2013 mobile-factbook

Mobile Factbook – February 2013

2

© 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved


Portio Research Limited.
Published February 2013 by Portio Research Limited © Copyright 2013.
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info@portioresearch.com

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3


Contents
Mobile Subscriber Base ..........................................................................................................7
Worldwide Mobile Market ..................................................................................................................... 7
Subscriber Base – Worldwide .............................................................................................................. 7
Regional Overview ............................................................................................................................... 8
Half of ‘the mobile world’ is in Asia .................................................................................................... 9

Subscriber Base: Country Forecasts ...................................................................................12
Mobile Handset Shipments ...................................................................................................18
Smartphone Market ................................................................................................................24
Mobile OS Market ...................................................................................................................30
Mobile Installed Base .............................................................................................................34
Appendices .............................................................................................................................42
Glossary............................................................................................................................................. 43
Portio Research Classifications ......................................................................................................... 48
Also available from Portio Research Limited ..................................................................................... 49

4



List of Figures
Figure 1:
Figure 2:
Figure 3:
Figure 4:
Figure 5:
Figure 6:
Figure 7:
Figure 8:
Figure 9:
Figure 10:
Figure 11:
Figure 12:
Figure 13:
Figure 14:
Figure 15:
Figure 16:
Figure 17:
Figure 18:
Figure 19:
Figure 20:
Figure 21:
Figure 22:
Figure 23:
Figure 24:
Figure 25:
Figure 26:
Figure 27:
Figure 28:
Figure 29:
Figure 30:
Figure 31:
Figure 32:

Mobile Subscribers – Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2016F)............................................... 7
Subscriber Base Growth Rate – Regional (In Percent) ..................................................................... 8
Mobile Subscriber Base – Regional (In Million, 2013F) ..................................................................... 8
Worldwide Mobile Subscriber Base – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F) ... 9
Top 10 Countries by Mobile Subscriber Additions – Worldwide (In Million, End 2011 – End 2016F)...
......................................................................................................................................................... 12
Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Worldwide (In Percent, End 2011 – End
2016F) .............................................................................................................................................. 13
Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Western Europe (In Percent, End 2011–
End 2016F) ...................................................................................................................................... 13
Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Eastern Europe (In Percent, End 2011 –
End 2016F) ...................................................................................................................................... 14
Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Asia Pacific (In Percent, End 2011 – End
2016F) .............................................................................................................................................. 14
Top 5 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Latin America (In Percent, End 2011 – End
2016F) .............................................................................................................................................. 15
Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Middle East (In Percent, End 2011 – End
2016F) .............................................................................................................................................. 15
Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Africa (In Percent, End 2011 – End 2016F)
......................................................................................................................................................... 16
Mobile Handset Shipments – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2016F)................................................. 18
Handset Shipments and Subscriber Base Growth Rate – Worldwide (In Percent, 2011– 2016F) .... 19
Handset Shipments – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F) .......................... 20
Mobile Handset Shipments – Regional (In Million, 2013F) ............................................................... 21
Regional Dominance – Mobile Handset Vendors (2012F) ................................................................ 22
Handset Shipments & Smartphone Shipments – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2016F) .................. 24
Smartphone Contribution to Handset Shipments – Worldwide (In Percent, 2009 – 2016F) ............. 25
Smartphone Shipments – Growth Rate – Regional (In Percent) .................................................... 25
Smartphone Shipments – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F) ................... 26
Smartphone Shipments – Regional (In Million, 2013F) .................................................................... 27
Regional Dominance – Smartphone Vendors (2012F) ..................................................................... 28
Handset Shipments by Operating Systems – Worldwide (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F) ....... 31
Mobile Installed Base – Worldwide (In Million, 2011 & 2016F) ......................................................... 34
Mobile Installed Base Penetration by Type – Worldwide (In Percent, End 2011 – End 2016F)........ 35
Mobile Installed Base Trend – Worldwide (End 2011 – End 2016F) ................................................ 36
Mobile Installed Base Trend – Europe (End 2011 – End 2016F)...................................................... 37
Mobile Installed Base Trend – Asia Pacific (End 2011 – End 2016F)............................................... 37
Mobile Installed Base Trend – North America (End 2011 – End 2016F) .......................................... 38
Mobile Installed Base Trend – Latin America (End 2011 – End 2016F) ........................................... 39
Mobile Installed Base Trend – Middle East & Africa (2011-2016F) .................................................. 40

List of Tables
Table 1:

Comparison of Mobile Operating Systems based on Selected Parameters ..................................... 30


5


Chapter 1
Mobile Subscriber Base

6



Mobile Subscriber Base
Worldwide Mobile Market
The worldwide mobile market has enjoyed continued significant growth in the past few years.
Worldwide, the overall industry is anticipated to continue its growth phase in the near future.
As the penetration of mobile services rose year-on-year and markets became more saturated, Mobile
Network Operators (MNOs) started to leverage other modes of communication beyond voice (such as
SMS, MMS and Mobile E-mail), in order to stabilise their Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and
strengthen their overall value proposition. In addition, another stream of revenue was simultaneously
explored that included mobile infotainment and entertainment services, such as news updates, games
and music, which became known as Value Added Services (VAS).
Being one of the most dynamic industries, the wireless sector has never been short of innovation. Even
as the overall market was riding on the success of new products – including messaging and VAS,
leading operators started offering other data services and payment services. This move was supported
by mobile handset vendors who launched advanced devices with greater computing power and better
operating systems (OS). As the industry has matured and voice services have become commoditised,
MNOs worldwide switched focus ever more on to mobile data services, mobile app downloads and
mobile payment services.
Subscriber Base – Worldwide
The worldwide mobile subscriber base is expected to reach 6.5 billion by end-2012 taking global mobile
penetration to approximately 92 percent. The subscriber base is forecast to increase at a Compounded
Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.3 percent between 2011 and 2016, to reach nearly 8.5 billion by end2016. This growth will be led by markets in Asia Pacific and Africa. The figure below highlights year-onyear subscriber base growth for the period 2009-2016.

