If Hollande wins the French presidential election, he will push Chancellor Merkel and Germany to accept a slower pace of budget austerity in Europe and prioritize economic growth instead. Hollande will advocate for more stimulus spending along Keynesian models and try to make growth policies the central focus of the EU. He may also strengthen European integration and social democracy across the continent.

1. communication,
strategy
&
leadership
architects
French
Presidential
Election
#2012
Photo:
El
País
#newCommunication
#newLeadership
#newPolitics
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2. communication,
strategy
&
leadership
architects
1.
What
Europe
will
change
if
Hollande
wins?
Chancellor
Merkel,
the
European
schoolteacher,
won't
rule
EU
economic
policy
anymore
with
the
strength
which
she
did
until
now.
The
time
has
come
to
reach
a
new
deal
with
president
Hollande.
-­‐
If
the
question
is
how
is
the
debate
between
"Austerity
budget"
vs.
"Economic
Growth"
on
Sunday
night,
the
answer
will
be
like
a
deuce
in
home
camp.
The
new
deal
will
not
question
the
need
to
advance
of
a
EU
state
members
balanced
budgets
goal
but
the
pace
to
get
there:
more
slowly
and
clearly
focusing
on
growth.
Keynes
remains
the
model.
Even
is
the
answer
for
Germany
to
see
it's
own
growth
not
fading.
-­‐
As
far
as
European
integration
will
have
a
new
opportunity
to
promote
a
definitive
global
economic
governance
and
also
the
need
to
move
forward
federally
construction
of
the
common
financial
and
fiscal
policy.
-­‐
Unfortunately
EU
Foreign
and
Security
policy
is
still
a
"dream"
filed
indefinitely.
-­‐
But
the
European
alliance,
the
real
soul
and
rationale
of
the
French-­‐German
main
goal
to
move
European
integration
forward,
will
remain
intact.
-­‐
For
the
European
social-­‐democracy
will
be
a
new
time,
a
relaunch,
a
new
renaissance.
The
politically
interested
argument
explaining
that
this
economic
crisis
is
a
punishment
of
social-­‐democracy
governments
in
Europe,
the
Sunday
second
election
leg
will
show
that
it
was
not
fair
even
true,
and
that
conservative
governments
are
so
exposed
to
electoral
failure
as
the
social-­‐democrats
ones.
Important
alliance:
France
and
Denmark
plus
Hollande
&
Obama.
Hollande's
victory
will
help
to
consolidate
Ed
Miliband
British
Labour
leadership
&
momentum.
The
exit
of
the
intensive
care
unit
where
the
European
social
democracy
is.
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#newLeadership
#newPolitics
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3. communication,
strategy
&
leadership
architects
2.
Prime
Minister
Rajoy
is
interested
in
a
Hollande
win?
The
non
charismatic
Hollande
win
in
France,
will
be
oxygen
of
Spanish
socialist
PSOE
charismatic
Rubalcaba.
Rubalcaba
&
Hollande
maintain
close
and
regular
contact.
Hollande
has
echoed
the
PSOE0s
grieve
about
Sarkozy
charges
on
the
Spanish
model.
Rubalcaba
has
been
the
driving
force
behind
this
gesture
and
publicly
thanked
the
position
of
the
French
Socialist
candidate.
The
charismatic
President
Sarkozy
and
not
charismatic
Prime
Minister
Rajoy,
maintain
good
harmony
in
a
unequal’s
relationship.
Rajoy
has
offered
to
help
the
French
campaign,
Sarkozy
have
kindly
said:
no
thanks.
France
is
concerned
with
a
fragile
Spanish
with
difficulties
and
low
weight
in
Europe
and
the
world,
therefore
if
it
is
with
Zapatero
or
Rajoy.
Let's
pay
attention
to
the
French-­‐American
energy
companies’
movements
on
the
nationalization
of
Spanish
assets
in
Latin
America.
3.
Will
Hollande
be
the
growing
economic
policies
based
key
factor
in
Europe?
Europa?
Hollande
will
try
to
reach
a
deal
with
Merkel
to
make
growth
economic
policy
the
spine,
the
being
reason
of
the
EU.
European
Parliament
German
President
Schulz
and
the
German
Social-­‐democrats
will
be
key
agents
on
this
goal.
Hollande
will
add
Denmark,
Italy
and
the
rescued
states
-­‐
Portugal,
Ireland
and
Greece,
who
have
lived
in
their
own
skin
the
German
iron
law
-­‐
sometimes
humiliating
-­‐
imposed
by
Chancellor
Merkel.
