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Brian Vaasjo, President & CEO
Stuart Lee, SVP Finance & CFO
CAPITAL POWER
Q4/14 and 2014 year-end
Analyst Conference Call
February 23, 2015
Certain information in this presentation and in responses to questions contains
forward-looking information. Actual results could differ materially from
conclusions, forecasts or projections in the forward-looking information, and
certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing conclusions or
making forecasts or projections as reflected in the forward-looking information.
Additional information about the material factors and risks that could cause
actual results to differ materially from the conclusions, forecasts or projections
in the forward-looking information and the material factors or assumptions that
were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as
reflected in the forward-looking information are disclosed on page 17 of this
presentation and in the Company’s annual 2014 Management’s Discussion and
Analysis (MD&A) prepared as of February 20, 2015 which has been filed on
SEDAR (www.sedar.com).
Forward-looking information
Cautionary statement
2
The Company uses (i) earnings before finance expense, income tax expense,
depreciation and amortization, impairments, foreign exchange gains or losses, and gains
on disposals (adjusted EBITDA), (ii) funds from operations (FFO), (iii) normalized
earnings attributable to common shareholders, and (iv) normalized earnings per share as
financial performance measures.
These terms are not defined financial measures according to GAAP and do not have
standardized meanings prescribed by GAAP and, therefore, are unlikely to be
comparable to similar measures used by other enterprises. These measures should not
be considered alternatives to net income, net income attributable to shareholders of the
Company, net cash flows from operating activities or other measures of financial
performance calculated in accordance with GAAP. Rather, these measures are provided
to complement GAAP measures in the analysis of the Company’s results of operations
from management’s perspective.
Reconciliations of these Non-GAAP financial measures are contained in the Company’s
Management’s Discussion and Analysis prepared as of February 20, 2015 for the year
ended December 31, 2014, which is available under the Company’s profile on SEDAR at
SEDAR.com and on the Company’s website at capitalpower.com.
Non-GAAP financial measures
3
2014 Highlights
 Completed final stages of construction with ENMAX on the
Shepard Energy Centre with expected COD in Q1/15
 Completed project financing and commenced construction of
the K2 Wind project (1/3 ownership of 270 MW project) with
expected COD in mid-2015
 Executed agreements with ENMAX to develop, construct and
operate the Genesee 4 &5 project; all major regulatory
approvals received in Jan/15 to proceed with construction
 Acquired a portfolio of wind and solar development sites in the
U.S. that will provide solid foundation for growth
 Announced Company’s first common share dividend increase,
a 7.9% increase in the annual dividend effective with Q3/14
dividend
4
Plant availability Q4/14 Q4/13
Alberta
commercial plants
Genesee 3 74% 98%
Keephills 3 92% 99%
Clover Bar 90% 91%
Joffre 82% 85%
Halkirk 98% 99%
Alberta contracted
plants
Genesee 1 100% 100%
Genesee 2 100% 95%
Ontario and BC
contracted plants
Island
Generation 100% 99%
Kingsbridge 1 96% 94%
Port Dover &
Nanticoke 97% 95%
Quality Wind 98% 98%
US contracted
plants
Roxboro 100% 98%
Southport 88% 91%
Macho Springs 99% N/A
Average 94% 93%(1)
Q4/14 Operating performance
 Strong operating
performance with
average plant
availability of 94% in
Q4/14; compared
with 93% in Q4/13
 74% availability at
Genesee 3 due to a
27-day planned
outage in Sep-
Oct/14
(1) Q4/13 Average includes plant availability for U.S. commercial plants that were divested in Nov/13.
5
6
Proven track record of high fleet availability
Plant availability consistently 90%+ in past 6 years
Generation
(GWh)
Generation Average plant availability
96%
90%
92%
91%
93%
95%
94%
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015T
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Q4/14 Financial review
 Generated $102M of FFO in Q4/14 in-line with expectations
 Normalized EPS of $0.20 in Q4/14 was lower than expected due to
the non-cash impact of 2014 deferred tax expenses and lower wind
generation at Quality Wind and Port Dover & Nanticoke
 Despite a 39% decline in average AB power prices in Q4 YOY,
hedging program captured a 93% higher realized average power
price versus spot compared with 31% in Q4/13
7
Portfolio optimization Q4/14 Q4/13
AB spot power price average (MW/h) $30 $49
Realized power price(1) (MW/h) $58 $64
% realized above spot power price 93% 31%
(1) Realized power price is the average price realized on the Company’s commercial contracted sales and portfolio optimization activities in Alberta.