Figure 1: Mobile Subscribers – Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2016F)

Mobile Subscribers
(In Million)

10000

CAGR = 7.3%

CAGR = 13.2%

8000
6000

5,356

5,968

7,015

6,512

7,511

8,479

7,997

4,660

4000
2000
0
2009

2010

2011

2012F

2013F

2014F

2015F

2016F

Year
Source: Portio Research Ltd.

F – Forecasted

The growth in the mobile subscriber base will be led by markets in Asia Pacific and Africa.


7


Regional Overview
Africa will witness the fastest subscriber growth with a CAGR of 9.4 percent between 2011 and 2016,
followed by Asia Pacific with a CAGR of 9 percent during the same period. Furthermore, the advanced
markets of North America and Western Europe are approaching saturation, with most of the markets
having close to or more than 100 percent mobile penetration. Regional CAGR (2011-2016) is depicted
in the figure below.

Figure 2: Subscriber Base Growth Rate – Regional (In Percent)

CAGR 2011-2016
(In Percent)

10%

9.0%

Worldwide CAGR = 7.3%

9.4%

7.7%

8%
6.0%
6%
4.0%
4%
2.1%

2.4%

Western
Europe

Eastern
Europe

2%
0%
Asia Pacific North America Latin America Middle East

Africa

Year

The figure below depicts the estimated mobile subscriber base by region for the end of 2013.

Figure 3: Mobile Subscriber Base – Regional (In Million, 2013F)


F – Forecasted

8



Half of ‘the mobile world’ is in Asia
The percentage contribution of the Asia Pacific region to the worldwide mobile subscriber base will
increase from 51.3 percent at end-2012 to 54.3 percent at end-2016; similarly, Africa’s percentage
contribution will increase from 11 percent at end-2012 to 11.9 percent at end-2016. The percentage
contributions of all other regions – bar the Middle East – are expected to decrease continuously over
the same period. The contribution from the Middle East region is expected to remain almost constant.

1

Figure 4: Worldwide Mobile Subscriber Base – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F)

2013F

2012F
8.4%

8.0%

11.2%

9.0%

8.6%

4.2%
10.2%

11.0%
4.2%

10.3%
5.8%

5.6%
51.3%
52.3%

Western Europe

Eastern Europe

Asia Pacific

North America

Latin America

Middle East

Africa

2016F

11.9%
4.3%

7.0%
7.5%

9.9%

5.1%
54.3%


F – Forecasted

1

Note: Figures may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding-off errors.


9


Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2012-2016
Your essential guide to understanding the size, scope and major players of
the worldwide mobile industry. Serving as an invaluable guide for those in and
outside the mobile space to enable better understanding of the worldwide
mobile market, the third edition of this detailed and comprehensively updated
handbook offers you all the essential market data required for business
strategy and planning purposes, including: in-depth subscriber growth
forecasts for leading countries, subscriber figures for key network operators
across all major geographies, market share data, quarterly handset shipment
figures, handset and infrastructure vendor profiles, analysis of popular
handsets/smartphones, ARPU data, churn figures and so much more.
This essential 192-page market report will act as a touchstone to refer back to
again and again for meetings, presentations and business plans.
Please click here for more details.

10



Chapter 2
Subscriber Base: Country Forecasts


11


Subscriber Base: Country Forecasts
The Top 10 countries worldwide, by mobile subscriber additions over FY 2011 to FY 2016, will be
adding 1,807 million mobile subscribers over the next five years. This is equivalent to 72 percent of the
total subscriber additions worldwide over that period.

800
633.4
600

534.7

78.8

71.0

65.0

57.1

55.1
Iran

94.8

Nigeria

108.3

Bangladesh

108.5

The US

200

Pakistan

400

Egypt

Mobile Subscriber Additions
(In Million)

Figure 5: Top 10 Countries by Mobile Subscriber Additions – Worldwide (In Million, End 2011 – End 2016F)

Brazil

Indonesia

India

China

0

Country


F – Forecasted

12



Countries from Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa are among the Top 10 emerging markets with
high CAGRs; Egypt, Oman and Sudan are the Top 3 fastest growing mobile markets worldwide based
on this 2011-2016 metric.

16.71

18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

14.60

9.85

Nigeria

10.05

Uganda

10.52

China

11.17

Pakistan

11.18

Iran

11.24

Mozambique

11.99

Bangladesh

Sudan

Oman

12.23

Egypt

CAGR (In Percent)

Figure 6: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Worldwide (In Percent, End 2011 – End
2016F)

Country

F – Forecasted

The French market is expected to have a mobile subscriber base of 87.3 million by end-2016, indicating
a CAGR of 4.9 percent between 2011 and 2016 – the highest CAGR in the Western European region.
Adjacent to France, during the period end-2011 to end-2016, the UK is expected to witness the lowest
growth – of just 0.6 percent.

Figure 7: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Western Europe (In Percent, End 2011–
End 2016F)

CAGR (In Percent)

6%
4.9%
4.4%

4.2%

4.0%

4%

3.9%
3.4%
3.0%

2.9%

2.8%
2.1%

2%

Country

Norway

Switzerland

Belgium

The Netherlands

Denmark

Sweden

Ireland

Finland

Austria

France

0%


F – Forecasted


13


Greece is expected to lead the Eastern European region in terms of subscriber growth, with a CAGR
of 5.9 percent between 2011 and 2016, followed by Belarus (5.6 percent) and Poland (4.3 percent).