The
White
House,
the
Treasury
Secretary
Geitner,
Ben
Bernanke
and
Christine
Lagarde
will
also
pressure
to
get
the
current
growth
path.
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4. communication,
strategy
&
leadership
architects
4.
What
Europe
will
change
if
Sarkozy
wins?
At
l'Elysee
Krugman
and
Stiglitz
ideas
and
economic
values
are
not
considered
strange
or
alien.
Election
time
and
the
acting
politics
of
President
Sarkozy
are
running
out.
He
embraced
Merkel
policies
by
necessity
and
had
no
choice.
Even
a
Sarkozy's
victory
would
favor
a
shift
in
the
balance
between
the
debate
between
"Austerity
vs.
Growth".
Sarkozy
with
election
finished
will
stem
the
German
absolute
dogma.
Europe
is
experiencing
a
fragile
political,
economic
and
institutional
reality.
Not
bailing
out
Greece,
or
leave
out
the
Euro,
is
worse
than
a
rescue.
Dropping
the
Euro
and
a
EU
deconstruction
on
a
key
nationalist
state
based
policy
would
be
a
no
return
path,
with
unpredictable
consequences
especially
for
fragile
states
of
the
Union
(the
south).
The
European
integration
process
is
paralyzed.
Europe
is
on
track
to
be
an
insignificant
player
at
the
counter
of
the
global
powers.
The
fear
that
Europe
will
be
invisible,
and
can
not
display
a
significant
role
under
China,
India,
USA
and
Brazil,
should
be
a
powerful
driver
to
turns
the
momentum
of
European
integration:
federalism
and
foreign
policy
are
needed
more
than
ever.
5.
What
will
be
the
elections
result?
Will
Sarkozy
overcome?
Although
surveys
are
increasingly
unreliable
and
despite
the
drop
in
vote
turnout,
no
one
points
to
the
victory
of
President
Sarkozy.
The
trend
of
increasing
Hollande
advantage
over
the
president
in
recent
days
has
been
broken,
stopped
the
coup,
there
is
even
a
comeback,
but
the
distance
is
important.
Between
6
and
10
points.
But
the
election
night
will
be
longer
than
expected
and
very
exciting.
Attention
to
the
nightly
speeches.
If
there’d
be
a
French
#11s
or
a
#11m,
the
victory
of
the
socialist
candidate
is
assured.
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5. communication,
strategy
&
leadership
architects
6.
Hollande
will
unify
the
left
vote?
And
the
center
vote?
Hollande's
leadership
is
extremely
fragile
and
weak.
He's
is
not
charismatic
leader.
He
doesn't
connect
with
voters.
Hollande
will
regroup
the
anti-­‐Sarkozy
vote,
not
a
vote
of
confidence
or
excited
left.
Neither
the
center.
French
people
want
to
end
a
political
style
and
a
very
specific
to
a
hyper
leadership
filled
with
excess
and
control.
The
economy
also
punishes
conservative
governments.
What
will
surely
Hollande
starting
Sunday
will
succeed,
is
on
appointing
on
cabinet
and
key
government
positions
of
the
presidency
to
personalities
on
the
left,
the
green
movement
and
even
chiraquistas,
as
Dominique
de
Villepin
or
Bayrou,
to
capitalize
and
position
himself
as
the
acting
role
in
the
central
and
main
French
political
desk.
Building
the
credibility
of
the
new
president
will
start
cruising
speed.
Like
Spanish
Prime
Minister
Rajoy,
his
popularity
is
very
fragile
and
will
begin
to
drop
rapidly
as
decisions
are
made.
The
Socialists
will
receive
the
anti-­‐Sarkozy
vote
by
the
right
and
left.
This
is
a
not
an
owned
vote,
unenthusiastic
and
unconvinced.
7.
Despite
of
Sarkozy's
lepenization,
will
the
centrist
vote
go
to
the
president?
Lepenization
intensifies
the
idea
of
Sarkozy
support
needed,
fragile
and
weak,
the
desperate,
who
is
facing
a
long
long
the
campaign.
Far
away
from
the
center
but
seeking
complicity
with
lepenism,
which
is
the
3rd
political
force.
Marine
Le
Pen
wants
to
be
the
benchmark
in
the
French
center-­‐right
arena.
So
she
needs
this
electoral
&
social
space
leadership
orphaned.
This
will
exists
with
a
Hollande's.
As
much
as
she
openly
advocates
voting
Hollande,
her
bases
would
not
follow
her.
This
facilitates
the
centrist
vote
elects,
as
a
lesser
evil,
for
Hollande's
option.
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is
partner
&
consultant
at
@ingenia_pro.
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