context brings more meaning.
- In March 1937 we were honoured by an order for an Airspeed Envoy for the King’s Flight, for the personal use of His Majesty and the Royal Family. This was the largest aeroplane that the King’s Flight had acquired to that date, and we made a special effort over the finish of the aircraft, as might be supposed. The machine was painted in deep crimson and royal blue and had seats for four passengers, with accommodation for pilot, wireless operator, and steward. When Wing Commander Fielden, the Captain of the King’s Flight, came to see me about the specification of the aircraft I questioned the necessity for carrying a steward in a vehicle that was little larger in accommodation than a motor car, and in which the passengers were unlikely to travel for longer than two or three hours. In explanation I received a brief account of the fatigue that royal personages must endure, a disturbing picture of radiant people who had opened a Town Hall and shaken a thousand hands smiling and waving to the crowd as they got into the aeroplane that was to take them home, and collapsing in a coma of fatigue directly the door was shut, grey faced and utterly exhausted. I said no more about the steward.