Figure 8: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Eastern Europe (In Percent, End 2011 –
End 2016F)

CAGR (In Percent)

8%
5.9%

6%

5.6%
4.3%

4.3%

4.2%

4%

3.2%

2.7%
1.8%

2%

1.7%

1.6%

Croatia

Serbia

Romania

0%
Greece

Belarus

Poland

Turkey

Bulgaria

Slovakia

Hungary

Country

F – Forecasted

Asia Pacific: Over the period Year-end 2011 to Year-end 2016, Bangladesh’s mobile market will grow
fastest. The subscriber base in the country stood at 85.5 million at end-2011, and will reach 150.5
million by end-2016. Pakistan will achieve the second largest 2011-2016 CAGR rate with 11.2 percent.
In CAGR terms, third and fourth placed China and India will grow at respective rates of 10.5 and 9.8
percent. This is shown in the figure below.

15%
11.2%

10.5%

9.8%

10%

9.4%

8.5%

7.5%

6.9%
4.8%

4.3%

Thailand

12.0%

Japan

CAGR (In Percent)

Figure 9: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Asia Pacific (In Percent, End 2011 – End
2016F)

5%

Kazakhstan

Indonesia

The Philippines

Afghanistan

India

China

Pakistan

Bangladesh

0%

Country

F – Forecasted

14



North America: It is expected that the mobile market of Canada and The US will witness a CAGR of
4.7 and 4.0 percent respectively during the period end-2011 to end-2016.
In the case of Latin America, pole positioned Brazil and second place Peru will lead their peers in
terms of subscriber base growth rate. The Brazilian mobile market is expecting a growth rate of 7.6
percent over the period 2011-2016; while Peru should achieve 7 percent during the same period.

Figure 10: Top 5 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Latin America (In Percent, End 2011 – End
2016F)

CAGR (In Percent)

12%
9%

7.6%

7.0%
5.9%

5.7%

5.3%

Chile

Colombia

Argentina

6%
3%
0%
Brazil

Peru

Country

F – Forecasted

Growth of mobile subscribers in the Middle East during the period end-2011 to end-2016 is expected to
be half of the growth witnessed during the period 2009 to 2011. The mobile subscriber base of the
region is expected to increase at a CAGR of 7.7 percent during 2011-2016. Iran and Saudi Arabia are
expected to continue their dominance as the largest overall markets over the period 2011-2016.

Figure 11: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Middle East (In Percent, End 2011 – End
2016F)

CAGR (In Percent)

20%
15%

14.6%
11.2%

10%

6.8%
5.2%

5.1%

5%

4.2%

4.1%

3.8%

3.5%

3.0%

Kuwait

Saudi
Arabia

The UAE

Qatar

Israel

0%
Oman

Iran

Jordan

Syria

Iraq

Country

F – Forecasted


15


Africa: Egypt and Sudan will grow at the fastest pace during the period 2011-2016 registering CAGRs
of 16.7 percent and 12.2 percent respectively.

Figure 12: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Africa (In Percent, End 2011 – End 2016F)

20%

CAGR (In Percent)

16.7%
15%

12.2%

11.2%

10.1%

9.9%

9.8%

10%

9.5%

9.4%

9.0%

8.9%

Tanzania

Kenya

Ghana

5%
0%
Egypt

Sudan Mozambique Uganda

Nigeria DR of Congo Angola

Country

F – Forecasted

Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2012-2016
Your essential guide to understanding the size, scope and major players of the
worldwide mobile industry. Serving as an invaluable guide for those in and outside
the mobile space to enable better understanding of the worldwide mobile market,
the third edition of this detailed and comprehensively updated handbook offers you
all the essential market data required for business strategy and planning purposes,
including: in-depth subscriber growth forecasts for leading countries, subscriber
figures for key network operators across all major geographies, market share data,
quarterly handset shipment figures, handset and infrastructure vendor profiles,
analysis of popular handsets/smartphones, ARPU data, churn figures and so much
more.
This essential 192-page market report will act as a touchstone to refer back to again
and again for meetings, presentations and business plans.

16



Chapter 3
Mobile Handset Shipments


17


Over the period from the end of 2009 to the end of 2011, annual worldwide handset shipments enjoyed
significant growth. The overall handset market saw a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of
15.3 percent during this period and total handset shipments reached 1.5 billion in full year 2011.
The two key factors that led to this growth were:
 An increase in mobile penetration in emerging markets
 Growing popularity of many new smartphones
The figure below shows total handset shipments for the period 2009 to 2016.

Figure 13: Mobile Handset Shipments – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2016F)

(In Million)

2,700
2,200
1,549

1,700
1,200

1,674

1,819

1,947

2,056

2,148

1,375
1,166

700
200
2009

2010

2011

2012F

2013F

2014F

2015F

2016F

Year

F – Forecasted

The mobile handset industry is expected to continue its growth phase in the foreseeable future. The
overall market will grow at a CAGR of 6.8 percent during the period 2011-2016 and the number of
shipments will cross 2 billion in the year 2015. Overall handset shipments are expected to reach 2.1
billion in the year 2016.
Based on the mobile handset shipments during the period 2011-2016, regions can be classified into two
clusters – Replacement Markets and Growth Markets. Replacement markets include the geographies
wherein handset replacements will drive shipments growth, while in growth markets the increase in
subscriber penetration will lead to an increase in total handset shipments. This is shown in the figure
below.