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Average AB spot power price Capital Power captured AB price
Alberta power market trading
 Portfolio optimization activities focused on managing exposure to
commodity risks, reducing volatility and creating incremental value
Average realized power price has exceeded spot power prices
by 16% on average over the past 5 years
2010 2011 2012 2013
($/MWh)
2014
8
$M, except per share amounts Q4/14 Q4/13 Change
Revenues $432 $327 32%
Adjusted EBITDA (before mark-to-market)(1) $104 $102 2%
Basic earnings per share $0.40 $0.89 (55%)
Normalized earnings per share $0.20 $0.40 (50%)
Funds from operations $102 $110 (7%)
Financial performance – Q4/14
Normalized EPS lower than Q4/13 primarily due to higher
coal costs for the AB contracted plants and the non-cash
impact of 2014 deferred tax expenses
(1) Before unrealized changes in fair value of commodity derivatives and emission credits of $37M and $17M for Q4/14 and Q4/13, respectively.
9
$M, except per share amounts 2014 2013 Change
Revenues $1,228 $1,393 (12%)
Adjusted EBITDA (before mark-to-market)(1) $387 $483 (20%)
Basic earnings per share $0.28 $2.13 (87%)
Normalized earnings per share $0.72 $1.74 (59%)
Funds from operations $362 $426 (15%)
Financial performance – 2014
Generated $362M in funds from operations that was in-line
with 2014 financial target of $360 to $400 million
(1) Before unrealized changes in fair value of commodity derivatives and emission credits of $36M and $26M for 2014 and 2013, respectively.
10
Alberta power price outlook
11
 Saw a sharp decline in 2015 forward prices in late Jan 2015 when
spot prices began to decline, Shepard Energy Centre reaching
material generation levels and declining natural gas prices
Financial outlook
 Due to a significant decline in global oil prices that is expected to
lower both economic and power demand growth in AB, along with
lower forward natural gas prices for 2015, AB power forward prices
have recently declined
 2015 AB power forwards are currently in mid-$30/MWh range, which
is lower than our original forecast assumption of $44/MWh
 Actions taken over the last several years including our hedging and
cost reduction programs anticipated lower pricing in 2015
 AB baseload position for 2015 is fully hedged in the mid-$50/MWh
 2015 FFO expectation remains the same but in the lower end of
$365M to $415M guidance range
 Company’s financial strength is based on the foundation of strong
contracted cash flow which is not impacted by changing AB power
prices – remain confident in our credit rating and dividend growth
outlook
12
2014 Performance & 2015 targets
13
Operational and financial targets
95% 95% 94%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
2014T 2014 2015T
Plant availability
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
2014T 2014 2015T
Funds from operations($M)
$362
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
2014T 2014 2015T
Plant operating &
maintenance expenses
$165 - $185 $185
($M)
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
2014T 2014 2015T
$85
$75
Sustaining capex
($M)
$65
$180 - $200 $360 - $400 $365 - $415
2015 Development & construction targets
14
On-time, on-budget and safe development of committed projects
K2 Wind (Ontario)
 Complete construction for
COD in mid-2015
Genesee 4&5 (Alberta)
 Transition from development
to construction
(1) Merchant margin is calculated using $40/MWh and $70/MWh and is based on hedge position as at December 31, 2014.
(2) Based on existing plants plus committed development projects. Financial obligations include interest payments (including interest during
construction), sustaining capital expenditures and general & administration expenses.
(3) Dividends include common dividends, preferred dividends and CPLP distributions.
Operating margin(1) to financial obligations(2) and dividends(3)
50%
100%
150%
200%
2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
Contracted +
merchant ($40/MWh)
Contracted +
merchant ($70/MWh)
Contracted margin
Financial obligations & dividends fully
covered by contracted cash flow
15
QUESTIONS?
