Analysis for RIAs to send with quarterly performance reports and use in RIA newsletters and RIA websites.

1. Quarterly Market Summary
3rd Quarter 2012
A Great Quarter For U.S. Stocks

2. 1500
1450
1400
1350
1300
1250
1200 Standard & Poor’s 500 Index
Three Quarters Ended September 30, 2012
1150
Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12

3. 1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200 Standard & Poor’s 500 Index
Three Years Ended September 30, 2012
0
Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12

4. 1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index
Five Years Ended September 30, 2012
0
Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12

5. S&P 500 TR
Global REIT
High Yield
Leveraged Loans
Commodities
Crude Oil
Gold
Muni Bonds
Treasury Bonds Asset Classes
Ag Commodities
Euro (€)
12 Months Ended September 30, 2012
-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
Commodities
Gold
Crude Oil
S&P 500
Ag Commodities
Leveraged Loans
High Yield Asset Classes
Global REIT
3rd Quarter 2012
Muni Bonds
Euro (€)
Treasury Bonds
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%
Standard & Poor’s/BG Cantor 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury S&P 500 Total Return Index; S&P GSCI Index; Barclays
Bond Index (total return); S&P Global REIT Index (total Ipath Crude Oil ETF; Currencyshares Euro Trust ETF; SPDR
return); S&P Municipal Bond Investment Grade Index Gold Trust ETF; Powershares DB Agriculture ETF.
(total return); S&P Leveraged Loan Index (total return);

6. 1500 Weak March-June
jobs reports; 9/13/12
May-June 4/2/12 European austerity Fed announces
2011: 1,419 fatigue QE 3
4/29/11 softer 7/21/11 9/6/12
1400
1363 economic 2nd European Rescue ECB announces
data Plan - increased EFSF, unlimited
20% Greek haircut bond-buying
-10% 7/26/12 program
1300 +29%
+33% ECB says it will
"do whatever
4/23/10 6/1/12 it takes"
1217 1,278 to save euro
S&P 500 Index
-19%
1200 6/20/12
Operation Twist
12/19/10 12/20/11 extended through YE
-16% Meredith Whitney: ECB institutes LTRO
"You could see fifty to
1100 100 sizeable defaults."
8/5/11 10/3/11
8/27/10
S&P cuts U.S. 1,099
Bernanke's speech debt rating
5/6/10
Flash Crash 7/2/10 at Jackson Hole,
1000
5/9/10 1022 hinting at QE2.
1st European 8/13/10 David Rosenberg:
Rescue Plan double-dip recession is
QE 1 "a virtual certainty." QE 2 Operation Twist1 and QE 3
900
Jan-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Oct-12
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Source: Standard & Poor’s. Data through October 5, 2012.
1Fed’s September 13th meeting statement: the Committee decided to continue through the end of the year its program to extend
the average maturity of its holdings; buy $40 billion per month of mortgage-backed bonds, open-ended commitment (QE 3). 2
Barron’s survey of 10 Wall Street strategists published December 19, 2011.

7. Consumer Income, Spending, And Saving
12,000 1,200
10,000 1,000
Disposable Personal
Income (left)
8,000 800
Personal Spending
$ billions SAAR
(left )
$ billions SAAR
6,000 600
4,000 400
.
2,000 Personal Saving 200
(right)
0 0
2012-Jun
1996-Aug
1995-Jan
2007-Sep
2009-Apr
2010-Nov
2006-Feb
2001-May
2002-Dec
1998-Mar
1999-Oct
2004-Jul
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data through July 2012.
© Fritz Meyer Economic Research

8. 1,000
873
500
Monthly Change in Payrolls (000)
Household
survey
114
0
-500
Establishment
survey
-1,000
-1,500
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; data through September 2012. 1

9. 70
65
ISM Manufacturing Index
60
55
50
45
40
35 Clear bands
indicate recession.
30
Jan-89 Jan-92 Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10
Source: Institute for Supply Management; data through September 2012.

10. 1600 Standard & Poor’s 500 Index 6
1400
5
1200
4
1000
800 3
600
2
400
10-Year Treasury Note Yield 1
200
0 0

11. 16
14
Inflation Remains Benign
12
10
Percent Change Y/Y
8
6 Consumer Price Index
4
2 Core CPI
0
Jan-70 Jan-74 Jan-78 Jan-82 Jan-86 Jan-90 Jan-94 Jan-98 Jan-02 Jan-06 Jan-10
-2
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics through August 2012

12. Actual/Forecast
2013-III(E)
2013-I(E)
2012-III(E)
2012-I
2011-III
2011-I
2010-III
2010-I
2009-III
2009-I
2008-III
2008-I
2007-III
2007-I
2006-III
2006-I
2005-III
2005-I
2004-III
2004-I
2003-III
2003-I
2002-III
2002-I
2001-III
2001-I
2000-III
2000-I
1999-III
1999-I
1998-III
1998-I
1997-III
1997-I
9
7
5
3
1
-3
-1
-5
-7
Q/Q % change(annualized)

13. 6.50
Russell Emerging Markets Index Russell Asia ex-Japan Index
Russell Developed Europe Index Russell 1000 Index
5.50
$4.89
4.50
$4.00
3.50
$2.54
2.50
$2.13
1.50
0.50
Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11
Includes dividends reinvested

14. 1.35 Russell Emerging Markets Index Russell Asia ex-Japan Index
Russell Developed Europe Index Russell 1000 Index $1.30
1.30
1.25 $1.21
$1.22
1.20
$1.20
1.15
1.10
1.05
1.00
0.95
Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12
Includes dividends reinvested

15. 12
World GDP Growth Forecasts
10
8
GDP Growth (% Change Y/Y)
6
4 2009-2011
Actual
2 2012-2013
Forecast
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
Euro Area U.S. Japan China Brazil India
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Update.