18



Figure 14: Handset Shipments and Subscriber Base Growth Rate – Worldwide (In Percent, 2011– 2016F)
Growth Markets
14%
11.6%

12%

Growth Rate
(In Percent)

10%

9.4%

9.0%

Replacement Markets
8%

6.8%

6%
4%

11.1%

3.8%
2.1%

7.3%

7.0%

7.7%

7.7%
6.0%

4.6%
4.0%

4.4%
2.4%

2%
0%
Western
Europe

Eastern
Europe

North
America

Worldwide

Asia Pacific Latin America Middle East

Africa

Region
Handset Shipments

Subscriber Base

F – Forecasted

In 2012, the Asia Pacific region, quite unsurprisingly, contributed the most to worldwide handset
shipments with 42.5 percent share. It was followed by North America with 12.5 percent share.
With the increasing mobile subscriber base and rise in the handset replacement rate it is anticipated
that the Asia Pacific region will strengthen its position as the overall largest region for handset
shipments. Nearly 43 percent of worldwide total shipments will be in the Asia Pacific region in the year
2016. Conversely, the contribution of the more saturated European and North American regions will
decline during the period 2011-2016 whereas it will increase for the Middle East and Africa.


19


Regional contributions for the years 2012, 2013 and 2016 are shown in the figure below.

2

Figure 15: Handset Shipments – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F)

2013F

2012F
11.3%

8.1%

8.7%

8.1%

10.9%

4.5%

8.3%

12.0%

4.6%

12.2%

42.5% 12.2%
12.5%

Western Europe

44.0%

Eastern Europe

Asia Pacific

North America

Latin America

Middle East

Africa

2016F

10.2%

9.9%
5.0%

7.9%

12.2%

11.6%
43.1%


F – Forecasted

2


20



It is expected that total handset shipments in the Asia Pacific region will be 801 million in full year 2013.
Also this year, North America is expected to see 222 million handset shipments closely followed by
Latin America with 218 million handset shipments. The figure 16 depicts the mobile handset shipments
by region for the year 2013.

Figure 16: Mobile Handset Shipments – Regional (In Million, 2013F)


F – Forecasted


21


According to our forecasts, Nokia dominated shipments in four out of seven of the regions in terms of
highest overall handset shipments in 2012. Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa were
all led by Nokia. The remaining three regions North America, Latin America and Western Europe were
largely led by Samsung as #1 vendor. This is shown in Figure 17 below.

Figure 17: Regional Dominance – Mobile Handset Vendors (2012F)


F – Forecasted

Smartphone Futures 2012-2016
The smartphone business has been the single biggest revenue
generating growth-story over the last 4 years as the rest of the
tech sector suffers amid this seemingly endless recession.
Subscriber growth has slowed dramatically in saturated
markets, voice and text have reach commodity pricing and
margins are constantly squeezed hard under consumer
pressure, yet around the world the appetite for new
smartphones continues to gain pace. Continuing to redefine the
handset business, smartphones are fast becoming the device of
choice for hundreds of millions of consumers, and 2012 is the
year that worldwide smartphone shipments will top half a billion
in one year. In this report you will learn that smartphone
shipments reached 485 million in 2011, and that number will top
655 million in 2012, rising to over 1 billion smartphones per year
by 2016.

22



Chapter 4
Smartphone Market


23


Smartphone Market
Worldwide smartphone shipments will reach 1,095 million by 2016 and account for 51 percent of total
handset shipments. The figure below compares total handset shipments with smartphone shipments
year-on-year.

Figure 18: Handset Shipments & Smartphone Shipments – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2016F)

2,500
2,000

Shipments
(In Million)

2,056

1,947

1,500

1,819

1,674

1,549
1,375
1,166

968

858

1,000
485
500

2,148

175

655

1,095

752

296

0
2009

2010

2011

2012F

2013F

2014F

2015F

2016F

Year
Handset Shipments

Smartphone Shipments

F – Forecasted

The increasing penetration of smartphones is beneficial for both MNOs and handset vendors.
Obviously, the popularity of smartphones has boosted handset vendor finances considerably over
recent years. The widespread migration of subscribers from feature phones and basic handsets to
smartphones has helped the handset vendors generate vast new revenue flows. It also helps the MNOs
lure subscribers form prepaid to postpaid deals, and on to data bundles, all of which strengthens ARPU
and reduces churn. .
Smartphone shipments as a percentage of worldwide handset shipments are highlighted in the figure
below. Based on current forecasts, smartphones will pass the 50% mark to account for the majority of
worldwide handset shipments by the end of 2016.

24



Figure 19: Smartphone Contribution to Handset Shipments – Worldwide (In Percent, 2009 – 2016F)
Moderate Growth Phase

Smartphone Contribution
(In Percent)

60%

51.0%

High Growth Phase

50%

41.3%

39.1%
40%

31.3%

30%
20%

47.1%

44.1%

21.5%
15.0%

10%
0%
2009

2010

2011

2012F

2013F

2014F

2015F

2016F

Year


F – Forecasted

Smartphone shipments in Africa are expected to grow at the fastest rate over the 2011-2016 period. It
is anticipated that the African market will grow at a CAGR of 38.6 percent. During the same period the
second highest growth rate will be observed in Eastern Europe (26.2 percent). This is shown in the
figure below.

Figure 20: Smartphone Shipments – Growth Rate – Regional (In Percent)

CAGR 2011-2016
(In Percent)

50%
40%

38.6%

Worldwide CAGR = 7.3%

30%

26.2%

23.6%

23.9%

20.2%
20%
9.5%

9.1%

10%
0%
Western
Europe

Eastern
Europe

Asia Pacific North America Latin America Middle East

Africa

Year

The Asia Pacific region is the largest Smartphone market with more than one-third contribution to the
overall worldwide smartphone market. This trend is expected to continue on to 2016.


25


The figure below depicts the region-wise share of worldwide Smartphone Shipments for the years 2012,
2103 and 2016.

3

Figure 21: Smartphone Shipments – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F)

2013F

2012F
19.4%

4.1%

3.8%
4.0%
8.0%

4.7%

17.9% 4.7%

8.5%

5.1%

20.0%
21.4%

38.3%
40.2%

Western Europe

Eastern Europe

Asia Pacific

North America

Latin America

Middle East

Africa

2016F

7.7%

14.0%

4.9%
8.0%

7.0%

16.0%
42.3%


F – Forecasted

3


26



It is expected that more than 300 million smartphones will be shipped to the Asia Pacific region this
year (2013). During the same year North America is expected to witness 150 million smartphone
shipments.
Figure 22, below, depicts the smartphone shipments by region for 2013.