Forward-looking information or statements included in this presentation and in responses to questions on the analyst conference call are provided to inform the
Company’s shareholders and potential investors about management’s assessment of Capital Power’s future plans and operations. This information may not be
appropriate for other purposes. The forward-looking information in this presentation is generally identified by words such as will, anticipate, believe, plan, intend,
target, and expect or similar words that suggest future outcomes.
Material forward-looking information includes expectations regarding:
• future revenues, expenses, earnings and funds from operations,
• the future pricing of electricity and market fundamentals in existing and target markets,
• the Company’s future cash requirements, capital expenditures, and dividends and distributions,
• the Company’s sources of funding,
• future growth and emerging opportunities in the Company’s target markets,
• the timing of, funding of, and costs for existing, planned and potential development projects and acquisitions
• plant availability, and
• capital expenditures for plant maintenance and other.
These statements are based on certain assumptions and analyses made by the Company in light of its experience and perception of historical trends, current
conditions, expected future developments, and other factors it believes are appropriate. The material factors and assumptions used to develop these forward-looking
statements relate to:
• electricity and other energy prices,
• performance,
• business prospects and opportunities including expected growth and capital projects,
• status of and impact of policy, legislation and regulations,
• effective tax rates, and
• other matters discussed under the Performance Overview and Outlook and Targets for 2015 sections of the MD&A.
Whether actual results, performance or achievements will conform to the Company’s expectations and predictions is subject to a number of known and unknown
risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results and experience to differ materially from the Company’s expectations. Such material risks and uncertainties
are:
• changes in electricity prices in markets in which the Company operates,
• changes in energy commodity market prices and use of derivatives,
• regulatory and political environments including changes to environmental, financial reporting and tax legislation,
• power plant availability and performance including maintenance of equipment,
• ability to fund current and future capital and working capital needs,
• acquisitions and developments including timing and costs of regulatory approvals and construction,
• changes in market prices and availability of fuel, and
• changes in general economic and competitive conditions.
See Risks and Risk Management in the MD&A for further discussion of these and other risks. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any such
forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date made. The Company does not undertake or accept any obligation or undertaking to release publicly any
updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements to reflect any change in the Company’s expectations or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on
which any such statement is based, except as required by law.
Forward-looking information
17
Investor Relations Contact
Randy Mah
Senior Manager
(780) 392-5305
rmah@capitalpower.com
Head Office
10th Floor
10423 – 101 Street NW
Edmonton, AB T5H 0E9
www.capitalpower.com

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Capital Power 2014 Q4 Results Analyst Presentation

  • 1. Brian Vaasjo, President & CEO Stuart Lee, SVP Finance & CFO CAPITAL POWER Q4/14 and 2014 year-end Analyst Conference Call February 23, 2015
  • 2. Certain information in this presentation and in responses to questions contains forward-looking information. Actual results could differ materially from conclusions, forecasts or projections in the forward-looking information, and certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing conclusions or making forecasts or projections as reflected in the forward-looking information. Additional information about the material factors and risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusions, forecasts or projections in the forward-looking information and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information are disclosed on page 17 of this presentation and in the Company’s annual 2014 Management’s Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) prepared as of February 20, 2015 which has been filed on SEDAR (www.sedar.com). Forward-looking information Cautionary statement 2