Figure 22: Smartphone Shipments – Regional (In Million, 2013F)


F – Forecasted


27


The figure below highlights the key leading smartphone vendors in each region.

Figure 23: Regional Dominance – Smartphone Vendors (2012F)


F – Forecasted

The smartphone business has been the single biggest
revenue generating growth-story over the last 4 years as the
rest of the tech sector suffers amid this seemingly endless
recession. Subscriber growth has slowed dramatically in
saturated markets, voice and text have reach commodity
pricing and margins are constantly squeezed hard under
consumer pressure, yet around the world the appetite for new
smartphones continues to gain pace. Continuing to redefine
the handset business, smartphones are fast becoming the
device of choice for hundreds of millions of consumers, and
2012 is the year that worldwide smartphone shipments will
top half a billion in one year. In this report you will learn that
smartphone shipments reached 485 million in 2011, and that
number will top 655 million in 2012, rising to over 1 billion
smartphones per year by 2016.

28



Chapter 5
Mobile OS Market


29


Mobile OS Market
The table below scores the major mobile operating systems on a selection of key parameters.
Table 1:

Comparison of Mobile Operating Systems based on Selected Parameters

Parameters

4

BB OS

iOS

Android

21

18

26

Design & Hardware
(Choice &
Availability)

Pricing

Global Presence

Consumer Segment
Popularity

Enterprise Segment
Popularity

Handset Vendor
Partnerships

Application Stores

Total Market Impact
Score
(Out of 28)


Android handsets accounted for 60.5 percent of the total smartphone shipments in the year 2012
worldwide. The corresponding figure is expected to drop marginally and reach 57.4 percent this year, in
2013. We forecast that Android will continue to dominate the market in the near future and maintain its
global market share at around 57percent through to 2016. The figure below shows this trend for the
years 2012, 2013 and 2016.

4

Note: Total Score for an OS has been calculated by summing up the scores indicated by the number of orange-colored quarters
for all parameters. For example, iOS scores two on the ‘Pricing’ parameter and four on the ‘Application Stores’ parameter.

30



5

Figure 24: Handset Shipments by Operating Systems – Worldwide (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F)

2013F

2012F
0.6%

6.0%

4.6%

60.5%

7.5%
5.6%

4.4%

6.9%
5.3%

21.2%
57.4%

19.9%

Andriod

Apple iOS

BB OS

Symbian

Windows

Others

2016F
5.1%
12.6%
5.6%

3.6%
57.5%
15.6%


F – Forecasted

5



31


The smartphone business has been the single biggest revenue
generating growth-story over the last 4 years as the rest of the
tech sector suffers amid this seemingly endless recession.
Subscriber growth has slowed dramatically in saturated
markets, voice and text have reach commodity pricing and
margins are constantly squeezed hard under consumer
pressure, yet around the world the appetite for new
smartphones continues to gain pace. Continuing to redefine the
handset business, smartphones are fast becoming the device of
choice for hundreds of millions of consumers, and 2012 is the
year that worldwide smartphone shipments will top half a billion
in one year. In this report you will learn that smartphone
shipments reached 485 million in 2011, and that number will top
655 million in 2012, rising to over 1 billion smartphones per year
by 2016.

32



Chapter 6
Mobile Installed Base


33


Mobile Installed Base
It is estimated that the number of smartphone users worldwide will cross the 3-billion mark by 2016, up
from 770 million as at the end of 2011. However, non-smartphone users will continue to overshadow
smartphone users year-on-year. While the number of new smartphones shipped every year are stealing
a march over those for the non-smartphone category, the installed base of non-smartphones is still
significant, and cannot be overlooked by players in the wireless ecosystem.

Figure 25: Mobile Installed Base – Worldwide (In Million, 2011 & 2016F)


F – Forecast

Smartphone users constituted only 12.9 percent of the total mobile user base at the end of 2011. This
figure increased to 17.4 percent at the end of 2012. Looking forward, by the end of 2016, smartphone
users will constitute more than one-third of the subscriber base; while close to 64 percent of worldwide
subscribers will still not be using smartphones.
The figure below shows the mobile installed base for the period end-2011 to end-2016. The nonsmartphone installed base will constitute around 64 percent of the worldwide mobile installed base at
the end of year 2016.

34



Figure 26: Mobile Installed Base Penetration by Type – Worldwide (In Percent, End 2011 – End 2016F)

120%

Penetration
(In Percent)

100%

12.9%

17.4%

22.2%

27.0%

31.8%

36.2%

77.8%

73.0%

68.2%

63.8%

2014F

2015F

2016F

80%
60%
40%

87.1%

82.6%

20%
0%
2011

2012E

2013F

Year
Non Smartphones

Smartphones

E – Estimated , F – Forecast

Between 2013 and the end of 2016, in Europe, North America and Latin America, we expect to see a
decline in the installed base of non-smartphones. On the other hand, in the Asia Pacific region, and in
the Middle East and Africa regions we expect to see a rise in the number of non-smartphone handset
users. Of course, it is worth repeating, ALL regions will see a substantial rise in smartphone users.


35


At the end of 2016, non-smartphones are expected to continue to be an important category on account
of the sheer size of the market. This highlights the fact that the players – VAS vendors, MNOs and
handset vendors – must continue to support and enlarge their product portfolio for both the smartphone
and non-smartphone segments.

Figure 27: Mobile Installed Base Trend – Worldwide (End 2011 – End 2016F)
100%
90%

Non-Smartpone Penetration

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Bubble Area represents Smartphone
Installed Base Worldwide

10%
0%
0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Smartphone Penetration
2011

2012E

2013F

2014F

2015F

2016F


Figure 28: As smartphone penetration increases, so non-smartphone penetration decreases, and the
size of the worldwide smartphone installed base grows. Smartphones are expected to dominate Europe
after 2015. This is shown in the figure below.

36



Figure 28: Mobile Installed Base Trend – Europe (End 2011 – End 2016F)
100%
90%


80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Installed Base in the Region

10%
0%
0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2011

2012E

2013F

2014F

2015F

2016F


Non-smartphones are expected to be the dominant devices in the vast Asia Pacific region until after the
end of 2016 and beyond.

Figure 29: Mobile Installed Base Trend – Asia Pacific (End 2011 – End 2016F)
100%
90%


80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%

10%
0%
0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2011

2012E

2013F

2014F

2015F

2016F



37


In North America, smartphones are expected to dominate after 2013, as shown in the figure below.

Figure 30: Mobile Installed Base Trend – North America (End 2011 – End 2016F)
100%
90%


80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Installed Bas in the Region

10%
0%
0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2011

2012E

2013F

2014F

2015F

2016F


38



Non-smartphones are expected to continue to be the dominant category in Latin America until after the
end of 2016.

Figure 31: Mobile Installed Base Trend – Latin America (End 2011 – End 2016F)
100%
90%


80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%

10%
0%
0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2011

2012E

2013F

2014F

2015F

2016F



39


As shown below, non-smartphones will dominate in the Middle East & Africa until after end-2016.

Figure 32: Mobile Installed Base Trend – Middle East & Africa (2011-2016F)
100%
90%


80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%

10%
0%
0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2011

2012E

2013F

2014F

2015F

2016F


Worldwide Mobile Handset Installed Base 20122016
Analysing and segmenting the worldwide installed base
of smartphones and non-smartphones from 2011
through 2016. Published 28th November 2012
This new market report offers you insight into the size
of the installed base of mobile handsets around the
world. Broken out by major geographical region, and
for a number of specific countries, this report offers
details on the number of active Smartphones in use
around the world, and the number of active NonSmartphones in use around the world. With full
forecasts through 2016.Most research studies report on
handset shipments, which we offer in our Smartphone
Futures 2012-2016 report. This report however, offers
you essential and valuable data on the size of the
cumulative total installed base of devices in operation
worldwide.

40



Chapter 7
Appendices


41


Appendices
This market study has been written in a way that avoids excessive use of market acronyms (except
where appropriate) and industry technical talk, as we have tried to keep the text open to all readers, not
just those with in-depth knowledge of the world’s mobile markets. Because this study covers all
geographical regions and many emerging markets, a great deal of the data contained within this study
will potentially be of interest to investors, financial analysts, consultants, venture capitalists and others
all around the world who do not work within the mobile industry itself every day of their lives. To many
of these people, some of the industry technical talk and acronyms may be confusing, so we have
attempted to write this study in a self-explanatory way that assumes little prior knowledge, but in doing
this, some of the speech chosen may seem somewhat "obvious" to our more knowledgeable readers.
We hope this offers the best possible solution to everyone, and we hope this does not cause any
confusion or inconvenience.
Where we have used technical terms or acronyms, we offer an explanation of those expressions below.

42



Glossary
3G or third generation
3G is an International Telecommunication Union (ITU) specification for the third generation (analog
cellular was the first generation and digital PCS 6 was the second generation) of mobile communication
technology.
Third generation Wireless Wide Area Networks (WWAN) communication systems are characterised by
high-speed data rates (144 Kbps 7 to 2+ Mbps8) suitable for multimedia content. 3G technologies
typically are packet-switched and use Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) technology to
communicate. Examples of 3G include EDGE9, 1xRTT, HDR and W-CDMA.10
3G protocols in mobile telephony support higher data transmission rates, measured in Mbps, intended
for applications other than voice. 3G support broadband and bandwidth applications, such as fullmotion video, video conferencing and Internet access.
3G as a Percentage
3G as a percentage refers to 3G subscribers as a percentage of total active mobile subscribers in a
country. This represents the proportion of 3G subscribers in the total mobile subscriber base of a
country.
3G Penetration
3G penetration refers to 3G subscribers as a percentage of total population of the country. This is
similar to the term ‘mobile penetration’, which means total number of active mobile subscribers in a
country as a percentage of total population of the country.
4G or fourth generation
4G or fourth generation WWAN communication systems are characterised by high-speed data rates at
20+ Mbps, suitable for high-resolution movies and television. The initial deployment of 4G
communication systems is expected in 2006-2010. The proposed features of these systems include
100 Mbps speed, location sensing and self-tailoring to user needs.
A2P
Application-to-Peer: In the mobile messaging world A2P messages are defined as messages generated
by an application and sent to subscribers, for example, the advertisements sent through SMS/MMS on
subscribers’ handsets.
Application Programming Interface (API)
It is an interface implemented by a software program to communicate with other software. Operating
systems and applications use API to determine the way to call or send requests to other software.
Augmented Reality (AR)
Augmented reality is the superimposition of virtual content over the real time environment. Virtual
content includes digital graphics, audio and other sense enhancements, which are augmented to the
real world by an AR device.