  • 3. The Company uses (i) earnings before finance expense, income tax expense, depreciation and amortization, impairments, foreign exchange gains or losses, and gains on disposals (adjusted EBITDA), (ii) funds from operations (FFO), (iii) normalized earnings attributable to common shareholders, and (iv) normalized earnings per share as financial performance measures. These terms are not defined financial measures according to GAAP and do not have standardized meanings prescribed by GAAP and, therefore, are unlikely to be comparable to similar measures used by other enterprises. These measures should not be considered alternatives to net income, net income attributable to shareholders of the Company, net cash flows from operating activities or other measures of financial performance calculated in accordance with GAAP. Rather, these measures are provided to complement GAAP measures in the analysis of the Company’s results of operations from management’s perspective. Reconciliations of these Non-GAAP financial measures are contained in the Company’s Management’s Discussion and Analysis prepared as of February 20, 2015 for the year ended December 31, 2014, which is available under the Company’s profile on SEDAR at SEDAR.com and on the Company’s website at capitalpower.com. Non-GAAP financial measures 3
  • 4. 2014 Highlights  Completed final stages of construction with ENMAX on the Shepard Energy Centre with expected COD in Q1/15  Completed project financing and commenced construction of the K2 Wind project (1/3 ownership of 270 MW project) with expected COD in mid-2015  Executed agreements with ENMAX to develop, construct and operate the Genesee 4 &5 project; all major regulatory approvals received in Jan/15 to proceed with construction  Acquired a portfolio of wind and solar development sites in the U.S. that will provide solid foundation for growth  Announced Company’s first common share dividend increase, a 7.9% increase in the annual dividend effective with Q3/14 dividend 4
  • 5. Plant availability Q4/14 Q4/13 Alberta commercial plants Genesee 3 74% 98% Keephills 3 92% 99% Clover Bar 90% 91% Joffre 82% 85% Halkirk 98% 99% Alberta contracted plants Genesee 1 100% 100% Genesee 2 100% 95% Ontario and BC contracted plants Island Generation 100% 99% Kingsbridge 1 96% 94% Port Dover & Nanticoke 97% 95% Quality Wind 98% 98% US contracted plants Roxboro 100% 98% Southport 88% 91% Macho Springs 99% N/A Average 94% 93%(1) Q4/14 Operating performance  Strong operating performance with average plant availability of 94% in Q4/14; compared with 93% in Q4/13  74% availability at Genesee 3 due to a 27-day planned outage in Sep- Oct/14 (1) Q4/13 Average includes plant availability for U.S. commercial plants that were divested in Nov/13. 5
  • 6. 6 Proven track record of high fleet availability Plant availability consistently 90%+ in past 6 years Generation (GWh) Generation Average plant availability 96% 90% 92% 91% 93% 95% 94% - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015T 80% 85% 90% 95% 100%
  • 7. Q4/14 Financial review  Generated $102M of FFO in Q4/14 in-line with expectations  Normalized EPS of $0.20 in Q4/14 was lower than expected due to the non-cash impact of 2014 deferred tax expenses and lower wind generation at Quality Wind and Port Dover & Nanticoke  Despite a 39% decline in average AB power prices in Q4 YOY, hedging program captured a 93% higher realized average power price versus spot compared with 31% in Q4/13 7 Portfolio optimization Q4/14 Q4/13 AB spot power price average (MW/h) $30 $49 Realized power price(1) (MW/h) $58 $64 % realized above spot power price 93% 31% (1) Realized power price is the average price realized on the Company’s commercial contracted sales and portfolio optimization activities in Alberta.
  • 8. $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Average AB spot power price Capital Power captured AB price Alberta power market trading  Portfolio optimization activities focused on managing exposure to commodity risks, reducing volatility and creating incremental value Average realized power price has exceeded spot power prices by 16% on average over the past 5 years 2010 2011 2012 2013 ($/MWh) 2014 8
  • 9. $M, except per share amounts Q4/14 Q4/13 Change Revenues $432 $327 32% Adjusted EBITDA (before mark-to-market)(1) $104 $102 2% Basic earnings per share $0.40 $0.89 (55%) Normalized earnings per share $0.20 $0.40 (50%) Funds from operations $102 $110 (7%) Financial performance – Q4/14 Normalized EPS lower than Q4/13 primarily due to higher coal costs for the AB contracted plants and the non-cash impact of 2014 deferred tax expenses (1) Before unrealized changes in fair value of commodity derivatives and emission credits of $37M and $17M for Q4/14 and Q4/13, respectively. 9
  • 10. $M, except per share amounts 2014 2013 Change Revenues $1,228 $1,393 (12%) Adjusted EBITDA (before mark-to-market)(1) $387 $483 (20%) Basic earnings per share $0.28 $2.13 (87%) Normalized earnings per share $0.72 $1.74 (59%) Funds from operations $362 $426 (15%) Financial performance – 2014 Generated $362M in funds from operations that was in-line with 2014 financial target of $360 to $400 million (1) Before unrealized changes in fair value of commodity derivatives and emission credits of $36M and $26M for 2014 and 2013, respectively. 10
  • 11. Alberta power price outlook 11  Saw a sharp decline in 2015 forward prices in late Jan 2015 when spot prices began to decline, Shepard Energy Centre reaching material generation levels and declining natural gas prices
  • 12. Financial outlook  Due to a significant decline in global oil prices that is expected to lower both economic and power demand growth in AB, along with lower forward natural gas prices for 2015, AB power forward prices have recently declined  2015 AB power forwards are currently in mid-$30/MWh range, which is lower than our original forecast assumption of $44/MWh  Actions taken over the last several years including our hedging and cost reduction programs anticipated lower pricing in 2015  AB baseload position for 2015 is fully hedged in the mid-$50/MWh  2015 FFO expectation remains the same but in the lower end of $365M to $415M guidance range  Company’s financial strength is based on the foundation of strong contracted cash flow which is not impacted by changing AB power prices – remain confident in our credit rating and dividend growth outlook 12