6

Personal Communications Service (PCS)
Kilobits per second (Kbps)
8
Megabits per second (Mbps)
9
Enhanced Data for Global Evolution (EDGE)
10
Wideband Code Division Multiple Access (W-CDMA)
7


43


Average Revenue per User (ARPU)
Measures the average monthly revenue generated for each customer unit, such as a handset or pager
that an operator has in operation.
Backhaul
It refers to the process of transmitting voice and data traffic from a remote site to a central site.
Churn Rate
It is the rate at which the subscribers cancel their subscription with the existing operator and sign up
with another operator.
Cloud Computing
Cloud computing is a technology involved in delivering hosted services on the Internet. It is based on
client-server architecture, which includes user device with applications (such as Web browsers) to
access the back end (various components, such as data storage devices, servers, etc.). The back end
components perform specific tasks and interact with each other through standard application
programming interfaces.
Dongle
Dongle is a portable device which is connected to a laptop or desktop and resembles a USB flash drive.
It is widely used as a wireless broadband adapter.
Dumb Pipes
Dumb pipe refers to a mobile operator’s wireless network being used only to transfer data/bytes
between the Internet and the user’s device. For an operator being a dumb pipe, there is a potential loss
of revenue for the operator, since the operator is generating revenue only for the network data access
and is not receiving any significant share in data/content service revenue.

Facebook Penetration
It is the Facebook user base expressed as a percentage of the total population of the country.
Feature Phone
Feature phones are handsets with browsers (primarily based on embedded J2ME and BREW
platforms) to enable access to web based e-mail, and sometimes have embedded applications for
social networking, instant messaging (IM) and mobile banking. These phones often come with high
resolution cameras, GPS and innovative multimedia features. The major differentiating factor between a
smartphone and a feature phone is that feature phones do not have an open Operating System (OS).
The OS present in smartphones, through its Application Programming Interface (API), enables
subscribers to install and remove third-party applications. Smartphones are better integrated with the
handset's User Interface than Java applications.
Freemium
Freemium is a strategy adopted by application stores in which trial or lite versions of premium apps are
offered for free or for a small charge; and users have an option to upgrade the apps with additional
features by paying additional charges.
GUI
Graphical User Interface (GUI) is the front-end interface and navigation design of an application. This
includes standard formats for representing text and graphics. GUIs have become the standard ways for
interaction between users and digital devices.

44



i-mode
i-mode is a proprietary packet-based information service for mobile handsets. It delivers information
(such as mobile banking, and train timetable) to handsets and enables exchange of e-mail from mobile
handsets on the PDC-P network. Launched in 1999 by NTT DOCOMO, i-mode is very popular in Japan
(especially for e-mail and transfer of icons).
IMS
IMS IP Multimedia Subsystem is an extension of the GSM / 3GPP GPRS core Network. It uses SIP
(Session Initiation Protocol) to set up, maintain and terminate packet-switched voice and multimedia
sessions.
Interoperability
This is defined as the ability of a network to operate with other networks, such as two systems based on
different protocols or technologies.
In-app Payment
In-app payment is the payment made by mobile user to get privileged features, services or digital goods
while using mobile apps. The privileged feature may be moving from a free or lite version of an app to
the full version.
Instant Messaging (IM)
Instant Messaging is an Internet-based service that alerts users when their friends or colleagues are
online and allows them to communicate with each other in real-time through private online chat areas.
With instant messaging, users create a list of other users with whom they want to communicate. When
a user from their list is online, the service alerts them and enables an immediate contact with the other
user. While instant messaging has primarily been a proprietary service offered by Internet service
providers such as AOL and MSN, businesses are starting to employ instant messaging to increase
employee efficiency and make expertise more readily available to employees.
LTE
Long-Term Evolution (LTE) is the standard being developed by 3GPP to achieve download rates of
100Mbps, and upload rates of 50Mbps for every 20MHz of spectrum and is termed as a 4G standard.
LTE has support for bandwidths ranging from 1.25MHz to 20MHz.
M2M
Machine-to-Machine: M2M generally means the communication between machines. However, in the
mobile world, it is sometimes defined as Mobile-to-Mobile, which basically refers to communication that
involves only mobiles and not landlines.
MNO
Mobile Network Operator.
MNO market penetration
It is the mobile subscriber base of an MNO expressed as a percentage of total population of the country
of operation.
Mobile Internet Penetration
Mobile Internet Penetration is described as mobile Internet users (of the specified market or region) as
a percentage of the specified market or region’s mobile subscriber base.


45


Mobile penetration
It is the mobile subscriber base in a country expressed as a percentage of its total population.
Native Apps
Native apps are mobile applications developed specifically to run on a particular operating system or
device.
Near Field Communication
Near Field Communication (NFC) is a wireless communication technology which uses short-range high
frequency to enable the exchange of data between devices in proximity with each other. The distance
between the communicating devices has to be less than 10 centimetres. NFC-capable devices can
communicate with smartcard readers as well as other NFC-capable devices.
Over-the-Top Services
Over-the-Top services refer to those services which are available to users over mobile networks without
MNOs being involved in planning, provisioning and selling them.Within the mobile industry, OTT
services are interchangably referred to as next generation services.
P2P
Peer-to-Peer: In the mobile messaging world, P2P messages are defined as messages exchanged
between subscribers. These messages originate from and terminate to mobile subscribers’ handsets.
SDK
Software Development Kit is a set of tools used for the development of an application for a software
package.
Service Revenue
Service revenues are the revenues earned by MNOs through the provision of services only, i.e.
revenues after deducting revenues earned from sales of equipment/products.
Smartphone
A smartphone is a mobile handset which runs on operating system (OS) software and offers some of
the capabilities of a PC. It provides a standardised interface and platform for application developers and
is enabled with advanced features, such as e-mail, Internet and an e-book reader. Some of the other
features expected from a smartphone include built-in full keyboard/external USB keyboard, powerful
microprocessors, memory, built-in modem and large screens. The major differentiating factor between a
smartphone and a feature phone is that an open Operating System (OS) is present in a smartphone.
The OS, through its Application Programming Interface (API), enables subscribers to install and remove
third-party applications. Smartphones are better integrated with the handset's User Interface than Java
applications.
Smartphone penetration is described as smartphone users (of the specified market or region) as a
percentage of the specified market or region's mobile subscriber base.
USSD
Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) is a standard for transmitting information over GSM
networks. It is primarily used to access the information on prepaid balances and similar details.

46



VAS
Mobile operators offer various services which are not part of the basic voice offer. These services are
availed off separately by the mobile subscribers. It includes services such as SMS, MMS, mobile email, mobile games, mobile music etc. These also include services such as WAP, voicemail, call
diversion, etc.
W-CDMA
Wideband Code Division Multiple Access: The third generation standard offered to the International
Telecommunication Union by GSM proponents. This is a 3G technology that increases data
transmission rates in GSM systems by using CDMA instead of TDMA.
W-CDMA has become the Direct Sequence mode in the ITU's 3G specification which includes the 1x
Multi-Carrier mode (1x MC) and 3x Multi-Carrier mode (3x MC). 1x MC (formerly known as cdma2000)
and 3x MC comprise the 3G upgrade paths for operators already using CDMA.
Wi-Fi
Wireless Fidelity: It is used to provide wireless local area network through enhanced interoperability of
the network. Services such as Internet, VoIP phone access, and gaming, etc., can be provided using
Wi-Fi.


47


Portio Research Classifications
Geographical Regions:
There is sometimes a difference in the way research firms classify the major geographical territories. At
Portio Research, we follow 'obvious' geographical lines, but for the record, here are the regional
definitions we follow, unless otherwise stated in the report:
Western Europe: Standard classification includes Iceland and various islands
Central and Eastern Europe: Includes standard list of Central and Eastern European countries, and
the Baltic states, Balkans, Russia, Greece and Turkey
Asia Pacific: Includes Australasia, the Indian Sub-Continent, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka,
Maldives and the Former Soviet Union Central Asian republics
North America: Standard classification, including Hawaii and islands to the North
Latin America: Includes all South and Central American countries including Mexico, The Caribbean
and The West Indies
Middle East: Includes Israel and all Middle Eastern countries East of Egypt, South of Turkey and West
of Afghanistan
Africa: Standard classification includes territories in Western Indian Ocean
Mobile Subscribers
Generally, we count active SIMs, and we consider active as being used within 3 months, but, of course
there is some room for variance, depending on what figures operators themselves publish or report to
us when we interview them. When running spot-checks on operator numbers, we are governed by the
figures they give us, and as we are all aware, many individuals and companies around the world count
their subscribers/subscriptions by a number of different criteria. We refer to "total subscribers" for a
network/country or globally, as a count of the total number of active subscriptions those networks have,
and as such this can cause a slight distortion of any country-penetration rate.
Currency and Monetary Values
All monetary values quoted in this report are in US Dollars as the most widely recognised benchmark
internationally. The currency conversion has been done on the year average basis.
Whilst researching global mobile markets, we use http://www.xe.com for all currency conversion
calculations.

48



Also available from Portio Research Limited
Portio Research Ltd is a UK-based research company focussing on the mobile space, providing
reports, handbooks, directories and database products.

Mobile Applications Futures 2013-2017
Analysis and Growth Forecasts for the Worldwide Mobile Applications Market
The apps business has finally ‘come of age’ and this worldwide success story is now growing fast.
Apps generated an impressive USD 12 billion in full-year 2012, and in total 46 billion apps were
downloaded in the year, taking the cumulative all-time total downloads since the app game began, to
83 billion. That is certainly a market in rapid growth, just look at those numbers again. The all-time
cumulative total number of downloads stood at 37 billion at the end of 2011, but reached 83 billion by
the end of 2012, more than doubling in one year. So in 2012, more apps were downloaded that in
the previous 5 years all added together.
Market doubling in 2013
This doubling is forecast to happen again in 2013. Our new forecasts show that 2013 will see 82
billion apps downloaded worldwide, taking the cumulative total to 165 billion apps by the end of the
year. Revenues are set for ‘space rocket’ growth too, after 2012 saw full-year app revenues of USD
12 billion, in 2013 we forecast worldwide app revenues to reach USD 20.4 billion.
From this doubling of the apps business in 2013, we forecast that downloads will continue to grow to
exceed 200 billion per year by the end of full year 2017, and revenues in 2017 will reach 63.5 billion
US dollars.
This is impressive growth. While worldwide the mobile subscriber base is forecast to grow at a
CAGR of 4.8 percent over the period 2012 to 2017, and annual handset shipments are expected to
increase at a CAGR of 6.6 percent over the same time frame, apps downloads are forecast to grow
at 35.9 percent CAGR.
So what is driving this rapid growth in downloads?
Our data shows that in mature markets, usage of apps per person is starting to level off, in Europe
and North America, the number of apps downloaded per person is reaching a stable level. What’s
driving the growth in the app download business is the rapid growth in smartphone and tablet sales.
Smartphone shipments worldwide are expected to reach 823 million this year, in 2013. Smartphones
accounted for around 41 percent of total handset shipments during 2012. This figure is expected to
reach 46 percent during 2013, and more than half (56 percent) of total handset shipments will be
smartphones by 2017. From 680 million smartphones shipped
in 2012, we expect to see 1296 smartphones shipped in 2017,
almost double the number.
Similarly, tablet sales are enjoying explosive growth now.
Tablet shipments are forecast to average a CAGR of 24 percent
over the period 2012-2017, rising from 2012 shipments of
136 million, to 2013 shipments of 208 million, going on to 2017
shipments of 398 million devices. Due to this rapid growth
in smartphone and tablet sales, we forecast that over the
period 2012-2017, the number of apps users will grow at a CAGR
of 29.8 percent, to reach 4.4 billion users by the end of 2017,
4 times as many apps users as there are today.
This detailed new report explores all these issues, and delivers
all these forecasts for each year to 2017, all in great detail
to help you understand this massive growth opportunity.

If you have any questions or if we can be of any assistance to you, please contact us by e-mail:
info@portioresearch.com


49

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