  • 13. 2014 Performance & 2015 targets 13 Operational and financial targets 95% 95% 94% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 2014T 2014 2015T Plant availability $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 2014T 2014 2015T Funds from operations($M) $362 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 2014T 2014 2015T Plant operating & maintenance expenses $165 - $185 $185 ($M) $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 2014T 2014 2015T $85 $75 Sustaining capex ($M) $65 $180 - $200 $360 - $400 $365 - $415
  • 14. 2015 Development & construction targets 14 On-time, on-budget and safe development of committed projects K2 Wind (Ontario)  Complete construction for COD in mid-2015 Genesee 4&5 (Alberta)  Transition from development to construction
  • 15. (1) Merchant margin is calculated using $40/MWh and $70/MWh and is based on hedge position as at December 31, 2014. (2) Based on existing plants plus committed development projects. Financial obligations include interest payments (including interest during construction), sustaining capital expenditures and general & administration expenses. (3) Dividends include common dividends, preferred dividends and CPLP distributions. Operating margin(1) to financial obligations(2) and dividends(3) 50% 100% 150% 200% 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F Contracted + merchant ($40/MWh) Contracted + merchant ($70/MWh) Contracted margin Financial obligations & dividends fully covered by contracted cash flow 15
  • 17. Forward-looking information or statements included in this presentation and in responses to questions on the analyst conference call are provided to inform the Company’s shareholders and potential investors about management’s assessment of Capital Power’s future plans and operations. This information may not be appropriate for other purposes. The forward-looking information in this presentation is generally identified by words such as will, anticipate, believe, plan, intend, target, and expect or similar words that suggest future outcomes. Material forward-looking information includes expectations regarding: • future revenues, expenses, earnings and funds from operations, • the future pricing of electricity and market fundamentals in existing and target markets, • the Company’s future cash requirements, capital expenditures, and dividends and distributions, • the Company’s sources of funding, • future growth and emerging opportunities in the Company’s target markets, • the timing of, funding of, and costs for existing, planned and potential development projects and acquisitions • plant availability, and • capital expenditures for plant maintenance and other. These statements are based on certain assumptions and analyses made by the Company in light of its experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, expected future developments, and other factors it believes are appropriate. The material factors and assumptions used to develop these forward-looking statements relate to: • electricity and other energy prices, • performance, • business prospects and opportunities including expected growth and capital projects, • status of and impact of policy, legislation and regulations, • effective tax rates, and • other matters discussed under the Performance Overview and Outlook and Targets for 2015 sections of the MD&A. Whether actual results, performance or achievements will conform to the Company’s expectations and predictions is subject to a number of known and unknown risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results and experience to differ materially from the Company’s expectations. Such material risks and uncertainties are: • changes in electricity prices in markets in which the Company operates, • changes in energy commodity market prices and use of derivatives, • regulatory and political environments including changes to environmental, financial reporting and tax legislation, • power plant availability and performance including maintenance of equipment, • ability to fund current and future capital and working capital needs, • acquisitions and developments including timing and costs of regulatory approvals and construction, • changes in market prices and availability of fuel, and • changes in general economic and competitive conditions. See Risks and Risk Management in the MD&A for further discussion of these and other risks. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date made. The Company does not undertake or accept any obligation or undertaking to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements to reflect any change in the Company’s expectations or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based, except as required by law. Forward-looking information 17
  • 18. Investor Relations Contact Randy Mah Senior Manager (780) 392-5305 rmah@capitalpower.com Head Office 10th Floor 10423 – 101 Street NW Edmonton, AB T5H 0E9 www.capitalpower.com